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[offshore]

Excellent numbers both software and hardware. SE must be happy that they have sold so well notwithstanding the PS3 installed base.

Install base really means nothing for a highly anticipated game IMO. That's why they're called system sellers. When the games comes, people buy the system. The alleged PS3 numbers seem to back that up.

 

[AniHawk]

Wii and PS3 are 140k apart this year so far. I don't think anything is clearly the winner yet. The PS3 has proven it can really run with a sales spike for a good while.

Anyway, I think next year the PS3 will be on top by a good few hundred thousand.

 

[Chris1964]

The Wii vs. PS3 sales battle should be quite interesting to see next year though.

What's interesting is for how long NSMBW will manage to carry Wii alone since it looks the only high profile game until at least Golden Week, besides Darkside Chronicles. Weeks 2 and 3 of 2010 will tell us many things for Wii/PS3 battle next year.

 

[schuelma]

Wii and PS3 are 140k apart this year so far. I don't think anything is clearly the winner yet. The PS3 has proven it can really run with a sales spike for a good while.

Anyway, I think next year the PS3 will be on top by a good few hundred thousand.

I have no idea what to think about next year. Certainly just looking at Q1 PS3 has a better lineup (though who knows if NSMB Wii can maintain momentum for a quarter or two).

But as far as this year and December, I don't think there is any way PS3 can catch up. Wii will probably get close to 200K this week on its own and I expect it to be back on top next week when FF13 fades.

 

[Orgen]

The Wii vs. PS3 sales battle should be quite interesting to see next year though.

I'm very bad with predictions, but I don't see the PS3 beating the Wii next year. It could be with FF XIII Versus, but if DQ X is out next year... then the PS3 has no chance IMO.

 

[schuelma]

What's interesting is for how long will manage to carry Wii alone since it looks the only high profile game until at least Golden Week, besides Darkside Chronicles. Weeks 2 and 3 of 2010 will tell us many things for Wii/PS3 battle next year.

Indeed. If sales are at 30K and falling fast in the 3rd week in January Nintendo is effed.

 

[AniHawk]

I have no idea what to think about next year. Certainly just looking at Q1 PS3 has a better lineup (though who knows if NSMB Wii can maintain momentum for a quarter or two).

But as far as this year and December, I don't think there is any way PS3 can catch up. Wii will probably get close to 200K this week on its own and I expect it to be back on top next week when FF13 fades.

PS3 has momentum given to it by third party titles and the big one: GT5. The Wii has a game from the previous year and probably Wii Relax and that's it. Super Mario Galaxy 2 isn't going to do anything (I'm assuming low total sales for that- 600k in Japan, like Majora's Mask), and Metroid will be an outright bomb. With the release of the new Zelda, Nintendo will officially be out of ideas for this generation and the Wii will be dead.

2011's gonna be real interesting if nobody has plans for a new system that year. Although I think it's the launch year for new handhelds.

 

[Sage00]

Depending on how the Mario effect lasts through late January, I think PS3 will build up a few hundred thousand lead on Wii with End of Eternity/Star Ocean 4/Yakuza 4. From there Wii will face the uphill battle of turning it around that PS3 had this year. Though since the holidays are always on Nintendo's side if they have a big enough game again they can certainly do it.

but if DQ X is out next year..

Don't worry, zero chance of that one.

I'm beginning to think they might be forced into doing.. it.

Yeah, that it.

Zii HD.

 

[Chris1964]

These are Wii sales of 2009 until Golden Week. 2010 Week 1 will be much bigger but if it starts dropping rapidly after that...

119.965
41.243
32.333
26.770
23.278
20.412
21.016
16.973
17.876
16.560
17.941
18.095
17.276
15.525
13.349
13.221
18.439
21.546
24.397 ->Golden Week

 

[Nirolak]

I'm trying to think of the somewhat larger titles we have for the systems next year so far. This is probably a very incomplete list, but what I could think of off the top of my head.

Most of these probably won't move much in the way of hardware though.

