Kevin Rose's 5 tech predictions for 2016

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Funky Papa said:
It did weight like a tank.

But what really made it stupid as all fuck was the odious lag. That was just brutal.
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I used it once as a kid at a Dave and Busters and it was a ridiculous waste of time and money. The guy running the unit also had no idea to instruct me how to play and it was just a total failure. Pretty sure I got eaten by a teredactyl and died in like 60 seconds... my dad standing beside was like "I just wasted $5 on this...?"
 
Slayven said:
Yeah VR will have a healthy hobbyist niche, but until it becomes plug and play it won't reach any mainstream saturation.
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I am actually really starting to think that cellphone VR units are going to be it for the mainstream. You can offer all the virtual tourism business through that as it is without the price barrier.

PSVR will make a great gaming peripheral.
 
Pretty safe predictions. I agree with all of them. I've been saying VR will be a dud for awhile just like 3D TV's.
 
Kinitari said:
Consider the barrier of entry for the occulus or the psvr, it's pretty high. Not just financially, but technically - especially the occulus.

I built a rig with VR in mind, and I'm ready for it, but that's not going to be the case even for most VR enthusiasts. Maybe in enough time, the tech will mature with a strong enough platform to break into the mainstream, but I don't think the cardboard's of the world are going to be anything more than cool party favours (my cardboard is on the way, so maybe I need to try it out first), and it will take some time to get anywhere near mass market.

AR I see getting there first, just because of its more functional scope. The tech is further out, but I'd still bet on it. In fact I'd say this year is the year everyone starts to agree with me on that :p
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I agree with you but at the same time I don't think this is the make-or-break year for VR. It won't have a skyrocket success, but the tech is there to attract the enthusiast and build a small crowd.

I see it reaching mainstream audiences in late 2017 or 2018.


Talonz said:
Pretty safe predictions. I agree with all of them. I've been saying VR will be a dud for awhile just like 3D TV's.
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3DTVs are still a dud. VR will eventually reach consumer success, but not in 2016.
 
I don't think its fair to write off VR because its not going to be huge in 2016. 3D tv's and the like were just the primitive middle step between a 2d experience and a fully immersive one like VR. VR will undoubtedly be a huge thing thing in the future, but the support probably won't be there in 2016.
 
VR will very likely have a slow start but it certainly won't fail. Over the next decade it will build up to be one of the biggest advancements since the smartphone.
 
DoctorWho said:
I am actually really starting to think that cellphone VR units are going to be it for the mainstream. You can offer all the virtual tourism business through that as it is without the price barrier.

PSVR will make a great gaming peripheral.
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I am shocked they aren't pushing them more. People already have the most expensive thing, a phone. Sell the kit with a code to download a few apps. 15 to 20 bucks a piece and Bob is your uncle.
 
While I feel Rose fell out of the public tech space some time ago, most of what he says here is spot on for the year. While I really do want VR to take off, I'm not sure consumer demand is there yet to make it a viable platform. The cost of entry alone, even with the advancements and "wow" factor it has now, is going to keep people away. I do think that VR experiences like that maze built into a warehouse will probably spring up though. It'll be a luxury experience over an in-home one at first.
 
The first three predictions are pretty much common sense, insofar as you're able to escape the Silicon Valley bubble a bit.

That said, the Apple Watch prediction is somewhat subjective since 1) a small success for Apple would qualify as a relatively big one for most any other corporation given their size these days, and 2) Apple currently doesn't break out the Watch figures. I like how he snuck a dig (haha) at his ex's ex, though.

Cryptocurrency and block chain are two separate things, and the current excitement is on the blockchain side of things. We may see more exciting developments there.

The Uber predictions sounds a bit more like hinting at things he's hearing second hand, although it's been clear Uber has greater ambitions. I think they'll encounter limited success at those plans outside of ride sharing, at least in 2016. They're the biggest unicorn in the market, but I think some people prematurely predict their effectiveness/potential execution at times. They still need to really focus on scaling and accommodating their ride sharing business.
 
