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[SimpleDesign]

You can spin this analysis in all directions, actually. You could also say that if an average Jrpg like WKC managed to outsell all the Jrpgs on X360 in Japan in one single week, then you could also think that maybe (and I repeat: maybe) better and more famous IPs would have done even better.

If Japanese developers want to make HD RPGs, they have to have them come out on both platforms. To preserve long term interest in the genre they need to reach out to the Xbox 360 user base since they can't rely on the Playstation 3 alone for sales.

Unless Microsoft or Sony chip in and help with marking and cut back on licensing fees. Which I assume has been happening.

 

[RpgN]

I guess we'll never know about PS3 development difficulties, but most devs seem to be in agreement that 360 is easier to work with, both Americans and Japanese.

It's very likely that big names will sell on the PS3, I have no doubts that FF13 will have amazing sales. Hell, I knew someone who was a big Tales
Had to cut the rest

Okay, I'm not sure where you're getting at. It was always the case, popular RPGs sell mostly and many just sell average. FFs, KHs and DQs are always going to sell much more. Regarding WKC, did you look how the developer's last game performed on the ps2? Its ps3 game is performing similar to that with a much smaller userbase. And no, it didn't receive much marketing like you're saying, just the usual. The development of this game was very quiet until October? And it received disappointed grades from Famitsu, THE mag in Japan. Get your facts straight.

 

[cvxfreak]

As far as Japan is concerned, making the RPGs of Vesperia, IU, LR and soon SO4 360 only for any length of time qualifies in the top 10 stupidest gaming business decisions of the year, no matter how big the MS moneyhats were.

By making games 360 only, both Namco and SE risk ruining the viability of that particular game to wow gamers should they decide to port those titles to PS3 in the near future. In Namco's case, they risk making a PS3 Vesperia look like old news since we'll probably have seen a lot of the new Wii title. IU and LR apparently don't seem to be very remarkable titles either, sparing a lot of people from picking up a PS3 version down the line. Furthermore, telling Japanese Xbox 360 owners that they won't be getting FFXIII sends mixed messages to those that dove in for LR, IU and soon SO4. Honestly, how stupid does that make SE look?

There are numerous examples of ports being able to rescue a game from otherwise abysmally low sales. RECVX and RE4 on the PS2 did that, but the PS2 was a much stronger force than the PS3 and 360 combined. Keeping a game exclusive to the 360 and ruining it's ability to sell on the PS3 just doesn't look like it's going to be a plan that works all that well this gen. Thank god Capcom didn't do that with Biohazard 5 or DMC4.

 

[RpgN]

^
Agreed. Games just receive more buzz when they're multi and released at the same time.

EDIT

Shown by the data, that's the way to go for third party HD games.

 

[SimpleDesign]

^
Agreed. Games just receive more buzz when they're multi and released at the same time.

EDIT

Shown by the data, that's the way to go for third party HD games.

When it's announced exclusive and then made multiplatform it gets more buzz. Which is why FFXIII will outsell FFXII world wide. DMC4 would not have sold anywhere near as much had it been PS3 exclusive.

 

[cw_sasuke]

When it's announced exclusive and then made multiplatform it gets more buzz. Which is why FFXIII will outsell FFXII world wide. DMC4 would not have sold anywhere near as much had it been PS3 exclusive.

Yeah, Ps360 or Wii-xclusive is the way to go.

 

[SimpleDesign]

Yeah, Ps360 or Wii-xclusive is the way to go.

Or some kind of up port to the PS360, unless it really uses the Wii-mote. I would like to see KH3 on all three platforms.

 

[RpgN]

When it's announced exclusive and then made multiplatform it gets more buzz. Which is why FFXIII will outsell FFXII world wide. DMC4 would not have sold anywhere near as much had it been PS3 exclusive.

That too. Though FFXIII is such a popular game, I'm not sure if it would have applied for all games. Tekken 6 is kind of quiet now after it was announced as a multi title for instance.

 

[SimpleDesign]

That too. Though FFXIII is such a popular game, I'm not sure if it would have applied for all games. Tekken 6 is kind of quiet now after it was announced as a multi title for instance.

