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Media Create Sales 1/14 - 1/20 2008
- Thread starter Cheesemeister
- Start date
charlequin
Banned
Terrell said:
You're crazy on the Top 30 thing (the bottom of the Top 30 will probably be like 10,000 copies that week) but I think there's a very good chance that most of Disgaea's fanbase hasn't migrated to PS3, yes.
ksamedi said:
I don't see much to suggest this interpretation. Nobody's going to judge this game on DMC2 when DMC3 had a completely different reception, and generally speaking DMC4 has been more intensely hyped than previous releases in the series.
norinrad21 said:
It has a chance the same way both DMC4 versions combined have a chance of outselling Smash Bros. :lol
Stumpokapow said:
For serious? I'm expecting Soma Bringer to sink like fucking Tuvalu.
charlequin said:
I just think its going to be a harder sell to those who didn't like 2 and never bought 3. You are right in that it could do better numbers than 3 but on the other hand it will have to do it trough word of mouth. Even then, it still has the barrier of the PS3 and 360's relative small userbases to overcome. I doubt it will do anything close to DMC 2.
Yeah, Monolith's stink is like one step away from Mistwalker... their involvement's like the kiss of death for sales. Xenosaga sank, Baten Kaitos tanked... hell, even NxC did pretty terribly.
I'd be shocked if Soma Bringer cracks 200k, nevermind more than that. It's gonna be ASH all over again imo.
I'd be shocked if Soma Bringer cracks 200k, nevermind more than that. It's gonna be ASH all over again imo.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
ksamedi said:
I do believe the possibility is there for that sort of thing, but here's where I'd differ:
- 1) ASH had an extended dev cycle and was pushed out the door with no promotion. Soma Bringer has a normal dev cycle. The former strikes me as Nintendo trying to confirm something they knew would not do well. The latter strikes me as Nintendo being Nintendo.
- 2) Retailer buzz on ASH was poor. Retailer buzz on SB is quite good. This is going to lead to better and more prominent placement in stores.
- 3) ASH is not particularly accessible as a game design. If you want to call it hardcore, or even just blame the genre, I don't mind. SB is an ARPG designed to be even more accessible than, say, Children of Mana.
- 4) ASH was released in October. During that same month, Nintendo released two other DS games. Pokemon MD2 was still high on the charts from the month before. The initial shipment was pathetic, and that number was borne out by poor sales. Nintendo knew it was going to bomb. Soma Bringer is Nintendo's only release for February. Although it's end of February, there are no releases other than Metroid Prime 3 scheduled for March.
Furthermore, ASH was released the week of the hardware sales collapse. The Wii and DS were in the shitter. Tecmo's detective game was #1 for that week, and DBZ BT3 #2. The next week, fucking Seaman 2 was #1. Josh or donny might confirm, but I'm pretty sure that +-2 week period was the worst time of the year.
charlequin said:
In addition to what I just wrote to the Baron just then, I think Soma Bringer is step one of Nintendo's plan for Monolithsoft. Nintendo has ALWAYS preferred partnerships (Mario Hoops, Mario Party, Excite Truck, ASH, and on and on), jointly-funded third-parties (Brownie Brown, the whole fucking Marigul umbrella of companies, etc). Buying Monolithsoft is a big deal.
The only real explanation for buying a team that historically has flopped sales-wise every single title they've ever released is a faith in the quality of their titles and the ability of them, under your guidance, to realize profit.
I sincerely believe that Nintendo will follow through and promote it properly.
The simple fact that Soma Bringer is an action-RPG is making me want to try it. As much as I adore SRPGs and the constant following of Mistwalker's steps to success, I just can't bring myself to sit through ASH for some reason.Stumpokapow said:
I'd really hope for Monolith Soft to become something under Nintendo's wing. For years I have pined for a Nintendo RPG series and the closest I've come from that is Fire Emblem and Golden Sun. Having Monolith there and available is making me want to hug it tight and never let go but I'm afraid of being burnt.
charlequin
Banned
ksamedi said:
I don't think the people who bought 2 and not 3 are relevant at this stage. The PS3 is a hardcore system owned by hardcore gamers; it's quite likely that the current Japanese PS3 owners who are potentially interested in DMC4 are all from the more hardcore end of the spectrum who did purchase DMC3, rather than the more casual side who bought DMC2 and got burned. The most important factors now are the last game's reception (extremely positive) and the hype (which I perceive to be relatively strong.)
