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[Jokeropia]

Who thinks software support will just all leave PS3 and go to Nintendo is stupid past believe. Game support will split up between PS3/360 and Wii (to say it the hard way, most low profile games will go to the Wii, most ambitious teams trying to push boundaries will develop for 360/PS3).

Just like all the ambitious teams made Xbox/GC games last generation and gave low-profile support to PS2. Yes, the horsepower difference is bigger this time, but what you're suggesting is that the best developers are only satisfied with cutting edge hardware, something the PS2 didn't have.

Quality 3rd party games will in many cases be overlooked or just be crushed by some stupid mini game collections.

Just like quality third party games was overshadowed by the mountain of crap on PS2. (I can even give an example in Okami vs. 50 Cent Bulletproof!)

Anyway, even if the Wii gets the majority of games this time, I can see which teams the talented and ambitious programmers and artist will go to.

I find it humorously presumptuous that you believe all good developers prefer to make games that appeal to you despite that you're part of a smaller market. That all ambitious developer teams want to make games for cutting edge horsepower only (innovations made possible by the Wiimote be damned) is such utter BS and the ones that do would only make PC games anyway.

 

[D.Lo]

The PS3 will almost surely have more games total than the GameCube had. There's almost no question here. The nature of the multiplatform environment we're operating in now assures that.

Based on what exactly? GCN could easily get cheap and nastly posrts of PS2/Xbox games, but even after 2 years some companies didn't bother with them even when previous entries had been on the console (eg Burnout 3). Last gen was supposed to be the multiplatform generation too, and the PS3 is doing far worse then the Gamecube.

But how long can they sustain that? It's starting to look like the Wii will surpass the combined totals of the 360/PS3 sooner than expected(and then some), probably within a year. PC ports are more or less inconsequential for a variety of reasons.

Within a year? It could happen within this year.

Who thinks software support will just all leave PS3 and go to Nintendo is stupid past believe. Game support will split up between PS3/360 and Wii (to say it the hard way, most low profile games will go to the Wii, most ambitious teams trying to push boundaries will develop for 360/PS3).

:lol :lol :lol

And when the Wii has over 50% marketshare (60%? 70%? At current sales rates anything's possible), these 'low profile' games will outsell your 'boundary pushing' games and actually become the higher profile games!

You do realise Wii Sports is the highest profile game so far this gen? Mario Party 8 is the highest profile game in the US right now?

 

[donny2112]

The PS3 will almost surely have more games total than the GameCube had. There's almost no question here. The nature of the multiplatform environment we're operating in now assures that.

Will the PS3 have a greater percentage of ports than the GCN had? Possibly. However with increased development time and costs, there should be less of a pool of games to port from than last generation for the HD consoles.

I don't think it's possible for PS3 to have fewer games than GC when everything is said and done.

"In five years"

When it's all "said and done," sure the PS3 may have more games than the GCN, but in 2011, I don't think that'll be the case. However, I think we can all agree that the games for the PS3 won't come "rolling in" like they did for the PS2. :lol

Game support will split up between PS3/360 and Wii (to say it the hard way, most normal/mainstream games will go to the Wii, most ambitious teams trying to push boundaries will develop for 360/PS3).

Fixed.

as much as a PS3 exclusive makes no sense any longer it is the same for 360 exclusives (besides huge money hats).

I agree in princple. I could just not be paying close enough attention, but it seems like there are a number of games staying 360-exclusive for some reason, though.

But who wants to go the quantity instead of quality road will probably be quite happy with the Wii only,

*considers PS/N64 generation*

:lol @ the irony

Edit:

GCN could easily get cheap and nastly posrts of PS2/Xbox games, but even after 2 years some companies didn't bother with them even when previous entries had been on the console (eg Burnout 3). Last gen was supposed to be the multiplatform generation too, and the PS3 is doing far worse then the Gamecube.

Third-party mulitplatform games usually did worse on the GameCube, so publishers mostly stopped even trying. Historically, the Playstation has been much better to third-party developer games, but the PS3 is certainly not starting out that way. In May, a greater percentage of sales on the Wii in the U.S. were third-party than the PS3. In Japan, there's not even a comparison due to the massive install base difference.

