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[legend166]

Uh, what?

That's the ONLY way to predict the future market.

By your logic, someone who says this is stupid:

"The Wii is currently selling at an amazing rate, and I see no reason for it slow down, so I predict it will continue to sell amazingly through 2008."

While someone who says this is smart:

"The PS3 is selling terrible, but I predict it will sell amazing through 2008."

 

[HyperionX]

Uh, what?

That's the ONLY way to predict the future market.

By your logic, someone who says this is stupid:

"The Wii is currently selling at an amazing rate, and I see no reason for it slow down, so I predict it will continue to sell amazingly through 2008."

While someone who says this is smart:

"The PS3 is selling terrible, but I predict it will sell amazing through 2008."

Tell that to everyone who bought tech stock in the late 90s.

 

[rikitikitik]

What doesn't agree with you is obviously wrong, of course.

 

[Deku]

One of the biggest mistakes you can make in predicting the future is to get short-term trends and extrapolate them to long-term trends. Although it is true that the less far in the future you're predicting, the more likely you'll be right, but you are bound to be wrong at some future point via this method. So all this projection of future sales is just making me ill, since so much of it is simply not going to happen, especially for those going years in advance.

That's absolutely right but people who say such things are usually the ones supporting some sort of miracle turnaround in trends and it suits them to say so!

I think the future is inherently unpredictable and I don't take seriously expensive studies issued by such and such analyst group purporting to tell me how many units a particular hardware brand might sell, based on assumed trends which in turn are built on other assumptions. Sometimes they get it right out of sheer luck but it doesn't make the actual study any more reasonable.

That said we can predict fairly accurately a few months out and in June 2007, there's not much that's going to change (given how uncertain what the impact of the new E3 will be), If anything is to change, we'll see it in the fall at the earliest when the products actually hit the market. So until then the hardware leaders will continue to accumulate their leads.

 

[HyperionX]

That's absolutely right but people who say such things are usually the ones supporting some sort of miracle turnaround in trends and it suits them to say so!

At the same time certain trends are guaranteed to stop in the future, even if it be can't predicted exactly. For instance, we know as a fact that human population growth on Earth will stop at some point in the future, even though the human population has continuously gone upwards for the last several hundred years. Context is important, and broadly generalizing all trend-naysayers as one kind is just as inaccurate as the predictions of the trend-followers.

I think the future is inherently unpredictable and I don't take seriously expensive studies issued by such and such analyst group purporting to tell me how many units a particular hardware brand might sell, based on assumed trends which in turn and built on other assumptions.

At the same time, you can't simply forget to unscrutinized your own guesses.

That said I we predict fairly accurately a few months out and in June 2007, there's no much that's going to change, at the very latest you'll see it in the fall. So until then the hardware leaders will continue to accumulate their leads.

That I can agree with.

 

[titiklabingapat]

A few tidbits of info on Wii Sports for those still reading the thread:

- As expected, after 6 months on the market, Wii Sports' attach rate to Wii hardware has started to decline slightly.

- Regardless, Wii Sports has now spent its first 28 weeks consecutively in the Media Create top 10, bringing it ahead of New Super Mario Brothers, which dropped out after 27 weeks.

- If you want to get a good idea of just how important Wii Sports is in Japan, consider this: If you were to take away every Wii owner who bought Wii Sports alongside his console, the remaining Wii sales would be barely scraping ahead of the PS3 at this point (982,085 to 919,513).

- There is evidence to suggest that Wii Sports sales are becoming independent of Wii hardware shipments. There have now been 5 successive weeks of sales at or just below 30k, with only miniscule correlation to hardware numbers.

In a way, the declining Wii Sports tie ratio is good because it demonstrates that people are starting to look outside of a few titles. And just in time for the glut of new and worthy Wii games too booth.

Wii Sports should still remain in the top 10 or 20 as supply kicks in gradually. I can see it doing 20k a week for 1-2 years regardless of any other release as it stabilize like NSMB and could experience spikes from time to time.

 

[Deku]

At the same time certain trends are guaranteed to stop in the future, even if it be can't predicted exactly. For instance, we know as a fact that human population growth on Earth will stop at some point in the future, even though the human population has continuously gone upwards for the last several hundred years. Context is important, and broadly generalizing all trend-naysayers as one kind is just as inaccurate as the predictions of the trend-followers.

I think we can be fairly modest here and consider Long-term trend predictions as 3-5 years. 6 month to 1 year for the short term trend predictions. We're dealing with a fairly fast paced business and a predictable rhythm of console cycles every 5 years or so.

