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[Galactic Fork]

Mario Galaxy is sooo close to a million. Can it make it?

Probably, I'll say most likely mid march.

And FFIV... hmm... will it too have the legs of Mario?

Nah, it'll be lucky to reach 650k. 700k if it is graced by the luck of the gods. It'll probably drop to the 20s and 30s of the charts in 2 or 3 weeks and then slip slowly to oblivion. I think it'll crawl along like FFIII, but it didn't have as good a running start.

I'm pretty excited about DQIV, it should pass the PS1 remake soon. Probably next week. DQV for the ps2 had 1.6 million. I'm not holding my breath on the DS version passing that, but I'm sure it'll do well. It could be too soon after IV to release it though. Would be a bad sign if V sells worse than IV.

 

[Michan]

I'd like to note that Cheesemeister's formatting is important for those who record the data in their own spreadsheets/databases for later reference.

I used to record the data by hand, as each week there was inconsistent formatting on GAF and titles/etc weren't always accurate. Also, translating directly from M-C took a lot of time. However, with the consistent weekly formatting, I can run my program through his post and spend just a small amount of time making adjustments to match my records.

Thanks for the great year, Cheesemeister. Here's to many more!

 

[norinrad21]

LOL

1 week ban bet PS3 version at least sells double the 360 version 1st week in Japan?

Thats just silly, why should i put my account on the line?. you guys are behaving as if the 360 version doesn't stand a chance of outselling DMC4 on the PS3.

There's a huge possibility the Japanese do not want to install it either and would choose the 360 version instead.

 

[ethelred]

you guys are behaving as if the 360 version doesn't stand a chance of outselling DMC4 on the PS3.

That's because it doesn't.

 

[Chumly]

Thats just silly, why should i put my account on the line?. you guys are behaving as if the 360 version doesn't stand a chance of outselling DMC4 on the PS3.

There's a huge possibility the Japanese do not want to install it either and would choose the 360 version instead.

no

 

[Lightning]

you guys are behaving as if the 360 version doesn't stand a chance of outselling DMC4 on the PS3.

That's because it doesn't.

And the bet was to test your confidence in your own statements and clearly you don't have any and in this case rightfully so.

 

[Rolf NB]

Thats just silly, why should i put my account on the line?

That's just one of many ways to discourage yourself from stating predictions that you yourself already know won't be happening.

 

[CoolS]

I foresee a SSBB debacle. I hope I'm wrong but I just can see it happening the game 'only' selling 300k or so in it's first week and people going 'Nintendo is teh casual. SBBB won't sell in Japan' etc again.

 

[Loudninja]

Thats just silly, why should i put my account on the line?. you guys are behaving as if the 360 version doesn't stand a chance of outselling DMC4 on the PS3.

There's a huge possibility the Japanese do not want to install it either and would choose the 360 version instead.

Dude what the hell? It will not happen.

 

[The Innocent X]

360 will do between a half and a quarter of PS3 for DMC. Anything else is wishful thinking.

 

[Rolf NB]

I foresee a SSBB debacle. I hope I'm wrong but I just can see it happening the game 'only' selling 300k or so in it's first week and people going 'Nintendo is teh casual. SBBB won't sell in Japan' etc again.

Pretty much what I am thinking. But I also prophesize exceptional legs for the remainder of the year due to a couple of factors.
We can't really tell how large the core gamer proportion of the current Wii base is, and how fast the conversion from Wii Fit/Wii Sports purchaser to somebody who'd play Smash Bros can happen, but I think it's safe to say that whenever a core gamer purchases a Wii, Brawl is a prime candidate for the first game they will want to go along with it (with the other major choice being Super Mario Galaxy). Like all titles with a strong multiplayer component, Brawl's sales should also benefit from a lowered circulation of used copies.

I expect it to keep trucking along to eventually reach between a million and 1.5 million copies sold by the end of the year, in Japan. 300~400k first week.

 

[Luckyman]

Call of Duty has legs in Japan? wtf..

 

[apujanata]

Thats just silly, why should i put my account on the line?. you guys are behaving as if the 360 version doesn't stand a chance of outselling DMC4 on the PS3.

