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[Lightning]

So the PS3 goes from GC level of failure to N64 level of failure? Makes sense since N64 was the beginning of Nintendo's downfall.

You don't know that! All I am saying is that the PS3 is going to beat the GC sales and crush these GC comparisons when all is said and done. There is just too many big games coming out for it that the GC didn't get late in it's life for the PS3 not to defeat the GC sales in Japan quite comfortably.

And it's not just FFXIII (I used that one because it's the biggest) but it's a combination of all the big titles still to be released.

Replace FFXIII with MGS4 and we're back in 2008.

How can a series that does only 800k in Japan be compared to FFXIII? In the US/Europe maybe, but not Japan...

 

[swerve]

Ye, maybe, i just thought maybe it would be possible to make 2 control schemes, one scheme that uses the current Wii control system and another control scheme that uses the Wii MotionPlus technoligy

That will be possible.

But how will that allow the game designers to take advantage of Motion +?

The game would still have to work perfectly with the regular Wii Remote.

 

[Regulus Tera]

How can a series that does only 800k in Japan be compared to FFXIII? In the US/Europe maybe, but not Japan...

It's because of the belief that one big title will suddenly spark a revolution, so to speak. Last year it was MGS; this year it is FFXIII. While Final Fantasy is the third biggest franchise in Japan (I don't doubt it will be PS3's first million-seller), I seriously cannot fathom the PS3 rising from GCN levels of mediocrity just because of one game. At most I'm expecting a sales spike bigger and a little bit more prolonged than the one MGS4 provoked last year, but that's not saying much, seeing the GCN and N64 also experienced such bumps when the big titles arrived.

 

[Lightning]

It's because of the belief that one big title will suddenly spark a revolution, so to speak. Last year it was MGS; this year it is FFXIII. While Final Fantasy is the third biggest franchise in Japan (I don't doubt it will be PS3's first million-seller), I seriously cannot fathom the PS3 rising from GCN levels of mediocrity just because of one game. At most I'm expecting a sales spike bigger and a little bit more prolonged than the one MGS4 provoked last year, but that's not saying much, seeing the GCN and N64 also experienced such bumps when the big titles arrived.

But like I said, it isn't just 1 big title and GC never had anything close to Versus XIII, FFXIII, GT5 releasing late in it's cycle like the PS3 has.

 

[Gaborn]

Is this year an indicator that Wii won't reach the same level of success as the PS2 in Japan? Can the Wii sell over 3 million in 2009 or was 2007 its peak?

Ask us after Monster Hunter 3, DQ10, and Wii Sports resort are released (probably in 2010 for some of those games, but still)

 

[schuelma]

But like I said, it isn't just 1 big title and GC never had anything close to Versus XIII, FFXIII, GT5 releasing late in it's cycle like the PS3 has.

We have no idea when Versus and GT5 will be out- I'll be surprised if they come in 2009.

 

[John Dunbar]

But like I said, it isn't just 1 big title and GC never had anything close to Versus XIII, FFXIII, GT5 releasing late in it's cycle like the PS3 has.

Final Fantasy XIII, its spin-off and a game that's not even confirmed for a 2009 release. Things are looking good for Sony.

 

[Stumpokapow]

The gamecube library only had Nintendo big releases, the PS3 has the advantage of 3rd parties as well.

"as well"

As well as what? As well as the amazing Sony first party support? hahahaahahah. The PS3 only has the occasional 3rd party title, no doubt about it.

The biggest games for the PS3 have not been released yet, and when they are it should boost the PS3 above comparisons to the GC.

Ignoring how stupid it is to say that the "biggest games" for anything have not been released yet (Who knows, really? People said Halo 3 would be the biggest game for the 360 worldwide, and it's virtually certain that the out-of-left-field Call of Duty 4 is bigger. Who knows if the 360 will ever have an RPG beat Blue Dragon or if that'll end up being number one. Who knows?), I disagree.

We can't predict the success of titles that haven't been announced yet or new IP, but needless to say there's virtually no chance that any new IP on the horizon for the PS3 (read: Quantum Theory, Demon's Souls... uh... that's just about it for Japanese-oriented games) will be the PS3's biggest game.

So we have to rely on titles that have been announced (FFXIII, Versus XIII, Yakuza 3, GT5) and old IP that could show up on the PS3. Sounds good to me. Let's go over every single title that's broken 500k and isn't a Nintendo title in the last decade. I bold the titles that could come to PS3 or could make a difference.

