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Media Create Sales: Feb. 8 - 14, 2010

T

The_lascar

Member
Predictions
[NDS] Super Robot Wars OG: Saga Endless Frontier Exceed (Namco Bandai) - 80k
[NDS] Shiren the Wanderer 4: Kami no Hitomi to Akuma no Heso (Spike) - 60k
[NDS] Estpolis: The Lands Cursed by the Gods (Square Enix) - 20k
[NDS] Higurashi no Nakukoru ni Kizuna: 4th Chapter - Kizuna (Alchemist) - 18k
[PSP] Hot Shots Tennis Portable (SCE) - 90k
[PSP] Kenka Bancho 4: Ichinen Sensou (Spike) - 45k
[PSP] BlazBlue Portable (Arc System Works) - 17k
[PSP] Power Pro Success Legends (Konami) - 17k
 
D

Dalthien

Member
Koren said:
It's definitively NOT phenomenal. It's a bare minimum if you want to know sales at thousands/tens of thousands resolution (and I think many DD releases are not hundred thousands sellers). See explainations above.
Click to expand...
I absolutely agree. I was only referring to gauging the overall size of the DD market, and tracking the top titles. In that case, 300k would actually be overkill if the sample size is a true reflection of the overall market. But as I've been trying to point out, I have serious doubts that Enterbrain has any real idea who actually comprises the overall DD marketplace.

Koren said:
Again, the basic idea is simple: if you ask people in the set "did you buy game X", you need enough "yes" so that you can estimate the total sales.

If a game sold 2k to a population of 20M system owners (1 out of 10.000) and your set is 100k, you'll get (assuming the set is random), a mean of 10 positive answers. With 10 answers, the incertaincy is still high. Should you have a subset of 20k owners, the mean is 2 positive answers, and the variance (and % error) is insane.

Of course, if a game sell 500k, there's no problem with a 2k set... But are sales in the x.xxx range or in the xxx.xxx range? So if it's 300k owners of different kind of devices (DSi, PSP, Wii, PS3, iPhones), don't expect any precise results under 10k sales.
Click to expand...
Donny pointed this out earlier as well, and you are both correct. 300k out of a total marketplace in the tens of millions will be damn near useless for tracking titles on the lower end of the sales range with any sort of accuracy. Which is why I was going on the assumption that Enterbrain isn't even intending for this to be some sort of complete tracking program. I'm guessing that it is only intended to provide some sort of overall picture of the size of each DD market, and some of the better selling titles. If they are genuinely trying to accurately track the full marketplace and all titles in that marketplace, then 300k will be woefully inadequate.

Koren said:
And, I'd like to stress the fact that random set is not optimal. You'd rather choose a set with a decent size of each kind of consumers, and know how many kind of consumers you have in the whole population. A minority in an inhomogeneous population can be a majority of buyers of a given title, so you'd want a big chunk of people in the minority so that the estimation is correct, even if the minority itself represent a very low percentage of the total population.
Click to expand...

Again, I absolutely agree. Which is why I've tried stressing that you need a truly random sample of people from a group that is representative of the population that you are trying to model. A random sample that doesn't actually represent the population that you are modeling is useless for predictive purposes. This is where I see Enterbrain running into major problems in terms of deriving any sort of accuracy. In order to obtain a proper sample subset, they need to know and understand the full DD gaming population that they are trying to model. I don't think they have the slightest clue of how the full DD population breaks down. And without receiving actual sales numbers from the platform holders, they have no basis on which to judge the usefulness of their sample group.

Koren said:
Of course, you can correct the results with multipliers (e.g. multiply estimations by 2.5 for popular shmups because shmups fans will all buy the new R-Type, and the shmup fans are a very minority in the random set) But you'll still need a larger set, and the multipliers are difficult to estimate (and the correction non-linear)
Click to expand...
Yeah, the multipliers are damn near impossible to estimate accurately without understanding the full marketplace. But without receiving the actual DD numbers from Sony, Microsoft, et. al, Enterbrain really doesn't have any idea which multipliers to use or how to use them.

