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[pgtl_10]

Echoes did about half of Prime's numbers (

Spoiler

deservedly so, in my opinion

). I'm incredibly stoked for Prime 3's control scheme, though, so I hope it delivers and blows Prime's numbers away.



Then Microsoft is Mission Accomplished. The Xbox division should be profitable in FY08, they prevented Sony from taking over the Living Room, and they've established themselves with a consistent seller in the video game world. While Microsoft certainly wouldn't mind being #1 this generation, I don't think that was a requirement for them to be "successful."



360 sales are typically about 1/2 of the U.S., which happens to fit in with our guesstimates for the LTD in PAL. ~2.7 million.

The Wii shipped 1.54 million to "Other" (IIRC) by the end of March. It's safe to assume it all sold. Japan and the U.S. both sold ~360K in April, so it's not too much of a stretch to assume the same amount for Europe. That would put it at 1.9 million at the end of April.

Thanks

What is the estimated worlwide sales for Wii?

 

[Tf53]

360 - ~8.5 million
WII - ~6.8 million

Assuming this estimate is close, I'd say the Wii will overtake the 360 in two months or less.

 

[D.Lo]

Thanks

What is the estimated worlwide sales for Wii?

We can extrapolate based on previous histoy.

Here were Nintendo's official 'shipped to retailers' Figures to the end of March

Japan 2,000,000
US 2,370,000
Other 1,470,000 (Europe/Australia etc)

And here's what we know sales were to the end of March

Japan 1,961,718 (Media Create) (98% of shipped)

US 2,110,000 (NPD) (89% of shipped)

EDIT: forgot Canada at about 128k (estimated 8% of US sales, see below)

NA 2238000 (NPD US+Canada) (94% of shipped)

-Japan is now up to 2,476,552 sold to the end of last week.

-US is now up to 2,470,000 to the end of April. We're almost at the end of May, so based on sales staying steady for last month, we could add another 240,000 to the Wii for the US to the end of last week (April's 360k*3/4), for a total of 2,710,000.

EDIT: I can't get Canadian data for November, but it appears (based on Dec, Jan and Feb) Canada is pretty consistently 8% of the US Wii numbers, except April when it went up to 42k. Adding 31k for May so far (April*3/4) gives a NA total of 2,911,500 to the end of last week.

So this theoretical US+Canada+Japan sales figure to the end of last week is 5,388,052., 123.3% of Nintendo's 'shipped to March' Figure for the territories combined.

Applying the same ratio to 'Other' shipped to March of 1,470,000, we get a theoretical figure of 1,808,100 sold in Other as of last week.

Grand total: 7,196,152 Sold worldwide

A Pretty Good Approximation IMO.

------------------------------
Could also be higher, Europe reportedly got more stock in the last two months. And based on April's shipments to US and Japan of 360k apiece, if production really has gone up to at least 1.2 million/month after March, then we could be looking at 7.5+ million sold at this point.

EDIT: I forgot about Canada being part of NA, numbers are now fixed.

 

[Kafel]

Assuming this estimate is close, I'd say the Wii will overtake the 360 in two months or less.

Even if it's close, it will take more than 2 months.

By the way, the 1st at 10 millions still wins ?

 

[Innotech]

We can extrapolate based on previous histoy.

Here were Nintendo's official 'shipped to retailers' Figures to the end of March

Japan 2,000,000
US 2,370,000
Other 1,470,000 (Europe/Australia etc)

And here's what we know sales were to the end of March

Japan 1,961,718 (Media Create) (98% of shipped)

US 2,110,000 (NPD) (89% of shipped)

-Japan is now up to 2,476,552 sold to the end of last week.

-US is now up to 2,470,000 to the end of April. We're almost at the end of May, so based on sales staying steady for last month, we could add another 240,000 to the Wii for the US to the end of last week (April's 360k*3/4), for a total of 2,710,000.

So this theoretical US+Japan sales figure to the end of last week is 5,186,552., 118.6% of Nintendo's 'shipped to March' Figure for both territories combined.

Applying the same ratio to 'Other' shipped to March of 1,470,000, we get a theoretical figure of 1,744,675 sold in Other as of last week.

Grand total: 6,931,197 Sold worldwide

A Pretty Good Approximation IMO.

