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[notseqi]

I have a theory about Covid. It comes from some 1rst account doctor experience that I have come across from friends in the profession and other places. This theory isn't unfounded, or even crazy, though if it turns out being true it will be completely tragic.

My theory is that the strange randomness of Covid severity is linked to Vitamin D levels and THEN age/comorbidities. People who are old, fat, or shut ins generally have low vitamin d levels. People can also be perfectly healthy and also have low vitamin d levels because they do all their exercising inside and don't get enough sun. I have been following a few doctors that swear that mega dosing Vitamin D at the beginning of the infection leads to much better outcomes. Most ERs are pumping Vitamin D into people even though its likely too late.

Here is where I get to the tragic part of this theory. The absolute best way to get Vitamin D is to go outside and get sun, but sunlight has been demonized for a long time due of the risk of skin cancer. Still even with 10 pounds of sunscreen on you are still getting more vitamin d than if you took it in pill form. So, the summer months should have gotten our bodies ready for the onslaught of covid in the winter right? Not if you were locked down in your home, sheltering in place and told not to go outside during the spring and summer months because all the parks, and other outdoor venues are closed .

You see where the tragedy is? The lockdowns in spring and summer may have created far more Vitamin D deficient people perfect for this virus to get ahold of.

I went to the doctor in October and was shocked to find out I was Vitamin D deficient. I have recently lost a bunch of weight, and was doing a lot of outdoor jogging (in the evening) and other activities. My PCP immediately had me start megadosing Vitamin D to get my levels back up. I am still on the pills as of today.

So that's my theory...that Vitamin D deficiency will eventually be linked to worse outcomes with covid and that the lockdowns led to increased vitamin d deficiency in the populous. A tragic outcome of forcing people indoors.

Prescribe more dogs!
I'm getting a lot of sun even now that it's regularly below freezing temps.

 

[Joe T.]

A qualified 'yes', they will be, even moreso if you take the '...aggravated by [corona virus symptom]'. I however don't believe 'it's just the flu'.
I expect brutal scenes should all measures be dropped. Skeptic about Tansania, their border regions/trade routes are Corona hotbeds.

They are which I think strengthens my point about the PCR tests and how Tanzania has avoided to get overwhelmed. That aside, it's good to see we can at least agree the case numbers are exaggerated. That's something others here still can't come to grips with and makes discussion difficult.

Am I to understand you don't want a return to pre-pandemic normal? You've avoided it twice now. It's not a gotcha question, I'm genuinely curious. Some people here obviously prefer that totalitarian government approach, though it hasn't helped them avoid future restrictions and lockdowns as they claimed it did/would (see the return to Hubei's total lockdown a year later, source: NBC News).

I may have said it before, but I'll say it again: the same tools used to weaponize this virus into a worldwide life-altering pandemic can also be used to destroy it.

 

[notseqi]

Am I to understand you don't want a return to pre-pandemic normal? You've avoided it twice now. It's not a gotcha question, I'm genuinely curious.

Must have slipped my mind; of course I want that. I'm a very social person but I built around travel restrictions, visiting my friends by bike by riding 60-100miles. Restricted since last week to 10mi radius without valid reason like work, doctors appointments etc.
Added eases: I haven't had problems getting around the country a fair bit due to work, so I'm 'getting out' aswell. Have been employed and working the whole time. No corona cases in the company, everybody takes that shit serious - not to go back to the whole discussion from above - that is where my belief in some of the measures comes from.

 

[FireFly]

That you're unaware of Taiwan's testing is curious, I presented that to you in a previous reply. A direct link to OurWorldInData showing a comparison between Taiwan and South Korea (on the lower end of the testing spectrum) can be found here.

Interesting to see what's happening to case numbers in South Korea.

COVID-19 Data Explorer

Explore global data on COVID-19.

ourworldindata.org

 

[Joe T.]

Must have slipped my mind; of course I want that. I'm a very social person but I built around travel restrictions, visiting my friends by bike by riding 60-100miles. Restricted since last week to 10mi radius without valid reason like work, doctors appointments etc.
Added eases: I haven't had problems getting around the country a fair bit due to work, so I'm 'getting out' aswell. Have been employed and working the whole time. No corona cases in the company, everybody takes that shit serious - not to go back to the whole discussion from above - that is where my belief in some of the measures comes from.

I don't think the two of us are all that different, work travel and skepticism aside.

This pandemic has been overplayed to hell and back here in Canada, Quebec and Montreal in particular where annual numbers are not out of the ordinary - the news and government scream otherwise as they highlight "excess deaths" completely out of context, ignoring comparisons to prior years. The news also ignores that data and more when the government itself brings it, a red flag few appear to notice because they don't watch the daily briefings or Q&A between opposition parties. They're boring so who can blame them, but effective at understanding what's happening and why.

