Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
Jonnyram said:
To be fair Away Shuffle Dungeon is like a bad mescaline trip and Lost Odyssey is probably the best jRPG I've played since FF9 so the gulf in sales between them is not entirely undeserved.
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Media Create Sales: 01/19 - 01/25
- Thread starter PantherLotus
- Start date
To be fair Away Shuffle Dungeon is like a bad mescaline trip and Lost Odyssey is probably the best jRPG I've played since FF9 so the gulf in sales between them is not entirely undeserved.
Donny, just to toss this out, there's one problem as I see it with your idea. While I agree that top-tier talent needs to be developing new revenue streams and not just helping milk the old ones, there is a limit to how far you can outsource. Yes, the highly frontloaded series have a largely built in userbase that buys on day 1 and the game will sell to them regardless, but it's not just that particular game that needs to be monitored, but the ones after it that can be damaged.
Let's say you have Super Megahit, by Hit Studio. It could be a top-tier developer, or it could be a surprise breakout, it doesn't really matter. In any case the game does blockbuster sales, and so Hit Studio then works on a sequel. Super Megahit 2 comes out a year later to more frontloaded sales but its LTD is roughly the same, maybe slightly higher. Again the exact numbers don't matter. Hit Studio then passes the franchise off to Outside Dudes. Outside Dudes do an adequate job, but Super Megahit 3 is definitely not as good as 1 and 2. However, it still sells extremely well thanks to the positive franchise equity built up in the first two entries. The fanbase for the system has already been established, and so to an extent Super Megahit 3 is critic proof. However, it has largely lackluster word of mouth (certainly nowhere near as good as SMH 1 or 2) and even though it sells well some of the fanbase it turned off by the drop in quality. Then, when Outside Dudes release Super Megahit 4, THAT'S when sales take a bath.
There's your risk in outsourcing development. The next game is still an assured success, but you're only as good as your last game, and franchise sales are hugely influenced by the quality of the previous title as much as the current one. Having a fanbase now doesn't mean it will always exist. MGS3 took a hit on the PS2 thanks not only to the overstuffed holiday 2004 season but also I suspect some backlash against MGS2. Faith in the franchise was restored however, allowing MGS4 to sell roughly at the same level as MGS3 even on a far smaller installed base. Had MGS3 had a similar long-term reception as MGS2, I suspect MGS4 would have been in a far worse position.
Of course, keeping your top-tier developer on the same franchise isn't a guarantee of success either (see Tony Hawk, which was unceremoniously dumped for the time being, or Sonic, no further elaboration necessary), so handing it off can be a good thing. See Tomb Raider, which was taken away from the studio that created the franchise when the suck became unsalvageable but gained a new lease on life with some new blood injected. And of course Call of Duty is a poster child franchise for alternating between top-tier and outsourced development, as the games seem to alternate between Treyarch and Infinity Ward.
But you can burn your fanbase, and so assuming that they'll buy the game now and forever so you can do a subpar job with an outsourced team is not necessarily a good idea either. Outsourced or not, there definitely needs to be some very close supervision.
Let's say you have Super Megahit, by Hit Studio. It could be a top-tier developer, or it could be a surprise breakout, it doesn't really matter. In any case the game does blockbuster sales, and so Hit Studio then works on a sequel. Super Megahit 2 comes out a year later to more frontloaded sales but its LTD is roughly the same, maybe slightly higher. Again the exact numbers don't matter. Hit Studio then passes the franchise off to Outside Dudes. Outside Dudes do an adequate job, but Super Megahit 3 is definitely not as good as 1 and 2. However, it still sells extremely well thanks to the positive franchise equity built up in the first two entries. The fanbase for the system has already been established, and so to an extent Super Megahit 3 is critic proof. However, it has largely lackluster word of mouth (certainly nowhere near as good as SMH 1 or 2) and even though it sells well some of the fanbase it turned off by the drop in quality. Then, when Outside Dudes release Super Megahit 4, THAT'S when sales take a bath.
