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[Sickboy007]

Shamelessly grabbed from Wikipedia:

A constitutional referendum is being held in Italy on Sunday 4 December 2016. Voters are being asked whether they approve a constitutional law that amends the Italian Constitution to reform the composition and powers of the Parliament of Italy, as well as the division of powers between the State, the Regions, and administrative entities.
The bill, put forward by the Prime Minister, Matteo Renzi, and his centre-left Democratic Party, was first introduced by the government in the Senate on 8 April 2014.

Should the voters approve the constitutional law, it would achieve the most extensive constitutional reform in Italy since the end of the monarchy, not only influencing the organization of the Parliament, but also improving, according to its proponents, on the poor government stability of the country. Opposition parties have harshly criticised the bill, claiming that it is poorly written and that it will make the government too powerful.

The first results will come in in half an hour (11PM local time). Renzi (Democratic Party) has staked his Premiership on a YES vote, while all the other major parties, including Silvio Berlusconi's Forza Italia, the anti-immigrant Lega Nord, and comedian-led Movimento 5 Stelle have campaigned for a NO vote.

The polls have shown a significant lead for NO, and a defeat for Renzi could mean further political turmoil in the Eurozone, of which Italy is the third-largest economy.

This is the question on the ballot:

And here is the turnout map at 7pm:

 

[Bedameister]

If Austria can do it you can too Italy. Please don't fuck this up.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

That map is brutal for Renzi. The north out in full force tonight! Don't think he'll carry this one.

 

[ebullientprism]

How can you look at everything England is going through and go "Yeah I wouldnt mind some of that"?

 

[IlSignorCornetto]

Guys, we will disappoint you.
I'm sorry

 

[SamVimes]

How can you look at everything England is going through and go "Yeah I wouldnt mind some of that"?

This doesn't have anything to do with Brexit.

 

[Frozenprince]

How can you look at everything England is going through and go "Yeah I wouldnt mind some of that"?

No this is about the removal of the far right from Italy. Not Italy from the EU.

 

[Sickboy007]

That map is brutal for Renzi. The north out in full force tonight! Don't think he'll carry this one.

Salvini's big night

 

[Mass_Pincup]

I hope Italia can end 2016 on a good note.

Not looking likely though.

 

[ebullientprism]

This doesn't have anything to do with Brexit.

Sorry. Got confused then. Which EU country is up for a referendum? I thought there was one?

 

[El Topo]

We know the polls before the vote. This is not going to be pretty for Renzi.

Sorry. Got confused then. Which EU country is up for a referendum? I thought there was one?

It's not a "Leave EU" referendum. The thread title refers to Renzi tying his political career to the referendum.

 

[azyless]

Yeah I have no hope for this one.

Sorry. Got confused then. Which EU country is up for a referendum? I thought there was one?

This is a referendum, not about getting out of the EU though. No other country has had their version of "Brexit" for now.

 

[SamVimes]

No this is about the removal of the far right from Italy. Not Italy from the EU.

I'm not really sure what you mean.

Sorry. Got confused then. Which EU country is up for a referendum? I thought there was one?

This is THE referendum, but it's about how our government works. The exaggerated analysis from the British press is for the most part regarding what would happen if this loses and Movimento 5 Stelle wins the next elections.

 

[G.ZZZ]

Seeing that the north is out in full make me think of a NO blowout.

If it's anywhere close, Renzi will win the re-elections probably.

 

[Sickboy007]

If the country goes for NO (which looks likely), this will objectively empower the parties hostile to the EU.

 

[His Majesty]

From what little I read this referendum doesn't really deserve to be painted in the same light as Brexit or Trump.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Sorry. Got confused then. Which EU country is up for a referendum? I thought there was one?

Not at the moment. M5S, the Italian anti-establishment party (not really rightwing, per se, like Trump or Brexit, just antipolitik), wants to leave the Euro, but they're unlikely to win a majority and would be unable to bring it about if they didn't as they don't have plausible partners. At the moment, they're content just being chaosbringers.

 

[johancruijff]

i'm ready for the shitshow

Mentana's on

 

[Eylos]

I want to understand the political situation, why more power to the executive is better? And this part:
"He also wants the senate to be made up of officials such as local politicians from across the country, rather than directly elected."
Is that good?
I'm not judging it, i want to understand only

 

[ClosingADoor]

What's up with southern Italy. Do they usually not turn up there for votes?

 

[Deleted member 231381]

From what little I read this referendum doesn't really deserve to be painted in the same light as Brexit or Trump 2016.

