industrian
will gently cradle you as time slowly ticks away.
onken said:
He'll be back.
Italy Bond Yields Spike, Bankruptcy Looms
- Thread starter zomgbbqftw
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He'll be back.
Kabouter said:
If anything when the peripheral economies leave the Euro the Euro will strengthen and your purchasing power will be even greater abroad.
But those of you with Euro deposits in Peripheral economies remember that in theory* if your country leaves the Euro and adopts its own currency then the purchasing power of your new currency relative to the goods and services bought and sold within your country should remain the same. The only problem is that goods and services purchased abroad (ie imported) will increase in real terms.
*nb. in theory
RJT said:
Besides, this would equally be a problem for Germany here, their current strength would falter if the Deutsche Mark would have to rise (or rather, skyrocket) in a free multi-currency european market. That would be a serious hit in their export volumes.
As much as I can see the current issues with Euro, I cannot imagine dropping it would benefit ANY country in the Eurozone, even if we maintain a free open-market.
Let the BCE roll the paper-print and shit money out, jeez, a reasonnable controlled inflation is 1000 x better than drowning economies (and I am not only saying that because I have a fix mortgage in Belgium, where salary is bound to the inflation index
).maniac-kun
Member
At least i have Skyrim when the eurozone collapses.
D
Deleted member 1235
Unconfirmed Member
I have some of my house savings in kiwibucks. Gets 5.1% interest on a year term deposit.Kabouter said:
I wouldn't recommend that though, because it fluctuates like a bastard and everytime some southern european country has a bad day it drops by another cent.
industrian
will gently cradle you as time slowly ticks away.
Meadows said:
I'm sure Tom Clancy's got a bunch of ghost writers on it already.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Meadows said:
We move back to an EEC type agreement. Free trade, no bullshit politics. Eastern Europe will be fine, they are growing their economies faster than Western Europe an without being hamstrung by an overly strong Euro they will grow even faster like the Asian tigers.
Europe doesn't have the appetite for war, or the money to be honest.
Communism? Seems more likely at this point that Lega Nord, Front National, Jobbik and the likes will be the big winners in the end.Meadows said:
I could see the Serbs making a stab at reclaiming Kosovo if they see other European nations as being too hamstrung and/or apathetic to do anything about it. Although I'm not sure if the Serbs even want that place backzomgbbqftw said:
Exactly. We need to keep the Euro and have proper elected European institutions. The current European Parliament elections are a sham that is only used to punish local governments. Fuck thinking locally. I want to vote for an European President.Micerider said:Besides, this would equally be a problem for Germany here, their current strength would falter if the Deutsche Mark would have to rise (or rather, skyrocket) in a free multi-currency european market. That would be a serious hit in their export volumes.
As much as I can see the current issues with Euro, I cannot imagine dropping it would benefit ANY country in the Eurozone, even if we maintain a free open-market.
Let the BCE roll the paper-print and shit money out, jeez, a reasonnable controlled inflation is 1000 x better than drowning economies (and I am not only saying that because I have a fix mortgage in Belgium, where salary is bound to the inflation index
Meadows said:
Ideology != currency. It would not prevent from building common policies and overruling supranational laws but the financial aspect would just be a complete mess, preventing a sound management of a grouped economy.
If the Euro falls, that's probably another worl-wide scale crisis ahead.
Which is kinda ironic, as the current situation has been partly builded up on the ashes of the 2008 mortgage crisis (Euro states backing-up banks back then has dramatically increased their debt and exposition).
Everything is linked...
zomgbbqftw
Banned
jorma said:
Yes but I have heard the government are looking a new higher rate of capital gains tax on property based investments so rent would be taxed at 40% rather than 18-28%. They want to get the market moving for first time buyers and reduce buy-to-let.
industrian
will gently cradle you as time slowly ticks away.
Bento said:
Communism and Fascism are two sides of the same populist coin.
Acidote
Member
Kabouter said:Yeah, because that's stopped Europe in the past.
