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[Mafia] NX Launch Night |OT| Back of the Line!

Sorian

Banned
Would you all mind humoring me for a bit while we wait? So, we lynch Kark, he flips mafia. Perfect!

But another possibility, we lynch him and he flips ordinary. Do you think that says anything about the people that did or did not vote for him?

Or we lynch him and he flips as a town PR, then I'll go kick his ass in real life.
 
Would you all mind humoring me for a bit while we wait? So, we lynch Kark, he flips mafia. Perfect!

But another possibility, we lynch him and he flips ordinary. Do you think that says anything about the people that did or did not vote for him?

Or we lynch him and he flips as a town PR, then I'll go kick his ass in real life.

I don't mind waiting, but like I said, you're inviting second guessing. It's a more reasonable approach, though.

If he flips ordinary, I'll take full responsibility. Well, not my personally, but I will accept that we could have handled it better. However, it really stinks...

If he flips PR, I will flip all the tables in my apartment over.
 

Karkador

Banned
Back. Comments:


But, and as much as higher numbers are good for town, two players dying (day/night) does give us a slightly smaller pool to choose from. And it's not like mafia has any idea who the PRs are, so it's just blind luck.

That said, let's vote Salva.

The main benefit I see to not lynching Day 1 is that, assuming we'll continue the game with 1/1 kills per Day/Night, it buys us an extra day. It doesn't seem so important right now, but we have everything except hindsight right now.

I'm open to discussing the pros/cons of a smaller or larger pool of Town voters, but let me just end this response here and move on to the next point.


Ah and that's where I disagree. The people who have created a pattern, talked, made claims, had to defend themselves. Those people do actually provide information, past that if someone is not contributing to town in any tangible way, day 1 is the perfect time to policy lynch them, when there is little to go on anyway and one player is as good as any other. In a game this small, I'd caution the second route but the game probably has less scum because of the smaller start size so that tactic is still viable IMO.

What patterns? I read through the thread, and it's mostly bullshitting about Nintendo, and ganging up on Darryl because it's Darryl. I get that these things are fun, and pretty much the only thing people will do on a day with no information, but what's any of it really worth? Nobody has established much of anything yet. We can establish things in this Day, here and now - but voting for a lynch? It's totally senseless.

Honestly, I hate to keep bringing up metagame reasoning regarding other games, but I've watched 5 of these things run their course from behind the scenes, and the current meta on GAF is that Day 1 is largely a meaningless circus. The large majority of assertions made about other players at the start are dead wrong, no matter how good they think they are at hunting for it.


My proposal is, if you absolutely need to lynch someone today to feel like Town did something, then have a regular non-PR volunteer themselves to die. The motivations for why people will or will not vote on that should give you at least something more to go on than just picking on a random person.


Sure.

I said it earlier, I was waiting for a player to do something crazy and unnecessary, but I honestly didn't expect it to happen. Yet, you set yourself up perfectly. I'm 80-90% certain you're scum.

Then you're dead wrong, and the sad part is that when I flip Town, you wont have to answer for it tomorrow because you'll just feign general Town ignorance, or blame me for bad play.

In other words, a lynch on Day 1 doesn't matter.

If you're town and you know you're town, you know that sacrificing yourself is meaningless. It's even more meaningless if you have a role that won't offer up any additional information. An ordinary kid would just keep to himself, discuss things as if he weren't really a part of this whole thing, and try not to draw too much attention to himself because he doesn't want to die.

How is sacrificing yourself any less meaningful than sacrificing a random person for a lynch?

You've jumped out in front of the car. You're either a very foolish ordinary townie, because frankly these kinds of plays are completely unnecessary for a townie and as someone who has been in the community as long as you it's a given you know this already, or an overblown play by a no-fun-allowed.

Let's cut through doldrums of ordinary Day 1 play. Chances are very high that if Town lynches someone today, they're going to be Town - and a high chance that they will be a valuable PR.

I don't want to hear this wishy washy BS, "well, they could have been bad, we don't know". Why wait for the groupthink to settle on crucifying someone for silly, irrelevant reasons?
If we're going to do something stupid right now, let's own up to it and get the vote going on someone who is claiming Town, with no pressure put on them at all to do so. I want to see who will still openly vote for this decision.


