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[Systolique]

Everybody knows what those "what if" polls look like, because everybody knows they're what ifs.

Everybody also knows that if the FN gets to the second round you're gonna get an immense surge of anti-FN votes that aren't accounted for right now, for whichever side is against it

 

[Fularu]

I guess it's more a statement to appeal to Russian banks (and Putin). As a matter of fact Fillon is also favorable to drop the sanctions, and nobody bothered discussing it.
(which doesn't make him "a PC version of Marine" btw...)

Fillon is deeply rooted in the right of the Les Républicains party. The main difference between him and Marine is his stance regarding the EU. That's the key differenciator and what can make him lose support within the rightwing electorate.

Marine on the other hand not only gets the far right voters, but she's also gaining on the left-wing voters front (mostly among low skill workers and people fed up with the rise of terrorism in Europe).

The presidential election is veryvery open right now. also remember that the FN always does better than the polls, FN polling shame is still a very real thing.

That may actually hurt her more then help her.The left besides the working class voters don't really like her while some on the right(especially the center right) don't really like her either. Trying to appeal to people on the right, left and center will probably make it hard for her to sell a message that is not confusing or unappealing(i.e. Hilary). Someone that is really appealing like Macron and to a lesser extent Fillon can easily crush her in the second round.

Right left and center means she'll be everywhere, not that she'll try to appeal to that electorate.

Everybody knows what those "what if" polls look like, because everybody knows they're what ifs.

Everybody also knows that if the FN gets to the second round you're gonna get an immense surge of anti-FN votes that aren't accounted for right now, for whichever side is against it

We're way past 2002's perception of the FN. You can mostly thank Sarkozy for that since he stole most of their rethoric to get elected in 2007 and made their talking points prety much mainstream and politically acceptable.

 

[azyless]

Hamon gets to the second round according to some polls over Fillon.

What ? Uh, do you have a link because I honestly don't believe that for one second. A week ago he was given 6% in the first round if he even won the primaries.

 

[Systolique]

also remember that the FN always does better than the polls, FN polling shame is still a very real thing.

No
http://www.slate.fr/story/118917/tabou-vote-fn-sondages

 

[Fularu]

What ? Uh, do you have a link because I honestly don't believe that for one second. A week ago he was given 6% in the first round if he even won the primaries.

Was a talking point on Le Journal du 20h on France 2 this monday.

They were showing what would happen depending on who won the primary (Hamon, Valls or Montebourg)

No
http://www.slate.fr/story/118917/tabou-vote-fn-sondages

Il n'y a eu aucune élection majeure le prouvant. L'élection présidentielle est bien plus critique et pour en parler auprès de mon cercle d'amis, assumer le FN (surtout chez les jeunes) n'est pas encore ancré dans leurs habitudes.

 

[Alx]

Fillon is deeply rooted in the right of the Les Républicains party. The main difference between him and Marine is his stance regarding the EU.

That's a major difference. The French population is still mostly favorable to EU, and that alone would help convince voters from all side to support the pro-EU candidate.
Also I don't think Fillon is protectionnist, unlike Le Pen.

 

[mo60]

Fillon is deeply rooted in the right of the Les Républicains party. The main difference between him and Marine is his stance regarding the EU. That's the key differenciator and what can make him lose support within the rightwing electorate.

Marine on the other hand not only gets the far right voters, but she's also gaining on the left-wing voters front (mostly among low skill workers and people fed up with the rise of terrorism in Europe).

The presidential election is veryvery open right now. also remember that the FN always does better than the polls, FN polling shame is still a very real thing.


Right left and center means she'll be everywhere, not that she'll try to appeal to that electorate.

Problem is that probably won't help her create an appealing platform for the people she needs to appeal to win. Some people on the left would think she is to extreme to vote for while some on the right would think she's not extreme enough(i.e her niece). She's been kinda static in first round and second round polls for awhile now unlike Macron. At this point she's going to get just her base to vote for her in the second round which should be between 30 and 35 percent of the vote, but she won't get anyone else to support her.

 

[Systolique]

Il n'y a eu aucune élection majeure le prouvant. L'élection présidentielle est bien plus critique et pour en parler auprès de mon cercle d'amis, assumer le FN (surtout chez les jeunes) n'est pas encore ancré dans leurs habitudes.