There's your risk in outsourcing development. The next game is still an assured success, but you're only as good as your last game, and franchise sales are hugely influenced by the quality of the previous title as much as the current one. Having a fanbase now doesn't mean it will always exist. MGS3 took a hit on the PS2 thanks not only to the overstuffed holiday 2004 season but also I suspect some backlash against MGS2. Faith in the franchise was restored however, allowing MGS4 to sell roughly at the same level as MGS3 even on a far smaller installed base. Had MGS3 had a similar long-term reception as MGS2, I suspect MGS4 would have been in a far worse position.
Of course, keeping your top-tier developer on the same franchise isn't a guarantee of success either (see Tony Hawk, which was unceremoniously dumped for the time being, or Sonic, no further elaboration necessary), so handing it off can be a good thing. See Tomb Raider, which was taken away from the studio that created the franchise when the suck became unsalvageable but gained a new lease on life with some new blood injected. And of course Call of Duty is a poster child franchise for alternating between top-tier and outsourced development, as the games seem to alternate between Treyarch and Infinity Ward.
But you can burn your fanbase, and so assuming that they'll buy the game now and forever so you can do a subpar job with an outsourced team is not necessarily a good idea either. Outsourced or not, there definitely needs to be some very close supervision.
Chris FOM said:
Definitely.
There also is some potential for good when a new group gets in charge of an established series in that the new group can bring in new ideas to the series. Quality control is a must, though. It's also probably a good idea to commit to delaying/not releasing the game, if the outsourced team's quality would be detrimental to the brand, as opposed to going by a rigid time release schedule.
For examples, I've been thinking of two different paths that have been taken by Nintendo with Zelda and Mario. On the one side, charlequin's idea of training new top talent plays right in to Eiji Aonuma taking over the reigns of Zelda after working with Miyamoto on it through Link to the Past and Ocarina. His first game was Majora's Mask, and, ironically, it had the worst legs of any Zelda game in Japan (69.5% first week compared to LTD, next highest was 50% for the Oracle games). I think most would agree that he's done a good job with the series, though. For the other path, you could say that Nintendo "outsourced" Super Mario Galaxy to EAD Tokyo, as they were a new team in the company with only DK:Jungle Beat under their belts, to my knowledge. They took Mario and wanted to focus more on story and include orchestral music, which Miyamoto seems to have been reluctant to do. Again, I think the general opinion is that they did a good job with the game.
Both of those paths allowed Miyamoto to spend his time on different ideas (e.g. Pikmin, Nintendogs) while still giving him the opportunity to provide oversight and quality control to the teams.
However, as you and charlequin both pointed out, maintaining quality in the outsourced/secondary team is key to making that strategy work.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
31. [PSP] Musou Orochi: Maou Sairin (KOEI)
32. [PS3] Gundam Musou 2 (Limted Edition) (Namco Bandai)
33. [NDS] Inazuma Eleven (Level 5)
34. [NDS] Monster Racer (KOEI)
35. [PS3] White Knight Chronicles (SCE)
36. [NDS] Taiko Drum Master 2: The Seven Island Adventure (Namco Bandai)
37. [NDS] Mario Kart DS (Nintendo)
38. [NDS] Phantasy Star Zero (SEGA)
39. [WII] Play on Wii: Pikmin (Nintendo)
40. [NDS] Harvest Moon: Welcome to the Wind Bazaar (Marvelous)
41. [PS3] Prince of Persia (Ubisoft)
42. [PSP] Kenka Banchou 3: Conquer the Entire Nation (Spike)
