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[Galactic Fork]

I think a better question to ask would be where Kirby went.

Wow, you're right, I didn't even notice. It was doing so well too.

 

[John Harker]

1. (PS2, Capcom) Grand Theft Auto San Andreas - 227,261
2. (DS, Square Enix) Dragon Quest Monsters Joker - 103,706 / 1,026,700
3. (DS, Sega) San Goku Shi Taisen DS - 77,229
4. (DS, Nintendo) Picross DS - 71,794
5. (DS, Nintendo) Hotel Dusk Wish Room - 59,379
6. (Wii, Nintendo) Wii Sports - 58,886 / 910,422
7. (DS, Nintendo) Kaitou Wario The Seven - 47,350 / 138,599
8. (Wii, Nintendo) Wii Play - 43,612 / 808,425
9. (PS2, Huck Berry) Pachinko Winter no Sonata Pachitte-chan Mage Tatsujin 10 - 41,411
10. (DS, Nintendo) Brain Age 2 - 34,028 / 3,902,307

Here's the format I use whenever I post the threads. Maybe we should take a poll one day to see which format most people prefer.

Commas ALWAYS win.

cvxfreaks for the win. gooooooo game-science

 

[cvxfreak]

Wow, commas are a much bigger deal than I thought they were. I can read numbers just fine without them.

 

[enishi]

Sega shipped 1 Million before 2006 ended, but when I was in Japan a few weeks ago most stores offered it for half of what its MSRP is (so around 3000 Yen). I think demand for it's really dipped now. Should still sell a million, but not as fast as we all thought nor as much as the 1.5 Million the Famitsu guy predicted long ago.

Poor sale prediction from Sega... They should ship fewer Love&Berry and give us more Sengoshi Taisen as soon as possible! The import price is reaching skyrocket here...

 

[BrodiemanTTR]

Eh, it's not as much fun when sinobi posts the numbers two days ahead of time. Hardware numbers are the real bread and butter of every MC thread.

 

[PantherLotus]

Eh, it's not as much fun when sinobi posts the numbers two days ahead of time. Hardware numbers are the real bread and butter of every MC thread.

One might look to the software numbers and be able to make a prediction on the hardware.
Of course, that would require a brain, wouldn't it?

Next Gen Week 9 Predictions
Wii - 88k
PS3 - 23k
360 - 8k

 

[ioi]

It's interesting to note that in terms of software, Wii is tracking comfortably ahead of DS at the same time from launch, and is catching up with hardware.

Wii is tracking miles ahead of N64, Gamecube and even SNES. It is early days yet but demand appears to be high

 

[dirtmonkey37]

GTA is surprising.......

Of course, I never looked at the MC sales data for VC or GTAIII.....I assume they were close to as good...

 

[AniHawk]

GTA is surprising.......

Of course, I never looked at the MC sales data for VC or GTAIII.....I assume they were close to as good...

Yeah, the GTA series has always done well in Japan (well, the GTA III series).

 

[Bebpo]

Wow, I am surprised [EM] PS3 bombed that badly. I guess everyone who wanted it bought the X360 version and then I guess only ~40k people in the country wanted to play it? I get the feeling that most people hardcore enough to own an X360 in Japan also own a PS3, which would help explain the low sales for RR7 as multi-platform owners would be satisfied with RR6 and the X360 [EM].

 

[Jenga]

Awesome sales numbers for Hotel Dusk.

 

[Agent Icebeezy]

I'm going to go out on a limb and predict 400k first week for Virtua Fighter 5. PS3 owners have to be sitting on their hands waiting for something in the first 6 months of the year...right?

VF4 sold less than 400K first week when there were over 9 million PS2s in Japan. That limb you are on is about to snap

 

[Greenpanda]

congrats GTA

is Gears still sold out?

 

[RaijinFY]

I love how PS3 software sales are doing even worse than PSP's....

 

[andthebeatgoeson]

So it's the one year anniversary of itprintsmoney.gif?
CELEBRATE!
dancingbananas.gif

This is where it begins. http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=2715691&postcount=182

GanonDorf Goes Fishing FTW!

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=2715726&postcount=217

That didn't take long. As long as we are keeping a mental GAF history...

 

[cvxfreak]

I love how PS3 software sales are doing even worse than PSP's....

One of the PSP games is from 2005 too.

 

[Barf_the_Mog]

So how close was I when I predicted 1 million PSPs sold in Japan this past December?

 

[cvxfreak]

So how close was I when I predicted 1 million PSPs sold in Japan this past December?

Not very.

 

[909er]

Interesting. 360 is selling higher so far week to week from last year. Maybe Blue Dragon did have a small effect. It might even beat the original Xbox's LTD this year if it doesn't go below 4000 a week.

 

[AniHawk]

So how close was I when I predicted 1 million PSPs sold in Japan this past December?

Well it sold 309,072 from November 27 through December 31, so you were kinda close.

 

[cvxfreak]

PSP in December in Japan: 309,072

EDIT: Beaten

 

[Barf_the_Mog]

Not very.

Well at least I make better predictions than those so called "professional" video game forecasters!