Polling from reputable firms tends to work moderately well in politics because you are not trying to poll for some Joe Blow that will receive 0.1% of the vote (you are generally only focused on 2 or 3 main contestants - with another contestant being named 'Other'), and because there is a pretty good understanding in place of the population that you are trying to model. There are past election results to give an idea of the population size and breakdown. There is data available regarding percentages for registered party affiliation, percentage of men/women, percentage of people by age, percentage of rural/urban voters, income distribution, etc. Sometimes there is even data available for stuff like religious breakdowns. And this data can be compared to your sample size to verify if the sample size is representative of the full voting population. If the sample size is off a bit, then multipliers are applied to bring the data back in line with the full voting population. That is all impossible for Enterbrain if they don't have a firm understanding of the full DD gaming population. And I have no reason to believe that they do.
 
C

charlequin

Banned
Dalthien said:
Charlequin, please don't automatically assume that I don't have a solid knowledge of sampling and polling.
Click to expand...

Sorry, my knee jerked pretty fierce there for a second, reading that discussion. My apologies. :lol

I am in full agreement that there are many, many potential problems with the sampling itself that can make a sample of any size worthless, and indeed, without a quite detailed breakdown of the methodology I would assume that this particular program, like most other similar efforts we've seen in the past, will be poorly designed and therefore of dubious utility.

Koren said:
It's definitively NOT phenomenal. It's a bare minimum if you want to know sales at thousands/tens of thousands resolution (and I think many DD releases are not hundred thousands sellers).
Click to expand...

This assumes that the goal of this exercise is to duplicate the functionality of MC-style sales charts, only for DD games, but that exercise would be fairly foolish for exactly the reasons you identify -- any sampling-oriented strategy like this is going to lack the resolution to deliver accurate results regarding products that sell to a miniscule fraction of "the market" and with consumer-end polling you're never actually going to get enough data to correct for this.

That's why I've assumed this is comparable to other efforts like the one NPD announced a while back: to use polling data to produce a list of the relative performance of top downloadable titles (compared to one another and to retail sales) on a coarse-grained scale.

Dalthien said:
That is all impossible for Enterbrain if they don't have a firm understanding of the full DD gaming population. And I have no reason to believe that they do.
Click to expand...

The primary value of an exercise like this would seem to me to be gaining a better knowledge of the DD gaming population as a subset of the gaming population as a whole, even if structuring your sample in such a way reduces the resolution you can actually apply to estimating title sales. A result like "we tried to do this and we discovered less than 1% of Japanese gamers download anything ever" would quite interesting and useful, IMO, if not perhaps monetarily valuable to those who paid to conduct it.
 
K

Kurosaki Ichigo

Member
Predictions
[NDS] Super Robot Wars OG: Saga Endless Frontier Exceed (Namco Bandai) - 71k
[NDS] Shiren the Wanderer 4: Kami no Hitomi to Akuma no Heso (Spike) - 42k
[NDS] Estpolis: The Lands Cursed by the Gods (Square Enix) - 26k
[NDS] Higurashi no Nakukoru ni Kizuna: 4th Chapter - Kizuna (Alchemist) - 24k
[PSP] Hot Shots Tennis Portable (SCE) - 59k
[PSP] Kenka Bancho 4: Ichinen Sensou (Spike) - 67k
[PSP] BlazBlue Portable (Arc System Works) - 23k
[PSP] Power Pro Success Legends (Konami) - 12k
 
C

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
I'll lowball everything.

Predictions
[NDS] Super Robot Wars OG: Saga Endless Frontier Exceed (Namco Bandai) - 70k
[NDS] Shiren the Wanderer 4: Kami no Hitomi to Akuma no Heso (Spike) - 45k
[NDS] Estpolis: The Lands Cursed by the Gods (Square Enix) - 20k
[NDS] Higurashi no Nakukoru ni Kizuna: 4th Chapter - Kizuna (Alchemist) - 15k
[PSP] Hot Shots Tennis Portable (SCE) - 50k
[PSP] Kenka Bancho 4: Ichinen Sensou (Spike) - 40k
[PSP] BlazBlue Portable (Arc System Works) - 15k
[PSP] Power Pro Success Legends (Konami) - 10k
 
