Segata Sanshiro
Member
Sometimes I think there are two Lance Sterns.
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Media Create Sales: 7/23 - 7/29
- Thread starter cvxfreak
- Start date
LanceStern said:
Why do people give a rat's ass about what PLACE games make their debut at in the charts? Mario Party 8 isn't selling well because it's been number one for two consecutive weeks... all that means is that no other semi-big hits even released that week.
Mario Party 8 is doing well because in its second week it sold ~150,000. Minna no Golf 5 isn't doing that well because it dropped from what... 150,000 to 40,000? In a few weeks it will be selling near-insignificant numbers.
test_account
XP-39C²
schuelma said:
Do you mean a "Wii popularity is going down" argument? If so, i dont know, i just commented to a guy that the decline has been over 4 weeks, not just 1, i'm not arguing about anything. I also said its too early to see any trends.
Jokeropia said:
True, but as said, i just pointed out it was down throughout 4 weeks, not just 1. Nothing more, nothing less
donny2112 said:
I think I'm one of the few who actually knows how to read those PAL charts (what with taking the platform specific and comparing them with both the Full and All charts combined), and even I'm not blinded when it comes to sales in other regions of the world.
Lance, Mario Party 8, for instance would have ~400,000 sales in two weeks whereas Minna no Golf 5 would have ~200,000. That's a huge difference, especially when looking at the franchises and expectations of each game. No "BUT IT'S ONLY ONE SPOT BELOW" is going to change that.
Jammy said:
Yeah. But if we say the Wii is half the price of the PS3 then it is fair to assume that if the Wii were twice as much as it is now then MP8 would have sold half of what it has now, which is less than MnG. By that logic Mng is doing very well?
It boggles my mind that some people use that argument...
It's definitely way to early to tell if the Wii has met the demand in Japan, just because it has decreased in sales 4 week in a row. Maybe Nintendo had to pay the price after the huge shipment they had for DQ:S. I'm pretty sure Wii numbers will increase next week. Just count on it.
The expression "showing legs" was designed to indicate a game is selling at a sustained, consistent pace for a considerable length of time post release.
Dropping to 50% of your first week sales in your second week is not "showing legs." It is, at best, a hyper-orthodox individual lifting up the hem of a garment designed to cover the entirety of the skin and gracing the crowd with a brief glimpse of ankle.
Dropping to 50% of your first week sales in your second week is not "showing legs." It is, at best, a hyper-orthodox individual lifting up the hem of a garment designed to cover the entirety of the skin and gracing the crowd with a brief glimpse of ankle.
LanceStern
Banned
I brought up Mario Party 8 being #1 for two consecutive weeks because no other Mario PArty has done that. It's a milestone for the franchise and deserves to be mentioned.
Do you know that it's 40k or is that a guess? Because in any case, it still only dropped one spot, and held up in the Top 3 sellers for the week, and has a respectable > 40k for it's second week, considering both the PS3's userbase and history of software standings in Japan. No other PS3 title has done this (besides Gundam), let alone for two consecutive weeks, and thus it got mentioned as well.
If 20 products were out on the market, the #1 sold 100 of itself, #2 sold 20 and #3 sold 10;well, at least you can say you're in the Top 3 sellers eh?
either the expectations were horrendously wrong, or there's a mistake in this logic. As kay pointed out, MNG5 could not possibly have been expected to do better than it has or is doing. Significantly lower userbase, different market, declining series, outshined in the face of a new market leader, etc.
ethelred said:
I will chuckle at this.
ComputerNerd
Banned
LanceStern said:
Chart placement doesn't determine legs. Units sold does. And it did have a pretty drastic decline in sales in week 2.
Yeah..Jammy said:
no.
That's a ridiculous way to measure its success.. The game didn't have any chance of outselling the previous title as the install base is at least less than 10% of what PS2's was when the last one came out. Being 2 and a half times the price of the PS2 back then and now the Wii is certainly no point of discussion either. If you are going to do an analysis, try to at least put some effort into it.
