Kevin Rose's 5 tech predictions for 2016

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Kinitari said:
The concern with the 100 smart phone units is going to be 1. Sub optimal experience 2. Limited capabilities.

The psvr will be the most mainstream of the quality vr experiences, for mostly the reason you highlighted, only cost is an issue.
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At the moment it's suboptimal but the tech will only get better. I think the mainstream will be more than content with the experience offered through cellphone VR for the barrier to entry.

You can buy those Google vr units at $99. That's not only accessible it's something you can buy as a gift without breaking the bank.

It's definitely the VR experience I can see catching on the most despite it never reaching the same quality as PC/console devices.
 
He's going to be right about VR.

It has niche audience and clunky user experience written all over it. The mass market will largely ignore the tech is my prediction.
 
Think he's wrong about VR in 2016, this year VR will do great, they'll sell a bunch of units, everyone will be going crazy about how good the technology is and how it must be experienced to be believed. 2017, 2018 is where we'll really start to see if it's just a fad or not.

Jury is still out on that for me, everything I've tried has been an awesome experience but I think devs are going to have a hard time creating content that's compelling enough to make you sit there in an isolation chamber for a number of hours without being so intense that you can't physically do so. It could easily turn into a "I'll try this for 10 minutes then watch something on TV" device.
 
ChouGoku said:
The problem with VR doubters is that they only see it as a gaming or entertainment peripheral rather than a whole new medium. Even if VR fails in gaming (which I doubt) I still think it's going to have major success in many different fields, from tourism to any type of business
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The problem with VR supporters is they make the claim that it's the future but the future could be 1000 years from now. Of course it's silly to think that VR won't some day somehow happen in some form, but having simply the future is such a huge goal post that it's hard to dispute. People calling it a fad aren't saying VR will never happen in the future; people calling it a fad are saying it's not happening now.
 
VR is the new "3D".

It'll be popular for about a year to 18 months but once it's "wow" factor wears off the general public will slowly stop wanting to strap on a headset every time they want to play games and just go back to things the old fashioned way.
 
dLMN8R said:
Kevin Rose thinking that AR will come before VR is pretty funny, since AR is technically far more difficult.

https://twitter.com/chetfaliszek/status/683059717292179456


Anyway, Kevin is a good investor, but terrible at making his own predictions about what people actually want.
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I wouldn't be surprised if magic leaps headsets come out this year

http://www.theverge.com/2015/10/20/9579167/magic-leap-manufacturing

Although what it is and how well it works is for the most part a secret the funding that it has recieved, especially by google has me pretty confident that this wont be shit.
 
TheLegendOfMart said:
VR is already a dud, they already tried once in the 90's.
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Technology has vastly improved since then and if you believe it comparable at all I don't think you've been following the progress in the industry.

NOLA_Gaffer said:
VR is the new "3D".

It'll be popular for about a year to 18 months but once it's "wow" factor wears off the general public will slowly stop wanting to strap on a headset every time they want to play games and just go back to things the old fashioned way.
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It's a completely new way to experience media. HDTV -> 3DTV is a marginal increase that does not dramatically change the viewing experience. The experience with VR can not be recreated anywhere else.

VR will begin things, and soon will be replaced/added upon by VR+AR once the technology pushes further.

Marty Chinn said:
The problem with VR supporters is they make the claim that it's the future but the future could be 1000 years from now. Of course it's silly to think that VR won't some day somehow happen in some form, but having simply the future is such a huge goal post that it's hard to dispute. People calling it a fad aren't saying VR will never happen in the future; people calling it a fad are saying it's not happening now.
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LOL. 1000 years from now? I hope you are exaggerating.
 
Here's what I want:

I want my Apple Watch hooked up to my brain to sense my mood. Also note the time of day, which it should being a watch and all. Then, when my mood is low, search backpage for an escort using my porn and facebook creeping history. Then use Uber's API to send a car to the escort and have her driven to me. Then I want her to cook me dinner based on my yelp reviews while I have VR sex with a man pretending to be a woman. After dinner is done, which is communicated via my smart oven, the uber car picks the escort back up and the apple watch registers a new baseline mood.
 
Kurdel said:
You know modern VR has nothing to do with that shit, right?
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They already tried and failed with VR

EIgocOo.jpg
 
ant_ said:
Technology has vastly improved since then and if you believe it comparable at all I don't think you've been following the progress in the industry.



It's a completely new way to experience media. HDTV -> 3DTV is a marginal increase that does not dramatically change the viewing experience. The experience with VR can not be recreated anywhere else.

VR will begin things, and soon will be replaced/added upon by VR+AR once the technology pushes further.
Click to expand...

What revolutionary things does VR bring that it didn't in the past?

You can look around with your head as a camera instead of right analogue stick.....and......?
 
ant_ said:
It's a completely new way to experience media. HDTV -> 3DTV is a marginal increase that does not dramatically change the viewing experience. The experience with VR can not be recreated anywhere else.

VR will begin things, and soon will be replaced/added upon by VR+AR once the technology pushes further.
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Of course, and the Kinect and Wii Remote were both new ways to experience videogames.