Masks got mandated here in all indoors areas only in mid-July despite the cases having been in steady decline for weeks already and not showing a rise again until late August (not a return to school's fault). This city relies heavily on tourism and that obviously took a beating, my "release valve" along with it since I love going out once or twice a week to hit up the local festivals, etc.

The government repeatedly threatens the public here with excessive fines ($850+ US for not wearing a mask or social distancing) and business closures which is all about striking fear and intimidation - no need for any of that if the public was convinced this virus was dangerous. Their contradictions from March to present day are numerous and on video, they make Fauci look good by comparison.

I'm as skeptical as they come and dug deep on what was going on because it wasn't just detrimental to myself/family but the city, country and world as a whole. I watched all the national US and Canadian briefings, all the daily Quebec and Montreal briefings, occasionally some of the city/county/state briefings from the US and those from various areas of the world like the UK, France, Italy, Australia and New Zealand. When the news outlets started attacking Sweden it became clear there was an agenda at play because their claims didn't match reality. The attacks against Trump and Bolsonaro were nothing out of the ordinary, though in some ways those were completely ridiculous throughout the pandemic, too.

I also dug deep into a lot of the pre-covid mask studies and opinions from years/decades past which is why I can't be fooled into accepting them the same way the average person on the street can. This is an aerosolized virus, so when you see that masks and distancing were in fact not recommended against the flu - and masks hadn't done much to slow/stop the flu in Asian countries - why would any rational person that already looked at the data suddenly reverse course? It wasn't based on any scientific evidence.

And that's the crux of the problem - much of what we adopted as "public health"/mitigation measures were not backed by science. "Follow the science" was used to mask this (pun intended).

The R0 or contagiousness of the virus is itself based on the oversensitive PCR tests where 80% or more of positive cases are asymptomatic. Asymptomatic spread doesn't drive pandemics, it's rare. Fauci said this, the WHO said this and it's based on scientific understanding of viruses throughout history up until this point. This coronavirus isn't an exception.

Much of our understanding of this virus and the pandemic is based on layers upon layers of lies. That should concern everyone and force them to go back to scrutinize what they were told - much of it, like the daily reporting of new "infectious cases," is deceptive. A positive PCR test result is automatically interpreted as an infectious case and it shouldn't be.

 

[cryptoadam]

I have a theory about Covid. It comes from some doctor experiences that I have come across from friends in the profession and other places. This theory isn't unfounded, or even crazy, though if it turns out being true it will be completely tragic.

My theory is that the strange randomness of Covid severity is linked to Vitamin D levels and THEN age/comorbidities. People who are old, fat, or shut ins generally have low vitamin d levels. People can also be perfectly healthy and also have low vitamin d levels because they do all their exercising inside and don't get enough sun. I have been following a few doctors that swear that mega dosing Vitamin D at the beginning of the infection leads to much better outcomes (though not perfect outcomes). Most ERs are pumping Vitamin D into people even though its likely too late.

Here is where I get to the tragic part of this theory. The absolute best way to get Vitamin D is to go outside and get sun, but sunlight has been demonized for a long time due of the risk of skin cancer. Still even with 10 pounds of sunscreen on you are still getting more vitamin d than if you took it in pill form. So, the summer months should have gotten our bodies ready for the onslaught of covid in the winter right? Not if you were locked down in your home, sheltering in place and told not to go outside during the spring and summer months because all the parks, and other outdoor venues are closed .

You see where the tragedy is? The lockdowns in spring and summer may have created far more Vitamin D deficient people perfect for this virus to get ahold of.

I went to the doctor in October and was shocked to find out I was Vitamin D deficient. I have recently lost a bunch of weight, and was doing a lot of outdoor jogging (in the evening) and other activities. My PCP immediately had me start megadosing Vitamin D to get my levels back up. I am still on the pills as of today.

So that's my theory...that Vitamin D deficiency will eventually be linked to worse outcomes with covid and that the lockdowns led to increased vitamin d deficiency in the populous. A tragic outcome of forcing people indoors.

From Harvard Health

Op-Ed: Don't Let COVID-19 Patients Die With Vitamin D Deficiency

We can't wait for perfect evidence

www.medpagetoday.com

The big issue with Vitamin D is that uptake from pill form isn't super hot even while megadosing. So if you get Covid, and are deficient, you are not gonna be able to fix it in time. Mega dosing usually takes 8-12 weeks to get you back to normal levels. People with normal levels are supposed to Megadose when they get a covid diagnosis.

BTW, Vitamin D can fuck your kidneys up if you take too much of it so consult your doctor before doing anything. (See Vitamin D Toxicity)

Vitmain D stuff is a tragedy. This has been known for months, like back in last April/May. Easy to just get everyone some Vit D and sunshine.

But nope, that and being fat are two things barely every talked about with COVID.

 

[DeepBreath87]

It'll be about as useful as the flu vaccine, so it likely will become regular for mutations and the like...though the Pfizer one had pretty impressive results for a vaccine.

Getting any protection now is more important.

