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[Hammer24]

Vinnk, if you are able to do your report - could you please look out, if there are used MNG bundles around? Thx in advance!

 

[AnimeTheme]

Dude, what are you talking about? Anticipated games usually cause a spike for that system's sales before it goes back to normal levels. Do you not expect this to happen to the PS3 in the weeks after FFXIII's release?

Don't forget MP8, released during the decline and selling better than DQS, surprisingly doesn't boost hardware sales.

A closer look at the Wii chart will show weeks where sales went up when no noteworthy games are released at all- this clearly shows the Wii is very very shipment dependant for its numbers. The most likely explanation for the downward trend is that Nintendo released more Wii's for DQS and so have less units available the last few weeks.

Shinobi said nothing about supply constraint for Wii (if such constraint existed, he would usually say so), especially for the previous and this week when MP8 was supposed to boost hardware sales. That's where his concern came from.


I did NOT mean anything like "oh Wii is dying" or so. I simply mean Wii needs something big and new to boost its sales to a "new level". Nothing wrong I suppose?

 

[jimbo]

Don't forget MP8, released during the decline and selling better than DQS, surprisingly doesn't boost hardware sales.



Shinobi said nothing about supply constraint for Wii (if such constraint existed, he would usually say so), especially for the previous and this week when MP8 was supposed to boost hardware sales. That's where his concern came from.


I did NOT mean anything like "oh Wii is dying" or so. I simply mean Wii needs something big and new to boost its sales to a "new level". Nothing wrong I suppose?

I gues not, but you didn't say it like that. Most people just think you're jumping the gun.

 

[jj984jj]

Board Games shall rise again.

Nintendo better release Hajimete no Shogi to avoid bankruptcy.

 

[schuelma]

Don't forget MP8, released during the decline and selling better than DQS, surprisingly doesn't boost hardware sales.



Shinobi said nothing about supply constraint for Wii (if such constraint existed, he would usually say so), especially for the previous and this week when MP8 was supposed to boost hardware sales. That's where his concern came from.


I did NOT mean anything like "oh Wii is dying" or so. I simply mean Wii needs something big and new to boost its sales to a "new level". Nothing wrong I suppose?

So you're believing that after what, 6-7 months of hardware sellouts that the Wii is now readily available because sinobi didn't say it was supply constrained?

 

[jimbo]

Well, they had it coming.



Nah. The X360 was the first to go. Wii and PS3 still have the death throes to work through.

Nonsense! Is it just a coincidence that Oblivion is helping it hold? I think NOT. It clearly jumped back from HELL through one of the portals. But now it must sleep and recover HP. THEN..............it will save Japan.

 

[lochnesssnowman]

Nonsense! Is it just a coincidence that Oblivion is helping it hold? I think NOT. It clearly jumped back from HELL through one of the portals. But now it must sleep and recover HP. THEN..............it will save Japan.

Trying to win yourself a co-author spot on Pureauthor's sales fiction?

Spoiler

I think 360 has a decent shot at 1 million through 2008 as well - well, assuming LO kicks it on again

 

[schuelma]

Nonsense! Is it just a coincidence that Oblivion is helping it hold? I think NOT. It clearly jumped back from HELL through one of the portals. But now it must sleep and recover HP. THEN..............it will save Japan.

Are you growing a sense of humor? That will make sales threads much less interesting

 

[AnimeTheme]

So you're believing that after what, 6-7 months of hardware sellouts that the Wii is now readily available because sinobi didn't say it was supply constrained?

Hardware sellouts wont last forever, right?

I have been reading Shinobi's reports for quite some time, and if the hardware sales (Wii, NDS usually) was supposed to rise (due to a big title release or something) but didn't, and supply constraint was a factor, he would usually mention so. He didn't say anything about supply constraint for the previous and this week, and he obviously was surprised by that MP8 didn't boost hardware sales, and said hardware demand dropped and was something that was probably beyond Nintendo's expectation.

I know most people don't give a shit to Amazon, but it's a fact that recently Amazon have been able to sell Wii at a regular price with enough stocks, a rare thing ever since Wii's launch in Japan.

 

[jimbo]

Are you growing a sense of humor? That will make sales threads much less interesting

I always had it. It's just that a lot of times people took EVERYTHING I said seriously.....even when I was being sarcastic.

 

[schuelma]

Hardware sellouts wont last forever, right?

I have been reading Shinobi's reports for quite some time, and if the hardware sales (Wii, NDS usually) was supposed to rise (due to a big title release or something) but didn't, and supply constraint was a factor, he would usually mention so. He didn't say anything about supply constraint for the previous and this week, and he obviously was surprised by that MP8 didn't boost hardware sales, and said hardware demand dropped and was something that was probably beyond Nintendo's expectation.

