Mask Efficacy |OT| Wuhan!! Got You All In Check

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Good Covid-19 news!



"Sarah Gilbert, professor of vaccinology at Oxford University, told The Times on Saturday that she is "80% confident" the vaccine would work, and could be ready by September. Experts have warned the public that vaccines typically take years to develop, and one for the coronavirus could take between 12 to 18 months at best ... Gilbert's team is one of dozens worldwide working on a vaccine and is the most advanced in Britain, she told the Times. As the country looks set to begin its fourth week under lockdown, a vaccine could be fundamental in easing the measures and returning to normal life. Gilbert said human trials are due to start in the next two weeks." (4/11/20)
 
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Overwhelmed hospitals is not something they would've been able to hide though
Oh, I don't mean to deny that Japan wasn't testing. That much was clear. It's just that their hospitalizations and deaths were low and mostly flat for a long time, and that wouldn't be something the government could have covered up effectively.
It's difficult to directly receive the raw data to study if Japanese hospitalizations/senior fatality rate number change from January to March compared to the historical record.
Remember, U.S had a flatter curve of cov-19 death toll and hospitalization rate from January 20 to late February compare to South Korea too.(That's because U.S did not test enough) Even in extreme cases like Wuhan and NYC, hospitals only got overwhelmed after the public were alarmed enough (by the lock-down)and received massive testing: (1)media started to extensively cover the outbreak (2)then the public floored to get tested(3)the death were correctly categorized as cov-19 infection . But in early days, NYC and Wuhan patients started to die long before lock-down took place, many of death were just not categorized by cov-19 because they did not get tested. We might observe Japan's cases number in the coming weeks.

I hope I am wrong, I hope Japan have the virus under control sooner and better.
 
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I am gwtting very confused about the world.

I read iran austria scandinavian countries etc are easing or even lifting lockdowns.

Are we out of the woods though even in china with their false low numbers took 3 months to come out of their caves yet here we are and just pretend its all good again?

What am i missing.
 
I am gwtting very confused about the world.

I read iran austria scandinavian countries etc are easing or even lifting lockdowns.

Are we out of the woods though even in china with their false low numbers took 3 months to come out of their caves yet here we are and just pretend its all good again?

What am i missing.
The WHO has advised countries not to reopen too early for fear of additional waves. We'll find out soon how smart of a decision this is.

China still isn't good. They're reopening sure, but shops and factories are still fairly empty. Some places are even getting shut down again.
 
So no one talked about the Wisconsin (?) primary last week? How the governor (D) postponed it but the Republican legislature (and the state supreme court) upended it and the primary was a complete fustercluck?
 
If they test enough people and get the infections down wouldn't large gatherings be possible? Basically "we've all been tested and everyone who works at any public job was tested so it's all safe to interact!"

Track any positive test and who they've been in contact with recently. And boom the public is safe again.

You can be infected twice. Depending on who you believe, it is predicted that this will be pretty much like the common cold, in that vaccines will never be able to stop it as there will simply be too many variations of it.
 
Good Covid-19 news!



"Sarah Gilbert, professor of vaccinology at Oxford University, told The Times on Saturday that she is "80% confident" the vaccine would work, and could be ready by September. Experts have warned the public that vaccines typically take years to develop, and one for the coronavirus could take between 12 to 18 months at best ... Gilbert's team is one of dozens worldwide working on a vaccine and is the most advanced in Britain, she told the Times. As the country looks set to begin its fourth week under lockdown, a vaccine could be fundamental in easing the measures and returning to normal life. Gilbert said human trials are due to start in the next two weeks." (4/11/20)


This has surfaced in this thread once.
No, that's not what she said.
Sept was "all goes super smoothly" scenario.

