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[Agent Icebeezy]

I dunno. One game can't really decide the rule, I think.



What does it matter if MS is not viable in Japan? I agree with you that Sony would be more likely to do so, though.

As for 360 gamers going back to PCs. Well, yeah obviously you could do that, but what if they want to try and take the path that Nintendo is taking, and sacrifice potential hardcore losses to gain more casuals? (Yes, yes we're still getting Marios, Zeldas and SSBs, but Nintendo's trying harder to get everyone else, though)

The Japanese developers are the one that made the DS what it is and will likely do the same for the Wii. What does Microsoft have to gain by catering to their weakest market? They won't stop their pursuit of technology. To quote someone, it's not in their DNA. I consider myself a prime example of Microsoft's target market. Once they stop doing things that has gotten them this far, I'd seriously say, what the ****!? The Wii fits Nintendo perfectly. Different platforms for different companies with different goals.

 

[jarrod]

To be fair, has there been a single PS3 title released yet aimed at the Japan consumer?

You mean besides Ridge Racer, Genji, Armored Core, Gundam, Sega Golf and Mahjong Fight Club?

I see Armored Core brought up a lot but it's not a huge series in Japan. With an installed base of around 20 million systems, this is how that last one sold first week on PS2:

When comparing to AC4, we should probably look back to the full sequels rather than the expansions. AC2 and AC3 both sold ~230k on PS2, so why has AC4 stalled at ~69k on PS3?

 

[soundwave05]

VF5 and Gundam should give the PS3 reasonable boosts though. I think they might be able to outsell the Wii for the weeks those two games launch and settle in more in the 35k/week range in between.

 

[Oblivion]

The Japanese developers are the one that made the DS what it is and will likely do the same for the Wii. What does Microsoft have to gain by catering to their weakest market? They won't stop their pursuit of technology. To quote someone, it's not in their DNA. I consider myself a prime example of Microsoft's target market. Once they stop doing things that has gotten them this far, I'd seriously say, what the ****!? The Wii fits Nintendo perfectly. Different platforms for different companies with different goals.

See, the thing is you're assuming everyone else other than Japan won't stand for last gen. tech. Who's to say? What if Wii takes off in the U.S. and Europe as well? MS (and any other company, obviously) would want a piece of that pie too.

 

[farnham]

VF5 and Gundam should give the PS3 reasonable boosts though. I think they might be able to outsell the Wii for the weeks those two games launch and settle in more in the 35k/week range in between.

hmm i think fire emblem, naruto and harvest moon (not big in japan i know) are comming out by that time..

 

[soundwave05]

hmm i think fire emblem, naruto and harvest moon (not big in japan i know) are comming out by that time..

I was saying the PS3 might be able to outsell the Wii for those specific weeks (VF5 release and Gundam release). Probably not overall though. Nintendo will probably reload a lot around Easter time with newer releases, that's where Sony could really get hurt.

 

[Bebpo]

When comparing to AC4, we should probably look back to the full sequels rather than the expansions. AC2 and AC3 both sold ~230k on PS2, so why has AC4 stalled at ~69k on PS3?

Those were also years ago when the series was popular. The reasons the expansions sold less and less was the series popularity was dwindling. Why should we expect a new AC on PS3 to sell the same as 3-4 years ago when the series was popular?

I guess we should be comparing New Super Mario Bros to SMB3 since time and market conditions obviously don't matter in your reasoning. Why has NSMB sold less than half of SMB3? Is it because the DS is a failure? Would NSMB have sold better on another system?

You mean besides Ridge Racer, Genji, Armored Core, Gundam, Sega Golf and Mahjong Fight Club?

I think he means Japanese games that are GOOD GAMES for the Japanese audience. While some people might buy 2/10 Gundam if they own the PS3 already, no one is going to buy a $600 system for a 2/10 game and Ridge has been whored to hell at this point following the PSP one.

I've said it earlier in this thread and I'll say it again.

PS3 sales will not stablize until Nov/Dec. To have stable sales you need a good Japanese game for Japanese audiences coming out every other week. Wait until DMC4, MGS4, the fall PS3 rpgs, racing games, etc... come out. VF5 will cause a short spike, as will Gundam Musou, but PS3 won't have consistant sales until December most likely.

