Support NeoGAF

[thestopsign]

WEDS was delayed, but there will still be Black DS.

When, I thought it was dated for early September? Even without that there is still Pokemon Diamond and Pearl coming at the end of September it really doesn't matter. Though there is also that new Daredemo game, I believe the original sold over 600,000 copies, and this one is online.

 

[linsivvi]

FFIII LE DS Lite
+
FFIII
Rune Factory

Followed by:
Jet Black DS Lite
Winning Eleven
...

Late August/September sales madness.

Somehow I doubt Winning Eleven is going to sell extremely well. Given the Japanese aren't crazy about their sports games and the quality of the screen shots we've seen so far. I'd say 200K-300K at most. Not bad, but nothing to write home about.

On the other hand, the Nintendo remade of that little game in late September is going to be a couple order of magnitudes greater than even FFIII.

 

[ethelred]

Somehow I doubt Winning Eleven is going to sell extremely well. Given the Japanese aren't crazy about their sports games and the quality of the screen shots we've seen so far. I'd say 200K-300K at most. Not bad, but nothing to write home about.

On the other hand, the Nintendo remade of that little game in late September is going to be a couple order of magnitudes greater than even FFIII.

The Japanese aren't crazy about Winning Eleven? Since when?

Spoiler

Not that I think this game will sell, mind you, but not for your reason.

 

[Frankfurter]

Why do you say Canada is 7% of NA sales?
Canada was 17% of GBA/GBC NA sales...

Where do you have that from? There is a thread (or a few, I don't know) from Dalthien about the Canadian sales and the overall sales (all hardware and software combined) are about 7% of the US sales.
Btw. the launch figures (that's the only solid numbers we have) for DS and PSP pretty much agree with this 7% thing (I think DS was sth. about 25k and PSP sth. like 40k).

 

[linsivvi]

The Japanese aren't crazy about Winning Eleven? Since when?

Spoiler

Not that I think this game will sell, mind you, but not for your reason.

They are crazy about Winning Eleven alright. They are just not crazy about sports games in general, and especially not on a handheld system with low graphics qualities. And I think it's safe to say that a sizable portion of the sales of Winning Eleven went to other Asian countries, which are even crazier about this franchise than Japan. A point of note, when the Winning Eleven arcade was released, the majority of players on the top 100 rankings were from Hong Kong, not Japan.

 

[Dalthien]

Why do you say Canada is 7% of NA sales?
Canada was 17% of GBA/GBC NA sales...

No, it wouldn't have been that high. I don't have exact numbers for the GBA in Canada, but I have posted a bunch of NPD Canada data in this thread (Link)

As you can see, after factoring in the exchange rate, the Canadian market is about 6% of the US market. Obviously, the exchange rate fluctuates, and the companies don't always adjust the rate accordingly, so the number of units will vary a bit from the 6% figure, and different platforms will be more or less successful relative to the US. For example, the GC outsold the XBox in Canada, which was a reversal of the sales in the US. Anyway, I do know that the GBA was pretty even with the PS2 in Canada, and those were by far the two biggest platforms for 2003 & 2004. There is no way that both the PS2 and GBA could be up anywhere close to 17% of the US market when the Canadian market as a whole was roughly 6-7% the size of the US market. For a quick and dirty comparison, PS2+GC+Xbox sold 12.7 million units in the US in 2003. Those systems sold 876,000 units in Canada in 2003. That's 6.9% of the US market for console hardware in 2003. That percentage stays pretty constant from year-to-year if you go through the data.

Anyway, if you go through the data, you can get some pretty good estimates of what each platform sold, based upon knowing the selling price for each system in Canada, mixed in with the other data (dollar revenues, order of sales for each platform, along with actual systems sold for Q4 2003. (By the way, GBA sold 208,000 units from Oct-Dec 2003 - you can compare that with its US sales for that period). Anyway, I may sit down one day to try to figure out those estimates for each system, if I ever find the time.

Btw. the launch figures (that's the only solid numbers we have) for DS and PSP pretty much agree with this 7% thing (I think DS was sth. about 25k and PSP sth. like 40k).

Just for anyone who's interested:

Hardware Launch Numbers:

DS - 28,000 units (Nov 2004) - 5.9% of US launch
PSP - 31,500 units (Mar 2005) - 5.1% of US launch
X360 - 32,100 units (Nov 2005) - 9.8% of US launch
DSL - ~15,000 units (first 2 days of launch) - 11% of US launch

It is worth noting here that the DS and PSP both had fairly typical launches relative to their US performance, but that the X360 and DSL both had very strong launches in Canada relative to their performance in the US.

