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[Dragona Akehi]

Dichromacy?

But he's been around long enough to know who mods or admins are just by references.

I'm sticking to my answer.

 

[Moor-Angol]

So far it's outperforming both 2007 and 2008. Week 49 will be huge for Wii and the one that should give a clear advantage over PS3. New Super Mario Bros. Wii, PokePark Wii, Samurai Warriors 3 with hardware and controller bundles.

week 51 and 52 will stop that advantage...

 

[kswiston]

Wii performance after price cut

week	 2007	  2008	  2009
 40	 20.704	 25.330	 35.392
 41	 20.575	 22.877	 30.741
 42	 24.932	 26.024	 29.965
 43	 27.502	 24.292	 25.917
 44	 37.617	 23.123	 28.888
 45	 34.546	 24.726	 31.810
 46	 36.230	 26.787	
 47	 54.362	 35.298	
 48	 74.764	 49.848	
 49	115.057	 56.702	
 50	170.558	 91.641	
 51	232.907	131.054	
 52	152.209	134.958

So far it's outperforming both 2007 and 2008. Week 49 will be huge for Wii and the one that should give a clear advantage over PS3. New Super Mario Bros. Wii, PokePark Wii, Samurai Warriors 3 with hardware and controller bundles.

Eh. I don't think that starting your weekly Wii sales comparison from the week of the Wii's price cut is a good way to compare potential holiday hardware sales this year vs 2007/2008. You say that 2009 is up over 2007, but that was only for three weeks following the price cut. If you cut out the week of and the week after the 2009 price cut, 2007 hardware sales are outperforming 2009. We need 2-3 couple more weeks to really gauge how Wii will perform through the holiday season this year.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Hey Josh, while I do love reading the "if X stopped selling and Y continued at this week's rate" comparisons, I was wondering if you could add another comparison scheme to the mix, like this

"If X (lower installed base) and Y (higher installed base) continued selling at this week's rate, X would catch up in..."

I guess that would be a more interesting comparison me thinks.

Don't I include that when it's actually possible? Like PSP/DS and PS3/Wii this week. However, for X360/PS3 this week it's not possible, because if this week continues X360 will just get more behind each week on to infinity. Or do I misunderstand what you mean?

With Regards to CB, given the low initial shipment numbers, is SE supporting the game with decent advertising in Japan, or is it being sent out to die?

They seem to be doing some advertising, but I've kinda worried about it being sent to die ever since we learned it would be launching right between a new FF on Japan's most popular system ever and a new mainline FF.

People know what CC is all about and they also know that it´s not going to change.

Ehh, I dunno. The original CC didn't do much for me (as a single player) so I didn't check out the DS games in its mold. My Life as a King, My Life as a Darkord, and Crystal Bearers have redefined CC as something less straightforward to me, though.

 

[apujanata]

If you're going to admit that the only reason you came here was to troll... well then: ta-ta!

Are you giving him one month ban ? If yes, then he can only post on Dec 13, right about time for official first week # of NSMB Wii. Maybe you can just extend the ban to until AFTER first week #, say Dec 20 ? That way, he will not be able to troll as planned.

 

[schuelma]

Well, I think duckroll basically took the post I was going to make this morning (and a post I've basically made before in this thread).

Essentially, I think SE decided with all their hearts to make a game that appeals to that fickle and unpredictable "casual Wii userbase" and in the process lost any support it might have had from traditional RPG players or traditional Crystal Chronicles players.

I think in this case the reverse is true from the usual explanation- its not the Wii core audience to blame, its SE for moving away from that audience.

Now, you can partly blame Nintendo for creating a situation where someone like SE thinks its a better idea to go the casual, 15 hour gameplay its not an RPG look Bon Jovi route, but that's only partly an excuse- other third parties have had at least modest success with well known IP's retaining traditional gameplay.

As an aside, I think SW3 will start off a bit lower than the PS3 Musou entries, but won't be a complete embarrassment or anything. And I think Graces is going to do very well.

 

[kay]

If you've actually read the M-C threads, everyone was fairly sure that Crystal Bearers would bomb and bomb hard.

everyone?