43. [PS3] Ryu ga Gotoku Kenzan! (PlayStation 3 the Best) (SEGA)
44. [WII] Super Smash Brothers Brawl (Nintendo)
45. [PS2] Yakuza 2 (Playstation 2 The Best) (SEGA)
46. [WII] Wii Play (Nintendo)
47. [PSP] Yu-Gi-Oh: Tag Force 3 (Konami)
48. [NDS] New Super Mario Bros. (Nintendo)
49. [PS3] WWE 2009 SmackDown vs Raw (THQ Japan)
50. [NDS] Tamagotchi Star School (Namco Bandai)
System Count
[NDS] - 20
[WII] - 12
[PS3] - 9
[PSP] - 6
[PS2] - 2
[360] - 1
32. [PS3] Gundam Musou 2 (Limted Edition) (Namco Bandai)
33. [NDS] Inazuma Eleven (Level 5)
34. [NDS] Monster Racer (KOEI)
35. [PS3] White Knight Chronicles (SCE)
36. [NDS] Taiko Drum Master 2: The Seven Island Adventure (Namco Bandai)
37. [NDS] Mario Kart DS (Nintendo)
38. [NDS] Phantasy Star Zero (SEGA)
39. [WII] Play on Wii: Pikmin (Nintendo)
40. [NDS] Harvest Moon: Welcome to the Wind Bazaar (Marvelous)
41. [PS3] Prince of Persia (Ubisoft)
42. [PSP] Kenka Banchou 3: Conquer the Entire Nation (Spike)
43. [PS3] Ryu ga Gotoku Kenzan! (PlayStation 3 the Best) (SEGA)
44. [WII] Super Smash Brothers Brawl (Nintendo)
45. [PS2] Yakuza 2 (Playstation 2 The Best) (SEGA)
46. [WII] Wii Play (Nintendo)
47. [PSP] Yu-Gi-Oh: Tag Force 3 (Konami)
48. [NDS] New Super Mario Bros. (Nintendo)
49. [PS3] WWE 2009 SmackDown vs Raw (THQ Japan)
50. [NDS] Tamagotchi Star School (Namco Bandai)
System Count
[NDS] - 20
[WII] - 12
[PS3] - 9
[PSP] - 6
[PS2] - 2
[360] - 1
Code:
[B][U]Hardware | This Week | Last Week | YTD | LTD [/U][/B]
NDS | 65,294 | 81,334 | 478,936 | 25,598,579
PSP | 38,280 | 42,559 | 298,422 | 11,656,586
WII | 26,770 | 32,333 | 220,311 | 7,699,212
PS3 | 17,708 | 20,690 | 127,196 | 2,749,624
360 | 7,663 | 9,576 | 47,487 | 878,027
PS2 | 5,007 | 5,760 | 30,013 | 21,429,537
--------------------------------------------------------
DSi | 51,618 | 62,525 | 1,068,052| 1,606,229
DSL | 13,676 | 18,809 | 254,047|charlequin
Banned
donny2112 said:
This is extremely reductionist. Brand name is certainly a huge, significant portion what drives a game's success, but fundamentally what keeps a franchise viable over time is delivering what the audience signed up for. If your franchise is Madden or something then any team that can deliver that same level of workmanlike competence is going to do, but for the vast majority of games the difference shows and is reflected either in sales of the current iteration or in traction of the franchise going forward.
Final Fantasy is the example that comes to mind, just because it fits so well: they did successfully transition top-level production staff pretty early on (moving from Sakaguchi, who led V, to Kitase on VI) but with the result of the new staff becoming pretty much immediately the "top talent" of the company; meanwhile, both attempts to pawn the series off on not even B teams, but maybe just A or AA teams, resulted in significantly lower-performing series entries.
Then you have bigger problems. What happens when your lead designer gets in a car accident or approves a $160 million dollar CGI animated movie while in an opiate haze?
What list of factors are you rolling into "ROI" here, exactly? How are fanbase expectations related to ROI?
I don't really see how the examples at this top end are quantitatively rather than just qualitatively distinct from the stuff that shows up in the 50-70% range. The factors that push sales towards day or week 1 overlap pretty significantly even between these two categories; in both cases, it's brand familiarity that's leading franchise entries to move the bulk of their sales earlier in the process.
shykyoichi
Member
PantherLotus said:
Given the sucess of this game, where's Inazuma Eleven 2?
PantherLotus said:
This game had some potential yet wasted. They could have allowed monsters to evolve and made racing non-platform (like mario kart ds).