Audience: WHOOOOOOO!!! HAHAHAHA!!! (after the audience slowly winds down their clapping one college student-aged whipper snapper shouts, "Awwwe snap, no he dih-ent!"...the audience chuckles)

Haha. I kid, I kid.

 

[Link]

Take that bitches!
A so-so game getting a ****ing good spot on charts, just wait to VF5 awesomeness and the Gundam Mosou goodness, the king will return.

 

[Cheesemeister]

224% too high.

 

[icecream]

Do you really find it odd that Idolmaster sold more than Enchant arms, a rerelease of a new IP RPG? I mean, if you had gone to Akihabara atleast once in the past month you could see why this game sold well. In fact, I expected it to sell a LOT better than it actually did.

Yes and no. For a game of its type, ~30K is good. I just thought it would align with the 360 crowd more than just the otakus, which then sort of explains why DOAX2 did better.

 

[aeolist]

Interesting. 360 is selling higher so far week to week from last year. Maybe Blue Dragon did have a small effect. It might even beat the original Xbox's LTD this year if it doesn't go below 4000 a week.

A lofty goal

 

[ethelred]

Guess we now have numeric confirmation that Atlus provided basically no copies of Sekaiju in its second week.

This inability of various publishers to actually get carts created of their games is very, very troubling. As bad as the whole hardware shortage is, it's nothing compared to this issue, which can seriously start crippling some of these games down the road in terms of their sales, and that's going to lead to a much greater reluctance to continue making games for the platform.

Nintendo needs to get this issue straightened out.

 

[duderon]

1,000,000 - 309,072 = :lol

Some suit is lining up an analyst job for you as we speak.

 

[Tiktaalik]

Does GTA:SA have a cool different Japanese box art or is it just the same?

 

[PantherLotus]

Guess we now have numeric confirmation that Atlus provided basically no copies of Sekaiju in its second week.

This inability of various publishers to actually get carts created of their games is very, very troubling. As bad as the whole hardware shortage is, it's nothing compared to this issue, which can seriously start crippling some of these games down the road in terms of their sales, and that's going to lead to a much greater reluctance to continue making games for the platform.

Nintendo needs to get this issue straightened out.

You're kinda making a lot of assumptions.

I mean, even if sales rose dramatically from one week to the next, there's nothing to prove that it has anything to do with an inability to manufacture carts, nor is there any proof that there's an issue that really needs to be straightened out other than hoping the Japanese would be a more predictable market.

 

[Pachael]

It's tough for anybody to celebrate because this seems usual - a GTA game topping the charts. But that's big, considering it's content, rating and that the ports something like 14 months after it was released. Where are the Japan guys whining about long porting times? ;p

 

[PantherLotus]

I want to see more people put their balls out there and make some next-gen predictions. It's not hard and it costs nothing!

 

[cvxfreak]

Does GTA:SA have a cool different Japanese box art or is it just the same?

 

[Square2005]

Well it sold 309,072 from November 27 through December 31, so you were kinda close.

Still lower than Michael Pachter's predictions.

 

[apujanata]

I want to see more people put their balls out there and make some next-gen predictions. It's not hard and it costs nothing!

Making predictions may not be hard, and may not cost nothing, but if I follow your suggestion of putting MY balls out there, that means I might lose them, and my wife will complain about it .

My prediction (without putting my balls out there) :
DS : 110K
Wii : 80K
PS3 : 25K
PSP : 35K
PS2 : 20K
X360 : 8K

 

[ethelred]

You're kinda making a lot of assumptions.

I mean, even if sales rose dramatically from one week to the next, there's nothing to prove that it has anything to do with an inability to manufacture carts, nor is there any proof that there's an issue that really needs to be straightened out other than hoping the Japanese would be a more predictable market.

I don't think I am. We know there were issues with getting FFIII carts made. We've now learned from Sinobi that there's only going to be... what, one shipment of DQMJ in February, and that'll be in the middle of the month? That's due to cart problems, too. And now we have Atlus, apologizing on its website for underestimating demand but saying it can't get the carts out.

It does seem to be a very real problem here that I think needs to be corrected, because it strikes me as more serious than an inability to provide a consistently high amount of hardware.

 

[BrodiemanTTR]

I want to see more people put their balls out there and make some next-gen predictions. It's not hard and it costs nothing!

Nintendo owns Japan. Despite what Shane might have you believe, whatever anyone is working on for PSP is too little too late and it plays GameCube to DS' PS2. PS3 never recovers from its current condition and struggles throughout 2007 while Wii rides the backs of Super Paper Mario, Mario Galaxy, Smash Bros., Animal Crossing, and something we haven't even seen yet up into heaven, becoming the de facto Japanese console. 360 continues to be an irrelevance, and more and more Japanese developers migrate to Wii. Games like Devil May Cry, MGS, and Final Fantasy stay on PS3/360 due to an unwillingness by the devs to downgrade the graphics in a sequel, but studios pour more effort into new ventures on the Wii.