PS1, Million+
Dance Dance Revolution--3 Xbox installments, 2 Wii installments, 0 PS3 installments. Not likely to show up. No subsequent installment has done anywhere near a million. Not gonna change anything.
Tekken 2 / Tekken 3 -- Subsequent installments are down around 300k, T5DR is already on PS3, fighters are virtually dead, T6 is multiplat.
SaGa Frontier -- Subsequent installments all around 450k. TLR is spiritual successor to SaGa, and is 360-exclusive as far as we know so far.
Chocobo's Dungeon -- Subsequent installments are smaller, on Wii.
Dragon Quest IV / VII -- DS/Wii
Resident Evil / Resident Evil 2 / Resident Evil 3 -- Subsequent installments are a good deal lower, R5 is multiplat, Capcom's expectations are sufficiently low that they don't expect a million on PS3 in Japan.
Final Fantasy Tactics -- appears to be portable-only now, and there isn't a hope in hell than an SRPG would hit a million these days.
Gran Turismo 1 / 2 -- GT5 is on the way... maybe by the end of the year, maybe 2010
Derby Stallion -- not a chance any is going to hit a million, not a chance the sequel will be on PS3.
Hot Shots Golf - HSG5 already on PS3, did well but not that well.
Final Fantasy VII / VIII / IX -- FFXIII is on the way!

PS2, Million+

Onimusha 2 -- Franchise has declined, appears to be dead, would almost certainly be multiplat if it was resurrected (Capcom has done 0 PS3 exclusives and the only next-gen engine they have is multiplat)
Samurai Warriors / Dynasty Warriors 3 / Dynasty Warriors 4 -- tons of Musou on PS3. It does well, but not that well.
Winning Eleven 6 / 7 / 8 / 2007 -- everything-plat, series is not anywhere near that big anymore
Kingdom Hearts -- there are three installments of this game to be released before a console version, and it's pretty much unthinkable that Disney would allow SE to do it PS3 exclusive. In addition, the team is wrapped up on Versus.

PSP, Million+

Monster Hunter - Console installments don't seem to be as big as portables (alt hypothesis: franchise has grown). Two installments for Wii. This ain't coming to PS3.

DS, Million+

Love and Berry - wouldn't be as big done a second time, wouldn't be on PS3.

Grab Bag, 750k-1 mil

Parasite Eve - PSP, franchise deader, not likely to do these numbers again.
Densha de Go! - train games on literally every single platform, none are this big anymore.
PaRappa the Rapper - franchise dead, team on a Wii exclusive
BeatMania - franchise dead, would be multiplat
Crash Bandicoot - franchise dead, would be multiplat or Wii lead
Xenogears - franchise dead, spinoff franchise dead, most of development crew now part of Nintendo.
Devil Dice - franchise dead, only popular because of Yaroze, puzzle game, likely to be PSn if there was another one.
Tales of - franchise dead, 360/PSP/DS/PS2/Wii.
Arc the Lad - franchise dead.
Issho - already on PS3, for free.
Ridge Racer - multiplat-ish, franchise dead.
Simple Series - Wii/DS
Intelligent Qube - dead, would be PSN
Mega Man Battle Network - portable, dead.
Gundam - already on PS3 and everything else many times over
MGS - already on PS3, did very well, prospective owners now have PS3 hardware.
Some Shitty Pachislot game - Highly unlikely, wouldn't be on PS3 anyway.
PowerPro / Other Konami baseball titles - Smaller, every-plat.
Layton - Wouldn't be on PS3.

Grab Bag, 500k-750k

Street Fighter - multiplat, dead.
Ace Combat - 360.
One Piece - Wii.
Valkyrie Profile - dead, DS, wouldn't be PS3 if it was home console.
Monster Rancher - dead, DS, wouldn't be PS3 if it was home console.
Brave Fencer Musashi - dead.
Tobal - dead.
MomoDen - DS/PSP/Wii/PS2/360, dead.
Dino Crisis - dead, last installment was Xbox.
Chrono - dead.
Star Ocean - 360.
Mana - dead.
Taiko - Wii/DS.
DBZ - Every-plat, dead.
Yakuza - already on PS3, but I'll give you credit that Kenzan is a spinoff.
DMC - Already on PS3, multiplat, did well but not amazing.
Ratchet and Clank - Already on PS3.
Virtua Fighter - multiplat, dead.
Hot Shots Tennis - could show up on PS3
Phantasy Star Portable - PSP/DS, doubt it'd come to PS3, doubt it'd be big if it did come.
Rocket Company Kanji Training - lolollolol
Mega Man Star Force - handheld-only, wouldn't be on PS3.
IE Institute Kanji Training - lolololol
Ace Attorney - wouldn't come to consoles, if it did wouldn't be ps3, if it was wouldn't be big.

We're done. That's EVERY title since the GBA, not made by Nintendo, that hit at least 500k. The PS3 could possibly benefit from GT5, FFXIII, Versus XIII Hot Shots Tennis, and Yakuza 3.

