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[donny2112]

Now it's the "Swine Flu" fault !!

What do you perceive that I'm saying is due to the Swine Flu, precisely?

I think that hysteria pretty much ended at the end of May- just as an example, when I was there from the 21st-30th, I didn't notice much of anything.

Ok, good. I didn't see anything mentioned about the end of the restrictions, so I didn't know if they were still in place.

 

[dyls]

Atelier Rorona shows how sometimes it's more important for a console to have the right kind of userbase than an huge installed one.

It's a RPG announced less than four months ago. It looks like an upscaled ps2 game and comes from a small development studio/publisher but it still can do ~50k on its first week.

But doesn't that mean that all publishers will decide to just make RPGs from small development studios that look like upscaled PS2 games? I mean, why make anything else if this low-risk, low-cost game can be successful.

/GAF logic

 

[cvxfreak]

Capcom Japan didn't travel to E3 due to the restrictions.
Nintendo said they were coming in spite of the restrictions.
Vinnk said he had to basically be quarantined after coming back from the U.S.

If you're not in Japan, that's fine. If you are, are you still seeing a lot of people walk around with facemasks on, for example?

I see. Thanks for clarifying.

The actions of the executives at Capcom Japan and Nintendo couldn't possibly reflect sentiment for the populace. Would you stop going out if Reggie decided not to because of H1N1? Plus, Japanese has a vibrant delivery system anyway, so it's not like people can't get what they need even if they were forced indoors.

I am still in Japan (for the foreseeable future) and actually went in and out to and from the US twice at the height of the swine flu hysteria. But that was a long time ago (at least media-wise), and I can tell you that swine flu hasn't affected daily life in a noticeable fashion. Masks are still very much a part of Japanese culture, but by no means is everyone in Japan, or in Tokyo, wearing a mask out of hysteria. My university hasn't cancelled classes despite two students having been confirmed with H1N1, and the student body has not flipped out either.

Considering that Wii Sports Resort sold around 95% of its initial shipment and people have no problem buying multiple M+, I think making the swine flu connection is strenuous and irrelevant. There's a bigger chance someone committing suicide on a train line and thus causing a commute delay will hurt Wii sales than swine flu at this point. Basically, nil. It's not a connection even worth thinking about anymore, if ever.

I think the Japanese recession hasn't gotten enough attention myself as a potential reason for down sales. It seems Nintendo trolling has taken greater precedent for that, much to the glee of people who know who they are. But Japan's recession is quite serious, deflation concerns have risen and consumer sentiment in Japan is down across the board. Unemployment's up and the highest in a very long time.

Living in Japan, you know something's up when you buy a brand new pair of Puma shoes for ¥2800 (highway robbery), or McDonalds keeps offering great discounts on food (5 piece McNuggets for ¥100!). O-bento lunches for less than ¥400 take the cake for me, personally. Truth be told, these bargains are what make the high Yen barely manageable for someone like me whose financial well-being depends on the Dollar. I ate at a Michelin Guide restaurant a few weeks ago (one of the less expensive ones, ¥12000/person) for my birthday and the restaurant was mostly empty.

Games cannot be exempt from this consumer downturn. The Japanese aren't buying as many consumer products as they used to, or if they do, they'll buy used or hell, pirate. I firmly believe this is temporary, though I don't want anyone to mistake this rant as a way to take blame off Nintendo and the Japanese game industry.

 

[androvsky]

But doesn't that mean that all publishers will decide to just make RPGs from small development studios that look like upscaled PS2 games? I mean, why make anything else if this low-risk, low-cost game can be successful.

/GAF logic

Oh, don't tease.

 

[schuelma]

I think the Japanese recession hasn't gotten enough attention myself as a potential reason for down sales. It seems Nintendo trolling has taken greater precedent for that, much to the glee of people who know who they are. But Japan's recession is quite serious, deflation concerns have risen and consumer sentiment in Japan is down across the board.
Games cannot be exempt from this consumer downturn. The Japanese aren't buying as many consumer products as they used to, or if they do, they'll buy used or hell, pirate. I firmly believe this is temporary, though I don't want anyone to mistake this rant as a way to take blame off Nintendo and the Japanese game industry.

