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[nodish2]

What is the 'golden week'? Can anyone explain?

I think it's a week long national holiday.

 

[ksamedi]

Heavy Rain has been charting pretty high in the amazon charts as well. I think it could do some surprising numbers.

 

[dolemite]

What's inside the square "Heavy Rain" boxes?

 

[The_lascar]

What is the 'golden week'? Can anyone explain?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_Week_(Japan)

Most important period after december/new year, with the O-bon week.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Considering nothing is probably going to top 50k, I kinda wonder if there's any point doing one at all :/

The fun next week is that there are a good handful (10-12) titles that could do 20-50k any other week, but being released all together, its 'find out which will bomb more!".

 

[thestopsign]

What is the 'golden week'? Can anyone explain?

It's Easter in Japan.

 

[donny2112]

Edit: Beaten

 

[Chris1964]

Anymore suggestions anyone? Wondering if going with a 4vs4 DS-PSP clash taking out Espgaluda for BlazBlue, or going with 9, or 10 including Borderlands or Kiniro 3. Retailers not helping much, most titles aren't on comgnet top20, in amazon the highest one is Demon Souls re-release...

If we are going to predict go with these 4DS+4PSP games. After all for most of them we are gona shoot to luck for first week sales. We must fing which game will bomb less from the others because I doubt there will be even one that won't underperform.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Prediction League 02/22-02/28
- Given the amount of games and basic sales ranges, we have to use Famitsu Top50 leak or late Famitsu Top30 (in case the first doesn't happen) since MC Top10 or Dengeki Top20 could be insufficient
- Predict up to next Wednesday when we get the first info for last week numbers (approx 72h from the time of this post)

Prediction Set:
[NDS] Super Robot Wars OG: Saga Endless Frontier Exceed (Namco Bandai) -
[NDS] Shiren the Wanderer 4: Kami no Hitomi to Akuma no Heso (Spike) -
[NDS] Estpolis: The Lands Cursed by the Gods (Square Enix) -
[NDS] Higurashi no Nakukoru ni Kizuna: 4th Chapter - Kizuna (Alchemist) -
[PSP] Hot Shots Tennis Portable (SCE) -
[PSP] Kenka Bancho 4: Ichinen Sensou (Spike) -
[PSP] BlazBlue Portable (Arc System Works) -
[PSP] Power Pro Success Legends (Konami) -

Get ready to shoot in the dark

 

[BishopLamont]

[NDS] Super Robot Wars OG: Saga Endless Frontier Exceed (Namco Bandai) - 80k
[NDS] Shiren the Wanderer 4: Kami no Hitomi to Akuma no Heso (Spike) - 75k
[NDS] Estpolis: The Lands Cursed by the Gods (Square Enix) - 50k
[NDS] Higurashi no Nakukoru ni Kizuna: 4th Chapter - Kizuna (Alchemist) - 25k
[PSP] Hot Shots Tennis Portable (SCE) - 70k
[PSP] Kenka Bancho 4: Ichinen Sensou (Spike) - 60k
[PSP] BlazBlue Portable (Arc System Works) - 40k
[PSP] Power Pro Success Legends (Konami) 100k

 

[onken]

Hmm very well

Prediction Set:
[NDS] Super Robot Wars OG: Saga Endless Frontier Exceed (Namco Bandai) - 20k
[NDS] Shiren the Wanderer 4: Kami no Hitomi to Akuma no Heso (Spike) - 25k
[NDS] Estpolis: The Lands Cursed by the Gods (Square Enix) - 40k
[NDS] Higurashi no Nakukoru ni Kizuna: 4th Chapter - Kizuna (Alchemist) - 23k
[PSP] Hot Shots Tennis Portable (SCE) - 60k
[PSP] Kenka Bancho 4: Ichinen Sensou (Spike) - 45k
[PSP] BlazBlue Portable (Arc System Works) - 20k
[PSP] Power Pro Success Legends (Konami) - 50k

 

[Spiegel]

