PantherLotus said:
So Galaxy has reportedly tanked. 80k in its second week is pretty bad, but does fall in line with falling expectations for mainline Nintendo titles on consoles. (SMS, WW, TP, etc).
What does it really mean?
that console mario platformers are on the decline in japan? that handhelds are taking some of the console players? (at least currently - handhelds may be bridging the generation gap as people wait for things console to settle down a bit this gen).
also: wii demographic is not == gamecube demographic at this time, in spite of nintendo putting almost all of their hardcore effort into getting gamecube owners to migrate to wii.
PantherLotus said:
Was Nintendo right (Japan doesn't want hardcore games)?
handhelds say false, right? i don't think it's hard to see that this console gen is suffering from a slower migration than the past gen, when it was evident rather early that the ps2 was going to steamroller the competition and get the sequels to all of the ps1 games everyone had.
PantherLotus said:
Or was it a self-fulfilling prophecy (They want hardcore games but not Mario, not on a casual system)?
i'd love to know this. there's some element of self-fulfilling prophecy here, but with the current status of the ps3/360 in japan, it's hard to say anything definitive at this point. ps2 sales are certainly on the decline, and some of these people are playing on handhelds, but whether they've got plans to go console this gen, and what they'll buy...
PantherLotus said:
Or is console gaming dead? (Handhelds ftmfw)?
not dead, as evidenced by nintendo's short pick-up-and-play stuff.
the whole ps3-will-be-king mentality really threw a wrench into the third party core software transition. this, combined with ascendant handhelds, and a hard-to-target wii demographic is making console game development a big pita.
PantherLotus said:
How is this relevant to 3rd parties, and how do they respond?
conservative response: build ip/mindshare on ds while market watching or target "western" tastes.
brave response: innovate on wii without directly competing with nintendo.
very brave response: make something that was impossible last gen on ps3 that isn't just lots of polygons.
PantherLotus said:
Are they part of the problem?
the lack of compelling third party software is slowing hardware adoption (still).
PantherLotus said:
And finally, what now? Can we draw ridiculously morbid conclusions about the entire industry because of this?
it's hard to be optimistic when something like galaxy generates such effusive praise, but can't set the market on fire. still... i think wait for 2008 before self-cutting is advisable.