LittleBigAgendas: Why didn't the mass market overlook LBP?

DCharlie said:
you are missing so many points and making so many jumps to get to your profitability figures though that it's hard to not take issue.

you are confusing revenue with profit too, and you are missing big chunks out of the pie such as Retails cut (amongst other things)
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Retail already get their cut when they buy their game in bulk from the manufacturers. When they sell the games for $60, they didnt buy it for $60. They probably bought it for $45-$50.
 
Tideas said:
but we're not talking about a UE3 game. We're talking about LBP. The engine was made in-house. Therefore, the cost was just supplies and salaries.

I mean, think of this way, all the cost to make the game is up-front cost. Salaries. Supplies. Sony tells MM. Okay, you got $10 million to make this game. MM takes that money and use it to pay the salaries and building cost.

Game comes out. Let's say Sony sells each copies to stores for $50 per disc. Great. Let's say, per disc, the costs of everything else is $10 (printing, shipping, etc). Okay, that's $40.

So say you sell 500k copies. That's $20 million in revenue. Say they spend $20 million in ads. Now say, after the first round of selling to retailers 500k, the 2nd round they sell just 300k. That's $12 million in revenue.

From that point on, every disc they sell to retailers is pure profit. Once the game is complete, the only thing that takes away from the revenue per disc is the pressing, printing, shipping, and overhead of managing all that. This is where mass-scale economy comes in.

A little generalized, but like I said. From a profit point of view, it's not a bomba as many of you detractors tend to make it out to be.
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:lol you think sony takes home $40 of every copy? lol, give up already

gamecost.png


http://www.costik.com/whycost.html

etc
 
Tideas said:
Retail already get their cut when they buy their game in bulk from the manufacturers. When they sell the games for $60, they didnt buy it for $60. They probably bought it for $45-$50.
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Yes, but you didn't take account of that in your original calculation... ie the sales x value part.
 
Tideas said:
Retail already get their cut when they buy their game in bulk from the manufacturers. When they sell the games for $60, they didnt buy it for $60. They probably bought it for $45-$50.
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someone (employee) said in novembers sales thread for usa how gamestop makes $8 at best per game in the USA.

on the other hand, in europe, due to strenght of euro/gbp compared to USD, they make more than that...
 
spwolf said:
he said revenue, and yes they do... more than $40.

your charts proves it... :lol
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revenue is pointless, so many costs to come out of it, and hes using it in terms of how much profit sony are gonna make
 
acm2000 said:
:lol you think sony takes home $40 of every copy? lol, give up already

gamecost.png
Click to expand...

this little graph is wrong because it takes everything absolute. There's no such thing as absolute when the game is ALREADY FINISHED.

Also, retail markup is not a cost. Sony does not lose money because retailers markup their games. Retailers gain money from markup. but it doesn't matter, because once sold to retailers, the game is consider sold.

acm2000 said:
revenue is pointless, so many costs to come out of it, and hes using it in terms of how much profit sony are gonna make
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yeah, and profit = revenue - cost. 80% of the cost in the graph are upfront/absolute. They have no reference/affect to how many copies a game has sold.

Get it?
 
he said revenue, and yes they do... more than $40.
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as previously stated, REVENUE != profit and most of the costs in the chart would be removed from the revenue therefore reflecting on a final profit.

$40 is what might go back to Sony (i don't think that is true, but lets go with it) but that is REVENUE, NOT profit.

Not the same thing.

yeah, and profit = revenue - cost. 80% of the cost in the graph are upfront/absolute.
Click to expand...

okay thhhhhhhhats me out, it's 4am and i'm spent.
actually, no - let's go with your statement.
So 80% of the costs in the graph are upfront and absolute - great. What do you pay those with? And if 80% of the costs need to be paid, what does that leave you with? You already have your equation, just plug in the data!
 
I said in the OP that I thought this game would be a commercial success for MM (they are only a small team after all).

The question was, would it meet the expectations Sony had for the title? Would it reach out from the hardcore and sell into the expanded audience?

Sony expected it to be the biggest title of the year.
It isn't.

Sony expected it to sell hardware.
It hasn't.

Why is it failing to meet these expectations?
 
CowGirl said:
I said in the OP that I thought this game would be a commercial success for MM (they are only a small team after all).

The question was, would it meet the expectations Sony had for the title? Would it reach out from the hardcore and sell into the expanded audience?

Sony expected it to be the biggest title of the year.
It isn't.

Sony expected it to sell hardware.
It hasn't.

Why is it failing to meet these expectations?
Click to expand...

1st point ) too early to prove or disprove
2nd point ) can't prove or disprove

DCharlie said:
as previously stated, REVENUE != profit and most of the costs in the chart would be removed from the revenue therefore reflecting on a final profit.

$40 is what might go back to Sony (i don't think that is true, but lets go with it) but that is REVENUE, NOT profit.