To be fair, there was hardly any hype before it went multi. :lol

 

[cvxfreak]

It's not inherently problematic for a game to be exclusive to either 360 or PS3 for a short period of time, provided that either a) one region's sales can make up for another's shortcomings or b) the game is guaranteed pretty high sales from the get go.

A good example of A would be something like RE4 on the GC. The game lagged in Japan compared to RE0, but Western sales were good enough to propel it beyond either REmake or RE0 (and every PS2 RE except its version of RE4). It looks like FFXIII will be somewhat similar, with excellent Japanese sales and perhaps subdued Western sales (although I still think the game would have been huge on PS3 only, even if potentially unprofitable).

A good example of B is MGS4.

The 360's RPGs are neither performing well enough in the West to warrant snubbing Japanese PS3 owners, nor were they ever guaranteed super-high sales.

White Knight Chronicles just proved that any next-gen Japanese RPG needs the PS3 to succeed.

 

[RpgN]

To be fair, there was hardly any hype before it went multi. :lol

True :lol It was released in arcades a long time ago. I don't know what the hell bandai namco was thinking.

 

[SimpleDesign]

It's not inherently problematic for a game to be exclusive to either 360 or PS3 for a short period of time, provided that either a) one region's sales can make up for another's shortcomings or b) the game is guaranteed pretty high sales from the get go.

A good example of A would be something like RE4 on the GC. The game lagged in Japan compared to RE0, but Western sales were good enough to propel it beyond either REmake or RE0 (and every PS2 RE except its version of RE4). It looks like FFXIII will be somewhat similar, with excellent Japanese sales and perhaps subdued Western sales (although I still think the game would have been huge on PS3 only, even if potentially unprofitable).

A good example of B is MGS4.

The 360's RPGs are neither performing well enough in the West to warrant snubbing Japanese PS3 owners, nor were they ever guaranteed super-high sales.

They're on the 360 first because Microsoft is trying to support it's platform, hell IU is a Microsoft IP and fully funded by them. Most of that money probably went into SO4 development as well.

 

[dolemite]

As far as Japan is concerned, making the RPGs of Vesperia, IU, LR and soon SO4 360 only for any length of time qualifies in the top 10 stupidest gaming business decisions of the year, no matter how big the MS moneyhats were.

Well, if not for MSFT's moneys, some of these RPGs would not be made, period. The least MSFT could ask from the publisher is to keep a time-limited exclusivity.

 

[Vinnk]

Okay, I'm not sure where you're getting at. It was always the case, popular RPGs sell mostly and many just sell average. FFs, KHs and DQs are always going to sell much more. Regarding WKC, did you look how the developer's last game performed on the ps2? Its ps3 game is performing similar to that with a much smaller userbase. And no, it didn't receive much marketing like you're saying, just the usual. The development of this game was very quiet until October? And it received disappointed grades from Famitsu, THE mag in Japan. Get your facts straight.

Sorry but this is not true. I saw ads for that game during primetime (and on popular programs like "Sanma" and "Red Carpet") every commercial break this week. Sony was the prime sponsor for many of the programs as well. Even my wife, who is not a gamer at all mentioned that these ads were on all the time. It was far and away the most advertised game last week. Beating out even Animal Crossing (which I would say was the second most advertised game). It was not usual in any way. It is the best marketing I have seen for a PS3 game since MGS4.

I don't know if you live in Japan or if you watch much Japanese television, but it had a HEAVY TV ad campaign. And it's in store campaign was also very good. Kiosks, standups, the works.

In-store I think Gundam 2 had a bit more presence but only slightly. On TV it was all WKC.

I don't dispute your other statements, but the bolded one is wrong.

 

[Paracelsus]

When it's announced exclusive and then made multiplatform

We're talking about belated port, not breaking exclusive and getting simultaneous release. Considering DQ, FF, SO and the first HD Tales are gone, the only remaining IP that have a chance to correct this mistake are Valkyrie Profile 3 and the next HD Tales. That's just a tad late.

 

[test_account]

I know that there are many variables at work of quality and whatever here, but WKC was hyped up to hell here and I'm pretty sure all PS3 owners were aware of it. I kind of expected most of the RPG fanatics would have bought it.

