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[ivysaur12]

Rengliev will sell more than the other two and probably do about 70k+, so it'll be close.

Don't underestimate the EDF fanbase in Japan.

Really? I would have said around 40k total for Rengliev, and I even feel like that's a little too high.

 

[ClearCELL]

Last Story should sell really well - Around 200k would be great imo.

 

[Bebpo]

Really? I would have said around 40k total for Rengliev, and I even feel like that's a little too high.

I might be wrong, but didn't EDF1/2 sells over 100k? The X360 one doesn't count since no one bought an X360 in Japan.

I would guess a lot of the simple series buyers picked up a Wii since they are down with the cheaper, lower budget gaming.

 

[selig]

I am assured victory.

Okay, then I predict that Reginleiv will do about 30k, which will be good for that kind of game. Xenoblades will do close to 100k, and Last Story will make between 250k and 750k.

 

[charlequin]

Yea, PS3! You've made it up to the crap levels Wii was doing last year, which just happen to be less than the quickly-approaching-crap levels Wii is doing this year! But guess what? It's all crap! Woo-hoo!

I am so happy to agree with this. Home console sales in Japan are all crap.

With new Pokemon releasing this year for DS have we now finally passed the point that DS2 is coming this year? (just saw neo article)

This news doesn't really change my operating theory of DS2 announced at E3 for H1 2011 release. The followup system will have BC anyway so it doesn't really matter if they release the next Pokemon six months before the new hardware anyway.

Are we finally seeing evidence that Nintendo is taking steps to cultivate and develop more of a "core" audience by utilizing internal and external resources toward that goal? Or is the 2010 lineup just a happy coincidence?

This last batch of announcements and mildly increased promotion thereof does look to me like what I would do if I were Nintendo and finally realized I should actually try to slightly take care of my core customers, only I were still as stupid as Nintendo actually is about this sort of thing.

So time for some bold predictions from me: Last Story, Reginleiv, and Xenoblade won't hit 100k ltd combined.

I said this elsewhere, but there's basically no conceivable way this happens. Monolithsoft's worst performing RPG is BKO with 44k and Xenoblade is not going to under that by over 10k units, which is more or less what it'd have to do for this scenario to play out. It's far more likely that it'll perform comparably to Soma Bringer, just barely edging into six digits of sales.

What'd be more interesting is an over-under on, say, 250k sales between all three titles. I'd take the under on that; anyone out there willing to take the over?

 

[charlequin]

I'm not saying those 3 titles are going to be big hits, but I think its clear Nintendo is going to give the 2 RPG's a decent push which will ensure a lot higher than the 40-50K you seem to expect.

Oh I sure as hell wouldn't go that far. I would say it is conceivable that Nintendo will give them some of a push (which, in fairness, is more than last-time-around bombas ASH, Soma Bringer, and Chosoju Mecha MG got.)

Actually, looking at that list right there is instructive. Together, those three titles did 323,513 units LTD, according to garaph. :lol

 

[Celine]

Could someone compile a list of the best selling brand new IP JRPG for the last 3 - 4 years ?

 

[Dragona Akehi]

Oh I sure as hell wouldn't go that far. I would say it is conceivable that Nintendo will give them some of a push (which, in fairness, is more than last-time-around bombas ASH, Soma Bringer, and Chosoju Mecha MG got.)

Actually, looking at that list right there is instructive. Together, those three titles did 323,513 units LTD, according to garaph. :lol

Don't forget those are on DS though. The Wii userbase is much smaller.

 

[Bebpo]

Could someone compile a list of the best selling brand new IP JRPG for the last 3 - 4 years ?

Blue Dragon?

 

[Khrno]

Oh I sure as hell wouldn't go that far. I would say it is conceivable that Nintendo will give them some of a push (which, in fairness, is more than last-time-around bombas ASH, Soma Bringer, and Chosoju Mecha MG got.)

Actually, looking at that list right there is instructive. Together, those three titles did 323,513 units LTD, according to garaph. :lol

Not to translate DS sales into Wii sales, but given the proper marketing as you and many other have stated, it wouldn't be impossible for the 3 games to reach a higher cap than the one you just mentioned.

I know it is a stretch, but Nintendo should be able to make those 3 games reach at least 500k combined, now that will they actually put the effort is a different matter.

 

[Rocksteady33]

Inazuma Eleven?

