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[andthebeatgoeson]

So now the console with the larger user base(360) has to CATCH UP to the console with the smaller user base(Wii)?

wow.

Sure, keep highlighting small amounts of semantics. You ever gonna expound on how a console can break sales records, blow up in all 3 territories and cede that momentum?

 

[F#A#Oo]

Haha this thread needs more ps3forums:

I'm Vision of Division on those forums...Neo-Jaffe comment was me...:lol I was taking the píss...

I'm glad I put on a good act though...

It's a shame they banned my previous account under the name St Jude...I was building a good amount of rep off that account since I registered in 2005...ah well.

 

[jimbo]

Sure, keep highlighting small amounts of semantics. You ever gonna expound on how a console can break sales records, blow up in all 3 territories and cede that momentum?

Yeah, you're right. Let's ignore that little thing that the Wii has to first catch the 360 and THEN outsell it...before we can even talk about it being caught by anything.

Who cares about little semantics?

Why live in reality when we can live in some people's PREDICTED FUTURE.

 

[Eteric Rice]

Well the Wii definately has Japan by the balls. Dragon Quest Swords and Final Fantasy CC will probably cement that little fact.

Yeah, you're right. Let's ignore that little thing that the Wii has to first catch the 360 and THEN outsell it...before we can even talk about it being caught by anything.

Who cares about little semantics?

Why live in reality when we can live in some people's PREDICTED FUTURE.

World wide, it probably won't take long to catch up.

 

[Wonderdave]

When was the last time the fastest, most popular console out there suddenly stopped selling? What would cause such a thing? Let's get your imagination running. What is a likely scenario?

So what's a likely scenario that the PS3 and 360 will somehow best the Wii's current sales? You said that in ONE YEAR everything can change. Gimme some theories that would work in the real world.

N64

 

[Grampa Simpson]

Yeah, you're right. Let's ignore that little thing that the Wii has to first catch the 360 and THEN outsell it...before we can even talk about it being caught by anything.

Who cares about little semantics?

Why live in reality when we can live in some people's PREDICTED FUTURE.

There was a line on last weeks episode of house that just seems to fit this situation:

So, do you want me to explain to you how you just lost, or do you want to stare at the board for your full three minutes, and cling to hope?

Is that about right?

 

[viciouskillersquirrel]

Why live in reality when we can live in some people's PREDICTED FUTURE.

Say you're driving in your car at night and you see a concrete barrier suddenly appear across the road. The speed of your travel would suggest that you will hit that barrier soon, but since you're living in reality and not some predicted future, you continue on your course and maintain a steady velocity rather than swerve or apply the brakes.

Or, say, you're travelling in your car and a few kilometres up the road, you see a man on a scooter. Your buddy in the car bets you $10 that you can't catch up to him. You're travelling at 120kph and he's plodding along at 10kph (a touch above walking speed). It might be reasonable to suppose in some predicted future that it wouldn't take you long at all to catch up to this man and overtake him, but you're living in reality, not some predicted future, so you don't take that bet.

Am I understanding your logic correctly?

 

[F#A#Oo]

I'm pretty sure Vision of Division is a gaffer playing with them

Ding Ding Ding! We have a winner...

I was trying to raise the bar and see if I could have got anyone supporting my super-fan-boy rants and manage to get some serious responses but alas it was not to be...even a mod edited one of my posts...:O

 

[jimbo]

Say you're driving in your car at night and you see a concrete barrier suddenly appear across the road. The speed of your travel would suggest that you will hit that barrier soon, but since you're living in reality and not some predicted future, you continue on your course and maintain a steady velocity rather than swerve or apply the brakes.

Or, say, you're travelling in your car and a few kilometres up the road, you see a man on a scooter. Your buddy in the car bets you $10 that you can't catch up to him. You're travelling at 120kph and he's plodding along at 10kph (a touch above walking speed). It might be reasonable to suppose in some predicted future that it wouldn't take you long at all to catch up to this man and overtake him, but you're living in reality, not some predicted future, so you don't take that bet.

Am I understanding your logic correctly?

Yeah except this isn't linear algebra.

More like Nascar...where one racer is ahead, but in the pit stop refueling while the other one's racing as fast as it can burning gas. Sure the car behind is making up laps....but eventually it's going to need to re-fuel too. This is after 20 laps with 280 to go.