What I mean by not turning the train around is that I’m between dose 1 and 2. ADE is kind of a scary concept where a vaccine (not this one, just a generic vaccine) would actually make an infection worse. It’s fairly well documented. I’m assuming they’ve considered that though, so I’m not terribly worried about it. It was just the only thing I read that gave me pause.

 

[CrapSandwich]

I'm always curious about Japan's relationship with Covid because they've done so comparatively well despite the lack of lockdowns and testing. A lot of possibilities may be at play. They've got a lot of old people, but those old people may be isolating very well. Very low obesity and vitamin D deficiency. Potential benefit of universal BCG vaccine or of pre-existing immunities due to ancient epidemics in East-Asia. I found the following commentary interesting which doesn't provide any answers, but the point shouldn't be lost that Japan's success should be looked at more closely.

The West should envy Japan’s COVID-19 response

The virus is not unprecedented, but the draconian societal shutdowns are. Who would have expected Western democracies to mimic authoritarian China?

www.japantimes.co.jp

 

[Draef the Badger]

What I mean by not turning the train around is that I’m between dose 1 and 2. ADE is kind of a scary concept where a vaccine (not this one, just a generic vaccine) would actually make an infection worse. It’s fairly well documented. I’m assuming they’ve considered that though, so I’m not terribly worried about it. It was just the only thing I read that gave me pause.

Yeah, its an unusual position this virus has put us in simply because the West was garbage-prepared for a pandemic coming from anywhere.

 

[Aarbron]

Some humour for us all:

Woman fined for walking husband on leash to get around curfew rules

honey.nine.com.au

 

[cryptoadam]

I'm always curious about Japan's relationship with Covid because they've done so comparatively well despite the lack of lockdowns and testing. A lot of possibilities may be at play. They've got a lot of old people, but those old people may be isolating very well. Very low obesity and vitamin D deficiency. Potential benefit of universal BCG vaccine or of pre-existing immunities due to ancient epidemics in East-Asia. I found the following commentary interesting which doesn't provide any answers, but the point shouldn't be lost that Japan's success should be looked at more closely.

The West should envy Japan’s COVID-19 response

The virus is not unprecedented, but the draconian societal shutdowns are. Who would have expected Western democracies to mimic authoritarian China?

www.japantimes.co.jp

They just found a new strain.



Also had a new high of 7K cases. And with their limited testing who knows the real number.

Looks like rona all about mutating now.

 

[Joe T.]

They just found a new strain.



Also had a new high of 7K cases. And with their limited testing who knows the real number.

Looks like rona all about mutating now.

These new strains are all to pump up interest in vaccines. The UK, South Africa and Japan all have one thing in common and I'm sure everyone can guess what it is (click to resize):

I saw Alex Berenson mention Israel's rising case numbers despite having vaccinated about 20% of their population already and the same applies there, testing numbers on a steep rise.

 

[cryptoadam]

Funny enough I saw an ad coming from NY. Just some CV propaganda. But they said to get tested often even with no symptoms. Like a weekly thing. Rest of the ad was the usual wear your mask all in this together etc...

 

[MisterFalcon]

They are which I think strengthens my point about the PCR tests and how Tanzania has avoided to get overwhelmed.

Tanzania, like Belarus, is a one party state based on Communism where anything reflecting badly on the rulers is simply erased from reporting.

 

[FunkMiller]

These new strains are all to pump up interest in vaccines. The UK, South Africa and Japan all have one thing in common and I'm sure everyone can guess what it is (click to resize):

I saw Alex Berenson mention Israel's rising case numbers despite having vaccinated about 20% of their population already and the same applies there, testing numbers on a steep rise.

Conspiracy theory level bullshit.

 

[CrapSandwich]

They just found a new strain.



Also had a new high of 7K cases. And with their limited testing who knows the real number.

Looks like rona all about mutating now.

7K for a country of 120 million is still amazingly low, at least compared to the West. I wouldn't read too much into that either way as people are attempting to look at positive results linearly when the methodology is anything but linear (and subject to a couple glaring issues). Hospitilizations and deaths are probably more reliable indicators, but those too aren't generally going to be an apples to apples comparison because of the different standards and methods used to gather those numbers from place to place. Their hospital system seems to be under some strain right now so I would suspect that they are experiencing a spike and a new mutation seems like a good place to start in explaining that. But there's so many open questions in unravelling that mystery and the data is still too fresh. For the time being, their covid results remain excellent, comparatively, which is interesting because they are an outlier in several important ways. I mention that their covid results look excellent because some other factors do not. If old people really are holing themselves up in isolation for the better part of a year, that's sad. Their suicides have increased substantially. There's a real mental health cost being dealt with there, and that has to be in the accounting.

 

[FireFly]

Vancouver company’s anti-COVID-19 nasal spray to start clinical trials in U.K. | Globalnews.ca

The product will begin clinical trials in the U.K. on Tuesday with patients who have tested positive for COVID-19.

globalnews.ca

 

[CrapSandwich]

Conspiracy theory level bullshit.