Truth be told, I would be completely ok with lynching you even if you really are ordinary, because we wouldn't lose anything of worth, yet the chances are high that you're trying to put yourself out there so we think you're being noble or trying to gain some cred. And, as you said, we wouldn't gain much information even if we did lynch a PR, so you're as good a vote as any.

This cynical outlook about Fun/Town members dying is giving me a severe lack of #funtells.

I'm just going to openly ask you, Launch.

Are you "No Fun"? Are you Mafia? Are you Scum?
 

batsnacks

Member
I will 100% openly vote to lynch Kark and in fact already have!
My proposal is, if you absolutely need to lynch someone today to feel like Town did something, then have a regular non-PR volunteer themselves to die. The motivations for why people will or will not vote on that should give you at least something more to go on than just picking on a random person.
If you are willing to take (from your alleged point of view) a 100% chance town kill in lieu of an approximate ~74% chance of town kill (on a random) then you are not town!

Town does not kill 100% town (self) in the stead of 74% town (random guy)!

Town does not role claim when doing so will only help mafia find our power roles!

I found mafia and Kark is mafia!
 

Sorian

Banned
I don't mind waiting, but like I said, you're inviting second guessing. It's a more reasonable approach, though.

If he flips ordinary, I'll take full responsibility. Well, not my personally, but I will accept that we could have handled it better. However, it really stinks...

If he flips PR, I will flip all the tables in my apartment over.

That wasn't my question, I asked what you would think of people who did vote for Kark and what you would think of people who did not vote for Kark, if he did come up ordinary town. I'm not so foolish to think that leading a day 1 lynch on someone is damning evidence of being scum (though it could be an indicator when placed with other evidence).

What patterns? I read through the thread, and it's mostly bullshitting about Nintendo, and ganging up on Darryl because it's Darryl. I get that these things are fun, and pretty much the only thing people will do on a day with no information, but what's any of it really worth? Nobody has established much of anything yet. We can establish things in this Day, here and now - but voting for a lynch? It's totally senseless.

The motivations for why people will or will not vote on that should give you at least something more to go on than just picking on a random person.

Let's cut through doldrums of ordinary Day 1 play. Chances are very high that if Town lynches someone today, they're going to be Town - and a high chance that they will be a valuable PR.

You are free to answer my question as well. What do you think it would mean about an individual who did vote for you and an individual who did not vote for you, if your ordinary claim is true?

Also, why do you believe that the odds are "very high" that we would hit a PR?

In regards to your very first point that I quoted, you must not have read the thread very well if you see absolutely nothing. We've had a little side story of batsnacks arguing with burbeting. We've had Ouro making a claim against Salva, back pedeling on the reason, but still holding fast at thinking that it means something. We've had at least two people who I think have been keeping up with the thread but have posted very vaguely and have since disappeared. Quite a lot is developing if you actually take the time to look.
 

Karkador

Banned
I will 100% openly vote to lynch Kark and in fact already have!

If you are willing to take (from your alleged point of view) a 100% chance town kill in lieu of an approximate ~74% chance of town kill (on a random) then you are not town!

Town does not kill 100% town (self) in the stead of 74% town (random guy)!

Town does not role claim when doing so will only help mafia find our power roles!

I found mafia and Kark is mafia!


I think it's a higher chance than 74%, if you're not just giving a random number.

But weirder still is the paradox you're presenting. If I was anything but Town, how would voting on myself be "in favor of killing Town 100%"?
 
My proposal is, if you absolutely need to lynch someone today to feel like Town did something, then have a regular non-PR volunteer themselves to die. The motivations for why people will or will not vote on that should give you at least something more to go on than just picking on a random person.

I accept your volunteering.

Then you're dead wrong, and the sad part is that when I flip Town, you wont have to answer for it tomorrow because you'll just feign general Town ignorance, or blame me for bad play.

In other words, a lynch on Day 1 doesn't matter.

I've seen similar plays in my team playing and hosting. I don't think it's an unreasonable expectation that this is a strategy a mafia would try to utilize. I won't feign ignorance. If I have to defend myself, I'll just cite plays that Tim and other scum have done in the past.