It's not on the same scale, but it is of the same kind. A NO vote would be a massive empowerment for the anti-European forces in Italy.

 

[roytheone]

If the country goes for NO (which looks likely), this will objectively empower the parties hostile to the EU.

Isn't a no basically: we leave it like it is? How can that empower parties?

 

[UrbanRats]

If the country goes for NO (which looks likely), this will objectively empower the parties hostile to the EU.

I think at this point few cared about the Referendum itself, and more about sending "a message" to Renzi.
Given the opposition of Grillo and Salvini though, that's utterly tragic.
The thought of either (well, Grillo not directly) at the helm is genuinely scary.

 

[SamVimes]

Isn't a no basically: we leave it like it is? How can that empower parties?

According to a poll most people think they're voting on whether they like the current government or not, so the opposition gains from a no. The opposition is mostly made up of the worst people in Italy.

 

[UrbanRats]

According to a poll most people think they're voting on whether they like the current government or not, so the opposition gains from a no. The opposition is mostly made up of the worst people in Italy.

Well everyone made their best in these last few weeks, to make this referendum about anything BUT the issue at hand.

 

[Sickboy007]

I want to understand the political situation, why more power to the executive is better? And this part:
"He also wants the senate to be made up of officials such as local politicians from across the country, rather than directly elected."
Is that good?
I'm not judging it, i want to understand only

The referendum doesn't really touch on the powers of the executive, but by limiting the confidence vote to one chamber only it is thought that governments will be more secure.

Speaking of this, Italy is by far the most politically unstable democracy in the G8 (and OCSE for that matter, if you discount Turkey).

 

[ClosingADoor]

Isn't a no basically: we leave it like it is? How can that empower parties?

Italy needs to modernize it's government because the current way it is handled is ineffective.

Renzi is also a pro-EU guy, so voting against him will be a boost for the anti-EU parties.

 

[SecretMoblin]

smh giving salvini a win on a silver platter

ben fatto

 

[roytheone]

According to a poll most people think they're voting on whether they like the current government or not, so the opposition gains from a no. The opposition is mostly made up of the worst people in Italy.

Ugh, I hate it when referendums get hijackt and gets transformed into a vote about something completely different. Like, what if you are against this change, but also are against the opposition? What do you vote then?

 

[UrbanRats]

The referendum doesn't really touch on the powers of the executive, but by limiting the confidence vote to one chamber only it is thought that governments will be more secure.

Speaking of this, Italy is by far the most politically unstable democracy in the G8 (and OCSE for that matter, if you discount Turkey).

Craxi, Andreotti and Berlusconi in the lead.
Lovely.

 

[ClosingADoor]

Ugh, I hate it when referendums get hijackt and gets transformed into a vote about something completely different. Like, what if you are against this change, but also are against the opposition? What do you vote then?

Isn't this pretty much every referendum in the EU lately. People don't vote over the actual issue, but to sent a "message".

 

[SamVimes]

Well everyone made their best in these last few weeks, to make this referendum about anything BUT the issue at hand.

For as much as I dislike Renzi I gotta say he impressed me in a positive way during the debates, always tried to keep them on topic. Of course he did the idiotic thing of announcing he was gonna resign so...

 

[Eylos]

The referendum doesn't really touch on the powers of the executive, but by limiting the confidence vote to one chamber only it is thought that governments will be more secure.

Speaking of this, Italy is by far the most politically unstable democracy in the G8 (and OCSE for that matter, if you discount Turkey).

Holy shit this pic

 

[Nikodemos]

Is Southern Italy sparsely populated or what? There's quite the disconnect between it and the Northern part.

For as much as I dislike Renzi I gotta say he impressed me in a positive way during the debates, always tried to keep them on topic. Of course he did the idiotic thing of announcing he was gonna resign so...

Yeah, that's a major league fuck-up and massive political mistake. Never make anything about your person. Otherwise a bunch of assholes are going to come out of the woodwork just to see you burn.

 

[Sickboy007]

First exit poll:

YES 41-45

NO 55-59

 

[Gurgelhals]

I want to understand the political situation, why more power to the executive is better? And this part:
"He also wants the senate to be made up of officials such as local politicians from across the country, rather than directly elected."
Is that good?
I'm not judging it, i want to understand only

Afaik, the problem with the current system is that the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies have exactly equal powers and every bill has to go back and forth until both chambers agree to it down to every minute detail. Now, while this "perfect bicameralism" sounds good on paper (it's a form of checks and balances, after all), in practice it has tended to paralyze the entire legislative process.