The Wii is no PS2 when it comes to third-party sales, but the PS3 is looking very similar to the GameCube, so far. Maybe even worse. Rogue Squadron was a big selling, third-party launch title on the GameCube. The PS3 doesn't even have that.

 

[D.Lo]

The Wii is no PS2 when it comes to third-party sales, but the PS3 is looking very similar to the GameCube, so far.

True, but get back to me again when the Wii has a single AAA 3rd party game. We can't exactly compare last gen ports like Dragonball, games like Tony Hawk's Downhill turd and Red bloody Steel to the PS2s Final Fantasy X and MGS2.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

that's because the games never rolled in on the Gamecube :lol

We could go circular and say that since the games weren't huge on GameCube, the GameCube by definition wasn't receiving huge games. Still; mew Mario, Zelda, Tales, Resident Evil, and FF subseries are (or were) pretty notable names in Japan that arrived from summer 2002 through summer 2003. I'd place them against the Japanese notables likely to hit PS3 through summer 2008.

 

[Dragona Akehi]

I see quetz quit the NPD thread and decided to play here instead.

 

[Juwanna Peezadis]

But who wants to go the quantity instead of quality road will probably be quite happy with the PS2 only. . .

HMMM. . .

Sony fanboys are the new Nintendo fanboys confirmed.

 

[quetz67]

I see quetz quit the NPD thread and decided to play here instead.

no, thanks, just commented on the most hilarious stuff and out again. but if you want to ban me you are welcome...maybe until PS3 beats the Wii ?!

 

[Taurus]

no, thanks, just commented on the most hilarious stuff and out again. but if you want to ban me you are welcome...maybe until PS3 beats the Wii ?!

So you are commenting your own comments?

 

[Aeris130]

So you are commenting your own comments?

PS3 sales perhaps?

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

no, thanks, just commented on the most hilarious stuff and out again. but if you want to ban me you are welcome...maybe until PS3 beats the Wii ?!

I'm sure she doesn't want to permaban you, hoss.

 

[Pureauthor]

The problem is, he's good for a laugh in small doses, but he rarely ever leaves fast enough for us to experience his... ahem, unique view of things in small doses.

 

[donny2112]

I'm sure she doesn't want to permaban you, hoss.

 

[Haunted]

I'm sure she doesn't want to permaban you, hoss.

*BAM!*

 

[Brofist]

Wow, kpop was always pretty hateful, but that statement is just really off.

hateful? well that's a new one

I was a little extreme I'll say that. But I was really commenting on 3rd party softs. I bought a GC very late in it's lifespan, and picked up all the games I wanted to play for it on the cheap. I'd say about 80% of those amounted to 1st party games. I have to believe that the PS3 is on better grounds than the GC ever was as far as 3rd party games. The big surprise this gen is the 360 which is turning into a 3rd party powerhouse with new IPs.

 

[Brofist]

You're assuming third parties are still essential to the Wii's success.

I wasn't even speaking of the Wii though (which coincidentally has better 3rd party support than the GC anyway if not because of Square Enix support alone)

 

[Datschge]

So when is their output finally appearing while the PS3 (and PSP for that matter) needs it?

 

[jarrod]

True, but get back to me again when the Wii has a single AAA 3rd party game. We can't exactly compare last gen ports like Dragonball, games like Tony Hawk's Downhill turd and Red bloody Steel to the PS2s Final Fantasy X and MGS2.

But it took 1.5 years for PS2 to get those sorts of games... hell, it took a full year for Onimusha to show up even.

Wii's looking pretty good for the summer already with DQ Swords. Then there's also some decent filler with stuff like Gundam Sensen 0079, Dewey's Adventure, Puyo Puyo, Ghost Squad, Momotarou Denetsu 16, Powapuro Wii, GGXXAC, DBZ Sparkling Meteor, No More Heroes, Zak & Wiki, etc, etc.

 

[Phife Dawg]

HMMM. . .

Sony fanboys are the new Nintendo fanboys confirmed.

This is rather hilarious indeed.

 

[P90]

HMMM. . .

Sony fanboys are the new Nintendo fanboys confirmed.