So, in other words, your post boils down to:
... wait for GT5.
... wait for FFXIII.
... wait for Versus XIII.
... wait for Hot Shots Tennis.
... wait for Yakuza 3.
... and then there's nothing left to wait for.

Let's stop being silly. Maybe the PS3 will pass the Cube, maybe it won't, but it's not going to settle into a respectable installment in the Playstation family. Saying "its biggest games are yet to come" might be true, but it's a poor half-truth. The vast majority of big franchises have been exhausted at this point and the remaining megatons for PS3 are slim in number. Surprises might show up, but it's highly unlikely that as a company you'd announce a PS3-exclusive surprise. Why would you?

 

[Lightning]

I never said FFXIII was 2009, I said I can't wait for it to release so that it can end the GC comparisons.

Final Fantasy XIII, its spin-off and a game that's not even confirmed for a 2009 release. Things are looking good for Sony.

FFXIII is a spin-off? Bullshit...

 

[slayzz]

wow some of you guys have too much time. :lol

 

[Eteric Rice]

I never said FFXIII was 2009, I said I can't wait for it to release so that it can end the GC comparisons.

I think this is bothering you way to much.

 

[Flying_Phoenix]

Famitsu Sales Data

						Week 1    Week 2    Week 3     LTD
DC  Phantasy Star Online				80,666    18,687    20,141   185,364 
DC  Phantasy Star Online Ver.2		        108,411    13,358     7,534   167,345
GC  Phantasy Star Online Episode 1&2			71,241    13,679    10,995   138,277
GC  Phantasy Star Online Episode 1&2 Plus		18,869         -         -    18,869
GC  Phantasy Star Online Episode III Card Revolution	21,064         -         -    21,064 
PS2 Phantasy Star Universe			        129,155    23,962    12,669   188,961
PS2 Phantasy Star Universe: Illuminas no Yabou	24,141     6,565         -    30,706
PSP Phantasy Star Portable			        329,455   112,059    68,242   625,504
DS  Phantasy Star Zero				86,000    55,000             140,000

http://www.kyoto.zaq.ne.jp/dkbkq103/yso/maintitle5/sega.htm

So so far it's doing better then ALL OF THEM but the PSP version? Wow what a flop.

 

[Gaborn]

FFXIII is a spin-off? Bullshit...

I think you misread that. He was referring to Versus there (FFXIII, its spinoff)

 

[Stumpokapow]

I never said FFXIII was 2009, I said I can't wait for it to release so that it can end the GC comparisons.

Okay so basically your point was WAIT FOR FFXIII!!!11!!!!!11!!

FFXIII is a spin-off? Bullshit...

You didn't read his post correctly

wow some of you guys have too much time. :lol

the ten minutes it takes to copy/paste www.japan-gamecharts.com/ps2.php www.japan-gamecharts.com/ps1.php www.japan-gamecharts.com/psp.php www.japan-gamecharts.com/ds.php and comment on the top entries is not really that much more time than it takes to write "WAIT FOR FFXIII PS3 IS GONNA DOMINATE DA CUBE!!!"

 

[Lightning]

I think you misread that. He was referring to Versus there (FFXIII, its spinoff)

According to Square Enix, it's not a spin off, besides it is a AAA development team and that's what counts but yes, I didn't quite catch the comma meaning he was referring to Versus.

 

[AniHawk]

What the hell was Sega thinking when they decided to make a Gamecube-exclusive online spinoff/sequel/expansion pack of Phantasy Star Online?

 

[TJ Spyke]

What the hell was Sega thinking when they decided to make a Gamecube-exclusive online spinoff/sequel/expansion pack of Phantasy Star Online?

Weren't Sega's 2 best selling console games last gen Sonic Adventure DX: Director's Cut and Sonic Adventure 2: Battle? I guess that's why.

 

[RpgN]

So so far it's doing better then ALL OF THEM but the PSP version? Wow what a flop.

Nobody said its sales were a flop, but more disappointing. Coming after the psp version, it was obviously made with care and Sega had higher expectations given their first shipment. Its second week did perform pretty well, so it might become one of those leg games.

Again, 150k is good for a ds game. Say if DQ sold that much it would have been huge disappointment (Of course PS games are nowhere near DQ, but I'm just explaining how some and me are coming from),

 

[jeremy1456]

You don't know that! All I am saying is that the PS3 is going to beat the GC sales and crush these GC comparisons when all is said and done. There is just too many big games coming out for it that the GC didn't get late in it's life for the PS3 not to defeat the GC sales in Japan quite comfortably.

And it's not just FFXIII (I used that one because it's the biggest) but it's a combination of all the big titles still to be released.


