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[PdotMichael]

I think you're massively underestimating what we can and will automate if we have the ability to do so. If the current boom in the Internet of Things market continues, there is a high likelihood of even supposedly "human only" jobs being lost. This is effectively what happened during various Industrial Revolutions (lots of people saying Job X or Y couldn't be automated) and it's why so much of the American midwest is a shadow of its former self.

I'm not saying it's going to happen right away, mind you, but it is happening and it continues to accelerate.

And how is that related to population shrinking?

Doesn't help that getting rid of the human factor would just render our actual economic system obsolete and it would get replaced with something else. People will not just lie down and die, what kind of silly sci-fi is that?

 

[Mesoian]

I'd love to move to Japan but the work culture seems to be a huge detriment. Though, there is a lot to love about the country. Learning Japanese is my biggest hump to get over if I really were dedicated to moving.

I love japan, but I'd never want to enter into working climate above small business owner there. Some of those companies just seem like hell on earth to work for and have no interest in changing.

 

[llehuty]

Is this actually a bad thing? I mean, a high population puts enormous strain on the environment and with automation there's less demand for workforce anyway. There are still some pretty big hurdles to overcome, such as an aging demographic, but at one point those lower too because of less births 70 years before that. Growing the population to overcome a growing population seemed doomed to me to begin with. We just need to learn to build an economy around an older workforce.

I'm in this camp.

 

[leatherhat]

Automation = Population needs to decline

Countries that use mass immigration to offset population loss are in for a very rude awakening when jobs like trucking, fast food and housekeeping start being fully automated. Japan is doing it right.

 

[Sumio Mondo]

I'm friends with 5 people from Japan (3 female, 2 male). All of them in their 30s. None of them have kids and aren't wanting any kind of relationship, let alone get married, ever. They're definitely the most asexual bunch on the planet.

 

[Cyrano]

And how is that related to population shrinking?

Doesn't help that getting rid of the human factor would just render our actual economic system obsolete and it would get replaced with something else. People will not just lie down and die, what kind of silly sci-fi is that?

Yeah, I suppose there's a possibility that we just reach a point where resources become scarce enough that war becomes more palatable than co-existence (this will probably happen before we get to a point of full automation, in all likelihood).

As for how it's related to population shrinkage, less jobs is the most direct answer.

 

[SporeCrawler]

i heard that number a few month ago and it is frightening. in tokyo you will see a lot of young people but if you go outside of tokyo to more rural places you really can feel that nobody is there except for the elderly.

Automation = Population needs to decline

Countries that use mass immigration to offset population loss are in for a very rude awakening when jobs like trucking, fast food and housekeeping start being fully automated. Japan is doing it right.

no.. automation is supposed to make everything more efficient so with full automation you could support even more population.

the problem is that automation has not been handled well from a re-distribution perspective so far. since companies dont need to pay wages they should pay higher taxes so that the profits generated from automation can support lower income families.

something like a baseline income would be a solution.

And how is that related to population shrinking?

Doesn't help that getting rid of the human factor would just render our actual economic system obsolete and it would get replaced with something else. People will not just lie down and die, what kind of silly sci-fi is that?

the current problem is like this

no good jobs in the market -> not enough stable income -> young families dont commit themselves to get a baby -> population shrinks

 

[thehypocrite]

Automation = Population needs to decline

Countries that use mass immigration to offset population loss are in for a very rude awakening when jobs like trucking, fast food and housekeeping start being fully automated. Japan is doing it right.

Lol @ implying this is good.

 

[kmax]

The problem is the aging population.

38 per cent will be over the age of 65 in 2065, while children under the age of 14 will consist of barely 10%. There will only be 1.2 people per every person that is over 65 in 2065, a farcry from the the baseline 2.1 to sustain a population.

Japan has tip tapped around immgiration by betting on A.I and more women in the work force, the latter with mix results, as it's insanely difficult to find kindergartens in the big cities. (Which in itself isn't odd, considering how big the biggest Japanese cities are).

There's no easy fix, but laxening on their immigration policy is necessary at some point, because the forecast is unsustainable.

total population (millions). (Japanese National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)

 

[PdotMichael]

i feel like it will take a long time for many countries, particularly in sub saharan africa to develop and reach their zenith

Even the UN, which has a history of overestimating population growth, claims that we will fall down below replacement level until 2100.

 

[nubbe]

Pillows, destroyer of advance society

 

[leatherhat]

Lol @ implying this is good.

Automation isn't good or bad. It is inevitable however.

