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[Olaeh]

I predict Disaster: Day of Crisis will ring in at 15k first day, and will end the week at 20k.

I have a bad feeling... I predict 10k first week.

 

[jeremy1456]

I have a bad feeling... I predict 10k first week.

I made my prediction assuming that it's Nintendo published.

Otherwise...

Dizasuta!!!

 

[PantherLotus]

So, according to recent argumentation styles around here, if we all expect Disaster to sell between 15k and 20k, and it sells between 18k and 22k, IT WAS A COMPLETE SUCCESS AND EVERYBODY WAS WRONG ABOUT IT!!!!!

 

[jj984jj]

I expect about 15-20k for the first week too, but I expect the LTD to be at least 70k.

 

[Phife Dawg]

I made my prediction assuming that it's Nintendo published.

Otherwise...

Dizasuta!!!

So is Captain Rainbow, didn't help all that much.

Sales disaster is the only option for Day of Crisis imo.

 

[the thoroughbred]

Holy shit, I didn't even notics Rhythm Tengoku up their. Until I saw a few people saying it's still there. Even then I went to 20-30 to have a look. Only to not be ale to see it.

Fucking hell its at 5 with 700k+ at sales. That is amazing. This is some really good news. For a game like that to hit 700 is just, well I'm lost for words.

Did they market this heavily?

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

Holy shit, I didn't even notics Rhythm Tengoku up their. Until I saw a few people saying it's still there. Even then I went to 20-30 to have a look. Only to not be ale to see it.

Fucking hell its at 5 with 700k+ at sales. That is amazing. This is some really good news. For a game like that to hit 700 is just, well I'm lost for words.

Did they market this heavily?

Pretty standard Nintendo marketing. Some standees here and there, TV spots. After the game hit pretty big they seem to have increased the number of TV spots. The initial marketing wasn't any greater than say, Disaster's, and certainly much less than they did for Wario Shake and Pokemon Platinum.

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

I have a bad feeling... I predict 10k first week.

You know, somehow I hope it will bomb only because Nintendo should understand that their new strategy in announcing games, i.e. no news until 1 month before it ships and then in this month a moderate commercialisting, is really a bad strategyy IMHO.

 

[the thoroughbred]

So I have obviously missed out on a few things for the last few weeks. Is Disaster actually made and actually getting released? Who made it? NST? Is it any good (previews etc)?

 

[jimbo]

I use NPD-defined months to keep Japanese sales aligned with U.S. periods. As such, I don't include the very first week of the year in January, which is probably the difference you're seeing.

No, I meant his were less. I think he didn't update his YTD to include this week's numbers, but yeah I picked up on your small difference also which is no big deal since its pretty insignificant in the grand scheme of things.

PS: Your numbers were really great. I appreciate it. And if you would like a copy of them I have the entire monthly figures from launch to now, for all 3, for both regions, including monthly totals, nicely color coded and aligned for easy readibility in a wordpad document. I'd be more than happy to send you a copy of the file if you will send me your e-mail address, by way of pm of course.(They lose formatting on GAF messaging, so I have to send you the file itself)

 

[Phife Dawg]

You know, somehow I hope it will bomb only because Nintendo should understand that their new strategy in announcing games, i.e. no news until 1 month before it ships and then in this month a moderate commercialisting, is really a bad strategyy IMHO.

I doubt this would sell more if it would've been announced at an earlier date (hell, this was announced years ago) or if we would've gotten more information about it. This is clearly B-string software at best and just doesn't have an awful lot of sales potential imo.

So I have obviously missed out on a few things for the last few weeks. Is Disaster actually made and actually getting released? Who made it? NST? Is it any good (previews etc)?

Monolith made it, it's getting released next week (Japan) and there are no previews or any hands-on or whatever :lol .

 

[BishopLamont]

I doubt this would sell more if it would've been announced at an earlier date (hell, this was announced years ago) or if we would've gotten more information about it. This is clearly B-string software at best and just doesn't have an awful lot of sales potential imo.


Monolith made it, it's getting released next week (Japan) and there are no previews or any hands-on or whatever :lol .

What? Still? Man this game is the definition of "sent out to die". Monolith must really hate Nintendo at the moment.