And Tierkreis is out of the Top 50.
jeremy1456
Junior Member
cw_sasuke said:
Which system?
shykyoichi
Member
cw_sasuke said:
I know it's already announced but I wasn't sure when it would be released. And why isn't this game localized for either NA or EU?
shykyoichi
Member
cw_sasuke said:DS.No publisher picked it up i guess... i still think NoE will publish it at least in europe
Good for EU then.
I rarely play sports game but this one was a blast from the start to finish. Fire Tornado Wins!JoshuaJSlone
Member
That the new color came at the same time as a new price, a couple anticipated games, and the beginning of the holiday season couldn't have hurt, either.viciouskillersquirrel said:
Interesting. Since Nintendo's old titles hung around while games like MK Wii/SSBB/Animal Crossing just piled on while third parties didn't have a title like DQ Swords, I wouldn't have guessed the sales percentage had slightly tipped in favor of third party, even with fewer titles on the list.bttb said:
Based on the latest Famitsu hardware numbers...
PSP comparisons: After 215 weeks, PSP is where PS2 was at 168.3 weeks (May 19, 2003), where DS was at 96.0 weeks (October 1, 2006), and where GBA was at 145.8 weeks (January 3, 2004).
X360 comparisons: After 163 weeks, X360 is where GCN was at 15.8 weeks (December 29, 2001), where PS3 was at 26.0 weeks (May 6, 2007), and where Wii was at 4.6 weeks (December 28, 2006).
PS3 comparisons: After 115 weeks, PS3 is where PS2 was at 30.8 weeks (September 29, 2000), where PSP was at 56.9 weeks (January 7, 2006), where GCN was at 118.5 weeks (December 18, 2003), and where Wii was at 30.2 weeks (June 25, 2007).
Wii comparisons: After 112 weeks, Wii is where GBA was at 93.5 weeks (January 1, 2003), where DS was at 74.8 weeks (May 5, 2006), where PS2 was at 110.6 weeks (April 11, 2002), and where PSP was at 161.2 weeks (January 7, 2008).
DSi comparisons: After 12 weeks, DSi is where GBASP was at 29.2 weeks (September 1, 2003), and where DSL was at 11.4 weeks (May 17, 2006).
Based on the latest Media Create hardware numbers...
DS vs PSP: Weekly shares of 63.0 / 37.0 bring total shares to 68.8 / 31.2. If DS stopped selling and PSP continued at this week's rate, it would catch up in 365.9 weeks (January 31, 2016).
X360 vs PS3: Weekly shares of 30.2 / 69.8 bring total shares to 24.2 / 75.8. If PS3 stopped selling and X360 continued at this week's rate, it would catch up in 244.4 weeks (October 2, 2013).
PS3 vs Wii: Weekly shares of 39.8 / 60.2 bring total shares to 26.3 / 73.7. If Wii stopped selling and PS3 continued at this week's rate, it would catch up in 279.5 weeks (June 5, 2014).
Week over week, everything is down. DS the most, but it had the most to drop, too.
jeremy1456
Junior Member
cw_sasuke said:DS.
No publisher picked it up i guess... i still think NoE will publish it at least in europe
Aww, I thought there was one coming to Wii for some reason.
jeremy1456
Junior Member
cw_sasuke said:
Oh okay awesome. That's probably what I was thinking about - was there any evidence (besides graphics) that pointed to it being for Wii?
JoshuaJSlone
Member
We're a few weeks into the year now, so it's probably worth pulling these out.Osuwari said:
Wii is definitely down from the start of the last two years. Looks like by more than 50%, but I'm just eyeballing these right now.
DS is starting just a shade lower than last year.
PS3 is noticeably down from 2008, but doing very similarly to 2007.
PSP is noticeably down from last year, but that leaves it doing slightly better than its other years.
X360 is having its best year yet, starting out slightly better than 2007.
Wii's definitely got the worst of the overall down trend, though.