Is "here" in Japan or on NeoGAF?

EDIT: After reading one of your other posts (post number 398) i see that you say a friend bought WKC, so i guess you mean in Japan (unless he/she imported the game from Japan or so)?. I am just curious

 

[SimpleDesign]

The 360's RPGs are neither performing well enough in the West to warrant snubbing Japanese PS3 owners, nor were they ever guaranteed super-high sales.

White Knight Chronicles just proved that any next-gen Japanese RPG needs the PS3 to succeed.

In Japan sure, but WKC will not surpass LO world wide.

It's starting to sound like you want Xbox 360 owners to get snubbed in favor of games being PS3 exclusive.

 

[cvxfreak]

They're on the 360 first because Microsoft is trying to support it's platform, hell IU is a Microsoft IP and fully funded by them. Most of that money probably went into SO4 development as well.

Ah, I just looked into the situation with that game and so it's understandable that IU is a 360 exclusive.

No excuse for the others other than that it was a nice first try for Namco and SE.

In Japan sure, but WKC will not surpass LO world wide.

It's starting to sound like you want Xbox 360 owners to get snubbed in favor of games being PS3 exclusive.

I don't want Japanese 360 owners to get snubbed. I just stood up for them in regards to FFXIII being PS3 only. :lol

 

[cw_sasuke]

In Japan sure, but WKC will not surpass LO world wide.

You can tell the future ?

 

[Cosmonaut X]

So, with these numbers has Wii Music finally sold its first shipment?

I'll be interested to see what happens next. It's seen a marked improvement over the past couple of weeks, but I don't know how it will do now that the first shipment is gone. Will they restock quickly, or will it be abandoned now the first batch has gone? Or will they take advantage of the holiday bump and push out another smallish (50-100k) shipment? For reference, here's the past few weeks (Famitsu):

15k
9k
9k
10k
16k
39k
52k

 

[SimpleDesign]

We're talking about belated port, not breaking exclusive and getting simultaneous release. Considering DQ, FF, SO and the first HD Tales are gone, the only remaining IP that have a chance to correct this mistake are Valkyrie Profile 3 and the next HD Tales. That's just a tad late.

I don't think there will be a next HD Tales, but who knows. VP3 is kinda iffy since Microsoft and tri-Ace seem to be BFF.

 

[RpgN]

Sorry but this is not true. I saw ads for that game during primetime (and on popular programs like "Sanma" and "Red Carpet") every commercial break this week. Sony was the prime sponsor for many of the programs as well. Even my wife, who is not a gamer at all mentioned that these ads were on all the time. It was far and away the most advertised game last week. Beating out even Animal Crossing (which I would say was the second most advertised game). It was not usual in any way. It is the best marketing I have seen for a PS3 game since MGS4.

I don't know if you live in Japan or if you watch much Japanese television, but it had a HEAVY TV ad campaign.

I don't dispute your other statements, but the bolded one is wrong.

I have seen ads for the game, but many games have ads in Japan. If you're saying that it received much more, then I can't disagree. Since I don't live in Japan and wouldn't know as much as you. Thanks for the correction.

 

[SimpleDesign]

You can tell the future ?

Yes.

Did I just blow your mind?

Ok ok, I'll explain why I think it won't.

Sony marketing sucks in the West, JRPGs tend to bomb in Europe and only a select few sell in America. Lost Odyssey had the benefit of being similar to Final Fantasy and having Microsoft advertise it.

 

[Spiegel]

So, with these numbers has Wii Music finally sold its first shipment?

Not yet. Next week for sure

First shipment was 333k

 

[cvxfreak]

Where is LO at worldwide anyway?

WKC matched LO's first NPD performance in its first week. It won't take a whole lot for the US to offset Japan's low LO sales, and the PS3 isn't exactly miles behind the 360 in Europe.

 

[RpgN]

Where is LO at worldwide anyway?

WKC matched LO's first NPD performance in its first week. It won't take a whole lot for the US to offset Japan's low LO sales, and the PS3 isn't exactly miles behind the 360 in Europe.

Last time I heard, 700k+ was shipped worldwide.

