Boss Doggie
all my loli wolf companions are so moe
Well yeah, everyone's gonna be playing that cool hip video game "come to life" but the game over kills them.
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Japan's population to shrink by a third by 2065
- Thread starter Lights and Waves
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chromatic9
Member
Big chance for weeaboos to save their culture.
BudokaiMR2
Member
That's honestly not even that unlikely of a scenario if things really don't improve, though $100k mouth be pushing it. I believe the total you currently get for one child is around $20k or so over the entire payable period. Numbers might be out of date but I did the math once after our first year of payments. Don't think the law has changed in the last few years.
Then again Japanese politicians are for the most part inept corrupt bastards and you will only hear word of an increase through their stupid campaign megaphones. It would be nice though!
Can't see that happening with Japan.
This joke isn't as funny as you think it is.
Yep. Most of western europe isn't much better in this regard. Them countries are getting pretty old, pretty fast.
Of course in Europe is not as fast because of inmmigration does happen.
Cosmo Clock 21
Banned
They aren't going to procreate either
Autodidact
Banned
Why does population decline have to be a crisis? I know we've predicated our economic systems on infinite growth, but at some point we have to acknowledge that we live in a world of finite space and resources. On paper Japan's population density seems reasonable (~883/sq. mile), but remember that most of the country is mountainous and uninhabitable, which means the true density is much higher. Wouldn't slow, steady population decline - the kind not precipitated by war or famine - ease the strain on resources and offer more living space? This line of reasoning also applies to countries far more populous than Japan. I reason life in Bangladesh, for instance, would be more tolerable without 160 million people shoved into a space smaller than Oklahoma.
I can anticipate the responses about the economy and pensions, so I'll address those arguments. This forum has almost universally agreed that automation will eventually render much human labor obsolete. We talk about basic income and caring for people already alive, as we should, but couldn't we also blunt the problem by having fewer people in general? Let the machines do the work and support the economy, and let a gently shrinking population reap the benefits. In the past, we needed a constantly expanding pool of labor (cf. West Germany's "guest worker" program in the '60s). That paradigm will soon shift, however, and human populations should shift with it. If Japan refines its technology and embraces automation, it can live well even with a dwindling population.
EDIT: I should note that in the short term, increased immigration would be the most reasonable option. Eventually, though, countries will have to acknowledge the problems I mentioned - overcrowding, resources, and automation - and seriously consider the necessity of increasing populations in the future.
I can anticipate the responses about the economy and pensions, so I'll address those arguments. This forum has almost universally agreed that automation will eventually render much human labor obsolete. We talk about basic income and caring for people already alive, as we should, but couldn't we also blunt the problem by having fewer people in general? Let the machines do the work and support the economy, and let a gently shrinking population reap the benefits. In the past, we needed a constantly expanding pool of labor (cf. West Germany's "guest worker" program in the '60s). That paradigm will soon shift, however, and human populations should shift with it. If Japan refines its technology and embraces automation, it can live well even with a dwindling population.
EDIT: I should note that in the short term, increased immigration would be the most reasonable option. Eventually, though, countries will have to acknowledge the problems I mentioned - overcrowding, resources, and automation - and seriously consider the necessity of increasing populations in the future.
SENPAIatLARGE
Banned
LegendofJoe
Member
Population decrease isn't something to be feared, as long as it's gradual and stable. A decline as fast as Japan is experiencing is not something other countries should be racing to emulate.
QuicheFontaine
Member
Exactly, this sounds like good news to me. All the people who are talking about cramming even more people into Japan (when they're already stacked on top of each other in tiny apartments!), what's the endgame there? Surely population has to stop growing at some point?
Edit:
Autodidact pretty much nailed it as I was typing this post.
BudokaiMR2
Member
There are still plenty of problems, but there have already been improvements as recent as last month. Several of my friends are already taking advantage of the relaxed requirements on permanent residency.
Principate
Saint Titanfall
Because as much as it may come as a bit of a shock but machines aren't carer's. You can't treat humans especially elderly as factory produce your going to need an actual person to look after them.
The Last Wizard
Member
Could this be a long term effect from the atomic bombs?
AcademicSaucer
Member
Seriously, for the people saying immigration, japan years ago was paying immigrants of japanese descent to leave the country.
I thought it was some silly GAF reference but from the lack of response to the post it seems like it's really as shitty a joke as it is at face value isn't it
Principate
Saint Titanfall
Almost all western countries without the influx from immigration have shrinking populations. It's not exclusive to Japan so I doubt it has that much of an effect.
Etrian Oddity
Member
Steeped in a Sea of Games
Member
Stop working so much, stop marrying pillows and making love to robots, encourage immigration.