ZackieChan said:
I feel like this is MASSIVELY overselling the impact of VR.
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I don't think it is. VR inherently changes the viewing experience. It gives you depth perception and places you inside a scene/world. It's a new way to experience media.
 
DoctorWho said:
It makes me wonder if these cellphone VR devices are they way things could end up going for the mass market. The barrier to entry is relatively small (around $99 for a good unit) and almost everyone already owns the device. No wonder Google is playing in that space.

The PSVR barrier is not too bad as that is mainly a price concern. The hardware itself is fairly plug and play.

The PC market is all enthusiast with a high barrier too entry both technically and financially.
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The concern with the 100 smart phone units is going to be 1. Sub optimal experience 2. Limited capabilities.

The psvr will be the most mainstream of the quality vr experiences, for mostly the reason you highlighted, only cost is an issue.
 
dLMN8R said:
Kevin Rose thinking that AR will come before VR is pretty funny, since AR is technically far more difficult.
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What's so funny about it? You guys, and the guy you tweeted, approach it from a technological standpoint whereas his predictions is probably based on a business standpoint. Basically the tech's growth will be driven by its business use and there are more apparent business uses for AR than there are VR in his mind
 
The Albatross said:
I used it once as a kid at a Dave and Busters and it was a ridiculous waste of time and money. The guy running the unit also had no idea to instruct me how to play and it was just a total failure. Pretty sure I got eaten by a teredactyl and died in like 60 seconds... my dad standing beside was like "I just wasted $5 on this...?"
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Back in the 90's I spent an unrecommended amount of my weekly allowance on Grid Busters before throwing the towel and deciding that I would only touch a VR cabinet to set it alight.

It was just such a confusing, unplayable mess. Not only it was implausibly difficult to get a grasp of the controls without spending what amounted to a small fortune for a middle class kid, but it would leave you with a sore neck after a while (I guess it's a good thing most folks couldn't last more than five minutes) and the games were just plain unfun due to the savage lag. I swear it felt as if there was a 1 second delay between your head's movement and what you saw on the visor. Action games were a total disaster.

I feel like VR is here to stay, but it may be a dud considering the current expectations. NVIDIA just claimed that only a small fraction of gaming computers are up to snuff, pricing will remain prohibitive for a good while and the form factor presents a number of unique challenges that prevents it from gaining mainstream appeal, chiefly the inability to share it (it's hard to convert your friends when only one people can experience it at the same time) and the fact that headsets are fucking uncomfortable no matter how much you try. I mean, even prescription glasses are a bit of a hassle :(
 
Couldn't agree more about VR. I've been hating on that shit since the first time I put one of those visors on. They are uncomfortable, anti social, unhygienic (making it weird to pass the headset around), and the quality of content is ass beyond the initial cool factor. It's like 3D tv to me: eventually we will get there but companies are trying to rush it forward thinking they got the next big fad. It will fizzle out and come back when the tech is ready
 
I'm not much of an Uber power user, but I usually decide where I'm going before using the Uber app....because I want to get a ride once I know where I'm going. I guess it could work the other way around too, though.
 
Real talk: While I can't see VR becoming popular right now, I honestly believe that porn could be one of the driving forces pushing it into the mainstream.
 
ant_ said:
3DTVs are still a dud. VR will eventually reach consumer success, but not in 2016.
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VR is DOA. Outside of a group of core enthusiasts I don't think people care.

All we've been hearing about is how awesome VR is and have been for 3+ years now and people still don't have consumer units in their hands.

Recently Sony have said that PSVR will be console tier priced and even Oculus have said VR won't be cheap. Coupled with the fact that Nvidia have very recently gone on to say that VR needs seven times the PC power we currently have.

Then you have the technical limitations of being tethered, being constrained by the room size and contents as well as the 'touch controllers' delayed till the second half of 2016. The biggest problem you have is inputs, if i cant reach out and have the tactile feedback of holding the object then I don't want to know.