It will be hard for WKC to match that, unless it gets huge marketing as well.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

Not yet. Next week for sure

First shipment was 333k

Ah, cheers.

If there's been a restock or if one comes this week then we should know by next week's figures (anything over 7k would indicate at least one more shipment).

 

[Fafalada]

Furthermore, after two years I wonder how much more expensive is development on PS3 compared to 360.

If you look at average costs, 360 is most likely the most expensive platform because it leads vast majority of multiplatform games, hence gets larger teams and more $$$.

t3nmilezI guess we'll never know about PS3 development difficulties, but most devs seem to be in agreement that 360 is easier to work with, both Americans and Japanese.

It's irrelevant what's 'easier' to work with. PC is by far the hardest platform to develop on (especially if you develop mainstream titles), and it certainly isn't among the costliest when it comes to budgets. Granted, if PC got all the console titles, it probably would be, but that's besides the point.

 

[cvxfreak]

Last time I heard, 700k+ was shipped worldwide.

It will be hard for WKC to match that, unless it gets huge marketing as well.

That doesn't seem too difficult to do if SCEA pushed the game enough. Considering that the PS3 has few notable 3rd party exclusives, it'll be tapping into its first party lineup more than in the past.

It's still a bit of a mystery as to how LO got such low Japanese sales. I would have expected it to do at least 200K lifetime.

 

[SimpleDesign]

That doesn't seem too difficult to do if SCEA pushed the game enough. Considering that the PS3 has few notable 3rd party exclusives, it'll be tapping into its first party lineup more than in the past.

Sure they could do it, but why would they invest in marketing when it doesn't have huge potential?

The ROI is much greater for games like Killzone 2 or Grand Turismo 5, in terms of marking.

 

[SimpleDesign]

It's still a bit of a mystery as to how LO got such low Japanese sales. I would have expected it to do at least 200K lifetime.

The load times were totally fucked in the Japanese version, also the dialogue and lip sync was all done with Western audiences in mind. So the whole game is lip synced in English.

 

[PepsimanVsJoe]

When is WKC supposed to hit US/Europe?

Between the usual spots like ebgames.com and amazon I've come up with nothing.

 

[Vinnk]

I have seen ads for the game, but many games have ads in Japan. If you're saying that it received much more, then I can't disagree. Since I don't live in Japan and wouldn't know as much as you. Thanks for the correction.

Yes, significantly more ads. A surprising amount really since Sony marketing has been pretty bad lately. I wish they would have pushed LBP as much as WKC, but I guess cementing the PS3 as an RPG platform is pretty important for them. THough I did se a really cute LBP ad a few days ago. Really made the game look fun. But too little too late I guess.

 

[FrankT]

WKC hitting LO numbers, unlikley unless some surge in the EU. US will certainly not be pretty.

If it gets decent reviews in the west and good word of mouth perhaps possible.

 

[cvxfreak]

Sure they could do it, but why would they invest in marketing when it doesn't have huge potential?

The ROI is much greater for games like Killzone 2 or Grand Turismo 5, in terms of marking.

Let's hope SCEA is as ambitious as MS has been in Japan in terms of ROI.

In order to not sound totally negative about the 360 in Japan, I will say that it's a very worthwhile platform to develop for and serves as a good backup platform for extra sales. I'm not sure even the GC could claim to have been as good a backup platform as the 360. It's fanbase is nearing 1 Million every week, so it's totally worth releasing major Japanese titles for it. DMC4 may have only sold 55,000 on the Japanese 360, but that's still a nice amount to add to the PS3's 300K sales. An even better example is Call of Duty 4, which looks unremarkable on either the PS3 or 360 alone, but looks very good combined. I hope that the 360 FFXIII eventually does make it out there because of that (and the fact that SE's put 2/3 games on there exclusively already), and I'll be looking to see how much the 360 contributes to RE5's Japanese sales (if it can sell 70K, that's a solid number).

 

[Vinnk]

Ah, cheers.

If there's been a restock or if one comes this week then we should know by next week's figures (anything over 7k would indicate at least one more shipment).

It's in stock at all the stores in my town now. So I am sure another shipment has been sent out. If not, it wold be hard to find a copy now (7k all across Japan) but the game is still common. I wonder when the second shipment went out and how big it was.