How can a series that does only 800k in Japan be compared to FFXIII? In the US/Europe maybe, but not Japan...

Wait for '________'

(insert one of the following)

Virtua Fighter 5
Gundam Musou
Minna no Golf
Metal Gear Solid 4
White Knight Chronicles

The argument is getting old. FFXIII will temporarily bolster sales, and so will versus, but the PS3 is already on a downward spiral. I would be pretty surprised if it beat the GC when all is said and done.

 

[BishopLamont]

You don't know that! All I am saying is that the PS3 is going to beat the GC sales and crush these GC comparisons when all is said and done. There is just too many big games coming out for it that the GC didn't get late in it's life for the PS3 not to defeat the GC sales in Japan quite comfortably.

Well the N64 sold a little over 5 Million and you did say that's what you expect the PS3 to do. So N64 levels of failure seem about right yes?

 

[Sage00]

Okay so basically your point was WAIT FOR FFXIII!!!11!!!!!11!!

How can you possibly compare that to "Wait for Resident Evil", "Wait for Tales", "Wait for Zelda", etc?

Did FF7 not turn the tide of the console war? Did Crisis Core not play a vital role in reviving PSP, and Dissidia in extending it? And there's a huge difference between spin offs and main series entries.

It's not going to bring it into contention for any prizes, but it has a very real possibility of giving PS3 the opportunity to put up decent to great numbers, ala PSP to DS, even if it's final position has been set. Provided Sony make relevant hardware adjustments and have a few titles to keep momentum.

 

[HK-47]

Weren't Sega's 2 best selling console games last gen Sonic Adventure DX: Director's Cut and Sonic Adventure 2: Battle? I guess that's why.

Thats poor reasoning

 

[Link]

How can you possibly compare that to "Wait for Resident Evil", "Wait for Tales", "Wait for Zelda", etc?

Did FF7 not turn the tide of the console war? Did Crisis Core not play a vital role in reviving PSP, and Dissidia in extending it? And there's a huge difference between spin offs and main series entries.

It's not going to bring it into contention for any prizes, but it has a very real possibility of giving PS3 the opportunity to put up decent to great numbers, ala PSP to DS, even if it's final position has been set. Provided Sony make relevant hardware adjustments and have a few titles to keep momentum.

Are you really comparing FFXIII and the PS3 to FFVII and the PS1? You really see those as similar situations?

 

[Sage00]

Are you really comparing FFXIII and the PS3 to FFVII and the PS1? You really see those as similar situations?

No, did you read the post? I placed it somewhere in between FFVII and Crisis Core. Since it's a main series title unlike CC, however it's not possible for it to push the console into first like FF7 did purely because of PS3's situation, which is much more comparable to PSP(at it's worst).

 

[jeremy1456]

How can you possibly compare that to "Wait for Resident Evil", "Wait for Tales", "Wait for Zelda", etc?

Did FF7 not turn the tide of the console war? Did Crisis Core not play a vital role in reviving PSP, and Dissidia in extending it? And there's a huge difference between spin offs and main series entries.

It's not going to bring it into contention for any prizes, but it has a very real possibility of giving PS3 the opportunity to put up decent to great numbers, ala PSP to DS, even if it's final position has been set. Provided Sony make relevant hardware adjustments and have a few titles to keep momentum.

The thing you don't seem to understand is that Final Fantasy games have always been extremely front loaded - they tend to only remain on the charts for a few weeks. It's not like Wii Fit which is still on the charts (and probably will continue to be for quite some time) even though it was released nearly a year ago.

FF games tend to sell anywhere from 2 - 2.5 million copies on big userbases and consoles with big sales momentum. I'm curious what it will pull in on the PS3.

 

[Gaborn]

Thats poor reasoning

And Sega is of course famous for sound business decisions.

 

[Fredescu]

wow some of you guys have too much time. :lol

If you don't like to see people put effort into posts, then politely stay the fuck out of sales threads.

The argument is getting old. FFXIII will temporarily bolster sales, and so will versus, but the PS3 is already on a downward spiral.

Really? There will be a large group of people who didn't get a PS3 for FFXIII, or anything else before it, but will for Versus?

 

[Sage00]

The thing you don't seem to understand is that Final Fantasy games have always been extremely front loaded - they tend to only remain on the charts for a few weeks. It's not like Wii Fit which is still on the charts (and probably will continue to be for quite some time) even though it was released nearly a year ago.

FF games tend to sell anywhere from 2 - 2.5 million copies on big userbases and consoles with a lot of momentum. I'm curious what it will pull in on the PS3.

They're front-loaded because of the used market, no? We have no idea how much RPGs are really selling. It's about the mindshare of having that title on the console. Tales of Vesperia, Infinite Undiscovery and The Last Remnant may not have legs, but their effect on 360's hardware sales has been long lasting.