------------------------------
Could also be higher, Europe reportedly got more stock in the last two months. And based on April's shipments to US and Japan of 360k apiece, if production really has gone up to at least 1.2 million/month after March, then we could be looking at 7.5+ million sold at this point.

that is a pretty good guesstimate. I agree.
It should be right around 7m as of now.

 

[Rancid Mildew]

It looks like the Wii will match the 360 by September at least. It will be interesting to see who wins the holiday season with all those huge games coming out.

 

[1-D_FTW]

Even if it's close, it will take more than 2 months.

By the way, the 1st at 10 millions still wins ?

I think it was an error in analysis. MS incorrectly interpreted quickest to 10 million (months on market) with first to 10 million.

 

[D.Lo]

Even if it's close, it will take more than 2 months.

By the way, the 1st at 10 millions still wins ?

Read this post. Current totals are 4,946,522 (Wii) vs 5,763,383 (360) for US+Japan.

Based on Current sales rates, the Wii will surpass the 360 in June for USA+Japan. And that's only if Wii production doesn't go up AT ALL.

So it all comes down to Europe. If someone had MS's shipped data we could extrapolate the % difference between what they've shipped and sold in the US, and use that to guess a figure for Europe.

It's not quite unanimous, but by now most of us here would agree that the release of the Wii ended Sony's Japanese console domination. For purposes of demarcation, though, when do we say it began? Unlike PS2 or Wii, PS1 didn't shoot off right from launch; for its first few years it was going against a similarly-successful Sega Saturn and a still-relevant Super Famicom. Perhaps the release of Final Fantasy VII marks the starting point? Possibly some time shortly before, when it was clear which way the wind was blowing? Without a source of direct data from the time it makes the issue a bit more difficult.

1997-2006 is a nice round 10 year block.

 

[Tf53]

Even if it's close, it will take more than 2 months.

By the way, the 1st at 10 millions still wins ?

If the difference is 1,7M and Nintendo manufactures 1,5M Wiis a month (and sell them all), MS would have to sell 1,3M+ 360's in 2 months for it to not happen. That's 650k in both May and June. You honestly think they will?

 

[starship]

360 - ~8.5 million
WII - ~6.8 million

I don't agree with your 360 number. Its sales in NA was higher than 5.75m (350k Canada) at the end of April so even if we use your guesstimate of 2.7m for pal territories, the total would be 8.8m by the end of April.

Here is my guess (worldwide at the end of April):
360 ~ 9m
Wii ~ 6.7m

 

[donny2112]

Here is my guess (worldwide at the end of April):
360 ~ 9m
Wii ~ 6.7m

I wouldn't say 9 million for the 360 worldwide by the end of April. Maybe by the end of May. It's not much of a difference either way, though. "~" for the win! :lol

 

[thestopsign]

Congrats Vinnk...

I'm one step behind you, I just got my first girlfriend (I'm in highschool though). Now at least I know I can get a girl if I want too.

 

[Zynx]

Congratulations, Viink!

 

[D.Lo]

I made the mistake of forgetting Canada from the North American figure, and since I was using the 'shipped to NA' figures to estimate the total for Europe, it affected the total dramatically.

My new estimate is 7,196,152 Wii sold worldwide to the end of last week (formula in post #903).

 

[Odysseus]

guys guys guys

microsoft already won. it was the first to ship 10 million, and that's what they've done. not only that, but they've shipped those 10 million twice due to the failure rates. they're way out front. the race was over at 10 million, anyway, so nothing else matters.

wii is just going to have to settle for second.

 

[Moor-Angol]

Wii could surpass 360 this summer, the problem is...

when Halo 3 arrives in September, 360 sales will explode (in US i mean)

 

[Xeke]

Wii could surpass 360 this summer, the problem is...

when Halo 3 arrives in September, 360 sales will explode (in US i mean)

But will they really? I think that remains to be seen. I think much of the Halo demographic already owns a 360 that they bought either in anticipation of the game or for say Gears and Dead Rising.

 

[Odysseus]

Wii could surpass 360 this summer, the problem is...

when Halo 3 arrives in September, 360 sales will explode (in US i mean)

sales don't explode for a $400 console. there will have to be a price drop.

i can see a relatively minor bump and that's about it. overall, i expect 360's september-december numbers to be relatively flat year over year, maybe a slight increase, but no more than 2.1-2.2 million total. i don't think 360 outsells wii in september or october (still halo 3, gta iv) unless something drastic happens to nintendo's supply line.

this is all subject to change based on price drops and summer sales patterns, of course.