Current status on vaccines (note the length of Phase II trial):

Phase I trials test primarily for safety and preliminary dosing in a few dozen healthy subjects, while Phase II trials, following success in Phase I, evaluate effective dose levels (efficacy based on biomarkers) and side effects of the candidate vaccine in dozens-to-hundreds of people either with the targeted disease or in healthy subjects.[28] A Phase I-II trial conducts preliminary safety and dosing testing, is typically randomized, placebo-controlled, and at multiple sites, while determining more precise, effective doses.[28]

COVID-19: candidate vaccines in Phase I-II trials
Vaccine candidate
(developer/sponsor)
TechnologyPhase of trial
(participants)
LocationDurationReferences
and notes
Ad5-nCoV
(CanSino Biologics)
recombinant adenovirus type 5 vectorPhase II interventional trial for dosing and side effects (500)Wuhan, ChinaMarch 2020 to December 2020[5][29]
Ad5-nCoV
(CanSino Biologics)
recombinant adenovirus type 5 vectorPhase I (108)Wuhan, ChinaMarch 2020 to December 2020[3][30] continuing through 2020 during Phase II start[5]
ChAdOx1 nCoV-19
(University of Oxford)
adenovirus vectorPhase I-II, randomized, placebo-controlled, multiple sites (510)EnglandApril 2020 to May 2021[6][31]
mRNA-1273
(Moderna, US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases)
lipid nanoparticle dispersion containing messenger RNAPhase I (45)United StatesMarch 2020 to Spring-Summer 2021[3][32][33]
Covid-19/aAPC
(Shenzhen Geno-Immune Medical Institute)
lentiviral vector, pathogen-specific artificial antigen presenting dendritic cellsPhase I (100)Shenzhen, ChinaMarch 2020 to 2023[3][34]
LV-SMENP-DC
(Shenzhen Geno-Immune Medical Institute)
lentiviral minigene vaccine, dendritic cells modified with lentiviral vectorPhase I (100)Shenzhen, ChinaMarch 2020 to 2023[3][35]
INO-4800
(Inovio Pharmaceuticals, CEPI)
DNA plasmid delivered by electroporationPhase I (40)United StatesApril 2020 to November 2020[3][36]

You can be infected twice. Depending on who you believe, it is predicted that this will be pretty much like the common cold, in that vaccines will never be able to stop it as there will simply be too many variations of it.
Aren't we told that you don't get infected twice for at least 6-18 monhts?
 
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This has surfaced in this thread once.
No, that's not what she said.
Sept was "all goes super smoothly" scenario.

Current status on vaccines (note the length of Phase II trial):

Phase I trials test primarily for safety and preliminary dosing in a few dozen healthy subjects, while Phase II trials, following success in Phase I, evaluate effective dose levels (efficacy based on biomarkers) and side effects of the candidate vaccine in dozens-to-hundreds of people either with the targeted disease or in healthy subjects.[28] A Phase I-II trial conducts preliminary safety and dosing testing, is typically randomized, placebo-controlled, and at multiple sites, while determining more precise, effective doses.[28]

Vaccine candidate
(developer/sponsor)
TechnologyPhase of trial
(participants)
LocationDurationReferences
and notes
COVID-19: candidate vaccines in Phase I-II trials
Ad5-nCoV
(CanSino Biologics)
recombinant adenovirus type 5 vectorPhase II interventional trial for dosing and side effects (500)Wuhan, ChinaMarch 2020 to December 2020[5][29]
Ad5-nCoV
(CanSino Biologics)
recombinant adenovirus type 5 vectorPhase I (108)Wuhan, ChinaMarch 2020 to December 2020[3][30] continuing through 2020 during Phase II start[5]
ChAdOx1 nCoV-19
(University of Oxford)
adenovirus vectorPhase I-II, randomized, placebo-controlled, multiple sites (510)EnglandApril 2020 to May 2021[6][31]
mRNA-1273
(Moderna, US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases)
lipid nanoparticle dispersion containing messenger RNAPhase I (45)United StatesMarch 2020 to Spring-Summer 2021[3][32][33]
Covid-19/aAPC
(Shenzhen Geno-Immune Medical Institute)
lentiviral vector, pathogen-specific artificial antigen presenting dendritic cellsPhase I (100)Shenzhen, ChinaMarch 2020 to 2023[3][34]
LV-SMENP-DC
(Shenzhen Geno-Immune Medical Institute)
lentiviral minigene vaccine, dendritic cells modified with lentiviral vectorPhase I (100)Shenzhen, ChinaMarch 2020 to 2023[3][35]
INO-4800
(Inovio Pharmaceuticals, CEPI)
DNA plasmid delivered by electroporationPhase I (40)United StatesApril 2020 to November 2020[3][36]


Aren't we told that you don't get infected twice for at least 6-18 monhts?