 

[wrowa]

I believe Nintendo will actually push Last Story, but they won't do a thing for Xenoblade. As mentioned in the Last Story thread: I have the feeling that the new name is the biggest marketing push Nintendo has planned for that one...

 

[schuelma]

Oh I sure as hell wouldn't go that far. I would say it is conceivable that Nintendo will give them some of a push (which, in fairness, is more than last-time-around bombas ASH, Soma Bringer, and Chosoju Mecha MG got.)

By decent I meant something more than Takt of Magic/ASH, etc..not NSMB Wii or anything. As in "the consumer will at the very least know about the game".

 

[wrowa]

Blue Dragon?

Inazuma Eleven and White Knight Chronicles sold better than BD.

 

[schuelma]

What'd be more interesting is an over-under on, say, 250k sales between all three titles. I'd take the under on that; anyone out there willing to take the over?

Hmm..that is a tough one.

As I am ever the Nintendo optimistic I will take the over..slightly.

 

[Rolf NB]

...

So I made this prediction:

Let's see how it turned out. First, PS3 and Wii:

Of the seven relevant weeks, five said I was wrong. Therein I failed by 52759 units on average. Averaging over all seven weeks (not just the failed ones), reality scoffed at me with an average weekly magnitude of 30960.

What else do we have? Ah yes, PSPgo vs Xbox 360:

And again, I failed five times, this time by 2921 units on average. Across all seven weeks, a weekly error of 2834 units weighs upon my prediction, and by extension my conscience.

Also, there's this:

So, uh, dear schuelma. I'm deeply sorry for all the trouble I've caused you, the grief, the loss of sleep. I promise to better myself and hope to find my way soon. Please forgive me.

 

[schuelma]

So, uh, dear schuelma. I'm deeply sorry for all the trouble I've caused you, the grief, the loss of sleep. I promise to better myself and hope to find my way soon. Please forgive me.

:lol :lol Well done sir, well done.

 

[cvxfreak]

Oooooooookay.

 

[Bebpo]

Actually I just noticed Reginleiv is only 1p offline so I'm going to drop my expectations down to about 50k lifetime. At least in the english-speaking scene EDF sells primarily on being a great split-screen coop game. If Rengliev is betting on people accepting online coop as a replacement...I don't think it'll pay off. I also think it'll have more of a used copy problem with no offline multiplayer. People will beat the SP and trade it in if they are not an online gamer (which is most of Japan).

 

[Dragona Akehi]

Oh, one caveat to my previous posts: I reserve the right to rescind my prediction if cvxfreak says any of the titles named are going to sell big ahead of the release dates.

 

[gerg]

Oh, one caveat to my previous posts: I reserve the right to rescind my prediction if cvxfreak says any of the titles named are going to sell big ahead of the release dates.

Feeling adventurous, I see.

 

[Dragona Akehi]

Feeling adventurous, I see.

cvxfreak knows all. I simply bow to his superior knowledge. To be be unchanging in opinion in the light of new knowledge is stupidity, after all.

 

[Chris1964]

So time for some bold predictions from me: Last Story, Reginleiv, and Xenoblade won't hit 100k ltd combined.

This prediction is destined to fail. The only title from these I can see doing LTD<100K is Reginleiv.

You were right with Tales but wrong with NSBMW impact ;D

This news doesn't really change my operating theory of DS2 announced at E3 for H1 2011 release. The followup system will have BC anyway so it doesn't really matter if they release the next Pokemon six months before the new hardware anyway.

I thought you were talking about a 2010 release? Maybe I'm confusing you with someone else. I agree with 2011 release for DS2 but disagree with E3 announcement.

 

[thestopsign]

The Last Story has huge potential, but I think I see it doing around what White Knight Chronicles did LTD. Xenoblade will probably do around what the last Xenosaga game did, so 180k. Then Regenliev will do somewhere under 100k. Those are my predictions. If Nintendo does a serious push for any of these games, then we could be talking about a lot more sales though.

 

[Dash Kappei]

So time for some bold predictions from me: Last Story, Reginleiv, and Xenoblade won't hit 100k ltd combined.

Sorry but... LTDs?
:lol
C'mon, that's more than "bold"... there's no chance in hell that'll happen.
Last Story alone will do more than that, even with a poor first week.
I wait for the inevitable "they're just selling more because they're in the bomba bin" that'll pop up in this thread if those titles perform decently

What'd be more interesting is an over-under on, say, 250k sales between all three titles. I'd take the under on that; anyone out there willing to take the over?