 

[duckroll]

everyone?

:lol

 

[ethelred]

everyone?

In his defense, Crystal Bearers will probably hit 350k sooner than The Conduit will take to hit 3 million.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

everyone?

Ouch! First The Conduit, now FFCC:CB - not a good streak so far, donny! ;-)

 

[slaughterking]

[PSP] Hexyz Force - 7,000 (38%)

Hm, that's not so bad. The sell-through is low, but it'll have a better first week than Riviera and KitN -- that actually is a pretty bad thing when I'm thinking about it. :I
Can't find any other sales data of Sting games on garaph other than the Dept. Heaven games, though.

 

[ccbfan]

I think almost everyone expect CB to bomb but I don't think anyone expected to bomb this bad.

I mean I was thinking like 40-50K first day and 70-80 for the week.

But holy dear God, 26K? Even the most pessimistic predictions wasn't this low. It gonna be half of the average prediction in this topic. So while people expected it to bomb, nobody expected it to uber bomb.

 

[Rock_Man]

It's getting dark...

 

[schuelma]

Wait, did I miss J-League PSP first day sales somewhere? Didn't it come out?

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Wait, did I miss J-League PSP first day sales somewhere? Didn't it come out?

Sakatsuku = J-League Pro Soccer Club o Tsukurou! 6: Pride of J

 

[schuelma]

Sakatsuku = J-League Pro Soccer Club o Tsukurou! 6: Pride of J

I had a feeling that was the case. I shall meekly sit in the corner now.

 

[Monty Mole]

It's getting dark...

We're getting nearer to the top of the river.

 

[Chris1964]

Eh. I don't think that starting your weekly Wii sales comparison from the week of the Wii's price cut is a good way to compare potential holiday hardware sales this year vs 2007/2008. You say that 2009 is up over 2007, but that was only for three weeks following the price cut. If you cut out the week of and the week after the 2009 price cut, 2007 hardware sales are outperforming 2009. We need 2-3 couple more weeks to really gauge how Wii will perform through the holiday season this year.

I posted every previous year of the Wii, besides the 5 last weeks of 2006 (launch). This doesn't mean that it will outperform every one of them. But If you want a prediction December 2009 will outperform December 2008 by a good margin and will be closer to December 2007.

 

[Chris1964]

I think almost everyone expect CB to bomb but I don't think anyone expected to bomb this bad.

Are you sure? Check this week predictions.

 

[schuelma]

But If you want a prediction December 2009 will outperform December 2008 by a good margin and will be closer to December 2007.

Agreed. I would be shocked if December is under 500K, honestly.

 

[Kandinsky]

I think almost everyone expect CB to bomb but I don't think anyone expected to bomb this bad.

I mean I was thinking like 40-50K first day and 70-80 for the week.

But holy dear God, 26K? Even the most pessimistic predictions wasn't this low. It gonna be half of the average prediction in this topic. So while people expected it to bomb, nobody expected it to uber bomb.

I predicted 25k first week and 75 lifetime lol

 

[duckroll]

I predicted 25k first week and 75 lifetime lol

You probably nailed the lifetime sales.

 

[schuelma]

week 51 and 52 will stop that advantage...

Look again at his 2007 and 2008 numbers- We can probably reasonably expect Wii to do 150K or so both weeks..so PS3 will have to have 2 weeks better than the Slim launch in a row to even beat the Wii for those 2 weeks.

 

[Chris1964]

Moor-Angol is sure that PS3 will outperform Wii this year and expects insane numbers from PS3 this holiday season (comparing to PS3 previous years). Many disagree and many agree with him. Time will show who is right and who is wrong.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Moor-Angol is sure that PS3 will outperform Wii this year and expects insane numbers from PS3 this holiday season (comparing to PS3 previous years). Many disagree and many agree with him. Time will show who is right and who is wrong.

Seeing the interest on the Wii-PS3 YTD battle and that the FFXIII week there's nothing else, I think we should have the prediction set that week be FFXIII first day, FFXIII first week, PS3 week, Wii week. Should be fun.