Agree, and I tried to bring this up earlier in the thread but you said it a lot better than I did. The days of the DS selling 100K a week, PSP selling 75K and Wii selling 45K a week seem to be over for now, irrespective of how great a job Nintendo is doing with 3rd parties. I'm not trying to deflect from Wii being down or from Nintendo failing to sustain momentum etc., but I think people need to realize that Wii isn't going to be hitting 2007 or 2008 averages no matter what software is brought out, at least not right now. I think a good benchmark for Nintendo post-MH Tri is for sales to be roughly even with PSP, i.e, 30K a week or a little less. I don't think anything more is at all realistic, when DS can't even break 50K a week.

 

[donny2112]

I think making the swine flu connection is strenuous and irrelevant.

http://www.angelfire.com/planet/donny2112/

I had been noting the beginning of the Swine Flu on the graphs, since it corresponded very well to a much larger than expected post-Golden Week drop for all the consoles and especially DS/PSP. I mainly wanted to know whether it was still going on to note it on the graph, and I figured you would be in a position to gauge that. Thanks for the response.

 

[cvxfreak]

http://www.angelfire.com/planet/donny2112/

I had been noting the beginning of the Swine Flu on the graphs, since it corresponded very well to a much larger than expected post-Golden Week drop for all the consoles and especially DS/PSP. I mainly wanted to know whether it was still going on to note it on the graph, and I figured you would be in a position to gauge that. Thanks for the response.

Yeah, don't worry about it.

I think swine flu is a bit of an unfortunate coincidence when trying to figure out that post-Golden Week drop. I mean, I guess it's worth noting that on top of the recession:

a) the number of tourists in Japan has dropped due to the high Yen and general recession
b) More Japanese went abroad in 2009 because the world around them became much less expensive (especially Korea; I said "wow" at how it would have been MUCH cheaper to spend a week in Seoul than to take a two-day trip within Japan)
c) Japan's population dropped

I guess H1N1 had an effect at some point and cannot totally be ignored, but it can't be lingering on at this point. I suppose that putting the above points in your graph wouldn't be so pretty now, wouldn't it?

 

[donny2112]

I suppose that putting the above points in your graph wouldn't be so pretty now, wouldn't it?

Do you think the recession started hitting harder right after Golden Week (or some other particular week), then? I could always change the "Swine Flu" range to a "Recession" range.

 

[cvxfreak]

Do you think the recession started hitting harder right after Golden Week (or some other particular week), then? I could always change the "Swine Flu" range to a "Recession" range.

I think it would make a drop more noticeable. Recessions would make holidays like Golden Week stand out that much more because it becomes a much more special occasion than in previous years. So, with holiday out of sight, spending would go back down.

With that in mind, it's possible that, with this logic, this year's winter holiday could actually be comparatively larger compared to rest-of-year performance compared to other years. But it also depends on what's released and what prices are, and if the economy hasn't deteriorated even further (which doesn't look like it'll happen).

 

[AranhaHunter]

WSR did really well, Wii HW boost was way less than I expected.

Does GAF think Rorona and Blazblue did good or as expected?

 

[Linkup]

Does GAF think Rorona and Blazblue did good or as expected?

That depends on whether I like 2d fighters, PS3, or low budget rpgs because I can spin this either way.

 

[charlequin]

I hope you're not referring to me.

Definitely not referring to you.

I don't think it will in the West, simply because we don't commute via public transportation like they do in Japan. Consoles will continue to rule for a long time in the West.

I honestly don't think that's as big a factor as some might make it out to be. Many Japanese people play their handhelds at home or at away-from-home locations that people in the US also visit.

