Media Create Sales: 09/08 - 09/14
- Thread starter PantherLotus
- Start date
jeremy1456
Junior Member
Ariexv said:
I think WKC will probably vastly outsell LO.
donny2112 said:
donny, I am not basing that on sales spike. I am STILL basing my prediction on numbers, and the MOST conservative numbers possible. It is based on the strictest of PESSIMISM, other than total failure.
Not only is a 1 million a long shot, it is nearly IMPOSSIBLE MATHEMATICALLY for it NOT to happen as long as Microsoft does not pull support or the world ends.
Current LTD = 671,000
1 million - 671,000 = 329,000
At 3k per week, it would take 2.1 years for it to happen from now, NOT considering any spikes, or holiday months.
Now let's be a bit more realistic.
Does it have a good chance of doing a minimum of 100k, from now until the end of the year? YES.
So, 329,000 - 100,000 = 229,000.
Does it have a good chance of doing 100k in 2009 between Nov + Dec? Yes.
So that leaves 129,000 of regular monthly sales or 43 weeks at 3k per week.
Will the 360 be around in Japan one year from now? YES.
And the reality of it is it WILL have weeks higher than 3k, it will PROBABLY do more than 100k, so the chances of it reaching 1 million are not only very likely, but it will happen in LESS than one year because it probably won't need the holiday months of 2009.
My prediction is not based on optimism, it's based on pesimism.
jeremy1456
Junior Member
Ariexv said:
I thought we were only talking about Japan.
EDIT: You know, given that we were in a Japanese sales thread, specifically discussing Japanese sales.
On a worldwide scale I would expect the numbers to be pretty close.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
Azelover
Titanic was called the Ship of Dreams, and it was. It really was.
Jtyettis said:
Sure, bad news for Sony, good news for Nintendo.
It's interesting that some people picked on Wii's lead over the Xbox 360, since realistically Nintendo can only benefit from a stronger 360. So long as it's the Xbox 360 gaining the momentum and not the PS3. The more even this secondary battle becomes the most successful Nintendo's market disruption will be.
Phife Dawg
Member
DB looks to be on the way to 60k first week sales, that would put it right next to the card battle RPG. Do we have sell-through percentages?Kurosaki Ichigo said:
Way of the Samurai is a port of the old game, right? Wonder if this is a sign of things to come for WotS 3. The series declined from 1 to 2 and doesn't seem to garner a lot of interest anymore. Coupled with a release on PS3 I can smell a disappointment.
AnimeTheme
Member
I hope NBGI (and other companies) realize that PS3 users are not stupid enough to be fed with years-old ports and still be happy. You are screwing youself up if you continue to release J titles for only XB360, in Japan.
You DON'T realize that this is MC thread?
Ariexv said:
You DON'T realize that this is MC thread?
Version 3.0
Member
jimbo said:
Fair enough.
Kurosaki Ichigo
Member
No percentages but sinobi says DB is supposed to be a long seller and eventually could crawl up to 300k. Nothing more about Way of Samurai.Phife Dawg said:
I don't know the series, but I also doubt the 3rd one is going to sell anywhere near the first two. Over 200k territory on PS3 is just for heavy hitters until now.
(PS2, 2002) Way of Samurai - 242,891
(PS2, 2003) Way of Samurai The Best! - 61,097
(PS2, 2003) Way of Samurai 2 - 214,801
Does someone here if Samurai Western is also part of the series? Its from Spike too but I'm not sure if its a spin-off or a totally different game
(PS2, 2005) Samurai Western - 77,258
Not counting that one, its been long with no presence from the series. The PSP port was barely announced alongside WotS3, its pretty cheap too (3800Y), it is probably expected to just catch some buzz for the PS3 new game and maybe get some new people into the series. It almost feels like a The Best! re-release...
Phife Dawg
Member
Which was greenlighted to also contain general sales discussion. Just saying.AnimeTheme said:
Thanks for posting the info.Kurosaki Ichigo said:
About the WotS port: I thought so too, that's why I don't think we can expect anything sales wise if the reception is so indifferent towards what used to be a quite popular game.
Never heard of Samurai Western, after looking it up it seems to be a purely action-focused spin-off.
Captain Smoker
Member
New releases for the next week:
Segata Sanshiro
Member
oh sweet fancy moses jesus holy and fuck
the Soldier collection is out next week?
the Soldier collection is out next week?
test_account
XP-39C²
Is there any special reason why the Wii games are released on Wedensday instead of Thursday next week?
jimbo said:
I thought something similar (about the baseline 360 weekly sales) after Blue Dragon, but the 360 still fell back to 1-2K weeks. Jonnyram's point is the biggest one, I feel. Games or the promise of games have caused this baseline increase, and as long as those keep coming, the baseline is likely to stay up. It's not a guarantee, though, and the precedence of the post Blue Dragon baseline drop gives pause.
As to specifics, I do not believe that 100K across Nov + Dec 2009 is a probability. Possibility, yes, but it only sold 70K in Nov+Dec 2007. I would say 100K+ is probable for the rest of this year, though.
slaughterking
Member
Want. :0
Regulus Tera
Romanes Eunt Domus
DISAZUTAAAA!!!
I hope this one does good.
Mr Killemgood
Member
donny2112 said:
You do realize that Blue Dragon launched in 2006, not 2007. And your citing numbers for 2007, not 2006.