 

[cvxfreak]

Those were also years ago when the series was popular. The reasons the expansions sold less and less was the series popularity was dwindling. Why should we expect a new AC on PS3 to sell the same as 3-4 years ago when the series was popular?

I guess we should be comparing New Super Mario Bros to SMB3 since time and market conditions obviously don't matter in your reasoning. Why has NSMB sold less than half of SMB3? Is it because the DS is a failure? Would NSMB have sold better on another system?

Err, as far as Japan is concerned, NSMB > SMB3.

 

[Avalon]

PS3 sales will not stablize until Nov/Dec. To have stable sales you need a good Japanese game for Japanese audiences coming out every other week. Wait until DMC4, MGS4, the fall PS3 rpgs, racing games, etc... come out. VF5 will cause a short spike, as will Gundam Musou, but PS3 won't have consistant sales until December most likely.

You don't think the current trend might scare developers away?

 

[NintendosBooger]

Those were also years ago when the series was popular. The reasons the expansions sold less and less was the series popularity was dwindling. Why should we expect a new AC on PS3 to sell the same as 3-4 years ago when the series was popular?

I guess we should be comparing New Super Mario Bros to SMB3 since time and market conditions obviously don't matter in your reasoning. Why has NSMB sold less than half of SMB3? Is it because the DS is a failure? Would NSMB have sold better on another system?



I think he means Japanese games that are GOOD GAMES for the Japanese audience. While some people might buy 2/10 Gundam if they own the PS3 already, no one is going to buy a $600 system for a 2/10 game and Ridge has been whored to hell at this point following the PSP one.

I've said it earlier in this thread and I'll say it again.

PS3 sales will not stablize until Nov/Dec. To have stable sales you need a good Japanese game for Japanese audiences coming out every other week. Wait until DMC4, MGS4, the fall PS3 rpgs, racing games, etc... come out. VF5 will cause a short spike, as will Gundam Musou, but PS3 won't have consistant sales until December most likely.

Ah, the "wait until the next holiday season" defense...

 

[puck1337]

VF5 and Gundam should give the PS3 reasonable boosts though. I think they might be able to outsell the Wii for the weeks those two games launch and settle in more in the 35k/week range in between.

VF5 will boost PS3 above 100k for the week. VF is consistently a huge seller and the only way VF5 won't be is if it's a total dog.

 

[Bebpo]

You don't think the current trend might scare developers away?

It definitely will.

Ah, the "wait until the next holiday season" defense...

Not really. The Wii will still be outselling it next season, but are you going to tell me right that with DMC4, MGS4, exclusive RPGS/racing games/action games/etc... the PS3 will only be selling 20-25k each week in November/December? It's common logic that when the games are OUT the sales will get better. Not to Wii levels, but I'd guess PS3 would stabilize at 50-60k per week in 2008+, especially if there's a price drop.

 

[RaijinFY]

VF5 will boost PS3 above 100k for the week.

lawl...

 

[Avalon]

It definitely will.

How will sales stabilize then? They will gain a significant boost during the holidays, but after that with nothing, new... what then?

 

[Bebpo]

How will sales stabilize then? They will gain a significant boost during the holidays, but after that with nothing, new... what then?

Because like you said, developers who jump ship in 2007 when the PS3 has poor sales, will go back in 2008 if the sales pick up and it gains a good install base.

Don't forget that during 2007 it'll still be selling in the US and possibly Europe. So the worldwide LTD will keep moving and most Japanese console games do sell in the West for extra profit.

 

[meltpotato]

Because like you said, developers who jump ship in 2007 when the PS3 has poor sales, will go back in 2008 if the sales pick up and it gains a good install base.

Don't forget that during 2007 it'll still be selling in the US and possibly Europe. So the worldwide LTD will keep moving and most Japanese console games do sell in the West for extra profit.

i actually dont think there will be much "jumping ship", just more spreading the wealth to 360 (see: hedging your bets)

 

[farnham]

It definitely will.