I know most people don't give a shit to Amazon, but it's a fact that recently Amazon have been able to sell Wii at a regular price with enough stocks, a rare thing ever since Wii's launch in Japan.

I think you're being far too presumptive here; for all we know Nintendo decided not to increase its shipment for MP8. I find it hard to believe that after 2 huge releases, Wii demand is now slackening after going a while without any major releases and demand never slowing.

 

[Culex]

Hardware sellouts wont last forever, right?

I have been reading Shinobi's reports for quite some time, and if the hardware sales (Wii, NDS usually) was supposed to rise (due to a big title release or something) but didn't, and supply constraint was a factor, he would usually mention so. He didn't say anything about supply constraint for the previous and this week, and he obviously was surprised by that MP8 didn't boost hardware sales, and said hardware demand dropped and was something that was probably beyond Nintendo's expectation.

I know most people don't give a shit to Amazon, but it's a fact that recently Amazon have been able to sell Wii at a regular price with enough stocks, a rare thing ever since Wii's launch in Japan.

Sinobi has been wrong plenty of times too, you know.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Hey Kurosaki, where did you get the numbers? Can you please let me know if Oblivion is on there anywhere?

2ch. There isn't any other data, I'd have post it like last week. Remember this is a leak because we aren't going to see those numbers and top30 until Friday 17.

 

[jimbo]

Sinobi has been wrong plenty of times too, you know.

Even if he's right. It's only 3 weeks. With the Wii it needs to actually drop below its lowest average, for anyone to claim this. It's just too freaking early and meaningless to make any claims. Heck I'll admitt I'd love to see the Wii slow down, and the next-gen consoles pick up....but this....should be dismissed as a sign that that is happening for the time being. You at least have to give it the benefit of the doubt, considering how there really hasn't even been a trend with the Wii for longer than 2 weeks at a time.

It's 60k one week, then 5k-10k increase for the next 2, then it does 90k, then gradually back down to 65k then up and so and so on.


It's not like the PS3 or 360 where they consistently fall within certain ranges. The Wii will no doubt eventually level out and sell more predictably, but where it lands, and when, is still too early to tell.

 

[jimbo]

2ch. There isn't any other data, I'd have post it like last week. Remember this is a leak because we aren't going to see those numbers and top30 until Friday 17.

Ahh thanks. Bummer I just can't wait to find out if I've wasted my time for the past 3 months or if I'm actually on to something here.

 

[Innotech]

after a huge spike 3 weeks before, a drop to normal levels is pretty much expected.
Its funny how a drop is still over 60k a week and people are calling doom for the wii in Japan :lol

So does that make PS3/360 in Japan dead and buried then?

 

[jimbo]

after a huge spike 3 weeks before, a drop to normal levels is pretty much expected.
Its funny how a drop is still over 60k a week and people are calling doom for the wii in Japan :lol

So does that make PS3/360 in Japan dead and buried then?

More like buried alive, but yeah.

 

[AnimeTheme]

Even if he's right. It's only 3 weeks. With the Wii it needs to actually drop below its lowest average, for anyone to claim this. It's just too freaking early and meaningless to make any claims. Heck I'll admitt I'd love to see the Wii slow down, and the next-gen consoles pick up....but this....should be dismissed as a sign that that is happening for the time being. You at least have to give it the benefit of the doubt, considering how there really hasn't even been a trend with the Wii for longer than 2 weeks at a time.

It's 60k one week, then 5k-10k increase for the next 2, then it does 90k, then gradually back down to 65k then up and so and so on.

I NEVER really said anything about Wii's sales slowing or dying down. I merely said Wii's current demand had "saturated" (at a point around 50-60k... about the same as your point).

 

[Bo130]

Famitsu Top 10:

1. (1 / -) Mario Party 8 (Wii, Nintendo)
2. (NEW) J. League Winning Eleven 2007 Club Championship (PS2, Konami)
3. (2 / -) Everybody's Golf 5 (PS3, Sony)
4. (4 / -) It's a Wonderful World (NDS, Square Enix)
5. (11/ 5) Wii Sports (Wii, Nintendo)
6. (5 / 1) Jikkyou Powerful Pro Yakyuu 14 (PS2, Konami)
7. (12/ 9) Wii Play (Wii, Nintendo)
8. (NEW) Face Training DS (DS, Nintendo)
9. (10/ 4) Legend of Zelda: Phantom Hourglass (NDS, Nintendo)
10. (16/13) New Super Mario Bros. (NDS, Nintendo)

 

[Culex]

Even if he's right. It's only 3 weeks. With the Wii it needs to actually drop below its lowest average, for anyone to claim this. It's just too freaking early and meaningless to make any claims. Heck I'll admitt I'd love to see the Wii slow down, and the next-gen consoles pick up....but this....should be dismissed as a sign that that is happening for the time being. You at least have to give it the benefit of the doubt, considering how there really hasn't even been a trend with the Wii for longer than 2 weeks at a time.