According to your logic....there's no need to watch the entire Nascar race.....everyone just needs to see who's running the fastest first 20 laps.....and that's the winner.

 

[AniHawk]

Yeah except this isn't linear algebra.

More like Nascar...where one racer is ahead, but in the pit stop refueling while the other one's racing as fast as it can burning gas. Sure the car behind is making up laps....but eventually it's going to need to re-fuel too. This is after 20 laps with 280 to go.

What leads you to believe that the Wii's going to need to "refuel"? It's 6 months later and the system is STILL hard to find.

 

[DaMan121]

N64

Huh? In the US, the N64 sold steadily, and quite well - its just the ps sold a alot more. The n64 never outsold the competition by a large margin - got in the lead by millions, then declined.

 

[SovanJedi]

Yeah except this isn't linear algebra.

More like Nascar...where one racer is ahead, but in the pit stop refueling while the other one's racing as fast as it can burning gas. Sure the car behind is making up laps....but eventually it's going to need to re-fuel too. This is after 20 laps with 280 to go.

According to your logic....there's no need to watch the entire Nascar race.....everyone just needs to see who's running the fastest first 20 laps.....and that's the winner.

There's this excellent literature called "The Tortoise and the Hare". Perhaps you're familiar with it?

Only in this situation, the tortoise is on turbo engines.

 

[Vinnk]

It’s so much easier to understand with charts.

Thank you so much. Your artistic skills are truly amazing.

QUOTE=The thread in general] Congratulations Vinnk![/QUOTE]

Thanks guys. And I am sorry for totally derailing this thread.

Well the Wii definately has Japan by the balls. Dragon Quest Swords and Final Fantasy CC will probably cement that little fact.

They better do well. Because these are some of the first, third party titles to both be designed for the Wii and have the proper amount of effort and polish put into them. Other third parties are going to be watching this to see how these titles sell. To see that they can compete with the non-games. If they are both hits, expect a lot more epic (or at least larger scale) games coming to the Wii.

If they only do ok, it might send the message that they can save a lot of money just releasing more mini games. The people who bought Zelda are, I'm sure waiting FFCC: CB but how about those (like my parents) who only have Wii Sports and Warioware? These games should tell us a lot about the demograpic. I'm excited.

 

[farnham]

What leads you to believe that the Wii's going to need to "refuel"? It's 6 months later and the system is STILL hard to find.

seriously ani.. back in 2002 when the GC struggled against the PS2.. how did you feel about

Metroid Prime, Zelda WW, Resident Evil Rebirth and Zero, Eternal Darkness, Mario Sunshine, Mario Party 4 all comming out in the same year...

at least for me it was like "the GC has still a chance to win"

Well it didnt turned that way.. but i do symphathize when people think that "heavenly sword, folks soul, lair etc." will turn the situation drastically..

why.. because ive been there and ive done that as well

 

[AdmiralViscen]

So now the console with the larger user base(360) has to CATCH UP to the console with the smaller user base(Wii)?

wow.

Wii is going to have 24 million consoles out there by next March. Do you really think 360 will have more than, say, 18 million by that time?

Yes, 360's monthly sales are going to have to catch up if it's going to be anything but second place 3 months from now, let alone a year from now.


I love when people make outrageous comments and then play dumb to reality using semantics.

Yeah, you're right. Let's ignore that little thing that the Wii has to first catch the 360 and THEN outsell it...before we can even talk about it being caught by anything.

Who cares about little semantics?

Why live in reality when we can live in some people's PREDICTED FUTURE.

Wii is going to surpass 360 before summer is over. This isn't even a prediction, it's a trajectory. Explain how Wii sales are going to plummet in the next 3 months to prevent this from happening.

 

[farnham]

They better do well. Because these are some of the first, third party titles to both be designed for the Wii and have the proper amount of effort and polish put into them. Other third parties are going to be watching this to see how these titles sell. To see that they can compete with the non-games. If they are both hits, expect a lot more epic (or at least larger scale) games coming to the Wii.

If they only do ok, it might send the message that they can save a lot of money just releasing more mini games. The people who bought Zelda are, I'm sure waiting FFCC: CB but how about those (like my parents) who only have Wii Sports and Warioware? These games should tell us a lot about the demograpic. I'm excited.

dont forget one piece unlimited adventure.. It was not a top seller and certainly not as great as many people thought.. but it was a third party game built from the ground up for wii..

