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[bttb]

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[cvxfreak]

I think the black covers are an excellent idea. It makes them stand out more. Clearly Capcom couldn't alter Darkside Chronicles' cover soon enough so they opted for a sleeve.

 

[Dragona Akehi]

Soo..going back to discussions about Nintendo we have had in the past, a question, given the news from last night-

Are we finally seeing evidence that Nintendo is taking steps to cultivate and develop more of a "core" audience by utilizing internal and external resources toward that goal? Or is the 2010 lineup just a happy coincidence?

Now, I think at this point I think its too late to have any real impact on 3rd party development/sales, so that's not the issue.

I'll be starting the "Bomba Conga" line over here.

 

[Agnates]

Soo..going back to discussions about Nintendo we have had in the past, a question, given the news from last night-

Are we finally seeing evidence that Nintendo is taking steps to cultivate and develop more of a "core" audience by utilizing internal and external resources toward that goal? Or is the 2010 lineup just a happy coincidence?

Now, I think at this point I think its too late to have any real impact on 3rd party development/sales, so that's not the issue.

My 2 cents on that from the other thread...

The announcements aren't any kind of knee jerk reaction to whatever. These projects have clearly been going on for a while, just not unveiled (yeah even before E3 that brought us Metroid and Monado, especially as at least the later was quite far in development by then) as is usual for Nintendo. Ie, all that talk about Nintendo not going to 3rd parties was baseless speculation, as usual. I mean, Nintendo so far seems to have struck deals with some pretty major players. Capcom for Monster Hunter, Square for Dragon Quest, Team Ninja for Metroid, Mistwalker for this title, helping (a bit with the aiming controls only or whatever, but it's something) Ubisoft with Red Steel 2... And smaller ones, like hiring Treasure for Sin&Punishment 2, Sandlot for Reginleiv, Monster Games for the Excite games, Next Level Games for Punch-Out!!, Heastrong Games for Battalion Wars 2... And that's just the Wii front as I'm not familiar with the DS as a platform (I have a PSP ). Surely that shows the opposite attitude than is commonly thought of about Nintendo. They seem quite open to collaborations, or at least, more so than people thought and claimed in such discussions. Maybe developers just don't even care to make proposals, than Nintendo not care to strike deals? Of course, to partner with Nintendo you'll need something much bigger than most 3rd parties' efforts so far... But not that big, given some of the titles I mentioned. It seems it's up to the 3rd parties' unwilligness. Heck, CAPCOM didn't even care to acquire the latest online SDK from Nintendo for TvC's online play to use the internal system friend code/list...

 

[Moor-Angol]

I think Nintendo really need to publish Mario Party 9 for the Golden Week, Xenosaga is not a popular brand for contrasting PS3 line-up...

well, actually they showed many games, but anyone is a big hit honestly... 3D Mario doesn't sell as a 2D Mario, Metroid is ignored in Japan, Xenosaga is probably more popular in western countries, Mistwalker game is a bet (and a brand new IP), Zelda just sold one time more than 1M units.
The impression i had for yesterday is "ok, Nintendo didn't forget the Wii, but all the games showed are not going to move so much hardware"

 

[BowieZ]

I think Nintendo really need to publish Mario Party 9 for the Golden Week, Xenosaga is not a popular brand for contrasting PS3 line-up...

Has it really been that long since MP8? Jeez! (Looks like Nintendo's really been taking the 'fewest-iterations-possible-per-generation' rule seriously!)

But man, the thought of a built-from-the-ground-up Wii Mario Party 9 (should be Mario Party 10/Mario Party X considering the DS game was a fully fledged entity) makes me excited, for some reason... and surely one has to be around the corner? Just ONE Mario game released in 2010 (SMG2)? Not bloody likely.

Or is there another Mario game coming out this year that I've forgotten about?

If they announce and promote it ASAP then they can have it ready for Golden Week with a full 3 months hype/promotion period.

Sigh... one can dream...