 

[AbortedWalrusFetus]

Just out of curiosity, why is everyone so down on how WKC will perform in the west? Is there not a lot of hype for it or something? Or are you comparing it to LO and its massive advertising campaign? I would think that WKC will do fairly well in the west, but I guess a lot of that will depend on how well it's marketed.

 

[goompapa]

Last time I heard, 700k+ was shipped worldwide.

It will be hard for WKC to match that, unless it gets huge marketing as well.

Hard ?! When you are Sony you can bully those retailers to take 1 million+ orders. Shipping 1 million+ really is not a hard feat when you are a BIG publisher.

 

[spwolf]

Just out of curiosity, why is everyone so down on how WKC will perform in the west? Is there not a lot of hype for it or something? Or are you comparing it to LO and its massive advertising campaign? I would think that WKC will do fairly well in the west, but I guess a lot of that will depend on how well it's marketed.

because it did better than expected in Japan so they are compensating?

 

[BoilersFan23]

That doesn't seem too difficult to do if SCEA pushed the game enough. Considering that the PS3 has few notable 3rd party exclusives, it'll be tapping into its first party lineup more than in the past.

SCEA is known to push SCEA games much harder than games from SCEE/SCEJ though in terms of marketing and so on.

Things might change because a few people at the PS Blog (especially Jeff it seems) are big into RPGs and he even made a blog post about WKC. They might try convincing the top people at SCEA to push the game, but we'll see.

I'm really curious as to how long it will take WKC to come stateside. I personally feel it would be best to bring it over in late Spring or early Summer (when there normally isn't as many game releases) if possible (and not release it in the Fall).

 

[dolemite]

because it did better than expected in Japan so they are compensating?

And what were the expectation in Japan exactly?

 

[Frillen]

because it did better than expected in Japan so they are compensating?

Better than expected? Who expected it to sell less than 200k first week?

 

[HK-47]

i wonder why PS0 had such a poor opening... it was pretty heavily advertised. maybe the monster hunter-like game community just doesn't belong on the DS.

MH wasnt there to establish it. PSP just rode the aftereffects of a true megaseries

 

[Johann]

SCEA is known to push SCEA games much harder than games from SCEE/SCEJ though in terms of marketing and so on.

Things might change because a few people at the PS Blog (especially Jeff it seems) are big into RPGs and he even made a blog post about WKC. They might try convincing the top people at SCEA to push the game, but we'll see.

I'm really curious as to how long it will take WKC to come stateside. I personally feel it would be best to bring it over in late Spring or early Summer (when there normally isn't as many game releases) if possible (and not release it in the Fall).

SCEA pulled off all stops for Rogue Galaxy (new content, gameplay refinements, hefty localization featuring Will Friedle, and an pre-E3 press event centering on RG) but the game didn't end up selling well (the closest figures I have is that it sold less than 144,000 for its first two weeks). Even with the launch of two new consoles, PS2 game such as, Guitar Hero and FFXII, continued to sell well. I always figured that Level 5's new IP binge confused some of their fans and prevented them from migrating to one Level 5 game to another.

This US market hasn't been very nice to JRPGs on the HD twins, especially new IPs. God help them if their advertisements don't feature Jefferson Airplane.

 

[FINALFANTASYDOG]

Just for Fair comparison here as I pointed out in the other thread,

White Knight Chronicles is a 1000 yen cheaper then most other Next-gen games.

Also talking about price collapses: Boy that was quick LR down to 4500yen

 

[Paracelsus]

Better than expected? Who expected it to sell less than 200k first week?

You have no idea.

 

[BoilersFan23]

SCEA pulled off all stops for Rogue Galaxy (new content, gameplay refinements, hefty localization featuring Will Friedle, and an pre-E3 press event centering on RG) but the game didn't end up selling well (the closest figures I have is that it sold less than 144,000 for its first two weeks). Even with the launch of two new consoles, PS2 game such as, Guitar Hero and FFXII, continued to sell well. I always figured that Level 5's new IP binge confused some of their fans and prevented them from migrating to one Level 5 game to another.