Finally you have the problems of marketshare and segmentation. Vive, Oculus and PSVR have different platforms and control schemes, no one can devote AAA tier budgets and time so we will get what amounts to tech demos or tacked on view controls for some games.

VR is as dead as 3D was. Maybe in another 20-30 years the tech will be there to fully deliver on the promise but by then maybe we will have holograms or something else.
 
TheLegendOfMart said:
VR is DOA. Outside of a group of core enthusiasts I don't think people care.

All we've been hearing about is how awesome VR is and have been for 3+ years now and people still don't have consumer units in their hands.

Recently Sony have said that PSVR will be console tier priced and even Oculus have said VR won't be cheap. Coupled with the fact that Nvidia have very recently gone on to say that VR needs seven times the PC power we currently have.

Then you have the technical limitations of being tethered, being constrained by the room size and contents as well as the 'touch controllers' delayed till the second half of 2016.

Finally you have the problems of marketshare and segmentation. Vive, Oculus and PSVR have different platforms and control schemes, no one can devote AAA tier budgets and time so we will get what amounts to tech demos or tacked on view controls for some games.

VR is as dead as 3D was. Maybe in another 20-30 years the tech will be there to fully deliver on the promise but by then maybe we will have holograms or something else.
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20 years is way too long, man.

Look at the trajectory of tech. 20 years is a lifetime.

My prediction is half a decade for video game style uptake, so around 40 million units WW. I don't think it will ever be mainstream like smartphones, though.
 
entremet said:
20 years is way too long, man.

Look at the trajectory of tech. 20 years is a lifetime.

My prediction is half a decade for video game style uptake, so around 40 million units WW. I don't think it will ever be mainstream like smartphones, though.
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I mostly agree. The tech industry is unpredictable even 1 year out, but I don't think it'll take 20. I do think that in 5 it'll probably be higher than 40mil units.

Although I think the driving factor will really be a bleeding of VR/AR/MR/whatever into one consumer device. At that point we'll probably call all these separate technologies one thing and be done with it
 
Funky Papa said:
Real talk: While I can't see VR becoming popular right now, I honestly believe that porn could be one of the driving forces pushing it into the mainstream.
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A lot of people say this, but I think it is more than that this time. Porn didn't make smart phones a thing

VR needs an increase in convenience, usability and interface before games and porn can properly take advantage of it. Rose I think is on the money with AR, mainly because it solves the anti social aspects of VR
 
TheLegendOfMart said:
VR is DOA. Outside of a group of core enthusiasts I don't think people care.

All we've been hearing about is how awesome VR is and have been for 3+ years now and people still don't have consumer units in their hands.

Recently Sony have said that PSVR will be console tier priced and even Oculus have said VR won't be cheap. Coupled with the fact that Nvidia have very recently gone on to say that VR needs seven times the PC power we currently have.

Then you have the technical limitations of being tethered, being constrained by the room size and contents as well as the 'touch controllers' delayed till the second half of 2016.

Finally you have the problems of marketshare and segmentation. Vive, Oculus and PSVR have different platforms and control schemes, no one can devote AAA tier budgets and time so we will get what amounts to tech demos or tacked on view controls for some games.

VR is as dead as 3D was. Maybe in another 20-30 years the tech will be there to fully deliver on the promise but by then maybe we will have holograms or something else.
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I think your logic is insane.

1) I agree with you, 2016 and early 2017 will be the year of hardcore enthusiasts for the reasons you listed - barrier to entry and new technology.

2) This is a software problem and not a hardware problem. Games/media will be built in regards to these constraints (I believe the Vive is the only headset that requires external position monitors).

3) You don't need AAA budgets for the initial audience. With the way gaming has been going recently, smaller developers can produce amazing games at a fraction of the budget. They will be the driving force behind the early years of VR before larger developers commit.