 

[legend166]

For reference, here is some market data from Media Create's annual game industry report. (Tose pdf, pg. 13)

Hardware (Value / Units)
2004: 134.9 bln yen / 8.61m
2005: 167.9 bln yen / 9.81m
2006: 265.4 bln yen / 13.67m
2007: 346.5 bln yen / 16.25m

Software (Value / Units)
2004: 335.6 bln yen / 57.93m
2005: 272.0 bln yen / 49.92m
2006: 337.9 bln yen / 68.19m
2007: 337.9 bln yen / 67.53m

Media Create reported a software total of 67.53m for 2007, while Nintendo's graph is showing less than 65m for the same period. Nintendo's graph does not appear to be representing the whole software market.

Shipments vs sales.

 

[schuelma]

well, actually they showed many games, but anyone is a big hit honestly... 3D Mario doesn't sell as a 2D Mario, Metroid is ignored in Japan, Xenosaga is probably more popular in western countries, Mistwalker game is a bet (and a brand new IP), Zelda just sold one time more than 1M units.
The impression i had for yesterday is "ok, Nintendo didn't forget the Wii, but all the games showed are not going to move so much hardware"

I mostly agree with that, but I think some perspective is needed at least in terms of comparing it to the PS3- What PS3 game announced for 2010 will sell as much as Galaxy 2?

 

[Dascu]

I mostly agree with that, but I think some perspective is needed at least in terms of comparing it to the PS3- What PS3 game announced for 2010 will sell as much as Galaxy 2?

GT5?

 

[schuelma]

GT5?

That's possible, but not a sure bet IMO.

 

[kswiston]

I've been a bit out of the loop since becoming a grad student again, but have we officially lost our Friday first day sales leak? I don't think I've seen one in the last few threads.

 

[Sohter.Nura]

I mostly agree with that, but I think some perspective is needed at least in terms of comparing it to the PS3- What PS3 game announced for 2010 will sell as much as Galaxy 2?

I don't think Galaxy 2 will do much for the Wii in Japan either: Let's remember that the first galaxy didn't even break a mil in Japan AFAIK.

 

[donny2112]

No, Nintendo just sends everything that isn't a AAA+++ guaranteed huge hit out to die with no marketing or support of any kind.

So you're saying that third-parties are copying Nintendo.

Let's remember that the first galaxy didn't even break a mil in Japan AFAIK.

Yeah, 964K is pathetic.

 

[jett]

Seems like Mario ended up being the wii's savior.

 

[mello]

I mostly agree with that, but I think some perspective is needed at least in terms of comparing it to the PS3- What PS3 game announced for 2010 will sell as much as Galaxy 2?

Hard to say much outside GT5 selling near or beyond what SMG2 will do, but a more reasonable question should be what PS3 games will encourage higher hardware movement? I really don't see SMG2 increasing hardware sales as much as GT5 would for PS3.

 

[donny2112]

Hard to say much outside GT5 selling near or beyond what SMG2 will do, but a more reasonable question should be what PS3 games will encourage higher hardware movement? I really don't see SMG2 increasing hardware sales as much as GT5 would for PS3.

Yeah, because Nintendo needs constant new releases to keep people interested in hardware sales.

Will GT5 sell as much hardware for PS3 in 2010 as NSMBWii and Wii Fit Plus will sell for Wii in 2010?

 

[gerg]

Yeah, because Nintendo needs constant new releases to keep people interested in hardware sales.



Will GT5 sell as much hardware for PS3 in 2010 as NSMBWii and Wii Fit Plus will?[/QUOTE]

This seems really interesting, but I'm having trouble understanding "Ratio to drive hardware sales", and all the percentages.

I presume the chart represents how much hardware sales have increase (in percentages) since certain game's release?

Anyway, regarding Nintendo's Q1 line-up, I do now agree with those arguing that Nintendo is taking an unnecessary risk with its releases (and that even if its strategy works as best as it could it won't be particularly beneficial for Nintendo) but I really don't see an early SMG 2 as the answer. It wouldn't surprise me if Reginleiv could potentially move more hardware than SMG 2 might.

 

[ksamedi]

Wii Relax will probably be the Wii hardware mover for 2010. New Super Mario Brothers, Wii Fit Plus, Wii Relax and Wiisports Resort could all have a presence in the charts troughout 2010.