 

[Jocchan]

So, according to recent argumentation styles around here, if we all expect Disaster to sell between 15k and 20k, and it sells between 18k and 22k, IT WAS A COMPLETE SUCCESS AND EVERYBODY WAS WRONG ABOUT IT!!!!!

Didn't you get the memo? When something new and unpredictable happens, it's just a confirmation that Sales-Agers suck as analysts.

What? Still? Man this game is the definition of "sent out to die". Monolith must really hate Nintendo at the moment.

The "marketing DIZASUTAAAA" in the official GAF thread title is there for a reason ;P

 

[jimbo]

Didn't you get the memo? When something new and unacceptable happens, it's just a confirmation that Sales-Agers suck as analysts.


The "marketing DIZASUTAAAA" in the official GAF thread title is there for a reason ;P

Fixed.

 

[Jocchan]

Fixed.

You broke it, sorry.

 

[andthebeatgoeson]

Why is this thread so huge?

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

Why is this thread so huge?

jimbo got assaulted by a bunch of burly men and fought them off with one hand tied behind his back.

 

[VerTiGo]

I wouldn't downplay Disaster at all. It seems like a wildcard and with a very good chance at being a moderate success.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

I guess you guys know about Gundam vs Gundam by now, but I just read that Namdai has already announced its arcade sequel, Gundam vs Gundam Next, and its also on System 256. I guess its a lock for PSP unless the first one does really bad.

Also, 11/27 or 27th November will be the fun day of the year:
NDS Chrono Trigger
NDS Higurashi no Nakukoru ni Kizuna: Dai-Ni-Kan - Sou
NDS Saka-Tsuku DS: Touch and Direct
NDS Tamagotchi Kira Kira Omisecchi
PSP Higurashi Daybreak Portable
PSP Kenka Banchou 3: Zenkoku Seiha
PSP Musou Orochi: Maou Sairin
PSP Patapon 2: Don-Chaka
PS3/360 World Soccer Winning Eleven 2009
WII Naruto Shippuuden Gekitou Ninja Taisen EX3
WII Rune Factory Frontier
WII Suzumiya Haruhi no Gekidou

Good god, and don't look at the context, because the previous week has The Last Remnant, Gundam vs Gundam and Prinny, and the following week has Gundam Musou 2 and Pawapuro Pocket 11...

 

[PantherLotus]

I wouldn't downplay Disaster at all. It seems like a wildcard and with a very good chance at being a moderate success.

How much is a moderate success? Why shouldn't it be downplayed? Why would it (as a "wildcard") be different than other non-advertised westernish games on Nintendo systems in Japan?

I'm all for optimism but let's hear/read some specifics.

 

[Azelover]

You know, somehow I hope it will bomb only because Nintendo should understand that their new strategy in announcing games, i.e. no news until 1 month before it ships and then in this month a moderate commercialisting, is really a bad strategyy IMHO.

It is, but only to games that will sell well for a short period. What they're interested in are games with have long legs, games that to a certain extent will sell themselves. I think probably their next move is try to change the games themselves so that all of them will follow the new model of long term sales.

 

[donny2112]

(They lose formatting on GAF messaging, so I have to send you the file itself)

[ code] tags should probably fix that. Glad the Media-Create numbers were of use.

 

[jimbo]

[ code] tags should probably fix that. Glad the Media-Create numbers were of use.

Tried it, it won't even fit. There are 11 separate columns:lol

 

[PantherLotus]

It is, but only to games that will sell well for a short period. What they're interested in are games with have long legs, games that to a certain extent will sell themselves. I think probably their next move is try to change the games themselves so that all of them will follow the new model of long term sales.

I dunno. You think they'll change the games rather than their strategy to sell them? The question is whether or not they'll continue to pursue that same mass market, which would be everyone here's worst nightmare. I think we'd all prefer they did some minimum level of public relations and advertising here and there.

 

[Jonnyram]

DSL　63000
PSP　26000
Wii　27000
PS3　8200
PS2　7300
360　14000
1.Pokemon Platinum　319000　1287000
2.Dragonball DS　88000
3.Rhythm Tengoku　40000　750000
4.Trusty Bell　30000
5.Hitman Reborn　24000
6.Quiz Magic Academy　23000　127000
7.WiiFit　23000　2586000
8.Shinobido PSP　16000
9.Hakuoki　13000
10.Mario Kart Wii　13000　1732000

 

[CitizenCope]

Holy shit at 360. 2 weeks in a row above PS3.