It's 60k one week, then 5k-10k increase for the next 2, then it does 90k, then gradually back down to 65k then up and so and so on.


It's not like the PS3 or 360 where they consistently fall within certain ranges. The Wii will no doubt eventually level out and sell more predictably, but where it lands, and when, is still too early to tell.

Exactly, when the Wii falls below it's 48k threshold, then people can claim otherwise.

 

[Toru]

2ch.

From the same poster:

25. [Xbox360] Oblivion - 10,000 (~56,000）

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

I'm glad jimbo has had the guts to stick it out in these threads. Sometimes he's a little crazy, but we all are at times, and it is nice to have a dissenting voice that generally thinks before he posts.

 

[Jammy]

I cant tell whether people are being serious or what.

If Wii only managed to sell 70,000 then that means its shipments are back to normal. The only reason we saw a rise before in sales was because Nintendo shipped more with the release of DQS but not with Mario Party 8.

It's pretty much common knowledge that whatever Nintendo ships they sell with Wii. They just didn't put out as much units as they did when DQS came out. What's the big deal?

Wii's going back to its normal levels of 70,000.

 

[felipeko]

Use your logic on this:

And tell me how many times DS has satured the demand.

 

[jimbo]

From the same poster:

25. [Xbox360] Oblivion - 10,000 (~56,000）

YESSSSSS. Amazon theory holding (almost)confirmed!!! Need MC numbers tonight for the final word.

.

 

[schuelma]

I'm glad jimbo has had the guts to stick it out in these threads. Sometimes he's a little crazy, but we all are at times, and it is nice to have a dissenting voice that generally thinks before he posts.

Agreed. I have a special place in my heart for anyone that obsessively tracks Amazon to determine the sales of 360 games. A poster after my own heart.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Yeah take a look a couple of pages back when I made the same statement.....actually take a look at all the MC create threads this year, when I made the same statements.....I get bashed on a weekly basis here for saying that.

You frequently say X360 can reach a million, but I don't think I've ever before seen you put such a near date on when it will happen.

Anyone who still blindly believes that the recent decline of Wii hardware sales is just a supply constraint issue is simply fanboyish. Wii's supply has been fine in Japan recently as we can see Amazon as well as some other major retailers being able to sell Wii at a regular price with enough stocks. The continuous decline of hardware sales after DQS and the fact that MP8 doesn't boost hardware sales clearly show that the demand of Wii in its current light-game-centric appeal has already saturated. Wii needs big titles and more games of different genre like DQS to boost hardware sales to a new level.

It certainly could be that the shortages are over, for all I know. However, dozens of thousands of people still buying the hardware each week is not a saturated market.

 

[lupin23rd]

Bladestorm für X box 360 ? 30.08 ?

Not coming on the same day as the PS3 version, if that's what you're asking. I don't think there is a date announced - just "fall".

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

From the same poster:

25. [Xbox360] Oblivion - 10,000 (~56,000）

lol sorry jimbo, I didn't follow the thread to see if they posted more numbers :lol

 

[Stop It]

Famitsu Top 10:

1. (1 / -) Mario Party 8 (Wii, Nintendo)
2. (NEW) J. League Winning Eleven 2007 Club Championship (PS2, Konami)
3. (2 / -) Everybody's Golf 5 (PS3, Sony)
4. (4 / -) It's a Wonderful World (NDS, Square Enix)
5. (11/ 5) Wii Sports (Wii, Nintendo)
6. (5 / 1) Jikkyou Powerful Pro Yakyuu 14 (PS2, Konami)
7. (12/ 9) Wii Play (Wii, Nintendo)
8. (NEW) Face Training DS (DS, Nintendo)
9. (10/ 4) Legend of Zelda: Phantom Hourglass (NDS, Nintendo)
10. (16/13) New Super Mario Bros. (NDS, Nintendo)

Oh will you stop selling damnit, I want NSMB 2 :lol

MP8 still selling like mad, Nintendo can't put a foot wrong in Japan it seems.