 

[Stumpokapow]

I don't think I remember which was the last high (or even low) profile RPG that was published from Nintendo for a home console in Japan. These two with Metroid will be pushed hard from Nintendo this year.

Takt of Magic (rts-rpg) 2009
Super Paper Mario (platformer-rpg) 2007
Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn. 2007
Baten Kaitos Origins 2006
Fire Emblem: GCN. 2005.

*shrugs*

 

[Road]

This seems really interesting, but I'm having trouble understanding "Ratio to drive hardware sales", and all the percentages.

I presume the chart represents how much hardware sales have increase (in percentages) since certain game's release?

http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/library/events/100129/05.html

This is the chart I showed during the Corporate Management Policy Briefing last October. When a purchase of a software is registered with Club Nintendo with the registration of Wii hardware in the same week, we interpret that as the software driving the purchase of the hardware. This chart shows the percentages of the cumulative sales of these software that drove Wii hardware sales as of October of last year.

Why don't we look at the corresponding Club Nintendo data on the subject three key titles in order to see how they are performing today?

Wii Fit Plus, in the middle of this chart, shows particularly high hardware-purchase drive ratios. Ratio of New Super Mario Bros. Wii can be considered good enough as it has not been long since launch.

Considering how the late 2008 launches of such then-anticipated titles such as Wii Music and Animal Crossing Wii were selling a year ago from today, we have to say that these three titles have been able to keep rather healthy sales transitions. Nintendo would like to keep its efforts to maintain their sales momentums in order to keep the momentum of Wii platform and its products.

 

[schuelma]

It wouldn't surprise me if Reginleiv could potentially move more hardware than SMG 2 might.

Whaaaaaat? Reginleiv will be lucky to do 25K its first week. Come on.

 

[gerg]

Whaaaaaat? Reginleiv will be lucky to do 25K its first week. Come on.

Of course I don't actually have grand expectations for Reginleiv.

My point is that in order to attract new customers you need to offer new experiences. In this manner, Reginleiv is an experience completely new to the Wii, whereas SMG2 is a reprise of one that is already present; from this theoretical perspective, Reginleiv is much more valuable to Nintendo than SMG2 (or, at the very least, it should be).

You can probably summarise my logic as "a best-case scenario of Reginleiv would do more for Wii sales than the best-case scenario for SMG2".

 

[ivysaur12]

I think the black covers are an excellent idea. It makes them stand out more. Clearly Capcom couldn't alter Darkside Chronicles' cover soon enough so they opted for a sleeve.

Wow, that looks incredible. So badass.

 

[Road]

For reference, here is some market data from Media Create's annual game industry report. (Tose pdf, pg. 13)

Hardware (Value / Units)
2004: 134.9 bln yen / 8.61m
2005: 167.9 bln yen / 9.81m
2006: 265.4 bln yen / 13.67m
2007: 346.5 bln yen / 16.25m

Software (Value / Units)
2004: 335.6 bln yen / 57.93m
2005: 272.0 bln yen / 49.92m
2006: 337.9 bln yen / 68.19m
2007: 337.9 bln yen / 67.53m

Media Create reported a software total of 67.53m for 2007, while Nintendo's graph is showing less than 65m for the same period. Nintendo's graph does not appear to be representing the whole software market.

Thanks, bttb.

The 2006 and 2007 software totals from MC match the top 500 in GEIMIN, which means the graph Nintendo is showing isn't based on that either. It could be based on the weekly top 50 or something (but it makes no sense seeing how the low-selling titles comprise an even smaller share of the market these days).

Can't be shipped x sold, unless MC is the one reporting shipments every week.

It gets better, though.

From the graph:
2007 - 670 billion
2008 - 560 billion
2009 - 510 billion

From reports:
2007 - 684 billion
2008 - 628 billion
2009 - 571 billion

Since I don't know what type of cherry picking Nintendo is doing on the Japanese market (btw, the hardware units graphs are fine, afaik), I'll just have to file those two together with this one.