The reform intends to weaken the powers of the senate and also restricting it to 100 members (instead of the >300 members it currently has), making it more of a chamber that represents the regions and whose members are to be elected by the regional councils (akin to the German Federal Council).

First exit poll:

YES 41-45

NO 55-59

Well, I guess that's the end of the Renzi government :-/ You gotta give it to him that, for Italian standards, he managed to hang in quite a bit at least.

 

[G.ZZZ]

I want to understand the political situation, why more power to the executive is better? And this part:
"He also wants the senate to be made up of officials such as local politicians from across the country, rather than directly elected."
Is that good?
I'm not judging it, i want to understand only

Because in large parts it would remove powers from the regions, which make about half of all legal amminstrative litigations in the country (debates betweens states and regions about sovereignity on certain issues).

Also in Italy we have two chambers with identical functions (Camera and Senato are the same), so any law that is proposed has to be voted by both and can be amended by both or vetoed by both. This referendum essentially make those two chambers in just one (Camera) and create a new local-representative chambers which would vote only on issues about regions, constitutional laws and agreements with the EU, and for the Presidente della Repubblica (Which is a mostly representative figure). The new Senato would be home to Region Presidents and Major of Grandi Comuni iirc (think larger cities), which are still directly elected by citizens. It's not directly elective to the Senate, just indirectly. We also don't actually vote for anyone right now to go in the Senato because of how the name list system work (basically there's a list of names and non-name votes go to the top of the list, making it so it's always the name presented by the party as first on the list to get actually elected). I struggle to think of a time when you actually could vote for anyone. The "names on the ballot" in Italy has always has been a shitshow that in the end worked up so that political parties always decided who would get elected anyway.

EDIT: i see the NO won by a landslide. Welp, time for Russia to win another election, fml.

 

[Eylos]

Afaik, the problem with the current system is that the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies have exactly equal powers and every bill has to go back and forth until both chambers agree to it down to every minute detail. Now, while this "perfect bicameralism" sounds good on paper (it's a form of checks and balances, after all), in practice it has tended to paralyze the entire legislative process.

The reform intends to weaken the powers of the senate and also restricting it to 100 members (instead of the >300 members it currently has), making it more of a chamber that represents the regions and whose members are to be elected by the regional councils (akin to the German Federal Council).

Thx now i understand.

 

[Frankfurter]

First exit poll:

YES 41-45

NO 55-59

Are exit polls usually reliable in Italy? Because this sounds like it's Over.

 

[Sickboy007]

Are exit polls usually reliable in Italy? Because this sounds like it's Over.

To a degree, but this is a YES/NO vote so it should be simpler.

 

[Bedameister]

First exit poll:

YES 41-45

NO 55-59

So No won I guess *sigh*

 

[johancruijff]

Cerasa's already on suicide watch

 

[El Topo]

Are exit polls usually reliable in Italy? Because this sounds like it's Over.

The polls before the election were very one-sided as well.

 

[chadskin]

To a degree, but this is a YES/NO vote so it should be simpler.

Referenda are usually harder to get right because there's no historical data for pollsters to lean on.

Alberto Nardelli said a couple of hours ago: https://twitter.com/albertonardelli/status/805328862020308992

1. A suggestion: ignore exit polls, instant polls etc - historically, they are not very good. Wait for actual results

We'll see.

Results will come in here: http://elezioni.interno.it/referendum/scrutini/20161204/FX01000.htm

 

[G.ZZZ]

2016 was such a good year to celebrate my thirties

 

[Sickboy007]

So, Renzi is supposed to make a speech at midnight.

Will he announce his resignation right away? New electoral law for the Senate and elections? Caretaker government?

I guess it doesn't depend on him anymore, the Democratic Party is a nest of vipers.

 

[johancruijff]

Salvini's already giving a speech

 

[SamVimes]

So, Renzi is supposed to make a speech at midnight.

Will he announce his resignation right away? New electoral law for the Senate and elections? Caretaker government?

I guess it doesn't depend on him anymore, the Democratic Party is a nest of vipers.

That's what I'm most worried about. PD is gonna self destroy like they always do and while mediocre might be too generous a word for them they're still better than the alternatives.

 

[Jezbollah]

Woof.

I have my absentee ballot at home, given I do not live in Italy I don't feel I understood enough about the reforms and life in general with regards to Italian politics to make an informed decision.

From what I have learned, a lot of Renzi's supporters may have voted No fearing that added centralised power would aid Grillo + co - by voting as such they may have done just that.

 

[Sickboy007]

For the people saying this has nothing to do with brexit...Salvini is already on tv saying this is a victory of the people against the global establishment, bankers, journalists.