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Marine Le Pen pledges to recognise Crimea and drop sanctions against Russia

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Dalibor68

Banned
I don't think the racist sentiments will ever be appeased, because they want unrealistic solutions like deporting all the brown people and think the EU is to blame for everything and not their own local/national politicians screwing them over.

Since these racist sentiments in the population won't be appeased by any non-far-right party, expect the far-right to come into even more power and disrupt the institutions that should otherwise serve as safe-guard against fascism and bigotry. Then they most likely will ally their fascist cultural politics with the libertarian economics (because capitalism is amoral).

Since it's impossible to deport brown people who were born in the European countries, expect them to be treated even more as second-class citizens, dehumanize them through discriminatory laws that target them via dog-whistles, and stove them together in housing projects and ghettos even more.

That is an extremely simplistic, one-sided and to some extent simply false description of the situation.. Aside from the ever vocal 5% hardcore racists every country seems to have, people do not want "deporting all the brown people" but proper immigration policies that go beyond "1) let everyone in, even without vetting to some extent (which leads to thousands of people from safe countries roaming around that can't be deported because of the lack of deportation agreements with their homecountries) 2) witness non-functioning integration and rising crime rates 3) act as if nobody could've prevented this".

Once common sense immigration and integration policies are in place and start to work, the right will eventually lose momentan again and the pendulum swing back more towards the left. Or alternatively we can continue to pretend that everything is OK and call everyone else a racist/facist/bigot/any other buzzworld of your liking and then act surprised that the right keeps winning. And no, democracies won't be dismantled because afaik most if not all western and central european countries require government coalitions because no far-right party has any chance of having a 50% majority and no classic conservative/social democrat party is going to let others turn states into facist dictatorships.

Ironically the only situation where Le Pen could win was if she ran against a far-left candidate who denies immigration problems (+ more terror attacks with high casualty count/impact on public subjective safety). Thankfully that situation will not present itself as the second round will most likely see her running against center-right Fillon or center-left Macron.
 

azyless

Member
Yes, you're promoting complacency. Aside from "look how smart I am, I can relativize.", what is it that you're trying to accomplish here? People are going "Holy shit, things are going terribly. Marine Le Pen actually stands a chance at the presidency!", and you among others are going "that's not true! Don't worry, and here's why: ...".

People should be running fucking scared right now, to the point where they'll get off their asses and do something about what's going on in their countries.
I'm trying to stop the influx of "France is doomed!!" posts that's been present in every single thread remotely about Brexit. Misinformation is misinformation no matter if it's beneficial or not.
Nice of you to assume french people are just sitting on their ass doing nothing. Wake me up when the USA even comes close to the turnouts here, yeah ?
 

Hypron

Member
If you are French you better not vote for this pathetic excuse for a human being...

I'm trying to get my whole family to vote in the election (they never vote), even if it's only for the second round.

At the same time, I'm not too worried. French people as a whole take voting seriously.
 
If you are French you better not vote for this pathetic excuse for a human being...

I'm trying to get my whole family to vote in the election (they never vote), even if it's only for the second round.

At the same time, I'm not too worried. French people as a whole take voting seriously.

After Brexit, and the orange embarrassment, I sure hope the French voters are not as easily duped.
 

Maztorre

Member
I don't think I've ever read such a twisted, simplified into one direction take on the current european reality. Aside from the 5% hardcore racists every country seems to have, people do not want "deporting all the brown people" but proper immigration policies that go beyond "1) let everyone in, even without vetting to some extent (which leads to thousands of people from safe countries roaming around that can't be deported because of the lack of deportation agreements with their homecountries) 2) witness non-functioning integration and rising crime rates 3) act as if nobody could've prevented this".

None of which has anything to do with the EU project. Member states have ample leeway and avenues to handle migration. The failed case of this in the EU (the UK) was only too happy to take as many immigrants as possible, because the domestic government sought to:

a) use the influx of workers to suppress domestic wages, and
b) use immigrants to fill gaps in their own lack of investment for staffing services
 

Dalibor68

Banned
None of which has anything to do with the EU project. Member states have ample leeway and avenues to handle migration. The failed case of this in the EU (the UK) was only too happy to take as many immigrants as possible, because the domestic government sought to:

a) use the influx of workers to suppress domestic wages, and
b) use immigrants to fill gaps in their own lack of investment for staffing services

Yes, I'm well aware of the industries' interests. Industries in return have influence on governments and governments have influence on the EU. That said my post wasn't really meant as an EU criticism.
 

Alx

Member
After Brexit, and the orange embarrassment, I sure hope the French voters are not as easily duped.

