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[Fady K]

Ooh, ooh, I can! Let's see... devs focus resources on the hideously expensive X360 and the PS3, thereby further screwing up the industry. Man, I'm good at this!

Screwing up the industry for you maybe. You know, there are people who do like console gaming - and not everyone likes handheld gaming more. I love my PSP and DS, but dude, you push it with your console comments. To each his own.

 

[Oblivion]

Well at the very least, we can hope it pulls a TP, and sells enough worldwide that it easily passes its predecessor.

 

[donny2112]

Okay, they've yet to release a single new core game for Wii.

EXCITE! Though that could be seen as part of the Excitebike IP.

 

[Zoe]

None of which are nearly as big in Japan. Either they're listed under a different name, or no Singstar/Buzz/EyeToy titles make J-GC's 200K cutoff for the PS2 listings.

Singstar has never been released in Japan

 

[Pureauthor]

Screwing up the industry for you maybe. You know, there are people who do like console gaming - and not everyone likes handheld gaming more. I love my PSP and DS, but dude, you push it with your console comments. To each his own.

It has nothing to do with my increasing apathy towards console gaming - else I'd have thrown the Wii in with the bunch. I refuse to tolerate gaming systems that cost over USD 200 as is, and the X360 and the PS3 are pushing it. The systems are ridiculously expensive, and there is no justification for that.

 

[Flo_Evans]

wtf Japan?

I don't get it. Totally anecdotal and OT but 4/4 wii owners in my office bought mario galaxy last night.

 

[Evlar]

Well at the very least, we can hope it pulls a TP, and sells enough worldwide that it easily passes its predecessor.

I think SMG is going to do very, very well in NA and Europe. There's nothing to be concerned about on that point. Japan is out of step.

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

I'd been thinking this as well. However,
DS, PSP, Wii 2007 (MC)
DS, PSP, Wii 2007 (Fam)
the DS/Wii drop is bigger than the PSP gain, and it seems to have started a few weeks earlier.

None of which are nearly as big in Japan. Either they're listed under a different name, or no Singstar/Buzz/EyeToy titles make J-GC's 200K cutoff for the PS2 listings.

11 weeks ago, DS and WIi, without any apparent reason, started to decline. And this, for me, is still a mistery. And the weird thing: BOTH DS and Wii started to go down in the same week. Why ?

A few points

1- I don't think advertising has much to do with Galaxy's disappointment in Japan.
.

Then what is the cause ? If the hardcore audience isn't here, why Dragon Quest Swords sold so well ?

And point 2: PSP sales are just amazing. But software is still doing bad. Once again, why ?

 

[charlequin]

Project H.A.M.M.E.R?

erm.. I mean Disaster: Day of Crisis?

Alright, you got me there. They've announced one shitty new core gamer IP, and one core gamer IP so shitty it had to be cancelled before release. :lol

Another consideration is that every trend for Wii and DS started in Japan and sooner or later diffused in USA and Europe. So, if these simptoms are not only overreactions of the GAF, but it is really the start of the decline of Wii and DS, then I think that Nintendo has still some time to change this thread.

Where would you get the idea that there's any decline going on for the DS? It's still putting up the week-to-week best numbers (that are still plateaued at a level far above previous successful systems) and still has what are some of the holiday's biggest titles coming in the next month and a half.

You were offended by my position on Nintendo?

You can substitute "bothersome" or "noxious" or possibly "weaksauce" if you prefer.

I find it very amusing that you refer to my position as "disingenuous" when most of the people in that thread agreed with me.

No, I find your argumentation disingenuous. JJS and donny have positions pretty close to yours, but thus far the discourse in these threads and the overall level of analysis and understanding seems to benefit from my engaging them in debate, while all you seem interested in is smug rejoinders about billions of profit. I'm really not interested in engaging with the kind of sales-age boosterism that brought on all the NPD-is-cancelled schadenfreude.

 

[schuelma]

wtf Japan?

I don't get it. Totally anecdotal and OT but 4/4 wii owners in my office bought mario galaxy last night.

More anecdotal- in the official Galaxy thread many reports of sellouts and lineups to get Galaxy. It's going to do amazing in N.A.

 

[John Harker]

Sorry John.
TP: 145K, 36K. Two week total of 181K.
SMG: 256K, 78K. Two week total of 334K.

bu-but.. if you compare userbases and tie ratio/sell through...

