I really think that NSMB has a chance to sell to 1/3 the installed base of DS in Japan over the life of the console. I think it could sell upwards of 6 million by, let's say, the end of 2008. Nintendo really needs to learn from past mistakes and release a budget series of games for the DS. By budget, I mean a player's choice type lineup. Maybe mid 2007 drop the price of Mario Kart, NSMB, AC, and other early releases to around $20-$25 USD equivalent in Japan. Around the time they drop the handheld to $99.