LanceStern said:
It doesn't matter how many places it fell, what matters his how much it decreased in numbers. Goinf from above 150k to 40k is a HUGE drop-off. Two weeks ago there were an insanely huge amount of new and big games that came out. Last week, there were zero big games out, which means that second weeks sales of Minna no Golf 5 had no competition with new games. In other words, last week was a VERY slow week sales wise compared to the previous week.
titiklabingapat
Member
That was his point. The userbase is so poor that a historically strong franchise with mighty legs is doing poorly in relation to it's predecessor.kay said:
LanceStern
Banned
titiklabingapat said:
That's opinion to me. If it's userbase is so drastically different, and the game is debuting with 150k and staying in the Top 3 next week with over 40-50k sales, then it will turn out just fine and is doing fine now.
Opinion of course
titiklabingapat
Member
It's doing fine on the chart but by no means is it doing fine in the overll picture.LanceStern said:
ComputerNerd
Banned
LanceStern said:
Kurosaki Ichigo said:
#'s.
He inferred expectations were high for the game and that is true. However, the expectations for it to outsell the previous version is way off base. The situation between the series is a lot different than it is for the Mario Party series (consoles sold and entry price are big factors). I do think MP8 performed better but it had a much easier time doing so. Nintendo mascot, a party game, a family system, easy sales..titiklabingapat said:
LanceStern
Banned
Oh and just as a discclaimer, I get the concept of numbers determining legs, not chart place.
If a game debuted at #1 one week with 100k, then the next week it dropped to #10 (in the face of new, hot releases) with 82k units, it still has great legs by numbers, the chart place would not be a good indicator of legs and how well it's doing.
Likewise if a game debuted at #1 one week with 200k units, and the next week it was #2 it sold 10k units. The chart place says it's doing great, but in reality it's a awful week of sales, and it really is doing bad in terms of legs.
I get the concept, (that's one of the ways how I determine my 300k success, I SHOULD know it), but for Minna no Golf, both the chart placement and it's second week numbers are showing great legs for the game. It stayed in the Top 3 for a second consecutive week (a milestone no matter how you look at it imo), and it's doing over 40k for it's second week. This in the face that:
- The franchise, like many titles that started in Japan (Final Fantasy, Devil May Cry, Metal Gear etc) is not as strong as it used to be. It's on a decline.
- It's on a system with a drastically lower userbase.
- It's released in the face of two hot systems that have systematcially and strategically drowned out the hype of ANY attempt by the opposition.
Another point is: You guys couldn't have expected it to sell better than it has. It's at 200k units now or more, and that's already 1/5th of the userbase. I always asked why more people didn't buy DS games ("what, only 100k people out of a 15 million userbase liked this game?"), but in this case, it would be insane for the game to do numbers better than this consdering the userbase is too low. If it did over 400k or 500k like some people are implying, half the people in Japan would own it.
Yes I said, half the people in Japan, and not half the PS3 owners in Japan.
I agree. In some ways in was implying that Minna was doing bad compared to MP8.
If a game debuted at #1 one week with 100k, then the next week it dropped to #10 (in the face of new, hot releases) with 82k units, it still has great legs by numbers, the chart place would not be a good indicator of legs and how well it's doing.
Likewise if a game debuted at #1 one week with 200k units, and the next week it was #2 it sold 10k units. The chart place says it's doing great, but in reality it's a awful week of sales, and it really is doing bad in terms of legs.
I get the concept, (that's one of the ways how I determine my 300k success, I SHOULD know it), but for Minna no Golf, both the chart placement and it's second week numbers are showing great legs for the game. It stayed in the Top 3 for a second consecutive week (a milestone no matter how you look at it imo), and it's doing over 40k for it's second week. This in the face that:
- The franchise, like many titles that started in Japan (Final Fantasy, Devil May Cry, Metal Gear etc) is not as strong as it used to be. It's on a decline.
