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[jett]

I have to ask, what's the context behind this gif? What's got this gal all giddy?

 

[Shorty11857]

For anyone who is curious about the no side's argument this is how they see the future

 

[Delusibeta]

Again, if this didn't pass, it would be the biggest fuck-up of a multi-firm national poll on a single issue in a developed western nation since... I don't know.

Remember, the UK was about polling multiple parties around multiple constituencies and it was going to be close, with a conservative lead. The conservatives still won, but more than the polls had anticipated.

This would be something all together different.

I dunno, the consensus pre UK election was for a dead heat for all intents and purposes, and instead we got an outright winner. They also massively underestimated the Lib Dem drubbing and how many votes UKIP got. This was after them whiffing the Scottish Referendum by quite a large margin, too. I would definitely would take any political poll with a large quantity of salt.

 

[ivysaur12]

I dunno, the consensus pre UK election was for a dead heat for all intents and purposes, and instead we got an outright winner. They also massively underestimated the Lib Dem drubbing and how many votes UKIP got. This was after them whiffing the Scottish Referendum by quite a large margin, too. I would definitely would take any political poll with a large quantity of salt.

You've already mentioned elements that would make such an election significantly more complicated to predict than a national, yes or no vote.

This is probably one of the easiest types of questions to polls.

 

[theprodigy]

huh, why are polls elsewhere really bad compared to polls in the US?

 

[ivysaur12]

huh, why are polls elsewhere really bad compared to polls in the US?

They're not, really. Most polls in western nations are pretty decent, just some elections are much more complicated than others. A US election usually only has two candidates versus 4 or 5, meaning the elections are usually much easier to predict.

Similarly, asking people between choice A and B, without any type of parliamentary situation where multiple districts have multiple candidates and those candidates would then need to win order to make up a majority means that it's a much, much simpler issue to poll. Less X factors.

 

[Delusibeta]

You've already mentioned elements that would make such an election significantly more complicated to predict than a national, yes or no vote.

This is probably one of the easiest types of questions to polls.

I also expect both the lazy yessers and the shy nos are both going to be significant factors in the poll, and combined I can quite easily see them represent a 15% swing to No. Admittedly, it's entirely tales from my ass, and I would be more than happy to eat crow on this one, but my ass has a bad feeling about this vote.

 

[8 X 11 Printer Paper]

Northern Ireland needs to be cut out.

Cutting it sadly would cause the issue of showing the trick of how I made Penny's hair that should be appearing in the upper left disappear (Shit would look really choppy/out of place where Northern Ireland was). So the best I can do is just grey it out (nowhere near exact since that would require me to start from scratch and I'm lazy)

 

[ivysaur12]

I also expect both the lazy yessers and the shy nos are both going to be significant factors in the poll, and combined I can quite easily see them represent a 15% swing to No. Admittedly, it's entirely tales from my ass, and I would be more than happy to eat crow on this one, but my ass has a bad feeling about this vote.

Even a 15% swing (which would be radical) wouldn't be enough to bring 70% down to 49%.

 

[Gorger]

I'm just going to post this too, which my GF took this morning.

 

[Delusibeta]

Even a 15% swing (which would be radical) wouldn't be enough to bring 70% down to 49%.

No, but it would make for a far more interesting Saturday afternoon on RTE One.

And besides, if I'm expecting a 15% No swing, that does make a 20% swing and an outright No win plausible. As I said, tales from my ass.

 

[Link]

Even a 15% swing (which would be radical) wouldn't be enough to bring 70% down to 49%.

How about the ones that are just lying about how they'll vote? After all, being called a bigot is worse than actually being a bigot to a lot of people.

 

[Messi]

I'll do my part for the YES tomorrow.

 

[Gorger]

I have full confidence in Ireland on this one. Good luck IrishGaf!

 

[ivysaur12]

No, but it would make for a far more interesting Saturday on RTE.

And besides, if I'm expecting a 15% No swing, that does make a 20% swing and an outright No win plausible. As I said, tales from my ass.