Public health officials definitely want people to get vaccinated and they're definitely going to craft their messaging to that end. Honestly, in this day and age when almost all messaging that we consume is crafted with some conscious intent behind it, you'd have to be a bit thick to not assume that that's going on with the vaccine push. Whether that's the source of why we're hearing about this new strain now is certainly a legitimate question. To go a step further, if that's not the source of this new news, then what is the message that's being pushed? It's going to exist, it's going to be something. The fact that people have been terrorized with corona news for almost a year now, even through the summer lull, means that scare tactics are clearly in the repertoire. So whether you're talking about exaggerated models or inflated infection fatality rate estimates or policy flip-flops or the blatant hypocrisy of government officials or unscientific policy or even government policy that has led to more deaths outright, our "leaders" have absolutely done a real number on public trust and they should be held to some responsibility for that. People don't really have much choice other than to draw their own conclusions (which is a really good thing in some ways, maybe not so good in others). Doing a drive by and yelling conspiracy theory doesn't help anything, though. Not you, not me, not Joe T., not anyone.

 

[FunkMiller]

Public health officials definitely want people to get vaccinated and they're definitely going to craft their messaging to that end. Honestly, in this day and age when almost all messaging that we consume is crafted with some conscious intent behind it, you'd have to be a bit thick to not assume that that's going on with the vaccine push. Whether that's the source of why we're hearing about this new strain now is certainly a legitimate question. To go a step further, if that's not the source of this new news, then what is the message that's being pushed? It's going to exist, it's going to be something. The fact that people have been terrorized with corona news for almost a year now, even through the summer lull, means that scare tactics are clearly in the repertoire. So whether you're talking about exaggerated models or inflated infection fatality rate estimates or policy flip-flops or the blatant hypocrisy of government officials or unscientific policy or even government policy that has led to more deaths outright, our "leaders" have absolutely done a real number on public trust and they should be held to some responsibility for that. People don't really have much choice other than to draw their own conclusions (which is a really good thing in some ways, maybe not so good in others). Doing a drive by and yelling conspiracy theory doesn't help anything, though. Not you, not me, not Joe T., not anyone.

The idea that new strains are being created or pushed in order to convince people to get vaccines is conspiracy theory bullshit, mainly championed by people who have no idea about the epidemiology of viruses.

 

[CrapSandwich]

The idea that new strains are being created or pushed in order to convince people to get vaccines is conspiracy theory bullshit, mainly championed by people who have no idea about the epidemiology of viruses.

Well then, what is the messaging that's being pushed to convince people to get vaccinated? It's there, it's something. What is it?

 

[FunkMiller]

Well then, what is the messaging that's being pushed to convince people to get vaccinated? It's there, it's something. What is it?

Are you kidding?

”Get vaccinated to protect yourself from catching, and potentially suffering badly from, Covid 19”.

 

[CrapSandwich]

Are you kidding?

”Get vaccinated to protect yourself from catching, and potentially suffering badly from, Covid 19”.

So you don't think there's any message-craft going on? Am I understanding you correctly?

 

[DeepBreath87]

The idea that new strains are being created or pushed in order to convince people to get vaccines is conspiracy theory bullshit, mainly championed by people who have no idea about the epidemiology of viruses.

I think it’s more about why this is suddenly news. New mutations are naturally occurring. They’ve been occurring this entire time with little fanfare.

Suddenly they are big news. So it’s rational to wonder what that’s about. The UK variant appearing to be more transmissible is one reason I’m sure. But these other varieties haven’t really demonstrated anything significant. So it is a bit curious that suddenly every mutation is being sensationalized, regardless of whether the mutations have any relevance to the public. I’m thinking it’s more about grabbing headlines than it is anything else though.

 

[FunkMiller]

So you don't think there's any message-craft going on? Am I understanding you correctly?

Yes. You are.

What’s your intimation by ‘message-craft’?

That governments are deliberately shaping their message for ulterior purposes?

Because if that is your claim, you‘d better have some evidence to back it up.

 

[FunkMiller]

I think it’s more about why this is suddenly news. New mutations are naturally occurring. They’ve been occurring this entire time with little fanfare.

Suddenly they are big news. So it’s rational to wonder what that’s about. The UK variant appearing to be more transmissible is one reason I’m sure. But these other varieties haven’t really demonstrated anything significant. So it is a bit curious that suddenly every mutation is being sensationalized, regardless of whether the mutations have any relevance to the public. I’m thinking it’s more about grabbing headlines than it is anything else though.

No disagreement on headline grabbing. It’s what they exist for.

However, the variants being highlighted are those with mutations large enough to pose further or greater public health risk. Mutations that do not do this are not being talked about, understandably.

 

[CrapSandwich]

Yes. You are.

What’s your intimation by ‘message-craft’?

That governments are deliberately shaping their message for ulterior purposes?

Because if that is your claim, you‘d better have some evidence to back it up.

