Media Create Sales: Jan. 18 - 24, 2010
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
charlequin
Banned
donny2112 said:
I am so happy to agree with this. Home console sales in Japan are all crap.
Chris1964 said:
This news doesn't really change my operating theory of DS2 announced at E3 for H1 2011 release. The followup system will have BC anyway so it doesn't really matter if they release the next Pokemon six months before the new hardware anyway.
schuelma said:
This last batch of announcements and mildly increased promotion thereof does look to me like what I would do if I were Nintendo and finally realized I should actually try to slightly take care of my core customers, only I were still as stupid as Nintendo actually is about this sort of thing.
Dragona Akehi said:
I said this elsewhere, but there's basically no conceivable way this happens. Monolithsoft's worst performing RPG is BKO with 44k and Xenoblade is not going to under that by over 10k units, which is more or less what it'd have to do for this scenario to play out. It's far more likely that it'll perform comparably to Soma Bringer, just barely edging into six digits of sales.
What'd be more interesting is an over-under on, say, 250k sales between all three titles. I'd take the under on that; anyone out there willing to take the over?
charlequin
Banned
schuelma said:
Oh I sure as hell wouldn't go that far. I would say it is conceivable that Nintendo will give them some of a push (which, in fairness, is more than last-time-around bombas ASH, Soma Bringer, and Chosoju Mecha MG got.)
Actually, looking at that list right there is instructive. Together, those three titles did 323,513 units LTD, according to garaph. :lol
Dragona Akehi
Retired
charlequin said:
Don't forget those are on DS though. The Wii userbase is much smaller.
charlequin said:
Not to translate DS sales into Wii sales, but given the proper marketing as you and many other have stated, it wouldn't be impossible for the 3 games to reach a higher cap than the one you just mentioned.
I know it is a stretch, but Nintendo should be able to make those 3 games reach at least 500k combined, now that will they actually put the effort is a different matter.
Rocksteady33
Junior Member
Inazuma Eleven?
...
So I made this prediction:
Let's see how it turned out. First, PS3 and Wii:
Of the seven relevant weeks, five said I was wrong. Therein I failed by 52759 units on average. Averaging over all seven weeks (not just the failed ones), reality scoffed at me with an average weekly magnitude of 30960.
What else do we have? Ah yes, PSPgo vs Xbox 360:
And again, I failed five times, this time by 2921 units on average. Across all seven weeks, a weekly error of 2834 units weighs upon my prediction, and by extension my conscience.
Also, there's this:
So, uh, dear schuelma. I'm deeply sorry for all the trouble I've caused you, the grief, the loss of sleep. I promise to better myself and hope to find my way soon. Please forgive me.
So I made this prediction:
Let's see how it turned out. First, PS3 and Wii:
Of the seven relevant weeks, five said I was wrong. Therein I failed by 52759 units on average. Averaging over all seven weeks (not just the failed ones), reality scoffed at me with an average weekly magnitude of 30960.
What else do we have? Ah yes, PSPgo vs Xbox 360:
And again, I failed five times, this time by 2921 units on average. Across all seven weeks, a weekly error of 2834 units weighs upon my prediction, and by extension my conscience.
Also, there's this:
So, uh, dear schuelma. I'm deeply sorry for all the trouble I've caused you, the grief, the loss of sleep. I promise to better myself and hope to find my way soon. Please forgive me.
Actually I just noticed Reginleiv is only 1p offline so I'm going to drop my expectations down to about 50k lifetime. At least in the english-speaking scene EDF sells primarily on being a great split-screen coop game. If Rengliev is betting on people accepting online coop as a replacement...I don't think it'll pay off. I also think it'll have more of a used copy problem with no offline multiplayer. People will beat the SP and trade it in if they are not an online gamer (which is most of Japan).
Dragona Akehi
Retired
Oh, one caveat to my previous posts: I reserve the right to rescind my prediction if cvxfreak says any of the titles named are going to sell big ahead of the release dates.
Dragona Akehi
Retired
gerg said:
cvxfreak knows all. I simply bow to his superior knowledge. To be be unchanging in opinion in the light of new knowledge is stupidity, after all.
This prediction is destined to fail. The only title from these I can see doing LTD<100K is Reginleiv.Dragona Akehi said:
You were right with Tales but wrong with NSBMW impact ;D
I thought you were talking about a 2010 release? Maybe I'm confusing you with someone else. I agree with 2011 release for DS2 but disagree with E3 announcement.charlequin said:
thestopsign
Member
The Last Story has huge potential, but I think I see it doing around what White Knight Chronicles did LTD. Xenoblade will probably do around what the last Xenosaga game did, so 180k. Then Regenliev will do somewhere under 100k. Those are my predictions. If Nintendo does a serious push for any of these games, then we could be talking about a lot more sales though.
Dash Kappei
Not actually that important
Dragona said:
Sorry but... LTDs?
:lol
C'mon, that's more than "bold"... there's no chance in hell that'll happen.
Last Story alone will do more than that, even with a poor first week.
I wait for the inevitable "they're just selling more because they're in the bomba bin" that'll pop up in this thread if those titles perform decently
charlequin said:
Again, are we talking LTDs?
Maybe over 300k.