But at the end of the day the average consumer just wants to slump into a couch and play games without having to move anything past their thumbs.
 
TheLegendOfMart said:
VR is already a dud, they already tried once in the 90's.
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The tech is so much better these days that the experience is hardly comparable.

In general, I don't know if it's wise to say VR's going to be an utter dud, plain and simple. It might not reach mainstream success right away, but people will still be chipping away at making stuff for it.

Don't think of it as something like 3D where it's simply an add-on to another medium. VR is its own medium. People are interested in exploring the space as people were in early film and cinema. It's a really fascinating, all-encompassing proscenium break.
 
TheLegendOfMart said:
What revolutionary things does VR bring that it didn't in the past?

You can look around with your head as a camera instead of right analogue stick.....and......?
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Have you used modern VR before? If you truly believe it this simple than I'd love to see your reaction upon putting a headset on.

To answer your question - it gives you the illusion that you are there. In the world. Depth perception, movement, etc. It's an amazing experience. (Obviously I'm a huge believer)

NOLA_Gaffer said:
Of course, and the Kinect and Wii Remote were both new ways to experience videogames.

But at the end of the day the average consumer just wants to slump into a couch and play games without having to move anything past their thumbs.
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Those were new ways to control a traditional form of representing media (you were still controlling things on a TV). VR changes how you experience media. Two different things.

You can use VR while sitting on a couch.
 
TheLegendOfMart said:
What revolutionary things does VR bring that it didn't in the past?

You can look around with your head as a camera instead of right analogue stick.....and......?
Click to expand...

You should read up on Presence, and how it feels to use modern VR.

It's something you get when you try it for the first time.
 
TheLegendOfMart said:
What revolutionary things does VR bring that it didn't in the past?

You can look around with your head as a camera instead of right analogue stick.....and......?
Click to expand...

VR porn will drive sales and adoption. With adoption will come new genres of gaming we haven't even thought of yet.
 
Marty Chinn said:
The problem with VR supporters is they make the claim that it's the future but the future could be 1000 years from now. Of course it's silly to think that VR won't some day somehow happen in some form, but having simply the future is such a huge goal post that it's hard to dispute. People calling it a fad aren't saying VR will never happen in the future; people calling it a fad are saying it's not happening now.
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The doubters are usually solely focused on the entertainment aspect (games, movies). I don't think I've read one VR concern here that focuses on the business and training aspect of VR.
 
Caleb187 said:
VR porn will drive sales and adoption. With adoption will come new genres of gaming we haven't even thought of yet.
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And VR Porn is already achievable through cellphone VR and the tech for that will only get better.

Everyone already has a cellphone.

I am sticking to that being the mainstream solution with more technology savvy people option for PC experiences.

Both will have an audience.
 
DoctorWho said:
And VR Porn is already achievable through cellphone VR and the tech for that will only get better.

Everyone already has a cellphone.

I am sticking to that being the mainstream solution with more technology savvy people option for PC experiences.

Both will have an audience.
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Cellphone VR is still VR. The success of cellphone-based-VR will increase consumer success of the larger products. It's a gateway.
 
ant_ said:
Cellphone VR is still VR. The success of cellphone-based-VR will increase consumer success of the larger products. It's a gateway.
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Can't disagree with that.

I do think this thread is disregarding it for the most part though. When most people think VR they are thinking of the PC/Console options.

It really is the gateway drug.
 
Kurdel said:
You should read more about VR, you aren't informed enough to have this discussion.
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I know enough about VR to know it will be nothing more than a fad but you keep on keeping on thinking that I don't know enough just because I don't think it is the second coming of christ.

1) Wires
2) Input
3) Market segmentation with no unified API
4) Room to use it in
5) Cost

None of these have been solved since the last time they tried VR.
 
homeworkfilms said:
Anyone more familiar with Slack? Any idea why he is so bullish on that technology?
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Slack is the current VC darling, like Uber before it.

He's not going out on a limb.

Slack basically helped solved the email conundrum, using a chat client, instead of email alone for office communication.

Many people have done it before, but Slack works great since it has a great API and great design and features.
 
TheLegendOfMart said:
I know enough about VR to know it will be nothing more than a fad but you keep on keeping on thinking that I don't know enough just because I don't think it is the second coming of christ.

1) Wires
2) Input
3) Market segmentation with no unified API
4) Room to use it in
5) Cost

None of these have been solved since the last time they tried VR.
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"Solved" is incredibly disingenuous. Automobiles and planes and toasters haven't been "solved" either. To ignore the vast, vast improvements in all of those things in the VR segment is complete nonsense.
 
VR and 3D inheritently face the same obstacle at the consumer level; it only truly benefits media meant to be viewed from the 1st person. This makes the price and usability problems sky-rocket when its consumer level application is so limited. It's why 3D movies aren't more immersive than watching it 2D.

As for games, sure it could add to FPS or RPGs w/ a 1st person perspective like The Elder Scrolls. But what is VR going to add to Starcraft or League of Legends? Outside of 1st person games it adds as much as the 3DS did. No one plays it in 3D, even with the enhancement of the new 3DS.