A simple approximation that's long stuck in mind is that for each of its first three calendar years (2001, 2002, 2003), GCN hit very near a million. Since X360 is still scraping towards its first million, it's still scraping toward where GCN was at the end of 2001.cvxfreak said:
Nuclear Muffin
Banned
Wow @ Tales! 70% sell through on the first day is huge! Shame the same can't be said for EOT.
frankie_baby
Member
bttb said:
wow @ eot (in a bad way) though i can see with the online action it'll probably sell through those shipments in a few weeks
Wow Tales, 135k first day?
It's going to outsell all the DS/PSP/Wii Tales games easily
PES 2009 PS2 is disappointing. I didn't expect the game to drop that much even with the delayed release. The PSP version did as expected (40k first day/70k first week)
Namco Bandai should think about releasing a main Tales on psp
It's going to outsell all the DS/PSP/Wii Tales games easily
PES 2009 PS2 is disappointing. I didn't expect the game to drop that much even with the delayed release. The PSP version did as expected (40k first day/70k first week)
Namco Bandai should think about releasing a main Tales on psp
Kurosaki Ichigo
Member
From sinobi:
- TOW RM2 is 160% of TOW RM1 first day (its already bigger than its first week too). Best first day for the seriese since 2006 TOD PS2, beating TOH (122k), TOS-R (122k), TOI (76k), TOV (71k), TODDC (72k), TOD2PSP (52k)...
- Echoes of Time sum of the different skus does 60% of Ring of Fates first day number. That 20% sell through is also horrible, there's 300k DS copies out there, either it picks up or....
- WE2009 down to just 60% of last year, comparing first days from last year edition:
PS2 27% (156k vs 42k)
PS3 88% (107k vs 94k)
PSP 128% (36k vs 46k)
Total 60% (299k vs 182k)
- TOW RM2 is 160% of TOW RM1 first day (its already bigger than its first week too). Best first day for the seriese since 2006 TOD PS2, beating TOH (122k), TOS-R (122k), TOI (76k), TOV (71k), TODDC (72k), TOD2PSP (52k)...
- Echoes of Time sum of the different skus does 60% of Ring of Fates first day number. That 20% sell through is also horrible, there's 300k DS copies out there, either it picks up or....
- WE2009 down to just 60% of last year, comparing first days from last year edition:
PS2 27% (156k vs 42k)
PS3 88% (107k vs 94k)
PSP 128% (36k vs 46k)
Total 60% (299k vs 182k)
BishopLamont
Banned
Nice tales numbers, new main game should be in order.
:lol @ FF.
:lol @ FF.
Kurosaki Ichigo
Member
I can do now an update to a PES/WE comparison I did when PS3/360 versions launched, not pretty for Konami. I'll probably update it again when the Wii version launches and when we get 2009 first half numbers (if I don't forget about it ).
PES 2008
NDS - October - 70k
PS2 - November - 673k
PS3 - November - 317k
360 - November - 18k
PSP - January - 190k
WII - February - 110k
Total 1,378,000
PES 2009
NDS - Canceled
PS3 - November - 342k
360 - November - 15k
PS2 - January - 42.5k
PSP - January - 46k
WII - February - ?
Total 445,500
).PES 2008
NDS - October - 70k
PS2 - November - 673k
PS3 - November - 317k
360 - November - 18k
PSP - January - 190k
WII - February - 110k
Total 1,378,000
PES 2009
NDS - Canceled
PS3 - November - 342k
360 - November - 15k
PS2 - January - 42.5k
PSP - January - 46k
WII - February - ?
Total 445,500
SilverLunar
Member
Horrible for FF!
I though at least 100K for the ds, I wonder how much will it sell overall??
I though at least 100K for the ds, I wonder how much will it sell overall??
Segata Sanshiro
Member
Wow, Crystal Chronicles fell flat on its ass. Impressive numbers from Tales, and too-bad-so-sad for Winning Eleven. The series has almost completely lost its prominence.
Spiegel said:
Impressive start, but let's see how things shake out before saying it will outsell them easily. IIRC, Tales Wii had a first day of 120K and barely managed to crawl past 200K by the end of the year..