Nintendo fanboys are coming close to being the new sony fanboys also.


MS fanboys are just dirt. They don't matter and never will. Xbox is the Cleveland of video games.

 

[Neo C.]

Nintendo fanboys are coming close to being the new sony fanboys also.

After 10 years damage controls, they hopefully know that Nintendo won't last forever on the bright side.

 

[XiaNaphryz]

After 10 years damage controls, they hopefully know that Nintendo won't last forever on the bright side.

Which is probably why they're trying to get as many digs in now as possible...

 

[GrimReaper]

Who thinks software support will just all leave PS3 and go to Nintendo is stupid past believe. Game support will split up between PS3/360 and Wii (to say it the hard way, most low profile games will go to the Wii, most ambitious teams trying to push boundaries will develop for 360/PS3).

Games will sell on Wii, no question, but the fight for 3rd party game sales will be a tough one against overshadowing first party games and the load of crap games from other 3rd parties. Quality 3rd party games will in many cases be overlooked or just be crushed by some stupid mini game collections.

PS3 (and 360) will of course loose exclusives as the high development costs wont be returned from one platform alone (probably we will see some watered down ports to Wii to make some quick money, which will in most cases probably be totally different games by different teams) but as much as a PS3 exclusive makes no sense any longer it is the same for 360 exclusives (besides huge money hats).

Add to that PC games that are of course developed for the latest in hardware (they dont care about a last gen video game console), those who will be ported will be either ported to PS3/360 alone or to Wii in addition to that (besides a bunch of Point&Click adventures that will grace the Wii)

Anyway, even if the Wii gets the majority of games this time, I can see which teams the talented and ambitious programmers and artist will go to. Actually I think the Sega quote about games looking dated is probably not that much targeted at gamers, but a problem to find enough developers willing to code for last gen hardware any longer.

But who wants to go the quantity instead of quality road will probably be quite happy with the Wii only, it is nice to join the masses and I am sure some of the Nintendo 1st party games will really shine (even a lot if you include the rehashes like Mario Party)

and to join the dicussion a little more on point. I think Sony's studios alone can and will put out more high profile games than the GC had last gen (I loved my GC and its 'high profile games', but were there more than a dozen or so?)

http://www.ps3forums.com/

 

[donny2112]

Does this sound about right to everyone?

In a few months (September or October), both the 360 and the WII will be at/over 10 million sold to consumers worldwide. At that same time, the PS3 will have about 4-4.5 million sold to consumers worldwide.

Entering Fall 2007:
360 ~ 40%
WII ~ 40%
PS3 ~ 20%

 

[starship]

nvm.

 

[Brak]

Does this sound about right to everyone?

In a few months (September or October), both the 360 and the WII will be at/over 10 million sold to consumers worldwide. At that same time, the PS3 will have about 4-4.5 million sold to consumers worldwide.

Entering Fall 2007:
360 ~ 40%
WII ~ 40%
PS3 ~ 20%

Some very rough math that I just did...

360 LTD ~ 9.5 million
Wii LTD ~ 8 million
PS3 LTD ~ 3.5 million

Monthly worldwide sales (unlikely to change for the summer other than a production increase for the Wii)
360 ~ 250K/month
Wii ~ 1 million/month
PS3 ~ 250K/month

Predicted Totals as of September 1, 2007 (LTD + June, July, August)
360 ~ 10.25 million
Wii ~ 11 million
PS3 ~ 4.25 million

I'd say that you're pretty much bang on. Everything will start changing in September though with the big releases starting to hit.

 

[Grampa Simpson]

Does this sound about right to everyone?

In a few months (September or October), both the 360 and the WII will be at/over 10 million sold to consumers worldwide. At that same time, the PS3 will have about 4-4.5 million sold to consumers worldwide.

Entering Fall 2007:
360 ~ 40%
WII ~ 40%
PS3 ~ 20%

I know the numbers are not really available, but extrapolate out another year. Would I be very off to think Wii at 25mil, 360 at 15, and PS3 at about 10?