I'm not predicting it's going to outsell 3 in raw units. I'm just predicting it'll do well relative to the tiny HD install bases -- hitting something in the 200-250k range lifetime.
Stumpokapow said:
I can believe that, I just don't really have much faith that Nintendo's plan for Monolithsoft is remotely coherent or well thought-out. :lol If they were playing to their strengths, I'd expect to know about a real Wii RPG from them instead of the somewhat WTF projects they're announced to be working on so far.
DeaconKnowledge
Member
With Nintendo backing Monolithsoft, doesn't it stand to reason that Nintendo would back them via marketing, and game development? The Monolithsoft that makes/sells Soma Bringer may not be the Monolith that saw Baten Kaitos 1 and 2 bomb.
Pureauthor
Member
charlequin said:
Wait, we know Soma Bringer... what other 'wtf' projects are there?
1) How far are we from Some Bringer's release?
2) How much marketing for the game exists?
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
Pureauthor said:
Disaster: Day of Crisis. They're also working on a Super Robot Wars game but I suspect that's more of a fulfillment of a previous contract than it is a new project.
End of February.
Occasional Famitsu pages, trailer at Nintendo World conference last fall, lynchpin title at the most recent retailers conference. And now this promotion. Sinobi informs me that 30% of all first-run copies of the game have the soundtrack CD, which should amount to a bare minimum 30,000 copies of the soundtrack. I also get the impression based on my weak translating-fu and google translation that the CD is a full CD bonus rather than a sampler, which is awesome if true.
DeaconKnowledge
Member
Stumpokapow said:
Plenty of time for the Nintendo Marketing machine to kick in.
Stumpokapow said:
So they're already advertising it.
How does stack up to previous advertising efforts? I know Nintendo backed up Baten Kaitos Origins, but did they really push the title in Japan?
Pureauthor
Member
Stumpokapow said:
When was the bolded part, again?
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
DeaconKnowledge said:
I don't think they backed it up too heavily, but I'm not sure that's a good point of comparison. Namco had published BK1 and so I'm pretty sure Nintendo provided pretty minimal support for BKO. I think, too, it's important to distinguish between third-party games that Nintendo is publishing, third-party games that Nintendo commissioned, third-party games that are part of Nintendo IP, and second-party games. The further you go in that list, the ore support you're going to get, right?
Pureauthor said:
A few weeks ago there was a small retailers conference which AFAIK focused on Brawl (including the one week delay) and Soma Bringer. Jonnyram reported to GAF that there was very positive retailer reaction, and since then there's been a few reports in various sources which I can't find right now--on my laptop away from home, no bookmarks saved--that the game is receiving good buz from retailers.
Dengeki has a data sheet for the game here which prominently mentions the 3-player co-op. Spencer Yip from Siliconera was the only English-language journalist that made the SoM comparison, but it's pretty immediately obvious if you look at the screen and read the game's description. IIRC at least one japanese source made the comparison as well.
charlequin
Banned
DeaconKnowledge said:
I... I'll believe it when I see it? You're right that it stands to reason, but... it would've stood to reason to save BKO for Wii and try to sell more than 47 copies of it too. Stumpokapow seems pretty convinced that the retailers are behind the game, though, so I could be wrong.
Pureauthor said:
Infinite Frontier Super Robot Wars OG Saga and Disaster: Day of Crisis. Soma Bringer is the least WTF-y of them, I think. :lol
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
charlequin said:
I might well be wrong. I wouldn't stake whatever eReputation I have on this prediction, but I really do see positive things here; good retailer buzz, being released with no competition internally and as far as I know little competition elsewhere, accessible gameplay style that is being specifically promoted as such, a pre-order bonus that people can dig, standard price so no gouging.
On the other hand, we have several unknown factors:
- MonolithSoft kiss of death
- Relatively little media promotion, although better than some sent-to-die titles
- No confirmation of retailer pre-order yet.
I do know for sure that there's a 0% chance of this title being a million seller or even close. I also know there's a 0% chance of this title bombing so badly it doesn't reach my definition of Nintendo's DS b-grade (again, 80k-~200k, although I wouldn't include most 2004/2005 titles in this description).