I should also note that I had a report (which I have since lost) which gave revenue figures for the X360 for Dec 2005. If I assume that the core/premium ratio is the same as Nov 2005, then I believe that the total X360 sales through the end of Dec 2005 were about 58,000. However, I am just going by memory for that number, so take it with a grain of salt.

 

[Square2005]

Where do you have that from? There is a thread (or a few, I don't know) from Dalthien about the Canadian sales and the overall sales (all hardware and software combined) are about 7% of the US sales.
Btw. the launch figures (that's the only solid numbers we have) for DS and PSP pretty much agree with this 7% thing (I think DS was sth. about 25k and PSP sth. like 40k).

GBC: NA Shipped - 20.64m
NPD (U.S.) Sales - 17.06m
21% Higher

GBA: NA Shipped - 38.45m (6/06)
NPD (6/06) Sales - 31.74m
21% Higher

Actually I don't remember where I came up with the 17% number (It was weeks ago) but traditionally for Nintendo Handhelds 21% must be added to NPD for NA sales based on shipment data.
If NPD collects an additional 7% for Canada then they are still missing 14% of NA sales if Nintendo's shipping data are correct.

 

[ioi]

GBC: NA Shipped - 20.64m
NPD (U.S.) Sales - 17.06m
21% Higher

GBA: NA Shipped - 38.45m (6/06)
NPD (6/06) Sales - 31.74m
21% Higher

Actually I don't remember where I came up with the 17% number (It was weeks ago) but traditionally for Nintendo Handhelds 21% must be added to NPD for NA sales based on shipment data.
If NPD collects an additional 7% for Canada then they are still missing 14% of NA sales if Nintendo's shipping data are correct.

FINALLY !!!!

SOMEBODY ELSE IS SEEING SENSE

The 21% is not a result just of Canada, rather Canada + NPD UNDERTRACKING (5-10%).

I have always used 15% to adjust NPD roughly to North American figures, and it fits ALL data VERY CONSISTENTLY. You have to account for some unsold units along the way, but for hardware and software NPD tracks way too low, as I have stated often in the past.

 

[Square2005]

No, it wouldn't have been that high. I don't have exact numbers for the GBA in Canada, but I have posted a bunch of NPD Canada data in this thread (Link)

As you can see, after factoring in the exchange rate, the Canadian market is about 6% of the US market. Obviously, the exchange rate fluctuates, and the companies don't always adjust the rate accordingly, so the number of units will vary a bit from the 6% figure, and different platforms will be more or less successful relative to the US. For example, the GC outsold the XBox in Canada, which was a reversal of the sales in the US. Anyway, I do know that the GBA was pretty even with the PS2 in Canada, and those were by far the two biggest platforms for 2003 & 2004. There is no way that both the PS2 and GBA could be up anywhere close to 17% of the US market when the Canadian market as a whole roughly 6-7% the size of the US market. For a quick and dirty comparison, PS2+GC+Xbox sold 12.7 million units in the US in 2003. Those systems sold 876,000 units in Canada in 2003. That's 6.9% of the US market for console hardware in 2003. That percentage stays pretty constant from year-to-year if you go through the data.

Anyway, if you go through the data, you can get some pretty good estimates of what each platform sold, based upon knowing the selling price for each system in Canada, mixed in with the other data (dollar revenues, order of sales for each platform, along with actual systems sold for Q4 2003. (By the way, GBA sold 208,000 units from Oct-Dec 2003 - you can compare that with its US sales for that period). Anyway, I may sit down one day to try to figure out those estimates for each system, if I ever find the time.


Just for anyone who's interested:

Hardware Launch Numbers:

DS - 28,000 units (Nov 2004) - 5.9% of US launch
PSP - 31,500 units (Mar 2005) - 5.1% of US launch
X360 - 32,100 units (Nov 2005) - 9.8% of US launch
DSL - ~15,000 units (first 2 days of launch) - 11% of US launch

It is worth noting here that the DS and PSP both had fairly typical launches relative to their US performance, but that the X360 and DSL both had very strong launches in Canada relative to their performance in the US.