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
Seriously, let me join the chorus--Namco should think about releasing a main Tales on PSP.
I mean, you can either attribute the high Tales sales to the PSP or to the fact that it's a fanservice spinoff--and I'd like to think that main games sell better than fanservice spinoffs and the franchise isn't that much of a rotting husk, so I'll attribute the high Tales sales to the PSP.
I mean, you can either attribute the high Tales sales to the PSP or to the fact that it's a fanservice spinoff--and I'd like to think that main games sell better than fanservice spinoffs and the franchise isn't that much of a rotting husk, so I'll attribute the high Tales sales to the PSP.
Pureauthor
Member
Nice Tales sales.
Also, hahahaha at Crystal Chronicles.
Also, hahahaha at Crystal Chronicles.
Magicpaint
Member
I think so as well and always thought so. I believe the PSP has the greatest proportion of the Tales fanbase from PS1/2 era. The fact that it has had numerous ports do well, along with RM1 (and now 2 which is doing even better without the holiday impact the first had) doing well, it's really baffling that Namco hasn't thought up a main installment for it.Stumpokapow said:
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
obaidr said:
well ignoring the "MS MONE¥HATZ" which I'm doubtful of, I'm saying that releasing 360, Wii, and DS lead installments and no PSP installment is silly based on this performance (and TotW RM1, really, but RM2 helps cement that there's some unique element of the PSP audience that works for Tales).
Pureauthor said:
No other way to put it. Repudiation of the DS/Wii strategy. Repudiation of the gameplay type. Repudiation of the stupid sub-brand strategy.
By all accounts is FFCCEOT is what FFCCROF should have been, and I think customers know they got fleeced by the last one and Square is trying to fleece them with this one. Good riddance. I'm not likely to buy it, and I buy EVERYTHING on the DS.
Great start for RM2, I agree with whoever said PSP should get an original title. Or at least a TODR port... seems weird to me how they obviously built up the fanbase here with a mountain of ports, then threw all the main installments on DS, 360 and (soon) Wii. :/
FFCC is laughable, it was probably way too soon in following RoF. And it looks like all Konami did by giving preference to HD WE was hurt sales overall in the end.
FFCC is laughable, it was probably way too soon in following RoF. And it looks like all Konami did by giving preference to HD WE was hurt sales overall in the end.
RpgN
Junior Member
Holly tales of the mother! I had the vague idea that it would perform well but not this well! Of course, it could be front loaded as hell. But we have a 70% sell through here, you think Namco will follow a second shipment within days?
Horrible FF EOT sales. We can all agree that this should have performed better? That is regardless of the quality. How were the promotions for it?
Horrible FF EOT sales. We can all agree that this should have performed better? That is regardless of the quality. How were the promotions for it?
Segata Sanshiro
Member
Lots of advertising for FF:CC. Tons of TV commercials, lots of in-store material, lots of stuff in Famitsu. I suppose it could have been a worse disaster, but this is pretty fucking terrible.RpgN said:
As for Tales, it's sold out in my town, so I hope Namco hurries that second shipment or they're going to get bitten in the ass by the used market.
Probably doesn't matter. PSP's doing slightly better, I bet the Wii version will perform similarly to last year too. Then again, it could pull a PowaPuro and drop itself.Link said:
The real problem though is the low PS2 sales, which the HD versions didn't make up for at all basically.
I dunno how much Afrika needed to sell to break even (or profit) but as a low-budget game, the bar probably wasn't particularly high either. And Sony has been known to greenlight niche(sales wise)projects before, as well as their sequels (DarkCloud anyone?) though admittedly, that was in different economy timesSpiegel said:
Segata Sanshiro said:
Yup. Lots of ads for it. Failure.
But WE2009 maybe even more. I am sure you have noticed that almost not a single commercial break can go by that you don't seen an Ad for the PS2 and PSP versions.
I thought they would do much, MUCH better.
I fear the Wii version, released later still is pretty doomed.
Serves Konami right for putting the most innovative version in the worst slot and trying to force HD versions on people who are still happy with their PS2s.