 

[AniHawk]

seriously ani.. back in 2002 when the GC struggled against the PS2.. how did you feel about

Metroid Prime, Zelda WW, Resident Evil Rebirth and Zero, Eternal Darkness, Mario Sunshine, Mario Party 4 all comming out in the same year...

at least for me it was like "the GC has still a chance to win"

Well it didnt turned that way.. but i do symphathize when people think that "heavenly sword, folks soul, lair etc." will turn the situation drastically..

why.. because ive been there and ive done that as well

It's 5 years later and everyone should know better. People who were on the "winning" end of the GC/everything else "battle" should recognize what the hell is going on right now.

 

[PhoenixDark]

She Said Yes!

Ok, I need to get some sleep.

congrats

Holy shit you look badass.

 

[AdmiralViscen]

When was the last time the fastest, most popular console out there suddenly stopped selling? What would cause such a thing? Let's get your imagination running. What is a likely scenario?

So what's a likely scenario that the PS3 and 360 will somehow best the Wii's current sales? You said that in ONE YEAR everything can change. Gimme some theories that would work in the real world.

N64

N64 sales were going down by this point, it was never on track to outsell PS1. It didn't even manage to outsell Saturn in Japan AFAIK. The only territory it ever did well in was the US. It's more like 360 than Wii.

I don't even know what makes you think N64 applies to the second quote. N64 was never outselling shit.

 

[farnham]

It's 5 years later and everyone should know better. People who were on the "winning" end of the GC/everything else "battle" should recognize what the hell is going on right now.

well look at "random sales charts from europe/japan/NA"

numbers dont lie..

 

[AdmiralViscen]

I had a GCN, and I never ever ever thought it would beat PS2. And when Splinter Cell outsold Metroid Prime, I knew it'd never come around to beat XBox.

 

[viciouskillersquirrel]

Yeah except this isn't linear algebra.

More like Nascar...where one racer is ahead, but in the pit stop refueling while the other one's racing as fast as it can burning gas. Sure the car behind is making up laps....but eventually it's going to need to re-fuel too. This is after 20 laps with 280 to go.

According to your logic....there's no need to watch the entire Nascar race.....everyone just needs to see who's running the fastest first 20 laps.....and that's the winner.

This is true. The metaphor breaks down when you talk about refuelling: at no point in a normal sales curve do sales ever suddenly stop as speed does when you refuel, barring some event such as a mass boycott or product recall. In this case, it would be more apt to assume unlimited amounts of fuel and instead focus on engine power and how it relates to speed.

The 360 has a certain amount of power in its sales engine. The performance of the 360's sales car would be limited by the power output of the engine, the wind resistance experienced by the chassis, the terrain and the weight of the vehicle itself. Right now, even in the US, sales have become sluggish on the 360. They're stuck in first in Japan and are cruising along at half-pace in Europe. The 360 (when it comes to sales) is like a van with tools in the back: solid, dependable, but not too flash when it comes to aerodynamics (mass market appeal) or weight (price).

Wii, on the other hand, is what essentially amounts to a V8 engine on an aerodynamically-shaped fibreglass shell. It doesn't matter if the van has a 20 lap head start, one would expect the lighter, *much* more aerodynamic car to catch up to the van pretty easily within the first 40 laps. Worldwide, of course.

In the US, I'm thinking it'll catch up before 100 laps are done.

 

[Grampa Simpson]

N64 sales were going down by this point, it was never on track to outsell PS1. It didn't even manage to outsell Saturn in Japan AFAIK. The only territory it ever did well in was the US. It's more like 360 than Wii.

I don't even know what makes you think N64 applies to the second quote. N64 was never outselling shit.

The Saturn.

Analogy:

PS3 == Saturn.

 

[Mar]

She Said Yes!

She's hot. Congrats!

 

[jimbo]

This is true. The metaphor breaks down when you talk about refuelling: at no point in a normal sales curve do sales ever suddenly stop as speed does when you refuel, barring some event such as a mass boycott or product recall. In this case, it would be more apt to assume unlimited amounts of fuel and instead focus on engine power and how it relates to speed.

