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[Principate]

Immigration in that necessary scale wouldn't help that much, there aren't hundred thousand of skilled workers which only wait to immigrate to Japan and low skilled or non skilled would be a burden to the economy.

Japan will just end as important case study how a first world country can deal with a shrinking population. And Japan isn't gonna be the only nation in Asia with that "problem".

You don't need hundreds of thousands of skilled workers automation replaces that need largely anyway. You need carers people that can look after your continually aging population while providing input to your economy while doing so. The economy won't exist in the same manner it is (which wasn't going to happen anyway) but the situation is stable and the worst of the negative feedback loop is avoided. There's a good reason why Japan is the among the worst suffers of this.

This happens already in many western countries around the world. It's why immigrants make up such a large proportion of carers in many western countries.

 

[HStallion]

Not if Slayven gets there first..

We want to try and increase the population of Japan not kill them with laughter.

 

[Daedardus]

Is this actually a bad thing? I mean, a high population puts enormous strain on the environment and with automation there's less demand for workforce anyway. There are still some pretty big hurdles to overcome, such as an aging demographic, but at one point those lower too because of less births 70 years before that. Growing the population to overcome a growing population seemed doomed to me to begin with. We just need to learn to build an economy around an older workforce.

 

[witchedwiz]

They need to
1) review their xenophobic culture, and allow/encourage immigration from skilled workers
2) make the country more palatable, their work culture is a major turnoff.. It make crunch, in the european sense of the term, seems like a vacation..
3) they need to review the income of Tokyo worker...the amount of people living in 30 sqm apartments is a joke..
4) they need to invest into spreading the core of the economy much more than this.. But at least this point is valid for a lot of western cultures (see uk and london...)

Also japan should really step up and try to help at a social level their citizens..
When considering the low birthrate, their staggering rate of 70 suicides per day is nothing short of a concrete issue..

 

[Cyrano]

You don't need hundreds of thousands of skilled workers automation replaces that need largely anyway. You need carers people that can look after your continually aging population while providing input to your economy while doing so. The economy won't exist in the same manner it is (which wasn't going to happen anyway) but the situation is stable and the worst of the negative feedback loop is avoided. There's a good reason why Japan is the among the worst suffers of this.

This happens already in many western countries around the world. It's why immigrants make up such a large proportion of carers in many western countries.

If automation begins to replace skilled workers there will be an even worse crisis than there is already (inevitably, undercutting these workers means you no longer have a steady flow of individuals creating capital, and the result is less wealth for the individual, less money for the government due to less money gathered from taxes, and thus less support for the aging population most in need of it).

 

[Griss]

I find the whole 'replace shrinking population through immigration' argument fascinating, especially when the decline in population is on this scale.

It's well established that the more well-educated a population is, the less they breed. So the natural solution is to continually replace these educated people with people of another culture who are less educated and more likely to breed? Creating a sort of 'natural japanese' overclass who do the good jobs but don't have kids and then an 'immigrant underclass' who do the menial jobs and breed like rabbits, with the eventual desired outcome being that... well, what? That the Japanese themselves just one day shrink to a minority in their own country and the immigrants are now 'the Japanese?' And when that happens to those taken in (as they get better educated), then you look for a new place to draw uneducated workers from? And we think that this kind of divide wouldn't breed all kinds of social issues?

Seems like there are tons of flaws with it to be honest
-Cultural issues - The japanese have a unique culture with an emphasis on politeness that's almost specifically poorly structured for accepting less educated, less polite immigrants from different cultures as japanese

-Language issues - Learning japanese is really, really hard and it's not ubiquitously taught worldwide like english - this is NOT going to be most immigrant's first choice of destination

-Sustainability issues - The idea should be that in a couple of decades time that we've raised the standard of living around the globe to the point where people don't need to emigrate in the numbers they do today. So what happens when there are less immigrants, and more places with population decline. Are we going to start fighting over the menial labourers?

Sounds to me like incetives to breed and structured management of pension decline are the only long-term ways to tackle this. Some immigration will be needed, sure, but as a wholesale solution to this scale of population decline? I think it's crazy.

 

[M3d10n]

A smaller population isn't a problem. A population where a large majority is elderly and relies on pensions to get by is a problem. The level of automation needed to offset that is unlikely to become available quickly enough to prevent a possible collapse.