N'importe quoi, et l'élection présidentielle 2012 c'était pas majeur?
https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liste...le_française_de_2012#Sondages_du_premier_tour
Stop la désinformation, même si tu penses bien faire - et je peux comprendre -, c'est absolument pas bénéfique pour les discussions en ligne et IRL, renseigne-toi plutôt que d'avoir un argumentaire s'appuyant sur "ton cercle d'amis".

 

[azyless]

Was a talking point on Le Journal du 20h on France 2 this monday.

They were showing what would happen depending on who won the primary (Hamon, Valls or Montebourg)

I skimmed it and didn't see anything about the primaries, neither can I find any poll or article that would reflect it.

 

[whyamihere]

"Trump is pulling much lower than Brexit ever did" was the go-to argument against Trump/Brexit comparisons.

Hillary won as much as Leave did.

 

[Fularu]

N'importe quoi, et l'élection présidentielle 2012 c'était pas majeur?
https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liste...le_française_de_2012#Sondages_du_premier_tour
Stop la désinformation, même si tu penses bien faire - et je peux comprendre -, c'est absolument pas bénéfique pour les discussions en ligne et IRL, renseigne-toi plutôt que d'avoir un argumentaire s'appuyant sur "ton cercle d'amis".

On verra. Le vote FN bien que plus assumé aujourd'hui n'est pas pour autant affirmé via les sondages (qui se plantent en permanence de toutes façons).

Et l'election 2012 n'a pas eu lieu dans le climat actuel de lutte depuis 5 ans contre la "contre pensée " (mouvement soralien, dissidence et autres courants) amenant les gens a etre beaucoup plus prudents face à ce qu'ils disent aux sondeurs ou publiquement (et je doute que les soraliens par exemple aillent voter Fillon ou Macron)

 

[uncelestial]

World War 3? What the fuck are you talking about?

Uh, things that are happening in the world?

http://www.motherjones.com/media/2016/05/putin-russia-baltic-states-master-plan

^ Seriously, don't respond to this post unless you read that.

What will it take to put a stop to Putin short of war? The world would love a solution, because he wipes his ass with sanctions, he is not without diplomatic allies, and he is not going to stop engaging in militaristic incursions against other countries. At this point, installing allies in the Western power states ensures that responses to these incursions will be blunted, so.... Where do YOU think that's all headed, if not war? Pro-Putin leaders are actively calling NATO obsolete at this point, which is just the next phase of chloroforming the prison guard.

Naturally, I hope I'm wrong, but I'm not crazy -- thanks.

 

[FDC1]

On verra. Le vote FN bien que plus assumé aujourd'hui n'est pas pour autant affirmé via les sondages (qui se plantent en permanence de toutes façons).

Et l'election 2012 n'a pas eu lieu dans le climat actuel de lutte depuis 5 ans contre la "contre pensée " (mouvement soralien, dissidence et autres courants) amenant les gens a etre beaucoup plus prudents face à ce qu'ils disent aux sondeurs ou publiquement (et je doute que les soraliens par exemple aillent voter Fillon ou Macron)

Encore une fois, il n'y a pas besoin de remonter en 2002 ou en 2012. Il y a a peine un an, elle a été largement battue aux régionales dans une region où le FN fait traditionnellement ses meilleurs scores.

 

[Mass_Pincup]

Encore une fois, il n'y a pas besoin de remonter en 2002 ou en 2012. Il y a a peine un an, elle a été largement battue aux régionales dans une region où le FN fait traditionnellement ses meilleurs scores.

J'ai quand meme toujours un peu peur que le front républicain commence petit a petit a faiblir et que son efficacité dépend du fait que le candidat s'opposant au FN soit lui meme de droite. J'ai l'impression que LR ou tout du moins certains de leur membres soit moins enclin a ce genre de coalition.

 

[Funky Papa]

Please be considerate to other posters and cut it with the French.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Obama did, and I do wish we had more people like him in office.

He's opening up to the need of a UBI, but one of his earlier plans was wage insurance, which would actually have protected these people somewhat, as social mobility via technology is negative, not positive.

Of course, the GOP looked at it as the evil S O C I A L I S M and didn't even entertain the concept for a second, and here we are, knowing these people are in collapse...

One of the biggest missed opportunities of Hillary's campaign was not doing what Bill did in his second term's campaign; focus on small very specific issues. The main one which I truly believe could have given her a victory over Trump in the end is parental leave. I think she could have been speaking about this almost exclusively to the detriment of all other issues and it would have given her the win.