Not the same thing.



okay thhhhhhhhats me out, it's 4am and i'm spent.
actually, no - let's go with your statement.
So 80% of the costs in the graph are upfront and absolute - great. What do you pay those with? And if 80% of the costs need to be paid, what does that leave you with? You already have your equation, just plug in the data!
Click to expand...

gah, I already went over this. So those 80% up front cost. Let's say they equal to about $20 million. Add in another $10 million budget to the MM team. That's $30 Million up front cost.

All Sony has to do is sell enough disc to retailers at $40 disc ( $50 - $10 of pressing, distribution, overhead management) to generate $30 million in revenue. Once they've sold enough disc to go over teh $30 mil, every disc beyond will be pure profit.

Do a little math and that's 750k discs sold to retailers.
 
DCharlie said:
you don't pack a game into a hardware bundle if you think it won't move units SURELY?
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where's the packin in the US? The only official packins so far are in the Euros and Japan.

And because Euro dont provide HW figures, you can't prove or disprove.

As for Japan, can you prove or disprove that LBP isn't moving the 15K+ hardware for the past 3 weeks?
 
Here's hard evidence why LBP didn't flop.
743,110 different people have played "The World's Fastest Sackboy".
So that would be 743,110 people that have went online with LBP and played this one level.

Edit: That would be 743k PSN accounts.
 
where's the packin in the US? The only official packins so far are in the Euros and Japan.

And because Euro dont provide HW figures, you can't prove or disprove.

As for Japan, can you prove or disprove that LBP isn't moving the 15K+ hardware for the past 3 weeks?
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you missed the point of the question which was whether Sony thought the game would move hardware : so , we have official pack ins in two of the three continents - i'd think that that is a sign that sony believe the game would ship machines.

and if i have to disprove that LBP isn't moving 15k+ hardware because of LBP ? you can't be serious right? we had two pack ins - GT5Spec 3 and LBP. Regardless of sales, you think that a NEW SPEC Ps3 for Japan (80 gig unit) with LBP packed in is a sign that sony don't think it will move units? REALLY?
 
CowGirl said:
I said in the OP that I thought this game would be a commercial success for MM (they are only a small team after all).

The question was, would it meet the expectations Sony had for the title? Would it reach out from the hardcore and sell into the expanded audience?

Sony expected it to be the biggest title of the year.
It isn't.

Sony expected it to sell hardware.
It hasn't.

Why is it failing to meet these expectations?
Click to expand...

1. Because it's only available on a $399 console during an economic downturn.
2. Because, despite the amazing depth of the level builder and gorgeous art direction, it's still a cutesy platformer, and, in general, people who are willing and able to pay $399 for a video game console are not the type of people who will play cutesy platformers, with or without a level editor. Not that there's anything wrong with cutesy platformers -- it's just that the demographic for the game doesn't match the demographic for the hardware, mostly due to the price.
3. The marketing hasn't been very good. I think Sony should have a marketing push in December that spends a lot of time showing off how you can create and share levels. This is the game's greatest strength, and Sony needs to *really* push it. But even if they did that, they still have that $399 hurdle to overcome.
<edit>4. It actually isn't really bombing.</edit>

It's too bad LBP isn't a multi-platform title.
 
MoeEazy said:
Here's hard evidence why LBP didn't flop.
743,110 different people have played "The World's Fastest Sackboy".
So that would be 743,110 people that have went online with LBP and played this one level.
Click to expand...

Yup, sounds like a TOTAL BOMB alright.

:|
 
MoeEazy said:
Here's hard evidence why LBP didn't flop.
743,110 different people have played "The World's Fastest Sackboy".
So that would be 743,110 people that have went online with LBP and played this one level.
Click to expand...

Are those different, or can they count the same # twice? If they are different, the number still shrinks as people have multiple PSN accounts for their PS3's. Although ... not everyone with a PS3 plays online so who knows. Either way, are we sure that the number is for different people and won't count the same person twice?
 
Are we sure # of plays is based on a unique number of visitors, and doesn't count replays?

Still..and although it sounds like a trophy level..its creator must be proud :p
 
MoeEazy said:
So that would be 743,110 people that have went online with LBP and played this one level.
Click to expand...
743k consoles? 743k unique logins? 743k plays?

Because based on what they've said about their online penetration (60%) they'd be looking at well over a million sales to have that many copies online. (Actually, far more than that because you'd have to assume everyone had played that level)
 
LBP commercial should be Iphone's app commercial.

a step by step simple creation of the lvl and at last part play it.

have the narrator of LBP talk too
 
Fenderputty said:
Are those different, or can they count the same # twice? If they are different, the number still shrinks as people have multiple PSN accounts for their PS3's. Although ... not everyone with a PS3 plays online so who knows. Either way, are we sure that the number is for different people?
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Ok, why would people play thought the same level with a different account?
 
gofreak said:
Are we sure # of plays is based on a unique number of visitors, and doesn't count replays?

Still..and although it sounds like a trophy level..its creator must be proud :p
Click to expand...

