May 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes June 7th

RexNovis said:
Based on what information? 2.7 million sold through WW including digital certainly doesnt ensure 1 million sold in NPD especially given the franchise's past sales split between US and ROTW. While I expect the sales split to be a bit more in favor of US this time around I'm sure the majority of copies will be sold outside of the US and when you add to that the 2.7 million figure includes both bundles and digital sales its easy to see how it might not make the cut to 1 million. I mean it certainly could break 1 million but its by no means a "definite" thing.
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Hey, dude, I don't know how to tell you this, but, 2.7 million is only week one sales. :P

Yes, there will be a massive drop just like most AAA titles, but I think Uncharted 4 definitely has a chance to cross 1 million.
 
The Uncharted bundle isn't going to do much to the overall picture either. It's May. A bit over 200k for PS4 would be an excellent result and most of that would be coming from the cheaper base models.
 
RexNovis said:
Interesting that you are predicting Homefront could possibly outsell Battleborn. I'm actually of the mind that the opposite is more likely thanks to the total lack of awareness/marketing that Homefront seemed to have followed up by its absolutely dreadful reviews. Say what you will about Battleborn but it was heavily advertised and had a sizeable beta so the awareness was certainly there (to a larger degree than Homefront anyway) and while it didnt set the world on fire with its reviews it also didnt totally bomb to the degree that Homefront did. I would honestly be surprised if Homefront manages to break 50k units.
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To me, the real battle will be Homefront and Battleborn as biggest flop of May. I only gave Homefront a higher range to fall below because I think even with all the shit it has against it, it's an FPS. It might actually sell to a crowd. Battleborn's entire launch will have been eaten by Overwatch. I don't see that doing well at all, especially with the discounts it got this month.

With the UC4 prediction and your OW 7:1 prediction are you expecting OW to take the number one slot this month? Personally, I think OW is going to have a huge digital skew since its both cheaper digitally on PC and PC seems to be the lead platform by far just going by twitch metrics, coverage and so forth. If we count digital I have no doubt OW would take first but since NPD is retail only I actually think Doom might outsell it for the month. But hey the discussions and differing opinions are what makes these predictions fun!
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I think the top 3 will be

1. Uncharted
2-3 Overwatch
2-3 DOOM

I think UC4 can do at least 900k on its own, it's just that bundle is a complete X factor to me.

Overwatch will have a higher digital share than most titles, but I don't know how well DOOM will do overall this month. I feel it really can be either or for #2 and #3.
 
Let's say Uncharted drops 80% each week.

That's 3.24 million end of week 2, and as Uncharted is only covered for 18 days in NPD, ~3.3 million. So even a third of sales being in the USA should have it easily clear a million.

However I don't know previous Uncharted and at time of each game's release PS3 (and the most current PS4) USA/ROTW splits though, which is what's needed to estimate Uncharted 4's sales. (Edit: and am on mobile, and no luck yet on search to see if we have that data)

Welfare said:
Don't forget that digital sales are included in the 2.7m number. Those are not counted in NPD.
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Lol, I'm a doofus, I was indeed thinking total US sales. So absolutely, say 1/3 digital? But still need all of the above data anyway that just cuts my hypothetical down below a million.
 
ElectricMonk said:
Let's say Uncharted drops 80% each week.

That's 3.24 million end of week 2, and as Uncharted is only covered for 18 days in NPD, ~3.3 million. So even a third of sales being in the USA should have it easily clear a million. I don't know previous Uncharted and at time of each game's release PS3 USA/ROTW splits though, which is what's needed to estimate Uncharted 4's sales.
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Don't forget that digital sales are included in the 2.7m number. Those are not counted in NPD.
 
Javin98 said:
Hey, dude, I don't know how to tell you this, but, 2.7 million is only week one sales. :P

Yes, there will be a massive drop just like most AAA titles, but I think Uncharted 4 definitely has a chance to cross 1 million.
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Which is why I specified
I mean it certainly could break 1 million but its by no means a "definite" thing.
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Welfare said:
To me, the real battle will be Homefront and Battleborn as biggest flop of May. I only gave Homefront a higher range to fall below because I think even with all the shit it has against it, it's an FPS. It might actually sell to a crowd. Battleborn's entire launch will have been eaten by Overwatch. I don't see that doing well at all, especially with the discounts it got this month.
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Battleborn is also technically an FPS though. The lack of awareness around Homefront's release is what really floored me. Hardly anyone even knew the game was coming out until the reviews started getting posted. Go back and look at the review thread. A good portion of the people in the thread were surprised to learn the game was released and that was on an enthusiast forum. I shudder to think about how few people outside of the enthusiast bubble knew the game was releasing. For that reason alone I think Homefront would bomb. Throw in all the other negative factors along with the horrendous gameplay streams around launch and you've got a recipe for a true disaster imo. I think it will make Battleborn look moderately successful in comparison and thats despite my very very low expectations for Battleborn.