At the same time, you can't simply forget to unscrutinized your own guesses.



That I can agree with.

I can agree to that.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

One of the biggest mistakes you can make in predicting the future is assuming that because you made a long-shot speculation correctly once, that you're always going to be right in the future.

 

[charlequin]

Tell that to everyone who bought tech stock in the late 90s.

You do understand that stock prices and console sales work on completely ****ing different principles, right?

Stock prices are a market-driven approximation of a company's value (based on their profitability, property and IP ownership, personnel and PR "value," and other things.) Some stock is bought to keep, but much of it is intended to be held short-term and resold. The market pressures that bear on it drive prices towards an equilibrium of the company's "real" value -- that means that all upwards motions, and any downwards motions that don't end in the company's collapse, will always correct towards an equilibrium eventually.

Console sales are an additive market. Console sales don't meaningfully reverse, in general; each system's total market sell-in only goes up over time. Because consoles provide meaningfully zero functionality in a vacuum, the primary driver of their sales is additional software; and because additional console sales will always improve software sales to some non-zero degree, these console sales will lead to increased software availability. This means that the equilibrium point of a system is to multiply its success or failure -- strong systems will do better and better, and weak systems will do worse and worse. This means that it becomes possible to predict broad trends quickly, and that only systems that are performing very similarly (early DS and PSP, or US SNES and Genesis during the entire generation) have a real risk of changing their performance drastically.

 

[HyperionX]

You do understand that stock prices and console sales work on completely ****ing different principles, right?

Stock prices are a market-driven approximation of a company's value (based on their profitability, property and IP ownership, personnel and PR "value," and other things.) Some stock is bought to keep, but much of it is intended to be held short-term and resold. The market pressures that bear on it drive prices towards an equilibrium of the company's "real" value -- that means that all upwards motions, and any downwards motions that don't end in the company's collapse, will always correct towards an equilibrium eventually.

Console sales are an additive market. Console sales don't meaningfully reverse, in general; each system's total market sell-in only goes up over time. Because consoles provide meaningfully zero functionality in a vacuum, the primary driver of their sales is additional software; and because additional console sales will always improve software sales to some non-zero degree, these console sales will lead to increased software availability. This means that the equilibrium point of a system is to multiply its success or failure -- strong systems will do better and better, and weak systems will do worse and worse. This means that it becomes possible to predict broad trends quickly, and that only systems that are performing very similarly (early DS and PSP, or US SNES and Genesis during the entire generation) have a real risk of changing their performance drastically.

Tell that to everyone who bought an HD-DVD player last year.

 

[GreenNight]

Tell that to everyone who bought an HD-DVD player last year.

Tell that to everyone who purchased DR-DOS

 

[felipeko]

Tell that to everyone who bought an HD-DVD player last year.

Can you use a console example?
Like "Tell that to everyone who bought an NES, SNES, PS1, PS2..."?

PS1vsN64 is the only one that didn't have a normal trend.. but once it was set, it was all done.

 

[HyperionX]

Can you use a console example?
Like "Tell that to everyone who bought an NES, SNES, PS1, PS2..."?

PS1vsN64 is the only one that didn't have a normal trend.. but once it was set, it was all done.

There are no ideal console examples. However, like you said N64's first year was way better than PS1's first year.

 

[charlequin]

Tell that to everyone who bought an HD-DVD player last year.

This means that it becomes possible to predict broad trends quickly, and that only systems that are performing very similarly (early DS and PSP, or US SNES and Genesis during the entire generation) have a real risk of changing their performance drastically.

Neither HD-DVD nor BluRay demonstrated a pattern of active success in the early stages of the race; they, in fact, were very similar to DS and PSP, with both underperforming while consumers waited for more information and for impressions from early adopters. Once the software situation fell out unambiguously in BluRay's favor the gap widened and now there isn't much that can change the outcome. This is actually exactly what I was talking about.

There are no ideal console examples. However, like you said N64's first year was way better than PS1's first year.

The entire point is that the amount of success is important. N64 had a good first year in the US but came out after the PSX was already picking up steam, and it never performed well in Japan -- and it never had a commanding lead over PS1, or big name titles selling very well while comparably big name titles on PS1 were failing.

The Wii situation is totally different specifically because of the magnitude of the sales difference (in both US and Japan), and the measurably small effects of individual big-name software titles on PS3 sales.

 

[HyperionX]

Neither HD-DVD nor BluRay demonstrated a pattern of active success in the early stages of the race; they, in fact, were very similar to DS and PSP, with both underperforming while consumers waited for more information and for impressions from early adopters. Once the software situation fell out unambiguously in BluRay's favor the gap widened and now there isn't much that can change the outcome. This is actually exactly what I was talking about.