Yes and no. Ulterior is not the right word in every case, but defintely in some cases. As I said just a couple moments ago:

Public health officials definitely want people to get vaccinated and they're definitely going to craft their messaging to that end. Honestly, in this day and age when almost all messaging that we consume is crafted with some conscious intent behind it, you'd have to be a bit thick to not assume that that's going on with the vaccine push. Whether that's the source of why we're hearing about this new strain now is certainly a legitimate question. To go a step further, if that's not the source of this new news, then what is the message that's being pushed? It's going to exist, it's going to be something. The fact that people have been terrorized with corona news for almost a year now, even through the summer lull, means that scare tactics are clearly in the repertoire. So whether you're talking about exaggerated models or inflated infection fatality rate estimates or policy flip-flops or the blatant hypocrisy of government officials or unscientific policy or even government policy that has led to more deaths outright, our "leaders" have absolutely done a real number on public trust and they should be held to some responsibility for that. People don't really have much choice other than to draw their own conclusions (which is a really good thing in some ways, maybe not so good in others). Doing a drive by and yelling conspiracy theory doesn't help anything, though. Not you, not me, not Joe T., not anyone.

 

[DeepBreath87]

No disagreement on headline grabbing. It’s what they exist for.

However, the variants being highlighted are those with mutations large enough to pose further or greater public health risk. Mutations that do not do this are not being talked about, understandably.

I’m not informed on whether these different varieties I keep hearing about have demonstrated anything significant. I know about the UK one, but then I’ve read about one in South Africa, South Korea, now Japan. Have any of these others shown they actually change how the virus operates?

It would probably behoove public health officials to determine whether these new strains pose any actual risk to the public before we get too spun up about them.

 

[FunkMiller]

Yes and no. Ulterior is not the right word in every case, but defintely in some cases. As I said just a couple moments ago:

Ah, you see to me ‘message craft‘ indicates a deliberate attempt on the part of state actors to falsify information they are transmitting for ulterior motives other than the ones openly expressed.

But if you’re highlighting gross incompetence - and the poor messaging brought about by it - you have no argument from me.

No governments are secretly using Covid to control the population, but they are sure as shit doing a piss poor job of handling it, by and large.

 

[FunkMiller]

I’m not informed on whether these different varieties I keep hearing about have demonstrated anything significant. I know about the UK one, but then I’ve read about one in South Africa, South Korea, now Japan. Have any of these others shown they actually change how the virus operates?

It would probably behoove public health officials to determine whether these new strains pose any actual risk to the public before we get too spun up about them.

They all seem to be mutations in the spike protein that increase transmissibility, but not lethality. Enough to warrant attention and coverage.

Frankly, virus mutations eventually become good things. Viruses want to survive. They mutate to do this, and often become much less lethal, because who wants to kill off all those lovely hosts?

Fingers crossed this occurs with Covid - sadly no evidence thus far.

 

[CrapSandwich]

Ah, you see to me ‘message craft‘ indicates a deliberate attempt on the part of state actors to falsify information they are transmitting for ulterior motives other than the ones openly expressed.

But if you’re highlighting gross incompetence - and the poor messaging brought about by it - you have no argument from me.

No governments are secretly using Covid to control the population, but they are sure as shit doing a piss poor job of handling it, by and large.

It's a very nuanced situation where there have been both. When the head of the WHO deliberately lied about the IFR being 3.2%, that was not gross incompetence. When politicians considered their political futures while crafting policy, that is not gross incompetence. When Fauci said that masks don't help or that they do (obviously both are not correct), it wasn't gross incompetence. Saying that governments are using covid to "control the population" is a straw-man. People are more complicated than simply being big, evil, bad guys, but that doesn't mean that they're pure little angels who may have innocently gotten a few things wrong, either. The truth is somewhere in the middle, and to suggest that public messaging isn't being crafted with some fudging of the truth at least is so beautifully naive that I want to kiss you right on the mouth.

 

[FunkMiller]

It's a very nuanced situation where there have been both. When the head of the WHO deliberately lied about the IFR being 3.2%, that was not gross incompetence. When politicians considered their political futures while crafting policy, that is not gross incompetence. When Fauci said that masks don't help or that they do (obviously both are not correct), it wasn't gross incompetence. Saying that governments are using covid to "control the population" is a straw-man. People are more complicated than simply being big, evil, bad guys, but that doesn't mean that they're pure little angels who may have innocently gotten a few things wrong, either. The truth is somewhere in the middle, and to suggest that public messaging isn't being crafted with some fudging of the truth at least is so beautifully naive that I want to kiss you right on the mouth.

You’re saying you believe you’re deliberately being lied to about Covid for ulterior motives, which I clearly don’t, so let’s just leave it there.

 

[CrapSandwich]

You’re saying you believe you’re deliberately being lied to about Covid for ulterior motives, which I clearly don’t, so let’s just leave it there.