Agree, and I tried to bring this up earlier in the thread but you said it a lot better than I did. The days of the DS selling 100K a week, PSP selling 75K and Wii selling 45K a week seem to be over for now, irrespective of how great a job Nintendo is doing with 3rd parties. I'm not trying to deflect from Wii being down or from Nintendo failing to sustain momentum etc., but I think people need to realize that Wii isn't going to be hitting 2007 or 2008 averages no matter what software is brought out, at least not right now. I think a good benchmark for Nintendo post-MH Tri is for sales to be roughly even with PSP, i.e, 30K a week or a little less. I don't think anything more is at all realistic, when DS can't even break 50K a week.

Sure. I'm not expecting 50k weeks from the Wii right now, but their current performance is still not good. If they were selling in like a 30-33k range every week I'd consider that to be quite a bit different from where they are now.

 

[schuelma]

Sure. I'm not expecting 50k weeks from the Wii right now, but their current performance is still not good. If they were selling in like a 30-33k range every week I'd consider that to be quite a bit different from where they are now.

Agreed, and like I said, I think the range you stated(essentially PSP numbers) should be a reasonable expectation.

 

[Busaiku]

Tomodachi Collection may very well be the next DS million seller.
I do wonder how much of its shipments it's selling through though.

Last week, it managed to sell well beyond its first shipment, and the legs have been really amazing.
Have any J-Gaffers noted how much stock is being carried by retailers?

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

How could the context not have been applied already? It's impossible to set any remotely reasonable expectations (and by extent, decide how much you want to ship) on a game without taking all this into consideration.

You don't set how much you ship by your expectations, you set it off depending on what is the retailers and users response.
The expectations you had when you decided to make the game mean shit to the expectations you have close to the release and the shipment you are going to send to retailers. You don't live in the past, you adapt your expectations and your shipment to the reality of the present market.

Do publishers really green-lit projects they expect to be bombs? I doubt that.

The expectations we get are not the expectations they have before giving green light to a game. We get how much they predict they will ship in a fiscal year, that's why we get expectations so close to launch instead of when a game is decided to be made, which is even way before its announced.

Its the market (the retailers and the users) that dictates your expectations and your shipment, not what were your expectations back then when you gave green-lit to a game.

 

[test_account]

Ah well, it's the game everyone identifies and is shown the system with, I think that makes it a bit of an anomaly rather than the other way around.

Ye, i think so too I wonder how the Wii hardware sales would have been if Wii Sports didnt excist. I would guess that Wii would still have sold the most consoles (compared to the PS3 and the Xbox 360) though, but i would guess that many people bought a Wii mainly because of Wii Sports (i think that Wii Sports is a pretty nice/cool game, so i understand that many people bought a Wii because of Wii Sports ).


By the way, does anyone have the 1st week's sales of Wii Sports attach ratio compared to the 1st week's sales of Wii Sports Resort attach ratio? I saw that someone mentioned something that Wii Sports Resort sold more than Wii Sports in the 1st day (or perhaps it was the 1st week?) earlier in this thread i think, but unfortunately i cant find this post again :\

I guess that Wii Sports had a higher attach ration in the 1st week of sales, but i am just wonder about the attach ratio stuff for fun. I think that Wii Sports Resort still had a pretty good first week of sales no matter how the attach ratio looks like And i am pretty sure that Wii Sports Resort will contunie to sell well for a relatively long time

 

[markatisu]

Sure. I'm not expecting 50k weeks from the Wii right now, but their current performance is still not good. If they were selling in like a 30-33k range every week I'd consider that to be quite a bit different from where they are now.

I don't think one game is going to cause the hardware to stabalize at almost 2x what it has been. The PSP and DS stay in the higher levels because they have games to support it, whats the next big or moderately big Wii game MH3? Its the same problem the PS3 has, it does great when it has a flood of games, when it does not we see where it goes.

 

[charlequin]

I don't think one game is going to cause the hardware to stabalize at almost 2x what it has been.

Errr, right. That was my point, six months ago or whatever when I was telling people that without a flow of many different strong software titles, the Wii would sink down to a way, way lower weekly average sales.

 

[Dalthien]

Errr, right. That was my point, six months ago or whatever when I was telling people that without a flow of many different strong software titles, the Wii would sink down to a way, way lower weekly average sales.