Oh, and thanks for the input (to schuelma too!), we'll skip next week predictions and return for 11/26 releases.

 

[schuelma]

Seeing the interest on the Wii-PS3 YTD battle and that the FFXIII week there's nothing else, I think we should have the prediction set that week be FFXIII first day, FFXIII first week, PS3 week, Wii week. Should be fun.

Sounds like fun. Hell I might just start predicting the weekly sales for December weeks just for the hell of it!

 

[Souldriver]

Look again at his 2007 and 2008 numbers- We can probably reasonably expect Wii to do 150K or so both weeks..so PS3 will have to have 2 weeks better than the Slim launch in a row to even beat the Wii for those 2 weeks.

I'm having a problem with all the "typically Wii (games) perform this well/get a boost that week/should do great/is a system seller/..." talk. I mean, if there's one thing that's evident at this point, is that the Wii's situation looks barren, and that you can't just look at the past 2 years to predict how it's going to do.

Same thing is true for the PS3. You can graduately see throughout the following MC threads that the expectations are starting to turn. First many people said the PS3s software line-up had nothing for the rest of the year except FFXIII, and that the Wii has a steady stream of possible hits. Throughout the weeks this has changed to the PS3 having a steady stream of titles that performs pretty OK and keep the hardware numbers high, and the Wii software being absolutely down the shitter with only shiny beacon of light being NSMBW. Another example is FF:CCCB. Sure, expectations were low, but I do remember how week after week people still have to adjust their predictions down. I recall reading predictions of 100k first week. Now, not so much.

People should be more careful when predicting stuff (or let me rephrase that: realize predicting is more difficult than usual), especially when it's about the "Wii doing fine" and "PS3 leveling off". Especially the official Gaf Chart Analysts™ still seem to view the Wii in a more positive light than I do. Or at least, that's what I notice. They all have a great track record at predicting sales, but the past few weeks are the first time I'm starting to doubt some of those predictions.

 

[Chris1964]

Seeing the interest on the Wii-PS3 YTD battle and that the FFXIII week there's nothing else, I think we should have the prediction set that week be FFXIII first day, FFXIII first week, PS3 week, Wii week. Should be fun.

Nope, you are wrong. There is a total of 10 budget re-releases of Gundam for almost every console. Only DS managed to escape from these high profile holiday releases of Bandai.

But be ready to expect many predictions for this week and some of them completely out of reality.

 

[schuelma]

I'm having a problem with all the "typically Wii (games) perform this well/get a boost that week/should do great/is a system seller/..." talk. I mean, if there's one thing that's evident at this point, is that the Wii's situation looks barren, and that you can't just look at the past 2 years to predict how it's going to do.

Same thing is true for the PS3. You can graduately see throughout the following MC threads that the expectations are starting to turn. First many people said the PS3s software line-up had nothing for the rest of the year except XIII, and that the Wii has a steady stream of possible hits. Throughout the weeks this has changed to the PS3 having a steady stream of titles that performs pretty OK and keep the hardware numbers high, and the Wii software being absolutely down the shitter with only shiny beacon of light being NSMBW. Another example is FF:CCCB. Sure, expectations were low, but I do remember how week after week people still have to adjust their predictions down. I recall reading predictions of 100k first week. Now, not so much.

People should be more careful when predicting stuff (or let me rephrase that: realize predicting is more difficult than usual), especially when it's about the "Wii doing fine" and "PS3 leveling off". Especially the official Gaf Chart Analysts™ still seem to view the Wii in a more positive light than I do. Or at least, that's what I notice. They all have a great track record at predicting sales, but the past few weeks are the first time I'm starting to doubt some of those predictions.

A few points

1- Just speaking for myself personally, I have been way off on the PS3 since the Slim. 100%. I fully admit that. And I'm also no expert- this is a fun hobby for me and I love making predictions and seeing how they turn out. In contrast to a lot of other debates on this board, eventually we get real numbers and you are either proven correct or proven a fool.