To believe it's all completely innoncent is insane, and yet here you are calling other people crazy conspiracy nuts. While the point wasn't and isn't backed up with facts, it's not at all unreasonable, either. This news of the terrible new strain initially came out of the U.K. government, IIRC. The same bunch that held up Ferguson's insane, bullshit model of "everybody's gonna die" in order to scare people into accepting lockdown. The point being that there is a strong basis for skepticism here.

 

[DeepBreath87]

They all seem to be mutations in the spike protein that increase transmissibility, but not lethality. Enough to warrant attention and coverage.

Frankly, virus mutations eventually become good things. Viruses want to survive. They mutate to do this, and often become much less lethal, because who wants to kill off all those lovely hosts?

Fingers crossed this occurs with Covid - sadly no evidence thus far.

Who knows. It’s going to become a part of normal life to a certain degree. Hopefully between vaccinations and disease acquired immunity, we can keep it at a manageable level and with time it will mutated to something less severe. But it will never go away now. It’s just too endemic.

 

[FireFly]

When Fauci said that masks don't help or that they do (obviously both are not correct), it wasn't gross incompetence. Saying that governments are using covid to "control the population" is a straw-man.

It's literally the position taken by a substantial proportion of people on this forum (see "The Great Reset"). Don't underestimate the appeal of good guys vs. bad guys. The world may be shades of grey, but people like black and white answers. Ironically, that's exactly why the public health messaging is as it is – to pretend that the impact of particular behaviours is clear cut, when really it is not.

 

[DeepBreath87]

It's literally the position taken by a substantial proportion of people on this forum (see "The Great Reset"). Don't underestimate the appeal of good guys vs. bad guys. The world may be shades of grey, but people like black and white answers. Ironically, that's exactly why the public health messaging is as it is – to pretend that the impact of particular behaviours is clear cut, when really it is not.

See but the idea people are “using covid to control the population” falls right in line with that logic. It’s not that they are using covid so much as they are using this moment as an opportunity to enact different policies that may or may not be strictly about covid response. I don’t think it’s a wild conspiracy theory to think that is happening at times.

Where people run astray is when they start to think EVERYTHING is manipulation, including the virus itself. There is definitely agendas at play here. Many are good. Most of this is about public health. But it’s foolish to think there aren’t also people who see this as an opportunity.

 

[cryptoadam]

7K for a country of 120 million is still amazingly low, at least compared to the West. I wouldn't read too much into that either way as people are attempting to look at positive results linearly when the methodology is anything but linear (and subject to a couple glaring issues). Hospitilizations and deaths are probably more reliable indicators, but those too aren't generally going to be an apples to apples comparison because of the different standards and methods used to gather those numbers from place to place. Their hospital system seems to be under some strain right now so I would suspect that they are experiencing a spike and a new mutation seems like a good place to start in explaining that. But there's so many open questions in unravelling that mystery and the data is still too fresh. For the time being, their covid results remain excellent, comparatively, which is interesting because they are an outlier in several important ways. I mention that their covid results look excellent because some other factors do not. If old people really are holing themselves up in isolation for the better part of a year, that's sad. Their suicides have increased substantially. There's a real mental health cost being dealt with there, and that has to be in the accounting.

Or if you just don't really care much and test much you won't have big problems? Africa is in the same boat (aside from South Africa, the most western country there) and then you have places like Joe T pointed out like Belarus, Tanzania and Sweden (but Sweden like Japan is getting a surge).

I think overall healthy, especially how fat and vit D your nation is plays a role. But 7K for 120 million, but if Japan did as many tests as the US did I bet they have more than 7K cases. Especially if you test asymptomatic people constantly and up the CT levels.

 

[FireFly]

See but the idea people are “using covid to control the population” falls right in line with that logic. It’s not that they are using covid so much as they are using this moment as an opportunity to enact different policies that may or may not be strictly about covid response. I don’t think it’s a wild conspiracy theory to think that is happening at times.

Where people run astray is when they start to think EVERYTHING is manipulation, including the virus itself. There is definitely agendas at play here. Many are good. Most of this is about public health. But it’s foolish to think there aren’t also people who see this as an opportunity.

Yes, we don't disagree. It would be nice to be able to have a discussion that takes place between the extreme that the government would never to us and the extreme that every lie is part of an elaborate plan to put in place a new world order.

 

[ipukespiders]

I think I’ll stay actually. I’m not antimask so much as I’m pro vaccine. Once I’m vaccinated, the mask will no longer be necessary. I am skeptical that wide scale mask wearing is making a meaningful difference in the spread of the virus. The best anyone can do is point to news articles about how this one time in a coffee shop/hairsalon...

But regardless, if you want to play dress up with your buddy even after you’ve had the vaccine, don’t let me stop you, obviously.

As much as I hate masks, I believe they are effective. Anyone that's read my posts knows that I'm no lefty NPC.