IF Nintendo continues their meager marketing for hardcore titles (see sin and punishment or excitebots) i can see those three titles selling 100k combined ltd.. but it looks like they changed their attitude a bit.. at least with reginleiv they are distributing demo discs and whatnot.. so maybe itll do a little better then 50k to 70k ltd...
yeah but sin and punishment 2 sold sub 10k the first week..Agnates said:Yeah I'm sure everybody would just LOVE rail shooters if only they were marketed more. I love this kind of game but it's always been extremely niche, not just lately. It sure didn't help SEGA with the Saturn for example. God damn where's my now-gen Panzer fix
Well it remains to be seen how it fares in the West. Wasn't the rumour that it was made for the Western market after surprising sales of the original on VC or something? Though that 10k is in line with the other recent rail shooter, maybe people have had enough of it. I doubt most can distinguish a cheap EA cash from an awesome Treasure project sadly.
100k would mean something like 10k for Reginleiv, 40k for Xenoblade and 50k for Last Story. I don't think that this scenario is very likely. All of these games are going to sell at least slightly better than that.farnham said:
As sad as it is, in S&P2's case the amount of extra units sold, probably wouldn't have justified the additional costs for marketing. The genre is dead.farnham said:
Dash Kappei
Not actually that important
Does anybody have something resembling LTD sales for KETSUI DS?
thanks.
thanks.
On the DS I'd agree, but on the Wii? I can't see them doing those numbers unless they get a marketing push from Nintendo. I think Xenoblade might be able to crack 100k like Soma Bringer did, way after it launches. That's if having Xeno in the title does anything to boost sales. The Last Story has no chance at all if Nintendo doesn't market it since nobody would know what it is. It'll be the next A.S.H., except being on Wii I don't see it doing half the numbers and that's if they can even ship half as much.thestopsign said:
LINK.AGE76
Member
My predictions:
Rengliev will do 50k
Xenoblade will do 150k
Last story will do 250k
Rengliev will do 50k
Xenoblade will do 150k
Last story will do 250k
Quadrangulum
Banned
If the theory about The Last Story using Wii Vitality Sensor is correct, I can see the game doing fairly well if they are bundled together.
LINK.AGE76
Member
Busaiku said:
I think Reginleiv would sell 25k without a demo rental, but with the demo rental it increases awareness. I heard many great impressions from the demo so word of mouth will be good. So initially I thought 25k for the game but now I predict 50k.
Khrno said:
The Last Story was registered with a "Nintendo Device". Many think it's the vitality sensor and it's most likely the case.
I think The Last Story can perform better than Blue Dragon if it's a comparable quality product. It would be sweet if they really went beyond that however, turning it into a FF caliber title... I'm sure that it wouldn't be hard for Nintendo to spot the potential and act accordingly, if it's actually there of course.
I don't know about Reginleiv and Xenoblade though, those two could completely flop, or perform decently, depending on what kind of products they end up being again. I was confident about Crystal Bearers but as we went closer to release it showed the sub par side of it and disappointed the majority of gamers. In the end, it performed as it should have really (ie not well at all). I'll have to see how these games shape up first.
I don't know about Reginleiv and Xenoblade though, those two could completely flop, or perform decently, depending on what kind of products they end up being again. I was confident about Crystal Bearers but as we went closer to release it showed the sub par side of it and disappointed the majority of gamers. In the end, it performed as it should have really (ie not well at all). I'll have to see how these games shape up first.
LINK.AGE76
Member
Agnates said:
Last Story certainly has the chance to sell well. If its advertised well enough and is a AAA game it will sell really well. I think if Mistwalker made blog stories about the game every week or so up to release it will have a lot of awareness and hype.
SecretBonusPoint
Banned
Mistwalker sort of has the taint of failure to it at this point, so I don't see Last Story doing too well at all.
Hero of Legend
Member
LINK.AGE76 said:
The Last Dojo, perhaps? :O
LINK.AGE76
Member
Khrno said:
Taken from the Last Story OP, Duckroll said "The theme of the game involves the universal feelings all of humanity shares."
I guess it will have to do with the gamer's feelings but that's very ambitious lol
LINK.AGE76
Member
HK-47 said:
That game had an interesting idea, sadly it was canned D:
Hero of Legend
Member
I'm just thinking, if it does use the VS and your emotions affect what's going on, it's gotta be a pretty specific when you're able to play the game.
I mean if you're in a bad mood over a bad day or a bad stomach ache (not bad enough for a Hospital visit mind you) then your gameplay is going to be focused on your bad mood, but what if you don't want for it to be that way? You'd have to forcefully wait until you're closer to neutral to where you can control your emotions more. And I don't think if you're in pain you're going to be able to do that easily or quickly.
Purely speculation based on the mere possibilities of this thing and if the game even uses it, but this possibility would affect any game that supports it.
I mean if you're in a bad mood over a bad day or a bad stomach ache (not bad enough for a Hospital visit mind you) then your gameplay is going to be focused on your bad mood, but what if you don't want for it to be that way? You'd have to forcefully wait until you're closer to neutral to where you can control your emotions more. And I don't think if you're in pain you're going to be able to do that easily or quickly.
Purely speculation based on the mere possibilities of this thing and if the game even uses it, but this possibility would affect any game that supports it.
LINK.AGE76
Member
Hero of Legend said:
That's why I think VS is really ambitious and way to early. I don't know how it will really work.
Segata Sanshiro
Member
Honestly any serious speculation on what Sakaguchi said is probably just a waste of time. He spews similar flowery words about the themes of any of his games.