Now you're just making stuff up. HD-DVD outsold Blu-ray 2 to 1 in 2006.

The entire point is that the amount of success is important. N64 had a good first year in the US but came out after the PSX was already picking up steam, and it never performed well in Japan -- and it never had a commanding lead over PS1, or big name titles selling very well while comparably big name titles on PS1 were failing.

The Wii situation is totally different specifically because of the magnitude of the sales difference (in both US and Japan), and the measurably small effects of individual big-name software titles on PS3 sales.

Explain the success of the SNES then.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Now you're just making stuff up. HD-DVD outsold Blu-ray 2 to 1 in 2006.

Source on this?

Explain the success of the SNES then.

I'm not sure what that has to do with what you quoted?

 

[Jokeropia]

Now you're just making stuff up. HD-DVD outsold Blu-ray 2 to 1 in 2006.

Uh, maybe because HD-DVD launched early 2006 and Blu-Ray near the end of the year.

Explain the success of the SNES then.

What's there to explain? Thanks to being completely uncontested in Japan, it started making up ground from day 1 worldwide.

 

[HyperionX]

Source on this?

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=798080

Note: HD-DVD consistently outsold Blu-ray week on week for most of 2006.

I'm not sure what that has to do with what you quoted?

Perhaps I should have said "Why did the SNES outsell the Genesis?" The Gen vs. SNES was the same as the PS1 vs. N64, only that the Gen did lose its lead and PS1 did not.

 

[Narag]

Uh, maybe because HD-DVD launched early 2006 and Blu-Ray near the end of the year.

I was just about to post this.

 

[Jokeropia]

Perhaps I should have said "Why did the SNES outsell the Genesis?" The Gen vs. SNES was the same as the PS1 vs. N64, only that the Gen did lose its lead and PS1 did not.

Wrong, wrong, wrong. The Genesis was a complete nonfactor in Japan which prevented it from gaining a commanding worldwide lead before the SNES was released. Thanks to the complete support of the Japanese market, SNES then started making up ground from day 1 worldwide and never broke that pace.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=798080

Note: HD-DVD consistently outsold Blu-ray week on week for most of 2006.

Oh wow, a whole other industry's Sales Age! It's hard to get a good picture of what went on with the weekly data only shown back to the beginning of the year there, though I imagine the 2006 data is archived somewhere. Considering Blu-ray was starting the year off with greater than 2/3 share each week, though, I imagine Blu-ray had to be doing well at the end of 2006. More specifically I'd guess the PS3 had a lot to do with that.

I think charlequin's point remains: Neither HD-DVD or Blu-ray are very successful now, let alone in their first few months in 2006. Format Z selling more than Format Y isn't really a "pattern of active success" when it's still only doing 1% as well as Format D.

Perhaps I should have said "Why did the SNES outsell the Genesis?" The Gen vs. SNES was the same as the PS1 vs. N64, only that the Gen did lose its lead and PS1 did not.

It's not the same as PS1 vs N64. Nintendo didn't make a major hardware fumble with SNES. Sega didn't capture exclusives on the level of Final Fantasy. HAD Nintendo fumbled, Sega wasn't cemented as the alternative worldwide, with PC Engine being more popular than Genesis in Japan.

Uh, maybe because HD-DVD launched early 2006 and Blu-Ray near the end of the year.

I'm sure that plays a part, but it's not as big a difference as "early versus "near the end" makes it sound. HD-DVD was April, Blu-ray was June.

 

[donny2112]

One of the biggest mistakes you can make in predicting the future is to get short-term trends and extrapolate them to long-term trends. Although it is true that the less far in the future you're predicting, the more likely you'll be right, but you are bound to be wrong at some future point via this method.

We're predicting anywhere from 3 months to about 15 months into the future. Will we be wrong? Yes. By how much? That's to be seen. Doesn't invalidate the fun of trying to reasonably guess where we'll be in 3-15 months time.

So all this projection of future sales is just making me ill, since so much of it is simply not going to happen, especially for those going years in advance.

Get. Over. It.

We're doing this for fun, so it making you physically ill is a ridiculous notion. You must hate it when NASA tries to predict the weather for a space launch months in advance.

Tell that to everyone who bought tech stock in the late 90s.