 

[jeremy1456]

If you don't like to see people put effort into posts, then politely stay the fuck out of sales threads.


Really? There will be a large group of people who didn't get a PS3 for FFXIII, or anything else before it, but will for Versus?

I'm giving the benefit of the doubt here.

I've got a theory that half the Final Fantasy fanbase already owns a PS3 anyway.

 

[Dizzan]

Not following the thread but I see PS3 sales skyrocketing one day. Probably when it hits the equivalent of $199.

 

[jeremy1456]

They're front-loaded because of the used market, no? We have no idea how much RPGs are really selling. It's about the mindshare of having that title on the console. Tales of Vesperia, Infinite Undiscovery and The Last Remnant may not have legs, but their effect on 360's hardware sales has been long lasting.

That's the thing - we've got no idea about used sales so it can't really be used in an argument. I personally think the used market has little to do with the front loaded nature, that's like saying 'Mario Galaxy is still selling well but you can't see it because everyone is buying only used copies'

The effect of Tales of Vesperia, Infinite Undiscovery, and the Last Remnant has probably run out by now - it's a little thing we like to call Christmas/New Year that's keeping the 360's sales up.

 

[Regulus Tera]

How can you possibly compare that to "Wait for Resident Evil", "Wait for Tales", "Wait for Zelda", etc?

Did FF7 not turn the tide of the console war?

The N64 was already condemned when FFVII came out.

Did Crisis Core not play a vital role in reviving PSP

Actually, no? Monster Hunter did that.

and Dissidia in extending it?

Have you been following sales numbers? Dissidia did not provoke any sort of sales spike for the hardware different from the usual holiday bump.

 

[HK-47]

And Sega is of course famous for sound business decisions.

Exactly

 

[jeremy1456]

Not following the thread but I see PS3 sales skyrocketing one day. Probably when it hits the equivalent of $199.

I see sales skyrocketing the month FFXIII comes out.

Then business as usual a month later.

 

[Jokeropia]

Not following the thread but I see PS3 sales skyrocketing one day. Probably when it hits the equivalent of $199.

:lol

 

[Stumpokapow]

Did FF7 not turn the tide of the console war?

Err, no?

No, it didn't.

The PS1 won because of an absolute onslaught of software from every publisher across the board. If you want to give FF7 credit, you'd have to assume that people bought large quantities of PS1s in anticipation of FF7--in which case, your analogy to the PS3 fails because... uh... well, people aren't anticipating FF13 I guess?

Did Crisis Core not play a vital role in reviving PSP,

Err, no?

No, it didn't.

(PS2 provided by comparison to show that the PSP did quite well on a weekly basis and decently compared to PS2 on a lifetime basis, and for scale, and to show the Crisis Core bump)

and Dissidia in extending it?

Weeks not added to garaph:

- DS 245k, 230k,
- PSP 118k, 157k.

And, so you can compare to last year to see Dissidia's impact relative to the annual Christmas bump:

If your point is that Final Fantasy is a big franchise, no shit. My point is that the PS3 has already gotten dozens of big franchises, it hasn't magically risen to heaven, and beyond the current "Wait for <x>", there's nothing left to wait for.

It's not going to bring it into contention for any prizes, but it has a very real possibility of giving PS3 the opportunity to put up decent to great numbers, ala PSP to DS, even if it's final position has been set.

It's not going to be in contention for prizes--but it's going to range from slightly below the PS2 to well above the PS2? Holy shit, if the PS3 ends up even in that ballpark it'd be in contention for A James Randi Million Dollar Challenge

Provided Sony make relevant hardware adjustments and have a few titles to keep momentum.

It's time to time travel to October 2003 (2 years, 1 month after GameCube launch).

If Nintendo makes relevant hardware adjustments and has a few titles to keep momentum, it could sustain next summer's Paper Mario 2 bump forever and possibly even get into GBA territory!!!! This could be a game-changer!

 

[Sage00]

The N64 was already condemned when FFVII came out.

If N64 had FF7 and all it's momentum things would have been very different. PS1 would've still come out on top in all likelihood, but the strength of that game worldwide was one of the greatest of all time.

Actually, no? Monster Hunter did that.

Monster Hunter did not single handedly revive PSP, even though it played the most major part. The PSP-2000/Crisis Core launch started it all.

Have you been following sales numbers? Dissidia did not provoke any sort of sales spike for the hardware different from the usual holiday bump.

Large sales spikes are unhealthy. Continued, constant sales at a reasonable level are the ideal situation. Games like Dissidia, Phantasy Star, or Gundam provide that for PSP. Without them, it would slide back down to negligible numbers like PS3 did after MGS, after HSG, after Gundam Musou.