I should also note that I had a report (which I have since lost) which gave revenue figures for the X360 for Dec 2005. If I assume that the core/premium ratio is the same as Nov 2005, then I believe that the total X360 sales through the end of Dec 2005 were about 58,000. However, I am just going by memory for that number, so take it with a grain of salt.

Okay, so the DS is gaining in Canada compared to NA overall (5.9%-11%). Do you have GBC Canadian sales? Then we can compare w/ the US and find out how much to possibly expect in the end plus knowing shipment figures for NA we can know how much the NPD collects of the whole NA market and what they miss.

 

[Dalthien]

Okay, so the DS is gaining in Canada compared to NA overall (5.9%-11%). Do you have GBC Canadian sales? Then we can compare w/ the US and find out how much to possibly expect in the end plus knowing shipment figures for NA we can know how much the NPD collects of the whole NA market and what they miss.

Unfortunately, there is no data available for GBC in Canada. NPD Canada did not begin tracking in Canada until the start of 2004, and at that time, they released Canadian data going back to 2002. There really isn't any official data for Canada before 2002. I would suspect that the DSLite will begin to fall back closer to typical percentages here in Canada, but then again it may continue up closer to 10% of the US market. The DS has been selling better (comparitively speaking) just about everywhere else in the world compared to the US, so it may make sense for Canada to follow the rest of the world, and experience higher DS sales than the US.

 

[Frankfurter]

GBC: NA Shipped - 20.64m
NPD (U.S.) Sales - 17.06m
21% Higher

GBA: NA Shipped - 38.45m (6/06)
NPD (6/06) Sales - 31.74m
21% Higher

Actually I don't remember where I came up with the 17% number (It was weeks ago) but traditionally for Nintendo Handhelds 21% must be added to NPD for NA sales based on shipment data.
If NPD collects an additional 7% for Canada then they are still missing 14% of NA sales if Nintendo's shipping data are correct.

GBA still could still have a significant stock in both Canada and the USA, although it indeed seems to be the case that NPD just undertracks in this case.

 

[ethelred]

The irony is, it used to be Monorojo that constantly talked about NPD and US sales in the MediaCreate topics, everyone would tell him to shut up about it.

Now the DS is doing well in North America and all the DS fans are talking about NPD and US sales in the MediaCreate topic.

 

[A Link to the Past]

The irony is, it used to be Monorojo that constantly talked about NPD and US sales in the MediaCreate topics, everyone would tell him to shut up about it.

Now the DS is doing well in North America and all the DS fans are talking about NPD and US sales in the MediaCreate topic.

It's not ironic, Mono used NPD as damage control and DS fans use NPD to kick the PSP while it's down

 

[Deku]

The irony is, it used to be Monorojo that constantly talked about NPD and US sales in the MediaCreate topics, everyone would tell him to shut up about it.

Now the DS is doing well in North America and all the DS fans are talking about NPD and US sales in the MediaCreate topic.

If the Japanese sales had dipped and the 'DS fans' are bringing up strong overseas sales in a Japanese sales thread, you'd have a point. But Its a big love in at the moment.

You're right to point out its OT, but having one NDP thread a month as opposed to 4 Media Creates makes it harder for people to discuss US sales without having to start a new topic for what might be considered 'narrow' interests in sales discussion.

The discussion is certianly much improved over the ioi vs. detractors argument we had a few page back.

 

[Dalthien]

FINALLY !!!!

SOMEBODY ELSE IS SEEING SENSE

The 21% is not a result just of Canada, rather Canada + NPD UNDERTRACKING (5-10%).

I have always used 15% to adjust NPD roughly to North American figures, and it fits ALL data VERY CONSISTENTLY. You have to account for some unsold units along the way, but for hardware and software NPD tracks way too low, as I have stated often in the past.

There is some validity to what you are saying, but at the same time, I think that you put a bit too much emphasis on shipped data. First off, Sony's shipped numbers are basically nothing more than production numbers. They count an item as shipped once it leaves the manufacturing plant, and because of that, I highly doubt that they reduce those shipment numbers when an item is returned or defective. NPD would reduce the sales numbers for each unit returned to retail, but those units would still be counted in a company's shipped numbers, even though they really aren't a sold unit. I am not sure how Microsoft and Nintendo handle this data with respect to their shipped numbers, but it is possible that they also include these defective and returned units in their shipped numbers. Not to mention whatever stock Sony keeps in their warehouses (which is also counted towards their shipment numbers).