 

[Mr Killemgood]

Looks like PantherLotus was wrong about the X360

 

[ksamedi]

DS is doing great numbers again. Probably even above Nintendo's expectations. Rhythm Tengoku already had some good legs on the GBA so I was expecting it to hit big on the DS but I didn't expect it to do this good. This proves that one big hit software can do wonders for a platform.

 

[Soule]

/sigh I wish the consoles sales would pick up, I'm not sure how bad they are compared to last gen but it's not pretty compared to the hand helds. Also I'm happy the 360 is doing well, the predictability of these threads usually makes them boring, it's nice to see the list get shuffled around a bit.

 

[sprsk]

Holy shit at 360. 2 weeks in a row above PS3.

This isn't really an "oh shit" kind of thing. Seems like sales are dropping as expected (though I guess they are still having shipment problems.)

 

[Paracelsus]

Amazing to see 360 @ 14k and IU out of the top 10, whose last place is at 13000. Paradoxical.

Also, lawl at Sonata.

 

[Jonnyram]

11.One Piece　12000　69000
12.Band Bros DX　12000　340000
13.Infinite Undiscovery　9500　96000
14.J-League Winning Eleven　9200　150000
15.Heart Country Alice　9100 NEW
16.Taiko no Tatsujin DS 2　7900　344000
17.Inazuma　7000　95000
18.DQ5　6800　1147000
19.FEDS　6400　236000
20.PS Portable　6400　601000
21.Wii Sports　6300　3134000
22.Mario Kart DS　5500　3206000
23.MHP2G　4800　39000
24.Blue Dragon+　4500　39000
25.Afrika　4300　61000
26.NSMB　3800　5282000
27.Unreal 360　3800 NEW
28.Pokemon Dia/Pearl　3800　5579000
29.Wii Play　3500　2478000
30.Neo Angelique　3500 NEW

--.G1 Jockey PS3　3400
--.G1 Jockey PS2　3200
--.Biohazard UC Best　2400
--.Unreal Tournament PS3　1900
--.Cap vs SNK2+SF3　1900
--.Hyper SF2+Vamp.　1600
--.G1 Jockey Wii　990
--.Detective Game #1　980
--.Detective Game #2　940

 

[test_account]

Also, lawl at Sonata.

According to Sinobi's blog, the PS3 version of Eternal Sonata had a shipment that was less than 50.000. Based on this i guess that 30k in the first week isnt that bad. It might end up selling out the first shipment when its all said and done

 

[Hcoregamer00]

/sigh I wish the consoles sales would pick up, I'm not sure how bad they are compared to last gen but it's not pretty compared to the hand helds. Also I'm happy the 360 is doing well, the predictability of these threads usually makes them boring, it's nice to see the list get shuffled around a bit.

It was when the PSP was beating the DS.

Then the status quo continued with the DS reigning as king.

 

[harSon]

This isn't really an "oh shit" kind of thing. Seems like sales are dropping as expected (though I guess they are still having shipment problems.)

How so? Didn't Xbox 360 sales plummet to its original sales following other 'spikes' in the past?

 

[Paracelsus]

How so? Didn't Xbox 360 sales plummet to its original sales following other 'spikes' in the past?

Hmm...

Vesperia spike was around 24k, then dropped at 8k.

IU (?) spike was around 28k, then dropped at 14k.

I'd say the difference is minimal.

 

[gkryhewy]

According to Sinobi's blog, the PS3 version of Eternal Sonata had a shipment that was less than 50.000. Based on this i guess that 30k in the first week isnt that bad. It might end up selling out the first shipment when its all said and done

PS3 = JRPG juggernaut in waiting confirmed.

 

[Rolf NB]

Looks like PantherLotus was wrong about the X360

ORLY. PantherLotus predicted 13k, which is extremely close (hurr hurr), especially when compared to jimbo's prediction of 21k.

 

[Mr Killemgood]

Hmm...

Vesperia spike was around 24k, then dropped at 8k.

IU (?) spike was around 28k, then dropped at 14k.

I'd say the difference is minimal.

How about every other non Blue Dragon spike?