 

[Zoe]

They need to
1) review their xenophobic culture, and allow/encourage immigration from skilled workers

I thought the problem was more with the rural areas. It's been several years, but I remember something about programs to bring in people from other Asian countries because everyone is fleeing the countryside for the cities.

 

[mbpm1]

This social commentary is about on par with your Street Fighter commentary.

Thats unfair dude

that comment didn't make me fall asleep

 

[Principate]

I think you're massively underestimating what we can and will automate if we have the ability to do so. If the current boom in the Internet of Things market continues, there is a high likelihood of even supposedly "human only" jobs being lost. This is effectively what happened during various Industrial Revolutions (lots of people saying Job X or Y couldn't be automated) and it's why so much of the American midwest is a shadow of its former self.

I'm not saying it's going to happen right away, mind you, but it is happening and it continues to accelerate.

I'm not I'm a Mechanical Engineer. I'm actually part of the people helping to automate those jobs. Here's some stats you may find useful.

This was a study on probabilities of automation

http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf

 

[Royal_Phalanx]

People's livelihoods are getting destroyed, yay! Automation should be considered a terrible thing whilst most countries are not ready for it. Introduce a utopian Basic Income world, sure, go ahead. Countries like Canada and Finland are on the ball and are being innovative. More conservative countries are going to be screwed.

 

[cyress8]

They need to allow more immigration or literally pay people like $100,000 to have children (per child).

I just need a plane ticket.

 

[Cyrano]

I thought the problem was more with the rural areas. It's been several years, but I remember something about programs to bring in people from other Asian countries because everyone is fleeing the countryside for the cities.

Yeah, unfortunately this is a problem everywhere. People, especially young people, are increasingly moving to cities and out of rural areas.

 

[GCX]

Automation = Population needs to decline

Countries that use mass immigration to offset population loss are in for a very rude awakening when jobs like trucking, fast food and housekeeping start being fully automated. Japan is doing it right.

You really think that for instance accepting pretty much zero refugees per year is "doing it right"?

 

[leatherhat]

You really think that for instance accepting pretty much zero refugees per year is "doing it right"?

Yes

 

[GCX]

Yes

On a humanitarian level that's pretty sad.

 

[mbpm1]

On a humanitarian level that's pretty sad.

he wants the global population to decrease so humanitarian is actually against him

 

[thehypocrite]

Automation isn't good or bad. It is inevitable however.

Talking about population shrinkage.

 

[Madness]

Natural selection

Dumb comment? Is it natural selection that the highest birthrate countries are propped up by humanitarian aid and donations when they would collapse and lead to widespread death and famine since they cannot sustain themselves. Japan is just a post industrial nation not offsetting its population decline through mass immigration and migration like the west. Otherwise, every single major developed country is like this.

 

[Darkangel]

Sounds nice from an environmental standpoint.

 

[PdotMichael]

People's livelihoods are getting destroyed, yay! Automation should be considered a terrible thing whilst most countries are not ready for it. Introduce a utopian Basic Income world, sure, go ahead. Countries like Canada and Finland are on the ball and are being innovative. More conservative countries are going to be screwed.

The countries with the highest level of automation are also the richest one. So you can move to one of the non automated paradises anytime.

 

[leatherhat]

Talking about population shrinkage.

Also inevitable in industrialized societies.

 

[Herr Schwarz]

Well, it's not as though they should be shocked should they? What Japanese woman wants to bring a child into Japanese work to death culture?

Looks like not many.

 

[CHC]

Guess everyone will have to work 33% harder!

 

[Royal_Phalanx]

The countries with the highest level of automation are also the richest one. So you can move to one of the non automated paradises anytime.

Didn't say automation was necessarily bad, just that it will be a disaster if countries keep going the way they're going now and don't look at innovative ideas to solve the problem. UK conservative government rejected UBI completely because it "discourages work" for example. Think nationalism is bad enough now? It will get much, much worse if this isn't handled right.

 

[thehypocrite]

Dumb comment? Is it natural selection that the highest birthrate countries are propped up by humanitarian aid and donations when they would collapse and lead to widespread death and famine since they cannot sustain themselves. Japan is just a post industrial nation not offsetting its population decline through mass immigration and migration like the west. Otherwise, every single major developed country is like this.

Do you know what context is? So you are telling me that countries that were plundered merciless are worse off than the plunderers? You don't say!!!!

 

[Epsilon-delta]

A smaller population isn't a problem. A population where a large majority is elderly and relies on pensions to get by is a problem. The level of automation needed to offset that is unlikely to become available quickly enough to prevent a possible collapse.

