Even if Shenmue III were a reality now, its hard to forgive the blasphemy that is Shenmue Online. With that and Shining Force Neo, Sega can rot in hell for all I care. :lol Apparently, Sega likes forgetting what makes their games good just to piss their fans off.
Shenmue III appear in all events as something possible, it´s the "joker" of the gossips in any event. So there is a chance that it can be true sometime...
I don´t think Sega have the resources now to do Shenmue 3 or that Microsoft is intereted on it as it´s main title to show it at CES. In fact we will be lucky if we see some Xenon real software at CES, I doubt it.
(On a serious note, I feel sorry for Yu Suzuki. What has happened to the former Wizard from AM2? One of the legends is worryingly absent from anything in the biz at the moment. A Shenmue3 would be sweet but its all in the hands of Sammy now...)