Not really. The Wii will still be outselling it next season, but are you going to tell me right that with DMC4, MGS4, exclusive RPGS/racing games/action games/etc... the PS3 will only be selling 20-25k each week in November/December? It's common logic that when the games are OUT the sales will get better. Not to Wii levels, but I'd guess PS3 would stabilize at 50-60k per week in 2008+, especially if there's a price drop.

but the gamecube in the year 2002 had

zelda, resident evil 0, mario party 4 , mario sunshine, starfox adventures in japan

arguably a much better selling lineup

the sales didnt pick up and the sales were for the games were horrible

and i doubt the holiday 2007 lineup for the wii will be bad... nintendos biggest selling season is christmas and they know that..

probably they will pull out touch generation type games till september and then they will release their big guns in japan.. and there will be unannounced titles for the wii from Nintendo..

 

[KTallguy]

VF5 will boost PS3 above 100k for the week. VF is consistently a huge seller and the only way VF5 won't be is if it's a total dog.

VF5 is available in arcades everywhere in Japan. I wouldn't expect it to do amazingly there.

 

[farnham]

between VF 5 and Naruto EX.. im willing to bet that Naruto EX will actually sell better in japan..

the GC versions all sold over 300k on a much smaller installbase then the PS2

VF 4 sold like 500k and VF 4 evolution did even less

 

[ivysaur12]

Because like you said, developers who jump ship in 2007 when the PS3 has poor sales, will go back in 2008 if the sales pick up and it gains a good install base.

Don't forget that during 2007 it'll still be selling in the US and possibly Europe. So the worldwide LTD will keep moving and most Japanese console games do sell in the West for extra profit.

I think that's wishful thinking at best. I mean, look at the Gamecube. 2002 had Metroid Prime, Mario, and StarFox (with Zelda in early 2003). Did any developers go back and start making more Gamecube software? I'll take more than a few good games at the end of 2007 to really get developer interest back into the PS3, but this initial slump for the PS3 is probably already scaring developers off from putting those games on in the first place.

 

[Amir0x]

I think that's wishful thinking at best. I mean, look at the Gamecube. 2002 had Metroid Prime, Mario, and StarFox (with Zelda in early 2003). Did any developers go back and start making more Gamecube software? I'll take more than a few good games at the end of 2007 to really get developer interest back into the PS3, but this initial slump for the PS3 is probably already scaring developers off from putting those games on in the first place.

Not to back up Bebpo, but there's a silly aspect to your point.

Bebpo's argument relies on PS3 rebounding a tad in hardware sales... which Gamecube never did, so of course developers never jumped back on board.

And secondly, and this is the big one, those games were all first-party titles. Why the **** would third party devs jump on board because first party titles are doing well? :lol

 

[sphinx]

some guys here just don't get it:

a console war is always TIME CONSTRAINED. No contender can just wait til holidays or some far away date to BEGIN (!) the process of attracting consumers.

There is no way to spin the fact that Sony has done very bad in not having new games for PS3 in japan. It doesn't have to be MGS4 or FFXIII, but there are wonderful decent games that could help the PS3 instead of going to the old PS2.

Of the 100% of games that launch on PS2 worldwide each month, why not put 20% or 30%of them on the PS3??

By the time MGS4 arrives in japan, it might be too late. Momentum has to be build little by little. You don't suddenly change tides because a great game arrives a year later. Ask the gamecube, a system that wait a year to launch its killer app, METROID PRIME ( for most reviewers the best game of last gen ) in the US. It was already too late.

 

[farnham]

Not to back up Bebpo, but there's a silly aspect to your point.

Bebpo's argument relies on PS3 rebounding a tad in hardware sales... which Gamecube never did, so of course developers never jumped back on board.

And secondly, and this is the big one, those games were all first-party titles. Why the **** would third party devs jump on board because first party titles are doing well? :lol

at least RE 0 and Super Monkey ball 2 sold very well in 2002

 

[Bebpo]

I think that's wishful thinking at best. I mean, look at the Gamecube. 2002 had Metroid Prime, Mario, and StarFox (with Zelda in early 2003). Did any developers go back and start making more Gamecube software? I'll take more than a few good games at the end of 2007 to really get developer interest back into the PS3, but this initial slump for the PS3 is probably already scaring developers off from putting those games on in the first place.

So what's the other alternative that you suggest? The PS3 is completely dead already and it has no chance to ever come back from selling 25k a week and Sony and MS should just leave Japan for 5 years and try again? Sorry, but I think that's wishful thinking by certain groups to believe that the first year of a 5-8 year battle is going to ultimately decide everything and those not in the lead by xmas 2007 should just retire since they will never get developer support.