The 360 has a certain amount of power in its sales engine. The performance of the 360's sales car would be limited by the power output of the engine, the wind resistance experienced by the chassis, the terrain and the weight of the vehicle itself. Right now, even in the US, sales have become sluggish on the 360. They're stuck in first in Japan and are cruising along at half-pace in Europe. The 360 (when it comes to sales) is like a van with tools in the back: solid, dependable, but not too flash when it comes to aerodynamics (mass market appeal) or weight (price).

Wii, on the other hand, is what essentially amounts to a V8 engine on an aerodynamically-shaped fibreglass shell. It doesn't matter if the van has a 20 lap head start, one would expect the lighter, *much* more aerodynamic car to catch up to the van pretty easily within the first 40 laps. Worldwide, of course.

In the US, I'm thinking it'll catch up before 100 laps are done.

And that's where your analogy breaks down.

Wii = smartcar.

 

[SouthernDragon]

Congratulations to the happy couple!

The fiance is pretty, and the dude is a manly man. Awesome pair!

Wait, people are talking sales? Guys, this is now:

Vinnk's Victory Thread 5/14 - 5/20

 

[felipeko]

And that's where your analogy breaks down.

Wii = smartcar.

He was talking about sales... Not in price, hardware or anything else... And in sales a smartcar is not a good representation of the situation...

 

[Hcoregamer00]

congrats

Holy shit you look badass.

A girlfriend does wonders.

No seriously, guys tend to dress nicer and try harder in their appearance.

 

[Wonderdave]

N64 sales were going down by this point, it was never on track to outsell PS1. It didn't even manage to outsell Saturn in Japan AFAIK. The only territory it ever did well in was the US. It's more like 360 than Wii.

I don't even know what makes you think N64 applies to the second quote. N64 was never outselling shit.

So now the N64 was stillborn, a dead console walking? The fact is that the N64 was doing well and it fell off and ended up a distant second. The magnitude of its initial success was smaller but my point stands. The Wii has ceded the high tech ground and along with it the core, traditional and (simulationist) sports gamer.

Games are what sell consoles, not controllers, not momentum, not brand identity. Anyone that believe that ultimately it is anything else that drive sales in not worth speaking to. Nintendo had its chance to wow everyone with their "New and Interesting" gameplay but so far its largley been mini games and PS2/PSP ports and last gen gameplay translated for waggle. People will only accept anyones word for but so long before they have to deliver. We've seen Sonys' gamers day and we've seen Nintendos' offerings. I say someone here is not keeping their promises.

 

[Evlar]

So now the N64 was stillborn, a dead console walking? The fact is that the N64 was doing well and it fell off and ended up a distant second. The magnitude of its initial success was smaller but my point stands. The Wii has ceded the high tech ground and along with it the core, traditional and (simulationist) sports gamer.

Games are what sell consoles, not controllers, not momentum, not brand identity. Anyone that believe that ultimately it is anything else that drive sales in not worth speaking to. Nintendo had its chance to wow everyone with their "New and Interesting" gameplay but so far its largley been mini games and PS2/PSP ports and last gen gameplay translated for waggle. People will only accept anyones word for but so long before they have to deliver. We've seen Sonys' gamers day and we've seen Nintendos' offerings. I say someone here is not keeping their promises.

I thought you said TECH sold consoles.

 

[RiskyChris]

Yeah except this isn't linear algebra.

More like Nascar...where one racer is ahead, but in the pit stop refueling while the other one's racing as fast as it can burning gas. Sure the car behind is making up laps....but eventually it's going to need to re-fuel too. This is after 20 laps with 280 to go.

According to your logic....there's no need to watch the entire Nascar race.....everyone just needs to see who's running the fastest first 20 laps.....and that's the winner.

I can make stupid analogies too:

Wii is like a fruit fly - glorious but short-lived, 1 day and then it's gone
360/PS3 are like redwoods - slow to grow, but last forever dominating the earth

 

[DaMan121]

So now the N64 was stillborn, a dead console walking? The fact is that the N64 was doing well and it fell off and ended up a distant second.

No - it was always doing well off in the US- the sales never dropped off. Its just the ps was selling alot better. The n64 is more analgous to the psp vs ds - its doing well, its just the ds sales that are amazing.

Games are what sell consoles, not controllers, not momentum, not brand identity.