From my considerably limited understanding, because of our wildly varying immune response to this coronavirus - i.e. some people shrug it off entirely, and some die, it is next to impossible to judge how much of a weakened form of the virus, would be necessary to trigger antibodies to it. In some scenarios the cure would indeed be worse than the virus itself. It is also my understanding, that even if the vaccine is successful, antibodies to coronaviruses deteriorate over time.

The prediction that seems most agreed upon, is we will end up with this being endemic to society, in that you will repeatedly catch this throughout your life (like the cold) and 4/5 times will shrug it off, but that other time, it will hit you hard enough that you will require a hospital and will then obviously have a chance of being killed off.

The world has changed. We will no doubt be living with this forever, alongside any other viruses that emerge from eating bats, or being leaked from top secret government labs. Sleep well.
 
From my considerably limited understanding, because of our wildly varying immune response to this coronavirus - i.e. some people shrug it off entirely, and some die, it is next to impossible to judge how much of a weakened form of the virus, would be necessary to trigger antibodies to it. In some scenarios the cure would indeed be worse than the virus itself. It is also my understanding, that even if the vaccine is successful, antibodies to coronaviruses deteriorate over time.

The prediction that seems most agreed upon, is we will end up with this being endemic to society, in that you will repeatedly catch this throughout your life (like the cold) and 4/5 times will shrug it off, but that other time, it will hit you hard enough that you will require a hospital and will then obviously have a chance of being killed off.

The world has changed. We will no doubt be living with this forever, alongside any other viruses that emerge from eating bats, or being leaked from top secret government labs. Sleep well.
451534.jpg
 
it is predicted that this will be pretty much like the common cold, in that vaccines will never be able to stop it as there will simply be too many variations of it.
Don't we have vaccines that are 99.99% guaranteed to work for other types of viral infections? Are coronaviruses special in some way? Do they mutate faster or something? (I'm aware some strains of the cold are in the CV family.)
 
From my considerably limited understanding, because of our wildly varying immune response to this coronavirus - i.e. some people shrug it off entirely, and some die, it is next to impossible to judge how much of a weakened form of the virus, would be necessary to trigger antibodies to it. In some scenarios the cure would indeed be worse than the virus itself. It is also my understanding, that even if the vaccine is successful, antibodies to coronaviruses deteriorate over time.

The prediction that seems most agreed upon, is we will end up with this being endemic to society, in that you will repeatedly catch this throughout your life (like the cold) and 4/5 times will shrug it off, but that other time, it will hit you hard enough that you will require a hospital and will then obviously have a chance of being killed off.

The world has changed. We will no doubt be living with this forever, alongside any other viruses that emerge from eating bats, or being leaked from top secret government labs. Sleep well.
From my considerably limited understanding, because of our wildly varying immune response to this coronavirus - i.e. some people shrug it off entirely, and some die, it is next to impossible to judge how much of a weakened form of the virus, would be necessary to trigger antibodies to it. In some scenarios the cure would indeed be worse than the virus itself. It is also my understanding, that even if the vaccine is successful, antibodies to coronaviruses deteriorate over time.

The prediction that seems most agreed upon, is we will end up with this being endemic to society, in that you will repeatedly catch this throughout your life (like the cold) and 4/5 times will shrug it off, but that other time, it will hit you hard enough that you will require a hospital and will then obviously have a chance of being killed off.

The world has changed. We will no doubt be living with this forever, alongside any other viruses that emerge from eating bats, or being leaked from top secret government labs. Sleep well.
let's wait until we get some antibody tests up and running before we go full doom and gloom
need some facts in future responses chief
 
Spent the day going down various conspiracy rabbit holes on this thing. I think I infected myself just reading some of them and need a day or two to normalize.

Or maybe Bill Gates is the Antichrist and wants to chip us with the mark of the beast.
 


Australian experts will pick through poo in a trial they hope will allow them to detect disease outbreaks early and inform the road out of the coronavirus lockdown.