One good thing about French politics is that we don't have the equivalent of tabloids and smearing campaigns that are common in anglo-saxon countries. On the other hand it could also mean that we would be unprepared if such phenomenon was to massively appear suddenly.
I'd say my only fear would come from that, a sudden surge of internet propaganda that could drown all rational discussions. But right now it doesn't seem to be the case, and even the most vocal parties on the internet are quite reasonable. Hopefully it stays that way.
 

mo60

Member
One good thing about French politics is that we don't have the equivalent of tabloids and smearing campaigns that are common in anglo-saxon countries. On the other hand it could also mean that we would be unprepared if such phenomenon was to massively appear suddenly.
I'd say my only fear would come from that, a sudden surge of internet propaganda that could drown all rational discussions. But right now it doesn't seem to be the case, and even the most vocal parties on the internet are quite reasonable. Hopefully it stays that way.

The french presidential election camapign may get really ugly soon especially on the internet. Sites like Breitbart may try to play a role during the french presidential campaign.
 
One good thing about French politics is that we don't have the equivalent of tabloids and smearing campaigns that are common in anglo-saxon countries. On the other hand it could also mean that we would be unprepared if such phenomenon was to massively appear suddenly.

Is this because those tactics simply aren't used or because the system is strong enough against them that they aren't effective? In other words, I'd rather be running antivirus software than running a system that is too obscure to have viruses developed for it.
 
As an American I never thought the US and France would be on the wrong side of World War III. But since we know war is what it will take to depose Putin and stop his militaristic imperialism, and given the allegiances that are forming around him, looks like that's how it goes.
 

Kabouter

Member
As an American I never thought the US and France would be on the wrong side of World War III. But since we know war is what it will take to depose Putin and stop his militaristic imperialism, and given the allegiances that are forming around him, looks like that's how it goes.

World War 3? What the fuck are you talking about?
 

Alx

Member
Is this because those tactics simply aren't used or because the system is strong enough against them that they aren't effective? In other words, I'd rather be running antivirus software than running a system that is too obscure to have viruses developed for it.

Not used by politicians, and for some reason the press never was very "popular". You have different papers defending specific sides of course, but they're following tacit rules of respect.
There is a paper that is specialized in flagging scandals (le Canard Enchaîné), but it's doing it in a very documented way actually.
 
D

Deleted member 17706

Unconfirmed Member
This will hurt her. The French won't jump ship to the Pro-Putin side like the Republicans did.

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Don't get complacent, France. All of you need to get out there and make sure she loses.

There's no complacency here, everyone knows she has a great deal of chance winning this.

If she gets in the second turn I expect more voters to show up just ti vote against her, a bit like in 2002 against her father.
 

kruis

Exposing the sinister cartel of retailers who allow companies to pay for advertising space.
Why do all the right wing shitheads love Putin so much?

They hate everyone foreign country but will bend over backwards to keep Putin happy.

A right wing nationalist dictator who's anti immigration, anti EU and gets his way. What's not too like?
 

FDC1

Member
Le Pen is not an unknown element like Trump or the brexit were. For reminder by exemple, in December 2015, barely 1 year ago, she was candidate in the regional elections in one of the most favorable region, if not the most, for FN. Still, she got crushed 58/42 in the second round.
 

Hypron

Member
Not used by politicians, and for some reason the press never was very "popular". You have different papers defending specific sides of course, but they're following tacit rules of respect.
There is a paper that is specialized in flagging scandals (le Canard Enchaîné), but it's doing it in a very documented way actually.

French TV also has stricter rules when it comes to having fair representation of each candidate, and a decent number of TV channels are state funded.

So we don't have half the country watching the same extremely biased TV network (FOXNews) and believing every word of it.
 
French people don't need a reminder for who and when to vote, if Le Pen somehow makes it to the second round then she will be erased 20/80 because of the way our election works -- we've been accustomed to the disgusting kind of the Le Pen's for generations now, they didn't stood a chance yesterday and they won't tomorrow.
 

Foffy

Banned
Automation is certainly a factor that will shape the political discourse of most industrialized nations but Rural areas are already heavily automated and have been so for years, automation will hit harder on the suburban areas in most cities since this time automation isn't just automation of manufacturing but automation in key sectors of the service industry that is what employs most of the low skill workers in the cities, and is not just them that their jobs are on the chopping block since automation isn't just aiming to replace low skill workers in the service industry.