Keep repeating how parents will have parental leave, guaranteed, and how this gives families relief and brings down the cost of raising kids, ensures a higher quality of life for them during such an important time of their lives and the life of their child, incites them to have children, etc. Heck, start with a slight distortion to make it more favorable to middle-class Americans rather than the poor, fix it later.

I guarantee you if Hillary and Bill had campaigned on this like it was the new big thing on the level of Obamacare, it would have been huge everywhere and especially in the key states Hillary lost.

And then in the background you have Trump and his pussy-grabbing stuff. It would have been one big FATALITY on his campaign. Hillary and Bill would have looked like a more charming couple all of a sudden, much more in line with the portrait they painted of her at the convention, rather than lady-of-steel who likes to take down dictators for breakfast or just trying to wave her finger at Trump for being mean.

 

[Lev]

It's just not Le Pen; François Fillon is also pro-Russian and wants to get rid of sanctions against Russia, and he probably has a better chance of getting elected than her too.

I can understand how it's possible for these European politicians to be pro-Russia, especially if they have business ties or political donations from Russia, but I can't understand how European citizens can be pro-Russia. Even if you like how conservative Russian society or laws are, regardless Russia is naturally the geopolitical enemy of the West, so any favorable relationship with Moscow means forfeiting geopolitical influence to Russia. That is not a favorable position to be in.

 

[Kabouter]

Uh, things that are happening in the world?

http://www.motherjones.com/media/2016/05/putin-russia-baltic-states-master-plan

^ Seriously, don't respond to this post unless you read that.

What will it take to put a stop to Putin short of war? The world would love a solution, because he wipes his ass with sanctions, he is not without diplomatic allies, and he is not going to stop engaging in militaristic incursions against other countries. At this point, installing allies in the Western power states ensures that responses to these incursions will be blunted, so.... Where do YOU think that's all headed, if not war? Pro-Putin leaders are actively calling NATO obsolete at this point, which is just the next phase of chloroforming the prison guard.

Naturally, I hope I'm wrong, but I'm not crazy -- thanks.

I'm familiar with the situation in the Baltics, that article isn't news to me. Where I think it is headed? A reshuffling of the general geopolitical order, not a complete one, but to some degree. With Russia reclaiming some of its sphere of influence (and perhaps a bit more territory) that it has lost since the days of the Soviet Union, even while it continues to lose influence to China in resource rich Central Asia. There's not going to be an apocalyptic war between great powers, no one is itching for such a confrontation, not even Russia. Before the First World War, the great powers had been building up their strength for decades, an eventual confrontation was as good as inevitable. Even with Russia's recent investment in its military, nothing close to that can be seen there now, especially not in other nations. The even more significant dedication of national resources toward war seen in the buildup to WW2 is yet further removed from the present situation. There is very little to suggest we are inching toward a major conflagration.

 

[1.21Gigawatts]

How about France and Canada swap country and then we create a United Europe around Canada and Germany and Scandinavia. All countries who want to be social democracies.
And at the same time we create a north america of coutries who want to be authocracies.

Everyone gets their way.

 

[Hypron]

How about France and Canada swap country and then we create a United Europe around Canada and Germany and Scandinavia. All countries who want to be social democracies.
And at the same time we create a north america of coutries who want to be authocracies.

Everyone gets their way.

Hey, calm down over there. Like we say in French, don't sell the bear's skin before having killed it.

France hasn't elected her. She's quite unlikely to be elected (way more unlikely than either Trump or Brexit). Don't act like we want autocrats.

 

[Heckler456]

I'm trying to stop the influx of "France is doomed!!" posts that's been present in every single thread remotely about Brexit. Misinformation is misinformation no matter if it's beneficial or not.
Nice of you to assume french people are just sitting on their ass doing nothing. Wake me up when the USA even comes close to the turnouts here, yeah ?

I'm from Belgium, we have compulsory voting

Anyway, I get what you're saying. Misinformation is indeed hardly ever good. But I feel like even diminishing the magnitude of importance regarding these things by the tiniest amount simply doesn't play in our favor. People were cocksure with Trump and the Brexit as well, and look at what happened. Both narrow losses that could have been avoided if the side that mattered actually took the threat seriously.