Mankind needs to stop this constant growth eventually, but simply stopping making babies and letting everyone grow old and feeble isn't exactly a good plan right now.

 

[SolarPowered]

They need pensions to pay for themselves, so the burden is not on younger people. Plus having houses and such be self reliant, so recycling, solar, etc. If we move on from the need for constant growth, this stuff won't be such a large problem. And every country will be challenged with this. We use immigration now in the US and Europe, but that will dry up sometime when other nations continue catching up with their living standards.

Yep

If you look past the current capitalist model running the world the end game beyond the short term immigration fixes is a combination of social and financial incentives that works at varying levels of intensity. We're talking tax breaks, straight up cash/credit rewards and maybe subsidies for things necessary to families such as public transportation, housing and schools/daycares. The main targets need to be newlyweds and couples in cohabitation already. Gotta help those folks get their foot in the door with the first and second children offering the biggest incentives.

Obviously, all of the above should only come after they reign in their crazy work hours and culture, so that men and women actually have the time and energy to spend with each other.

 

[Magus1234]

Long term effects of anime.

They could use a hippie movement right about now.

 

[PdotMichael]

You don't need hundreds of thousands of skilled workers automation replaces that need largely anyway. You need carers people that can look after your continually aging population while providing input to your economy while doing so. The economy won't exist in the same manner it is (which wasn't going to happen anyway) but the situation is stable and the worst of the negative feedback loop is avoided. There's a good reason why Japan is the among the worst suffers of this.

This happens already in many western countries around the world. It's why immigrants make up such a large proportion of carers in many western countries.

It's sll about productivity of your workforce. Increase of automation will play into Japan's hands despite a shrinking population.

And well, we are seeing two different concepts how to deal with the shrinking population situation. Right now I'm not sure if large scale immigration is the perfect way in that regard, not because of all that xenophobia nonsense but it takes generations to push them to the necessary skill leven and then they adapt the same low birthrate as the native population.

 

[EVOL 100%]

Immigration is already happening - Japan has been opening a lot of work positions to Koreans. Who woulda thunk that my Japanese major would come in handy

 

[HStallion]

Long term effects of anime.

They could use a hippie movement right about now.

I don't need unwashed Japanese folks in tie dye hemp shirts talking about how there is too much violence and anger in anime.

 

[Shredderi]

I find the whole 'replace shrinking population through immigration' argument fascinating, especially when the decline in population is on this scale.

It's well established that the more well-educated a population is, the less they breed. So the natural solution is to continually replace these educated people with people of another culture who are less educated and more likely to breed? Creating a sort of 'natural japanese' overclass who do the good jobs but don't have kids and then an 'immigrant underclass' who do the menial jobs and breed like rabbits, with the eventual desired outcome being that... well, what? That the Japanese themselves just one day shrink to a minority in their own country and the immigrants are now 'the Japanese?' And when that happens to those taken in (as they get better educated), then you look for a new place to draw uneducated workers from? And we think that this kind of divide wouldn't breed all kinds of social issues?

Seems like there are tons of flaws with it to be honest
-Cultural issues - The japanese have a unique culture with an emphasis on politeness that's almost specifically poorly structured for accepting less educated, less polite immigrants from different cultures as japanese

-Language issues - Learning japanese is really, really hard and it's not ubiquitously taught worldwide like english - this is NOT going to be most immigrant's first choice of destination

-Sustainability issues - The idea should be that in a couple of decades time that we've raised the standard of living around the globe to the point where people don't need to emigrate in the numbers they do today. So what happens when there are less immigrants, and more places with population decline. Are we going to start fighting over the menial labourers?

Sounds to me like incetives to breed and structured management of pension decline are the only long-term ways to tackle this. Some immigration will be needed, sure, but as a wholesale solution to this scale of population decline? I think it's crazy.

Agreed. Immigration isn't going to be the be-all-end-all solution to this.

 

[Tatsumaki Senpuukyaku!]

The amount of urban ruins are going to be fascinating considering how dense Japan is right now

 

[sixteen-bit]

Long term effects of anime.

They could use a hippie movement right about now.

This social commentary is about on par with your Street Fighter commentary.

 

[Cyrano]

I find the whole 'replace shrinking population through immigration' argument fascinating, especially when the decline in population is on this scale.