 

[D.Lo]

Wii could surpass 360 this summer, the problem is...

when Halo 3 arrives in September, 360 sales will explode (in US i mean)

The Wii gained 529,940 on the 360 in April in US+Japan combined. Wii production will almost certainly be up to 1.5 million a month by then. And many Halo customers already bought a 360.

I bet the Wii easily beats the 360 in September alone worldwide.

 

[Speevy]

But will they really? I think that remains to be seen. I think much of the Halo demographic already owns a 360 that they bought either in anticipation of the game or for say Gears and Dead Rising.

Well, there's certainly better reasons to buy a PS3 or 360 this Fall than there is to buy a Wii.

(in terms of sheer quantity of awesome games)

 

[Phife Dawg]

I don't understand how Forza sells so poor (compared to GT) and GT sells millions and millions, and not only in Japan, people don't like damage or what?

PS: And I have GT, GT2 and GT4, and never had a Xbox, but come on, Forza is as good as GT imo.

Well GT is an established brand, pretty much everybody knows about it. Forza 2 is not. The quality of games is sadly not represented by their sales. Nothing new and nothing specific to Forza I'd say.

Not knocking on GT here, just saying in general. I don't even like sim racers.

 

[VerTiGo]

Wii could surpass 360 this summer, the problem is...

when Halo 3 arrives in September, 360 sales will explode (in US i mean)

And what makes you think that Wii sales won't aslo explode begining with software releases like Metroid Prime 3, Super Mario Galaxy, Wii Health, Wii Music and Super Smash Bros. Melee. Wii Health and Wii Music are the biggest wildcards too, since they're the two that might actually expand the demographic of the Wii even further than what Wii Sports can do.

 

[Odysseus]

Well, there's certainly better reasons to buy a PS3 or 360 this Fall than there is to buy a Wii.

(in terms of sheer quantity of awesome games)

there are presently 150 better reasons to buy a wii over 360, 350 better reasons over a ps3. games, price, buzz, they're all connected.

 

[Grampa Simpson]

And what makes you think that Wii sales won't aslo explode begining with software releases like Metroid Prime 3, Super Mario Galaxy, Wii Health, Wii Music and Super Smash Bros. Melee. Wii Health and Wii Music are the biggest wildcards too, since they're the two that might actually expand the demographic of the Wii even further than what Wii Sports can do.

None of those will boost sales. They may boost demand, but not sales.

 

[Tf53]

But will they really? I think that remains to be seen. I think much of the Halo demographic already owns a 360 that they bought either in anticipation of the game or for say Gears and Dead Rising.

Quite right. Although I think Halo 3 combined with GTA IV is going to move some units. But then again, so are Mario Galaxy, Wii Health and SSB:B.

 

[test_account]

None of those will boost sales. They may boost demand, but not sales.

I think the supply is much better when these games (Super Mario Galaxy and Super Smash Brothers Brawl) gets out. Didnt Nintendo just "open" a 2nd factory to produce Wii consoles? I'm sure some people are waiting to buy a Wii before these games gets out, just like some people are waiting to buy 360 before Halo 3 and PS3 for FF13 and MGS 4.

 

[Xzbeat]

Well, there's certainly better reasons to buy a PS3 or 360 this Fall than there is to buy a Wii.

(in terms of sheer quantity of awesome games)

With SSB Dojo, Super Mario Galaxy and MP3 out before the end of the calendar year I doubt there's much more reason to buy a PS3 or a 360 than a Wii.

 

[Speevy]

With SSB Dojo, Super Mario Galaxy and MP3 out before the end of the calendar year I doubt there's much more reason to buy a PS3 or a 360 than a Wii.

-Halo 3
-GTA4
-Uncharted
-Heavenly Sword
-Assassin's Creed
-Mercenaries 2
-The Darkness
-Project Gotham Racing 4
-Devil May Cry 4


I could go on and on.

Of course, it's not like I care because I'm buying Metroid, Mario, and Smash AND those other games.

 

[milanbaros]

Once the Wii overtakes the 360 worldwide I don't think the Wii will ever drop from 1st place. I can see the Wii having supply problems in the US though so the 360 might outsell it in the last 4 months.