Right, I mean, it's certainly in the realm of possibility, but nothing so far would suggest as much. And being pessimistic for pessimism's sake, even if it's well-intentioned, seems silly.

I think the right feeling is to be cautiously optimistic, because based on the data presented and almost all experts, it should almost certainly pass.

How about the ones that are just lying about how they'll vote? After all, being called a bigot is worse than actually being a bigot to a lot of people.

Polls called the issue almost to the point in Maine, Maryland, Minnesota, and Washington in 2012. There's no evidence that there's a "Bradley Effect" anymore. Even Prop 8 polls mostly got it right, though a lot of people on the left had a more selective reading of certain pollsters over the aggregate.

 

[Link]

Right, I mean, it's certainly in the realm of possibility, but nothing so far would suggest as much. And being pessimistic for pessimism's sake, even if it's well-intentioned, seems silly.

I think the right feeling is to be cautiously optimistic, because based on the data presented and almost all experts, it should almost certainly pass.

I'm 0/2 with cautious optimism this year.

 

[Delusibeta]

Right, I mean, it's certainly in the realm of possibility, but nothing so far would suggest as much. And being pessimistic for pessimism's sake, even if it's well-intentioned, seems silly.

I think the right feeling is to be cautiously optimistic, because based on the data presented and almost all experts, it should almost certainly pass.

Better to expect the worst and be happily surprised, than the opposite, imo.

 

[ivysaur12]

I'm 0/2 with cautious optimism this year.

But looking at the data, there's actually little reason to be concerned. This isn't a UK situation. It's actually a very simple issue to poll, and one that, at least in America, has shown a good correlation recently between poll results and actual election results.

Better to expect the worst and be happily surprised, than the opposite, imo.

Eh, I find liberal chicken littleing is tiring, especially against data.

 

[CadetMahoney]

BUT I THOUGHT IRELAND WAS LIKE SUPER CATHOLIC?

http://www.religionnews.com/2015/05/20/irelands-gay-marriage-referendum-sign-roman-catholic-decline/

When Ireland still bans abortion I doubt "what young people think = laws" will work. I bet a lot of young ppl also don't mind abortion either, but those opinions won't matter on that issue.

If they allow gay marriage it's because the powers that be don't mind or have their hands forced in respect to a wider arch of issues and legalities surrounding the EU.

They're not gonna punish or treat gay couples who are legally married in other EU countries differently, because they know they can't get away with that. So they have to let it happen.

 

[Poltergust]

Hopefully Ireland is not nearly as apathetic when it comes to voting as America is.

I'm just going to post this too, which my GF took this morning.

..."State protected species"...?

I have no words.

 

[ivysaur12]

When Ireland still bans abortion I doubt "what young people think = laws" will work. I bet a lot of young ppl also don't mind abortion either, but those opinions won't matter on that issue.

If they allow gay marriage it's because the powers that be don't mind or have their hands forced in respect to a wider arch of issues and legalities surrounding the EU.

They're not gonna punish or treat gay couples who are legally married in other EU countries differently, because they know they can't get away with that. So they have to let it happen.

Well, it's quite likely that there will be a referendum on abortion in Ireland in the coming years. A lot of what is happening now in Ireland is cleaning up a rather draconian constitution.

 

[Prez]

If it's not required for everyone to vote, I don't think this will pass. Most supportive people aren't passionate enough about the issue to go out and vote, while most people against it are.

 

[Spaced Harrier]

Cutting it sadly would cause the issue of showing the trick of how I made Penny's hair that should be appearing in the upper left disappear (Shit would look really choppy/out of place where Northern Ireland was). So the best I can do is just grey it out (nowhere near exact since that would require me to start from scratch and I'm lazy)

Cut out Donegal while you're at it.