 

[Stumpokapow]

If N64 had FF7 and all it's momentum things would have been very different. PS1 would've still come out on top in all likelihood, but the strength of that game worldwide was one of the greatest of all time.

This is just ridiculous. Yes, in some alternate universe where the N64 wasn't an utter failure on every level imaginable, it would not be an utter failure on every level imaginable. Software->Hardware is synergistic. The N64 only would have gotten FF7 if it had been more developer friendly, have a better royalty scheme, had done better near the beginning of its lifespan, if Nintendo hadn't fought with Square... and at this point you're so divergent from reality you're just inventing stuff out of thin air.

There are ZERO cases of a piece of hardware being substantially impacted by one game.

Monster Hunter did not single handedly revive PSP, even though it played the most major part. The PSP-2000/Crisis Core launch started it all.

wrong

Large sales spikes are unhealthy. Continued, constant sales at a reasonable level are the ideal situation. Games like Dissidia, Phantasy Star, or Gundam provide that for PSP.

You're comparing apples and oranges. The PSP was doing just fine in terms of hardware and has been for ages. That's why software is being Greenlit. The PS3 is doing just terrible in terms of hardware and has been for ages. That's why software is not being Greenlit.

 

[Regulus Tera]

If N64 had FF7 and all it's momentum things would have been very different. PS1 would've still come out on top in all likelihood, but the strength of that game worldwide was one of the greatest of all time.

If Square had decided to side with Nintendo for some godforsaken reason the other third parties would not have followed, thereby not pulling the N64 from the abyss of sales-mediocrity it had buried itself in after choosing the cartridge format.

Monster Hunter did not single handedly revive PSP, even though it played the most major part. The PSP-2000/Crisis Core launch started it all.

I think we have to look at Crisis Core's numbers here. How quickly did it disappear from the charts?

 

[Fredescu]

Monster Hunter did not single handedly revive PSP, even though it played the most major part. The PSP-2000/Crisis Core launch started it all.

What? It started well before Crisis Core.

 

[Sage00]

If Square had decided to side with Nintendo for some godforsaken reason the other third parties would not have followed, thereby not pulling the N64 from the abyss of sales-mediocrity it had buried itself in after choosing the cartridge format.

And this generation is not a comparable situation, no PS1 or PS2 has emerged, there is no publishers' platform. Or, at least, one has yet to emerge. This makes single games all the more important - for everyone to follow, someone has to start it.

I think we have to look at Crisis Core's numbers here. How quickly did it disappear from the charts?

Well, we're talking about it's impact on hardware here. Crisis Core is an RPG, of course it's going to disappear within a couple of weeks.

 

[Stumpokapow]

And this generation is not a comparable situation, no PS1 or PS2 has emerged, there is no publishers' platform.

lol ds lol

Or, at least, one has yet to emerge. This makes single games all the more important - for everyone to follow, someone has to start it.

this is a ridiculous departure from your initial point which was soundly defeated

Well, we're talking about it's impact on hardware here. Crisis Core is an RPG, of course it's going to disappear within a couple of weeks.

thank you for reading my post

 

[jeremy1456]

And this generation is not a comparable situation, no PS1 or PS2 has emerged, there is no publishers' platform. Or, at least, one has yet to emerge. This makes single games all the more important - for everyone to follow, someone has to start it.

I can easily see Dragon Quest X being the start.

 

[jeremy1456]

There are ZERO cases of a piece of hardware being substantially impacted by one game.

You, my friend are wrong.

Super Mario Bros., Mario 64.

 

[Stumpokapow]

You, my friend are wrong.

Super Mario Bros., Mario 64.

the nes has literally zero competition in japan and the n64 went on to be a disaster of epic proportions so unless you're talking about something different than me (impact of a single software title on a hardware's competitive ability--ie "turning the tide") i'm not wrong.

 

[Sage00]

Err, no?

No, it didn't.

The PS1 won because of an absolute onslaught of software from every publisher across the board. If you want to give FF7 credit, you'd have to assume that people bought large quantities of PS1s in anticipation of FF7--in which case, your analogy to the PS3 fails because... uh... well, people aren't anticipating FF13 I guess?

Despite the fact that it had a 2mln lead which is by no means an overturnable figure by FF7's launch, there is a large difference here.

FF7 was announced midway into PS1's cycle (along with DQ), and the announcement largely affected publisher decisions (especially the Saturn RPG devs like Atlus I believe?). Games don't just push hardware, they set examples that x number can be done on x platform. If x number can be done by a big title, y number can be hit by a mid-level title, and z by a low level title. X, Y and Z all increase as X does. If FF13 becomes the best selling third party title this gen by a wide margin (a title it will easily take, MGS narrowly holds it over DQS and is likely equalled out for now by dev costs) you don't think publishers will take notice?