Entering Fall 2008:
WII ~ 50%
360 ~ 30%
PS3 ~ 20%

 

[donny2112]

Would I be very off to think Wii at 25mil, 360 at 15, and PS3 at about 10?

I think the 360 might be higher (18 million?) following a price drop (this year or next Spring) and Halo 3/GTA4 this fall. Wii and PS3 look pretty reasonable to me, though.

 

[Link]

Who thinks software support will just all leave PS3 and go to Nintendo is stupid past believe. Game support will split up between PS3/360 and Wii (to say it the hard way, most low profile games will go to the Wii, most ambitious teams trying to push boundaries will develop for 360/PS3).

Games will sell on Wii, no question, but the fight for 3rd party game sales will be a tough one against overshadowing first party games and the load of crap games from other 3rd parties. Quality 3rd party games will in many cases be overlooked or just be crushed by some stupid mini game collections.

PS3 (and 360) will of course loose exclusives as the high development costs wont be returned from one platform alone (probably we will see some watered down ports to Wii to make some quick money, which will in most cases probably be totally different games by different teams) but as much as a PS3 exclusive makes no sense any longer it is the same for 360 exclusives (besides huge money hats).

Add to that PC games that are of course developed for the latest in hardware (they dont care about a last gen video game console), those who will be ported will be either ported to PS3/360 alone or to Wii in addition to that (besides a bunch of Point&Click adventures that will grace the Wii)

Anyway, even if the Wii gets the majority of games this time, I can see which teams the talented and ambitious programmers and artist will go to. Actually I think the Sega quote about games looking dated is probably not that much targeted at gamers, but a problem to find enough developers willing to code for last gen hardware any longer.

But who wants to go the quantity instead of quality road will probably be quite happy with the Wii only, it is nice to join the masses and I am sure some of the Nintendo 1st party games will really shine (even a lot if you include the rehashes like Mario Party)

and to join the dicussion a little more on point. I think Sony's studios alone can and will put out more high profile games than the GC had last gen (I loved my GC and its 'high profile games', but were there more than a dozen or so?)

Stop ruining threads.


EDIT -

no, thanks, just commented on the most hilarious stuff and out again. but if you want to ban me you are welcome...maybe until PS3 beats the Wii ?!

Take him up on that offer, Dragona!

 

[AdmiralViscen]

I know the numbers are not really available, but extrapolate out another year. Would I be very off to think Wii at 25mil, 360 at 15, and PS3 at about 10?

Entering Fall 2008:
WII ~ 50%
360 ~ 30%
PS3 ~ 20%

360 will be over 15 million by October 2008.

 

[schuelma]

360 will be over 15 million by October 2008.

Definitely..probably will be at or above 15M after Christmas.

 

[legend166]

I'm still interested to hear how quetz believes the PS3 will sell 60 million consoles this generation.

 

[Galactic Fork]

Definitely..probably will be at or above 15M after Christmas.

Just how big a christmas do you expect it to have?

 

[Grampa Simpson]

So, alternatively,

Wii - 25mil
360 - 18mil
PS3 - 10mil

Wii - 47%
360 - 34%
PS3 - 19%

 

[schuelma]

Just how big a christmas do you expect it to have?

Well, let's say its at 9.4M right now.


June- 300K
July- 300K
August- 300K
September- Halo bump??? (500-600k??)
October- GTA bump? (same??)
November/December- Holiday's (think in the U.S alone it moved nearly 2M in November/December)

 

[donny2112]

Definitely..probably will be at or above 15M after Christmas.

In 1.5 years (and two Christmases), it has sold ~9.5 million, and you think it will sell 5.5 million worldwide in the next 7 months? You do realize that it's only selling decently in 1.5 territories, right?

Wait. Are you assuming there will be a $100 price drop around E3 this year?

That could do it. It just doesn't make sense unless Sony drops their price. Microsoft is trying for a profit in FY08, and the best way to do that is to keep the current price through the holidays. They won't sell as much hardware, but they have already beaten who they set out to beat in the U.S. (Sony). Therefore, a price drop just serves to cut their chances of being profitable this FY.

Edit:

June- 300K
July- 300K
August- 300K
September- Halo bump??? (500-600k??)
October- GTA bump? (same??)
November/December- Holiday's (think in the U.S alone it moved nearly 2M in November/December)

Assuming no price drop, I'd say it's more reasonable ...