N

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
I guess 5k above Chris. :p

Predictions
[NDS] Super Robot Wars OG: Saga Endless Frontier Exceed (Namco Bandai) - 75k
[NDS] Shiren the Wanderer 4: Kami no Hitomi to Akuma no Heso (Spike) - 50k
[NDS] Estpolis: The Lands Cursed by the Gods (Square Enix) - 25k
[NDS] Higurashi no Nakukoru ni Kizuna: 4th Chapter - Kizuna (Alchemist) - 20k
[PSP] Hot Shots Tennis Portable (SCE) - 55k
[PSP] Kenka Bancho 4: Ichinen Sensou (Spike) - 45k
[PSP] BlazBlue Portable (Arc System Works) - 20k
[PSP] Power Pro Success Legends (Konami) - 15k
 
R

Road

Member
I wasn't going to predict (too many games and too little interest), but it's not like it costs me money, so here it its whatever (based on this thread discussions lol):

[NDS] Super Robot Wars OG: Saga Endless Frontier Exceed (Namco Bandai) - 60k
[NDS] Shiren the Wanderer 4: Kami no Hitomi to Akuma no Heso (Spike) - 50k
[NDS] Estpolis: The Lands Cursed by the Gods (Square Enix) - 20k
[NDS] Higurashi no Nakukoru ni Kizuna: 4th Chapter - Kizuna (Alchemist) - 20k
[PSP] Hot Shots Tennis Portable (SCE) - 30k
[PSP] Kenka Bancho 4: Ichinen Sensou (Spike) - 40k
[PSP] BlazBlue Portable (Arc System Works) - 20k
[PSP] Power Pro Success Legends (Konami) - 10k
 
S

Spiegel

Member
Top 10

01. [PS3] Resident Evil 5: Alternative Edition (Capcom)
02. [PSP] God Eater (Namco Bandai)
03. [WII] New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Nintendo)
04. [NDS] Dragon Quest VI: Realms of Reviere (Square Enix)
05. [NDS] Friend Collection (Nintendo)
06. [PS3] Heavy Rain (SCE)
07. [NDS] Yugioh World Championship 2010 (Konami)
08. [WII] Wii Fit Plus (Nintendo)
09. [NDS] The Legend of Zelda: Spirit Tracks (Nintendo)
10. [NDS] Pokemon Heart Gold / Soul Silver (Pokemon Co.)

http://www.famitsu.com/game/rank/sokuho/1232372_1796.html
 
C

Cosmonaut X

Member
Not a bad start for Heavy Rain - probably somewhere north of 25-30k. RE5:AE looks like it could have done over 100k, depending on how far GE fell.

Quite a bounce for Spirit Tracks as well - renewed ad campaign or just the price slashing having a dramatic effect?
 
C

confuziz

Banned
http://blog.livedoor.jp/htmk73/archives/2737131.html

01. [PS3] Resident Evil 5: Alternative Edition (Capcom) - 140,100/140,100
02. [PSP] God Eater (Namco Bandai) - 68,200/449,100
03. [WII] New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Nintendo) - 48,900/3,378,200
04. [NDS] Dragon Quest VI: Realms of Reviere (Square Enix) - 43,600/1,222,400
05. [NDS] Friend Collection (Nintendo) - 37,100/2,895,000
06. [PS3] Heavy Rain (SCE) - 26,000/26,000
07. [NDS] Yugioh World Championship 2010 (Konami) - 24,500/24,500
08. [WII] Wii Fit Plus (Nintendo) - 22,300/1,657,900
09. [NDS] The Legend of Zelda: Spirit Tracks (Nintendo) - 13,500/584,600
10. [NDS] Pokemon Heart Gold / Soul Silver (Pokemon Co.) - 12,300/3,600,300

Rest of top 50 is also up.
 
S

Souldriver

Member
doicare said:
After playing some Lost In Nightmares i think now is a good a time as any for my resident evil 5 alternative edition week 1 prediction:

resident evil 5 A.E. - 140,000
Click to expand...
Talk about being on the mark.
 
S

slaughterking

Member
There's really not much left for Nippon Ichi. :(
Hopefully Prinny 2 will do at least okay-ish. And they should get a D3 PSP port and D4 out asap.
 
C

Cosmonaut X

Member
Looks like Reginleiv is going to top out at 40-50k max from those figures, and still no sign of whether NSMB Wii is going to stabilise yet...
 