There's a huge possibility the Japanese do not want to install it either and would choose the 360 version instead.

Because you want to prove that you are really a "prophet", and you have come from the future ?
Because you are willing to sacrifice yourself in the altar of "believe" ?
Because you are 200% confident of your statement ?

 

[Loudninja]

Call of Duty has legs in Japan? wtf..

Yeah, it I wonder what the numbers are?

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Did you guys notice MC has FFIV at TWICE the Famitsu number for the week? But actually, both end up with a 559k LTD.

Mario Strikers was severely overshipped, so its going to sell out those copies even if its at 100Y. When you see it at 150-200k? (I don't remember the shipment) its not because it got good word of mouth or legs or something good, its because they shipped that amount and retailers had to swallow it. Pretty much like Tales of the Tempest, I still remember some people saying how good it did because it went up to sell 200k. Problem is they sold 70k and then 130k sitting there had to be sold. I'm sure you can still buy new units at 100Y, after all Namco shipped 300k.

 

[Terrell]

SSBB- 400k
DMC4- 150k Ps3
DMC4- 75k 360
Disgaea- 7

I don't care if this was mis-typed, you're my new hero. I've said it to many slings and arrows already (was even willing to bet a ban on it at one point) that Disgaea 3 wouldn't make it to the Top 30 on launch week, and the only way it could occur is if for some miraculous reason, a large portion of the 100K install base Disgaea 2 managed at the end of the 20-million-strong PS2 lifespan somehow jumped on a PS3 for this game when they're likely still quite content with their PS2s and its continued niche-market content.

 

[test_account]

There's a huge possibility the Japanese do not want to install it either and would choose the 360 version instead.

I think some might favor the 360 version because of no install, but i dont think the majority of people (atleast no in japan) will get the 360 version just because of this. The game is out in about a week, so we'll have the 1st week data in about 2 weeks. Going to be interesting to see it no matter how the outcome will be

 

[cvxfreak]

CoolTrick of all people gets it first. His thread won by 10 minutes too... but his vengeance came back to haunt him. I would guess it was only closed because it'd be a cold day in hell before CoolTrick would repost the information with Cheese's format without mod intervention. :lol :lol

Glad to see Cheese can get his format done quickly without a parser too. Impressive work!

 

[Lobster]

LOL

1 week ban bet PS3 version at least sells double the 360 version 1st week in Japan?

I'll take the bet.

Basically-

(just an example)

360 has do 80,001 if Ps3 version does 160,000.

K.

Im in.

 

[Durante]

I've said it to many slings and arrows already (was even willing to bet a ban on it at one point) that Disgaea 3 wouldn't make it to the Top 30 on launch week

I'm still willing to take you up on that bet.

 

[ksamedi]

I think DMC4 will do worse than 3 on PS3 but will do better than 3 combined. There is a lot against DMC4 doing good numbers in Japan, DMC2 may still haunt it and the series is getting old.

 

[Luckyman]

I'll take the bet.

Basically-

(just an example)

360 has do 80,001 if Ps3 version does 160,000.

K.

Im in.

Why would this be any different than previous multiplatfrom releases. Enjoy your ban.. 360 version is going to get hammered.

 

[Stop It]

I'm starting to sound like a broken record here, but M&S Olyimpics (Wii) is still selling? damnit how is this possible, I don't even want to call the DS versions sales because of this, it may be frontloaded and sell 200k lifetime, or it may gain stupid legs like the Wii version and sell a million, it's madness.

Apart from that, Wii Fit.....Christ this thing isn't stopping is it? I said it last week and I'll say it again, Wii Fit = Wii Sports for 2008, and thats assuming Wii Sports is going to fade away, which it wont either, SMG Struggling on, that next 160k is going to be so painful, but it must get there surely, both Laytons Still strongly charting too, good for Level 5.

 

[Warren Ellis]

If you're including the G expansion, perhaps.

If you guys think this week is bad for Sony, then watch when DMC4/Disgaea 3 get massacred by Smash Bros. in a couple of weeks

yeah, it's sad. Do you remember when sony was strong and dmc and disgaea always outselled smash bros. .. oh wait

 

[Lobster]

Why would this be any different than previous multiplatfrom releases. Enjoy your ban.. 360 version is going to get hammered.