Err, no?

No, it didn't.

(PS2 provided by comparison to show that the PSP did quite well on a weekly basis and decently compared to PS2 on a lifetime basis, and for scale, and to show the Crisis Core bump)

Weeks not added to garaph:

- DS 245k, 230k,
- PSP 118k, 157k.

Thanks for proving my point? I'm not sure what you're saying, that it's bump was noticible but didn't push it too far above PS2, one of the best selling consoles of all time? It hit a ceiling (a ceiling broken by DS' non-gaming-media-audience appeal popularity).

The fact that the levels before and the levels after not massively different are not very relevant when you take into account it hit it's highest possible point. All this shows is that PS3 has more to gain. Actually, perhaps there's a ceiling for it's price point, which is possible to remove.

And, so you can compare to last year to see Dissidia's impact relative to the annual Christmas bump:

If your point is that Final Fantasy is a big franchise, no shit. My point is that the PS3 has already gotten dozens of big franchises, it hasn't magically risen to heaven, and beyond the current "Wait for <x>", there's nothing left to wait for.

Nothing as big as FF.

It's not going to be in contention for prizes--but it's going to range from slightly below the PS2 to well above the PS2? Holy shit, if the PS3 ends up even in that ballpark it'd be in contention for A James Randi Million Dollar Challenge

There is no PS2 audience on consoles, so no consoles will hit PS2 numbers. Wii has the HSG crowd and PS3 has the ability to take the MGS DMC crowd. But it can do a lot better than it has been now.

It's time to time travel to October 2003 (2 years, 1 month after GameCube launch).

If Nintendo makes relevant hardware adjustments and has a few titles to keep momentum, it could sustain next summer's Paper Mario 2 bump forever and possibly even get into GBA territory!!!! This could be a game-changer!

GCN launched at a significantly lower price than it's competition.
PS3 launched at a significantly higher price than it's competition.

Couple that with the fact that as PS3 becomes less expensive it becomes more viable as a Blu-Ray player (which, in Japan, several anime Blu-Rays like Macross have been putting up better figures than the DVDs) and the situation is not comparable in the slightest.

 

[jeremy1456]

the nes has literally zero competition in japan and the n64 went on to be a disaster of epic proportions so unless you're talking about something different than me (impact of a single software title on a hardware's competitive ability--ie "turning the tide") i'm not wrong.

N64 started out selling very well, and Mario 64 was the ONLY game out for it.

So what if the Famicom didn't have competition? Any monkey can add a condition to their statement after the fact, but it still doesn't change the fact that what you said is wrong.

EDIT: And before you say that I didn't read your post please read your initial statement again. Substantial effect on hardware sales - which has nothing to do with competition at all. You just keep altering your initial argument.

 

[HK-47]

N64 started out selling very well, and Mario 64 was the ONLY game out for it.

So what if the Famicom didn't have competition? Any monkey can add a condition to their statement after the fact, but it still doesn't change the fact that what you said is wrong.

EDIT: And before you say that I didn't read your post please read your initial statement again. Substantial effect on hardware sales - which has nothing to do with competition at all. You just keep altering your initial argument.

Wouldnt that include MHP2G as well. It kept the PSP at its 2000 levels for a while.

 

[TJ Spyke]

the nes has literally zero competition in japan and the n64 went on to be a disaster of epic proportions so unless you're talking about something different than me (impact of a single software title on a hardware's competitive ability--ie "turning the tide") i'm not wrong.

I know the Master System bombed, but it was still technically competition (even if it did only get like a 5% marketshare in Japan).

 

[Stumpokapow]

FF7 was announced midway into PS1's cycle (along with DQ), and the announcement largely affected publisher decisions (especially the Saturn RPG devs like Atlus I believe?).

Okay, awesome. Games that are announced can potentially encourage other publishers to jump on board. I agree. I'll accept your logic--FF7 being announced encouraged publishers to jump on to the PS1.

Now, your original point was that FF7S1 sorta :: FF13S3. So we should be seeing a rush of PS3 announcements because of FF13 being announced in 2005?

Games don't just push hardware, they set examples that x number can be done on x platform. If x number can be done by a big title, y number can be hit by a mid-level title, and z by a low level title. X, Y and Z all increase as X does.

Err, I don't accept this at all. I accept that as a publisher, if you're putting out a b-tier title, positive encouraging a-tier sales help give you bounds--but if I'm a publisher, do I look at FFXIII's sales (assume it's amazing, say 2 million), or do I look at the actual dozens of titles comparable to mine that don't reflect these sales and show a basic "ceiling" for even a-tier titles around 300-350k, where only a handful have broke?