Well yes - but predicting what those games are.. thats another thing all together. Nintendo fans thought ED,MP,SMS etc mattered - they didnt ( as far as the console race ), PSP fans thought GTA, MGS etc mattered - they didnt.. see the patern? Right now, WiiSports, WiiPlay actually matter.

We've seen Sonys' gamers day and we've seen Nintendos' offerings. I say someone here is not keeping their promises.

Too cryptic there - dont know what that means.

 

[Innotech]

So now the N64 was stillborn, a dead console walking? The fact is that the N64 was doing well and it fell off and ended up a distant second. The magnitude of its initial success was smaller but my point stands. The Wii has ceded the high tech ground and along with it the core, traditional and (simulationist) sports gamer.

Games are what sell consoles, not controllers, not momentum, not brand identity. Anyone that believe that ultimately it is anything else that drive sales in not worth speaking to. Nintendo had its chance to wow everyone with their "New and Interesting" gameplay but so far its largley been mini games and PS2/PSP ports and last gen gameplay translated for waggle. People will only accept anyones word for but so long before they have to deliver. We've seen Sonys' gamers day and we've seen Nintendos' offerings. I say someone here is not keeping their promises.

I agree. the sony gamers day was pretty underwhelming. but give them a chance.

 

[Eteric Rice]

She Said Yes!

Ok, I need to get some sleep.

Congrats man!

 

[justchris]

She Said Yes!

Ok, I need to get some sleep.

Woohoo! Congratulations!

 

[Mariah Carey]

N64 sales were going down by this point, it was never on track to outsell PS1. It didn't even manage to outsell Saturn in Japan AFAIK. The only territory it ever did well in was the US. It's more like 360 than Wii.

I don't even know what makes you think N64 applies to the second quote. N64 was never outselling shit.

I agree it doesn't apply here, but I always remember reading that (in NA at least) that the N64 launch/Mario 64/ holiday hype was so monstrous that by the end of 96 the N64 had already caught up to whatever lead the PS had, but then PS pulled ahead in 97 with stuff like FFVII. Obviously this generation is a different situation (and this, again, is only applicable to NA), but I guess that would be an example of a console's popularity "slowing down."

 

[Great Rumbler]

I agree it doesn't apply here, but I always remember reading that (in NA at least) that the N64 launch/Mario 64/ holiday hype was so monstrous that by the end of 96 the N64 had already caught up to whatever lead the PS had, but then PS pulled ahead in 97 with stuff like FFVII. Obviously this generation is a different situation (and this, again, is only applicable to NA), but I guess that would be an example of a console's popularity "slowing down."

The N64's biggest problem was that it launched with one of the biggest games ever and then...nothing. For an entire year! To be exact, it was 10 months for Star Fox 64 and 13 months for Star Wars: Shadows of the Empire, which were the next two games I played for the system.

It was good enough for me as a ten-year-old, because for that entire year I played Mario 64 nearly every day, but you're never going to maintain any kind of long-term momentum with a release schedule like that.

On the other hand, the Wii has been maintaining a [somewhat] steady stream of mid-range titles and looks to continue that trend with some high-profile titles through the rest of the year.

 

[Slurpy]

Yeah, you're right. Let's ignore that little thing that the Wii has to first catch the 360 and THEN outsell it...before we can even talk about it being caught by anything.

Who cares about little semantics?

Why live in reality when we can live in some people's PREDICTED FUTURE.

Total wii install base will exceed that of the 360 in a matter of months. That kind of prediction doesnt require a crystal ball.

 

[Matt]

The N64's biggest problem was that it launched with one of the biggest games ever and then...nothing. For an entire year! To be exact, it was 10 months for Star Fox 64 and 13 months for Star Wars: Shadows of the Empire, which were the next two games I played for the system.

It was good enough for me as a ten-year-old, because for that entire year I played Mario 64 nearly every day, but you're never going to maintain any kind of long-term momentum with a release schedule like that.

Shadows of the Empire was released 4 months after the N64...

 

[TONX]

wrong thread.

 

[Great Rumbler]

Shadows of the Empire was released 4 months after the N64...

Whoops, it turns out you're right. I somehow read "December 1996" as "December 1997".

Anyway, my point remains the same. Those three games were pretty much the only truly worthwhile titles from October 1996 to July 1997.