We've been required to wear them since the summer here in Nova Scotia and our infection numbers are incredibly low. I also don't know of anyone that has even gotten so much as a common cold in this time. It's kinda nice that you can always count on no one ever "calling in sick" and have to scramble to get a replacement at work.
Wearing a mask in a busy cafe running around filling coffee cups for the 3rd time while customers complain for me to turn up the heat sucks ass. As does standing over a hot grill, or a dish pit.

Effective? I think so.

 

[Guileless]

 

[DeepBreath87]

This has basically been my argument. All methods for controlling the virus have failed. You can blame that on whatever you want. Bad policies. Noncompliance. Trump. The nature of the virus. Whatever. Doesn’t matter. All failures.

But when it comes to economic devastation there is only one place to lay blame and that is the politicians. The heavy handed approach not only failed to control the virus. It also destroyed the economy. All that cost for literally no benefit.

 

[Vow of Silence]

Yes. You are.

What’s your intimation by ‘message-craft’?

That governments are deliberately shaping their message for ulterior purposes?

Because if that is your claim, you‘d better have some evidence to back it up.

Depends what you mean by ulterior, but it's not debatable whether governments try to influence people's behaviour via messaging:

COVID Coercion UK: SAGE Documents Reveal Psychological Operations Against Public - 21st Century Wire

Mike Robinson | Internal government documents reveal direct psychological operations being waged against the UK population.

21stcenturywire.com

Original pdf from SPI-B: https://assets.publishing.service.g...ce-to-social-distancing-measures-22032020.pdf

The 'Persuasion' and 'Coercion' sections are of particular interest:

Persuasion
Perceived threat: A substantial number of people still do not feel sufficiently personally threatened; itcould be that they are reassured by the low death rate in their demographic group(8), although levels of concern may be rising(9). Having a good understanding of the risk has been found to be positively associated with adoption of COVID-19 social distancing measures in Hong Kong (10). The perceived level of personal threat needs to be increased among those who are complacent, using hard-hitting emotional messaging.

The above is basically saying we need to deliberately scare people, so using fear to control people's behaviour. The document is not related to the effectiveness of any of the measures, only how to get people to adhere to them.

Coercion
Social disapproval: Social disapproval from one’s community can play an important role in preventing anti-social behaviour or discouraging failure to enact pro-social behaviour (15). However, this needs to be carefully managed to avoid victimisation, scapegoating and misdirected criticism. It needs to be accompanied by clear messaging and promotion of strong collective identity. Consideration should be given to use of social disapproval but with a strong caveat around unwanted negative consequences.

This acknowledges they are playing with fire by creating an outgroup that can be victimised. The strong caveat was not heeded at all and full throated encouragement to shame non-mask wearers was taken from the outset:

Metro Newspaper site Metro.news has a new online home on Metro.co.uk | Metro UK

Exciting news: Metro.News has merged with metro.co.uk!

www.metro.news

In my view this approach has been disastrous. It has given moral busy bodies, snitches and jobsworths the government approved moral high ground to victimise and attack people who question the government measures, and even asking questions around the effectiveness of the measures as something which is now subject to social disapproval.

I know of one disabled lady who lives locally who is terrified of going to the shops because she has breathing difficulties and cannot wear a mask, but she is scared of the social disapproval and dirty looks she is given.

This would even be an issue if masks work, which there is no strong evidence that they do. The major RCT trials on masks, which are the highest standard evidence we have, are inconclusive other than to say that cloth masks may actually increase respiratory infections.

A cluster randomised trial of cloth masks compared with medical masks in healthcare workers - PubMed

Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry: ACTRN12610000887077.

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

ACP Journals

Mandating masks has also been tested in court, and masks lost:



The updated advice on masks was due to political pressure, the WHO told a BBC Newsnight journalist:



Here is another collection of studies on masks that is worth reviewing:

Leonard Pozner vs. James Fetzer - Dane County Case 2018CV003122

Wisconsin Circuit Court Access. Dane County Case Number 2018CV003122 Leonard Pozner vs. James Fetzer et al. Stamped Summons,

jamesfetzer.org

And a German mask study shows harmful effects on children: https://imperfectplan.com/2021/01/0...wearing-covid-masks-does-more-harm-than-good/

FunkMiller , I know you are pro-mask. I am not. I think they are damaging, and have become mostly signs of political allegiance and tools of compliance. I believe I have provided enough evidence in this post to 'show my working' and believe any reasonable person acknowledge that my position is valid, and there should be no government approved social shaming for those who do not want to wear them.

Are you at all swayed by any of this, and if not, why not?

 

[Chaplain]

 

[prag16]

Most healthcare worker i know are very carefull going outside, always wear mask, promote social distancing, wash the food they bought from groceries etc

Most healthcare workers you know are morons.

I’m not worried about spreading it after I’ve been vaccinated. No vaccines I’m aware of work that way. If they prove that can actually happen, I’ll worry about it. You can worry about it if you want.