Yeah, except everything is down to a way, way lower weekly average compared to where they used to be (except for the systems which were already so low that they really didn't have any room to sink much further). The DS is way down from its regular 100k+ weeks. The PSP is way down from where it was for a long time after MHP2 hit. And the Wii is way down from where it was whilst it was still enjoying its extended launch boom and stock shortages.

Some of it is due to the software mix (or lack thereof) over the past year, but a big part of it is just the sorry state of the gaming industry in Japan right now.

The Wii peaked way sooner than the DSL.

The DS is an anomaly of absolutely epic proportions in Japan. It makes the PS2 look like a middling success. Comparing anything in Japan to the DS is just asinine.

 

[HK-47]

Yeah, except everything is down to a way, way lower weekly average compared to where they used to be (except for the systems which were already so low that they really didn't have any room to sink much further). The DS is way down from its regular 100k+ weeks. The PSP is way down from where it was for a long time after MHP2 hit. And the Wii is way down from where it was whilst it was still enjoying its extended launch boom and stock shortages.

The Wii peaked way sooner than the DSL.

 

[Vinnk]

About the Swine Flue thing, here is what I posted about that in an earlier thread (5-21-2009):

It is indeed pretty crazy here. I came back from a 3 week trip to the states to visit my family. When I left Japan everything was normal but when I cam back it was like something out of a horror movie. After my plane landed in Narita, doctors in full plastic body suits came onto the plane to examine all the passangers. When we were finally allowed to deplane we were all given face masks. At the airport there was almost no one not wearing one of these masks.

When I finally got back to my city I was told (by the local government) that I would be under house quarantine for 1 week. I was not to leave my house for any reason and was told I could not have guests (including my wife). I was not sick in any way and the systoms are supposed to show up within 72 hours, but to be safe, they made it a week.

When I was finally able to leave my house I went to do a bit of shopping. There are noticebly less shoppers around and a lot of them are wearing masks. I did not visit any game stores so I can not make any calls on that. But I do know parents are being very protective of their kids lately and telling them to stay out of large groups.

I do not think this is the only factor for the horrible sales, I think the fact that it is after golden week and that school sports festival season is right around the corner (at least in my area) would probably have equal if not greater impacts. (not to mention no one has any money)

But to answer the question, Yes there is a lot of swine flu panic here.

During that week sales were down across the board. Even taking into consideration that it was after Golden Week. My wife works in retail and she was telling me how there were so few customers in the store that week. My friend who sells cosmetics also said sales were dead. Even taking into account the time of year.

It was during the peak of the media hysteria. It really was "all flu all the time" on news channels and in the papers. Several schools in my city cancelled classes and one of my friend who just had a mild cold was told not to come to work for 3 days. Total Panic.

And then.. well.. not many people died. And even though there are far more cases in Japan now than that week, the media has run out of things to talk about and moved on to North Korea News and MJ. So even though the flu is technically more widespread and easily caught now, I see very few people wearing masks anymore and business is back to usual.

I never believed that the flu had a drastic effect on the game market but I am positive it had at least some impact. I think if someone could find nationwide sales reports for Japan (not just games) for those couple of weeks they would verify this.

 

[mujun]

Yeah, lasted about two weeks. Of course a day or two after people stopped caring it seemed like it had never happened.

Japan truly is a country of extremes.

 

[bttb]

.

 

[MoeB]

354,000 losers!

 

[MarzipaNMOS]

What a horrible week for wii software outside of Nintendo. Nothing but WSR, Wii Fit and MK in the top 30.

At least on the bright side, Infinite Space is still hanging in. I hope it won't take as long as freaking World Destruction to localize...

 

[cvxfreak]

18. [NDS] Pokemon Platinum (Pokemon) - 6,200 / 2,428,000

Going up due to the new movie coming out and the promotions they've been doing for the game lately.

 

[tetrisgrammaton]

no hardware bump for wii?

 

[Vinnk]

18. [NDS] Pokemon Platinum (Pokemon) - 6,200 / 2,428,000

Going up due to the new movie coming out and the promotions they've been doing for the game lately.