I would imagine that each person can be counted twice or more. I don't think I've played the level. That being said, even if there are repeats, that's a lot of people when you consider not everyone plays online and not everyone that has played online has played that level.

It isn't totally representative of the actual #'s, but I think it helps show the game isn't a "bomba"
 
Loudninja said:
Ok, why would people play thought the same level with a different account?
Click to expand...

My Fiance has an account on my PS3. I have multiple accounts as well. I almost always use my one account, and I have no Idea why someone would, but I'm sure it has to happen. Either way, that's two accounts that could play the same level even though I've only bought one game and have only one PS3.
 
I blame the marketing... the german tv spot, is a kick in your face.. its plain horrible with a super annoying singing male voice at the end ...
 
So Tideas, let's examine a prediction you made in an earlier thread:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=12051572&postcount=164

Tideas said:
I will make this claim right now.

Little Big Planet has the potential to be this generation's GTA. Meaning, it's accessible to both the hardcore and the casual and will do great with both side and will sell a bazillion.
Click to expand...

Do you think the current sales performance is matching this expectation? Or is it falling a little short?
 
MoeEazy said:
Here's hard evidence why LBP didn't flop.
743,110 different people have played "The World's Fastest Sackboy".
So that would be 743,110 people that have went online with LBP and played this one level.
Click to expand...


wtf? thats huge... even if number of plays, thats fucking huge.
Isnt only something like 50-60% of PS3 users online - have psn account? And then what % of those actually will play online?

I cant believe some level is played 740k times online... those are fucking crazy numbers.
 
gofreak said:
Weallllly? I'm gonna have to test that out. Cos that number seems really really high if that's the case.
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its published level from some user?

thats just too crazy... way too crazy...
 
*slowly approach MoeEazy* *slaps* (i'm CoLaN86 :P)

Anyway, LBP bombed. A bomb full of joy, fun and awesome gameplay. I feel sorry for the people that aren't going to play it, it's a pure blast ...especially with friends, offline and online. I didn't expect a good single player campaign, and was pleasantly surprised when i played all the levels made by Media Molecule

Seriously, it's a winner, and it will be a winner for many months ahead

spwolf said:
its published level from some user?

thats just too crazy... way too crazy...
Click to expand...

Yes, and there are a LOT of user created levels with hundreds of thousands of playthrough
 
[Nintex] said:
LBP 'haters' or how you call them, tried to argue with the SDF about this game. But every time someone dared to enter a thread and say something like: "You know, maybe this level isn't all that great", "the jumping looks kinda odd" or "this advertising is rather poor" they would be covered in shit and shot on sight. So now that it isn't the proclaimed 10/10!!! BEST GAME EVAR(you'd think that fans on all sides would learn something from Zelda TP, Halo 3 and GTAIV) and PS3 fanatics moved on to the next year of PS3 they finally have a chance to say: "We told you so" and some of them just aren't that subtle in delivering the message.
Click to expand...

Sounds like all the Killzone 2 threads now. Don't get me wrong I'm excited for the game but it kind of sucks when people have legitimate complaints can't voice their opinion.
 
Well I'll be buying it soon and I've been trying to convince my friends to buy it too, but so far no luck. I really don't understand why they don't want it, it has everything in it that they like. Oh well, I'll enjoy it at least.
 
Hmm, it's pretty impossible to test if my multiple plays are counting as one play or not.. the play number keeps jumping around, sometimes it doesn't update immediately either..

I'd be very surprised if that number wasn't counting replays, but anything's possible I guess.
 
spwolf said:
its published level from some user?

thats just too crazy... way too crazy...
Click to expand...

Whats worse...is that its total shit. No offense to the author, but there are thousands of better levels out there that will never even see 500 plays because of the fucked up 'cool level' system.
 
CowGirl said:
So Tideas, let's examine a prediction you made in an earlier thread:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=12051572&postcount=164



Do you think the current sales performance is matching this expectation? Or is it falling a little short?
Click to expand...

How does his prediction pertain to the questions you pose in the OP? Sony's biggest title to date on Ps3 has sold what 3 to 4 million copies most of which were due to a pack in. I don't know or think it will reach those numbers but I see no reason why it can't. So it could still end up being their biggest game. What were you expecting it to sell 2 million copies at launch. I doubt they even shipped that many world wide.
 
CoLaN said:
Yes, and there are a LOT of user created levels with hundreds of thousands of playthrough
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wow.... thats crazy numbers... even if counts every play 10x, thats crazy numbers for playing user created levels...

thats just mind shattering.

there goes the thread... LBP will be fucking game of the generation.
 
Farnack said:
You read what I said? Did Fallout 3 have a last minute release date push back?

No. None of that.

Fallout 3 released when it dated. LBP was delayed for an unknown amount of time to fix that music.
Click to expand...

People who wanted the game paid attention. It's a hardcore game, so is frontloaded accordingly.

So what are you really saying here? You think that LBP is going to blow past a quarter mill on November's NPD?
 
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