 

[Spiegel]

So we can't trust Nintendo's graphs now.

And also now we don't know if the info given in the past years from Nintendo for the western markets is reliable or not.

Great.

 

[Celine]

I never saw Paper Mario as an 100% RPG, at least not the same way I see Super Mario RPG, but maybe this is only my opinion.

Pokemon or Paper Mario/M&L series are different enough to be on their own league.

To me Super Mario RPG always felt as a Squaresoft RPG with Mario characters while Paper Mario/Mario & Luigi games feel more like Nintendoized RPG.

I know you're talking about home console RPGs, but I always thought that Nintendo were going to push the Golden Sun series as their own RPG brand.

I'm not sure if a GC or Wii game was ever planned or why the series disappeared for so long.

There was a Camelot RPG planned for Gamecube but nothing was ever shown.

The two Golden Sun sold really well on GBA and the saga seems to have a good following in America but I think that part of those great sales were favored by the circumstances there were when Nintendo released them.
It will be interesting to follow GS 3 selling performance.

 

[GameplayWhore]

a built-from-the-ground-up Wii Mario Party 9 (should be Mario Party 10/Mario Party X considering the DS game was a fully fledged entity)

I'm thinking they may decide on leveraging the "New" branding (as in "New Super Mario Party"), though if they do that it'd probably be pushed back a bit to avoid confusion between two hot games with too similar names.

 

[gerg]

So we can't trust Nintendo's graphs now.

And also now we don't know if the info given in the past years from Nintendo for the western markets is reliable or not.

Great.

There was a lot of defense for the validity and accuracy of NoA's tracking system when they announced that the Wii had sold over three million units in America in December. Apparently they have a great POS-tracking system.

 

[donny2112]

Just thought I'd mention that an interview with the Hudson guy who was the basis for the Adventure Island character indicated that Hudson shifted to a more "do it because we want to" mentality as opposed to "do it because it makes money" a few years back. As that happens to coincide nicely with the ending of the yearly Mario Party games, that change in motivation could be why the yearly iterations stopped.

 

[Dragona Akehi]

So time for some bold predictions from me: Last Story, Reginleiv, and Xenoblade won't hit 100k ltd combined.

 

[donny2112]

So time for some bold predictions from me: Last Story, Reginleiv, and Xenoblade won't hit 100k ltd combined.

You're basically just predicting that Nintendo's not going to market them, at all. If they do market them pretty well, I don't think that'll be the case.

 

[Dragona Akehi]

You're basically just predicting that Nintendo's not going to market them, at all. If they do market them pretty well, I don't think that'll be the case.

I am assured victory.

 

[Bel Marduk]

So time for some bold predictions from me: Last Story, Reginleiv, and Xenoblade won't hit 100k ltd combined.

Reginleiv won't. TLS and Xenoblade will

 

[gerg]

I am assured victory.

While Nintendo's past history isn't exactly glamorous, it doesn't fit with the new black cases and the demo-rentals.

 

[Somnid]

Has anyone used one of those search guide terminals yet?

 

[Spiegel]

So time for some bold predictions from me: Last Story, Reginleiv, and Xenoblade won't hit 100k ltd combined.

Nah, that's too low.

But I can see them doing <200k combined.

 

[Dragona Akehi]

Nah, that's too low.

But I can see them doing <200k combined.

An unbeliever! May I remind you of what happened the last time? Tales failed.

I'm smelling bombas so big here, that you'd think we were talking about US PSP software sales.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Not that I expect Reginleiv to do this...but before the Sandlot EDF3 did pretty bad on 360, it had done 195,880 with EDF2 on PS2, as a Simple2000 series though.

I'm still wondering myself if Xenoblade will really hit for Golden Week. Vague "spring" probably means april-may-june so I wouldn't call it April a lock. Not an omg-huge hit for GW, but still miles ahead of the current Madden NFL 07 look-a-like.


Oh, and I'm starting to see God Eater doing 300k first week. Not a fan of these multiplayer hunters myself, but would be nice to see a new IP doing that strong (afterall MH-type games hitting big have been well known franchises so far, Musou, Phantasy Star, Gundam...).