Spain has done that a lot of times up until the 19th Century hah.
defel1111 said:
In Spain it's not irrational, it's a fucking madness to invest in properties. Prices have fallen and are expected to plummet, we only don't know when as banks are sustaining artificial prices on the market so they can hide their higher debt.
The problem with this whole EU sheaningans is more politic than economical, as strange as it may sound. The Northern countries took a way too much technical approach in relation to the South, thinking that what was on paper and state reports was an accurate depiction of the conomic situation. Southern Europe has big "system B" underground economies but most importantly, a huge clientelist network.
Said clientelist network takes different forms on each country depending on their cultural and historical background: state - paid unions in Greece, Southern Italy subventions, two bajillion regional administrations in Spain, and so on. Said clientelist networks have drained the Southern Europe's economies and budgets, away from the official papers. When Europe tackled the overspending, it sadly focused, yet again, on facts based on accounts rather than on the ground. Fearing to be seen as "invading the national soverign" of said countries, Europe has tried to shy away for the most politically - costly solutions (take on the clientelism) and turned instead, and that's a huge problem.
Europe needs to do the following:
1- Intervene on the ground. Stop listening to southern europe goverment reports and technical comissions. Steps like the permanent "troika" monitoring group on Greece is a step into the good direction, but an insufficient one.
2- Fuck national sovereign: force from Europe the structural political reforms that each case - specific country needs and that their politicians will never carry on. In short: shot down the whole "taxpayer money buying votes" mechanism parasiting Southern Europe's econmies. Silvio will not do it. Zapatero will not do it. Papandreu will not do it. They would rather put their country welfare services in a pire before losing their costly societal control mechanism. Fuck them in the ass, Brussels:
2.1 - Force Silvio to resign and modify Italy's electoral law in order to avoid parliamentary over fragmentation. In short: reform their ellectoral laws so it becomes a governable country again.
2.2 - End with the whole transfers and clientelar subventions towards Southern Italy
2.3 - Force Spain to unify their bajillion regional administrations that have in some cases multiplied per 17 its bureucratic structures (a small example: we got more than 20 different public TV channels, devoted to suck politicians cocks)
2.4- Force Greece to end with the whole "public servant - political party supporter" parasyte (Greeks have their own word for this creature, but I forgot right now). Use the saved money in this way to restore a little bit of its welfare state so people stop rioting (or riot a little tad less).
2.5 -Create an Europan external anti - corruption task force completely devoted to monitorize Southern Europe politicians. Make European jurisdiction stomp and shit over each countrie's laws so politicians cannot legally firewall theirselves, acting as a "higher instance" than national law systems
3- Force Greece to leave not the Euro, but the ECB. Forcing Greece out of the Euro would plunge the country into a huge humanitarian crisis (how the hell are you going to buy fuel with the Dracma?), and we don't need that. Greece, however, need to stop borrowing money with the previous ease, and having any kind of saying into the ECB, as little as it might be. Greece status within the EU would be akin similar to the one of Puerto Rico and the US: it might use its coin, but cannot influenciate its political economy nor profit from hipotetical eurobonds or borrowing conditions.
4- Stop "bailing out" countries. You are not bailing out Greece. You are bailing out the failed investments of German and French banks (Greek bonds). If you want to sanitize the European banking system, you need to let toxic assets to burst into flames already instead of supporting them trought public cash. See also the 50% Greek debt haircut: as opposed to the whole narrative of how the world was going to end, the only good move in this crisis produced a market rebound.
5- Stop shitting around, create an unified eurobond and proper European Central bank with a common fiscal policy, able to enforce laws and legislation over any kind of European country that uses said bonds.
In short: the solution is more Europe, and less pampering local politicians and fueling credit bubbles with public cash.
Said clientelist network takes different forms on each country depending on their cultural and historical background: state - paid unions in Greece, Southern Italy subventions, two bajillion regional administrations in Spain, and so on. Said clientelist networks have drained the Southern Europe's economies and budgets, away from the official papers. When Europe tackled the overspending, it sadly focused, yet again, on facts based on accounts rather than on the ground. Fearing to be seen as "invading the national soverign" of said countries, Europe has tried to shy away for the most politically - costly solutions (take on the clientelism) and turned instead, and that's a huge problem.