To be fair, google "pertussis vaccine asymptomatic carrier". There's a ton out there on this. So it can be a thing. What kills me is that they push DTP on people who will be around new babies (e.g. grandparents etc) to "protect against dangerous whooping cough transmission to infants too young to be vaccinated", yet they're potentially a greater menace vaxxed than unvaxxed because the latter at least is more likely to have symptoms and realize they're infected.

In terms of COVID I read something that I can't find now going into why there's a fair chance it won't curtail transmission as much as would be hoped. Has to do with the mRNA only supplying instructions for creation of a very small percentage of all SARS-CoV2 proteins, so when antibodies are created they've very specific and while they seem to curtail severe symptoms in the limited testing done so far, they may very well not have the broad coverage needed to bludgeon the virus entirely as those with natural immunity seem to.

As for your health care credentials, I have zero formal healthcare/medical training, but work in healthcare IT, specifically clinical surveillance and MDI software. I know enough about mechanical ventilation to bullshit lay people into believing I'm a health care worker too probably lol.

Spoiler

(Just kidding, I don't disbelieve you as these other idiots do, I'm just breaking balls.)

Letting potentially sick people in, having to front the cost for their treatment and have them possibly die on your soil is a bit of a liability. Medical treatment tourism is a thing, ask Canada.

Why do I need to fork over a fuckton of data to the US if I want to enter the country on a passport I don't need any visa for in over 180 countries? They wanna check if I'm cool.

"Potentially sick people." That is literally anybody. Vax or not. COVID or not. If you are going to take people without the vaccine, term ONLY THEM as "potentially sick people" and create a category of second class citizens based on that, then the only sick person in this discussion is you (and anyone else in favor of this bullshit).

Who's to say those case counts wouldn't have been significantly higher without people wearing masks?

Who's to say they they would have been? We don't know and never can know. That's the beauty of this particular con. They never have to admit fault for taking the wrong course. But that being said there ARE countries as mentioned such as Belarus, Tanzania, and Sweden that didn't take the same exact path. All three of those countries should be black plague ridden disasters compared to all the "smart" countries in the west that "took this seriously", right? Closer to home, look at California vs. Florida. California is a dystopian hellscape right now while Florida is fully open and pretty normal. I'm sure Florida is dwarfing California's death rate, right? Oh, I see.

Indeed.

EDIT: Laugh it up Phunkydiabetic . Rest assured that it makes you come off as extremely intelligent.

 

[DeepBreath87]

I just thought this was interesting. Looking at New York now compared to last April. In April their reported 7-day average for cases peaked at 10,000. Deaths around that time peaked at 1000 per day.

Fast forward to today. New York’s cases are rising rapidly. Right now they’re 16,000 a day on average. 7 day average for deaths? About 175. More than 5 times lower than last spring. Now I’m sure the death numbers will continue to climb. But how many people were actually infected last spring? It had to be a crazy number. Like close to 100,000 infections a day just in New York.

 

[Mobile Suit Gooch]

what's the point, then?

 

[Airbus Jr]

Most healthcare workers you know are morons.

Hey thats not a nice thing to say dont you think prag

 

[iconmaster]

U.S. to change Covid vaccine allocation to favor states that quickly administer shots

The government is changing the way it allocates Covid vaccine doses, now basing it on how quickly states can administer shots and size of their elderly population.

www.cnbc.com

A few interesting things going on here...

Eligibility changes:

the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issues new guidelines that expand coronavirus vaccine eligibility to everyone 65 and older as well as to those with comorbid conditions, like diabetes and heart disease. The states’ focus on vaccinating health-care workers and nursing homes has created a bottleneck, slowing the pace of inoculations, a senior administration official told CNBC.

Shifting safety stock to available stock:

The Trump administration will also stop holding back millions of doses reserved for the second round of shots of Pfizer’s and Moderna’s two-dose vaccines, the official said, adding they’ve released doses that had been held in reserve on Sunday. President-elect Joe Biden’s transition team announced a similar plan Friday.

And the lede, which I’ve now buried:

The federal government is changing the way it allocates coronavirus vaccine doses, now basing it on how quickly states can administer shots and the size of their elderly population, Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar said Tuesday.

These all seem like things that should speed up vaccination – broadened eligibility in particular.

 

[pel1300]

A leftwing president calls lock downs "dictatorship"

Mexico's president calls virus lockdowns "dictatorship"

Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador suggested that politicians who impose lockdowns or curfews are acting like dictators.

apnews.com

 

[Chaplain]

 

[cryptoadam]

I just thought this was interesting. Looking at New York now compared to last April. In April their reported 7-day average for cases peaked at 10,000. Deaths around that time peaked at 1000 per day.

Fast forward to today. New York’s cases are rising rapidly. Right now they’re 16,000 a day on average. 7 day average for deaths? About 175. More than 5 times lower than last spring. Now I’m sure the death numbers will continue to climb. But how many people were actually infected last spring? It had to be a crazy number. Like close to 100,000 infections a day just in New York.

Nah Cuomo literally wrote the book on beating COVID. If anyone has this in the bag its him.