July 2013 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes August 12

Predictions close on Monday. August presumably having a new 3DSXL color (black) and finally a $199 PS3 (12GB EU-style) should make for an interesting month. Wonder if Microsoft will counter with anything for Xbox Slim (not the new model).
 
donny2112 said:
Predictions close on Monday. August presumably having a new 3DSXL color (black) and finally a $199 PS3 (12GB EU-style) should make for an interesting month. Wonder if Microsoft will counter with anything for Xbox Slim (not the new model).
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Personally, I'm most interested to see the sell-through of Pikmin 3 for the month of August.

I can't wait to see what impact the game will have for Wii U sales.
 
Aquamarine said:
Personally, I'm most interested to see the sell-through of Pikmin 3 for the month of August.

I can't wait to see what impact the game will have for Wii U sales.
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GCN sales went down with Pikmin 2's release (27K / week in August, release August 30, 23K / week in September). Now that was the second game on the system and past the peak of GameCube's "life," but it doesn't show a big draw for the game itself. Just the fact that they'd be airing more ads about the system to promote the game may help but that price. :(
 
Price hurts. $349 is just not attractive.

On a side note, I'm dying to see what SMT IV did. The cross promotion had to have done something.
 
donny2112 said:
GCN sales went down with Pikmin 2's release (27K / week in August, release August 30, 23K / week in September). Now that was the second game on the system and past the peak of GameCube's "life," but it doesn't show a big draw for the game itself. Just the fact that they'd be airing more ads about the system to promote the game may help but that price. :(
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The bulk of GameCube sales during Pikmin 2's launch months (August and September 2004) actually came from the release of the "Metroid Bonus" bundle (GameCube + Metroid Prime + Metroid Prime 2 Demo).

In fact, sales of the regular GameCube + black GameCube plummeted during that time. Really, it seems as if Pikmin 2's impact on the hardware market was minimal at best.

By "impact," I mean more that I'm curious whether or not the console will cause ANY kind of bump, considering the Wii U has been going through a persistent dry period since March.
 
BlackJace said:
Price hurts. $349 is just not attractive.

On a side note, I'm dying to see what SMT IV did. The cross promotion had to have done something.
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I seriously can't wait to see SMTIV's result...hopefully, Nintendo itself highlights it, since in the last Mini Direct they included the game among its first party offering...yeah, I know it sounds strange.
 
For July, Pachter expects NPD to report console and handhled US retail sales down 23 percent to $200 million, the sixth straight month of year-over-year declines on that front. Those sales will be led by the new release NCAA Football 14, as well as top June sellers Animal Crossing: New Leaf and The Last of Us. Pachter also has the retail release of Minecraft among his best sellers for the month when it comes to unit sales, although the game's budget $20 price point will limit its impact in terms of dollars.

The hardware front isn't shaping up to be much better, as Pachter has pegged all existing systems and handhelds down at least 38 percent year-over-year. The Wii U wasn't around last July, but Pachter expects Nintendo's latest was down 29 percent month-over-month, selling just 30,000 units while being outsold by the original Wii's 35,000 units. To help goose those numbers leading into the new system launches, Pachter expects hardware makers to roll out a number of price cuts and bundles in advance of the holiday season.
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http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2013-08-12-july-retail-sales-set-to-slide-again
 
Totally spaced this. I'll go with overly pessimistic to counter being wildly over optimistic last month.

[360] 90k
[3DS] 125k
[PS3] 65k
[PSV] 20k
[WIU] 25k
 
[3DS] 163K
[360] 103K
[PS3] 160K
[WIU] 28K
[PSV] 18K

small bumps for residual animal crossing and last of us sales
 
Syphon Filter said:
[360] 155k
[PS3] 98k
[3DS] 170k
[WIU] 75k
[PSV] 70k
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I usually lurk this post and avoid replying since due to my work i feel entitled to provide numbers regarding just a selected number of fields, and i hate number-guessing in general though i can understand that trying to nail a prediction is quite alluring.
This being said, sure wii u can still be enjoying the aftereffect of the start of the year of Luigi move, sure there's pikmin but son, that number is.... Well maybe you love nintendo, i'll let that slide..
And then....
Then you do a doubledip at overestimating sales projection for vita and i wonder: vita had no real blockbuster lately (apart from dragon's crown) but that's not enough to justify that number....

Even a raise in the staple top three console projection is a bit excessive: it could be justified if all of those had at least a few blockbuster tilt e released in the same time frame or if we were at some gifting-phase doorstep, instead it's summer...

Personally i expect a normally low number in wii u or a biiiiiiiiiit higher, a slightly higher 3ds sales, and a in the median sales figure for ps3 and 360... 3ds should be enjoying the last of a higher-sales figure.. As soon as the animal crossing effect is gone, sales number will go to normal until pokmon...
not having any first hand data can't try stating with any degree of faith the rough sales figure :p
 
Lonely1 said:
Are Ouya and Shield going to be tracked?
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Both systems will get tracked by NPD.

But regarding potential leaks:

We may get OUYA leaks this month if we're lucky.

But I'm not sure yet if NPD will consider the Nvidia Shield a game console or a PC accessory. So there is a possibility we may not have any potential for leaks if NPD places its sales within other databases.
 
Less than 20 hours remain until the July 2013 NPD thread is in the wild!

I know GAF isn't very optimistic, but I really hope Wii U sales won't decline in this reporting period.

A ~33,600 / 4-week trend is bad enough!
 
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