How is sacrificing yourself any less meaningful than sacrificing a random person for a lynch?

It's very meaningful. We didn't ask for a scapegoat, then suddenly we have one.

Let's cut through doldrums of ordinary Day 1 play. Chances are very high that if Town lynches someone today, they're going to be Town - and a high chance that they will be a valuable PR.

I don't want to hear this wishy washy BS, "well, they could have been bad, we don't know". Why wait for the groupthink to settle on crucifying someone for silly, irrelevant reasons?
If we're going to do something stupid right now, let's own up to it and get the vote going on someone who is claiming Town, with no pressure put on them at all to do so. I want to see who will still openly vote for this decision.

So your argument hinges on us regretting our decision once we've lynched a townie?

I don't know what you've been reading thus far, but I would have no regrets on lynching you this day phase and the town shouldn't have any regrets about lynching you, either. This whole thing stinks to high heaven and I will gladly accept responsibility. If the town wants to lynch me after you flip town, that's fine; I'll deal with that when it comes to it. But for right now, lynching you is better than choosing someone at random who could be a PR. You're either mafia or ordinary, and either of those choices is preferable to a possible PR.

This cynical outlook about Fun/Town members dying is giving me a severe lack of #funtells.

I'm just going to openly ask you, Launch.

Are you "No Fun"? Are you Mafia? Are you Scum?

lol you're going to try to snake your way out of this by pinning it on me?

No, I'm not scum. I don't have any proof to that effect, but I'm playing this game the way I always have, looking for tells and stuff I can pick at. I wasn't expecting anyone to come out so soon with some weird shit, but this is some seriously weird shit.

That wasn't my question, I asked what you would think of people who did vote for Kark and what you would think of people who did not vote for Kark, if he did come up ordinary town. I'm not so foolish to think that leading a day 1 lynch on someone is damning evidence of being scum (though it could be an indicator when placed with other evidence).

Ok, I didn't know you wanted a specific answer lol

I would think of what I think of myself. Kark came off as extremely suspicious and it was a decent to good gamble that he was scum. Even if he's ordinary, he's just ordinary. It's hard to say what I would think, because I've seen all kinds of shit spectating mafia. Honestly, I can't tell you right now. Logic dictates that if he were town, the mafia would have been a major part of the people that voted him out; yet it's not entirely conclusive, just like most of the stuff in this game.

You're welcome to suspect me if you'd like afterwards, but I'd at least hope you have that good a reasoning to suspect me.
 

batsnacks

Member
I think it's a higher chance than 74%, if you're not just giving a random number.

But weirder still is the paradox you're presenting. If I was anything but Town, how would voting on myself be "in favor of killing Town 100%"?

4 mafia in a 15 player game seems normal unless its 3 and they have crazy powers, so about 26% of randomly hitting mafia. I think the ability to talk things out for up to 72 hours probably increases our chances to be better than completely random.

And I meant that you were alleging you were town, so if you know you are town, which you allege you do, then choosing to lynch yourself is 100% in favor of killing town.
 

Sorian

Banned
Ok, I didn't know you wanted a specific answer lol

I would think of what I think of myself. Kark came off as extremely suspicious and it was a decent to good gamble that he was scum. Even if he's ordinary, he's just ordinary. It's hard to say what I would think, because I've seen all kinds of shit spectating mafia. Honestly, I can't tell you right now. Logic dictates that if he were town, the mafia would have been a major part of the people that voted him out; yet it's not entirely conclusive, just like most of the stuff in this game.

You're welcome to suspect me if you'd like afterwards, but I'd at least hope you have that good a reasoning to suspect me.

A little bit vague for my tastes but I just wanted your thoughts on that matter in writing. I probably will suspect you if he flips town, just like I'm sure I'll have suspicions on me if he flips mafia. It's all in the game and that's fine.

It's also crossed my mind that we know next to nothing about this game. Are we entirely certain there are ordinary roles?

I'm fairly certain. It seems misleading to include a role PM in the OP that is not actually in the game.
 
I'm not saying that to fish, honestly, but I'm just saying don't take that sample PM for granted. It doesn't necessarily mean there are ordinary kids.
 