It's well established that the more well-educated a population is, the less they breed. So the natural solution is to continually replace these educated people with people of another culture who are less educated and more likely to breed? Creating a sort of 'natural japanese' overclass who do the good jobs but don't have kids and then an 'immigrant underclass' who do the menial jobs and breed like rabbits, with the eventual desired outcome being that... well, what? That the Japanese themselves just one day shrink to a minority in their own country and the immigrants are now 'the Japanese?' And when that happens to those taken in (as they get better educated), then you look for a new place to draw uneducated workers from? And we think that this kind of divide wouldn't breed all kinds of social issues?

Seems like there are tons of flaws with it to be honest
-Cultural issues - The japanese have a unique culture with an emphasis on politeness that's almost specifically poorly structured for accepting less educated, less polite immigrants from different cultures as japanese

-Language issues - Learning japanese is really, really hard and it's not ubiquitously taught worldwide like english - this is NOT going to be most immigrant's first choice of destination

-Sustainability issues - The idea should be that in a couple of decades time that we've raised the standard of living around the globe to the point where people don't need to emigrate in the numbers they do today. So what happens when there are less immigrants, and more places with population decline. Are we going to start fighting over the menial labourers?

Sounds to me like incetives to breed and structured management of pension decline are the only long-term ways to tackle this. Some immigration will be needed, sure, but as a wholesale solution to this scale of population decline? I think it's crazy.

I think the reason is because immigration on a large scale is likely the only solution the government could reasonably afford, in spite of it being an extremely unlikely solution. There's no way to subsidize child birth at a scale to curb declining birthrates that wouldn't crash the Japanese economy.

Cultural diversity might afford at least some chance of there being an increase in birth rates simply due to the eventual changes it may cause in the larger social climate in the country (i.e. stuff like over politeness not being as important, more people learning English, less focus on marriage, etc.).

 

[gun_haver]

Why is a shrinking population a bad thing?

 

[Principate]

If automation begins to replace skilled workers there will be an even worse crisis than there is already (inevitably, undercutting these workers means you no longer have a steady flow of individuals creating capital, and the result is less wealth for the individual, less money for the government due to less money gathered from taxes, and thus less support for the aging population most in need of it).

These individuals in particular aren't easily replaced by automation that's my point of you can't just look after an elderly person with a machine and leave it like that. It will affect the native working population as it would have done regardless but that population is shrinking anyway. As long as the money flows the economy keeps on chugging though it will have been forced to evolve in this case.

Even in Britain there isn't enough carers to actually handle the mental health and elder populations and that's with immigration (though that's about it be cut down too a bit).

 

[Magus1234]

This social commentary is about on par with your Street Fighter commentary.

 

[Boss Doggie]

I don't need unwashed Japanese folks in tie dye hemp shirts talking about how there is too much violence and anger in anime.

no we have grown people in spandex and plastic armor claiming that violence and in-fighting is bad

or at least one of them

 

[Omadahl]

Get that anime while you can.

Honestly though, this is what you get when you're xenophobic as all get out. A friend of mine lives there with his wife (from Japan) and kids (born in Japan) yet he's still not considered a citizen after four years.

 

[You Are Viewtiful]

Immigration time.

Xenophobia has gotta end.

Am I evil for wanting to have at least one country to be a poster child for racist economic illiteracy?

Probably yes. I hope the Japan gets out of its rut.

 

[Cyrano]

These individuals in particular aren't easily replaced by automation that's my point of you can't just look after an elderly person with a machine and leave it like that. It will affect the native working population as it would have done regardless but that population is shrinking anyway.

Automation is replacing both skilled and unskilled workers at this point and this trend is unlikely to change any time soon unless there's a massive shift in what capitalism is all about. There will be a point where we try to replace people with machines because cost-efficiency demands it. If a $200,000 robot replaces elderly care that normally costs far more, an army of robots will eventually be taking those jobs (and yes, bots will eventually get to this level of sophistication, particularly as the Internet of Things market expands). More likely is that it's an army of bots doing various menial tasks though - bots for cooking, bots for driving, bots for supporting movement, bots for cleaning, etc.

 

[Rion]

Honestly, this is not a bad thing. With automation and robot in the future, the need for people is much less. I think having less human on the planet would be better for the environment, and long term sustainability. This may just be the ultimate destination for every country.

 

[A-V-B]

2065? Will Climate Change not have killed us by then?