WW:
June - 275K
July - 225K
August - 225K
September - 700K
October - 500K
Nov/Dec - 2.5 million

That's 4.4 million worldwide through the end of the year. That's just my guess, though.

 

[schuelma]

In 2.5 years (and two Christmases), it has sold ~9.5 million, and you think it will sell 5.5 million worldwide in the next 7 months? You do realize that it's only selling decently in 1.5 territories, right?

Wait. Are you assuming there will be a $100 price drop around E3 this year?

That could do it. It just doesn't make sense unless Sony drops their price. Microsoft is trying for a profit in FY08, and the best way to do that is to keep the current price through the holidays. They won't sell as much hardware, but they have already beaten who they set out to beat in the U.S. (Sony). Therefore, a price drop just serves to cut their chances of being profitable this FY.

I'm just guessing their going to have a monster September through December in America. I mean didn't they sell about 2M in the Holiday season in the U.S last year, without Halo and GTA?

 

[schuelma]

Edit:


Assuming no price drop, I'd say it's more reasonable ...

WW:
June - 275K
July - 225K
August - 225K
September - 600K
October - 400K
Nov/Dec - 2.5 million

That's 4.2 million worldwide through the end of the year. That's just my guess, though.

Well at this point I think we're splitting hairs at some level. It may not reach 15M, especially with no price drop, but I think it may be pretty close.

 

[donny2112]

I'm just guessing their going to have a monster September through December in America. I mean didn't they sell about 2M in the Holiday season in the U.S last year, without Halo and GTA?

The theory is that there's only so many people who will bite at $400. They sold 1.6 million in Nov/Dec in the U.S. last year. The 360 will be lucky to keep that total this year with Halo 3/GTAIV. Specifically since so many should finally bite on the system when those two games are actually released.

Edit:

Well at this point I think we're splitting hairs at some level.

Agreed. I peg it at only 1-1.5 million short of 15 by the end of the year. With a price drop early next year, it should be able to hit 15 pretty quickly, though.

Edit2:
Here's a chart showing how the 360 is tracking below its 2006 levels (it was in shortage until April). This is most likely due to 1) increased competition and 2) running out of buyers at the $400 level.

 

[Galactic Fork]

Well, let's say its at 9.4M right now.


June- 300K
July- 300K
August- 300K
September- Halo bump??? (500-600k??)
October- GTA bump? (same??)
November/December- Holiday's (think in the U.S alone it moved nearly 2M in November/December)

Without clear numbers for europe, i can't be sure, but I think your european predictions are too optimistic. And how big of a boost to hardware do you think Halo 3 is going to get? I will go out on a limb and say that Halo 3 will be huge in terms of software sales, but not as big of a hardware boost as a lot of people think. I would say a large portion of people who bought an XBox because of Halo have already bought a 360.

Guess we'll see in a few months.

 

[schuelma]

Without clear numbers for europe, i can't be sure, but I think your european predictions are too optimistic. And how big of a boost to hardware do you think Halo is going to get? I will go out on a limb and say that Halo will be huge in terms of software sales, but not as big of a hardware boost as a lot of people think. I would say a large portion of people who bought an XBox because of Halo have already bought a 360.

Guess we'll see in a few months.

Yeah I could definitely be off. I do think a ton of casuals will cause a decent spike when Halo 3 and GTA come, but I could absolutely be wrong.

 

[titiklabingapat]

I'm just guessing their going to have a monster September through December in America. I mean didn't they sell about 2M in the Holiday season in the U.S last year, without Halo and GTA?

But they had Gear of War. I would say that GOW is worth about 70% that of Halo when it comes to hype, systems sold and game units sold.

 

[schuelma]

But they had Gear of War. I would say that GOW is worth about 70% that of Halo when it comes to hype, systems sold and game units sold.

Really? I know GOW was hyped, but Halo 3 is a mainstream event. Guess we'll see...

 

[Branduil]

There's no way the 360 sells 1.2 million in Sept/Oct without a price drop.