[NDS] Super Robot Wars OG: Saga Endless Frontier Exceed (Namco Bandai) - 65k
[NDS] Shiren the Wanderer 4: Kami no Hitomi to Akuma no Heso (Spike) - 30k
[NDS] Estpolis: The Lands Cursed by the Gods (Square Enix) - 25k
[NDS] Higurashi no Nakukoru ni Kizuna: 4th Chapter - Kizuna (Alchemist) - 15k
[PSP] Hot Shots Tennis Portable (SCE) - 45k
[PSP] Kenka Bancho 4: Ichinen Sensou (Spike) - 55k
[PSP] BlazBlue Portable (Arc System Works) - 20k
[PSP] Power Pro Success Legends (Konami) - 20k

 

[hsukardi]

Can anybody tell me what the sticker means?

 

[onken]

Can anybody tell me what the sticker means?

Looks like "kanbai" to me - sold out. I wonder how much they shipped.

 

[ULTROS!]

Oh, I just found out that Japan got Heavy Rain first (few days ago).

Interesting that the bundle and the game was sold out. Is this good sign for a non-Japanese game?

 

[Cosmonaut X]

Oh, I just found out that Japan got Heavy Rain first (few days ago).

Interesting that the bundle and the game was sold out. Is this good sign for a non-Japanese game?

Depends on initial shipments and whether this is widespread or not, I suppose.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

A sold out notice sitting on a stack of copies?

 

[mugurumakensei]

A sold out notice sitting on a stack of copies?

With another stack right behind it!

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

A sold out notice sitting on a stack of copies?

Display cases. They're out in the open in Akihabara, so obviously they couldn't put real games out or all the dirty barbarian foreigners would steal them.

Interestingly at that same shop they're selling FFXIII new for 3500 yen, and at a few shops around Akiba, Strange Journey seems to be back in stock (another shipment maybe?).

 

[mugurumakensei]

Display cases. They're out in the open in Akihabara, so obviously they couldn't put real games out or all the dirty barbarian foreigners would steal them.

Interestingly at that same shop they're selling FFXIII new for 3500 yen, and at a few shops around Akiba, Strange Journey seems to be back in stock (another shipment maybe?).

Can't tell if serious for the first part(The display case thing is common in the U.S. so that might be serious, but the dirty barbarian foreigner makes me think joking.).... Why shrink wrap and stack display cases at different heights, and why multiple cases in the first place?

 

[ULTROS!]

Can't tell if serious for the first part(The display case thing is common in the U.S. so that might be serious, but the dirty barbarian foreigner makes me think joking.).... Why shrink wrap and stack display cases at different heights, and why multiple cases in the first place?

I'm guessing... Get a case, show it to the store clerk, then they'll put the CD in when you purchase it?

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

Can't tell if serious for the first part(The display case thing is common in the U.S. so that might be serious, but the dirty barbarian foreigner makes me think joking.).... Why shrink wrap and stack display cases at different heights, and why multiple cases in the first place?

The ones I saw at the little shop weren't shrink-wrapped (can't tell if the ones in the photo are or not), but they do indeed stack up piles of display cases like that, and if they're uneven, it's because someone has probably brought a case or two up to the register to buy it and they haven't replaced it yet.

I kind of did a double-take when I saw the Heavy Rain cases there, because I too had no idea it was out so soon.

To Ultros: They don't do that goofy Gamestop crap here. You bring a display case, they grab you a sealed one, then they put the display case back when they have time.

 

[mugurumakensei]

Well, it does say "kanbai shimashita", so I'll have to take your word for it Segata Sanshiro.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

Well, it does say "kanbai shimashita", so I'll have to take your word for it Segata Sanshiro.

Trust me, I'd be the last guy to try to do positive spin for that shitbrick Heavy Rain.

 

[mugurumakensei]

Trust me, I'd be the last guy to try to do positive spin for that shitbrick Heavy Rain.

lol, have you seen any sold out stickers at other stores?

 

[ULTROS!]