PS3:
January:
-End of Eternity
-Ar Tonelico 3
-Star Ocean 4

March:
-Yakuza 4
-Fist of the North Star Musou
-Resident Evil 5: Alternative Edition

Fall:
-Naruto: Ultimate Ninja Storm 2
-White Knight Chronicles 2
-Maybe Versus XIII

March or Summer:
-Gran Turismo 5
-The Motion Controller

---

Wii:
January:
-Resident Evil: Darkside Chronicles

After Q1:
-Super Mario Galaxy 2
-Wii Relax

Fall:
-Maybe Zelda

 

[schuelma]

Depending on how the Mario effect lasts through late January, I think PS3 will build up a few hundred thousand lead on Wii with End of Eternity/Star Ocean 4/Yakuza 4. From there Wii will face the uphill battle of turning it around that PS3 had this year. Though since the holidays are always on Nintendo's side if they have a big enough game again they can certainly do it.

.

I mean, that is certainly possible, though out of the games you listed only Yakuza 4 would have any sort of hardware impact.

I really don't feel comfortable projecting Q1 and all of 2010 yet given the unknowns of PS3 and Wii coming out of the holiday- either one could maintain momentum after the new year.

 

[ReyBrujo]

Wii and PS3 are 140k apart this year so far. I don't think anything is clearly the winner yet. The PS3 has proven it can really run with a sales spike for a good while.

Anyway, I think next year the PS3 will be on top by a good few hundred thousand.

That is what I meant. Ending the year with maybe 3-5% advantage is not "clear advantage". I believe next year Wii will come on top again.

 

[Sage00]

I mean, that is certainly possible, though out of the games you listed only Yakuza 4 would have any sort of hardware impact.

I really don't feel comfortable projecting Q1 and all of 2010 yet given the unknowns of PS3 and Wii coming out of the holiday- either one could maintain momentum after the new year.

I'm thinking of these games as something that will maintain momentum at a level above Wii for a period of time, rather than pushing hardware higher. Not exactly a new baseline for PS3, but sort of an extended lift on the baseline.

 

[Road]

As we know, Wii's 2010H1 fate depends on NSMBWii, but I'm thinking 2010 will be a 2009 redux: PS3 will be ahead for most of the first half and Wii will take the lead later on.

 

[Orgen]

PS3 has momentum given to it by third party titles and the big one: GT5. The Wii has a game from the previous year and probably Wii Relax and that's it. Super Mario Galaxy 2 isn't going to do anything (I'm assuming low total sales for that- 600k in Japan, like Majora's Mask), and Metroid will be an outright bomb. With the release of the new Zelda, Nintendo will officially be out of ideas for this generation and the Wii will be dead.

SMG2 will be > 600K for sure, but I don't know how much of a system seller it'll be. And the same goes for Wii Relax... it could be the next Wii Sport/Wii Fit thing or the new Wii Music flop. Metroid will do nothing and if DQ X and the new Zelda are 2011 then yes, the PS3 will beat the Wii. (and by a wide margin)

 

[Nirolak]

As we know, Wii's 2010H1 fate depends on NSMBWii, but I'm thinking 2010 will be a 2009 redux: PS3 will be ahead for most of the first half and Wii will take the lead later on.

Actually, the PS3 wasn't really ahead for most of the first half.

 

[schuelma]

I'm thinking of these games as something that will maintain momentum at a level above Wii for a period of time, rather than pushing hardware higher. Not exactly a new baseline for PS3, but sort of an extended lift on the baseline.

I can definitely buy that..my only point is that right now we don't know what kind of momentum each system will have in January. I could see both systems maintaining a nice level of sales, and I could see both systems crashing down to earth without the holidays for Wii and without FF13 for PS3.

The thing with the Wii that seems generally true is that decent, mid-tier franchises, first or third party, don't really do much for hardware- it has sold on the backs of huge franchises since launch so in reality I don't think a "stronger" lineup makes much of a difference unless that lineup includes a killer game in Q1. Wii will live and die with NSMB Wii for the time being.

 

[Chris1964]

I'm thinking of these games as something that will maintain momentum at a level above Wii for a period of time, rather than pushing hardware higher. Not exactly a new baseline for PS3, but sort of an extended lift on the baseline.