 

[Galactic Fork]

Yeah I could definitely be off. I do think a ton of casuals will cause a decent spike when Halo 3 and GTA come, but I could absolutely be wrong.

Like I said, I was going out on a limb myself. but I never even factored in GTA, those two together might procude a bit more noticeable bump. I just remember all the outlandish predictions last year. Even with its big sales, the 360 was way short of them.

It's weird, I always think of Halo as more of a hardcore series than a casual one.

 

[Thraktor]

A few tidbits of info on Wii Sports for those still reading the thread:

- As expected, after 6 months on the market, Wii Sports' attach rate to Wii hardware has started to decline slightly.

- Regardless, Wii Sports has now spent its first 28 weeks consecutively in the Media Create top 10, bringing it ahead of New Super Mario Brothers, which dropped out after 27 weeks.

- If you want to get a good idea of just how important Wii Sports is in Japan, consider this: If you were to take away every Wii owner who bought Wii Sports alongside his console, the remaining Wii sales would be barely scraping ahead of the PS3 at this point (982,085 to 919,513).

- There is evidence to suggest that Wii Sports sales are becoming independent of Wii hardware shipments. There have now been 5 successive weeks of sales at or just below 30k, with only miniscule correlation to hardware numbers.

 

[schuelma]

A few tidbits of info on Wii Sports for those still reading the thread:

- As expected, after 6 months on the market, Wii Sports' attach rate to Wii hardware has started to decline slightly.

- Regardless, Wii Sports has now spent its first 28 weeks consecutively in the Media Create top 10, bringing it ahead of New Super Mario Brothers, which dropped out after 27 weeks.

- If you want to get a good idea of just how important Wii Sports is in Japan, consider this: If you were to take away every Wii owner who bought Wii Sports alongside his console, the remaining Wii sales would be barely scraping ahead of the PS3 at this point (982,085 to 919,513).

- There is evidence to suggest that Wii Sports sales are becoming independent of Wii hardware shipments. There have now been 5 successive weeks of sales at or just below 30k, with only miniscule correlation to hardware numbers.

Thanks for that and I for one appreciate the analysis.

 

[ksamedi]

A few tidbits of info on Wii Sports for those still reading the thread:

- As expected, after 6 months on the market, Wii Sports' attach rate to Wii hardware has started to decline slightly.

- Regardless, Wii Sports has now spent its first 28 weeks consecutively in the Media Create top 10, bringing it ahead of New Super Mario Brothers, which dropped out after 27 weeks.

- If you want to get a good idea of just how important Wii Sports is in Japan, consider this: If you were to take away every Wii owner who bought Wii Sports alongside his console, the remaining Wii sales would be barely scraping ahead of the PS3 at this point (982,085 to 919,513).

- There is evidence to suggest that Wii Sports sales are becoming independent of Wii hardware shipments. There have now been 5 successive weeks of sales at or just below 30k, with only miniscule correlation to hardware numbers.

Nice, so core gamers are buying Wiis these days. I guess its because of the pull of the casuals and also the rise of more core gaming content. Either way, Nintendo will have a very balanced selection of titles end 2007 and i think that there will be a big push from the casual side and core side as well. Sales could really explode in 2008 if its not suply constrained.

 

[nli10]

A few tidbits of info on Wii Sports for those still reading the thread:



- As expected, after 6 months on the market, Wii Sports' attach rate to Wii hardware has started to decline slightly.

Like NSMB before it I think that the market of pick-up game 1 has been split by BBA Wii Degree. Love the trending on the graph, need a few more settling weeks to see if my theory pans out though - if the Wii Sports keeps to it's new slightly lower attach rate then a proportion of first timers are choosing the newer high profile game as their first game (see my NSMB sales graph in the first page of the last MC thread for a graphical representation of the relative sales dip from when FFIII was released).

 

[HyperionX]

One of the biggest mistakes you can make in predicting the future is to get short-term trends and extrapolate them to long-term trends. Although it is true that the less far in the future you're predicting, the more likely you'll be right, but you are bound to be wrong at some future point via this method. So all this projection of future sales is just making me ill, since so much of it is simply not going to happen, especially for those going years in advance.