Also, the retail channel in North America holds a lot of product. There are 4,200 Wal-Mart (& Sams Club) stores just in North America (US & Canada). Each store carries multiple units of each piece of hardware and software. And that is just Wal-Mart. Add in all the Best-Buys, Futureshops, FYE's, Circuit Citys, EBGames, GameStops, Costco, Zellers, Toys 'r Us, plus all the smaller businesses and online businesses, and you have a huge set of gaming product in the retail channel at any given time. Especially with respect to hardware - each of these individual stores has multiple units of each piece of hardware in stock at any given time.

Just for an example, MS had shipped 16 million XBox to NA by Dec 2005. NPD had XBox at 14 million in the US at that time. Assume 7% for Canada, and there is another million. That puts NPD at 15 million for NA. Add in what is in the retail channel (there are still multiple stores around me with XBox units - and at the end of last year, they were available everywhere), and the NPD number is probably pretty close. Adding another 5-10% to NPD as you say would mean that there was virtually nothing available in the retail channel at all (which is definitely not true) at that time. And if you go with your 10% number, then you have sold considerably more XBox in NA than MS even shipped, and again with absolutely nothing left in the retail channel.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

PS2 NA Shipped - 42.97m
NPD Sales - 34.2m
20,4% higher

Undertracking too?


EDIT: Hey Dalthien you were not supposed to answer yet! delete your post!

 

[Dalthien]

PS2 NA Shipped - 42.97m
NPD Sales - 34.2m
20,4% higher

Undertracking too?


EDIT: Hey Dalthien you were not supposed to answer yet! delete your post!

Crap - too late.

 

[Square2005]

PS2 NA Shipped - 42.97m
NPD Sales - 34.2m
20,4% higher

Undertracking too?


EDIT: Hey Dalthien you were not supposed to answer yet! delete your post!

If we are certain about the Canadian NPD % then I'll just add that to U.S. NPD and not add an additional 20.4% or whatever and just say Sony/Nintendo/whoever are lying about their shipments. As long as the NPD claims to track 99-100% of the market.
BTW What does the NPD claim to track of the market?

 

[Dalthien]

If we are certain about the Canadian NPD % then I'll just add that to U.S. NPD and not add an additional 20.4% or whatever and just say Sony/Nintendo/whoever are lying about their shipments. As long as the NPD claims to track 99-100% of the market.
BTW What does the NPD claim to track of the market?

Sonycowboy might have a better idea. I seem to recall it being somewhere around 65% of the market, but my memory may be off with that number. They don't track WalMart directly, but they supposedly still have a pretty good relationship with WalMart, and they have a pretty good idea of what WalMart's sales are.

In any case, I am sure that NPD does undertrack on some occasions, but certainly not all. And you definitely can't just add a constant percentage to everything NPD tracks, because as I just pointed out with the XBox example, NPD tracks very closely with shipped numbers in some cases. The Gamecube is another case where NPD is almost exact with shipped numbers. Nintendo shipped 12.17 million Gamecubes in NA through Mar/06. NPD had GC sales at 11 million in the US, add another million for Canada (GC sold just a bit better than XBox in Canada), and you are right around 12 million. In this case, NPD may have actually overtracked the Cube a bit, because that doesn't leave much in the retail channel. Although supplies were probably starting to thin out a bit by the end of March.

In any case, my point is that NPD doesn't uniformly overtrack or undertrack the market. They will be off on some products, and right on the money with other products. But just adding 5-10% to everything that NPD reports doesn't make much sense.

And yeah - I'm not sure how we got off onto NPD discussion in a Media Create thread. Sorry about that.

 

[LanceStern]

I don't know about you guys, but I' tired of all these companies lying about their shipments to deceive people and then trackign companies scaling (basically LYING) their numbers out (looks at NPD, Media Create, Famitsu, Dengeki etc)

Oh well, keep up the good work guys (Dalthien, ioi, Square2005 and the other sales chart percentage-ers). What class do you take to figure out stuff about net profits, shipments, retail etc? I'm headed off to college soon (SDSU baby!) and if I could take an economics or financial accounting class or statistics or something like that that would teach me this "upscaling" crap. Calculus only goes so far in business

 

[LanceStern]

Sonycowboy might have a better idea. I seem to recall it being somewhere around 65% of the market, but my memory may be off with that number. They don't track WalMart directly, but they supposedly still have a pretty good relationship with WalMart, and they have a pretty good idea of what WalMart's sales are.