S

Segata Sanshiro

Member
confuziz said:
http://blog.livedoor.jp/htmk73/archives/2737131.html

01. [PS3] Resident Evil 5: Alternative Edition (Capcom) - 140,100/140,100
02. [PSP] God Eater (Namco Bandai) - 68,200/449,100
03. [WII] New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Nintendo) - 48,900/3,378,200
04. [NDS] Dragon Quest VI: Realms of Reviere (Square Enix) - 43,600/1,222,400
05. [NDS] Friend Collection (Nintendo) - 37,100/2,895,000
06. [PS3] Heavy Rain (SCE) - 26,000/26,000
07. [NDS] Yugioh World Championship 2010 (Konami) - 24,500/24,500
08. [WII] Wii Fit Plus (Nintendo) - 22,300/1,657,900
09. [NDS] The Legend of Zelda: Spirit Tracks (Nintendo) - 13,500/584,600
10. [NDS] Pokemon Heart Gold / Soul Silver (Pokemon Co.) - 12,300/3,600,300

Rest of top 50 is also up.
Click to expand...
Haha, jeez, doicare is a fucking prophet!
 
N

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
PS3 バイオハザード5 オルタナティブエディション 140,100/140,100/87%
XB360 バイオハザード5（Xbox 360 プラチナコレクション） 500 18%

So, if I'm reading this right, the Xbox 360 version sold 0.357% of what the PS3 version did.
 
S

Spiegel

Member
Nirolak said:
PS3 バイオハザード5 オルタナティブエディション 140,100/140,100/87%
XB360 バイオハザード5（Xbox 360 プラチナコレクション） 500 18%

So, if I'm reading this right, the Xbox 360 version sold 0.357% of what the PS3 version did.
Click to expand...

360 didn't get the Alternative Edition, just the usual "Platinum Hits"
 
S

Segata Sanshiro

Member
Nirolak said:
PS3 バイオハザード5 オルタナティブエディション 140,100/140,100/87%
XB360 バイオハザード5（Xbox 360 プラチナコレクション） 500 18%

So, if I'm reading this right, the Xbox 360 version of RE5's re-release sold 0.357% of what the PS3 version did.
Click to expand...
and that 0.357% was a fifth of the shipment. So they shipped 2500 copies? Haha, no wonder I didn't see it anywhere.
 
S

Spiegel

Member
1,000,000-ton no Barabara/Patchwork Heroes bombed too, but I'm going to use the "it was released on PSN too!" card because duckroll bought the downloadable version.
 
G

gkryhewy

Member
Great numbers for RE5AE; well deserved. I just finished my first playthrough of RE5 last night actually (on 360 with Lost in Nightmares), and I completely loved it. Podcasts were suggesting that it wasn't worth playing as a single player game when it was first released, but I found it to play quite well; I had no issues with partner AI.
 
J

JoshuaJSlone

Member
So what's special about Alternative Edition? I knew about the extra controller feature, but since the controller isn't out yet there must be something else causing it to start so big.
 
S

Segata Sanshiro

Member
JoshuaJSlone said:
So what's special about Alternative Edition? I knew about the extra controller feature, but since the controller isn't out yet there must be something else causing it to start so big.
Click to expand...
Tons of extra content to play through with new characters. It's kind of like an expansion.
 
S

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
I just noticed that unless I'm missing it, FF13 is gone from the top 50.
 
D

Durante

Member
slaughterking said:
There's really not much left for Nippon Ichi. :(
Click to expand...
They should just stick to their core competency and make a new SRPG. From 2003 to 2008 they released one every year, but nothing since january 2008.
 
D

dolemite

Member
Durante said:
They should just stick to their core competency and make a new SRPG. From 2003 to 2008 they released one every year, but nothing since january 2008.
Click to expand...
Probably because the released titles were selling like shit.
 
B

Bebpo

Banned
If it helps, I can safely say after playing it that the budget for Classic Dungeon was probably around the level of an XBLA title. So maybe 100-200k. I don't think they need to sell more than a few thousand to profit. Plus using GAF as a sample base, 2 of the 3 people who bought it purchased it on PSN. So with a small title like this, a decent portion of the sales may be online.

Durante said:
They should just stick to their core competency and make a new SRPG. From 2003 to 2008 they released one every year, but nothing since january 2008.
Click to expand...