 

[Xzbeat]

XBOX 360

Halo 3
GTA4
Project Gotham Racing 4
Assassin's Creed

PS3

Uncharted
Heavenly Sword

Devil May Cry 4 is a 2008 title and the other two are certainly not in the same league. They are definately not system systems sellers

 

[ksamedi]

-Halo 3
-GTA4
-Uncharted
-Heavenly Sword
-Assassin's Creed
-Mercenaries 2
-The Darkness
-Project Gotham Racing 4
-Devil May Cry 4


I could go on and on.

Of course, it's not like I care because I'm buying Metroid, Mario, and Smash AND those other games.

Yep listing PS3 and 360 games in one list is a real fair comparison. And ofcourse the list you posted is not interesting to every gamer. The Wii has a very decent lineup till 2008.

 

[Speevy]

Yep listing PS3 and 360 games in one list is a real fair comparison. And ofcourse the list you posted is not interesting to every gamer. The Wii has a very decent lineup till 2008.

I could just list 360 OR PS3. There's so much overlap that it doesn't matter.

 

[Vyer]

-Halo 3
-GTA4
-Uncharted
-Heavenly Sword
-Assassin's Creed
-Mercenaries 2
-The Darkness
-Project Gotham Racing 4
-Devil May Cry 4


I could go on and on.

Of course, it's not like I care because I'm buying Metroid, Mario, and Smash AND those other games.

I agree with you (about quantity) but I don't think the vast majority/mainstream will see it that way.

Wii will likely still be hot this holiday. Adding a couple new 'mario' games will only add to that. Meanwhile the 360 will still be a buzz, but most of that (mainstream speaking) will probably come from Halo.

We're talking about the mom/pop Christmas buying crowd here. They'll both be hot, but in no way would I expect the 'buzz' to center primarily on one of the systems.

 

[Kafel]

-Halo 3
-GTA4
-Uncharted
-Heavenly Sword
-Assassin's Creed
-Mercenaries 2
-The Darkness
-Project Gotham Racing 4
-Devil May Cry 4


I could go on and on.

Of course, it's not like I care because I'm buying Metroid, Mario, and Smash AND those other games.

DMC4 will be released in 2008 I heard.

 

[ksamedi]

I could just list 360 OR PS3. There's so much overlap that it doesn't matter.

Fair enough, but im still not convinced that the 360 or PS3 lineup is better then Wiis. If all the Wii games come out in 2007 ofcourse.

 

[RiskyChris]

-Halo 3
-GTA4
-Uncharted
-Heavenly Sword
-Assassin's Creed
-Mercenaries 2
-The Darkness
-Project Gotham Racing 4
-Devil May Cry 4


I could go on and on.

Of course, it's not like I care because I'm buying Metroid, Mario, and Smash AND those other games.

I'll predict that only the first two (Halo 3, GTA4) will have a notable impact on the market. 360 will sell a LOT this holiday season. It will be as hot as Wii.

Edit: I'm not saying the other games aren't selling points for a system (they are for me in some cases), but for the mainstream crowd they'll go largely ignored by most.

 

[jimbo]

With SSB Dojo, Super Mario Galaxy and MP3 out before the end of the calendar year I doubt there's much more reason to buy a PS3 or a 360 than a Wii.

:lol

 

[D.Lo]

None of those will boost sales. They may boost demand, but not sales.

That is the only relevant point.

It's Wii Supply vs 360 sales in September.

If Nintendo can get production up, 360 has no chance even for the month (they'd sell 500,000 in a day in japan if they had them). If they can't, then the 360 may possibly regain the lead temporarily, after the Wii takes it sometime between June and August.

 

[jimbo]

As soon as it's obvious that the previous generation winner isn't going to win. Maybe at June 2001, after the N64 launch? From that sense, Sony was right in saying "Next-Gen doesn't start until we say it does."





360 - ~8.5 million
WII - ~6.8 million

Man, your 360 estimated are laughable at best. That's the number people were estimating at the end of last year, back when MS announced 10.4 million shipped. Your Wii number is correct. Because it's based on Nintendo TRUE WORLD WIDE numbers.

US 360 sales 5.4 million
US European sales( if we assume Europe = 50%of US) 2.7
Japan 362 thousand

Total = 8.5 million..........With Canda, Australia, South America, South Africa, Korea, China, the rest of Asia, New Zealand........remaining.

Try 10 million for the 360.

 

[Xeke]

That is the only relevant point.

It's Wii Supply vs 360 sales in September.

If Nintendo can get production up, 360 has no chance even for the month (they'd sell 500,000 in a day in japan if they had them). If they can't, then the 360 may possibly regain the lead temporarily, after the Wii takes it sometime between June and August.