In other words, if you have hundreds of current software titles to use as a model, why would you cherry pick literally one--the single shining brightest example--as the one to follow?

Would one say "Wii Sports did 3 million, and my knockoff sports game is b-tier, so I can do 2 million?" Of course not!

If FF13 becomes the best selling third party title this gen by a wide margin (a title it will easily take, MGS narrowly holds it over DQS and is likely equalled out for now by dev costs) you don't think publishers will take notice?

FF13 could range from an abysmal failure to a megaton success and it'd still take that title. It's impossible for it to not take that title. What publishers will notice is the extent to which it takes that title as a result of being FF13 versus as a result of it being on PS3, and I think publishers will conclude that it will have succeeded in spite of being on PS3, not because of.

Thanks for proving my point? I'm not sure what you're saying, that it's bump was noticible but didn't push it too far above PS2, one of the best selling consoles of all time? It hit a ceiling (a ceiling broken by DS' non-gaming-media-audience appeal popularity).

My point is that the PSP had been doing WELL for quite some time, and Crisis Core provided a bump. Your claim that Crisis Core rescued the PSP is silly--it rescued the PSP from doing pretty well by making it do slightly better for a short time?

The fact that the levels before and the levels after not massively different are not very relevant when you take into account it hit it's highest possible point.

You mean by "Crisis Core rescued the PS3", you meant "Crisis Core launching at the same time as the PSP Slim caused a large hardware bump that mostly faded afterwards and you can't separate the two factors"? Okay, I agree, certainly.

FFXIII will absolutely cause the PS3 to spike. But no one is arguing it won't. They're arguing it won't change the PS3's fortunes, and Crisis Core as an analogy doesn't change that.

All this shows is that PS3 has more to gain.

I read Freakonomics as well, but it doesn't mean that "Doing bad secretly means good things" becomes an assertion that stands without actual evidence.

There is no PS2 audience on consoles, so no consoles will hit PS2 numbers. Wii has the HSG crowd and PS3 has the ability to take the MGS DMC crowd. But it can do a lot better than it has been now.

Why are you separating consoles from handhelds?

You: There is no new PS2.
Me: It's the DS.
You: It doesn't count.

I'm not saying the gaming market is zero sum, but it's not infinitely flexible either. All consoles are competing, the DS is the successor to the PS2. Just because this is connected to an associated shift from console to portable doesn't mean there's a massive console void waiting to be filled by the magical prayers of Nomura fans.

GCN launched at a significantly lower price than it's competition.
PS3 launched at a significantly higher price than it's competition.

Wow, amazing logic. Except for the fact that a) Everyone else can price cut as well, so if the PS3 ever did pick up at the expense of others, there's no reason to believe that systems that are successful without a price drop can't compete with a system that needs a price cut to be successful.

Also note how the last PS3 price drop did.

Also this is getting dangerously close to "10 year plan! Sony can drop the prices in 2016 and deliver the knockout blow!" lunacy.

Couple that with the fact that as PS3 becomes less expensive it becomes more viable as a Blu-Ray player (which, in Japan, several anime Blu-Rays like Macross have been putting up better figures than the DVDs) and the situation is not comparable in the slightest.

hahahahahaha

really

"Wait for Blu-Ray!!!"

Well, for one, Blu-Ray players of comparable quality to the PS3 are now around the same price as the PS3, and will be substantially lower by the time FFXIII is released or Sony is ready to drop the price.

Are you seriously arguing that the PS3 has a better shot at longevity than the Cube because Blu-Ray could magically start to deliver 3 years into its lifespan!?

N64 started out selling very well, and Mario 64 was the ONLY game out for it.

So what if the Famicom didn't have competition? Any monkey can add a condition to their statement after the fact, but it still doesn't change the fact that what you said is wrong.

EDIT: And before you say that I didn't read your post please read your initial statement again. Substantial effect on hardware sales - which has nothing to do with competition at all. You just keep altering your initial argument.

Okay, you literally correctly read the exact sentence I wrote.

But when you contextualize that sentence into the lengthy argument I was making about FF13's ability to cause the PS3 to pick up versus the Wii, FF7's ability to turn the tide in the PS1-N64 war, and Crisis Core's ability to save the PSP, you realize that the quid pro quos you're accusing me of adding afterwards were there all along.

I apologize that I did not specify that those two one-line conclusions were linked to the big post around them, rather than meant to be all-encompassing generalizations.

I do not believe either SMB or M64 (or Wii Sports) could be used to generate a comparison to FF13 and the PS3. I don't believe any game can. I don't believe any game ever supports the arguments being made about FF13 and the PS3.