 

[jimbo]

lol sorry jimbo, I didn't follow the thread to see if they posted more numbers :lol

No problem. Desperate anticipation but with a favorable result = I am happy.

 

[ziran]

Taker666 and AnimeTheme do have a point. It does look like Nintendo is shipping enough systems to meet demand at the moment. Wii sales last week should've been higher for a complete sell out, due to MP8, because Nintendo did ship more than normal, and over the last few days the system has been available for ¥25,000 at Amazon Japan, which hasn't happened before.

However, this doesn't mean market saturation by any stretch, and doesn't change the fact Wii is already the market leader in Japan and shows no signs of letting go of this position. Also, I expect Nintendo will welcome the slight breathing space, as it continues to juggle shipments to meet demand as major titles are released in other territories. With Mario Strikers, SMG, SBB and Wii Fit coming, as the year end approaches I expect Nintendo is going to be selling every single Wii they ship.

MP8 sales are amazing, it has a good chance of selling over a million, and Forever Blue has pulled in decent numbers for the franchise. PH declines, but should still top a million, which would be excellent.

PS3 is selling catastrophically for a Playstation home console and 43K for Minna no Golf's second week is bad; it is the new GC, any doubts I had ended this week. Sony's acting as if they have no clue what's going on in the market, and price cuts will not help beyond initial surges, as with every secondary system in Japan.

As for 360, whether it reaches a million or not is inconsequential, realistically the system will continue to be irrelevant in Japan.

 

[jimbo]

Taker666 and AnimeTheme do have a point. It does look like Nintendo is shipping enough systems to meet demand at the moment. Wii sales last week should've been higher for a complete sell out, due to MP8, because Nintendo did ship more than normal, and over the last few days the system has been available for ¥25,000 at Amazon Japan, which hasn't happened before.

However, this doesn't mean market saturation by any stretch, and doesn't change the fact Wii is already the market leader in Japan and shows no signs of letting go of this position. Also, I expect Nintendo will welcome the slight breathing space, as it continues to juggle shipments to meet demand as major titles are released in other territories. With Mario Strikers, SMG, SBB and Wii Fit coming, as the year end approaches I expect Nintendo is going to be selling every single Wii they ship.

MP8 sales are amazing, it has a good chance of selling over a million, and Forever Blue has pulled in decent numbers for the franchise. PH declines, but should still top a million, which would be excellent.

PS3 is selling catastrophically for a Playstation home console and 43K for Minna no Golf's second week is bad; it is the new GC, any doubts I had ended this week. Sony's acting as if they have no clue what's going on in the market, and price cuts will not help beyond initial surges, as with every secondary system in Japan.

As for 360, whether it reaches a million or not is inconsequential, realistically the system will continue to be irrelevant in Japan.

If a 400k user base can make games sell >100k, then if the 360 gets a million of these guys it certainly won't be irrelevant to publishers. It would be considered a viable niche. No multiplatform publisher would turn down the chance of selling 100k-200k copies of a game, especially games that can be published outside Japan. One million 360's pretty much means, unlike the Xbox, it will continue to get Japanese publisher support.

 

[mr stroke]

nintendo die please

 

[ksamedi]

[/b]


If a 400k user base can make games sell >100k, then if the 360 gets a million of these guys it certainly won't be irrelevant to publishers. It would be considered a viable niche. No multiplatform publisher would turn down the chance of selling 100k-200k copies of a game, especially games that can be published outside Japan. One million 360's pretty much means, unlike the Xbox, it will continue to get Japanese publisher support.

I dont remember that happening with Gamecube, and the PS3 isnt selling as well either. I think the Wii and DS will be the dominant third party platforms in Japan, as for PS3/360, it doesnt look good at all since Wii ports arent practical.

 

[Jammy]

nintendo die please

no u

 

[ziran]

[/b]


If a 400k user base can make games sell >100k, then if the 360 gets a million of these guys it certainly won't be irrelevant to publishers. It would be considered a viable niche. No multiplatform publisher would turn down the chance of selling 100k-200k copies of a game, especially games that can be published outside Japan. One million 360's pretty much means, unlike the Xbox, it will continue to get Japanese publisher support.

There's always going to be non-Japanese orientated stuff from developers as long as its selling in NA, but overall, imo, MS had their chance with 360 in Japan and they blew it.

And, in reality, I don't think 360 is going to sell close to a million units in Japan.

 

[Oblivion]

PS3 numbers are still pretty good considering the huge dropoff for HS5.

 

[Innotech]

nintendo die please

then I cant play niGHTS2 or Zack and wiki. Id be forced to kill you. you wouldnt want that now would you?