So couple of things in the thread:
Marriage is a civil right, not human. Freedom of association is a human right. (intimate association
Access to abortion is a human right iissue(autonomy over the body)
Gay marriage is not currently "illegal" it just isn't a status available.
Abortions are illegal, you would go to jail.
Young Irish people simply aren't catholic (even if they say they are!) ( or their mother says so on the census)
and Yes will win by a landslide (except Donegal)
All the money from the no campaign comes from America
Its not the EU forcing the politicians (wtf? where did that come from?)
Though there is huge political grandstanding and bandwagoning. Its good timing and everyone comes off well from it. (some of these pricks voted against Divorce 20 years ago!)
Old people aren't all going to vote no! (though of course are more likely to)
Turn out's going to be big

And last but not least in a massive display of irony the other referendum (yes there is two) is going to fail.

Ireland is going to reject the referendum to allow people under 35 to run for President (ceremonial role) Yes Equality!

 

[Slightly Live]

Cutting it sadly would cause the issue of showing the trick of how I made Penny's hair that should be appearing in the upper left disappear (Shit would look really choppy/out of place where Northern Ireland was). So the best I can do is just grey it out (nowhere near exact since that would require me to start from scratch and I'm lazy)

Not perfect, but true.

 

[ivysaur12]

Polls are open.

 

[Dazzler]

I'm predicting 60-40 margin of victory for yes

Make me proud fellow Irish brothers and sisters

 

[Joni]

So no, I completely and utterly reject the notion of pure majority rule. That would be a world I would never want to live in. Life is miserable enough for many LGBT people in a political system that has checks and protections from that in the court system.

Yet at the same time, gay marriage would be legal in the entire United States since 2011 if it was voted by the majority according to Pew and Gallup. Same-sex marriage acceptance versus interracial marriages shows not only a problem of relying on public opinion, but it also shows a political class that has gone from very much ahead of the curve on social issues to one that is behind the curve. As again, the political class is still actively stopping gay marriage. It is courts deciding that they can't actually do that. If you counted on politicians, you wouldn't have gay marriage at all. If you counted on majority rules, you'd have it nationwide since 2011. If you count on the courts, you might have it in 2015-2016.

 

[Seraphiel]

This has to be someone with a sense of humour rather than a genuine no poster, surely? :L

We have a fantastic sense of humour, that is funny.


As firm believer in the ideals behind the Republic proclaimed in 1916, a yes vote is the right vote.

Equality for all.

 

[Higgins113]

Come on lads, it's really all about the presidents age.

 

[Seraphiel]

Northern Ireland needs to be cut out.

As an all Ireland advocate I hate that it needs to be done.

Unfortunately the largest party, the DUP are some of the most backwards people around. No gay marriage, total gay blood ban, targeting gay adoption ...... these people boycotted Harry Potter for witchcraft and are new earth creationists.


Bunch of morons.

 

[A Fish Aficionado]

How is it?

 

[TheOnlyOneHeEverFeared]

And voted yes. I feel so democratic.

 

[tomtom94]

As an all Ireland advocate I hate that it needs to be done.

Unfortunately the largest party, the DUP are some of the most backwards people around. No gay marriage, total gay blood ban, targeting gay adoption ...... these people boycotted Harry Potter for witchcraft and are new earth creationists.


Bunch of morons.

what

 

[Hank Scorpio]

Also, fuck the Iona "Institute" and everything about it.

Always wondered about them. Who funds them etc. David Quinn is a rather irritating guy.

Had no idea only USA, Australia, and Norn Iron didn't have marriage equality.

Anyway, going to vote Yes later.

 

[Dougald]

I'm just going to post this too, which my GF took this morning.

Number 8 seems like a pretty good reason to vote yes

 

[HazySaiyan]

Whilst I'm of course glad that this looks like it's going to pass, I'm a little uncomfortable at this issue even being a referendum. The rights of others should not be dictated by popular vote.

 

[SomedayTheFire]

Hope it passes, I really do. I fear for what will happen if it doesn't. IT's going to be close anyway.

Always wondered about them. Who funds them etc. David Quinn is a rather irritating guy.

Had no idea only USA, Australia, and Norn Iron didn't have marriage equality.

Anyway, going to vote Yes later.

American catholic groups, I believe. Which is ironic because they've spent the last few weeks pretending to be victims and giving out that Yes Equality is being funded by Americans. Glass houses and all that.