I do agree with Blyth and he seems one of the few people making sense when trying to explain the current situation in the west, I just hope people listen to his message while there is time to correct some of the problems with globalization and not reach a point where people will decide that is better to have a right wing populist in charge over having the same political elite lying to them over and over again.

This is key, and while Blyth highlights the issues, people like Guy Standing, Noam Chomsky, and Henry Giroux really highlight how these cause massive problems in society and culture. All of them have named the beasts dawned via neoliberalism, and unfortunately, I believe all of them have said dissent and possibly revolt are the only answers we have going forward, because the system is either inept and too slow, or corroded and too corrupt.

Consider for a moment one of the straws that broke the camel's back that blew up Syria was farming and how that became inhospitable via climate change. We can totally see something like that happen in many first world nations when our social orders come to a full on crash, and those leading us really aren't doing anything that even propaganda and lip service would justify. Rural America is likely the first casualty here, but do not believe they are the only ones in the pipeline.

I'm sure many will say "that can't happen" as some posts have already passed away the connections of Global Trumpism/Neonationalism, but I would implore people to really begin to delve deeper, because a society can only struggle long enough that people throw molotovs. Right now, we're seeing them thrown politically, and this should be a clear pointer that if it continues, they will become physical.
 

FDC1

Member
How is getting funding from foreign banks and such not against the law? Those things are clear conflicts of interest.

It's forbidden to get donations from another country. She didn't get a donation, she got a loan from a Russian bank in 2014 and she's trying to get another one. For information, french banks refuse to lend her money.
 

Hypron

Member
It's forbidden to get donations from another country. She didn't get a donation, she got a loan from a Russian bank in 2014 and she's trying to get another one. For information, franch banks refuse to lend her money.

And, as expected, her supporters are whining about this all the time. "bu bu mah freedom of expression"
 

Alx

Member
French people don't need a reminder for who and when to vote, if Le Pen somehow makes it to the second round then she will be erased 20/80 because of the way our election works -- we've been accustomed to the disgusting kind of the Le Pen's for generations now, they didn't stood a chance yesterday and they won't tomorrow.

I wish we would kick her out with 20/80, but it will more likely be 30/70. 40/60 would already be a catastrophe actually, but still a long shot from having her win.
As a matter of fact seeing how she's been expected to reach the second round from the beginning, the first round is only for her to lose. If there was to be an "unexpected surprise" like in UK/US, it would be for her to get eliminated sooner. Except that this time it would be good news. :p
 
France doesn't have the dumbass Electoral College to fuck them, hard to imagine Le Pen getting over 50% in either round.

But I guess the National Front is a family business, so she won't be replaced.
 
I wish we would kick her out with 20/80, but it will more likely be 30/70. 40/60 would already be a catastrophe actually, but still a long shot from having her win.
As a matter of fact seeing how she's been expected to reach the second round from the beginning, the first round is only for her to lose. If there was to be an "unexpected surprise" like in UK/US, it would be for her to get eliminated sooner. Except that this time it would be good news. :p

She absolutely can't go higher than 20/80 against Fillon, surely 35/65 max if against whoever is leading the left side.

Polls about her winning the first round were absolutely useless as they are dated from before the right and left primaries and so before those sides rallied behind a candidate.
It also predates both the rise of Macron and Mélenchon in popularity, first round is absolutely not "for her to lose".
 

Alx

Member
But I guess the National Front is a family business, so she won't be replaced.

She definitely won't, whatever happens she'll still be popular within her party, considering that she's making it increasingly popular.
Another specifics of French politics, losing an election doesn't blacklist you for the next ones. As a matter of fact several French presidents lost at least once on prior presidential elections (Mitterrand, Chirac), and there are many "serial losers" that you expect to see coming back at each election (Le Pen, Mélenchon, Bayrou, ...).
 

Fularu

Banned
Anyone saying that she can't be elected is delusional

If it's a FN - Left showdown in the second round, she has a strong chance (and that showdown can happen depending on who gets selected during the PS primary)
She absolutely can't go higher than 20/80 against Fillon, surely 35/65 max if against whoever is leading the left side.

Polls about her winning the first round were absolutely useless as they are dated from before the right and left primaries and so before those sides rallied behind a candidate.
It also predates both the rise of Macron and Mélenchon in popularity, first round is absolutely not "for her to lose".

Fillon has been losing ground weekly ever since the end of the primary (went from a surge to dropping fast, several polls don't even have him in the second round now unless Valls is selected).