Don't you mean robotics billionaires

Biomass fueling is the future

 

[Rentahamster]

To those of you who are are talking immigration and how Japan sucks at it - do you also bemoan global overpopulation, or are those two separate groups of people? I'm just wondering if there's any overlap at all.

 

[fredrancour]

Why is a shrinking population a bad thing?

a sustainable, stable tiny population wouldn't be a bad thing. a shrinking, aging population isn't sustainable.

living in the generation that attempts to carry out the shift away from eternal economic growth to something else is likely to either involve a lot of hard work to change the structure of society, or putting off that hard work until a disaster occurs and having ten times the work to mop it up.

 

[Boss Doggie]

So is this the year where Doraemon goes back in time to save Nobita?

 

[Fallout-NL]

Yes.

Well, that's just fucking stupid.

 

[Neo C.]

Why is a shrinking population a bad thing?

It can cause hundreds of different problems, but one of the biggest problem right now is health care. Every developed country is in desperate need for work force in this area (care assistants, nurse etc.)

 

[AtomskEater]

The amount of urban ruins are going to be fascinating considering how dense Japan is right now

It's already neat seeing the pictures and videos from the occasional "abandoned rural village" that gets media traction now and again. And least we'll get some more cool pictures out of it.

 

[Mesoian]

Do they think without gay marriage that LGBT people just go "welp guess I'll procreate in a heteronormative relationship now"

Much like in america, it's more, "we don't care, by the time this is an actual problem, we'll all be dead".

It can cause hundreds of different problems, but one of the biggest problem right now is health care. Every developed country is in desperate need for work force in this area (care assistants, nurse etc.)

Yup. They're already in a position where the elderly basically place a stranglehold on any sort of political change through numbers, continuing to keep government spending focused on keeping them comfortable until death. Meanwhile, the youth of the nation is being throttled by unfair working conditions that will not change as long as the present administration continues on their crusade for "normalcy".

 

[Principate]

Automation is replacing both skilled and unskilled workers at this point and this trend is unlikely to change any time soon unless there's a massive shift in what capitalism is all about. There will be a point where we try to replace people with machines because cost-efficiency demands it. If a $200,000 robot replaces elderly care that normally costs far more, an army of robots will eventually be taking those jobs (and yes, bots will eventually get to this level of sophistication, particularly as the Internet of Things market expands).

I know that but your not looking at any subtlety to any of this. Saying automation is replacing all skilled and unskilled is not helpful or useful. Have a look at precisely what automation is replacing not everything is being replaced at remotely the same pace. That's how and why economies evolve and change. Despite being low skilled automation is not going to replace care work at any great speed. Care work 's biggest problem as is in regards the majority of westerns countries is complaints in regards to the quality of care and care users feeling like humans and being treated with respect. That's with human carers mind you. Now imagine the care industry being replaced by automation. Those problems aren't solved by robotics their substantially worsened.

I can use whatever mathematical models or use deep learning AI to control robotics through the most sophisticated sensors available that will not replace the quality of care provided by another human being. Certain human and emotional needs will have to be taken care of. Which is why not all low skilled jobs will be or even currently are nr replaced by automation in the same way.

 

[TheRealTalker]

It can cause hundreds of different problems, but one of the biggest problem right now is health care. Every developed country is in desperate need for work force in this area (care assistants, nurse etc.)

not only that but who is going to pay the pensions of the larger older populace

 

[1st Course]

Birth rates are below replacement level in every post industrial country in the world. Japan is not a special case in this regard

Generally speaking as income increase, fertility decline.

notice how virtually all countries with 3+ births per woman have less than 20k gdp per capita.

 

[clemenx]

I know that but your not looking at any subtlety to any of this. Saying automation is replacing all skilled and unskilled is not helpful or useful. Have a look at precisely what automation is replacing not everything is being replaced at remotely the same pace. That's how and why economies evolve and change. Despite being low skilled automation is not going to replace care work at any great speed. Care work as is in the majority of westerns has substantial complaints in regards to the quality of care and care users feeling like humans and being treated with respect. That's with human carers mind you. No imagine the care industry being replaced by automation. Those problems aren't solved by robotics their substantially worsened.

I can use whatever mathematical models or use deep learning AI to control robotics through the most sophisticated sensors available that will not replace the quality of care provided by another human being. Certain human and emotional needs will have to be taken care of. Which is why not all low skilled jobs will be or even are replaced by automation in the same way.