2- I think most of us were caught by surprise with the PS3 but I think there is a pretty reasonable explanation- when, for nearly 3 years, every single price cut or new model or big game has always quickly led back to 10K sales, and that is the only data we had, I can see why many were very skeptical. Conversely, Wii probably has gotten more of the benefit of the doubt because it generally has a 3 year record of relative success.

3- I do disagree that this thread has been bullish on the Wii lately. I mean, we were predicting a big Wii downfall back to January when sales quickly fell. No one had really high expectations for the price drop IIRC.

4- Regarding this holiday, I think there is a very reasonable expectation of success re: Wii.

First of all, and others have made this point in this very thread, since the price cut Wii hardware sales are actually above last years at this point and relatively even with 2007. People forget that Octoberish has always represented a low point for Wii sales. So I don't buy the argument that Wii is doing horrible now and that means it won't do well this holiday. That is simply inaccurate.

Second, its not really a matter of opinion that it has its strongest holiday lineup yet this year. That's just a fact. NSMB Wii might not pull a Wii Fit but it surely will do more than Animal Crossing, and Tales of Graces and SW3 are huge improvements over past 3rd party lineups for Dec.

 

[Chris1964]

People should be more careful when predicting stuff (or let me rephrase that: realize predicting is more difficult than usual), especially when it's about the "Wii doing fine" and "PS3 leveling off". Especially the official Gaf Chart Analysts™ still seem to view the Wii in a more positive light than I do. Or at least, that's what I notice. They all have a great track record at predicting sales, but the past few weeks are the first time I'm starting to doubt some of those predictions.

If you find me one post saying "Wii doing fine" in Japan I'll agree with you.

 

[LiquidMetal14]

Dichromacy?

Katamari Damacy?

 

[Elios83]

Look again at his 2007 and 2008 numbers- We can probably reasonably expect Wii to do 150K or so both weeks..so PS3 will have to have 2 weeks better than the Slim launch in a row to even beat the Wii for those 2 weeks.

Not that difficult, things have changed, FFXIII is the biggest release of the year (except for DQIX and Pokemon maybe),it has a bundle and it's in the peak season for sales.
I wouldn't be suprised at all if PS3 did 200k during the FFXIII week launch and 150k during the next christmas week.
Most analysts (Famistu and MC) expect a 500k December for PS3 in Japan.

 

[charlequin]

I mean, I totally agree if we're talking about say, a game like Arc Rise Fantasia. It's a RPG I'm personally very interested in, because it's a traditional RPG, with an interesting turn based battle system, and it has a good amount of interesting staff on it. It didn't sell well at all, because MMV is a failure in Japan. But if it had been a better publisher, and possibly if it was on another platform, it might have sold better.

But with Crystal Bearers, there's none of that. I'm not even interested in the game. As a traditional gamer, I don't even feel it is a title I would buy on ANY platform, especially with the staff behind the game.

This is precisely how I feel. CC was marketed fine; it's just a polished turd that almost no one would actually really want to play. It'd be a Code Age Commanders or Bouncer type game if it came out on the PS2.

I don't completely accept this either.

Like you, I don't completely accept this, but I do think it's an element of both the FF brand and the CC sub-brand suffering from terrible management. As of, say, 2004, the addition of "Final Fantasy" on a game package was an active benefit and would produce, I'd say, a minimum of 200k extra sales just upfront; CC as a subseries of that had its own cachet with whoever the people who bought the first GCN entry were. I don't think this game is selling badly because of what it's called (like, it wouldn't do better if it were called Bon Jovi's Crystal Adventure) but I do think that both FF and CC have exhausted their brand pull so effectively that neither helped leverage this crap game into selling better the way they once would have.

The perception of a piece of hardware is often directly related to the perception of the actual software which is on it. If the Wii suffers from a perception problem that there aren't many core games on it targeted at young adults, it would be because that is mostly true. If there is a huge influx of games which target that group of consumers, and they actually successfully appeal to to that group, then the perception of the hardware will change because of the software.

The PSP is a good example of this, actually. MHP didn't fail in the marketplace because the PSP hadn't established a market for teenagers who play local multiplayer with each other; it succeeded (because people were interested in what it had to offer) and built that market.

