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[charlequin]

So please stop pulling numbers out of your ass.

Oh for fuck's sake. If "like eight months ago or whatever" isn't enough indication of vagueness for you then I apologize.

Are you debating that the Wii's Japanese sales momentum has gone from hot product to middling underperformance and that a lack of desirable software is responsible?

Perhaps it is the case that Nintendo's first party software would ensure that could never happen. They just... failed to release even that!

Hahaha. Touché.

 

[Jokeropia]

You don't set how much you ship by your expectations, you set it off depending on what is the retailers and users response.

Which would be your expectations at the time of release, yes? I just wanna be clear on what you're saying.

The expectations you had when you decided to make the game mean shit to the expectations you have close to the release and the shipment you are going to send to retailers. You don't live in the past, you adapt your expectations and your shipment to the reality of the present market.

Right, expectation can change along the way. As I said, I hope that these things are noted by the publisher somewhere or else there would be no way for us to accurately determine if a game is a success or a failure without the publisher coming out to explicitly say it.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Which would be your expectations at the time of release, yes? I just wanna be clear on what you're saying.

Yes, if the market response is bad (be it because you didn't advertise it well, delays, product is getting bad word of mouth, the market has declined, the userbase has moved, overcrowded release date, your image or that of your franchise has fallen in between...) it can lead to telling in your fiscal year forecasts that you expect your game to do poor, consequently affecting your first shipment. The opposite too, the market may response well and make you feel secure to set some high expectations and shipments that you didn't think you would have when you decided to make it.

Right, expectation can change along the way. As I said, I hope that these things are noted by the publisher somewhere or else there would be no way for us to accurately determine if a game is a success or a failure without the publisher coming out to explicitly say it.

Indeed, there's so much we never get to know about a game production, in the end that's why I choose talking about a game performance by comparing it to similar titles outcome in sales numbers, that thankfully we get to see in these threads.

 

[Dalthien]

Oh for fuck's sake. If "like eight months ago or whatever" isn't enough indication of vagueness for you then I apologize.

Are you debating that the Wii's Japanese sales momentum has gone from hot product to middling underperformance and that a lack of desirable software is responsible?

If we're talking about the drop in sales over the past 6-8 months, then yes, that is what I am debating. I just showed you the numbers from 6-8 months ago in my previous post. There is no correlation in the sales data to support your argument. In relative terms, every system has fallen just as much as the Wii in that time period. Which is why I said that it appears that the overall slump across the board in Japan's videogame industry seems to have more to do with the drop in Wii sales than anything to do with the lack of software.

I fully agree that the Wii has gone from hot product to middling underperformance. But guess what, so have the other two hot systems in Japan. Two systems which have had more robust software offerings than the Wii.

Going from the high periods in each system: (dates given are week-ending dates)

DS - average of 167k per week (an absolutely phenomenal stretch from Mar 5/06 - Aur 26/07 (where it topped 100k for 74 out of 78 weeks))
DS - average of 187k per week (using a 26-week period including X-Mas from Nov 19/06 - May 13/07 (where it topped 100k for 24 out of 26 weeks) to match with PSP and Wii below
PSP - average of 97k per week (excluding X-Mas period - stretch of 8 weeks in a row above 70k from Mar 30/08 - May 18/08)
PSP - average of 97k per week (including X-Mas period - stretch of 26 weeks from Nov 25/07 - May 18/08 (where it topped 70k for 21 out of 26 weeks))
Wii - average of 83k per week (excluding X-Mas period - stretch of 6 weeks in a row above 70k from Jan 13/08 - Feb 17/08)
Wii - average of 85k per week (including X-Mas period - stretch of 26 weeks from Nov 25/07 - May 18/08 (where it topped 70k for 13 out of 26 weeks))

Today:

DS - 45k
PSP - 27k
Wii - 21k


So even going back to the heydays for each system 1.5 years ago, the Wii has held up just as well as the other two hot systems. My point isn't that the Wii is selling well, because it is not. My point is that there is no evidence that the Wii's lack of software has hurt it in any significant manner when compared to the other two hot systems. All 3 are down significantly from where they were when the overall videogame indsutry was healthier in Japan. There's no evidence that the Wii has been hit any harder than the others - even though I think just about everyone would agree that the Wii has had a very shitty run of software releases for a while now.

 

[Jokeropia]

Yes, if the market response is bad (be it because you didn't advertise it well, delays, product is getting bad word of mouth, the market has declined, the userbase has moved, overcrowded release date, your image or that of your franchise has fallen in between...) it can lead to telling in your fiscal year forecasts that you expect your game to do poor, consequently affecting your first shipment. The opposite too, the market may response well and make you feel secure to set some high expectations and shipments that you didn't think you would have when you decided to make it.

So at least we get some info on this. I guess that's better than nothing.

Indeed, there's so much we never get to know about a game production, in the end that's why I choose talking about a game performance by comparing it to similar titles outcome in sales numbers, that thankfully we get to see in these threads.

Fair enough. I just wish we didn't have to resort to methods open to interpretation in so many cases. Don't get me wrong, it still provides interesting information, I just prefer when we can know something "for sure".

 

[charlequin]

If we're talking about the drop in sales over the past 6-8 months, then yes, that is what I am debating.

Okay then. Call me when you have real point to discuss.

 

[Dalthien]

Okay then. Call me when you have real point to discuss.

Well then, stop patting yourself on the back for a prediction that you said you made 6 or 8 months ago that hasn't been borne out by the sales data.