To Ultros: They don't do that goofy Gamestop crap here. You bring a display case, they grab you a sealed one, then they put the display case back when they have time.

Never knew Gamestop did that (I don't like in the US). :lol

And it's also sort of... Unsanitary for some reason. :/

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

lol, have you seen any sold out stickers at other stores?

I didn't hit many "new game" shops today because I was on a Famicom mission, so the only places I saw the "sold out" Heavy Rains were two Messe Sanoh stores, one right by the station, one on the main drag between the two skeevy PC game shops.

I didn't stop in at Sofmap's big store today, so no updates on the bomba bin.

 

[Jonnyram]

Heavy Rain has been charting pretty high in the amazon charts as well. I think it could do some surprising numbers.

It's selling out because it's been woefully undershipped. In saying that, I mean retailer orders were pretty low - it's an adventure game, new IP, and a mature title; would you risk buying in a shitload of copies?

 

[stilgar]

I was on a Famicom mission

 

[onken]

It's selling out because it's been woefully undershipped. In saying that, I mean retailer orders were pretty low - it's an adventure game, new IP, and a mature title; would you risk buying in a shitload of copies?

This indeed sounds like the likely scenario.

 

[hsukardi]

It's selling out because it's been woefully undershipped. In saying that, I mean retailer orders were pretty low - it's an adventure game, new IP, and a mature title; would you risk buying in a shitload of copies?

It's woefully undershipped because it's selling out. It's a meaning by definition.

Not all XXX YYY are undershipped just because they're niche -- they are shipped proportionately and don't sell out. Things sell out i.e. are undershipped when they do better than expectations.

 

[onken]

It's woefully undershipped because it's selling out. It's a meaning by definition.

Not all XXX YYY are undershipped just because they're niche -- they are shipped proportionately and don't sell out. Things sell out i.e. are undershipped when they do better than expectations.

Yeah, the expectations of retailers who often get it wrong. Doesn't make it a success for the publisher.

 

[Pureauthor]

It's woefully undershipped because it's selling out. It's a meaning by definition.

Not really - if 101K people want a game and 100K copies get shipped, it'll be considered sold out, but few would consider it 'undershipped', and ever fewer 'woefully' so.

 

[mugurumakensei]

Thank you Segata Sanshiro

On the topic of undershipping: I think it's more difficult for retailers to gauge how many copies of a western title to stock.It's better to play it safe and leave extra stock to a minimum.

 

[spwolf]

its ok, take it easy guys, no need for meltdowns... i am sure they shipped like 20k... even then, quite suprising for western game to sell out regardless. Japanese like their crazy control schemes, it might be some kind of fetish. Press R2, Press R2...aaahhhh. :lol

 

[mugurumakensei]

its ok, take it easy guys, no need for meltdowns... i am sure they shipped like 20k... even then, quite suprising for western game to sell out regardless. Japanese like their crazy control schemes, it might be some kind of fetish. Press R2, Press R2...aaahhhh. :lol

It's the birthplace of the QTE afterall... (Shenmue ;_

 

[Aru]

[NDS] Super Robot Wars OG: Saga Endless Frontier Exceed (Namco Bandai) - 70k
[NDS] Shiren the Wanderer 4: Kami no Hitomi to Akuma no Heso (Spike) - 20k
[NDS] Estpolis: The Lands Cursed by the Gods (Square Enix) - 30k
[NDS] Higurashi no Nakukoru ni Kizuna: 4th Chapter - Kizuna (Alchemist) - 5k
[PSP] Hot Shots Tennis Portable (SCE) - 35k
[PSP] Kenka Bancho 4: Ichinen Sensou (Spike) - 25k
[PSP] BlazBlue Portable (Arc System Works) - 30k
[PSP] Power Pro Success Legends (Konami) - 100k

 

[Spiegel]

Power Pro Success Legends is going to kill many predictions.

It's not a real Power Pro and it's priced as a budget game (3990Y).

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

You guys would be surprised by how many games sell out in Akiba shops in the first few days, actually. Especially Western games. Just that people don't really take pictures of them.