I don't believe that most of the right wing voters would have issues voting for Marine in the second round against someone like Macron, after all, Fillon is just a more "politically correct" version of Marine at this point (heck, he's probably closer to Marion than Marine, and we all know Marion is further to the right than her aunt)
 

Dalibor68

Banned
I don't believe that most of the right wing voters would have issues voting for Marine in the second round against someone like Macron, after all, Fillon is just a more "politically correct" version of Marine at this point (heck, he's probably closer to Marion than Marine, and we all know Marion is further to the right than her aunt)

I think Marion, if she ever was to become the FN candidate in future elections, has one ace: her looks. Nowadays superficial elements like this factor in more than ever.

Anyways, here are current opinion polls: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opini...idential_election,_2017#Fillon.E2.80.93Le_Pen

Fillion vs Le Pen
67% vs 33%
64% vs 36%
63% vs 37%

Macron vs Le Pen
62% vs 38%
65% vs 35%

In the overall first-round polls, it seems Macron has been stronger than anticipated. Then again that might change when the socialists have their own candidate.
 

mo60

Member
She absolutely can't go higher than 20/80 against Fillon, surely 35/65 max if against whoever is leading the left side.

Polls about her winning the first round were absolutely useless as they are dated from before the right and left primaries and so before those sides rallied behind a candidate.
It also predates both the rise of Macron and Mélenchon in popularity, first round is absolutely not "for her to lose".

She's polling in the 30's against both Macron and Fillion in the second round.

Anyone saying that she can't be elected is delusional

If it's a FN - Left showdown in the second round, she has a strong chance (and that showdown can happen depending on who gets selected during the PS primary)


Fillon has been losing ground weekly ever since the end of the primary (went from a surge to dropping fast, several polls don't even have him in the second round now unless Valls is selected).

I don't believe that most of the right wing voters would have issues voting for Marine in the second round against someone like Macron, after all, Fillon is just a more "politically correct" version of Marine at this point (heck, he's probably closer to Marion than Marine, and we all know Marion is further to the right than her aunt)

Macron is centrist. He should be able to attract center right voters to vote for him if he faced le pen in the second round of the french presidential elections.
 

Fularu

Banned
I think Marion, if she ever was to become the FN candidate in future elections, has one ace: her looks. Nowadays superficial elements like this factor in more than ever.

Anyways, here are current opinion polls: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opini...idential_election,_2017#Fillon.E2.80.93Le_Pen

Fillion vs Le Pen
67% vs 33%
64% vs 36%
63% vs 37%

Macron vs Le Pen
62% vs 38%
65% vs 35%

Once the campaign kicks in, expect her numbers to rise (like with every election

and I believe Marion will be right left and center during the campaign and for some reason that completely eludes me, we like her.

She also has a bigger following within the french christian right than Fillon does, same within the monarchist/bonapartists ranks.
 

azyless

Member
Anyone saying that she can't be elected is delusional

If it's a FN - Left showdown in the second round, she has a strong chance (and that showdown can happen depending on who gets selected during the PS primary)
In what world does anyone from the left makes it to the 2nd round. The most we'll get is Macron.
 

Dalibor68

Banned
In what world does anyone from the left makes it to the 2nd round. The most we'll get is Macron.

Isn't Macron at least centre-left? Just read through his wiki and he has some interesting things in his life:

He left to work as an investment banker at Rothschild & Cie Banque. While at Rothschild, he closed a high-profile deal between Nestlé and Pfizer[11] which made him a millionaire.

Macron married Brigitte Trogneux, 24 years older than him and his former French teacher in high school,[1] in 2007. The couple lives with Trogneux's children from a previous marriage in France.[11]

Seems a bit like FN couldn't hope for a better counter-candidate lol (in regards to material for dirty campaigning / playing the "he's with the banks!" narrative)
 

Alx

Member
Who does a statement like this appeal to in france? Why would the voters care about Crimea being recognized?

I guess it's more a statement to appeal to Russian banks (and Putin). As a matter of fact Fillon is also favorable to drop the sanctions, and nobody bothered discussing it.
(which doesn't make him "a PC version of Marine" btw...)
 

mo60

Member
Once the campaign kicks in, expect her numbers to rise (like with every election

and I believe Marion will be right left and center during the campaign and for some reason that completely eludes me, we like her.

She also has a bigger following within the french christian right than Fillon does, same within the monarchist/bonapartists ranks.

That may actually hurt her more then help her.The left besides the working class voters don't really like her while some on the right(especially the center right) don't really like her either. Trying to appeal to people on the right, left and center will probably make it hard for her to sell a message that is not confusing or unappealing(i.e. Hilary). Someone that is really appealing like Macron and to a lesser extent Fillon can easily crush her in the second round.
 
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