In any case, I am sure that NPD does undertrack on some occasions, but certainly not all. And you definitely can't just add a constant percentage to everything WalMart tracks, because as I just pointed out with the XBox example, NPD tracks very closely with shipped numbers in some cases. The Gamecube is another case where NPD is almost exact with shipped numbers. Nintendo shipped 12.17 million Gamecubes in NA through Mar/06. NPD had GC sales at 10.9 million, add another million for Canada (GC sold just a bit better than XBox in Canada), and you are just under 12 million. In this case, NPD may have actually overtracked the Cube a bit, because that doesn't leave much in the retail channel. Although supplies were probably starting to thin out a bit by the end of March.

In any case, my point is that NPD doesn't uniformly overtrack or undertrack the market. They will be off on some products, and right on the money with other products. But just adding 5-10% to everything that NPD reports doesn't make much sense.

What would you suggest for those looking for accurate estimations of true sales? If 5-10% worked over 80% of the time, would it be reasonable to do it all of the time than figuring out when it does/doesn't work?

 

[Square2005]

Sonycowboy might have a better idea. I seem to recall it being somewhere around 65% of the market, but my memory may be off with that number. They don't track WalMart directly, but they supposedly still have a pretty good relationship with WalMart, and they have a pretty good idea of what WalMart's sales are.

In any case, I am sure that NPD does undertrack on some occasions, but certainly not all. And you definitely can't just add a constant percentage to everything WalMart tracks, because as I just pointed out with the XBox example, NPD tracks very closely with shipped numbers in some cases. The Gamecube is another case where NPD is almost exact with shipped numbers. Nintendo shipped 12.17 million Gamecubes in NA through Mar/06. NPD had GC sales at 10.9 million, add another million for Canada (GC sold just a bit better than XBox in Canada), and you are just under 12 million. In this case, NPD may have actually overtracked the Cube a bit, because that doesn't leave much in the retail channel. Although supplies were probably starting to thin out a bit by the end of March.

In any case, my point is that NPD doesn't uniformly overtrack or undertrack the market. They will be off on some products, and right on the money with other products. But just adding 5-10% to everything that NPD reports doesn't make much sense.

And yeah - I'm not sure how we got off onto NPD discussion in a Media Create thread. Sorry about that.

Agreed and the NPD projects the rest but how much do they claim their data represents (including their projections)? And is it the same in Canada? They also have revised their older data a couple of times. My data back to 1994 is low for Nintendo and high for Sega & Sony compared to the revised data. So I've had to make multiple adjustments. Still not so sure about my '94 numbers.

 

[Dalthien]

What would you suggest for those looking for accurate estimations of true sales? If 5-10% worked over 80% of the time, would it be reasonable to do it all of the time than figuring out when it does/doesn't work?

Well, just looking at hardware - I just showed that NPD tracked very closely with the shipping numbers for both XBox and Gamecube. That's two out of the three home consoles where they didn't undertrack at all. They seem to have undertracked the PS2, but again, we don't know how many PS2s are still sitting in Sony warehouses, or how many were returned as defective that are still included in Sony's shipment numbers, or how many units are still in the retail channel (obviously a lot since the PS2 is still moving several hundred thousand units each month just in the US), or how many units are in transit to the retail channel. Once all of that is factored in, NPD's numbers are probably closer to reality than it appears at first glance. In any case, adding 10% to the PS2 would still be too much of an adjustment. And no adjustment is needed for XBox and Gamecube. If you are going to make adjustments to NPD data, then it has to be done on a case-by-case basis, and even then you have to make a lot of assumptions about what the shipping numbers actually mean.

Agreed and the NPD projects the rest but how much do they claim their data represents (including their projections)? And is it the same in Canada? They also have revised their older data a couple of times. My data back to 1994 is low for Nintendo and high for Sega & Sony compared to the revised data. So I've had to make multiple adjustments. Still not so sure about my '94 numbers.

As far as I know, NPD claims to represent the entirety (100%) of the market. They directly track a good chunk of the market, and then they use statistical analysis to project the remaining portion of the market that they don't directly track. Obviously, they won't be completely correct with this method. But I suspect that they have relationships with representatives at Nintendo and some other publishers in order to get feedback from time to time regarding the sales numbers that the publishers have. They also keep in contact with the retail stores that they don't track directly to try to keep a good idea of exactly how much of the market they are missing when they project those stores that they don't track.