Yes, because seeing how systems have sold for the last six months and guessing how they will sell for the next 3 months is totally the same thing as risking tons of money on companies with a ridiculously high price to earnings ratio. Tech stocks deserved to crash. Who in their right minds thought that people would buy pet food and supplies online with added shipping instead of going to the local store? Much less actually make a profit doing it.

"Did you know that disco record sales were up 400% for the year ending 1976? If these trends continue... AAY!"

Wrong, wrong, wrong. The Genesis was a complete nonfactor in Japan which prevented it from gaining a commanding worldwide lead before the SNES was released. Thanks to the complete support of the Japanese market, SNES then started making up ground from day 1 worldwide and never broke that pace.

That seems familiar somehow. What other console got a head start, never made an impact in Japan, and looks to give up its sales lead very soon? Hmmm.

:lol

 

[Haunted]

good post, donny.

"Did you know that disco record sales were up 400% for the year ending 1976? If these trends continue... AAY!"

:lol

 

[Grampa Simpson]

That seems familiar somehow. What other console got a head start, never made an impact in Japan, and looks to give up its sales lead very soon? Hmmm.

:lol

Oh cool. I finally have a good comparison for the 360.

 

[PantherLotus]

Holy shitballs hyperionx is posting in sales threads again.

 

[HyperionX]

Holy shitballs hyperionx is posting in sales threads again.

To laugh at people apparently.

 

[Grampa Simpson]

To laugh at people apparently.

To laugh at or be laughed at, it's all the same in the end. Laughter.

 

[AdmiralViscen]

I personally don't make any predictions beyond October 2007.

Tell that to everyone who bought an HD-DVD player last year.

Blu Ray wasn't out for most of last year. All the major players are out now, and establishing trends for 8 months.

Sony dudes were happy to predict that PS3 would quickly outsell 360 within months of launch, a year ago. Now they tell people to slow down with predictions.

 

[Oblivion]

So all this projection of future sales is just making me ill, since so much of it is simply not going to happen, especially for those going years in advance.

You really should inform the authorities about those crazed Nintendo fans who have broken into your home, and forcing you to read the media create threads at gunpoint.

 

[Link]

To laugh at or be laughed at, it's all the same in the end. Laughter.

Well, you can't spell slaughter without laughter.

 

[Grampa Simpson]

Well, you can't spell slaughter without laughter.

 

[Vinnk]

Another week, another report. So what should I look for this time?

 

[Grampa Simpson]

Another week, another report. So what should I look for this time?

15 minutes. No response. RE4 again I guess. I'm really curious if there's a restock happening. Otherwise just the usual.

 

[RiskyChris]

Another week, another report. So what should I look for this time?

Ouendan 2, Trusty Bell (?), RE4

 

[apujanata]

Another week, another report. So what should I look for this time?

RE4, Ninja Gaiden Sigma, Trusty Bell, Wii, Harvest Moon Wii. (you can drop the DSL, unless you suddenly noticed that it is supply constrained again)

 

[Jokeropia]

To laugh at people apparently.

Just like you used to laugh at people who predicted the Wii would sell well after the launch period? For someone who complains about people making "unsubstantiated" predictions, you sure make some stupid ones yourself:

Mine:

US: Sony, MS
Japan: Sony, MS
Europe: Sony, MS

Nintendo out of the console race.

At least some of the "Wii will bomb" insisters from those olds threads have owned up to their mistakes.

 

[Taurus]

Mine:

US: Sony, MS
Japan: Sony, MS
Europe: Sony, MS

Nintendo out of the console race.

 

[Deku]

Surprised it was posted so recently. Though I could see a potential response saying it was merely a joke post, which it could be. I mean it's not that hard to wiggle out of an old argument, it's harder to say 'i was wrong' for most people and on the internets, it's easier to just pretend you're right all the time.

 

[Jokeropia]

You just need to check out the rest of his post history to realize that it's not a joke post. He even made a subsequent comment defending that very prediction:

So are you saying you have a crystal ball? My predictions are as credible as yours.

EDIT: When I say something has been canceled, it automatically defaults to last. Wouldn't be surprised if lifetime shipments of Wii in Japan exceed X360 though.

It seems quite evident that it's not the act of predicting itself he has a problem with, it's the fact that our predictions (being based on the actual market climate) are positive for Nintendo and negative for Sony.

 

[apujanata]

Just like you used to laugh at people who predicted the Wii would sell well after the launch period? For someone who complains about people making "unsubstantiated" predictions, you sure make some stupid ones yourself:At least some of the "Wii will bomb" insisters from those olds threads have owned up to their mistakes.