Europe needs to do the following:
1- Intervene on the ground. Stop listening to southern europe goverment reports and technical comissions. Steps like the permanent "troika" monitoring group on Greece is a step into the good direction, but an insufficient one.
2- Fuck national sovereign: force from Europe the structural political reforms that each case - specific country needs and that their politicians will never carry on. In short: shot down the whole "taxpayer money buying votes" mechanism parasiting Southern Europe's econmies. Silvio will not do it. Zapatero will not do it. Papandreu will not do it. They would rather put their country welfare services in a pire before losing their costly societal control mechanism. Fuck them in the ass, Brussels:
2.1 - Force Silvio to resign and modify Italy's electoral law in order to avoid parliamentary over fragmentation. In short: reform their ellectoral laws so it becomes a governable country again.
2.2 - End with the whole transfers and clientelar subventions towards Southern Italy
2.3 - Force Spain to unify their bajillion regional administrations that have in some cases multiplied per 17 its bureucratic structures (a small example: we got more than 20 different public TV channels, devoted to suck politicians cocks)
2.4- Force Greece to end with the whole "public servant - political party supporter" parasyte (Greeks have their own word for this creature, but I forgot right now). Use the saved money in this way to restore a little bit of its welfare state so people stop rioting (or riot a little tad less).
2.5 -Create an Europan external anti - corruption task force completely devoted to monitorize Southern Europe politicians. Make European jurisdiction stomp and shit over each countrie's laws so politicians cannot legally firewall theirselves, acting as a "higher instance" than national law systems
3- Force Greece to leave not the Euro, but the ECB. Forcing Greece out of the Euro would plunge the country into a huge humanitarian crisis (how the hell are you going to buy fuel with the Dracma?), and we don't need that. Greece, however, need to stop borrowing money with the previous ease, and having any kind of saying into the ECB, as little as it might be. Greece status within the EU would be akin similar to the one of Puerto Rico and the US: it might use its coin, but cannot influenciate its political economy nor profit from hipotetical eurobonds or borrowing conditions.
4- Stop "bailing out" countries. You are not bailing out Greece. You are bailing out the failed investments of German and French banks (Greek bonds). If you want to sanitize the European banking system, you need to let toxic assets to burst into flames already instead of supporting them trought public cash. See also the 50% Greek debt haircut: as opposed to the whole narrative of how the world was going to end, the only good move in this crisis produced a market rebound.
5- Stop shitting around, create an unified eurobond and proper European Central bank with a common fiscal policy, able to enforce laws and legislation over any kind of European country that uses said bonds.
In short: the solution is more Europe, and less pampering local politicians and fueling credit bubbles with public cash.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Kabouter said:Yeah, because that's stopped Europe in the past
True! I think that would be true before we had a globalised economy, right now munitions and armaments would require massive imports and I can't see the rest of the world supplying France with raw materials if they decided to go to war with Italy to retrieve their banking debts.
Yeah, it's mostly been Spain and France. Again and again too. We've only defaulted once afaik, and that was because of the Bonapartes.Acidote said:
It doesn't take that many weapons to inflict a major defeat on Italyzomgbbqftw said:
darkwing said:
Yeah, The Fed has been quite fast on the quantitative easing to leek money all around, but this is an easier decision to take when you have ONE government (although one might see this as a damage-control that might not hold it for long). When you have multiple Governements with each their own interests fighting over a commong decision...man, that's not nice and easy.
The solution is there : ONE economy (because that is actually what the Euro-zone is, despite what all local powers would say), ONE Governing institution. We have to let it flow, the heavy, conflictual administrative nightmare that are European institutions is probably the Lock that is still preventing anything to happen properly.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Kabouter said:
Britain has never defaulted!
It would for France.
Ikael said:
Every actor in this sickening game is a product of the same system. Any of the outlined steps above is a) local political suicide and b) jepordises their place at the trough which is the nexus of public and private capital. They are career political entities, they do no exist to exact change only to engorge themselves on the fruits of a power positions and are as such incapable and out of self preservation unwilling to make the structural changes that endanger their power and wealth generating exercises.