 

[spwolf]

You guys would be surprised by how many games sell out in Akiba shops in the first few days, actually. Especially Western games. Just that people don't really take pictures of them.

it will be interesint to see the first week numbers... 20k-30k?

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

it will be interesint to see the first week numbers... 20k-30k?

Seems reasonable. I can't imagine retailers went hogwild on ordering it, but I doubt they ordered a terribly small quantity, either. Probably closer to 20k than 30k though.

 

[Hypereides]

It's selling out because it's been woefully undershipped. In saying that, I mean retailer orders were pretty low - it's an adventure game, new IP, and a mature title; would you risk buying in a shitload of copies?

I have the same intuition. My gut feeling tells me it will top 50k, max. If it goes above I will be pleasently surprised.

 

[wrowa]

Predictions:

[NDS] Super Robot Wars OG: Saga Endless Frontier Exceed (Namco Bandai) - 75k
[NDS] Shiren the Wanderer 4: Kami no Hitomi to Akuma no Heso (Spike) - 75k
[NDS] Estpolis: The Lands Cursed by the Gods (Square Enix) - 45k
[NDS] Higurashi no Nakukoru ni Kizuna: 4th Chapter - Kizuna (Alchemist) - 17k
[PSP] Hot Shots Tennis Portable (SCE) - 45k
[PSP] Kenka Bancho 4: Ichinen Sensou (Spike) - 50k
[PSP] BlazBlue Portable (Arc System Works) - 15k
[PSP] Power Pro Success Legends (Konami) - 25k



So many people here are expecting Shiren 4 to mega bomb.

 

[mugurumakensei]

So many people here are expecting Shiren 4 to mega bomb.

It's called the Published by Spike Effect(TM)

 

[Stumpokapow]

Predictions:
[NDS] Shiren the Wanderer 4: Kami no Hitomi to Akuma no Heso (Spike) - 75k
So many people here are expecting Shiren 4 to mega bomb.

In order from least recent release to most recent release:

Shiren DS (Sega) - 79k week one
Shiren 3 (Sega) - 58k week one
Shiren DS 2 (Sega) - 47k week one
Shiren 3 PSP (Spike) - 14k week one

...

 

[u_neek]

Any Heavy Rain/Biohazard predictions?

 

[Orgen]

[NDS] Super Robot Wars OG: Saga Endless Frontier Exceed (Namco Bandai) - 80k
[NDS] Shiren the Wanderer 4: Kami no Hitomi to Akuma no Heso (Spike) - 55k
[NDS] Estpolis: The Lands Cursed by the Gods (Square Enix) - 65k
[NDS] Higurashi no Nakukoru ni Kizuna: 4th Chapter - Kizuna (Alchemist) - 15k
[PSP] Hot Shots Tennis Portable (SCE) - 75k
[PSP] Kenka Bancho 4: Ichinen Sensou (Spike) - 45k
[PSP] BlazBlue Portable (Arc System Works) - 20k
[PSP] Power Pro Success Legends (Konami) - 60k

Yes, overestimation ahoy!

 

[wrowa]

In order from least recent release to most recent release:

Shiren DS (Sega) - 79k week one
Shiren 3 (Sega) - 58k week one
Shiren DS 2 (Sega) - 47k week one
Shiren 3 PSP (Spike) - 14k week one

...

My bad, I confused the LTD sales of the previous games with the first week sales.

 

[BishopLamont]

Power Pro Success Legends is going to kill many predictions.

It's not a real Power Pro and it's priced as a budget game (3990Y).

Thanks for that, I was wondering what to compare this game to. Looks like I'm overestimating many games, I can change my prediction right, just for this game? :lol

 

[Nirolak]

Apparently the president of Nippon Ichi has resigned: http://www.joystiq.com/2010/02/21/nippon-ichi-president-resigning-at-the-end-of-march/

Usually I only see this happen when people aren't especially positive in their ability to turn things around that quickly.