My currently prediction is a minimum of ~225-250k, and a maximum of 450k. I'll revise if something major changes or when retailer pre-orders are disclosed.
DeaconKnowledge
Member
charlequin said:
I'm not really rallying for it, i'm just bringing it up as discourse.
Though I will add I think it was pretty clear that Nintendo gave up on the GameCube by the time BKO was greenlit.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
ZealousD said:
ToI has a better chance than TotT. There's also the possibility of Nintendo picking it up like FF4a and ToP GBA.
Pureauthor said:
Mitsuda only did one track of Luminous Arc. Supposedly he's doing the whole soundtrack for Soma Bringer, though even so, the last soundtrack he did in full (Armodyne) wasn't so hot.
charlequin said:
Yeah, I think the game's going to be a massive bomb.
Stumpokapow said:
What hype? I don't see any. There isn't any amongst most gamers and I haven't seen anything to suggest retailers were hyped about it, either. Where is that coming from?
jarrod said:
The Xenosaga games sold well. Really, it was only the Baten Kaitos series (not unsurprisingly, the one on the Nintendo machines) that really bombed. Namco x Capcom did decently... a bit over 130k. That's not too bad, and it's a lot more than I expect to see for Soma Bringer!
Cosmonaut X
Member
ethelred said:
The most recent Nintendo retailer meeting, IIRC - according to Jonnyram, reaction to the game from retailers was very positive.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
ethelred said:
I know that there's isn't any hype amongst gamers. That was confirmed from day one. And certainly there have only been a few Famitsu showings. The retailer hype, though, has been mentioned a few times.
Again, I'm on the move right now and don't have access to all my home bookmarks (and I'm not sure I bookmarked any of this stuff), but here's one example:
Jonnyram said:
IIRC most of the other reports I read were on 2ch and I don't have the time or inclination to try to track those down with no way to contact my few Japanese-speaking/reading friends and with a class to attend in half an hour. The only Western source I can find for the Secret of Mana comparison is Spencer Yip, but I'm unclear as to whether he's played the game or not (probably not).
ethelred said:
Xenosaga sold well relative to games in general and the genre in specific. People, though, tend to conceive of it as ... relative to the slow and agonizing realization that Xenosaga was not a continuation of Xenogears (going from OMG XENOGEARS 2, to a six-party Xenosaga, to "uh... more like a spiritual sequel" to a three-part Xenosaga, including Xenosaga 2: Piece of Poo). I think the stench of Square's PS1 success has tainted perceptions of Xenosaga's sales numbers.
As for 130k, I can say with absolute confidence that it'll do at least that all told. Again, I fully admit that there's a dash of hope on my part to assume it'll graduate into the A-level category (defined as 250k-500k), but there's no hope required to do as well as ASH.
5 Nintendo titles above/below 130k (all Moor-Angol's numbers):
Super Princess Peach - 196, DK Jungle Climber - 179, Stafi 4 - 167, Daigassou! Band Bros - 164, Chibi-Robo - 134
Planet Puzzle League - 117, Eyeshield 21 - 110, Custom Robo Arena - 109, Trace Memory - 105, ASH - 101
Sorry about the list.
Virtually all of Nintendo's actual DS games released since the DS boom have made a minimum of 130k. ASH is an unmitigated failure on every level--critical, sales-wise overall, sellthrough of first shipment, relative-to-budget, gamer reception, reputation of the company, every level (which is unfortunate, because most of us love the Gooch and wanted success for the game)
I can't imagine even in a worst-case scenario that Soma Bringer ends up doing that poorly. I explain a few positive and negative indicators earlier in the thread.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
ethelred said:
Magical Starsign is a true anomaly. The GBA Magical Vacation did 250k. MS did 50k. On the other hand, if you look at Brownie Brown's record, it's tempting to implicate them; Blue Dragon Plus has awful buzz, Heroes of Mana flopped, Magical Starsign flopped, Sword of Mana had horrid reception. Only Mother 3, where they did none of the creative work, and Magical Vacation did any good. I suspect MV might have done well partly because everyone was excited at the prospect of Nintendo getting a bunch of Square personnel.