Again, are we talking LTDs?
Maybe over 300k.

 

[farnham]

IF Nintendo continues their meager marketing for hardcore titles (see sin and punishment or excitebots) i can see those three titles selling 100k combined ltd.. but it looks like they changed their attitude a bit.. at least with reginleiv they are distributing demo discs and whatnot.. so maybe itll do a little better then 50k to 70k ltd...

 

[Agnates]

IF Nintendo continues their meager marketing for hardcore titles (see sin and punishment or excitebots) i can see those three titles selling 100k combined ltd.. but it looks like they changed their attitude a bit.. at least with reginleiv they are distributing demo discs and whatnot.. so maybe itll do a little better then 50k to 70k ltd...

Yeah I'm sure everybody would just LOVE rail shooters if only they were marketed more. I love this kind of game but it's always been extremely niche, not just lately. It sure didn't help SEGA with the Saturn for example. God damn where's my now-gen Panzer fix

 

[farnham]

Yeah I'm sure everybody would just LOVE rail shooters if only they were marketed more. I love this kind of game but it's always been extremely niche, not just lately. It sure didn't help SEGA with the Saturn for example. God damn where's my now-gen Panzer fix

yeah but sin and punishment 2 sold sub 10k the first week..

 

[Agnates]

Well it remains to be seen how it fares in the West. Wasn't the rumour that it was made for the Western market after surprising sales of the original on VC or something? Though that 10k is in line with the other recent rail shooter, maybe people have had enough of it. I doubt most can distinguish a cheap EA cash from an awesome Treasure project sadly.

 

[wrowa]

IF Nintendo continues their meager marketing for hardcore titles (see sin and punishment or excitebots) i can see those three titles selling 100k combined ltd.. but it looks like they changed their attitude a bit.. at least with reginleiv they are distributing demo discs and whatnot.. so maybe itll do a little better then 50k to 70k ltd...

100k would mean something like 10k for Reginleiv, 40k for Xenoblade and 50k for Last Story. I don't think that this scenario is very likely. All of these games are going to sell at least slightly better than that.

yeah but sin and punishment 2 sold sub 10k the first week..

As sad as it is, in S&P2's case the amount of extra units sold, probably wouldn't have justified the additional costs for marketing. The genre is dead.

 

[Dash Kappei]

Does anybody have something resembling LTD sales for KETSUI DS?

thanks.

 

[jj984jj]

The Last Story has huge potential, but I think I see it doing around what White Knight Chronicles did LTD. Xenoblade will probably do around what the last Xenosaga game did, so 180k. Then Regenliev will do somewhere under 100k. Those are my predictions. If Nintendo does a serious push for any of these games, then we could be talking about a lot more sales though.

On the DS I'd agree, but on the Wii? I can't see them doing those numbers unless they get a marketing push from Nintendo. I think Xenoblade might be able to crack 100k like Soma Bringer did, way after it launches. That's if having Xeno in the title does anything to boost sales. The Last Story has no chance at all if Nintendo doesn't market it since nobody would know what it is. It'll be the next A.S.H., except being on Wii I don't see it doing half the numbers and that's if they can even ship half as much.

 

[LINK.AGE76]

My predictions:

Rengliev will do 50k
Xenoblade will do 150k
Last story will do 250k

 

[Quadrangulum]

If the theory about The Last Story using Wii Vitality Sensor is correct, I can see the game doing fairly well if they are bundled together.

 

[Khrno]

If the theory about The Last Story using Wii Vitality Sensor is correct, I can see the game doing fairly well if they are bundled together.

Please elaborate.

 

[Busaiku]

I might be wrong, but didn't EDF1/2 sells over 100k? The X360 one doesn't count since no one bought an X360 in Japan.

I would guess a lot of the simple series buyers picked up a Wii since they are down with the cheaper, lower budget gaming.

It's not right to assume an older franchise would do just as well now.
It's not like Chocobo Dungeon pushes 1 million any more.

Plus, I don't think Reginleiv's a budget release either.

 

[LINK.AGE76]

It's not right to assume an older franchise would do just as well now.
It's not like Chocobo Dungeon pushes 1 million any more.

Plus, I don't think Reginleiv's a budget release either.

I think Reginleiv would sell 25k without a demo rental, but with the demo rental it increases awareness. I heard many great impressions from the demo so word of mouth will be good. So initially I thought 25k for the game but now I predict 50k.