 

[Fady K]

It has nothing to do with my increasing apathy towards console gaming - else I'd have thrown the Wii in with the bunch. I refuse to tolerate gaming systems that cost over USD 200 as is, and the X360 and the PS3 are pushing it. The systems are ridiculously expensive, and there is no justification for that.

I see what you're saying, but dude, they were ridiculously expensive. Sure, @400 is still a LOT of money - but you have to consider what you're getting. Sure, it boils down to just having fun and playing the game, but the X360 and PS3 are pushing towards a much a more acceptable price, with enough losses that they're going through, even though they offer more than just gaming.

 

[Weisheit]

You can substitute "bothersome" or "noxious" or possibly "weaksauce" if you prefer.

Again what posts exactly are you referring to? Or did you just spend the last 10 minutes looking and realize your statement was bullshit?

 

[nextgeneration]

More anecdotal- in the official Galaxy thread many reports of sellouts and lineups to get Galaxy. It's going to do amazing in N.A.

Galaxy will do much better in US than in Japan. That really shouldn't come as a huge surprise. It should be a multi million seller in the US and will have long legs. So, for those who are worried about Japanese sales, the US sales should make up for it. Oh, and while we're talking about sales, I'm just going to throw my software predictions for Galaxy for November NPD right now. I'm predicting 1 million sales in November.

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

More anecdotal- in the official Galaxy thread many reports of sellouts and lineups to get Galaxy. It's going to do amazing in N.A.

It deserves it.

Anyway, now it is obvious that Twilight Princess's performance was not an isolated case, because Mario Galaxy is doing the same thing: very well in Europe and NA and bad in Japan.

Nintendo should start to think how to attract more gamers on its console in Japan... And the best way its: marketing.

 

[Pureauthor]

I see what you're saying, but dude, they were ridiculously expensive. Sure, @400 is still a LOT of money - but you have to consider what you're getting. Sure, it boils down to just having fun and playing the game, but the X360 and PS3 are pushing towards a much a more acceptable price, with enough losses that they're going through, even though they offer more than just gaming.

Well, that they're bleeding money through every orifice they've got (and some they don't), it's really the result of their own decisions concerning their consoles. The best console this year in terms of gaming is still the PS2, and it's got the weakest hardware of bunch.

Yeah, if/when they acceptable price, I'll pay more attention to 'em.

 

[Fady K]

Well, that they're bleeding money through every orifice they've got (and some they don't), it's really the result of their own decisions concerning their consoles. Decisions The best console this year in terms of gaming is still the PS2, and it's got the weakest hardware of bunch.

Yeah, if/when they acceptable price, I'll pay more attention to 'em.

Im guessing next year for you then. Bigger userbases, more content, less losses..hopefully.

 

[Souldriver]

Ooh, ooh, I can! Let's see... devs focus resources on the hideously expensive X360 and the PS3, thereby further screwing up the industry. Man, I'm good at this!

Well, for at least a year we'd get some great games then, instead of crappy minigame fests.

 

[Frillen]

I think SMG is going to do very, very well in NA and Europe. There's nothing to be concerned about on that point. Japan is out of step.

Definitely. Zelda TP sold just over 500k in Japan, while the Wii version has already sold over 2 Mill in the US alone.

 

[ziran]

Dude. EAD has been doing this with every one of its major franchises for well over a decade. SMG is great and all, but painting Nintendo as the wise savior to foolish, uninventive third parties here is ludicrous.

You're seeing something I didn't write. I didn't say everyone except Nintendo, I said developers.

While Nintendo did see what was going to happen in Japan earlier than anyone else and most importantly address it, and is the only developer having massive success on a home system, with Wii Sports, they clearly were responsible for the decline in traditional gaming as much as anyone because of what happened with GC. Their games on the that system contributed to the decline that happened in Japan.

What do we know about the Japanese market that gives Galaxy any hope? Wii Fit is almost guaranteed to be the "must buy" title that moves along with holiday Wii system purchases, and SMG's 70% dropoff pretty unambiguously says that it's not benefitting from a wave of positive word-of-mouth or a mass of people who want the game but didn't want it quite enough to buy it day 1.

Re-read what I wrote, there you will find your answer. I've addressed it at least twice in this thread. If you disagree, no problem

I went over this at length just a little upthread. Games have trended in an intricate and complex direction that makes them inaccessible, leading to only the hardest-core gamers still maintaining interest in them; this is a trend that Nintendo did in fact correctly identify and has worked to counteract. But it has nothing to do with people being bored of the central types of game that have made up core gaming for years; it has to do with accessibility and presentation.