I don't think we need to be reminded that Facebook (one of the most valuable companies in the world) is backing Occulus/VR and will work towards its success.

VR will be mainstream within 10 years. I'm hoping for 5.
 
TheLegendOfMart said:
Maybe in another 2-3 years the tech will be there to fully deliver on the promise but by then maybe we will have holograms or something else.
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Fixed it for you.

The problem of VR is that there are no system sellers outside of maybe some VR porn. Some cockpit games, some tech demos, some horror games but nothing is as anticipated as mainstream AAA games. Without VR GTA or Star Wars it has no chance of getting mainstream attention that would translate into sales.
 
Kinitari said:
I mostly agree. The tech industry is unpredictable even 1 year out, but I don't think it'll take 20. I do think that in 5 it'll probably be higher than 40mil units.

Although I think the driving factor will really be a bleeding of VR/AR/MR/whatever into one consumer device. At that point we'll probably call all these separate technologies one thing and be done with it
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VR will be huge in medicine, for training surgeons and other medical imaging tasks.

A lot of VRs promise will be best served in non consumer spaces.

Cereal KiIIer said:
VR will be huge when VR porn gets more mainstream.
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Porn is a media of the common folk.

Right now it's dominates cheap or free streaming sites and mobile has been growing.

People aren't watching porn on the home theatre systems en masse, but on their tiny smartphone screens and incognito window lol.
 
Evolution of Metal said:
Fixed it for you.

The problem of VR is that there are no system sellers outside of maybe some VR porn. Some cockpit games, some tech demos, some horror games but nothing is as anticipated as mainstream AAA games. Without VR GTA or Star Wars it has no chance of getting mainstream attention that would translate into sales.
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The problem is getting companies to start thinking 3 dimensionally. This, unlike 3D tv's, is not a new layer of paint to old format. It is literally a new format, and its going to be exploited in ways we haven't considered yet. I think films being filmed in 360 degree will be a bit of a breakthrough moment. Sitting in a dark hall 50 feet from a flat screen will seem archaic in comparison.
 
He says cryptocurrencies are too technical and offer nothing to the average Joe, 7 years after they debuted? Wow. The technical prowess of this guy.
 
Future said:
A lot of people say this, but I think it is more than that this time. Porn didn't make smart phones a thing

VR needs an increase in convenience, usability and interface before games and porn can properly take advantage of it. Rose I think is on the money with AR, mainly because it solves the anti social aspects of VR
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Cellphone-powered VR is good enough for porn. And cheap. You don't need a cracking computer and a Oculus Rift headset to get your smut on.

Convincing people to try VR is going to be hard due to the difficulty to share the experience, but I assure you that five minutes of a 60 fps Silvia Rubi blowjob can win souls and minds better than Star Citizen could ever dream.

entremet said:
Porn is a media of the common folk.

Right now it's dominates cheap or free streaming sites and mobile has been growing.

People aren't watching porn on the home theatre systems en masse, but on their tiny smartphone screens and incognito window lol.
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I've been told that there are streaming VR porn sites.

Just saying.
 
ant_ said:
I think your logic is insane.

1) I agree with you, 2016 and early 2017 will be the year of hardcore enthusiasts for the reasons you listed - barrier to entry and new technology.

2) This is a software problem and not a hardware problem. Games/media will be built in regards to these constraints (I believe the Vive is the only headset that requires external position monitors).

3) You don't need AAA budgets for the initial audience. With the way gaming has been going recently, smaller developers can produce amazing games at a fraction of the budget. They will be the driving force behind the early years of VR before larger developers commit.

I don't think we need to be reminded that Facebook (one of the most valuable companies in the world) is backing Occulus/VR and will work towards its success.

VR will be mainstream within 10 years. I'm hoping for 5.
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It is a software AND hardware problem. Oculus Touch comes close but as I said if you can't reach out and touch something and have the physical force against your hands then it will be nothing more than a glorified right analogue stick in games.