That is why you see them revise their numbers from time-to-time, because they get an indication that their statistical models need to be adjusted for their projections. In any case, considering that Nintendo actually references NPD and Media Create numbers in their presentations, I have to believe that the NPD and Media Create numbers must be pretty close to reality. At least close enough for Nintendo to be happy with them.

As far as NPD Canada goes - as I mentioned before, it is still fairly new in Canada. So I am sure that they are still working out some of the kinks in their statistical modeling in Canada.

 

[Square2005]

Well, just looking at hardware - I just showed that NPD tracked very closely with the shipping numbers for both XBox and Gamecube. That's two out of the three home consoles where they didn't undertrack at all. They seem to have undertracked the PS2, but again, we don't know how many PS2s are still sitting in Sony warehouses, or how many were returned as defective that are still included in Sony's shipment numbers, or how many units are still in the retail channel (obviously a lot since the PS2 is still moving several hundred thousand units each month just in the US), or how many units are in transit to the retail channel. Once all of that is factored in, NPDs numbers are probably closer to reality than it appears at first glance. In any case, adding 10% to the PS2 would still be too much of an adjustment. And no adjustment is needed for XBox and Gamecube. If you are going to make adjustments to NPD data, then it has to be done on a case-by-case basis, and even then you have to make a lot of assumptions about what the shipping numbers actually mean.


As far as I know, NPD claims to represent the entirety (100%) of the market. They directly track a good chunk of the market, and then they use statistical analysis to project the remaining portion of the market that they don't directly track. Obviously, they won't be completely correct with this method. But I suspect that they have relationships with representatives at Nintendo and some other publishers in order to get feedback from time to time regarding the sales numbers that the publishers have. They also keep in contact with the retail stores that they don't track directly to try to keep a good idea of exactly how much of the market they are missing when they project those stores that they don't track.

Publishers have their own sales numbers too!? How do they get them? I've always heard they only know what's bin shipped.

 

[Dalthien]

Publishers have their own sales numbers too!? How do they get them? I've always heard they only know what's bin shipped.

No, publishers don't have exact sales numbers of their own. (Although I believe that Nintendo does have its own tracking service for helping keep track of sales). I should have phrased that better. As you said, they would know their own shipment numbers, which NPD would use from time-to-time to compare to the stock which was carried at the retailers which NPD directly tracks. That would help to give NPD a good idea of how to construct their statistical model, and as you mentioned, they do go back to revise that model from time-to-time. I'm sure that conversations with some of the major publishers factor into those calculations.

 

[cvxfreak]

This data is old, and it's based on the monthly charts, but if anyone cares, here it is:

 

[Dalthien]

This data is old, and it's based on the monthly charts, but if anyone cares, here it is:

Thanks cvxfreak!

 

[Square2005]

This data is old, and it's based on the monthly charts, but if anyone cares, here it is:

Where does this data come from? It's not Famitsu or Media-create is it?

 

[cvxfreak]

Where does this data come from? It's not Famitsu or Media-create is it?

Famitsu

 

[Fuzzy]

Famitsu

Do you have the same thing for the other consoles/handhelds? I already have the HW LTD's for each through March 26th + weekly data since then.


Famitsu HW LTD's through July 30th

PS2 - 19,659,933
GBA - 8,978,795 (no longer tracked)
DS - 6,416,662
GBASP - 5,864,872
GCN - 3,986,775
PSP - 3,738,700
DSL - 3,405,024
GBM - 515,564
Xbox - 472,991 (no longer tracked)
Xbox 360 - 152,879


GBA Total - 15,359,231
DS Total - 9,821,686

 

[ioi]

Dalthien- correct I was a little rushed in my earlier post. I didn't mean so much that the same difference applies across all hardware, but that there is a fair discrepancy across all hardware. I have generally been using 7% for Canada, and a 5% adjustment for the raw NPD data, so ~12% adjustment to get from NPD to 'shipped'. As you say, for the case of the GC that seems a little low (same with Media Create- it seems NPD have actually over-tracked GC a little compared to other systems). The current ratios you get are (as of Jun 06):

	Shipped	NPD	Ratio
GC	12.27	11.03	1.11
GBA	38.45	31.81	1.21
DS	5.90	5.18	1.14
			
PS2	42.97	33.01	1.30
PSP	7.57	4.71	1.61

Which shows the previously observed trend that Sony tend to massively overship their hardware, PSP especially. I do find it hard to see that there are ~7m PS2s in stock however, plus 5m GBAs- they are never going to sell through that many (this is if you assume NPD is perfect +7% for Canada)- they are definitely tracking too low for some systems.