 

[Mariah Carey]

Anyway, my point remains the same. Those three games were pretty much the only truly worthwhile titles from October 1996 to July 1997.

Mario Kart 64, skank.

Still, point taken.

 

[Matt]

Whoops, it turns out you're right. I somehow read "December 1996" as "December 1997".

Anyway, my point remains the same. Those three games were pretty much the only truly worthwhile titles from October 1996 to July 1997.

::cough:: WaveRave ::cough::

 

[donny2112]

I haven't seen a a member of the Sony defense force in the last weeks appear anywhere in the forum.

They tend to come into sales threads and get subsequently banned.

Better yet, what's he going to do when Nintendo takes over the #1 WW spot by July?

Fixed.



I got to this thread late, so I only just got to Vinnk's proposal and acceptance sections. Sorry for being late but Congraulations!!! I hope you both enjoy a long, loving, and fruitful marriage together.


Edit:

Those three games were pretty much the only truly worthwhile titles from October 1996 to July 1997.

Until StarFox64 came out, I bought Super Mario 64, Mortal Kombat Trilogy (Noob Saibot!), Shadows of the Empire (very nice game, and the secrets that came out for it months later rocked! I even eventually read the book it was based on), Turok 1 (not enough dinosaurs, but a very fun game for the time), and Mario Kart 64. Mario Kart 64 alone was heavily played for the next few months.

And, of course, there was that little game that launched in August. Golden-something or other.

 

[PantherLotus]

1. Oh Jimbo.
2. Oh Wonderdave.
3. :lol

 

[D.Lo]

Total wii install base will exceed that of the 360 in a matter of months. That kind of prediction doesnt require a crystal ball.

Let's look at Japan + US.

Japan

Total
Wii - 2,476,552
360 - 362,383

April
Wii 357,514
360 11,574

US

Total
Wii - 2,470,000
360 - 5,401,000

April
Wii 360k
360 174k

Japan + USA totals

Wii - 4,946,522
360 - 5,763,383

360 is 816,861 ahead as of April US and most of May JP for the two territories.
(obviously we have Japan data to May but US data only to April)

April totals

USA + Japan
Wii 715,514
360 185,574

April Wii gain (US+JP)
529,940

--------------------------------------

Assuming that the Wii will outsell the 360 by the same amount in May and June in both the US and Japan as it did in April, which would equal a gain of 901,940 to the current totals by the end of June.

Basically, Wii will surpass 360 in USA+Japan by the end of June.

Unless the 360 can hold off the Wii LTD in Europe by the end of June (who knows?), the Wii will be ahead worldwide by then.

 

[Cheesemeister]

I hope you both enjoy a long, loving, and fruitful marriage together.

That means have lots of kids!

Goddamn you half-Japanese girls do it to me every time~

 

[Brak]

Let's look at Japan + US.

Japan

Total
Wii - 2,476,552
360 - 362,383

April
Wii 357,514
360 11,574

US

Total
Wii - 2,470,000
360 - 5,401,000

April
Wii 360k
360 174k

Japan + USA totals

Wii - 4,946,522
360 - 5,763,383

360 is 816,861 ahead as of April US and most of May JP for the two territories.
(obviously we have Japan data to May but US data only to April)

April totals

USA + Japan
Wii 715,514
360 185,574

April Wii gain (US+JP)
529,940

--------------------------------------

Assuming that the Wii will outsell the 360 by the same amount in May and June in both the US and Japan as it did in April, which would equal a gain of 901,940 to the current totals by the end of June.

Basically, Wii will surpass 360 in USA+Japan by the end of June.

Unless the 360 can hold off the Wii LTD in Europe by the end of June (who knows?), the Wii will be ahead worldwide by then.

Nice post. Really sums up just how quickly the Wii has demolished the 360's headstart.

I would imagine that the gap in PAL territories is down to a million or less as well.

 

[Innotech]

That means have lots of kids!

Goddamn you half-Japanese girls do it to me every time~

Pinkerton FTMFW

 

[Innotech]

Nice post. Really sums up just how quickly the Wii has demolished the 360's headstart.

I would imagine that the gap in PAL territories is down to a million or less as well.

Some of my friends who are diehard Sony fans keep saying "the console war is not a sprint, its a marathon". these same people last gen talked about how Ps2 had an early lead and Gamecube wouldnt win because getting in front early was important.