They skipped 2009, but 2010 has TWO, One in a few weeks with Zettai Hero on PSP and then Disgaea 4 later in the year on PS3.

dolemite said:
Probably because the released titles were selling like shit.
Click to expand...

Uh, no. They did 60-120k each year. For a small team that makes yearly titles, that was a profitable model. If Zettai Hero bombs, it'll just show that PSP is not the place to put their big games.
 
D

Durante

Member
dolemite said:
Probably because the released titles were selling like shit.
Click to expand...
Average sales of N1 SRPGs (original releases) tracked in garaph: 104k
Average sales of N1 SRPGs (portable rereleases) tracked in garaph: 66k
Average sales of other N1 games tracked in garaph: 17k
.

Bebpo said:
They skipped 2009, but 2010 has TWO, One in a few weeks with Zettai Hero on PSP and then Disgaea 4 later in the year on PS3.
Click to expand...
Good.
 
C

cvxfreak

Member
As I suspected last week, Alternative Edition put in pretty damn good numbers, and above Darkside Chronicles. Before last week, I had expected the opposite to happen, but knew what was up after seeing the promotions.

Capcom expects to sell around 300K copies of Alternative Edition on PS3 until the end of March, so they're well on their way.
 
K

Kurosaki Ichigo

Member
xx. [NGC] Resident Evil 4 - 145,533
01. [PS3] Resident Evil 5: Alternative Edition (Capcom) - 140,100/140,100/87%
So close lol. Quite the sell-through too.

06. [PS3] Heavy Rain (SCE) - 26,000/26,000/74%
Its still niche territory, but getting usual to see new western games doing good. SCE pricing seems to help too.

07. [NDS] Yugioh World Championship 2010 (Konami) - 24,500/24,500/49%
2009 - 36,491
Bit down, latest PSP one was also bit down from year before. Fatigue I guess.

13. [PS3] Dante's Inferno - 10,200 / 55%
17. [PS3] Shin Sangoku Musou Online: Kamishou Ranbu - 8,100 / 90%
19. [PSP] Classic Dungeon: Fuyoku no Masoujin - 7,400 / 76%
25. [PSP] Hyakumanton no Bara Bara - 6,600 24%
watwatwat, Dante's Inferno above Musou Online above Classic Dungeon above BaraBara? Ugh

Nipponichi PSP affairs outside safe Disgaea ports are really biting them. Sad to see, and its not like overseas will help at all.
Fairly disappointed in BaraBara too, with crappy sell through to boot. SCEJ just can't take a break, its kind of brutal how low they went. 12 million sellers by their account on their first system ever, repeating myself.
 
C

cvxfreak

Member
I think Biohazard 5 can make it to 1 Million in Japan when you combine versions.

Using Famitsu:

[PS3] Biohazard 5 - 509,000
[PS3] Biohazard 5 Alternative Edition - 140,100
[360] Biohazard 5 - 123,800
[360] Biohazard 5 Platinum Collection - 500

Total: 773,000

Alternative Edition shall continue to sell, and then Capcom will issue a PS3 budget version. I think within two years, Biohazard 5 can be close to a million units if not beyond it. It'll certainly get there when the inevitable Wii and iPhone versions hit! :lol
 
J

JoshuaJSlone

Member
cvxfreak said:
I think Biohazard 5 can make it to 1 Million in Japan when you combine versions.

Using Famitsu:

[PS3] Biohazard 5 - 509,000
[PS3] Biohazard 5 Alternative Edition - 140,100
[360] Biohazard 5 - 123,800
[360] Biohazard 5 Platinum Collection - 500

Total: 773,000

Alternative Edition shall continue to sell, and then Capcom will issue a PS3 budget version. I think within two years, Biohazard 5 can be close to a million units if not beyond it. It'll certainly get there when the inevitable Wii and iPhone versions hit! :lol
Click to expand...
I don't have any far-off predictions, but with the new RE5 coming in I looked at how it was comparing to RE4. Obviously the PS360 version was outdoing the GameCube one, but this far out the PS2 release would come into play. Well, looks like RE4 doesn't have a chance to catch up before Alternative gives RE5 a clear lead again:
RE5
 
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