Yeah, did you see the big wi-fi promo they have going at McDonalds right now? I can't even got there now, its swarming with DS toting kids.

 

[AniHawk]

no hardware bump for wii?

Nintendo's gearing up for WiiHD in 2010 with new Zelda as a launch title.

 

[akilshohen]

Blazblue did good for both systems

 

[Nirolak]

Top 30 Titles:

360: 3
Wii: 3

I find this rather surprising.

 

[rockman zx]

05. [PS3] BlazBlue (Arc System Works) - 36,000 / NEW
06. [360] BlazBlue (Arc System Works) - 23,000 / NEW

4 days sales, not bad but I was expecting something more. I wonder if Kof will do better.

 

[Vinnk]

no hardware bump for wii?

No, and it is not too surprising. The game doesn't bring in any new audiance. I can't imagine there are many people who for two years have been like:

"Wii sports did not interest me. I have no need of a Wii... wait... it has PING-PONG now?! I'm in!"


If the new exclusive Monster Hunter game does not move hardware, then that is a problem. But this game appeals to the same audience as the last Wii Sports.

 

[cvxfreak]

Yeah, did you see the big wi-fi promo they have going at McDonalds right now? I can't even got there now, its swarming with DS toting kids.

Actually I did, and I actually went ahead and nabbed my old Japanese copy of Diamond to get that Jirachi since it's so easy and painless to do. Otherwise, I now use my DSi for coupons since McDonalds doesn't seem to have a coupon system for iPhones. :lol

 

[icecream]

21. [360] Time Leap (Prototype) - 5,600 / NEW

Guess it wasn't for everyone... that's even worse than Clannad.

 

[Awntawn]

Guess it wasn't for everyone... that's even worse than Clannad.

So much for Gemaga's number 1 anticipated game

 

[Nirolak]

So much for Gemaga's number 1 anticipated game

That was Dream Club C actually. However, I doubt that will do much better.

 

[Vinnk]

I find this rather surprising.

Really? If you were a Wii owner this week, what title would you be out buying? In my case it was WSR and some M+ attachments. I was not alone on this. It is a bit unfortunate that one title can dominate so completely though.

 

[Linkup]

Why is that unfortunate, is there really much else to buy on the system right now? I thought there where a few other wii games released the same day as WSR, but I guess not.

 

[Vinnk]

Why is that unfortunate, is there really much else to buy on the system right now? I thought there where a few other wii games release the same day as WSR, but I guess not.

It is unfortunate for 3rd parties that the Wii audience seems to be attracted to just a handfull of titles rather than giving some less well known ones a chance. I guess with the economy the way it is right now a lot of people only buy the "event games" (games that launch with much fanfare and are considered news).

 

[charlequin]

Yeah, except everything is down to a way, way lower weekly average compared to where they used to be

I know, right! That's such a good point! If only some people had, like, just discussed this issue in this very thread.

It is unfortunate for 3rd parties that the Wii audience seems to be attracted to just a handfull of titles rather than giving some less well known ones a chance. I guess with the economy the way it is right now a lot of people only buy the "event games" (games that launch with much fanfare and are considered news).

This issue is on display in the US too. With games more expensive, the economy shittier, and a variety of other factors all pushing people away from taking a chance on unknown games, we're seeing more polarization than we're used to, with big games still big but most new IPs and unknown titles performing very poorly.

 

[icecream]

That was Dream Club C actually. However, I doubt that will do much better.

For some reason, the otaku are really hung up on that game. I expect it to do at least 30Kish.

 

[Awntawn]

That was Dream Club C actually. However, I doubt that will do much better.

whoops, my bad D;

 

[Mockingbird]

no hardware bump for wii?

Not expected as people are waiting for the big, sexy black wii on 8/1. Oh and the monster Hunter 3 bundles as well.

 

[Dalthien]

I know, right! That's such a good point! If only some people had, like, just discussed this issue in this very thread.

Okay. Maybe I'm just not that bright then.