 

[farnham]

So what's the other alternative that you suggest? The PS3 is completely dead already and it has no chance to ever come back from selling 25k a week and Sony and MS should just leave Japan for 5 years and try again? Sorry, but I think that's wishful thinking by certain groups to believe that the first year of a 5-8 year battle is going to ultimately decide everything and those not in the lead by xmas 2007 should just retire and get no developer support.

yes the PS3 will pick up in sales after september.. and maybe a little bit in march..

but thats completely normal in the video game world.. unless you utterly fail.. then you sell less then 10000 a week

 

[sphinx]

And secondly, and this is the big one, those games were all first-party titles. Why the **** would third party devs jump on board because first party titles are doing well? :lol

you missed his point.

I think he means that having a terrific game (metroid prime for example) doesn't change the perception of the consumer about the console it is put on. It has nothing to do with 1st or 3d party thing.

 

[Amir0x]

you missed his point.

I think he means that having a terrific game (metroid prime for example) doesn't change the perception of the consumer about the console it is put on. It has nothing to do with 1st or 3d party thing.

I don't think that was his point but thanks for inserting. And even if it suddenly becomes his point, it doesn't really change anything that was said.

Honestly I think the only point you're trying to make is how awesome Metroid Prime was

 

[ivysaur12]

So what's the other alternative that you suggest? The PS3 is completely dead already and it has no chance to ever come back from selling 25k a week and Sony and MS should just leave Japan for 5 years and try again? Sorry, but I think that's wishful thinking by certain groups to believe that the first year of a 5-8 year battle is going to ultimately decide everything and those not in the lead by xmas 2007 should just retire since they will never get developer support.

I said nothing of the sort. Sony needs to set releases in Q1/Q2 (or by the very latest Q2) that can ride of the success of the winter 2007 titles. Even budget games based on popular animes will work. But it's not like these games are going to be developed overnight. It's really silly to think that developers are just going to put their titles back on the PS3 if there's one holiday spike and sales with nothing to follow up afterwards.

And MS might as well leave Japan, come back, and try again.

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

you missed his point.

I think he means that having a terrific game (metroid prime for example) doesn't change the perception of the consumer about the console it is put on. It has nothing to do with 1st or 3d party thing.

Metroid Prime is not a terrific game even for my sister that is 14 years old.

 

[ivysaur12]

I don't think that was his point but thanks for inserting. And even if it suddenly becomes his point, it doesn't really change anything that was said.

Honestly I think the only point you're trying to make is how awesome Metroid Prime was

All I meant was that a small spike in sales doesn't necessarily constitute follow-up developer support.

 

[farnham]

newest rumor in

Gundam Mousou to be pushed back to march 31st

http://ruliweb.empas.com/ruliboard/...&find=subject&ftext=%B0%C7%B4%E3&left=&time=0

could be a typo though

 

[Amir0x]

All I meant was that a small spike in sales doesn't necessarily constitute follow-up developer support.

right, but he was saying if PS3 spiked to 60-80k a week on a consistent basis. Which is much more than a small spike

 

[ivysaur12]

right, but he was saying if PS3 spiked to 60-80k a week on a consistent basis. Which is much more than a small spike

Only if there is strong Q1 and Q2 software. Or else, that's not going to happen.

 

[farnham]

right, but he was saying if PS3 spiked to 60-80k a week on a consistent basis. Which is much more than a small spike

do you think it will happen..?

a consistent 60 to 80k per week is the consistent sales of playstation 2 in its very early and late 2005 stage ..

 

[Amir0x]

who is arguing that it's going to happen! I'm only telling you what Bebpo's hypothetical scenario actually said! :lol

 

[Bebpo]

I said nothing of the sort. Sony needs to set releases in Q1/Q2 (or by the very latest Q2) that can ride of the success of the winter 2007 titles. Even budget games based on popular animes will work. But it's not like these games are going to be developed overnight. It's really silly to think that developers are just going to put their titles back on the PS3 if there's one holiday spike and sales with nothing to follow up afterwards.

And MS might as well leave Japan, come back, and try again.