I get you don't need that kind of budget to begin with but for it to really take off you need one clear platform or at least for them to agree on a set of APIs so you could just buy your headset of choice and have it automatically work on the platform you want to play with. No one can commit big money on big games if the market is so segmented and without that VR won't be anything more than a novelty.


Evolution of Metal said:
Fixed it for you.

The problem of VR is that there are no system sellers outside of maybe some VR porn. Some cockpit games, some tech demos, some horror games but nothing is as anticipated as mainstream AAA games. Without VR GTA or Star Wars it has no chance of getting mainstream attention that would translate into sales.
Click to expand...

I remember trying VR in the early 90s and despite 25 years of explosive tech growth they still haven't solved fundamental problems such as wires and input. Recently technology has started to plateau so the power to drive VR won't be available any time soon so 2-3 years is a pipe dream.
 
For everyone saying porn will be a killer app for VR, how do you solve the technical problem of people potentially walking into the room and watching you oblivious with your pants round your ankles furiously masturbating?
 
entremet said:
VR will be huge in medicine, for training surgeons and other medical imaging tasks.

A lot of VRs promise will be best served in non consumer spaces.
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Agree, even if VR fails to capture the mass it's gonna keep working and growing on the PC with many applications beyond gaming. Big difference with Kinect, Move and Wii mote is that the tech is rooted on the PC and not a console.

I predict the PSVR gonna be a dud and I fear that it's gonna be the device that will drag the whole tech down.
 
TheLegendOfMart said:
It is a software AND hardware problem. Oculus Touch comes close but as I said if you can't reach out and touch something and have the physical force against your hands then it will be nothing more than a glorified right analogue stick in games.

I get you don't need that kind of budget to begin with but for it to really take off you need one clear platform or at least for them to agree on a set of APIs so you could just buy your headset of choice and have it automatically work on the platform you want to play with. No one can commit big money on big games if the market is so segmented and without that VR won't be anything more than a novelty.




I remember trying VR in the early 90s and despite 25 years of explosive tech growth they still haven't solved fundamental problems such as wires and input. Recently technology has started to plateau so the power to drive VR won't be available any time soon so 2-3 years is a pipe dream.
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VR in the early 90s wasn't accessible to consumers, though. The pricing was geared toward businesses, not the home.

It was the purview of arcades. Big difference.
 
liquidtmd said:
For everyone saying porn will be a killer app for VR, how do you solve the technical problem of people potentially walking into the room and watching you oblivious with your pants round your ankles furiously masturbating?
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The same could be said about most sex toys.
 
entremet said:
VR in the early 90s wasn't accessible to consumers, though. The pricing was geared toward businesses, not the home.

It was the purview of arcades. Big difference.
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I guess but I wouldn't say $400-500+ accessible especially when you factor in the kind of GPU power required to drive VR.
 
This is still Kevin Rose's best gift to society...

DqDS9Np.gif
 
The problem with VR doubters is that they only see it as a gaming or entertainment peripheral rather than a whole new medium. Even if VR fails in gaming (which I doubt) I still think it's going to have major success in many different fields, from tourism to any type of business
 
ant_ said:
No, people are attempting to draw a parallel between 3D TVs (a failure) and VR. I personally think it's an incredibly poor analogy.
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There's a common link between both, tho: Nobody likes to put annoying shit on their faces.

Specially so if you already use glasses.
 
ant_ said:
No, people are attempting to draw a parallel between 3D TVs (a failure) and VR. I personally think it's an incredibly poor analogy.
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How is it a poor analogy?

VR is just a glorified first person camera in games, nothing I've seen is revolutionary outside of a touch controller thats specific to one headset and is delayed till the end of year in a small tech demo room.
 
#3 -- It would be pretty straightforward for Apple to release a fitbit-like "Apple Watch Nano" or something like that.

4/5 -- two Uber notes, is he working with them? #5 makes me want to look into this Api/business.
 
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