I guess I don't understand why you were congratulating yourself for predicting that the Wii would suffer a drop in weekly hardware sales if it didn't start getting a steady supply of a variety of quality titles, when in fact, the whole industry has suffered a drop in sales.

Maybe I missed your predictions at the same time about the PSP dropping below 30k per week, or the DS dropping below 50k per week. Do you believe the DS and PSP are also suffering the same software droughts as the Wii? I'm just confused by the self-congratulations when the basis of your prediction is really only a minor cause of the drop that the whole industry is experiencing.

 

[charlequin]

Okay. Maybe I'm just not that bright then.

I guess I don't understand why you were congratulating yourself for predicting that the Wii would suffer a drop in weekly hardware sales if it didn't start getting a steady supply of a variety of quality titles, when in fact, the whole industry has suffered a drop in sales.

Because the Wii has dropped in sales relative to the other systems as well as in terms of absolute units; compare to, say, a year ago, when Wii was outselling the DS, selling almost as much as the PSP, and beating the PS3 and 360 combined by a ratio of 3:1. I honestly don't see what's confusing about that idea.

 

[Dalthien]

Because the Wii has dropped in sales relative to the other systems as well as in terms of absolute units; compare to, say, a year ago, when Wii was outselling the DS, selling almost as much as the PSP, and beating the PS3 and 360 combined by a ratio of 3:1. I honestly don't see what's confusing about that idea.

I'm not sure when you actually made the prediction, but here are your two comments in this thread.

I'm kind of tempted to go back and dig up some of those posts from like eight months ago or whatever, where I asserted that Nintendo should try to actually secure some third-party support if they didn't want to see their console start to tank, and everyone patiently explained to me how the strength of Nintendo's first party software would ensure that that could never happen. :lol

Errr, right. That was my point, six months ago or whatever when I was telling people that without a flow of many different strong software titles, the Wii would sink down to a way, way lower weekly average sales.

I was just taking you at your word, which is why I was wondering what all the self-congratulation was about.

Just grabbing a couple of weeks at beginning of November and beginning of January,

Eight months ago:

DS - 113k
PSP - 44k
Wii - 25k
PS3 + 360 - 30k

Six months ago:

DS - 102k
PSP - 60k
Wii - 41k
PS3 + 360 - 39k


Today:

DS - 45k
PSP - 27k
Wii - 21k
PS3 + 360 - 15k


So please stop pulling numbers out of your ass. The Wii has held up every bit as well as the others in terms of their ratios based on the timelines that you gave for your predictions. The entire industry is taking a beating in Japan right now, regardless of where the 3rd-party efforts are going.

"I honestly don't see what's confusing about that idea."

 

[ThatObviousUser]

Platinum has sold 2.5 mil in Japan alone? O_O

Long-sleeves Pearl is pleased.

 

[Naruto]

Week before Brain Training's release: 26,583
Week of Brain Training's release: 29,808
Average of five weeks after Brain Training's release: 34,311

A baseline increase is much more important than a bump on the week of release. The actual bump this week is not great, but whether it goes up again next week and stays increased is the important impact for Wii hardware, in my opinion.



Absolutely.



I hope you're not referring to me. I've probably said that Nintendo's software is the best chance to consistently keep the sales up, but I know I would've never said that "Nintendo's first party software would ensure that that could never happen."

Never thought about that. A smart observation.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

I guess it shouldn't really be a big surprise that WSR's biggest market is existing Wii owners.

I'm kind of tempted to go back and dig up some of those posts from like eight months ago or whatever, where I asserted that Nintendo should try to actually secure some third-party support if they didn't want to see their console start to tank, and everyone patiently explained to me how the strength of Nintendo's first party software would ensure that that could never happen. :lol

Perhaps it is the case that Nintendo's first party software would ensure that could never happen. They just... failed to release even that!

4 days sales, not bad but I was expecting something more. I wonder if Kof will do better.

I wouldn't bet much on it. Looking at King of Fighters releases over the last decade-ish I see two titles that had better first weeks than 30K. One was one of the many PS2 releases. The other was the sole GBA release, with more days of availability in the first week than average.