MS isn't just a normal flop, though. I think Advance Wars DS is the ONLY DS non-puzzle release that actually did worse than MS, and that at least has the advantage of being pre-DS boom.
Let's look at this another way. If you look at 2007 Nintendo releases, Kurikin Nano Island Story at 70k is Nintendo's worst, and that's without getting the Top 500 update to top it up. (I don't include Card Hero here because we only have one week of data for it). After Kurikin is ASH, and then Planet Puzzle League.
If you think that Soma Bringer will do Magical Starsign level-bad, it'd probably be Nintendo's single largest failure this generation.
Stumpokapow said:
I agree with earlier posters who commented that Nintendo wouldn't have purchased the developer unless they felt there was something there they could work with. Nintendo is far too conservative and careful to buy a team without having thought it through carefully.
Isn't this where Matsuno is supposedly going?
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
Shiggy said:
You're actually correct. My bad. Mag Kid was sub-five digits bad (never charted, we have literally no numbers for it, except for <1000 first week). Jet Impulse I swear we had numbers for, but I'm not seeing them now.
I think the fact remains though that my core point here is right; Magical Starsign is virtually the worst failure both in terms of decline versus previous installment and in terms of overall bombage.
Vinci said:
Nintendo bought the developer because they got it at firesale prices. The whole reason I called a Monolith sale to Nintendo all the way back in January of 2006 was because the writing was on the wall: Nintendo needed (wanted) a way to churn out RPGs and they didn't really care who (as they saw even something on the level of Baten Kaitos, indisputably a failure as a series, as viable), and Scamco wanted rid of Monolith, whose only true outright commercially successful series was on a nosediving trajectory and who had no future prospects. Add in a merger/purchase of the company to which Monolith was a subsidiary and the reorganization/dead skin shedding those usually lead to, and the conditions were ripe.
Looking at this as some sort of grand master plan is reading too much into the wished-for brilliance of certain execs.
Stumpokapow said:
Yes, but I think MonolithSoft's record at this point is just as sketchy. They're as associated with failure as much as Brownie Brown, and I don't think any of their three announced games are going to see success.
Stumpokapow said:
Yes.
ethelred said:
It's not about a master plan; it's about doing something that makes financial sense, something that Nintendo is very good at. They must believe that they'll eventually make money off of Monolith or they wouldn't have bothered. It's not like Nintendo isn't making money not having a dedicated RPG team, so why buy if there's no tangible, financial benefit to the deal?
That doesn't make sense to me.
I might be reading too much into things in this interview, where the producer speaks only in generalities after he's asked what difficulties there would be in translating "a game such as ToI"--in other words, no confirmation nor denial nor hints/implications toward either--but I'm inclined to think it's coming. Or maybe it's just hope speaking; I don't know.ZealousD said:
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
ethelred said:
What do you make of the murmurs that the Bandai-Namco merger was partially spurred by Nintendo buying up Mattel's share of Bandai as a stepping stone towards buying the whole company?
I understand that Monolith Soft was part of the Namco half of the company, but this to me has always been at least worth pondering.
Pureauthor
Member
Jiggy37 said:
I keep trying to play my first Tales game and Scamco keeps cockblocking me. Let's hope they don't do it this time!
*shakes fist*
I think the legs could be explained by the fact that it suffered shortages during the holidays. In terms of raw numbers it's not really doing anything exceptional for a big western FPS. (Halo 3 sold 83k and Resistance 136k.)Sho_Nuff82 said:
Galaxy WILL reach a million, and has a good chance of doing it while in the top 30.Lobster said:
DeaconKnowledge
Member
ethelred said:
What was the point in buying Monolithsoft to provide the same output that Brownie Brown is creating?
Ok, I had this thought last night and wanted to get people's opinions.
The question: Does the PS3's 2008 slate of games, combined with the complete lack of big "hardcore" 3rd party Wii games leave open the possibility that by the end of 2008, the PS3 will have enough of a core gamer install base that big 3rd party games will be just as viable on PS3/360 as on the Wii or moreso?