There isn't inherently any reason that that couldn't happen with Wii (although the likelihood certainly continues to go down over time) but a game like FF:CC:TCB isn't going to do it.

I think almost everyone expect CB to bomb but I don't think anyone expected to bomb this bad.

I did!

2- I think most of us were caught by surprise with the PS3 but I think there is a pretty reasonable explanation- when, for nearly 3 years, every single price cut or new model or big game has always quickly led back to 10K sales, and that is the only data we had, I can see why many were very skeptical.

Right. I think the PS3 has pretty much managed to thread a previously-unthreaded needle here: every time a system has launched to failure-level sales due to being overpriced before, it didn't have the degree of investment or the prearranged software support (or the luck of being half of an HD-console alliance to screw over the Wii) that the PS3 enjoyed. Once they were able to fire Kutaragi, Sony got people in place who could see what was weak about the PS3 (terrible price, too big) and what was strong about it (software that people would like to play; good media capabilities; the still relatively appealing "Playstation" name), dropped the former and played up the latter.

More than anything else, I think this really tells us that the "fundamentals" on the PS3 business were strong but the launch price really was that idiotic of a choice, and that people are now rewarding Sony for recognizing that.

3- I do disagree that this thread has been bullish on the Wii lately.

I certainly haven't. :lol

 

[schuelma]

I wouldn't be suprised at all if PS3 did 200k during the FFXIII week launch and 150k during the next christmas week.
Most analysts (Famistu and MC) expect a 500k December for PS3 in Japan.

We'll see, and those numbers are probably somewhat realistic. But again, the Wii in those 2 weeks will probably get pretty close to those numbers and will probably have sold more in the first 2 weeks of the month.

 

[Souldriver]

If you find me one post saying "Wii doing fine" in Japan I'll agree with you.

I'm talking about people predicting Wii will do fine until the rest of the year. Few weeks ago people were sure PS3 would never get a higher YTD than Wii, now it's an uncertainty. Yet, I still recall people being confident in the fact that the Wii will do gangbusters this holiday season, "because it has done so the previous years". And I don't think that's smart reasoning at this point.

I'm not saying the Wii will crash and burn, nor do I want it to obviously, but I just wanted to say that this is the first time in eh..ever that I'm not really relying on the Gaf Analysts to tell me how sales will go from here on out.

4- Regarding this holiday, I think there is a very reasonable expectation of success re: Wii.

First of all, and others have made this point in this very thread, since the price cut Wii hardware sales are actually above last years at this point and relatively even with 2007. People forget that Octoberish has always represented a low point for Wii sales. So I don't buy the argument that Wii is doing horrible now and that means it won't do well this holiday. That is simply inaccurate.

Second, its not really a matter of opinion that it has its strongest holiday lineup yet this year. That's just a fact. NSMB Wii might not pull a Wii Fit but it surely will do more than Animal Crossing, and Tales of Graces and SW3 are huge improvements over past 3rd party lineups for Dec.

But you can't just look at the Wii in a vacuum. The market looks different. The PS3 is on a roll, the Wii is not the leading console in sales on a weekly basis. So just saying it'll do just as good/better than previous years because it has 1 potentially big title, is not smart imo.

3- I do disagree that this thread has been bullish on the Wii lately. I mean, we were predicting a big Wii downfall back to January when sales quickly fell. No one had really high expectations for the price drop IIRC.

Perhaps it's just me singling out the rare comments that did predict high Wii sales after the price drop, or when Wii software are released, because they catch my attention for being so optimistic without real reason. There is just too much high hope being translated in actual predictions. I remember the people saying the PS3slim would keep on trucking were -perhaps not ridiculed- but being met with disbelieve. And even with all the lower adjusted predictions for the Wii, most people still were/are a bit too optimistic. Everyone expected the Wii price drop to have small impact, but it had an even smaller impact than most people predicted. I could go through every MC thread from the past 4 months and give a few examples, but off course that would be a small unrepresentative selection of quotes.