Ourobolus

Banned
Sorian said:
We've had Ouro making a claim against Salva, back pedeling on the reason, but still holding fast at thinking that it means something.

I wouldn't read much into it. It's pretty much what I said at face value.
 
A little bit vague for my tastes but I just wanted your thoughts on that matter in writing. I probably will suspect you if he flips town, just like I'm sure I'll have suspicions on me if he flips mafia. It's all in the game and that's fine.



I'm fairly certain. It seems misleading to include a role PM in the OP that is not actually in the game.

What exactly do you want me to expand upon? I don't mind elaborating, but I'd like to know what specifically.
 

Sorian

Banned
I wouldn't read much into it. It's pretty much what I said at face value.

I wouldn't be playing right if I didn't read into everything.

What exactly do you want me to expand upon? I don't mind elaborating, but I'd like to know what specifically.

Nothing without me putting words in your mouth. You gave your honest answer that you didn't know and you provided me with the logical answer that mafia would try to lump into a vote to make sure someone they know is town died. I just wanted you to say what you thought on the matter.
 

Karkador

Banned
You are free to answer my question as well. What do you think it would mean about an individual who did vote for you and an individual who did not vote for you, if your ordinary claim is true?

I wouldn't say it's as binary as the obvious "If you voted for me, you're scum" - which is why I really, really think people need to justify their vote with reasoning. I think we can all agree that people talking can generate information. But let's get people talking and voting and justifying their reasoning on a specific thing, rather than just the chaos of Day 1 chatter.

Also, why do you believe that the odds are "very high" that we would hit a PR?

Hold on, re-read that, because I said "very high" for Town in general, and "high" for Town PR (the latter being meant to be lower than the former)

Mafia is, by general design of the game, the minority of the players. If our lynch was to simply pull names out of a bag (and it might as well be), the probability of hitting Town is naturally very high. Since there are a few other forces in play (mafia players defending each other, groupthink, etc.), I'd say the chance of hitting Town is even higher than the basic "pulled out of a bag" probability would tell us.

As for the chances of hitting a Town PR, I don't know how to explain that one so objectively, but holy shit do we on GAF have a tendency of lynching important PRs for no good reason. It might have something to do with Town PRs having more of a nervous and over-compensating reaction to someone wanting to take their cool role away.

In regards to your very first point that I quoted, you must not have read the thread very well if you see absolutely nothing. We've had a little side story of batsnacks arguing with burbeting. We've had Ouro making a claim against Salva, back pedeling on the reason, but still holding fast at thinking that it means something. We've had at least two people who I think have been keeping up with the thread but have posted very vaguely and have since disappeared. Quite a lot is developing if you actually take the time to look.

I'll re-read the thread and look closer, but my proposal stands.
 
Nothing without me putting words in your mouth. You gave your honest answer that you didn't know and you provided me with the logical answer that mafia would try to lump into a vote to make sure someone they know is town died. I just wanted you to say what you thought on the matter.

The truth is, I'll think about it when we get that far. I think the reasoning behind the votes and the way they change votes is more telling than the actual votes, i.e. people coming off busses or similar actions by mafia. Whatever I have to say in response to the lynch, it will mostly be in retrospect. It's hard to tell you right now how I'll think when it happens.
 
all+in+the+game+yo.gif
 

Sorian

Banned
Hold on, re-read that, because I said "very high" for Town in general, and "high" for Town PR (the latter being meant to be lower than the former)

Mafia is, by general design of the game, the minority of the players. If our lynch was to simply pull names out of a bag (and it might as well be), the probability of hitting Town is naturally very high. Since there are a few other forces in play (mafia players defending each other, groupthink, etc.), I'd say the chance of hitting Town is even higher than the basic "pulled out of a bag" probability would tell us.

As for the chances of hitting a Town PR, I don't know how to explain that one so objectively, but holy shit do we on GAF have a tendency of lynching important PRs for no good reason. It might have something to do with Town PRs having more of a nervous and over-compensating reaction to someone wanting to take their cool role away.