Well, FFXIII is going to follow the winter stuff in March probably, so that should help them ride out the winter spike into the summer. I dunno, if they can hold PS3 at solid sales 40-60k for the entire year of 2008, I think it'd be enough to convince developers "phew, ok our games will do decent on the PS3" and get them back on board.

Though I think it's worth noting, that no one working on the PS3 has jumped ship and abandoned the PS3 yet. So unless 90% of the teams look at the weekly sales and cancel their current PS3 games instead of just finishing and releasing them, PS3 will have some 3rd party stuff coming out in the 2nd half of 2007 or sometime in 2008.

right, but he was saying if PS3 spiked to 60-80k a week on a consistent basis. Which is much more than a small spike

I'm pretty sure I never said 60-80k, that's way too high for a $600 or even $500 system even with good games. By stable I'm thinking 50k though maybe 40k at worst.

 

[ivysaur12]

who is arguing that it's going to happen! I'm only telling you what Bebpo's hypothetical scenario actually said! :lol

Right, and I'm saying that his hypo...

Oh this is just pathetic. We're arguing about something Bebpo came up with.

 

[cvxfreak]

Ah, it's like the GC days again. People looking for select titles and seasons hoping the second place platform experiences spikes that won't last forever.

 

[Grecco]

Though I think it's worth noting, that no one working on the PS3 has jumped ship and abandoned the PS3 yet.

Didnt EGM report that alot of PS3 Third parties Have jumped ship/delayed till 2008/moved to Xbox 360/multi plataform? Mind you as a rumor.

or was it Gameinformer... I dont know.

 

[farnham]

Ah, it's like the GC days again. People looking for select titles and seasons hoping the second place platform experiences spikes that won't last forever.

oh dont make me remember 2002 Q4 :lol :lol :lol :lol

 

[farnham]

Didnt EGM report that alot of PS3 Third parties Have jumped ship/delayed till 2008/moved to Xbox 360/multi plataform? Mind you as a rumor.

or was it Gameinformer... I dont know.

there are concrete examples. and many of em


traditionally the playstation brothers were heavy anime game platforms

you only see gundam on the PS3 while the Wii suddenly has many many anime games now


DQ 9 jumped ship.. DQ spinoff on Wii and in Q 1 to Q 2 2006..

VF5 on 360, Lostplanet and Deadrising only on 360... etc. etc.

also many rumors like


the reports about EA shifting development forces to the wii
and about Sega moving to wii...

DMC4 on 360


the only good thing in hear is Bioware on PS3

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

some guys here just don't get it:

a console war is always TIME CONSTRAINED. No contender can just wait til holidays or some far away date to BEGIN (!) the process of attracting consumers.

There is no way to spin the fact that Sony has done very bad in not having new games for PS3 in japan. It doesn't have to be MGS4 or FFXIII, but there are wonderful decent games that could help the PS3 instead of going to the old PS2.

Of the 100% of games that launch on PS2 worldwide each month, why not put 20% or 30%of them on the PS3??

By the time MGS4 arrives in japan, it might be too late. Momentum has to be build little by little. You don't suddenly change tides because a great game arrives a year later. Ask the gamecube, a system that wait a year to launch its killer app, METROID PRIME ( for most reviewers the best game of last gen ) in the US. It was already too late.

The Gamecube has faiiled to perform decently not because of a single problem, but it was a combination of many lackuster things: the lack of OnLine, the poor Third Party Support, the kid design and image, the lack of DVD Player, the decline of Second Party Support, the bad reputation, games that perform worse then expected like Super Mario Sunshine, the fact that it was directly comparable to the other machines, the lack of buzz and a decent commercialisation, the difficult change of a big part of the executives of NCl and NOA and more.

A sigle problem taken alone is a problem (more or less big), but not so big. The combination of them has been fatal.

The Wii has born with less negative preconditions, even if some problems remains and this is enough to predict for it a better future then the Gamecube. Then, if we speak about who will win the war, I think that nobody knows and Nintendo doesn0t really care, because if they have done a lot of money with the Gamecube and his pathetic userbase of 21 millions, then the Wii could really be a goldmine for them.

 

[sphinx]

I don't think that was his point but thanks for inserting. And even if it suddenly becomes his point, it doesn't really change anything that was said.