There is no longer a political solution to this situation. People must take a far more direct role in shaping national policy and that is not going to be an easy task.
More Fun To Compute
Member
Gallbaro said:
If they are capitalists then they are probably for letting them fail but nobody believes that idealistic capitalism junk so they will be probably be saved in some way.
darkwing said:
As has been pointed out already printing money is against the German constitution and it would probably require EU treaty changes which would trigger referenda and all kinds of shit. Printing money is the solution IMO but the EU is just not able to implement it with the same ease as a normal government.
That's because the United Kingdom hasn't existed that long, England on the other hand did default several timeszomgbbqftw said:Britain has never defaulted!
.Not sure, historically France has been pretty damn good at war, just not recently. Then again, they haven't had an opponent as weak as Italy in a major war for some time!It would for France.
Almost certainly for. OWS doesn't especially care for bail-outs.Gallbaro said:
radioheadrule83
Banned
Micerider said:
Essentially sort of what I was saying.
The Euro is a single currency, but tied to a Union of nations with no pan-European electoral representation. The Euro and the market for the currency is effectively controlled by a cabal of nations with vested interests.
I disagree with the post above that made this sound like a 'Southern Europe' problem, and implied the solution was to scapegoat them and surveil them for being corrupt, overly-beaurocratic arseholes or something... that isn't the solution at all. The solution is to shit or get off the pot. Manage this currency as a Federalist union of nations would -- in which case you need elective representation and central bank that doesn't just do things when Germany and France need it done. That means you'd need to have more say in sovereign matters, more tentacles down in the weeds of each nation in order to better inform economic policy. I just feel like it's either that or give up the experiment / let people leave.
Even at the start of the Euro, the economies involved weren't exactly on a level playing field or compatible, everyone going into this should have been prepared to see it through, help each other manage it properly and look out for one another. Instead, its anything but centralised, anything but organised on a European level, and the power inequity among member nations is blindingly obvious.
Full-retard on Federalisation, or go back to the drawing board and find a way to make the Euro work. That secondary currency idea someone mentioned on the last page is interesting... don't know how workable it is...
RJT said:
I was kidding though, but I wouldn't be open to a Iberian country. A bit is due to historical reasons but also because I would be scared of seeing Portugal absorbed by Spanish culture, language etc. and lose it's identity. Maybe I'd be more open to it if Spain as an entity seized to exist and was split up into Catalonia, Basque Country, Galicia, etc.
It would indeed be a period of immense pain for all, that's certainly true. I think however that you're seriously underestimating the length of that period. I mean, let's be honest, letting the entire system crash would cause a European depression. You don't recover from that within any reasonable timeframe, and you're not necessarily better off afterwards.Gallbaro said:
D
Deleted member 1235
Unconfirmed Member
If the whole euro land goes toxic then i'm just going to add my bills to it and run away to NZ. requests for the money I owe will be met with stern lols.
Don't make me do it EU, I love it here.
EDIT: Kabouter when did you get mod duties?
Don't make me do it EU, I love it here.
EDIT: Kabouter when did you get mod duties?
Karma Kramer
Banned
Wonder what the US market is gonna do today...
Napalm_Frank
Member
I don't think we want to D:Woz said:
radioheadrule83 said:
Secundary currency would scare the shit out off investors, the referencial would be too blurry to garantee a solid assessment of the assets' worth.
Secundary currency is something that might work pretty well on a very small-scale level (we are speaking neightbourood, at max a town) to encourage local activity, not for large scale economicaly speaking.
Pai Pai Master
Banned
cyberheater said:
If only. Socialism is evil, man. America would rather elect a gay Muslim president than accept that the global economy can't support individual capitalist bubbles.
This news can't be good for a lot of you guys over there. Stay strong.
Gallbaro said:
They either want the banks to fail, and let new banks fill the demand, or nationalizing the banks.
There's a split over which course is better. No one wants another bailout, especially since they believe (correctly) that the banks tightened the credit market for taxpayers after taxpayers bailed them out.
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