Eh. This thing was probably circulating well before it was officially sequenced. I'll wait for any resurgence instead of freaking out as cases plummet over a resurgence that "may" happen.
Also, lets say my optimism is misplaced. Whats the endgame here? A whole new pandemic that last another 2 years? I don't know I just don't see it. Plus the vaccine boosters to combat this more effectively are coming this fall so.
Why are cases in UK and South taking a nosedive? Why at the same time, when both discovered a different new variant at the same time?
Why are cases in UK and South taking a nosedive? Why at the same time, when both discovered a different new variant at the same time?
We haven't started vaccinating here in South Africa. We had an alcohol and beach ban. And it's been raining a lot lately.Theres a number of possibilities, although this affects the entire UK,
- Increased antibody levels (either through previous infections or vaccines taking effect)
- Lockdown effect lag
- Increased public awareness through adverts, hospital footage and bigger fines for people breaking party rules etc.
- another one is potentially the track and trace framework may be showing signs of working, but I've heard a few things related to this but nothing properly solid
I think also, the rest of the midlands and north are seeing less of a fall in new cases in comparison, a lag effect compared to the south.
I'm leaning towards the vaccine starting to show some signs of making a difference here, but it will be more pronounced in a few weeks time.
If R is kept below 1, the number of new daily cases will decay exponentially. The decline is probably steeper since the spread of the regular virus will be getting more severely restricted by the new measures, than the variant is.Why are cases in UK and South taking a nosedive? Why at the same time, when both discovered a different new variant at the same time?
Edited
Thing to note with Asia is that they believe a lot of the population have antibodies and t-cells from the original 2003 SARS1 outbreak, and this has helped prevent cases with COVID19.
Infection rate seems awfully low per populous to make that a reality.
2002–2004 SARS outbreak - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
“Protection against moderate-severe disease, hospitalisation or death could not be assessed in this study as the target population were at such low risk,” a statement issued by Oxford University and the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg said.
Congratz America, 87,000 new cases on the 07/02/21. Cases are dropping like flies.
The unusually long communicable incubation period offers a lot of leeway on this in Covid's case.How does this gibe with the fact that viruses, while they will tend to mutate towards greater transmissibility, will also tend to mutate towards less lethality? Interesting.
The unusually long communicable incubation period offers a lot of leeway on this in Covid's case.
The British variant, which is more infectious but not necessarily more deadly than others, was likely “to sweep the world”, Peacock said.
“Once we get on top of (the virus) or it mutates itself out of being virulent - causing disease - then we can stop worrying about it. But I think, looking in the future, we’re going to be doing this for years. We’re still going to be doing this 10 years down the line, in my view.”