Like I said NSMBW will determine the status of Wii the first quarter. First 3 weeks of 2010 will be very important for both Wii and PS3.

 

[devilhawk]

PS3 has momentum given to it by third party titles and the big one: GT5. The Wii has a game from the previous year and probably Wii Relax and that's it. Super Mario Galaxy 2 isn't going to do anything (I'm assuming low total sales for that- 600k in Japan, like Majora's Mask), and Metroid will be an outright bomb. With the release of the new Zelda, Nintendo will officially be out of ideas for this generation and the Wii will be dead.

2011's gonna be real interesting if nobody has plans for a new system that year. Although I think it's the launch year for new handhelds.

I think it's quite likely Nintendo pulls a news Mario Party iteration out of its ass. This is the longest gap between Mario Party games in the franchise's history.

I just get the feeling that something Pokemon may appear.

 

[squall211]

The Wii vs. PS3 sales battle should be quite interesting to see next year though.

Indeed it should, especially Q1. The PS3 has at least three RPGs coming out in Q1 in Japan I believe with Ar Tonelico 3, Star Ocean 4, and End of Eternity. That should help keep hardware numbers respectable.

Does the Wii have any high(er) profile games coming out during Q1?

 

[selig]

The Wii vs. PS3 sales battle should be quite interesting to see next year though.

wat

I don´t see a pulling force next year that would get the PS3 even close to the Wii´s hardware sales. There won´t be another price cut, and FF13 is out. The two remaining big hitters are GoW and GT5, but only GT5 may do a little bit for the Japanese audience.

Or im missing something that makes you that confident about your excitement. Please tell, if so

 

[gerg]

I think that Wii Relax might be a wildcard that we may be underestimating, and I think the fact that the Vitality Sensor is so "out there" is a very good thing. The question, of course, is whether or not there is a market for the type of software that will most likely accompany the peripheral.

 

[Chris1964]

Metroid will do nothing.

Why is everyone so sure about that? This game is completely different from the previous. PokePark became a sleeper hit, maybe Other M can do something similar. I don't expect huge numbers but also not disastrous.

 

[schuelma]

You know, looking again at the Wii's 2010 "lineup"..its so unbelievably bare the conspiracy theorist in me is starting to wonder whether some sort of new hardware revision is coming. Not a completely new system, but something.

 

[Chuck Norris]

I was right on the money with FFXIII, but 100k under with PS3 hardware predictions. Oh well.

wat

I don´t see a pulling force next year that would get the PS3 even close to the Wii´s hardware sales. There won´t be another price cut, and FF13 is out. The two remaining big hitters are GoW and GT5, but only GT5 may do a little bit for the Japanese audience.

Or im missing something that makes you that confident about your excitement. Please tell, if so

Momentum is a big factor. I'd like to see PS3 take off like PS1 did with FFVII

 

[Road]

Actually, the PS3 wasn't really ahead for most of the first half.

http://i46.tinypic.com/16ge91.png

You're right. I just had in my head the PS3 was ahead somewhere around the Golden Week.

Either way, I think 2010 will mirror that graph more or less. It's early to say PS3 has no significant releases lined up for the second half of the year, but, well, AFAWK, it doesn't. And the lack of software hurts the PS3 more than the Wii, which, for better or for worse, has MKWii, WSR, WF+ and possibly NSBWii selling forever.

 

[Majmun]

wat

I don´t see a pulling force next year that would get the PS3 even close to the Wii´s hardware sales. There won´t be another price cut, and FF13 is out. The two remaining big hitters are GoW and GT5, but only GT5 may do a little bit for the Japanese audience.

Or im missing something that makes you that confident about your excitement. Please tell, if so

Yakuza 4 and the RPG's should do well.

I dn't think Nintendo has anything huge so far when it comes to Japanese releases. A Pokemon game for consoles was never a huge, I think. If they ever plan to release one of those..

 

[ZoddGutts]

I'm trying to think of the somewhat larger titles we have for the systems next year so far. This is probably a very incomplete list, but what I could think of off the top of my head.