People in this thread seems to be talking about automation in an unrealistic idealistic tone.

It's going to be an ugly road.

 

[Ether_Snake]

This is a good thing, automation will favor countries with smaller populations. Japan was overpopulated. BI will be more sustainable.

 

[KillerMan91]

japan is just ahead of the curve tbh

time to end this charade humanity, EMBRACE THE VOID

Germany has had natural population decrease since 1972.

 

[sirap]

I'm watching my best-friend slowly lose his mind working in Japan. The hours are insane, the expectations are ludicrous and the inability to make any real difference in the company because of xenophobia and bureaucracy is frustrating.

It's no wonder marriages are failing and young adults are opting out of starting families.

 

[Izuna]

This is a good thing, automation will favor countries with smaller populations. Japan was overpopulated. BI will be more sustainable.

Anyone who thinks this is a good thing for Japan should read up more.

Kindergartens don't have enough employees and women are being called into work.

There are positive side-effects, such as women in the workplace (and people with disabilities), but with an Aging population the negatives outweigh the positives.

 

[Cyrano]

I know that but your not looking at any subtlety to any of this. Saying automation is replacing all skilled and unskilled is not helpful or useful. Have a look at precisely what automation is replacing not everything is being replaced at remotely the same pace. That's how and why economies evolve and change. Despite being low skilled automation is not going to replace care work at any great speed. Care work as is in the majority of westerns has substantial complaints in regards to the quality of care and care users feeling like humans and being treated with respect. That's with human carers mind you. No imagine the care industry being replaced by automation. Those problems aren't solved by robotics their substantially worsened.

I can use whatever mathematical models or use deep learning AI to control robotics through the most sophisticated sensors available that will not replace the quality of care provided by another human being. Certain human and emotional needs will have to be taken care of. Which is why not all low skilled jobs will be or even are replaced by automation in the same way.

I think you're massively underestimating what we can and will automate if we have the ability to do so. If the current boom in the Internet of Things market continues, there is a high likelihood of even supposedly "human only" jobs being lost. This is effectively what happened during various Industrial Revolutions (lots of people saying Job X or Y couldn't be automated) and it's why so much of the American midwest is a shadow of its former self.

I'm not saying it's going to happen right away, mind you, but it is happening and it continues to accelerate.

 

[Line_HTX]

This social commentary is about on par with your Street Fighter commentary.

Bah Gawd Almighty!

 

[Poppy]

Germany has had natural population decrease since 1972.

hey man its not a contest

 

[PdotMichael]

India has by the way the same demographic devolepement as Japan they are just 50 years behind.

With the world wide shrinking birth rate, maybe some of us will even still live when humanity hits the global population peak, there is no thing such an endless supply of "immigrants" out there.

Nations will adapt to the new situation and automation and AI will help them.

 

[Beartruck]

2065? Will Climate Change not have killed us by then?

No. Itll cause worldwide chaos and millions will die but humanity will still be around.

 

[Trickster]

I really have no idea how people in Japan are supposed to find the will to make kids while they are busy working themselves to death with their insane work culture.

I don't have the will for that, and I live in a country with only a 37 hour work week.

It will be interesting to see if they try to change things. Or if their culture, which seem super hostile to change, will keep them running right off the cliff

 

[Taiser]

robot waifus

robot waifus with artificial wombs.

 

[Poppy]

India has by the way the same demographic devolepement as Japan they are just 50 years behind.

With the world wide shrinking birth rate, maybe some of us will even still live when humanity hits the global population peak, there is no thing such an endless supply of "immigrants" out there.

Nations will adapt to the new situation and automation and AI will help them.

i feel like it will take a long time for many countries, particularly in sub saharan africa to develop and reach their zenith

 

[Starviper]

I'm watching my best-friend slowly lose his mind working in Japan. The hours are insane, the expectations are ludicrous and the inability to make any real difference in the company because of xenophobia and bureaucracy is frustrating.

It's no wonder marriages are failing and young adults are opting out of starting families.

I'd love to move to Japan but the work culture seems to be a huge detriment. Though, there is a lot to love about the country. Learning Japanese is my biggest hump to get over if I really were dedicated to moving.

 

[thehypocrite]

Death by purity.