Except that even if the Wii and 360 are selling neck and neck in NA and Europe the Wii will also be selling like hotcakes in Japan. The 360...not so much.

Man, your 360 estimated are laughable at best. That's the number people were estimating at the end of last year, back when MS announced 10.4 million shipped. Your Wii number is correct. Because it's based on Nintendo TRUE WORLD WIDE numbers.

US 360 sales 5.4 million
US European sales( if we assume Europe = 50%of US) 2.7
Japan 362 thousand

Total = 8.5 million..........With Canda, Australia, South America, South Africa, Korea, China, the rest of Asia, New Zealand........remaining.

Try > 10 million for the 360.

Shipped =/= Sold.

I'm sure there are a few million 360's sitting on shelves across the world. Who cares if MS shipped 10 million? All that proves is that they made that many, not that that many sold.

 

[The M.O.B]

:lol

:lol

 

[Xzbeat]

:lol

:lol :lol if you actually think Uncharted and Heavenly Sword, 2 unproven IPs, will match SSBD and SMG sales.

 

[Ngeist]

XBOX 360

Halo 3
GTA4
Project Gotham Racing 4
Assassin's Creed

PS3

Uncharted
Heavenly Sword

Devil May Cry 4 is a 2008 title and the other two are certainly not in the same league. They are definately not system systems sellers

Plus Blue Dragon & Lost Odyssey & Splinter Cell Conviction (& Trusty Bell ?)

 

[StevieP]

jimbo, even ioi doesn't have the 360 at 10million and his numbers are usually inflated. That should tell you how skewed that belief is. They shipped 10.6 million last (what was it, November?) year, and I don't think they've sold through that yet. At last, non-ioi check, they're around 9 million, give or take. Argue all you'd like, but at least don't be delusional about sales-age.

 

[RiskyChris]

:lol :lol if you actually think Uncharted and Heavenly Sword, 2 unproven IPs, will match SSBD and SMG sales.

People need to realize that as far as mainstream appeal goes (sans Wii Sports), Wii's library will meet parity with the 360 with release of MP3, SSBB, and Galaxy. These are three AAA titles that will greatly increase the value of a Wii.

 

[jimbo]

Except that even if the Wii and 360 are selling neck and neck in NA and Europe the Wii will also be selling like hotcakes in Japan. The 360...not so much.



Shipped =/= Sold.

I'm sure there are a few million 360's sitting on shelves across the world. Who cares if MS shipped 10 million? All that proves is that they made that many, not that that many sold.

I am not talking about SHIPPED. I am talking sold.

The 8.5 million represents SOLD numbers in the US, Europe and Japan.

Canda alone has ~300,000 units SOLD. So you can estimate 9 million for the 360 with just Europe, Japan, and NA.

And you still have to add the remaining countries in which is not far fetched to say they account for roughly another million units.

Therefore 360's estimated SOLD WW TOTALS is roughly 10 million, not 8.5.

8.5 is low balling like hell.

 

[jimbo]

:lol :lol if you actually think Uncharted and Heavenly Sword, 2 unproven IPs, will match SSBD and SMG sales.

You're delusional if you think the Wii's line-up is ANYWHERE near as strong as the 360's.

 

[StevieP]

No, it IS far-fetched to say so. The 360 is far less affordable in "Other" (though, funny enough, it's cheaper than the Wii in many places in Europe and still doesn't sell well) countries that it sells in, and Australia/New Zealand aren't going to push a half million units either.

You're delusional if you think the Wii's line-up is ANYWHERE near as strong as the 360's.

Nobody here does. The people buying the system to play Wii Sports think it's about 50 times better, though.

 

[SouthernDragon]

Hell, I'd wager Smash and Mario have more clout than the others. Mario, even at his low points, always has been and always will be recognized. And Smash is very attractive, to the point of picking up the controller and fiddling around with it even if you've never seen it before.

 

[RiskyChris]

You're delusional if you think the Wii's line-up is ANYWHERE near as strong as the 360's.

Are you talking about sheer mass of enjoyable titles or sales potential (the point of this thread...)?

Because Wii's lineup at the end of 2007 will have a much stronger sales pitch than the 360's, guaranteed. Have you seen the sales of NSMB? The king is back, baby.

SSBB will outsell Halo 3 LTD this generation.