Most of these probably won't move much in the way of hardware though.

PS3:

There's also White Knight Chronicles 2 which was already announced a few months ago with a trailer, that's likely to be a Fall release next year.

 

[Nirolak]

I think that Wii Relax might be a wildcard that we may be underestimating, and I think the fact that the Vitality Sensor is so "out there" is a very good thing. The question, of course, is whether or not there is a market for the type of software that will most likely accompany the peripheral.

Out of curiosity, does anyone know how the Biometric Sensor market has been doing so far?

With Wii Sports and Wii Fit, the Wii managed to really build on the existing popularity of sports and fitness, but I haven't really heard that many people really being enthralled by biometric sensors lately.

Of course, this might mean that Nintendo has a chance to take the concept and sell it to a new audience, but it does mean that they have to work harder to build that audience in the first place.

There's also White Knight Chronicles 2 which was already announced a few months ago with a trailer, that's likely to be a Fall release next year.

Right. Thank you.

Why is everyone so sure about that? This game is completely different from the previous. PokePark became a sleeper hit, maybe Other M can do something similar. I don't expect huge numbers but also not disastrous.

Well, it kind of looks like a mix between Ninja Gaiden and Metroid. Ninja Gaiden didn't do that great in the market either.

 

[Durante]

Indeed it should, especially Q1. The PS3 has at least three RPGs coming out in Q1 in Japan I believe with Ar Tonelico 3, Star Ocean 4, and End of Eternity. That should help keep hardware numbers respectable.

They're not just in Q1, they're on the same day. Utter madness.

Anyway, AT3 will be a success if it sells more than 100k, so I don't think it has any significance in the Wii/PS3 battle. That doesn't diminish its role as the game of the year of course.

 

[Chuck Norris]

You're right. I just had in my head the PS3 was ahead somewhere around the Golden Week.

Either way, I think 2010 will mirror that graph more or less. It's early to say PS3 has no significant releases lined up for the second half of the year, but, well, AFAWK, it doesn't. And the lack of software hurts the PS3 more than the Wii, which, for better or for worse, has MKWii, WSR, WF+ and possibly NSBWii selling forever.

Gran Turismo and Versus XIII aren't big titles?

Keep in mind XIII should have legs too

 

[Chris1964]

Keep in mind XIII should have legs too

Final Fantasy XIII will have legs? I wouldn't bet my money on that.

 

[gerg]

Out of curiosity, does anyone know how the Biometric Sensor market has been doing so far?

With Wii Sports and Wii Fit, the Wii managed to really build on the existing popularity of sports and fitness, but I haven't really heard that many people really being enthralled by biometric sensors lately.

Of course, this might mean that Nintendo has a chance to take the concept and sell it to a new audience, but it does mean that they have to work harder to build that audience in the first place.

I think you're looking at it the wrong way. The existing market isn't so much the "Biometric Sensor" market, but the "home meditation/relaxation" market.

 

[devilhawk]

Gran Turismo and Versus XIII aren't big titles?

Keep in mind XIII should have legs too

Yes, they are big. No, the past numbers have no legs.

 

[schuelma]

Gran Turismo and Versus XIII aren't big titles?

Keep in mind XIII should have legs too

GT5 will definitely be big. Not sure Versus makes it out next year but that will be big as well of course.

I really really doubt FF13 has legs.

 

[Durante]

There's also FF14. How much did 11 sell in Japan? (It wasn't on the previous list)

 

[schuelma]

There's also FF14. How much did 11 sell in Japan? (It wasn't on the previous list)

I think it only sold 150K or so.

 

[selig]

Momentum is a big factor.

Yeah, but I think Nintendo has a bit of a momentum as well. And even before all the heavy hitters were released, Wii was always selling well above what the PS3 did. Of course, if someone could post the release-list for early next year again, it´d be easier to tell.
Still, i think Wii will keep riding on NSMB Wii for a long time, combined with the price cut, that didn´t do huge numbers at its time, but kept the Wii above the 20k mark.