Please elaborate.

The Last Story was registered with a "Nintendo Device". Many think it's the vitality sensor and it's most likely the case.

 

[Agnates]

I think The Last Story can perform better than Blue Dragon if it's a comparable quality product. It would be sweet if they really went beyond that however, turning it into a FF caliber title... I'm sure that it wouldn't be hard for Nintendo to spot the potential and act accordingly, if it's actually there of course.

I don't know about Reginleiv and Xenoblade though, those two could completely flop, or perform decently, depending on what kind of products they end up being again. I was confident about Crystal Bearers but as we went closer to release it showed the sub par side of it and disappointed the majority of gamers. In the end, it performed as it should have really (ie not well at all). I'll have to see how these games shape up first.

 

[LINK.AGE76]

I think The Last Story can perform better than Blue Dragon if it's a comparable quality product. It would be sweet if they really went beyond that however, making into a FF caliber title... I'm sure that it wouldn't be hard for Nintendo to spot the potential and act accordingly, if it's actually there.

I don't know about Reginleiv, and Xenoblade though, those two could completely flop, or perform decently, depending on what kind of products they end up being again.

Last Story certainly has the chance to sell well. If its advertised well enough and is a AAA game it will sell really well. I think if Mistwalker made blog stories about the game every week or so up to release it will have a lot of awareness and hype.

 

[SecretBonusPoint]

Mistwalker sort of has the taint of failure to it at this point, so I don't see Last Story doing too well at all.

 

[Hero of Legend]

Last Story certainly has the chance to sell well. If its advertised well enough and is a AAA game it will sell really well. I think if Mistwalker made blog stories about the game every week or so up to release it will have a lot of awareness and hype.

The Last Dojo, perhaps? :O

 

[Khrno]

The Last Story was registered with a "Nintendo Device". Many think it's the vitality sensor and it's most likely the case.

I see, thanks.

I just don't want to think how to incorporate the VS in a RPG.

 

[7Th]

Why would Sakaguchi be able to do with Nintendo's smaller budget what he couldn't do with Microsoft's huge budget?

 

[LINK.AGE76]

I see, thanks.

I just don't want to think how to incorporate the VS in a RPG.

Taken from the Last Story OP, Duckroll said "The theme of the game involves the universal feelings all of humanity shares."

I guess it will have to do with the gamer's feelings but that's very ambitious lol

 

[HK-47]

Taken from the Last Story OP, Duckroll said "The theme of the game involves the universal feelings all of humanity shares."

I guess it will have to do with the gamer's feelings but that's very ambitious lol

Sounds like the crazy emotional promises of Cry On.

 

[LINK.AGE76]

Sounds like the crazy emotional promises of Cry On.

That game had an interesting idea, sadly it was canned D:

 

[Hero of Legend]

I'm just thinking, if it does use the VS and your emotions affect what's going on, it's gotta be a pretty specific when you're able to play the game.

I mean if you're in a bad mood over a bad day or a bad stomach ache (not bad enough for a Hospital visit mind you) then your gameplay is going to be focused on your bad mood, but what if you don't want for it to be that way? You'd have to forcefully wait until you're closer to neutral to where you can control your emotions more. And I don't think if you're in pain you're going to be able to do that easily or quickly.

Purely speculation based on the mere possibilities of this thing and if the game even uses it, but this possibility would affect any game that supports it.

 

[LINK.AGE76]

I'm just thinking, if it does use the VS and your emotions affect what's going on, it's gotta be a pretty specific when you're able to play the game.

I mean if you're in a bad mood over a bad day or a bad stomach ache (not bad enough for a Hospital visit mind you) then your gameplay is going to be focused on your bad mood, but what if you don't want for it to be that way? You'd have to forcefully wait until you're closer to neutral to where you can control your emotions more. And I don't think if you're in pain you're going to be able to do that easily.

Purely speculation based on the mere possibilities of this thing and if the game even uses it, but this possibility would affect any game that supports it.

That's why I think VS is really ambitious and way to early. I don't know how it will really work.

 

[schuelma]

Why would Sakaguchi be able to do with Nintendo's smaller budget what he couldn't do with Microsoft's huge budget?

While recent precedent is not on Nintendo's side, I don't think we should assume anything yet since we literally only have a logo and a music sample.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

Honestly any serious speculation on what Sakaguchi said is probably just a waste of time. He spews similar flowery words about the themes of any of his games.