- It's on a system with a drastically lower userbase.
- It's released in the face of two hot systems that have systematcially and strategically drowned out the hype of ANY attempt by the opposition.
Another point is: You guys couldn't have expected it to sell better than it has. It's at 200k units now or more, and that's already 1/5th of the userbase. I always asked why more people didn't buy DS games ("what, only 100k people out of a 15 million userbase liked this game?"), but in this case, it would be insane for the game to do numbers better than this consdering the userbase is too low. If it did over 400k or 500k like some people are implying, half the people in Japan would own it.
Yes I said, half the people in Japan, and not half the PS3 owners in Japan.
a hot system... changing market...etckay said:
I agree. In some ways in was implying that Minna was doing bad compared to MP8.
titiklabingapat
Member
Which was again the point. Wii will get easy sales while the PS3 will struggle.kay said:
LanceStern
Banned
titiklabingapat said:
No his point looked like he was bashing Minna no Golf sales numbers.
Computer Nerd I thank you for posting that, I was wondering where we got the 40k number. It is a painful drop, when I saw it, I actually said "ow, that's a painful drop". Literally, and my head hurt at the same time.
titiklabingapat
Member
I meant mine, sorry.
super funk
Member
ComputerNerd said:
The best example of this is Pokemon DP. It is performing better than RS, but it doesnt seem that way because unlike RS, DP dropped out of the top 10 relatively quickly, obviously because there are more games with legs now than compared to 5 years ago.
ComputerNerd
Banned
The golf game sold 177K in the first week (220-43)
Thus, it had a sales drop of 134K in week #2. That's a drop of 75.7% (if my math is correct).
That's a huge drop from week 1 to week 2.
On the other hand, Mario Party 8's sales dropped 46.4% in week #2.
Thus, it had a sales drop of 134K in week #2. That's a drop of 75.7% (if my math is correct).
That's a huge drop from week 1 to week 2.
On the other hand, Mario Party 8's sales dropped 46.4% in week #2.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
Sure it could've. Dynasty Warriors Gundam was from a series that was similarly successful on PS2 and sold about the same the first week to a smaller userbase.LanceStern said:
That only sold well because of gundam, same thing for Target in Sight. Even the new Mobile Ops gundam game for the 360 will do well in Japan. Mingol is not nearly as big.JoshuaJSlone said:
edit: I should say that Gundam Musou already had a buffer in Target in Sight as it came out at launch. Mingol is the first really in its kind on the system.
LanceStern
Banned
JoshuaJSlone said:
The same argument could be used for new IPs on the DS with the same non-game development mentality. Or franchises not doing 200k while others did at different times. But I'd rather not go into that.
Minna is quickly outpacing Dynasty Gundam in LTD, not to mention (if my memory serves me correct), the game wasn't launched in the face of a big Wii/DS release, including a Gundam, Mario Party, Taiko, DS.
They could've seen that as the first big hit PS3 title [Dynasty Gundam] and snatched it up in excitement. It didn't live up to the expectations in the face of increasing disappointment with the PS3, and now when Minna is released at the same time as popular franchises on more popular systems and presto.
All of this is hypothetical. But Minna is going to outsell Dynasty Gundam anyways. And I believe that's still a 1/5th userbase ratio, not getting any bigger.
AniHawk said:
That was a poor attempt Anihawk. :{
ComputerNerd
Banned
Busaiku said:
I thought it was 300.
titiklabingapat
Member
Mario Party wasn't THAT big. It certainly wasn't bigger than MNG before MP8 came out.LanceStern said:
apotema said:
Publishers care about software, not hardware....and if we're talking about the whole world the 360's software sales are smoking.
While I agree that MNG holding its spot two weeks in a row doesn't mean it has legs.....the amount a game drops in its second week, also doesn't show that it DOES NOT have legs.