It's because of the DS that we can see that this "no one wants real games anymore!" argument doesn't hold water. The truth is that Nintendo simply hasn't done the work: games succeeded on the DS because the GBA and non-gamer bases came together and formed a stronger whole, so they thought they could get away without making any serious effort to draw people on the lapsed-through-hardcore half of the spectrum on to their new console.

I really think I implied that, but fair enough.

So, I'm agreeing with you. The central themes have remained the same, the way they are presented is at fault. DS succeeded because it often cuts out the things that were putting people off. When I say hardcore gaming, I mean gaming as it often existed last gen. People in Japan want 'real' games, but they clearly don't want an extension of where gaming was headed. Taking it one step further, I believe far more last gen PS2/GC gamers see the Wii Sports style of gaming as real gaming than is realised.

Nintendo hasn't done the work is in part true, but no Japanese 3rd party would've been prepared to drop PS3 support in favour of Wii without massive incentives, because they assumed PS3 to be the future. This spend would've been too big a risk. Nintendo didn't expect PS3 to fail so dramatically or Wii to be in such demand early on. This is their mistake.

Now we've seen them score an exclusive with a hardcore game with a big potential for growth, MH3. I think we're likely to see more of these types of deals over the coming year. Nintendo has a tonne of money and they've said before they don't mind using it if they think it will create more money. The fact is they have the system with biggest installed base in Japan, and a rapidly growing one around the rest of the world, so money can be spent reasonably securely to get exclusives from 3rd parties. Also, Japanese developers could have a way back to regaining marketshare from non-Japanese developers outside Japan because western developers are have understandable devotion to 360.

Retaining the handheld crown was easy, regaining the home console market was always going to be more difficult especially coming after GC, but as with the (older) new system with all the right incentives, PlayStation, it didn't happen day one, it took time for developers to move over.


EDIT-

More anecdotal- in the official Galaxy thread many reports of sellouts and lineups to get Galaxy. It's going to do amazing in N.A.

That is some good news. Hopefully SMG is going to be a massive seller everywhere even Japan (eventually)!

 

[wazoo]

Well at the very least, we can hope it pulls a TP, and sells enough worldwide that it easily passes its predecessor.

Has TP sold more than WW ??

 

[sphinx]

I still think its too early to declare a new trend, especially with Nintendo having some heavy hitters in the next month or so. If after the holiday season PS3 still has a ton of momentum then maybe there is a trend.

In a sense he is right.

for 2 months, Wii has been declining and coincidentally the PS3 just had a pricedrop and a new SKU that is helping it make a comeback.

we are at 60% of the change of tides. It reached 50% when PS3 started selling like a decent console ( last week ) and continued when SMG failed miserably to attract attention.

now, if PS3 can keep sales above those of the Wii and japan continues to spit on the Wii week after week, then PS3 is back as a contender.

 

[wazoo]

Then what is the cause ? If the hardcore audience isn't here, why Dragon Quest Swords sold so well ?

Because DQ is not hardcore in Japan ??

 

[Oblivion]

Has TP sold more than WW ??

Yup. In like 6 months or so too.

 

[Weisheit]

I'm really not interested in engaging with the kind of sales-age boosterism that brought on all the NPD-is-cancelled schadenfreude.

Do you often repond to posters who you have no interest in debating?

No, I find your argumentation disingenuous. JJS and donny have positions pretty close to yours, but thus far the discourse in these threads and the overall level of analysis and understanding seems to benefit from my engaging them in debate, while all you seem interested in is smug rejoinders about billions of profit.

Rejoinders? Really? As I recall I brought up the whole "maybe Nintendo doesn't give a shit about third parties" debate in that thread.

 

[Evlar]

I hope PS3 is making a comeback, and that they can hold at a higher weekly sales rate going forward. A strong Nintendo and a strong Sony existing side by side is my ideal.

 

[Fady K]

I hope PS3 is making a comeback, and that they can hold at a higher weekly sales rate going forward. A strong Nintendo and a strong Sony existing side by side is my ideal.

Mine as well.

 

[Eteric Rice]

I still don't get the freaking out that people are doing right now. This is a slow time for Japan, and the PS3 just got a new color + price drop, it was kind of expected.

I don't think much is changing. The only thing that "may" be changing is Japan's love of minigames. And I mean, I can't blame them. That's all we've been getting for a while.

As for Galaxy, I can't really say what happened there. It could be a number of things. But hopefully, word of mouth will slowly rev it up over time.

If the situation is the same after a few months, then you can celebrate/worry.