In America, 360 and Wii duke it out for the majority of 2007 in a battle of mainstream casual vs. mom-and-dad-and grandma casual with the hardcore on both sides. Super Paper Mario rides the wake of NSMB and becomes a surprise hit. Third parties begin to roll out serious Wii portfolios, "no third party support" becomes the "DS is a gimmick, PSP will crush it" of winter 2007. Shared 360/PS3 games sell better on 360 and PS3 continues to lose exclusives to 360 and more and more games are announced as multiplatform. By the time PS3's system-seller games get out the door, Xbox will have replaced PlayStation as the recognizable brand in cutting-edge gaming. PS3 sells behind 360 and Wii at least until a price drop comes, and it will holiday 2007.

Happy?

EDIT: As for the weekly hardware.

DSL: ~190k
Wii: ~85k
PSP: ~30k
PS2: ~20k
PS3: ~30k
360: ~9k
GameCube: 572

 

[Odysseus]

I want to see more people put their balls out there and make some next-gen predictions. It's not hard and it costs nothing!

predictions as in for the week or overall?

for the week:

wii - 90k
ps3 - 20k
360 - 6k

 

[Brak]

Predictions for the year:

Wii: 4.5 mill
PS3: 1.5 mill
360: 150K

million sellers:

Wii Sports
Wii Play
Super Mario Galaxy
Super Smash Bros Brawl
Dragon Quest: Swords
Metal Gear Solid 4(?)

 

[Fuzzy]

Maybe I'm an extremely fast typer?

Or you typed up all the names before the list was even out and just re-ordered them and added the numbers the same way I used to do it when I would create these threads.

It would also be nice if the new games were bolded like I used to do it.

 

[ethelred]

Predictions for the year:

Wii: 4.5 mill
PS3: 1.5 mill
360: 150K

million sellers:

Wii Sports
Wii Play
Super Mario Galaxy
Super Smash Bros Brawl
Dragon Quest: Swords
Metal Gear Solid 4(?)

I'd actually be very surprised if Metal Gear Solid 4 goes platinum, given how MGS3 sold on the PS2 and given the difficulties the PS3 is having in moving actual hardware.

But stranger things have happened.

 

[Deku]

I don't think I am. We know there were issues with getting FFIII carts made. We've now learned from Sinobi that there's only going to be... what, one shipment of DQMJ in February, and that'll be in the middle of the month? That's due to cart problems, too. And now we have Atlus, apologizing on its website for underestimating demand but saying it can't get the carts out.

It does seem to be a very real problem here that I think needs to be corrected, because it strikes me as more serious than an inability to provide a consistently high amount of hardware.

Can you elaborate on this? I was looking though some financials and realized Matrix is no longer a Nintendo investment, Sandisk bought them in 05. Maybe that had something to do with it.

 

[Brak]

I'd actually be very surprised if Metal Gear Solid 4 goes platinum, given how MGS3 sold on the PS2 and given the difficulties the PS3 is having in moving actual hardware.

But stranger things have happened.

Yeah I'm not that confident of it being a blockbuster but something has to convince Japanese gamers to get a PS3, and MGS4 might be that title.

I feel like it might get a major marketing push from Sony since they won't have any first-party titles, of that caliber, to pimp this year.

 

[VerTiGo]

Yeah I'm not that confident of it being a blockbuster but something has to convince Japanese gamers to get a PS3, and MGS4 might be that title.

I feel like it might get a major marketing push from Sony since they won't have any first-party titles, of that caliber, to pimp this year.

As much as I absolutely adore the Metal Gear Solid series (Metroid and MGS are my two favorite game series ever I might add) I don't think MGS4 will move many PS3 units. Original IPs man (i.e. Devil May Cry, Onimusha during the PS2 era), or a truly innovative reinvention of a franchise (like Super Mario 64 or GTAIII) are what will really sell a platform IMO.

 

[AniHawk]

wii - 90k
ps3 - 20k
360 - 6k

 

[Odysseus]

[IMG=]http://i5.tinypic.com/30jl6xw.jpg[/IMG]

it's never too late for a mulligan

 

[Jonnyram]

Can you elaborate on this? I was looking though some financials and realized Matrix is no longer a Nintendo investment, Sandisk bought them in 05. Maybe that had something to do with it.

Realistically, I don't think that has any bearing on this at all. The cold fact of the matter is that the DS has been astonishingly popular, to the extent that even the plastic boxes could not be made quickly enough (supposedly, though I never saw evidence of this anywhere). Matrix cannot be blamed for not keeping up with the harsh market demands that are currently going on, although the situation is significantly better than the NES/SNES/N64/GBA days. They've obviously given S-E some preferential treatment here as they got screwed with FFIII (by Pokemon). Atlus is drawing the short straw because they are a pretty tiny company.

 

[Moderation Unlimited]

Consoles are dead to Japan.

 

[ethelred]

Consoles are dead to Japan.

Japan seems to be loving its Wii.

 

[D.Lo]

Consoles are dead to Japan.

True.

Oh, except I think there's one that's selling at the same rate the PS2 did, and is a huge hit. I'm not sure what it's called. Your point is still totally valid though, I think...