A lot of major releases are very front loaded. Halo and Halo 2 were the same way. GTA too. So will Halo 3....no way will it sell MILLIONS in its second week, like it will in the first. But that didn't stop any of these games for continously selling for months, at a much lower rate than their first week, but for a very long period of time.
So it's actually length and amount....not place or percentage drops and rises....that determines "legs".
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
kay said:
hahaha
1. MinGolf is much bigger than Gundam.
2. Musou games sell plenty well, Gundam or not.
3. As Josh pointed out, DWG dropped less week over week than MinGol, when the opposite should be true given the target audience of both series.
Code:
Mina - 1,777,895
Mina 3 - 1,226,475
Mina 4 - 1,083,079
MSGundam: Fed vs. Zeon - 807,698
Dynasty Warriors 3: Xtreme Legends - 727,488
Kidou Senshi Z Gundam - 638,667
MSG: Encounters in Space - 577,972
SD Gundam G Gen Neo - 537,229
Dynasty Warriors 4: Xtreme Legends - 531,303
Kidou Senshi Gundam SEED Destiny: Rengou vs. Z.A.F.T. II Plus - 440,432
Kidou Senshi Gundam: Ichinen Sensou - 436,411
Kidou Senshi Gundam SEED: Rengou vs. Z.A.F.T. - 433,784
SD Gundam G Generation Seed - 406,618
Mobile Suit Gundam: Journey to Jaburo - 399,439
Kidou Senshi Gundam Senki - 381,976
Kidou Senshi Gundam: Giren no Yabou - Zeon Dokuritsu Sensouden - 371,436
Dynasty Warriors 5: Xtreme Legends - 355,296
Mobile Suit Gundam: Gundam vs. Zeta Gunda - 352,111
Dynasty Warriors 2 - 330,772
Dynasty Warriors 4: Empires - 316,673
Gundam Musou - 277,582
Mobile Suit Gundam: Crossfire - 134,206
SD Gundam G Generation DS - 94,317
Kidou Senshi Gundam: Senshitachi no Kiseki (GCN) - 80,615
Kidou Senshi Gundam: Gundam Vs. Z Gundam (GCN) - 56,581
SD Gundam: Scad Hammers - 43,324JoshuaJSlone
Member
I can list a few Minna no Golf games that sold over a million in Japan, but I don't know of any Gundam games that have.kay said:
LanceStern
Banned
Stumpokapow said:
I don't disagree with your #1 and #2 points, but the highest selling Dynsaty Warriors is 1.2 million. Which shows at one point it was as popular as Minna no Golf.
Other than that, it is strange Musou dropped less week over week, but we're still looking at 1 million PS3s. The userbase of Minna no Golf could possibly not own the system: the PS3 being expensive and lack of hype/satisfaction with the system, the people that used to buy Minna no Golf could've migrated to Wii.
Once again, all hypothetical. But your number list was wrong having DW at < 800k. Best seller is 1.2 million
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
LanceStern said:
I just grabbed quick numbers from Moor-Angol; I don't keep data on games that don't interest me. I also didn't mean to imply that DW was any smaller than Mina, just that Gundam was. I included DW numbers to show that DWG didn't sell because of Gundam, it sold because of DW and Gundam.
kay said:
Which was the point of the line of reasoning to begin with; that the kind of people that made PS2 games big are not buying the PS3 or games for it, and that the PS3 is mirroring the GameCube; major games are released, get bought for a few weeks, and nothing changes on the overall.
LanceStern
Banned
Stumkapow said:
That was almost no where near the point of the line of reasoning besides the last sentence you said. If that was said in the first place, we wouldn't be here.
But BECAUSE, the userbase isn't there on the PS3, it's a testament that Minna no Golf is doing decent if not well in Japan. Debuted with over 150k at #2, stayed in the Top 3 next week with 43k (a horrendous drop however, I won't say anything else without mentioning that), and looks like it'll have a decent third week as well.
