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Media Create Sales: 7/23 - 7/29
- Thread starter cvxfreak
- Start date
LanceStern
Banned
In the case of It's a Wonderful World,
I'm seeing some calves right now. It debuted at 83k, excellent for a brand new IP, and now during a slow week did over 40k, topping a 122 THOUSAND LTD. It's a good hint that it might do very well in the long run. 200k no problem, 300k just might be in reach as well.
It was a success from the get go
I'm seeing some calves right now. It debuted at 83k, excellent for a brand new IP, and now during a slow week did over 40k, topping a 122 THOUSAND LTD. It's a good hint that it might do very well in the long run. 200k no problem, 300k just might be in reach as well.
It was a success from the get go
Jonnyram said:Wow, MinGol really tanked... I guess Clap Hanz will be the first studio Sony sells when they go third party
I was wondering when the "PS3 going 3rd party" quotes would start. If it means Team Ico games on the 360, I'm all for it.
LanceStern said:
120k is what it should have sold the first week. That would have been 60% of it's shipment, and probably been classed as a success by S-E.
Also, it will be difficult for IAWW to sell more than 200k LTD, because that's what the initial shipment was. They'd have to sell all of that, and then pick up in popularity so that more retail orders would be made. It will likely make 200k LTD, but I doubt it'll exceed it by much.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
LanceStern said:
Yeah except for the fact that in order to sell the 40k, the price was massively reduced, and as ethelred has said about a billion times, it's quite unlikely retailers are going to order more stock of a game that requires a massive price reduction to sell.
Again, there's a hierarchy of bomba. There's Dewy's Adventure bomba where stores don't order your product, Seiken Densetsu 4 bomba where stores order stock, it doesn't sell, they reduce price, and it still doesn't sell, Heroes of Mana / IAWW bomba where stores order stock, it doesn't sell enough, they reduce price, and it does sell, and then Non-Bomba where a game fulfills retailers expectations and probably gets another order.
You can look at it another way; at 122k LTD, the game managed to sell 60% of its order in two weeks. Assuming it sells another 40k per week (not dropping at all for the next two weeks), it will have taken one month to turn around the inventory. This is not a situation retailers like.
LanceStern
Banned
Sharp said:
Percentages aren't the big thing here.
For a new IP I think 83k first week on a handheld and then another 40k the second week is great "calves".
justchris said:
A lot of games should have sold something, but they don't, that's just what happens. SE has neither deemed it a success nor a failure, that's GAF and I believe someone from 1up.
I don't think it'll be hard. It's at 120k right now and it is definitely *mark me on this* going to stay on the charts for at least another 2 weeks, which equals another 40k topping the LTD at 180k.
By the end of the year, if it drops off, we'll have the Famitsu half chart by the end of the year, and it'll be just like about 20 or so other DS titles on the Q2 2007. Some have boosted their LTD as drastically as 60 - 120k.
Stumkapow said:
Point well taken. And if it is that case, then a 200k LTD is just as good for a new IP on the DS. It's made a profit, it's sold above average more than most DS titles in Japan, and it will show that well-budgeted titles that have some development time spent on them can sell.
I don't think IAWW's price drop was as widespread as sinobi first hinted. He certainly seemed to take it back in this week's summary. But it's pretty obvious the game is not selling that well when the bundle is still in stock in lots of places... usually bundles sell out quickly because the DS hardware is so hard to get hold of too. Having said that, DSs are becoming slightly easier to get hold of these days - though they are mostly sold out, the restock times are becoming more predictable.
It's not nice to lie.Gahiggidy said:
http://www.gpara.com/ranking/mediacreatebn/ranking_20070809.php
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
LanceStern said:
SE also did not deem Seiken Densetsu 4 a failure, but it absolutely is. Hell, Microsoft has yet to deem the 360 or the XBOX a failure in Japan. "Solid, if not spectacular".
It's not about whether the game made a profit or it's good for a new IP on the DS in general. It's about whether or not it's good for an in-house Square Enix IP (which based on previous IPs, it's not) developed by big names, and it's about whether or not retailers will gain confidence in experimental Square Enix IPs. Retailers are not going to be / are not currently happy about this game.
LanceStern
Banned
Stumpokapow said:
Am I going to have to take out the quotes where everyone told me flat out that profits == success?
And it's not for you to determine whether it's a success for Square Enix IPs, just what they say, which they haven't said yet and I doubt they ever will. There's no way I'm going to restate how the market was different back then with a different userbase and how they were RPGs and what not which justifies IAWW's first and second week sales.... it's redundant (the word I'm looking for)
Just I am happy with IAWW's second week sales, and it looks like it's LTD will be very solid, if not spectacular. Rhird week should be awesome as well.
I'm not taking sides here, but IAWW is a successful game for what it is. It's highly stylized, based on modern youth culture, and set in a real-life location - all of these factors hugely limit the audience compared to an all out original RPG like Chrono Cross or Xenogears. I think the game's doing quite well for what it is, and I doubt the budget came close to the old PS1 games either.