Honestly I think the only point you're trying to make is how awesome Metroid Prime was

No, no!

I am not that obsessed, you can put any strong gamecube game instead of metroid prime and what I was trying to explain still applies.

my point is ( and sorry if I misinterpreted someone else's words )

" you can't wait for the big guns to arrive to change a bad perception people have about a console ".

In the case of the gamecube, It didn't matter if it was a Resident evil or skies of arcadia legends or whatever. Consumers had deliberated: " Gamecube is lame, gamecube is kiddy, gamecube is for losers ".

Right now people are starting to think " PS3 doesn't deliver", "PS3 is too expensive", " PS3 isn't worth it "

will mgs4 or any big game change tha perception?

 

[Bebpo]

People need to get it through their heads that games going multi-platform do not count as a system LOSING games. VF5/DMC4/MGS4/whatever, it's not like these games are going to sell on X360 in JAPAN, so if Japanese gamers want them they're going to buy a PS3.

DQIX was never listed as a PS3 game. I'm saying there were over 100 third party PS3 games in development for the PS3 as of last May, and despite all the doom and gloom of it being the end of days for the PS3 and no more 3rd party games, no developer has gone "that's it! We are scrapping all our PS3 development and porting everything to Wii and only making Wii games!". These games are still going to come out on PS3, so PS3 will still have 3rd party games in 2007/2008 between the big hitters. Even if 25% of them do move their games to Wii, that'd still be 75 games for PS3. It'd take 75% of these games moved to Wii to really put the PS3 in a world of hurt during late 2007 and early 2008.

 

[farnham]

People need to get it through their heads that games going multi-platform do not count as a system LOSING games. VF5/DMC4/MGS4/whatever, it's not like these games are going to sell on X360 in JAPAN, so if Japanese gamers want them they're going to buy a PS3.

Even if VF5, DMC4 and MGS4 are exclusive titles in 2007 in Japan.. its not a good lineup.. even with sony first party stuff.. those franchises have declined greatly in the ps2 era


VF2 sold 1,5 milion copies
VF4 only 500k VF evolution even less
DMC 3 only sold about 300k
MGS 3 didnt break one million copies

The wii already has 2 potential 1 million sellers on the market and the Q4 lineup will contain many of those titles.. especially the so called nongames

DQIX was never listed as a PS3 game. I'm saying there were over 100 third party PS3 games in development for the PS3 as of last May, and despite all the doom and gloom of it being the end of days for the PS3 and no more 3rd party games, no developer has gone "that's it! We are scrapping all our PS3 development and porting everything to Wii and only making Wii games!". These games are still going to come out on PS3, so PS3 will still have 3rd party games in 2007/2008 between the big hitters. Even if 25% of them do move their games to Wii, that'd still be 75 games for PS3. It'd take 75% of these games moved to Wii to really put the PS3 in a world of hurt during late 2007 and early 2008.

yes.. because it was still undetermined who will win the lead at Q4 2006.. many probably speculated on PS3s success .. but it did not happen.. executives might change their plans fast put its not simulateneous to the market situation..

what im implying.. you will see such decissions very soon and very quick.. especially from smaller japanese developers.

 

[KTallguy]

Even if VF5, DMC4 and MGS4 are exclusive titles in 2007 in Japan.. its not a good lineup.. even with sony first party stuff.. those franchises have declined greatly in the ps2 era.

Um, Monster Hunter 3?

Um, Gundam Musou ?

PS3 JP titles are on the way.

 

[Kandinsky]

Didn't see our usual stats posted.

Figures on opening page need to be corrected.

Notrly, you got confused by Famitsu(?) numbers there

 

[farnham]

Um, Monster Hunter 3?

Um, Gundam Musou ?

PS3 JP titles are on the way.

Gundam Musou ... well i think it can do good numbers.. not sure.. recent musou games havent been that big... (especially the sengoku spin offs)


MH3 will sell greatly but it is probably a 2008 title.. no screen shown yet..

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

farnham, I think it's pretty safe to take off the "potential" when talking about Wii sports and play. It would take a miracle for them not to hit a million.

 

[EphemeralDream]

Numbered FFs have always appeared on the top platform in Japan. What do you guys believe is the selling power of FF XIII if PS3 remains at a distant second place (say 33% market share in Japan)?