 

[danthefan]

The majority vote is not the way to go when deciding the fate of minority groups. Specially when they're not the ones suffering the discrimination.

Human rights shouldn't be up for popular vote.

There is no other way to change the constitution in Ireland. The govt of the day can't do it, has to be a referendum.

When Ireland still bans abortion I doubt "what young people think = laws" will work. I bet a lot of young ppl also don't mind abortion either, but those opinions won't matter on that issue.

If they allow gay marriage it's because the powers that be don't mind or have their hands forced in respect to a wider arch of issues and legalities surrounding the EU.

They're not gonna punish or treat gay couples who are legally married in other EU countries differently, because they know they can't get away with that. So they have to let it happen.

Again you'd need a referendum too legalise abortion and the last time that went to the polls it failed, I can't remember the year now. It's a political minefield that a few governments now have been afraid to touch.

 

[gofreak]

If it didn't pass, it would be one of the biggest upsets in polling in the modern western world, considering the margin of support most polls have predicted. Which, again, unlikely.

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/poli...ded-for-no-side-to-carry-referendum-1.2214674

Ireland has confounded pre referendum polls in the past.

I oscillate between optimism and pessimism on this. I think it will be close. It's been a horrible few weeks, really. I understand why we have this process but in this case it really does open up wounds and surface things in people that you otherwise might not have expected from them.

My stomach is in knots. If you're in Ireland, please go out and vote.

 

[GoonerTRON]

Do the right thing Ireland!

https://youtu.be/HaMq2nn5ac0

 

[Johnny Cage]

Being from Northern Ireland it really annoys me that the DUP make us all seem like neanderthals in the eyes of the world. I know for a fact that the majority of people my age (22) would support this act.

 

[Sephiroth503]

My heart thinks it will be a yes but my head says it will be no.

The No campaign in the last week or so has managed to turn the vote into a "Freedom of Conscience" and "Anti-Bullying/Don't be silenced" vote which could turn things.

Mind you the feeling of bullying and persecution would have a lot to do with the fact that the Yes campaign and vote appears so strong.

Fingers crossed my heart is right.

 

[WolfForager]

Would be voting Yes if I was in the country today, but alas I am in Germany.

Hopefully my fellow countrymen don't fuck this up.

 

[GoonerTRON]

Would be voting Yes if I was in the country today, but alas I am in Germany.

Hopefully my fellow countrymen don't fuck this up.

No voting abroad for referendums?

 

[anonymous_abc]

For anyone who is curious about the no side's argument this is how they see the future

lol, nice.

Good going with this my Irish sisters and brothers!

 

[mclem]

..."State protected species"...?

I have no words.

Of all the offensiveness on that page, that's the one that sticks out as particularly horrific.

To the extent that it makes me think it must be a parody, but I'm not inclined to go to that URL to find out.

 

[Zeouterlimits]

That edited Simpsons gifs is one of my favourite bits of comedy from this whole.. journey.

No voting abroad for referendums?

Nope. You also can not have been gone for more than 18 months.
Lots of people flying home for it.

Good graph of how divorce only passed by 9000 votes :

 

[Tuffty]

Being from Northern Ireland it really annoys me that the DUP make us all seem like neanderthals in the eyes of the world. I know for a fact that the majority of people my age (22) would support this act.

I'd agree with that. It's mainly the older generation that lets us down. Look at the debacle around the Asher's gay cake case, where politicians get involved with it and it makes me embarrased of the country frankly.

 

[Gravy Boat]

If Ireland passes this referendum (which looks likely), The United States, Australia, and Northern Ireland will be the only developed, English-speaking countries in the world without marriage equality. And since it's extremely likely the Supreme Court of the United States will rule next month to strike down all gay marriage bans in the country (effectively legalizing gay marriage), that will leave Australia and Northern Ireland.

We only just decided that we're allowed to bake cakes for gay people, one step at a time.

This is good though. Hopefully it won't be long before we catch up.

 

[squidyj]

I'm just going to post this too, which my GF took this morning.

i think there is exactly one thing that is correct there.

"Many will never accept it"