This US market hasn't been very nice to JRPGs on the HD twins, especially new IPs. God help them if their advertisements don't feature Jefferson Airplane.

Yeah, I remember all the refinements made too. I also think what hurt it was not being too far off from FFXII (although it was a little over 2 months before), launch of PS3, and God of War II coming soon (which got the majority of push). I know I didn't buy RG right away because I figured Ar Tonelico was going to be hard to find (I bought that first) and I just bought a PS3. I still got the game.

Being a new IP might have confused some too. I think (but you never know) WKC should do a lot better in the states compared to other PS3 RPGs due to somewhat being the first more traditional RPG w/trophies (It's sad because while I feel VC is so good, I know many who refused to buy it because it had no trophies, and because it was an SRPG. They only wanted an action RPG or traditional turn based). We'll see what happens, but I think a lot will depend upon who SCEA treats it. Although I have a feeling it will be a while until Europe sees it, since most Level 5 games have gone from SCEJ -> SCEA -> SCEE.

 

[Frillen]

You have no idea.

Strange really, considering:

- It's made by Level 5
- The first real exclusive RPG for the PS3
- It has been highly anticipated for 2+(?) years now

Anything under 200k would've been a bomb in my opinion. I predict WKC to sell around 400k-450k LTD which will be a decent performance.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Just a quick note. We've discussed before how the 360 has never had a game finish the year in the Top 100 in Japan. The highest so far was Blue Dragon at #110 in 2006. So far in 2008, I see two games in the Top 100 for the 360 and another just outside.

64. Tales of Vesperia
82. Last Remnant
105. Infinite Undiscovery

Now, my data isn't complete, but I think we'll be seeing definitely one and probably two 360 games in the Top 100 for 2008. Congratulations, Microsoft!

I know those games did better than past Xbox/360 games, but is the barrier easier this year? With your current version of the top 100, how does #100 compare to last year's, which was 169K by Famitsu?

Pikmin - 48,000

This is perhaps looking too closely at things when there are only the two "Play on Wii" examples yet, but so far both have had a first week that did about 10% of the LTD of the originals.

15. [WII] Wii Music (Nintendo) - 53,000 / 324,000

Looks like my hope that it would bump up again like previous Nintendo October releases has held up.

PSP　120000
Wii　162000

Interesting how these two have gone back and forth the last few weeks.

Not sure what Konami expected from this (and it certainly isn't doing nearly as well as mainline titles) but if it can reack 100k (which it should), then that's not a bad showing at all.

Yeah, looks like it will fall in the big gap that currently exists between the lowest of the main titles and the best of the spinoffs/ports.

I have no doubt this game will reach 5 million.

Yeah, seeming surer. At the end of 2007 it was at 4.51 million, so this year has added about 0.34 million. If it can do half as well in 2009, it'll have it by the end of the year.

Better than expected? Who expected it to sell less than 200k first week?

By default I pretty much expect any PS3 game that's not part of a giant franchise to have a first week of under 200K. Before WKC the only two that did that well were DMC4 and MGS4.

 

[schuelma]

-Pretty decent for WKC. Now, if you would have predicted the sales two years ago before we knew what the PS3 userbase would be, I would have said the numbers were pretty disappointing, but given the small userbase and the Famitsu score that's a solid start.

-Any Japanese gafers know if Wii Music has been completely price collapsed? Impressive recovery, but I'm curious whether its been aided by bargain bin prices. In any event, if it can continue to sell a bit here and there it could still reach 500K LTD.


-Mario Kart Wii passes 2 million. Josh, how is it comparing to MK DS? Could it keep selling all next year and reach 3 million?


-Very curious about PSP and Wii hardware in 09. Wii looks to have basically caught up this last month (just speaking in terms of weekly sales, not YTD of course), but some of that is probably Nintendo systems usual holiday bump. Still, I'm wondering if PSP is going to languish in Wii territory next year while DSi is a clear step above.

- Taiko Drum Wii is already the #3 3rd party Wii game and should get #2 pretty quickly. Looks like it might meet Namco's expectations (400K I believe). Though the Type A part of me is still upset that the Famitsu leaker still has the LTD wrong. It's 236K dammit!! :lol