Basically, the argument is that the PS3 has a decent slate of high profile core games coming that will help the PS3 grow the core audience to a degree that it is actually comparable to the Wii's audience. Looking at 08, so far there doesn't seem to be much announced for Wii, especially from 3rd parties, that look to grow the core gamer audience. MH3, Smash, Mario Kart....?? PS3 on the other hand, potentially has a 08 lineup of FF13, RE5, GT5, MGS4, Ryu ga Gotoku Kenzan, DMC4, possibly ToV and some others. Now, I fully realize that the power of these franchises might have heavily been dependant on the PS2 userbase- I guess my response is that if enough of these games are released and the price of the PS3 continues to fall, those PS2 users might migrate to the PS3 instead of the Wii.
Essentially, the argument is that so far the Wii HAS NOT captured the PS2 core audience and doesn't yet have the 08 lineup to change that. PS3 by contrast, just might.
Now this requires a lot of assumptions
#1- Nintendo has nothing in the pipeline for 08 besides Mario Kart Wii, SSBB and Animal Crossing for 08
- I want to say this is unlikely, but who the hell knows with Nintendo.
#2- 3rd parties have no other major third party games coming for 08 besides MH3.
- I think this is more likely than assumption 1. I think there are announcements to come, but then again I thought major announcements would happen at TGS too
#3- The Wii userbase will continue to not support most 3rd party games leading to further 3rd party trepidation
- We'll see. The argument is that after SSBB the Wii will have a influx of core game owners.
#4- FF13, RE5, and GT5 will be released in 08
Ok, so I'm interested in if people think;
1- Is this a possibility
2- What can Sony do to make this theory come true
3- What can Nintendo do to disprove this theory
4- On a related note, will Nintendo actually do what they need to do and do they even want to
5- What will actually happen in 08
One final note- in case anyone thinks otherwise, I'm not at all arguing hardware sales or even overall software sales. Nintendo has that war won.
The question: Does the PS3's 2008 slate of games, combined with the complete lack of big "hardcore" 3rd party Wii games leave open the possibility that by the end of 2008, the PS3 will have enough of a core gamer install base that big 3rd party games will be just as viable on PS3/360 as on the Wii or moreso?
Basically, the argument is that the PS3 has a decent slate of high profile core games coming that will help the PS3 grow the core audience to a degree that it is actually comparable to the Wii's audience. Looking at 08, so far there doesn't seem to be much announced for Wii, especially from 3rd parties, that look to grow the core gamer audience. MH3, Smash, Mario Kart....?? PS3 on the other hand, potentially has a 08 lineup of FF13, RE5, GT5, MGS4, Ryu ga Gotoku Kenzan, DMC4, possibly ToV and some others. Now, I fully realize that the power of these franchises might have heavily been dependant on the PS2 userbase- I guess my response is that if enough of these games are released and the price of the PS3 continues to fall, those PS2 users might migrate to the PS3 instead of the Wii.
Essentially, the argument is that so far the Wii HAS NOT captured the PS2 core audience and doesn't yet have the 08 lineup to change that. PS3 by contrast, just might.
Now this requires a lot of assumptions
#1- Nintendo has nothing in the pipeline for 08 besides Mario Kart Wii, SSBB and Animal Crossing for 08
- I want to say this is unlikely, but who the hell knows with Nintendo.
#2- 3rd parties have no other major third party games coming for 08 besides MH3.
- I think this is more likely than assumption 1. I think there are announcements to come, but then again I thought major announcements would happen at TGS too
#3- The Wii userbase will continue to not support most 3rd party games leading to further 3rd party trepidation
- We'll see. The argument is that after SSBB the Wii will have a influx of core game owners.
#4- FF13, RE5, and GT5 will be released in 08
Ok, so I'm interested in if people think;
1- Is this a possibility
2- What can Sony do to make this theory come true
3- What can Nintendo do to disprove this theory
4- On a related note, will Nintendo actually do what they need to do and do they even want to
5- What will actually happen in 08
One final note- in case anyone thinks otherwise, I'm not at all arguing hardware sales or even overall software sales. Nintendo has that war won.
the way I see it, there will be two core markets, HD and Wii.
3rd parties can't miss the GTA/FF/RE5/GT5 train, but they will also not want to miss the market made by Zelda/RE4-REUC/SSBB/MH3/others.
I think both userbases will grow to a point it is viable to make core projects for them.
3rd parties can't miss the GTA/FF/RE5/GT5 train, but they will also not want to miss the market made by Zelda/RE4-REUC/SSBB/MH3/others.