TrustySpike: 7,583 first week. 3,369 second week.
HaloSpike: 5,215 first week. 1,547 second week.
KatamariSpike: 6,161 first week. 3,030 second week.
AceCombatPriceDropSpike: 17,673 first week. 5,817 second week.

If you look at most other spikes, they drop well below 50% on their second week. And in the case of AC6 + Price Drop + Arcade week (the only closely comparable week), it had over a 67% drop. Famitsu early info points to a 50% drop amidst sellout status in some areas. That's pretty good. Obviously what matters is how long it can stay above 6-7k for, but if this is any indication, then the X360 is doing well in Japan.

 

[FrankT]

Holy shit at 360. 2 weeks in a row above PS3.

Indeed

 

[Frillen]

How is Pokemon Platinum's second week compared to the Crystal's and Emerald's?

 

[test_account]

PS3 = JRPG juggernaut in waiting confirmed.

To be fair, Eternal Sonata is not a new game though, it was released for the Xbox 360 over a year ago if i'm not mistaken The PS3 version does have some new added stuff though, but its still an old game overall. If Eternal Sonata was released for the first time last week for the PS3 and the Xbox 360, who knows how many copies it would sell And based on that the first shipment was less than 50k (atleast that what i read there on NeoGAF), i would guess that the sales expectations in Japan for the PS3 version of Eternal Sonata wasnt that big.

I'm looking forward to see how White Knight Story is going to sell Or maybe White Knight Story isnt a JRPG?

 

[Angelus Errare]

How about every other non Blue Dragon spike?

TrustySpike: 7,583 first week. 3,369 second week.
HaloSpike: 5,215 first week. 1,547 second week.
KatamariSpike: 6,161 first week. 3,030 second week.
AceCombatPriceDropSpike: 17,673 first week. 5,817 second week.

If you look at most other spikes, they drop well below 50% on their second week. And in the case of AC6 + Price Drop + Arcade week (the only closely comparable week), it had over a 67% drop. Famitsu early info points to a 50% drop amidst sellout status in some areas. That's pretty good. Obviously what matters is how long it can stay above 6-7k for, but if this is any indication, then the X360 is doing well in Japan.

I thought Trusty Bell 360 sold more than 7.5k first week?

 

[Mr Killemgood]

ORLY. PantherLotus predicted 13k, which is extremely close (hurr hurr), especially when compared to jimbo's prediction of 21k.

I was referring to his other posts before that one, where he stated the X360 would do between 0.5k-6.0k this week.

And for crystal/emerald (roughly):

Crystal: 90k (after 330k debut)
Emerald: 160k (after 750k debut)

So Platinum, if numbers hold true, are pretty good by comparison.

 

[Nolan.]

Haha ok I seriously expected 360 to fall to about 8k max and about 3-2k after last. Still 14k isn't that great but still kind of odd. This generation is just really strange rollercoaster gen for sure.

 

[Paracelsus]

I thought Trusty Bell 360 sold more than 7.5k first week?

He's talking about hardware.

 

[Mr Killemgood]

I thought Trusty Bell 360 sold more than 7.5k first week?

Hardware? No. That's what I have written down in my Media Create/X360 Google Doc:

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pTLj2bA3Ha6v8H7pvGVxdPg&oid=6&output=image

If you look at the charts for the X360, a 28>14k drop is better (drop wise) than Blue Dragon's drop. Blue Dragon H/W went from 35k>17k...This one is a little bit better, which is amazing.

 

[sprsk]

How so? Didn't Xbox 360 sales plummet to its original sales following other 'spikes' in the past?

Because this week was the week of their huge price drop ad blitz.

 

[Mr Killemgood]

Because this week was the week of their huge price drop ad blitz.

What about the same week when AC6 dropped along side of the price cut? It went from 17k to 6k (67% drop). Not to mention the fact that the 2nd week had Dynasty Warriors launching with it.

 

[sprsk]

What about the same week when AC6 dropped along side of the price cut? It went from 17k to 6k (67% drop). Not to mention the fact that the 2nd week had Dynasty Warriors launching with it.

Those didn't have anywhere near the ad campaign (or exclusive games) this one did. You could actually see 360 ads...in the middle of the day!

That and this price is a lot more accessible.