Researchers at the Australian National University hope to replicate results out of the Netherlands that found coronavirus traces in sewage long before cases of the virus were officially reported.
 
Spent the day going down various conspiracy rabbit holes on this thing. I think I infected myself just reading some of them and need a day or two to normalize.

Or maybe Bill Gates is the Antichrist and wants to chip us with the mark of the beast.

The David Icke one on London Real (the banned episode) is a god one. Watched it twice.
 


What did he lie about?


Fauci was on NBC News' "Today" on Feb. 29, the date Lorraine mentioned, and talked about the "community spread" of the coronavirus. The virus, at that time, was known to be in Italy and China. Fauci was asked if Americans should change their way of life and he said, "there is no need to change what you are doing on a day-by-day basis." But he said that could change.

The New York Times claimed that he sounded the alarm in January.
 



The New York Times claimed that he sounded the alarm in January.

I don't think he should fire Fauci, but fact-checking/shaming him or any other prominent expert supposedly having called it in January (before the WHO even admitted that human-to-human transmission is possible) is more than fair IMO. This is the kind of thing he should be called out for when he lies and claims that something should have been done over a month earlier.
 
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My mom's workplace confirms an outbreak. :messenger_fearful:


Hope your mum, other workers and the residents will be safe mate. This thing is horrible, what a year.
 
Hope your mum, other workers and the residents will be safe mate. This thing is horrible, what a year.
I just talked to her.

She said the workplace lied and she hasn't been feeling well all last week.

She went to the hospital and is now awaiting her test results. Also, the story is in fact older (April 7th was the first case) but she never heard anything about it while she was there.
 
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So... what did he lie about?


Isn't it obvious, that lockdowns would have saved lives, had they started earlier?
Where is the "lie" aspect of it?

So which is it? He sounded the alarm in January or told people on February 29th that nothing needed to change? He's on video saying that.
 
Isn't it obvious, that lockdowns would have saved lives, had they started earlier?

Where is the "lie" aspect of it?

On February 29th, Fauci himself said that people should keep doing their normal day-to-day routine, which implies that lockdowns and enforced social distancing were unnecessary:

Fauci was on NBC News' "Today" on Feb. 29, the date Lorraine mentioned, and talked about the "community spread" of the coronavirus. The virus, at that time, was known to be in Italy and China. Fauci was asked if Americans should change their way of life and he said, "there is no need to change what you are doing on a day-by-day basis." But he said that could change.

His new statement is being used to feed the impossible narrative that Trump "did nothing for months" when China and the WHO hid crucial data about human to human transmission through late January and other data even longer. Trump literally was the first in the world to act.
 
On February 29th, Fauci himself said that people should keep doing their normal day-to-day routine, which implies that lockdowns and enforced social distancing were unnecessary:
So which is it? He sounded the alarm in January or told people on February 29th that nothing needed to change? He's on video saying that.

Let's separate beef and flies.
1) He said more lives could be saved, if lock downs started earlier <= what the heck is here to argue about?
2) He was OK with people not distancing on 29th of Feb

#2 makes him wrong/change his mind, it doesn't make him a liar.

And it doesn't matter AT ALL that somebody could use his words against Trump. (also note that lockdowns were implemented by state governors and actually there are some who acted early: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52113186 )
 
Let's separate beef and flies.
1) He said more lives could be saved, if lock downs started earlier <= what the heck is here to argue about?
2) He was OK with people not distancing on 29th of Feb

#2 makes him wrong/change his mind, it doesn't make him a liar.

And it doesn't matter AT ALL that somebody could use his words against Trump. (also note that lockdowns were implemented by state governors and actually there are some who acted early: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52113186 )

Dude, NO ONE in January in the US was talking about lockdowns. That's the ultimate example of revising history to push a political narrative.
 
Let's separate beef and flies.
1) He said more lives could be saved, if lock downs started earlier <= what the heck is here to argue about?
2) He was OK with people not distancing on 29th of Feb

#2 makes him wrong/change his mind, it doesn't make him a liar.

And it doesn't matter AT ALL that somebody could use his words against Trump. (also note that lockdowns were implemented by state governors and actually there are some who acted early: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52113186 )

Dr. Fauci's full claim:

Assumption: If Trump had listened to experts

Conclusion: Then lives would have been saved.