Whatever, its a week ban and who knows what might happen?

Do I contact a mod about the bet?

 

[AnimeTheme]

I don't care if this was mis-typed, you're my new hero. I've said it to many slings and arrows already (was even willing to bet a ban on it at one point) that Disgaea 3 wouldn't make it to the Top 30 on launch week, and the only way it could occur is if for some miraculous reason, a large portion of the 100K install base Disgaea 2 managed at the end of the 20-million-strong PS2 lifespan somehow jumped on a PS3 for this game when they're likely still quite content with their PS2s and its continued niche-market content.

It will probably just need 10k to enter top 30 of that week. You seriously think Disgaea 3 can't do that?

 

[typhonsentra]

I'm still willing to take you up on that bet.

Me too. I don't think I've ever seen such an easy win before.

 

[Lobster]

He said he was once willing.

 

[Sule]

Before we see other games or non-games use the balance board it has to have a large enough install base. What would be this magical number? It's over 1 million now and will probably continue to sell to new Wii owners just like Wii sports. Will we see third party games that use the balance board before the end of the year? Do developers already have the possibility to design a game using the balance board?

 

[ksamedi]

Before we see other games or non-games use the balance board it has to have a large enough install base. What would be this magical number? It's over 1 million now and will probably continue to sell to new Wii owners just like Wii sports. Will we see third party games that use the balance board before the end of the year? Do developers already have the possibility to design a game using the balance board?

I think those games could come in bundled (and also not bundled) with a balance board if it really uses it.

 

[evilromero]

Didn't Sega project Sonic and Mario at 4 million copies? Did this include the DS and Wii versions together? It is selling very strongly so I wouldn't be surprised to see it reach that goal worldwide.

 

[kurosawa]

Before we see other games or non-games use the balance board it has to have a large enough install base. What would be this magical number? It's over 1 million now and will probably continue to sell to new Wii owners just like Wii sports. Will we see third party games that use the balance board before the end of the year? Do developers already have the possibility to design a game using the balance board?

Namco's Family Sky comes out Jan 31 and supports the balance board.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Namco's Family Sky comes out Jan 31 and supports the balance board.

Inexplicably, the rest of their Family Whatever products do NOT support the balance board and instead have a DDR-style mat. HURRRRRRR. Namco is so pitiful.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

Namco's Family Sky comes out Jan 31 and supports the balance board.

...and Boogie II is now rumoured to be in development and to be using the balance board.

 

[Magicpaint]

Didn't Sega project Sonic and Mario at 4 million copies? Did this include the DS and Wii versions together?

Yes and yes.

 

[ksamedi]

...and Boogie II is now rumoured to be in development and to be using the balance board.

Also a skateboarding game

 

[Lobster]

Didn't Sega project Sonic and Mario at 4 million copies? Did this include the DS and Wii versions together? It is selling very strongly so I wouldn't be surprised to see it reach that goal worldwide.

Combined.

Everybody laughed.

There were only a few believers. Im glad I believed.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Didn't Sega project Sonic and Mario at 4 million copies? Did this include the DS and Wii versions together? It is selling very strongly so I wouldn't be surprised to see it reach that goal worldwide.

They projected 4 million total lifetime worldwide sales between the two SKUs.

Here's what we have so far:
Wii
- Lead SKU. Thus, I assume a 2 million projection for this SKU; since it is the lead SKU, but it is selling to one-third the install base.
- 948,000 US sales.
- 488,000 JPN sales.
- Doing VERY well in the European charts.

Assuming we're skeptical of European performance (as I personally am), we can split the difference between US and JPN sales right now. I do this because it's roughly in line with the hardware distribution breakdown, but it's possible that it could be higher or lower. That gives us another 718,000 Euro/other units.

So, 718,000+948,000+488,000 = 2,154,000. In other words, it's highly likely that Mario & Sonic Wii has outsold the projected lifetime sales. This is even without the presumable advertising bump the game will get during the actual Olympics.

My guess is that if the DS version does not fail radically compared to projections, Mario & Sonic will actually exceed Sega's ridiculous projection.