 

[Prine]

Ooh, ooh, I can! Let's see... devs focus resources on the hideously expensive X360 and the PS3, thereby further screwing up the industry. Man, I'm good at this!

Working extremley well with 3rd parties over here. You're shit at this

 

[charlequin]

Now we've seen them score an exclusive with a hardcore game with a big potential for growth, MH3. I think we're likely to see more of these types of deals over the coming year.

We'll see, I guess. My position is that Nintendo's already made a mistake by not making more efforts of this sort early on -- even if they didn't expect to catapult into the lead. I don't see a lot of effort that they're going to start now -- and if they're only starting today after already seeing SMG start to tank, it's probably too late. But it is still up in the air.

Again what posts exactly are you referring to? Or did you just spend the last 10 minutes looking and realize your statement was bullshit?

I'm weary of your Nintendo boosterism. If you want to make an actual well-reasoned attempt at explaining how I'm wrong and Nintendo haven't made any mistakes (by which I mean, there wasn't much they could have done differently to be significantly more successful) I'll debate the actual issues with you, but I'm not interested in getting dragged into more nitpicky bullshit or getting called out on word choice. Non-sarcastic leading question: which do you want here?

 

[Eteric Rice]

We'll see, I guess. My position is that Nintendo's already made a mistake by not making more efforts of this sort early on -- even if they didn't expect to catapult into the lead. I don't see a lot of effort that they're going to start now -- and if they're only starting today after already seeing SMG start to tank, it's probably too late. But it is still up in the air.

Iwata actually said a few days ago that they'll be focusing on the core audience more, now that the casuals have had their fill.

Personally, I would have done all of that in reverse (maybe Wii Sports and a big core game that isn't Zelda). But who knows how that would have turned out.

 

[Pureauthor]

Working extremley well with 3rd parties over here. You're shit at this

a) Define 'here'.

b) Developing for the DS seems to have worked out well for the 3rd parties who bothered! Hardly the 'worst-case' scenario, then, is it?

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Where would you get the idea that there's any decline going on for the DS? It's still putting up the week-to-week best numbers

It's still the best at a declined level, like Wii hardware has been the best console hardware at a declined level. DS has had more sub-100K weeks in the last two months than it did in the previous 20-something months.

bu-but.. if you compare userbases and tie ratio/sell through...

Fair enough; I've been one to give such reasons for TP's lessened performance. :lol If SMG was as strong on now-Wii as TP was on early-Wii, SMG through week 2 would be at 1.4 million.

 

[thefro]

As I said, and can now confirm since I've actually played the game for a few hours, Galaxy is too good not to have great legs.

If Wii Fit and Brawl both bomb and don't boost Wii's sales, then it's time to get worried.

I'm confident Iwata will adjust as needed even if that happens.

 

[Weisheit]

I'm weary of your Nintendo boosterism. If you want to make an actual well-reasoned attempt at explaining how I'm wrong and Nintendo haven't made any mistakes (by which I mean, there wasn't much they could have done differently to be significantly more successful) I'll debate the actual issues with you, but I'm not interested in getting dragged into more nitpicky bullshit or getting called out on word choice. Non-sarcastic leading question: which do you want here?

I'm weary of your selective quoting and misrepresentation of my statements, please show me were I claimed Nintendo hasn't made any mistakes.

 

[charlequin]

Iwata actually said a few days ago that they'll be focusing on the core audience more, now that the casuals have had their fill.

Well, like I said, I'll believe it when I see it. My stance is that it's going to take about 4 total, non-old-Nintendo-IP, big core gamer titles in 2008 to give the impression that Wii is a real game machine, and we're at one (MH3); if some more get announced soon, I'll have to say that they're working at fixing this.

It's still the best at a declined level, like Wii hardware has been the best console hardware at a declined level. DS has had more sub-100K weeks in the last two months than it did in the previous 20-something months.

True, I guess in that sense it's simply true that there's a "decline" for DS. I guess what I mean is: is there any reason to think that the DS is going to slip below a "absolutely, positively, hugely successful" margin?

I'm weary of your selective quoting and misrepresentation of my statements, please show me were I claimed Nintendo hasn't made any mistakes.

So... get over it? I'm not going to dig up your old posts to prove anything because I'd rather you articulated your sales position so I could respond to that.

 

[Pureauthor]

True, I guess in that sense it's simply true that there's a "decline" for DS. I guess what I mean is: is there any reason to think that the DS is going to slip below a "absolutely, positively, hugely successful" margin?

Well, once it reaches the GBA levels it'll - no wait, that won't work.