 

[Allan Holdsworth]

Reginleiv - 50k
Xenoblade - 100k
Last Story - 150k

 

[jay]

So time for some bold predictions from me: Last Story, Reginleiv, and Xenoblade won't hit 100k ltd combined.

How do ban bets with mods work? I get banned and nothing happens to you?

 

[schuelma]

So time for some bold predictions from me: Last Story, Reginleiv, and Xenoblade won't hit 100k ltd combined.

I feel confident in your failure on this one.

 

[Eteric Rice]

It's really going to depend on Nintendo as to weather these games succeed or not. If Nintendo backs these titles up, they could do well.

Especially if TLS is something "innovative."

 

[Celine]

So time for some bold predictions from me: Last Story, Reginleiv, and Xenoblade won't hit 100k ltd combined.

You Shall Be Judged

It's unlikely that one of those 3 games will do big numbers in Japan but I still think you'll lose the bet.
Mind you I don't think your bet is unreasonable at all ;-)

 

[Dragona Akehi]

How do ban bets with mods work? I get banned and nothing happens to you?

Ban bets are puerile. How about if I'm right you just say "hey, you were right and I was wrong!" and if I'm wrong I'll go "hey look I suck at making predictions, I was wrong!"

Wouldn't that be novel?

I feel confident in your failure on this one.

Tales of Graces, where if I recall you and donny thought it would sell well because of increased foot traffic of NSMBWii?

 

[schuelma]

Not that I expect Reginleiv to do this...but before the Sandlot EDF3 did pretty bad on 360, it had done 195,880 with EDF2 on PS2, as a Simple2000 series though.

I don't think its going to be a hit but I think it will do better than S&P, Takt of Magic..which isn't saying anything of course..but yeah I could see it at least getting 50Kish- I mean, even stuff like Metroid and Battalion Wars got past that.

I'm still wondering myself if Xenoblade will really hit for Golden Week. Vague "spring" probably means april-may-june so I wouldn't call it April a lock. Not an omg-huge hit for GW, but still miles ahead of the current Madden NFL 07 look-a-like.

Mario Party or something more mainstream makes more sense to me, but I've about given up on divining Nintendo's intentions.

Oh, and I'm starting to see God Eater doing 300k first week. Not a fan of these multiplayer hunters myself, but would be nice to see a new IP doing that strong (afterall MH-type games hitting big have been well known franchises so far, Musou, Phantasy Star, Gundam...).

Yeah the preliminary signs are very good. Did anyone from gaf download the demo? I imagine it got a decent reception given the preorder numbers we are seeing.

 

[Eteric Rice]

How do ban bets with mods work? I get banned and nothing happens to you?

Maybe she loses her mod powers?

Sort of like in Superman II.

 

[schuelma]

Tales of Graces, where if I recall you and donny thought it would sell well because of increased foot traffic of NSMBWIi?

I thought it should- obviously it didn't. I also thought SW3 would completely bomb when it looks like that's the title that might have benefited from the foot traffic in December.

I'm not saying those 3 titles are going to be big hits, but I think its clear Nintendo is going to give the 2 RPG's a decent push which will ensure a lot higher than the 40-50K you seem to expect.

 

[Relaxed Muscle]

So time for some bold predictions from me: Last Story, Reginleiv, and Xenoblade won't hit 100k ltd combined.

I predict:

Last Story 234,987K

Reginleiv 56,157K

Xenoblade 185,562K

I'm 88% sure.

 

[jay]

Ban bets are puerile. How about if I'm right you just say "hey, you were right and I was wrong!" and if I'm wrong I'll go "hey look I suck at making predictions, I was wrong!"

Wouldn't that be novel?

So then I won't be able to take over the site by gradually stripping all mods of their powers...

 

[Bebpo]

So time for some bold predictions from me: Last Story, Reginleiv, and Xenoblade won't hit 100k ltd combined.

Rengliev will sell more than the other two and probably do about 70k+, so it'll be close.

Don't underestimate the EDF fanbase in Japan.