 

[jarrod]

SSBB: 320k
FamiSki: 25k

Disgaea 3: 40k
AC PS3: 10k

TOD DC: 75k

DMC4 PS3: 120k
DMC4 360: 30k

Sega Rally PS3: 20k
Sega Rally 360: 10k
Sega Rally PSP: 10k

 

[giggas]

I'm not much of a Call of Duty player, but I'm really happy to see it doing well in Japan. I guess I'm just really tired of seeing highly praised western games bomb over there. It probably helps that the setting isn't WW2 either.

As always, nice to see Galaxy hanging in there, it deserves it.

You know, I was also in the mindset that SSBB isn't going to do the numbers over there that everyone thinks it's going to (at first anyway). I think it's going to be very similar to how Galaxy sold.

 

[ksamedi]

SSBB: 320k
FamiSki: 25k

Disgaea 3: 40k
AC PS3: 10k

TOD DC: 75k

DMC4 PS3: 120k
DMC4 360: 30k

Sega Rally PS3: 20k
Sega Rally 360: 10k
Sega Rally PSP: 10k

I really thought these were first day numbers, was about to post about it even

 

[Lobster]

edit:they're predictions..

:lol

 

[Pureauthor]

Nothing to see here. Move along.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

Uh, considering SSBB isn't out for another week, aren't those numbers just Jarrod's predictions?

 

[Stumpokapow]

SSBB: 320k
FamiSki: 25k

Disgaea 3: 40k
AC PS3: 10k

TOD DC: 75k

DMC4 PS3: 120k
DMC4 360: 30k

Sega Rally PS3: 20k
Sega Rally 360: 10k
Sega Rally PSP: 10k

What are these numbers? If they're shipment numbers, they're pretty categorically pathetic. They can't be first day sales, because half those games aren't out yet. If they're just predictions, it's pretty strange that you'd include Sega Rally Revo PSP in your predictions.

 

[Lobster]

Uh, considering SSBB isn't out for another week, aren't those numbers just Jarrod's predictions?

:lol

I was thinking this..but everyone started treating them as first day.

 

[jarrod]

Um... they're predictions.

Sorry guys. :lol

 

[Cheesemeister]

Yeah, clearly label that stuff.

 

[Stumpokapow]

So, Nintendo is including a bonus soundtrack CD with select copies of the first shipment of Soma Bringer. I understand it's with 30% of the first shipment, but I have no idea how many units they're shipping--I'm not even sure if orders are settled at this point, given that there's still more than a month until the launch.

Since Soma Bringer is scored by Mitsuda (supposedly; I don't know if he's just doing one track and passing the rest to a no-name, or if he's actually scoring the full thing), this should be a big draw to encourage week-one purchases of SB.

Plus, the hype amongst the Japanese press and retailers is that this game is the closest thing to Secret of Mana since Seiken Densetsu 3. Three-player co-op, a mix between beat-em-up and RPG mechanics, colorful visual style. I suspect there'll be a lot of retailer-level buzz about this.

If I were a betting man, I'd revise Soma Bringer up from a B-level title (80k-200k; ranging from Project Hacker up to say Hotel Dusk / Ouendan 2) to a low A-level title (250k-500k; ranging from Picross up to say Mario Hoops)

If we compare with other RPGs, on the DS, we've got--rounding up:
Diamond / Pearl (5.4 mln), DQM: J (1.5 mln), Pokemon MD 2 (1.3 mln), DQIV (1.2 mln), Final Fantasy III (1 mln), Pokemon MD (800k), Pokemon Ranger (650k), Mega Man Star Force Triple-Sku Edition (600k), Final Fantasy IV (560k), Revenant Wings (525k), Mario and Luigi (425k)... I suspect that Soma Bringer will do somewhere around here, beating Crystal Chronicles, Tactics A2, Children of Mana, Tales of Innocence, Tales of the Tempest, Shiren DS, It's a Wonderful World, and others.

 

[Pureauthor]

Luminous Arc's music was rather nice, if a bit forgettable aside from a couple standout tracks. Soma Bringer might be rather nice, too.

Also, why does Japan get all the cool bonuses?