Welfare said:
I think the top 3 will be

1. Uncharted
2-3 Overwatch
2-3 DOOM

I think UC4 can do at least 900k on its own, it's just that bundle is a complete X factor to me.

Overwatch will have a higher digital share than most titles, but I don't know how well DOOM will do overall this month. I feel it really can be either or for #2 and #3.
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DOOM is a tricky one but I think it will have more pull with the mainstream retail consumers so I'm going to give the nod to it for #2 but I do think OW and DOOM will be close despite OW's large digital skew.

Obliterator said:
I'll predict Uncharted above 1 million and Overwatch not telling it's real story due to an amazing digital ratio
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Yep and I am sure there will be a bunch of people jumping in to say "lol most overrated game ever" based off that very incomplete picture of sales.
 
RexNovis said:
Yep and I am sure there will be a bunch of people jumping in to say "lol most overrated game ever" based off that very incomplete picture of sales.
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Yep I'm expecting some "Overwatch bombed!" posts even though the game is tailer made for digital. It will do very well there.
 
[PS4] 310K
[XB1] 150K
[WIU] 35K

Just repost :

I'm quite convinced that Uncharted 4 in May will be sold in more copies at retail ( bundles included ) than Halo 5 sold at retail in 2 months ( Oct. 935k and Nov. IIRC 350k ) combined
 
Predictions

TOP TEN
1) Uncharted 4: A thief's end (PS4)
2) DOOM (PS4; XBO; PC)
3) OverWatch (PS4; XBO; PC)
4) Grand Theft Auto V (PS4; XBO; 360; PS3; PC)
5) The Division (PS4; XBO; PC)
6) Minecraft (360; XBO; PS4; PS3; PC)
7) Ratchet & Clank (PS4)
8) NBA 2K16 (PS4; XBO; 360; PS3; PC)
9) Call of Duty: Black Ops III (XBO; PS4; 360; PS3; PC)
10) MLB16: The show (PS4; PS3)

• Uncharted 4 will sell over 1 million [retail]
• DOOM will sell over 500,000 [retail] (PS4: 57%; XBO 43%)
• OverWatch will sell over 250,000 [retail] (PS4: 50%; XBO: 40%; PC 10%)
• Battleborne will sell over 80,000 [retail] (PS4: 54%; XBO 46%)
 
Btw, i don't wanna be a dick, but i remember when in the February NPD thread people called me crazy for said that PS4 will sell less than 300K in May... funny how now even 200K is not a given. :P
 
Obliterator said:
Yep I'm expecting some "Overwatch bombed!" posts even though the game is tailer made for digital. It will do very well there.
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I bought two copies of overwatch. One on bnet and one on PSN. Neither of my purchases will be represented by NPD. NPD kind of useless for software sales nowadays. At the very least you dont get the full picture.
 
CosmicQueso said:
My May NPD Predictions:

  • Sales of Overwatch will prove particularly entertaining, troubling, sad and, hopefully, enlightening
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Are you assuming it's going to be doing better or worse than the average GAF poster is expecting?

My assumption is better given Activision Blizzard forecasting a bigger launch than Warlords of Draenor which did 3.3 million in 24 hours (along with the astronomically large beta numbers for Overwatch), and people being mad at that because it's a multiplayer only game the same way they got really upset at Titanfall, but maybe I'm the one in the wrong here.
 
[3DS] 65K
[PS4] 210K
[WIU] 20K
[XB1] 120K

Overwatch's good retail sales will be celebrated no matter what they are because a lot of people will assume it has a very high PC ratio. A few people will declare Overdoom because retail sales aren't super amazing, no matter what milestones are announced.
 
Nirolak said:
Are you assuming it's going to be doing better or worse than the average GAF poster is expecting?
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As some other posters have mentioned, I'm just assuming that NPD is going to be more worthless than usual at gauging the sales of Overwatch, given heavy PC and digital mix. Don't think we will have a good read until next earnings.

What I'm a bit more confident on is Doom coming in lower than many expect for initial sales much like Wolf TNO did. But also like Wolf TNO I'm betting the sales over life will be stronger than launch sales would suggest.

This could be the most difficult month yet to gauge software sales health from NPD, even for big console games like UC4. Plus who knows what insanity will be announced at E3 and how people will assign May NPD results to announcements made in June lol.
 
Edson Farley said:
[XB1] 197K
[PS4] 153K
[3DS] 790K
[WIU] 24K
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eNtlu1r.jpg
 
Didn't see this, but at Gamestop there is a free game deal if you buy an Xbox One between May 22 and May 28.

718x305_Xbox_May_Free_Game.jpg
 
Back in time for predictions!

[PS4] 220K
[XB1] 150K
[3DS] 80K
[WIU] 30K

I could see UC4 at 1.2m retail (incl bundles), 1.15m NPD.

Amazon ranking in May (so far):

#17: PS4 COD III bundle
#56: XB1 GeoW bundle
#69: XB1 3 games bundle
#77: PS4 UC4 bundle LE
#95: PS4 std
 
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