You're right, I did read what you said wrong. My mistake. I'd still take my chances. Odds are heavy we hit an ordinary townie, on day 1, those odds are fine by me.

Right, but you of all people should know about tunneling ;)

Tunneling in an actual game of mafia isn't as dangerous as a game of ONUW. It can actually be more beneficial early on to the other players. It can show you who is an ineffective scum hunter or is scum hiding in that disguise.
 

Sorian

Banned
Also, I'm pretty keen on how Kark is playing up the whole "GAF tends to fuck up" angle. He's trying to make us back down.

If I vote for Kark, here is why. He's said multiple times in this thread how he hates to bring up the meta discussion and then he keeps bringing up meta discussion to illustrate his points to me. He's using evidence he doesn't like to scare me away from a stance I've taken. That's actually something that smells.
 

Karkador

Banned
Fair enough, no more meta discussion from me.

With that said, the odds of hitting Town for this game right now are high. Without anyone (save for Masons or something) knowing anything, the odds of hitting Town PR are also a lot higher than I would like.

Now, you can jump down people's throats for any little thing they've said, or you can discuss and reason a vote on me, voluntary Town Ordinary Kid. No matter what happens, I think this is more useful for Town.
 
Fair enough, no more meta discussion from me.

With that said, the odds of hitting Town for this game right now are high. Without anyone (save for Masons or something) knowing anything, the odds of hitting Town PR are also a lot higher than I would like.

Now, you can jump down people's throats for any little thing they've said, or you can discuss and reason a vote on me, voluntary Town Ordinary Kid. No matter what happens, I think this is more useful for Town.

giphy.gif
 

Sorian

Banned
Fair enough, no more meta discussion from me.

With that said, the odds of hitting Town for this game right now are high. Without anyone (save for Masons or something) knowing anything, the odds of hitting Town PR are also a lot higher than I would like.

Now, you can jump down people's throats for any little thing they've said, or you can discuss and reason a vote on me, voluntary Town Ordinary Kid. No matter what happens, I think this is more useful for Town.

You've taken your "ordinary" role and turned yourself into a lightning rod instead. I'd argue what you've done here is actually more anti-town than anything else. You've killed any chance of talking about anything else today realistically because now the whole debate turns into "should we lynch Kark or not?" The problem with that is, what does the side do that doesn't want to lynch you? It's going to be hard to reason up a better day 1 target and as much as you want to convince people of otherwise, I doubt a majority will go the no lynch route (I certainly won't) so what recourse does someone have if they find this to be a waste of time?
 

Sorian

Banned
Tim messed up his spreadsheet but someone did actually vote for Karkador before he voted for himself. I have no clue if Darryl is watching in any form but if you see this post, how do you feel about your vote on Karkador? Planning to keep it there?
 

Karkador

Banned
You've taken your "ordinary" role and turned yourself into a lightning rod instead. I'd argue what you've done here is actually more anti-town than anything else. You've killed any chance of talking about anything else today realistically because now the whole debate turns into "should we lynch Kark or not?" The problem with that is, what does the side do that doesn't want to lynch you? It's going to be hard to reason up a better day 1 target and as much as you want to convince people of otherwise, I doubt a majority will go the no lynch route (I certainly won't) so what recourse does someone have if they find this to be a waste of time?

I don't see how it's anti town on a day when the lynch was going to be on some random whim anyway. I would have only done this on Day 1, FWIW. If I live, tomorrow will be a totally different day.

I ultimately want us to agree to not lynch today, because it's a bad idea. That's my game. But if it wont be that way, then vote on a situation with more substance to it. I can't make someone else volunteer, so I'll do it myself.
 

Sorian

Banned
I don't see how it's anti town on a day when the lynch was going to be on some random whim anyway. I would have only done this on Day 1, FWIW. If I live, tomorrow will be a totally different day.

I ultimately want us to agree to not lynch today, because it's a bad idea. That's my game. But if it wont be that way, then vote on a situation with more substance to it. I can't make someone else volunteer, so I'll do it myself.

Under the assumption that you are telling the truth, you've directed all conversation away from scum hunting to instead GUARANTEE that we are discussing one of our own. I would much rather be groping around in the dark then wasting time on a confirmed town kill.
 
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