I think both userbases will grow to a point it is viable to make core projects for them.
As long as 3rd parties keep their heads firmly in their asses, 3rd party games on the Wii will continue to suffer lukewarm receptions. Given that most of them seem unaware of the problem despite it being fairly obvious to some of us, this trend is likely to continue for quite some time.
With that in mind, I'd say that the HD & Wii games will be separate as kurosawa predicts, but I think the HD gaming side will largely be carried by the 360 and not the PS3.
Hardware Leader: Wii
Software Leader: 360
With that in mind, I'd say that the HD & Wii games will be separate as kurosawa predicts, but I think the HD gaming side will largely be carried by the 360 and not the PS3.
Hardware Leader: Wii
Software Leader: 360
Cosmonaut X
Member
schuelma said:
Unlikely. Those may be their biggest games, but I expect at least another 2 or 3 second-tier titles.
This is quite likely, IMO. The longer we drag on without any big announcements in the face of continued hardware dominance, the more I think that - for whatever reason you choose, be it poor sales, Nintendo dominance, difficulty in shifting from their early commitment to PS3... - most third parties aren't on board yet or are deep in a transition that won't bear fruit anytime soon. I think we'll see more from small developers and publishers this year, though, as they seem best-placed for the switch to full-on Wii development.
This is a worry, but I think it's obvious that the Wii audience will respond to well-targeted or well-advertised third-party efforts. However, that still leaves a gap for the publishers of more traditional games and they - and Nintendo - are going to have to work to build an audience for those games on the platform. I don't think the problem is insurmountable, and Nintendo do seem to recognise it - there's been a lot more talk recently from figures like Iwata about the need to appeal to the trad gamer.
Not a hope, unlikely, definite.
Xenosaga started strong, but sank pretty quick. It was a surprisingly steep decline both critically and commercially.ethelred said:
NxC was an outright bomb considering the properties involved, companies involved and platform though... hell, Baten Kaitos managed 70k (~50% of NxC's end sales), and it was a no name GameCube RPG that used a card system. :lol
I'd say Monolith's a lost cause, but who knows though... Nintendo's got a split track record with getting the best out of lost causes, could easily go either way I guess. Soma Bringer's probably got the best shot of their 3 current projects though.
test_account
XP-39C²
I'm also curious on how the 3rd party support when it comes to the big franchises/titles will be on Wii for 2008 (i'm curious about how it will be in Wii's total lifespand as well 
). Some developers have shown concern that 1st party sales on Wii are the ones that are selling the most, but i'm sure more than Capcom with their MH3 will release some of their biggest title on Wii as well. Dragon Quest X maybe, but if (i guess its not needed to say if hehe) DQ9 does well on DS DQ10 might be released for DS as well.
Dont forget about MGS 4 I know you said som others thought, but i just had to point out MGS 4 since its one of the bigger title What game is ToV by the way?
). Some developers have shown concern that 1st party sales on Wii are the ones that are selling the most, but i'm sure more than Capcom with their MH3 will release some of their biggest title on Wii as well. Dragon Quest X maybe, but if (i guess its not needed to say if hehe) DQ9 does well on DS DQ10 might be released for DS as well.schuelma said:
Dont forget about MGS 4
I know you said som others thought, but i just had to point out MGS 4 since its one of the bigger title What game is ToV by the way?test_account said:Dont forget about MGS 4
Whoops! Completely forgot about it for some reason. Added to my post.
ToV is Tales of Vesperia, which is rumored to be a timed exclusive to 360, but I put it in there just in case.
test_account
XP-39C²
schuelma said:
Ah ok, thanks
For 08, so far NCL's got...schuelma said:
-Dairantou Smash Bros. X (Sora/Game Arts/Smash Team)
-Disaster: Day of Crisis (Monolith Soft)
-Doubutsu no Mori 2 (Nintendo EAD)
-Mario Kart Wii (Nintendo EAD)
-Metroid Prime 3: Corruption (Retro Studios)
-Super Mario Stadium: Family Baseball (Namco)
-Wii Music (Nintendo EAD)
...and it's sure to fill out for the 2nd half after E3. There's also a bunch of WiiWare efforts in the pipeline.