I thought HyperionX is a joke account / trolling account ? I don't think anyone in their right mind will make a joke post on Feb 07 about Nintendo out of the console race. It might happen in 06, but not on 07.

 

[Starchasing]

HyperionX

I hope you keep posting on sales threads for a while... i want to see for how long you can make stupid comparations to support your lunatic fanatism. Comparing the stock market with console sales was awesome... i cant wait for more. There was a book written by a teacher with the most absurd answers he got to see on exams. I love it , it was hillarious.

 

[CowGirl]

One of the biggest mistakes you can make in predicting the future is assuming that because you made a long-shot speculation correctly once, that you're always going to be right in the future.

ZING!

 

[speedpop]

Another week, another report. So what should I look for this time?

An Ouendan 2 update would be nice. Just to see if stock is being replenished or it's just gone.

 

[Kafel]

Another week, another report. So what should I look for this time?

This one please : http://mizuirochang.jp/

It really looks crazy and could be a good surprise.

 

[Mr Killemgood]

Someone inform me, the stupid person:

Where can you find release dates for Xbox 360 games in Japan, or any game for that matter? Cheesemiester always has a great list, but I've never been able to find any lists myself. I'm not proficient in Kanji, but I know there are translators for that.

 

[Jokeropia]

Someone inform me, the stupid person:

Where can you find release dates for Xbox 360 games in Japan, or any game for that matter? Cheesemiester always has a great list, but I've never been able to find any lists myself. I'm not proficient in Kanji, but I know there are translators for that.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/console/xbox360/releases.html

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

Uh, what?

That's the ONLY way to predict the future market.

By your logic, someone who says this is stupid:

"The Wii is currently selling at an amazing rate, and I see no reason for it slow down, so I predict it will continue to sell amazingly through 2008."

While someone who says this is smart:

"The PS3 is selling terrible, but I predict it will sell amazing through 2008."

Simply I think that there is no way to predict the future. History tell us exactly that anything can happen.
For now, the numbers say that Nintendo is ahead by a wide margin and that it is reaching Xbox360's LTD pretty quickly. The rest, is only speculation.

 

[nli10]

This one please : http://mizuirochang.jp/

It really looks crazy and could be a good surprise.

"Join us or DIE!" :lol

We can't predict the future

Predictions by definition do not have to be correct.

A prediction is a statement or claim that a particular event will occur in the future in more certain terms than a forecast.

Saying that predictions tend not to be correct, or that predictions are never correct is also incorrect. It depends on the particular sales event being examined. No one can know that the Wii will still be outselling the X360 & PS3 combined this time next year in Japan, but they can predict a likely outcome and then we can measure their success.

For sales data forecasting is far more sensible term - we don't claim to know what will occur at these set points, but we can make best guess estimations based on previous results and knowledge of future events (big releases/holidays).

The big problem with sales forecasting is that we don't really know the after effects of certain market forces such as "gunda-bumps".

Will the X360 continue to sell more games after Trusty Bell week as more people have the machines, or will Japan seemingly abandon their X360 to the preowned sections as after Blue Dragon?
Will the PSP continue to gradually rise in overall average monthly sales to become the success Sony hoped it would, or are all the Square games keeping demand high for only a short time?

While the professional analysts have more data than us their predictions are rarely based on more than either a belief that the market tends to stay the same, or a belief that the market goes in cycles - these two prevailing views are echoed here.

The big problem for analysts is that Nintendo is not selling its consoles to the same market that Sony & Microsoft are.
The DS is a brilliant example as it's two lead games (Brain Training & NSMB) are selling to very different markets for very different reasons - sure the hardcore gamers will already have both and have moved on, but the way the sales of these titles fluctuate over the weeks is very interesting.


Oh - and I still stand by my interpretation of the drop in Wii Sports attach rate - Big Brain Academy is stealing some of it's 'first game picked-up' status these past few weeks.

 

[Phife Dawg]

This one please : http://mizuirochang.jp/

It really looks crazy and could be a good surprise.

Is this the japanese "Happy Tree Friends"? Characters looks a bit like those from that druming game.

 

[D.Lo]

While the professional analysts have more data than us their predictions are rarely based on more than either a belief that the market tends to stay the same, or a belief that the market goes in cycles - these two prevailing views are echoed here.

I don't think they do, at least not all of them. How else do you explain this monstrosity, claiming the PSP will 'turn it around dramatically' based on 'interoperability with the PS3'.

If they were to predict things stay the same as they are now, then they'd take 2006's sales and extrapolate that out four years. But for some reason many analysts seem to have an undying hope in Sony, despite two years or consolidated incompetence.