And after all is said, yeah, one has to wonder what Nintendo has planned. Mario Galaxy 2 will be 2010´s christmas game, and it won´t do magic numbers after Galaxy 1 "only" did close to 1 million. And Metroid, as someone said, will do nothing. So, there´s either a BIG surprise coming...or another BIG surprise in the form of Zelda Wii being released in 2010 already and featuring a setting and gameplay offerings that let itself transcend beyond what former console Zelda-games did in terms of sales.

 

[Nirolak]

I think you're looking at it the wrong way. The existing market isn't so much the "Biometric Sensor" market, but the "home meditation/relaxation" market.

Well that's fair. It could have some good success there, but it depends if that audience is willing to wear something like the vitality sensor while meditating /relaxing.

I almost wonder if targeting that market would work better without a peripheral, especially without one that you have to wear on your finger while connected to a large weight.

 

[Sage00]

Does anyone have hardware data for the weeks following FFX and FFXII (or any other RPGs)? I'm wondering if, after a period of time where there are enough used copies, a hardware bump is sustained while software sales go down as people continue to buy the system for the game but instead opt for a used copy.

RE FF11: To be fair the game was $120+ :]

 

[Chuck Norris]

Final Fantasy XIII will have legs? I wouldn't bet my money on that.

I don't know the week by week history but all the Final Fantasies have seemed to have sold 500 - 600k past their first week. That's hardly bad at all unless that's all centered in the second and third week?

But even still, being the major PS3 title it is, I wouldn't be shocked if it stays in the top 20 for awhile as the must have PS3 title with your new console.

No, the past numbers have no legs.

That sounds a bit like exaggeration?

 

[Road]

Gran Turismo and Versus XIII aren't big titles?

Keep in mind XIII should have legs too

I was talking 2nd half of 2010. Was GT5 pushed back? (Honest question). And god knows when FFVsXIII will be released. Could be this year, but I was talking of games that were at least hinted when they'd come.

Not sure GT5 legs (if it'll have legs outside of bundles) will be enough to stop PS3 from going under 10k if there are no new games.

 

[Nirolak]

That sounds a bit like exaggeration?

 

[schuelma]

I admit I find this amusing- FF13 and PS3 numbers have hit, now its on to the next major battle- Wii v. PS3 2010!

 

[gerg]

Well that's fair. It could have some good success there, but it depends if that audience is willing to wear something like the vitality sensor while meditating /relaxing.

I almost wonder if targeting that market would work better without a peripheral, especially without one that you have to wear on your finger while connected to a large weight.

It depends.

The thing is, this device is operating under a new paradigm, much like the Wii Remote did when normal controllers are the standard. This leads me to think that, if the device is successful, it will be very successful.

Mario Galaxy 2 will be 2010´s christmas game, and it won´t do magic numbers after Galaxy 1 "only" did close to 1 million.

No it won't.

 

[Chris1964]

I don't know the week by week history but all the Final Fantasies have seemed to have sold 500 - 600k past their first week. That's hardly bad at all unless that's all centered in the second and third week?

But even still, being the major PS3 title it is, I wouldn't be shocked if it stays in the top 20 for awhile as the must have PS3 title with your new console.

Look at the previous page. Final Fantasy is the definition of the front-loading game.

 

[squall211]

That sounds a bit like exaggeration?

I think most if not all FF games sold roughly 90% of their LTD by the end of 3 weeks.

 

[schuelma]

Getting back to an earlier point I raised- does anyone think Nintendo has some sort of hardware revision in store for next year, or do they just have by far the worst lineup in the Wii's history?

 

[gerg]

Getting back to an earlier point I raised- does anyone think Nintendo has some sort of hardware revision in store for next year, or do they just have by far the worst lineup in the Wii's history?

I don't think that Nintendo has a Wii hardware revision in store.

 

[Chris1964]

Getting back to an earlier point I raised- does anyone think Nintendo has some sort of hardware revision in store for next year, or do they just have by far the worst lineup in the Wii's history?

I don't think so and if there is it will be minor. I don't expect a revision at system's specs but more at its design and maybe bundling motion+ and Wii Sports Resort with it.