What experts should Trump have listened too? Fauci is supposedly a lead expert and had said that nothing should be done with regards to lockdowns or changing day-to-day life. If he claims that experts like him were saying stuff should be done earlier than they should have, then that is a lie.
 
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Don't we have vaccines that are 99.99% guaranteed to work for other types of viral infections? Are coronaviruses special in some way? Do they mutate faster or something? (I'm aware some strains of the cold are in the CV family.)
From my also limited understanding, coronaviruses are RNA viruses, like influenza. RNA viruses tend to mutate much faster due to the nature of RNA. Compare it to say the chicken pox, which is a DNA virus, and mutates very slow, so when we get the chicken pox once we don't have to worry
about getting it again, because the virus doesn't mutate enough to evade our immune systems.
And logically, the more people carrying the virus, the more opportunity it has to mutate, so if millions upon millions get infected, it could very likely end up where there are strains about next year that vaccines don't work on.
Now it could be that it mutates into a form less deadly, or that even if it mutates, the vaccines still work somewhat. No idea.
 
The UK has always said it's aim is to flatten the curve, rarher than get cases down to zero. With the peak seemingly approaching and with so many ICU beds to spare, I wonder if they will start to loosen some of the lockdown features fairly soon (maybe letting kids go back to school after the Easter break, schools always being considered relatively low risk):

 
I just talked to her.

She said the workplace lied and she hasn't been feeling well all last week.

She went to the hospital and is now awaiting her test results. Also, the story is in fact older (April 7th was the first case) but she never heard anything about it while she was there.

I'm also working at a care home in Canada.

When our outbreak first happened we were expecting support from the govt - but we soon realized the govt. has nothing in place to help care homes during pandemics.

All I can say is your mom needs to wash her hands throughout the day (50 times a day would not be unreasonable) and that everyone should always be wearing a mask. The masks are worn to prevent sick people from infecting others. I know one staff member who was positive, but didn't know it, and was coughing in front of everyone's face - but she had a mask on, which saved many people.

Also, the importance of not touching one's face cannot be exaggerated. Your mom needs to train herself how to do this. Also, she should not stay in small rooms where sick people have been, or where other staff congregate, because the virus will linger in the air.

So...
1) A ridiculous amount of hand washing.
2) Wear a mask. Get angry if others aren't wearing masks.
3) Don't touch your face!
4) Stay away from small rooms where sick people are or have been. If you have no PPE then refuse to enter such rooms.
5) Be leery of fellow staff members. If you don't need to be near them then stay away.
 
Canada and their seinor residence is going to be a huge scandal when this is all said and done. What happend in Quebec was disgusting, and I fear that its not going to be the last story we are going to read about.
 
Seems like things are getting better. This thread and Era's are starting to drag it a bit. And that's good.

for me, I think it's acceptance. This is the new reality. Since this all started I'm seeing more people wearing masks and practicing social distancing. Clearly there are some that do not care one way or another.

After work, I'll drive to a spot and go for a long bike ride. Come home and catch up on shows that I rarely watch before this all went down.

make the most of it.
 
Is this Fauci stuff from the CNN interview yesterday?



Watch the whole thing. Fauci very much qualifies and contextualizes his statements and it's hard to find much fault in them...
 
for me, I think it's acceptance. This is the new reality. Since this all started I'm seeing more people wearing masks and practicing social distancing. Clearly there are some that do not care one way or another.

After work, I'll drive to a spot and go for a long bike ride. Come home and catch up on shows that I rarely watch before this all went down.

make the most of it.

The new reality for now.

After a vaccine is made, everything is back to normal.

Other pandemics have happened. We just haven't experienced them.

Don't forget about the black death.
 
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Newest chart from Norway

y2d9ub6.png


Red: Hospitalized
Cyan: Intensive care
Purple: On respirator

Small country = Low numbers. But the trend is promising, shows that measures and restrictions are working (and keeping hospitals afloat).
 
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The new narrative this week is that all of the testing numbers are wrong and we can't lift any lockdowns. All the liberal talking heads on Fox are pushing it now.
 
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