All in all, it's goign to be the #1 PS3 seller, and over 1/4th of the PS3 userbase is going to own the game. This, despite the main userbase not being there. If the PS3 could ever get off it's feet and start selling well in Japan, it's a great indicator for software sales.
But we're not there yet, and still the PS3 needs a turnaroudn in software trends. Gundam and Minna no Golf legs are a start.
titiklabingapat said:
True true, but if I can change it a little
titiklabingapat said:
Fixed.
Now all of a sudden Mario Kart handheld titles are more popular than main series Final Fantasies on the PS2. Now all of a sudden Paper Mario is more popular than Tekken, Virtua Fighter, Gundam and Dynasty Warriors on consoles.
Wii and DS are changing titles, and putting once-significant franchises by the wayside (on other consoles). Mario Party 8 was PERFECT for the Wii audience, and because of that it POSSIBLY drowned out Minna no Golf's sales success.
Like I said 3 MC's ago, it's a like a chess game:
Sony: "Minna no Golf to July 15"
Nintendo: "Mario Party 8 to July 15"
Sony: "
****
Count Dookkake
Member
ethelred said:
Not true. The expression predates the invention of the videogame by a few decades and is used to talk about theatrical bookings.
TheKingsCrown
Banned
SONY AND NINTENDO LOVE SALES, BUT THEY DON'T CARE MUCH ABOUT BEATING EACH OTHER'S SALES ON SOFTWARE SO LONG AS THE SOFTWARE SALES MAKE EACH GAME SIGNIFICANTLY PROFITABLE>
titiklabingapat
Member
LanceStern said:
You suck for making me chuckle.
LanceStern said:
Mario Party 8 topped the charts for two consecutive weeks?! BIG WHOOP. Prior Mario Party games came out at the beginning of the shopping season in Japan, where every other game and its mother is released. It had competition and therefore fell several places in its charts. But that's why we use sales and don't give a shit about what position they're in unless they're outside the top ten.
LanceStern said:
You just realized my whole damned point! Of course "at least you can say" that, but that's reaching and spinning if I've ever seen it.
Again, Minna no Golf 5 would not have even been number three had there been other releases for the week. It's standalone second week sales are NOT impressive but "ITS THIRD IN THE CHARTS."
You could specialize in Sony spin.
LanceStern said:
Of course, but even if you don't look at past history you see Minna no Golf 5 a mere two spots behind Mario Party 8 but a whole 200,000 behind it in sales.
TheKingsCrown said:
Sony hates sales right now or they would be lowering the price drastically. I don't think they will agree it is wise to catch Nintendo in sales numbers, with their current strategy at least. They should be doing something about Microsoft however, they are really starting to show them up a bit in Japan.
LanceStern
Banned
Jammy said:
I care. I like seeing New Super Mario Bros. and Animal Crossing in the Top 10. We all know they have great legs, but it's great to see them in Top 10.
You can justify Mario party if you'd like, it still didn't debut and hold #1 like Mario Party 8 did, so it's a record and it's noteworthy. Same for Minna no Golf. It doesn't take anything away from the other titles, so why not mention it?
I think it would have. 150k in one week is enough to put the game in #3, there wre plenty of other notable releases, Taiko, IAWW (as a lot of MC's expected the title to do better than it did *as in sell out its shipment* it seems), Gundam for Wii etc.
Of course, but even if you don't look at past history you see Minna no Golf 5 a mere two spots behind Mario Party 8 but a whole 200,000 behind it in sales.[/QUOTE]
LanceStern
Banned
Saitou said:
What am I doing? I have a different opinion: I think a game is selling good and others don't. I'm supporting my opinion, some people are even chuckling at non-serious stuff. Nothing is being done here. Please contribute to the discussion or don't say anything at all yes?
titiklabingapat said:
This is currently how the chess match is going:
I trust you know which one is which.