It's hard to get reliable ratios or scaling factors etc, if anyone remembers the trainwreck of a thread i started a while ago about Sony shipped numbers, I used a point in time where PS2s were sold out (as the last few were sold to make way for PSTwos) and assumed that at that point shipped was very close to sold through. Again, you seemed to get a ratio higher than to just account for Canada, around 13% if I remember.

It's another one of these things that nobody will agree on, but I do think that NPD does undertrack slightly (the 21% for the GBC definitely can't be explained by machines in the retail channel etc) and that ~5% plus ~7% (technically of course it's *1.05*1.07 but since you have two small numbers you can add) ~12% is a good place to start when trying to tie up shipped and raw NPD USA data.

 

[polg]

is there any DEFINITIVE FFIII/DSL prediction thread for this week?

 

[thestopsign]

is there any DEFINITIVE FFIII/DSL prediction thread for this week?

The data comes out on the Wednesday after next. Though I think we did have a thread earlier on the subject.

 

[cvxfreak]

Do you have the same thing for the other consoles/handhelds? I already have the HW LTD's for each through March 26th + weekly data since then.

It would only make sense for the PSP. I made the file for the sake of determining the tie ratios for DS since there was an error in the previous existing one. I've asked someone else to take that up.

I'll do PSP.

 

[Fuzzy]

It would only make sense for the PSP. I made the file for the sake of determining the tie ratios for DS since there was an error in the previous existing one. I've asked someone else to take that up.

I'll do PSP.

Thanks.

Using your data we can see how the DS cumulative tie-ratio has grown each month.

12/04 - 1.11

01/05 - 1.38
02/05 - 1.44
03/05 - 1.56
04/05 - 1.67
05/05 - 1.81
06/05 - 1.89
07/05 - 2.04
08/05 - 2.18
09/05 - 2.26
10/05 - 2.33
11/05 - 2.45
12/05 - 2.54

01/06 - 3.04
02/06 - 3.23
03/06 - 3.27

 

[Dalthien]

Thanks.

Using your data we can see how the DS cumulative tie-ratio has grown each month.

12/04 - 1.11

01/05 - 1.38
02/05 - 1.44
03/05 - 1.56
04/05 - 1.67
05/05 - 1.81
06/05 - 1.89
07/05 - 2.04
08/05 - 2.18
09/05 - 2.26
10/05 - 2.33
11/05 - 2.45
12/05 - 2.54

01/06 - 3.04
02/06 - 3.23
03/06 - 3.27

Considering the insane hardware sales from the end of November onwards - it is really remarkable that the system continued to increase its tie ratio through that period. You would figure that most new purchasers would only be picking up one or two games with the system, which would drop the tie ratio due to the huge hardware numbers for those months.

The huge boost in the tie ratio for February makes sense, because that was the month with the severe hardware shortages. But the jump in January is just crazy.

 

[Square2005]

This data is old, and it's based on the monthly charts, but if anyone cares, here it is:

I guess famitsu doesn't use the 4-4-5 retail calendar? What are they using?
It looks like 5-4-4 calendar but it still doesn't quite match up with my numbers.

 

[Dalthien]

I guess famitsu doesn't use the 4-4-5 retail calendar? What are they using?
It looks like 5-4-4 calendar but it still doesn't quite match up with my numbers.

Famitsu just goes to the last Sunday of every month. Then the numbers start for the next month, so the beginning of every month (except months where Sunday falls on the last day of the month) always have a few days from the previous month counted, and are missing a few days at the end of the month.

 

[cvxfreak]

It should be noted that December ends a week early for Famitsu - it's why Brain Training 2 is listed in its entirety for 2006 in the 2006 half year rankings despite having a release in 2005.

 

[Rock_Man]

Thanks cvxfreak!

Thanks.

Using your data we can see how the DS cumulative tie-ratio has grown each month.