Mankind needs to stop this constant growth eventually, but simply stopping making babies and letting everyone grow old and feeble isn't exactly a good plan right now.

Well said.

 

[wandering]

Yeah, unfortunately this is a problem everywhere. People, especially young people, are increasingly moving to cities and out of rural areas.

It's happening in America, too. Death of small towns around the country.

 

[TheRealTalker]

Death by purity.

do you see what the sell in Japan?

it ain't purity in the slightest lol

 

[mbpm1]

Write code or get left behind

 

[leatherhat]

Guess everyone will have to work 33% harder!

Even with the population decline unemployment will probably tick upwards. In 2065 the amount of jobs being done by full- blooded humans will be very small.

 

[Creaking]

But what of the otakus?

 

[thehypocrite]

Also inevitable in industrialized societies.

No. You just lack the creativity and ingenuity to see the solutions.

 

[watershed]

Japan, and the government in particular, needs to open up to immigration. Japan isn't even particularly vulnerable to a mass wave of low-skilled immigrants who would disrupt Japanese society or stress their social services. They just need to make becoming a citizen/residency/visa stuff easier and encourage companies to recruit foreign talent. There are a lot of people who want to work and live in Japan.

 

[whyamihere]

They really need to liberalize their immigration laws.

 

[thehypocrite]

do you see what the sell in Japan?

it ain't purity in the slightest lol

That's your perspective. Xenophobic Japan thinks differently.

 

[iRAWRasaurus]

Yeah, unfortunately this is a problem everywhere. People, especially young people, are increasingly moving to cities and out of rural areas.

For real, fuck rural areas.

 

[M3d10n]

But what of the otakus?

The pandas of the 21st century.

 

[Tugatrix]

Inverted Malthusian Curve pretty fascinating the motives why this happen for me are pretty clear, big crowded cities like the Japanese cities + that sociological abjection to affection displays explain part of the problem of young people to relate with one another and in the end we get pretty lonely people with lack of social skills by the millions

 

[thehypocrite]

Even with the population decline unemployment will probably tick upwards. In 2065 the amount of jobs being done by full- blooded humans will be very small.

It almost like all that automation productivity needs a market made off people. 🤔🤔

 

[leatherhat]

No. You just lack the creativity and ingenuity to see the solutions.

Why would you want population increase in a world of automation? And that's not even considering how cramped Japan is.

 

[Cyrano]

I'm not I'm a Mechanical Engineer. I'm actually part of the people helping to automate those jobs. Here's some stats you may find useful.

This was a study on probabilities of automation

http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf

The big assumption in that paper isn't whether or not jobs will be replaced, but this:

The secular price decline in the real cost of computing has created vast economic incentives for employers to substitute labour for computer capital. Yet the tasks computers are able to perform ultimately depend upon the ability of a programmer to write a set of procedures or rules that appropriately direct the technology in each possible contingency.

Why exactly would people not be writing code that writes code? If that's what affects the scale of computerization, it's easily one of the most valuable things you could do, yet the paper you've cited assumes this won't happen. As a person who works in similar research, I'm already quite aware that it is happening and will continue to happen. Virtual AIs that are set to specific tasks will massively improve upon these inefficiencies and solve problems at considerably improved rates. The industrial revolution happened as a result of a few major changes, I think it's safe to assume that a few major changes in current computer technology stand to have similar effects (as the microprocessor, fuzzy logic, etc.). To the paper itself, the standard deviation rates in its own assumptions about computerization are also pretty massive.

 

[leatherhat]

It almost like all that automation productivity needs a market made off people. ����

The idea is to move towards a post scarcity economy. A mass consumption economy like the world has now can not continue. For environmental reasons as well as the sheer impossibility of perpetual population growth.

 

[AntraxSuicide]

People's livelihoods are getting destroyed, yay! Automation should be considered a terrible thing whilst most countries are not ready for it. Introduce a utopian Basic Income world, sure, go ahead. Countries like Canada and Finland are on the ball and are being innovative. More conservative countries are going to be screwed.

This. Automation is inevitable, but a country like Japan will be one of the last to adequately redistribute the gains from it.

Japan will end up with an underclass of citizens who have only small temp jobs, and then maybe a small basic income that keeps you from starving.

 

[1st Course]

It almost like all that automation productivity needs a market made off people. 🤔🤔

Exactly. Most of the economy is based on consumption, esp in developed countries (70% of US GDP is consumption for example). A society can't exist with just machines working.