 

[jimbo]

I dont remember that happening with Gamecube, and the PS3 isnt selling as well either. I think the Wii and DS will be the dominant third party platforms in Japan, as for PS3/360, it doesnt look good at all since Wii ports arent practical.

The GC never really had great third party support from the beginning though, for many reasons, unlike the 360, nor was it ever a leading console in any territory, unlike the 360.

The 360 already has pretty good Japanese support, and with recents announcements like DW it seems like it will continue. Add in the PS3 situation, and I think it's an entirely different scenario.

Last generation, there really was no reason for developers to even port most of their games to the GC, considering the PS2 was so dominant and that version was guaranteed to sell all that they needed to and more. Not only that but there was a great possibility that the GC version would completely bomb. Now things are different.

As far as next gen games go....they can't port them to Wii, and the PS3 isn't the horse the PS2 was....so if the 360 can muster up 1 million consoles, it can make up the difference, not to mention, like I said, any game with world-wide appeal will sell great outside of Japan on the 360.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Going by Famitsu, Xbox + Xbox 360 comes to about 900K presently.

 

[AnimeTheme]

PS3 is selling catastrophically for a Playstation home console and 43K for Minna no Golf's second week is bad; it is the new GC, any doubts I had ended this week. Sony's acting as if they have no clue what's going on in the market, and price cuts will not help beyond initial surges, as with every secondary system in Japan.

The current situation of PS3 in Japan is really quite catastrophic. The fact that even a light title like MNG5 sells like a "hardcore" game with most sales concentrated at the first week and a big decline at second week with little effect on boosting hardware sales clearly reflects the current demography of PS3 - mainly consisted of only the most hardcore PlayStation gamers. The current price point of PS3 is simply too high to attract casual gamers.

However, I don't think price cuts in the case of PS3 "will not help beyond initial surges". PS3 price was set at such a high price point rarely (or simply never) seen in the console industry. PS3 does have its values in the market, and if the price point is lowered to a "spark point", it will begin to sell well. It's just a matter of how big the price cuts Sony can afford, and whether the spark point can be reached (before it is too late).

I think we can't always use the previous cases to predict the fates of consoles of this generation. There are really some new factors never seen before in the console history. For example, the fact that console "OS" (firmware) can now evolve is something you can't totally ignored. XBO360 and PS3 are beginning to sell games and various content directly online, and this selling model will have bigger and bigger importance in the future. It's safe to guess that PS3, XB360 and even Wii will offer a LOT more in various ways than they were at the beginning, and these changes may change the way we look at the consoles as we were.

 

[bc226]

Its funny how most seem to forget that the PS3 is cheaper in Japan then anywere else and has been since launch and yet even with the cheapest price the system still does not move units.

 

[felipeko]

Its funny how most seem to forget that the PS3 is cheaper in Japan then anywere else and has been since launch and yet even with the cheapest price the system still does not move units.

Not sure, but i guess most systems are always cheaper in Japan, so that makes it even.

 

[bc226]

I think you would be wrong there the Wii is less due to the fact it does not come with a game, and the 360 is right around its basic US price has well the only reason the Japanese got a cheaper system was due to thee fact that even before the PS3 shiped they they complained and forced Sony to sell it cheaper.

 

[Link]

Not sure, but i guess most systems are always cheaper in Japan, so that makes it even.

They're actually usually more expensive.

 

[felipeko]

They're actually usually more expensive.

Oh really?
Well, i read that here a long ago.. so i must as well be wrong..

 

[Parl]

There's always going to be non-Japanese orientated stuff from developers as long as its selling in NA, but overall, imo, MS had their chance with 360 in Japan and they blew it.

And, in reality, I don't think 360 is going to sell close to a million units in Japan.

I personally don't think 360 has reached its peak right now. I think next year will be bigger.

 

[Link]

The 360 is carving itself quite a nice niche in Japan. Software sales are great in relation to the userbase. Like jimbo said, publishers will definitely take note of that.

 

[LanceStern]

Where are you getting the idea that MNG5 had a "BIG" drop this week? It dropped just 1 place in the Top 10, and it's still in the Top 3 by Famitsu standards. Thats great not only for the PS3's software history, but shows some legs for MNG5 for the system as well.

I'm also very pleased by It's a Wonderful World, it's showing some legs, and it's LTD is already over 100k now.

Mario Party 8 is breaking records for the franchise: debuting over 250k and staying at #1 two weeks in a row.

And yes, it's going pretty well for the Xbox 360 technically speaking, and I have no problem with the PS3's sales at the moment either. It looks like it'll have to carve a small niche to, with an ending LTD (at this rate) of the GCN