There's a reason most 3D TV displays in stores show random National Geographic type footage in 3D. It's meant to be us looking at the wildlife in 1st person, which is the only area it truly adds to the experience. Until the price comes way down on the tech it just isn't going to be worth the money.
 
RurouniZel said:
VR and 3D inheritently face the same obstacle at the consumer level; it only truly benefits media meant to be viewed from the 1st person. This makes the price and usability problems sky-rocket when its consumer level application is so limited. It's why 3D movies aren't more immersive than watching it 2D.

As for games, sure it could add to FPS or RPGs w/ a 1st person perspective like The Elder Scrolls. But what is VR going to add to Starcraft or League of Legends? Outside of 1st person games it adds as much as the 3DS did. No one plays it in 3D, even with the enhancement of the new 3DS.

There's a reason most 3D TV displays in stores show random National Geographic type footage in 3D. It's meant to be us looking at the wildlife in 1st person, which is the only area it truly adds to the experience. Until the price comes way down on the tech it just isn't going to be worth the money.
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I think your first complaint is the most valid. I agree with you - that is VRs biggest problem. It is largely a 1st person experience and the biggest need is to figure out how to get more people to experience it.

The second issue is a software issue. DOTA, League, etc. are not games designed for VR. Games will need to be designed for VR, not adapted to VR.
 
Why is he still so bullish on Uber? Aren't states basically beginning to push back against their supposed "independent contractor" model?
 
border said:
Why is he still so bullish on Uber? Aren't states basically beginning to push back against their supposed "independent contractor" model?
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Because Uber is thinking more than just taxi replacements.

They're thinking about creating an API with the Uber tech for various things like logistics.

Taxi replacements are just starting point. They will go driverless when autonomous car tech gets better too.
 
entremet said:
Slack is the current VC darling, like Uber before it.

He's not going out on a limb.

Slack basically helped solved the email conundrum, using a chat client, instead of email alone for office communication.

Many people have done it before, but Slack works great since it has a great API and great design and features.
Click to expand...
Slacks api is above and beyond any other mainstream chat client like it, like you said. Every dev shop I know uses it for internal messaging, and write bots/hooks for it on the regular
 
ant_ said:
LOL. 1000 years from now? I hope you are exaggerating.
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Of course I think it'll happen in less than 1000 years, but it's simply said to illustrate how wide of a range it is when you simply say it's the future.

ChouGoku said:
The doubters are usually solely focused on the entertainment aspect (games, movies). I don't think I've read one VR concern here that focuses on the business and training aspect of VR.
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At a mass consumer level, that's where my primary doubts are. At the business and training level, they've already been using it to some degree already. I don't see some sudden paradigm shift that's going to happen because of Oculus and all the other headsets this year or anytime soon. I'm sure there's going to be far more practical reasons for business use, but you'll still have to get people to develop software for these businesses and convince businesses to invest the money in the hardware and software to utilize it. It's an easier sell for business usage but it's not an easy sell. If anything, I think AR is much more compelling for businesses.
 
As someone who has never been into 3D gimmicks and having used a Rift, I really expect it to do well, eventually. Assuming hardcore folks and a loyal following develop over the next two years (2016, 2017), it will "blossom" eventually as the hardware continues to improve and costs are reduced.
 
Slack is 21st century IRC for those wondering what the hell it is. The biggest difference from my short time using it is that all messages are stored server-side. You'll always be able to refer to the message history for every channel listed on your Slack. Message input also supports Markdown, formatting for text that's far simpler to use than HTML and can be freely edited. The client automatically embeds videos, images, links and files via drag and drop or just by interpreting URL.

It combines the real time UX of a chat room with the persistence of a forum. A NeoNeoGAF might be built on Slack.
 
Kinitari said:
Slacks api is above and beyond any other mainstream chat client like it, like you said. Every dev shop I know uses it for internal messaging, and write bots/hooks for it on the regular
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Hipchat does a lot of stuff better than it, especially if you're using other Atlassian products too. But it definitely doesn't have the same rep
 
ant_ said:
I think your first complaint is the most valid. I agree with you - that is VRs biggest problem. It is largely a 1st person experience and the biggest need is to figure out how to get more people to experience it.

The second issue is a software issue. DOTA, League, etc. are not games designed for VR. Games will need to be designed for VR, not adapted to VR.
Click to expand...

I get where you're coming from but certain genres are going to be difficult (if not impossible) to adapt to VR without it amounting to nothing more than a flashier presentation. It would mean just leaving genres behind, which I doubt will happen.
 
border said:
Why is he still so bullish on Uber? Aren't states basically beginning to push back against their supposed "independent contractor" model?
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Not in any real capacity. Governments are finding themselves unable to really push back on Uber. Uber is also diversifying. If they create a good public api platform, it can establish itself as a sort of if Google maps for development. In that, other companies will use it's data to create unique applications and or features for their apps.

Think about pizza delivery for example. Imagine they make an application that can tie into ubers "delivery certified" drivers. They then could have all their deliveries handled by Uber, and their customers could get an eta and see on the map where their pizza is.

Silly example, but mostly to highlight what a good platform can do.
 
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