Ah! It'll die off once it hits the PS2. All the core gamers would've switched over and BAM! Dead as a doorknob.

 

[schuelma]

Well, like I said, I'll believe it when I see it. My stance is that it's going to take about 4 total, non-old-Nintendo-IP, big core gamer titles in 2008 to give the impression that Wii is a real game machine, and we're at one (MH3); if some more get announced soon, I'll have to say that they're working at fixing this.

Well, assuming FF:CC:CB (My God what an absurd name!) is out in 08, I'd say that's 2.

 

[Eteric Rice]

Well, assuming FF:CC:CB (My God what an absurd name!) is out in 08, I'd say that's 2.

Also, NiGHTS, Kings Quest, and a few other games (the one from Vanillaware, etc) to look forward to.

Also, MH3.

 

[AnimeTheme]

I am surprised that everyone seems to miss Winning Eleven as a big game for PS3 this fall. Even though it is a multiplatform release (PS2/PS3/XB360), I am not surprised if the PS3 version alone can sell over 200k this holiday.

 

[justjohn]

i'm still impressed by how the psp has kept momentum.
anyway more psp news: the upcoming red psp had a limited 100000 available and its been filled up already.

 

[Weisheit]

So... get over it? I'm not going to dig up your old posts to prove anything because I'd rather you articulated your sales position so I could respond to that.

Right because those post don't exist.

Your offensive position and disingenuous arguing last week

For future reference maybe you shouldn't make stupid ass post like this if your not willing to back it up.

 

[schuelma]

Also, NiGHTS, Kings Quest, and a few other games (the one from Vanillaware, etc) to look forward to.

Also, MH3.

Yes, but I doubt those will be AAA sales wise.

 

[Ristlager]

Do you think Capcom is a bit worried about their plans to make Monster Hunter 3 for the wii after what is happening with SMG. I mean if SMG is having trouble selling, and the MH3 adience is far more hardcore, is there a market for MH3 on the wii? They would have to change the formula quite a bit for MH3 to please most of the wii base. And that would seriously piss of most of the MH3 fans (especially me... )

I don't think they would have had much trouble selling a good amount of copies, if they made it for PS3, as most of the people buying PS3's are pretty hardcore. Even if they cut some corners in order of keeping the cost down.

Sorry for bringing this up again

 

[Zoe]

Also, NiGHTS, Kings Quest, and a few other games (the one from Vanillaware, etc) to look forward to.

Also, MH3.

What what what?

 

[charlequin]

Well, assuming FF:CC:CB (My God what an absurd name!) is out in 08, I'd say that's 2.

Oh, right, forgot about that. Tentatively, yes. It kind of depends on how significant a project it really is. If it's a really meaty, full-fledged ARPG as S-E seems to be saying... yes, definitely. If it's six hours long and kinda shoddy (as FF:CC for DS apparently was)... not as much.

For future reference maybe you shouldn't make stupid ass post like this if your not willing to back it up.

So you... don't want to talk about sales?

 

[Evlar]

i'm still impressed by how the psp has kept momentum.
anyway more psp news: the upcoming red psp had a limited 100000 available and its been filled up already.

That's a really lovely looking handheld. It matches my new red-and-black DS. If I hadn't just purchased a silver slim I would consider importing one.

 

[Eteric Rice]

What what what?

Probably got that wrong. King Quest I think it was.

Yes, but I doubt those will be AAA sales wise.

No, but its a good sign to me. The PS2 had a lot of those games (niche), and I love niche games.

 

[schuelma]

Oh, right, forgot about that. Tentatively, yes. It kind of depends on how significant a project it really is. If it's a really meaty, full-fledged ARPG as S-E seems to be saying... yes, definitely. If it's six hours long and kinda shoddy (as FF:CC for DS apparently was)... not as much.

True true- I'm operating under the assumption that it is the former.

 

[justjohn]

Do you think Capcom is a bit worried about their plans to make Monster Hunter 3 for the wii after what is happening with SMG. I mean if SMG is having trouble selling, and the MH3 adience is far more hardcore, is there a market for MH3 on the wii? They would have to change the formula quite a bit for MH3 to please most of the wii base. And that would seriously piss of most of the MH3 fans (especially me... )

I don't think they would have had much trouble selling a good amount of copies, if they made it for PS3, as most of the people buying PS3's are pretty hardcore. Even if they cut some corners in order of keeping the cost down.

Sorry for bringing this up again

you know i was just about to post that. i still think it would have sold better on ps3 than wii, but i guess we'll never know.