LanceStern
Banned
Jonnyram said:
It's just like the Media Create forum "veterans" to always join together and attack the dissenting opinion everytime I think something is different or succeeds/fails and a few of the MC veterans disagree I get jumped on and no-one steps up and speaks out that the dissenting opinion might be right no not even right but that they share a similar opinion as the dissenter for once can't you guys get off the group think and....
Wait what?
LanceStern said:
Having not really paid attention to your argument, I can't back you up, but I do sympathize with you on the group think thing though. There is a lot of that going on. I think part of that comes from a lot of people's inability to argue properly, so it's easy to get together, squash an idea, laugh about it, and move on.....you know...keep things simple.
DeadyFernGarden
Member
Hands up who wants an expose interview with a photo of LanceStern in his lounge?
LanceStern said:
From my Famitsu database, I have :
Sengoku Musou at 1,024,253
Dynasty Warriors 5 Xtreme Legends : 355,296
Samurai Warriors 2 (Sengoku Musou 2) : 562,320
Shin Sangoku Musou 3 Empires : 316,763 (might not be the most updated data).
since I was not updating my data from 2005-2006, I might miss some game.
From my older dengeki data :
Shin Sangoku Musou 3 : 1,158,464
Shin Sangoku Musou 2 : 976,866
Shin Sangoku Musou 2 Mushoden : 778,782
Shin Sangoku Musou 3 : Mushouden : 448,936
Pureauthor
Member
Look, we have 2 crystal clear indications that IAWW is not performing to expectations.
1) It sold 40% of the initial order in the 1st week. Games that are considered to 'sell well' generally sell through 60+% of the order.
2) Prices have 'collapsed', and this occurred during the first week. You don't need to be a genius to know that prices falling so soon is not a good sign.
And Lance, by your logic of 'we must wait until they say it's a failure before deeming it one', by that logic, 99.9999% of all products released on the market are successful.
1) It sold 40% of the initial order in the 1st week. Games that are considered to 'sell well' generally sell through 60+% of the order.
2) Prices have 'collapsed', and this occurred during the first week. You don't need to be a genius to know that prices falling so soon is not a good sign.
And Lance, by your logic of 'we must wait until they say it's a failure before deeming it one', by that logic, 99.9999% of all products released on the market are successful.
LanceStern said:
The problem with that argument is that you haven't made it very clear how the difference in the market would affect this game specifically. When the argument was brought up by ehtelred that it didn't match the numbers for new IPs S-E had previously put out not all of those games were RPGs. This game, on the other hand, is an RPG, just not a standard one. S-E have released a lot of new IPs throughout their history in a number of different genres and styles. I agree, it would not be fair to compare IAWW to something like Chrono Trigger straight out. But comparing it to a host of different games, all in different genres, released at different times, is about as fair as you can get.
Unfortunately, we cannot compare it to new S-E IPs on the DS since this is the first one they've done.
Jonnyram said:
So, how big is IAWW budget's is (in your opinion) ?
I think, at the end of the day, the most important thing is what SE think about IAWW's sales. I remember that a lot of people are dissapointed at FFIII first month sales (because of the undership thing), but SE (the maker of the game) has come out and said that FFIII sales are "above expectation".
moku said:
I'm not saying that's the case in this particular situation, just that I realize it does happen. And not just in sales threads. It happens with a lot of things on here.....and depending on who starts a thread....a lot of times dictates the opinion of that entire thread too.
Another thing I noticed on here that is kind of funny, is how people view a success and a failure different than they do on NPD, just because they are weekly sales instead of monthly.
If an NPD game does ~150k-200k its first month, it's considered great...especially a new IP.
If a game in Japan does 120k, 50k, 15k, 15k....its first month....it's considered a bomb.
LanceStern
Banned
Having been quoted and responded to by so many people at one time, there's no way I can remember or respond to you all.
So did any of you say anything to me that you would like me to respond to? I think that would make things easier, and avoid me making myself look silly or starting a big argument.
I will make mention to jimbo that yes, the groupthink has been very prevalent in MC threads for so long it's crazy. From junior members to members you've never heard of will pop in and either INSULT you or laugh with this: :lol. They won't contribute to the argument, but just agree with the consensus and try to quash any dissent.
It's prevalent, but expected. Disgusting nontheless, but you get used to it.
So did any of you say anything to me that you would like me to respond to? I think that would make things easier, and avoid me making myself look silly or starting a big argument.
I will make mention to jimbo that yes, the groupthink has been very prevalent in MC threads for so long it's crazy. From junior members to members you've never heard of will pop in and either INSULT you or laugh with this: :lol. They won't contribute to the argument, but just agree with the consensus and try to quash any dissent.
It's prevalent, but expected. Disgusting nontheless, but you get used to it.
Segata Sanshiro
Member
:lolLanceStern said:
jimbo said:
Please feel free to read the last thread where I argued my point of view were thoroughly and was rebuked by "But my gut says..."
Lance, until you can muster the slightest nugget of a coherent argument grounded in evidence and logical analysis of past trends and current numbers, please kill the martyrdom "Oh, they're all just so mean" act.