Or... Just allow the population to shrink and hope that it balances out somewhere? *shrug*
In reality they should be instituting a lot of pro-family programs. Rebates for having kids. Socialized family care services like day-care and day-nurses etc.
Or... Just allow the population to shrink and hope that it balances out somewhere? *shrug*
In reality they should be instituting a lot of pro-family programs. Rebates for having kids. Socialized family care services like day-care and day-nurses etc.
TheRealTalker
Banned
whatever Japan become an empty waste land with no population because you are too stubborn to accept globalization
even though your country would've never existed if people didn't migrate from Eastern Asia
even though your country would've never existed if people didn't migrate from Eastern Asia
This is the long-term effects of incredibly unhealthy work-life balance that have been ingrained in the culture.
Some but not all. The fertility rate in the US is 1.88. UK, 1.9. France, 2.1. In Japan, it is 1.44 - not the lowest there is, but comparatively low. Japan is interesting as the first major example of modern population decline, thanks to the timing of its baby boom and decades-long recession.
The issue of work life balance in Japan is widely known. When the government begins to enforce employment/transport laws (rather than implementing but not enforcing), the problem will undoubtedly begin to heal (though it is a deep wound).
Japanese girls being treated like Christmas cakes (Google it) does not help when females are expected to make an equal contribution to the workforce during their 20s.
Anecdotal, but having dated a reasonable amount of Japanese girls, it is pretty hellish being in a relationship with one. It is not uncommon to meet your partner a handful of times in a month, for instance, despite being a train journey away. When meeting my ex (architect), she would be too tired to engage on a meaningful level and it caused our relationship to fall apart. It is sad because I really liked her. She is now 31 and single.
Not all foreign people experience it, since girls willing to date a foreigner are generally more progress, but some friends have reported the same.
So Japan is gonna turn into a really large retirement home with robots doing all the work. Neat.
The answer is capitalism. And solving it revolves around admitting growth can't continue forever without some Star Trek unobtanium nonsense. That said, assuming capitalism continues, it's far more likely that war ends most of the population rather than a decline in birth rates.
This is my mantra
adamantypants
Member
shira
Member
If nobody is paying rent or living in homes then the real estate market crashes.
Then the stock market crashes
Then the banks crash.
etc etc
Either robots start buying houses or some real estate investors in China are going to own all of Japan.
These kinds of near futures will help to ease the friction of fast and furious multicultural integration.
Gordon Shumway
Banned
Not if Slayven gets there first..
Auto_aim1
MeisaMcCaffrey
88 million is not a large retirement home. UK right now has around 65mil and Canada I think 40mil.
Encouraging immigration and HUGE subsidies for child rearing and education.
If they won't change their work culture, they have to change something else. How does an capitalist economy deal with ever shrinking demand due to population contraction otherwise?
It's a very bad negative feedback loop unless something is done.
If they won't change their work culture, they have to change something else. How does an capitalist economy deal with ever shrinking demand due to population contraction otherwise?
It's a very bad negative feedback loop unless something is done.
Principate
Saint Titanfall
The important part is the age breakdown. The both have substantially younger populations.
I don't think this is as much of a problem in Japan because buildings in the city are demolished routinely after they pass 30 - 40 years of age. They are then usually pre-sold and rebuilt.
The risk is that the price of accommodation may increase as buildings are designed with fewer occupants in mind.
However, we will probably see a lot of ghost towns emerge as the country's youth continues to migrate towards cities.
Auto_aim1
MeisaMcCaffrey
That's true but I think they still have time to somewhat reverse this.
Pandora012
Member
I wonder if they would think of immigration to help with the problem, that and the work culture over there.
Principate
Saint Titanfall
Largely that it's because the number of people being born are less than the number of people dying which means the average age of your population is going up and up and up. Looking after elderly people is not a cheap and easy endeavour and someone will have to look after them. If they're not being looked after the quality of life at that stage of life becomes far worse not to mention higher death rates and that shit show continue and continues and continues getting worse all the time.
It's not a position a country wants to be in regardless of the decreased drain on resources.
Immigration might help but I'm not sure how people in the country might deal with that, nor how smooth acclimation would be of those coming in.
Subsidies for child rearing would place the country's already huge financial debt into an even worse state. Not something the government can reasonably afford.
PdotMichael
Banned
Immigration in that necessary scale wouldn't help that much, there aren't hundred thousand of skilled workers which only wait to immigrate to Japan and low skilled or non skilled would be a burden to the economy.
Japan will just end as important case study how a first world country can deal with a shrinking population. And Japan isn't gonna be the only nation in Asia with that "problem".
Japan will just end as important case study how a first world country can deal with a shrinking population. And Japan isn't gonna be the only nation in Asia with that "problem".
True Savior
Member
It's fascinating that by fucking less we will fuck everyone.
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