12/04 - 1.11

01/05 - 1.38
02/05 - 1.44
03/05 - 1.56
04/05 - 1.67
05/05 - 1.81
06/05 - 1.89
07/05 - 2.04
08/05 - 2.18
09/05 - 2.26
10/05 - 2.33
11/05 - 2.45
12/05 - 2.54

01/06 - 3.04
02/06 - 3.23
03/06 - 3.27

04/06 - 3.11 (not official)
05/06 - 3.15 (not official)
06/06 - 3.19
07/06 - 3.21 (not official)

PSP
12/04 - 1.62

01/05 - 1.82
02/05 - 1.79
03/05 - 1.84
04/05 - 1.84
05/05 - 1.80
06/05 - 1.80
07/05 - 1.82
08/05 - 1.86
09/05 - 1.91
10/05 - 1.93
11/05 - 1.89
12/05 - 1.84

01/06 - 1.91
02/06 - 1.99
03/06 - 2.07
04/06 - 2.15 (not official)
05/06 - 2.21 (not official)
06/06 - 2.24
07/06 - 2.32 (not official)

 

[Moor-Angol]

Though there is also that new Daredemo game, I believe the original sold over 600,000 copies, and this one is online.

Yes, but is NOT Daredemo Asobi Taizen to get a re-release in September with Wifi option, it's Yakuman DS, the Mahjong game with Nintendo characters (and it originally sold poor, 22k according to Famitsu).

 

[Rock_Man]

XB360
Year - HW - SW - Tie ratio since launch
2005 - 81,770 - 89,303 - 1.09
2006 - 64,392 - 318k - 2.79 (through June 25)

At least the tie ratio is higher than for PSP

 

[apujanata]

06/06 - 3.19
07/06 - 3.21 (not official)

PSP
06/06 - 2.24
07/06 - 2.19 (not official)

PSP's tie ratio is significantly worse than's NDS. Anyone know why this happen ? Is it because of piracy, or is it because not many PSP's owner buy more than 2 games (on average) ?

My original thought that since there is a possibility of many DSL were sold to DS owner, DS' tie ratio are lower compared to PSP (even though I know that PSP's game are not selling as well as DS' games).

My own personal tie rate : 26 games (5 Japan, 21 US), 3 DS (2 DS + 1 DSL). Tie ratio : 8.66.

 

[yeoz]

PSP's tie ratio is significantly worse than's NDS. Anyone know why this happen ? Is it because of piracy, or is it because not many PSP's owner buy more than 2 games (on average) ?

My original thought that since there is a possibility of many DSL were sold to DS owner, DS' tie ratio are lower compared to PSP (even though I know that PSP's game are not selling as well as DS' games).

I believe it's because there are quite a few people who are buying it to use only as a media player (music/movies), and not to play games with. Since they don't buy any games, it decreases the tie ratio...

 

[apujanata]

I believe it's because there are quite a few people who are buying it to use only as a media player (music/movies), and not to play games with. Since they don't buy any games, it decreases the tie ratio...

Hmm. Most probably as music player, since I heard that not many people buy the UMD movie (worldwide). Anyone living in Japan can tell us how popular is the UMD movie ? I remember the MD (Mini Disc) are quite popular in Japan, although not popular in US & Europe (IIRC).

 

[cvxfreak]

Hmm. Most probably as music player, since I heard that not many people buy the UMD movie (worldwide). Anyone living in Japan can tell us how popular is the UMD movie ? I remember the MD (Mini Disc) are quite popular in Japan, although not popular in US & Europe (IIRC).

http://geimin.net/da/05/umd.php

UMD sales data in 2005.

 

[jesusraz]

http://geimin.net/da/05/umd.php

UMD sales data in 2005.

85,701 units for Final Fantasy VII Advent Children? I thought it'd sold LOADS...must have been the DVD version that bumped it up to over a million copies sold.

 

[ioi]

Hi everyone, I've started a brand new predictions league for anyone who want's to try their hand at being an analyst. For this week it'll just be done by hand on the forum, but from next week we will have a proper system in place where you can upload your predictions each week.

http://www.vgcharts.org/forum/thread.php?id=9

 

[tanasten]

Hi everyone, I've started a brand new predictions league for anyone who want's to try their hand at being an analyst. For this week it'll just be done by hand on the forum, but from next week we will have a proper system in place where you can upload your predictions each week.

http://www.vgcharts.org/forum/thread.php?id=9

:lol Nice feature ioi.

 

[Pureauthor]

Nice, ioi.