Nov + Dec 2007 = Ace Combat 6, DW5, Price Drop & LO = 77,413 H/W Units
Nov + Dec 2006 = Blue Dragon, Core, DOAX2, Culdcept Saga = 110,466 H/W Units
Defuser said:
What crevasse of your imagination did you pull that from? ES and DR aren't that far from each other on Game Rankings. :lol Like I said, (and your response is proof of it) this whole 1 year+ late port isn't meant to sell much business will flip on its head as soon as people see an similar situation on another console perform the exact same way. Its supposedly ok for ES to not do well as a super later port, but when CTYD bombs theres going to be a completely reversed point of view on how well an old game getting ported should perform from the same people here defending this.
Fact is, ports that are this damn late shouldn't ever be expected to perform on or above this level. They aren't going to get the advertising push the first release did, and they game has already been out, played, and available on the used market forever. Just because one game that was arguably the best game of last gen (RE:4) managed to do over a million doesn't make that situation the norm. Its a goddamn anomaly.
Days like these...
Have a Blessed Day
Are you predicting Dead Rising will bomb in Japan or worldwide? If its the former I agree if its the later I disagree. I think it will do well here in the states.
Pureauthor
Member
Case said:
Define 'bomb'.
(Guess how much YU and Riviera sold. C'mon, guess.)
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
I think Disaster will be a disaster. 20k?
Mithos Yggdrasill
Banned
PantherLotus said:
First day? No. First Week? Maybe.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
Mithos Yggdrasill said:
obviously.
donny2112 said:
Of course, it's always about the games. And no it's not a guarantee, I agree, but the probability of it happening is greater than it NOT happening. Therefore the estimated prediction is valid.
Also, in the grand scheme of things:
2006 YTD = 175,900 or 3,382 per week
2007 YTD = 252,400 or 4,852 per week (43% increase)
2008 YTD = 154,032 or 4,220 per week.(now after factoring in the 'upcoming '08 holidays, this number will be much higher than that, and should be a lot higher than 07 too).
Now pay attention to that 43% increase. That can be mostly attributed to left over demand of BD and Ace Combat 6.
Using that same percentage for 2008, you get 6,938 per week for 2008, meaning it would have to sell another 206, 744 by the end of the year, or average 13,782 for that YoY percentage increase to remain true. My prediction earlier in the thread for the remaining of the year was 12k per week.(Once again I was being conservative compared to what data shows us)
For 08, earlier in the thread I only used a 30% increase prediction for early next year based only on a 5k expected weekly average from before ToV. If you plug in 43% instead of 30%......
On 5,000 x 1.43 = 7,150 per week for next year.
Now if you plug it on that 6,938 expected weekly average for 2008 =
6,938 x 1.43 = 9.921.34 per week based on historical increase percentage
Now do I believe ToV, IU, TLR, SO4 price drop and whatever else comes out can increase sales more than BD and AC6? Absolutely. Especially when considering neither BD nor AC6 have stopped being a selling point for the console. So I believe I was pretty safe with my 30% increase from earlier.
So what is interesting is even if you look at things the historical way you come out to more or less the same thing I predicted earlier using more recent numbers.
Also,
Oct - Dec 06 = 118,900
Oct - Dec 07 = 100,100
I think Oct -Dec 08, will blow all the other ones out of the water(Remember BD also went up against the launches of PS3 and Wii), so that 100k from earlier in the thread that I was using, was extremely conservative, plus there are still 2 more weeks to go in September to add to that.
Edit: I just noticed my YTD for 08 and Panther's in the OP are different. I will be checking on that(I am using the numbers you gave me donny, and I have it at 154,032 for the year).
jimbo... why are you arguing so much?
360 is going to finish in a distant third place and PS3 is going to finish in a distant second place. End of the story
And with all the extra japanese support the 360 has got it's not difficult to see why it's selling better than the Xbox. Of course if you're selling like shit the improvements are more noticeable, but in the end you're still selling like shit.
360 is going to finish in a distant third place and PS3 is going to finish in a distant second place. End of the story
And with all the extra japanese support the 360 has got it's not difficult to see why it's selling better than the Xbox. Of course if you're selling like shit the improvements are more noticeable, but in the end you're still selling like shit.
Well I've seen a few cases with games that never or rarely left Japan before, to get localized when they appeared on handhelds. PM is a game that could work very well with NDS audience worldwide.icecream said:
Most of UBIs crapware is essentially copying the exact same concept, aside for well, having actual gameplay. And IIRC since 2, the supposed controversial elements were gone from the series as well.
Also - PSP game getting a bundle sounds like they are actually promoting this one which seems... unusual.
Btw, I know it has no impact to Western localization, but PM series does have full localizations to Korean(and maybe some other countries).
AdventureRacing
Member
Spiegel said:
It's fun to discuss things? If everyone used logic like this media create threads wouldn't get past page 1.
PM games have appeared on handhelds before. Princess Maker 4 in particular was on the PSP years before they made this DS version.Fafalada said:
A game like PM is a more complex because it's aiming for a different crowd than those Ubisoft games you are referring to. The translation process wouldn't be simple either.
It's not. In this case 'Pack' is just another way to say 'LE with artbook.'
JoshuaJSlone
Member
I don't have a prediction, but that would be a disaster. Worse than Baten Kaitos Origins (44K) or DS Xenosaga 1&2 (22K).PantherLotus said:
EDIT:
jeremy1456
Junior Member
I predict Disaster: Day of Crisis will ring in at 15k first day, and will end the week at 20k.
I dunno, text in "Z" games I've seen seemed about the same level as that unreleased PM2 localization. Complexity may be different, but then there were others pretty complex simulation games that sell on DS.icecream said:
My bad then. I forgot about PSP PM4 as well. Ah well