I don't know, I'm simply speaking from the gut without the backing of actual numbers of quotes, I realize that. I'll just reiterate that I wanted to point out that this is the first time ever that I don't have blind confidence in Gaf to predict sales.

 

[schuelma]

Yet, I still recall people being confident in the fact that the Wii will do gangbusters this holiday season, "because it has done so the previous years". And I don't think that's smart reasoning at this point.
.

I already answered this in my previous post, but there is some pretty logical reasoning for that assumption. Your main point, and correct me if I am wrong, is that the Wii has lost all momentum and is doing worse than ever, hence it is not realistic to expect similar holiday sales this year. However, that point isn't correct. Certainly overall this year Wii is way behind, but since the price cut it has been tracking similarly if not higher than years past.

But you can't just look at the Wii in a vacuum. The market looks different. The PS3 is on a roll, the Wii is not the leading console in sales on a weekly basis. So just saying it'll do just as good/better than previous years because it has 1 potentially big title, is not smart imo.

I really don't think the PS3 is going to have that much of an impact on Wii sales and vice versa. This has been said countless times before, but the market isn't split into consoles and handhelds. It just isn't. While PS3 is up, DS is down from last year at this time. PSP is down overall this more than the Wii IIRC. Does that mean Wii has less competition now?

And I think you're underestimating the Wii's Dec. lineup. I'll repeat what I've said- last year, the Wii's biggest game for the entire month was Taiko Wii. That's it. This year, it has NSMB Wii, Pikachu, ToG, and SW3. It also has a lower price. That is more than "potentially one big title". That's a significantly better lineup than last year and I would argue overall a better lineup than 2007.

 

[markatisu]

I don't know, I'm simply speaking from the gut without the backing of actual numbers of quotes, I realize that. I'll just reiterate that I wanted to point out that this is the first time ever that I don't have blind confidence in Gaf to predict sales.

Why would you ever have blind confidence in GAF in regards to sales-age? Especially this gen when more often then not a large chunk of GAF is off the mark

 

[Chris1964]

I'm talking about people predicting Wii will do fine until the rest of the year. Few weeks ago people were sure PS3 would never get a higher YTD than Wii, now it's an uncertainty. Yet, I still recall people being confident in the fact that the Wii will do gangbusters this holiday season, "because it has done so the previous years". And I don't think that's smart reasoning at this point.

The last holiday season was pathetic for Wii hardware and software wise.
I was sure PS3 would never get a higher YTD than Wii and still have this opinion. And if by gangbusters you mean Wii having a much better december than 2008 and closer to 2007 I'm there too. Good December doesn't mean Wii has recovered and everything will be fine from now on.

 

[Souldriver]

Why would you ever have blind confidence in GAF in regards to sales-age? Especially this gen when more often then not a large chunk of GAF is off the mark

I say "gaf" because I don't want to give names, as if I'm specifically calling them out. But there are a few regulars here that have enough data and insight to give great predictions and point-of-views about sales.

I really don't think the PS3 is going to have that much of an impact on Wii sales and vice versa. This has been said countless times before, but the market isn't split into consoles and handhelds. It just isn't. While PS3 is up, DS is down from last year at this time. PSP is down overall this more than the Wii IIRC. Does that mean Wii has less competition now?

That's another way of looking at it off course. Perhaps I'm looking at the Wii and PS3 too much as substitutes for each other, instead of complementary. But my gut feeling tells me that -especially in japan- a good selling PS3 is bad for the Wii. Third parties will run back to Sony in no time, and it's not like Wii's third party support is great as it is now either...

 

[schuelma]

Oh and Souldriver I would add one more point- if the PS3's resurgence was having that great of an impact on Wii sales, wouldn't Wii sales right now be insanely low instead of being being higher week to week right now?

 

[schuelma]

Good December doesn't mean Wii has recovered and everything will be fine from now on.

Right. If by the third week of January sales are dropping into the 20K range again, then Nintendo is in big big trouble, especially since the 2010 lineup so far looks very barren.

 

[Elios83]

We'll see, and those numbers are probably somewhat realistic. But again, the Wii in those 2 weeks will probably get pretty close to those numbers and will probably have sold more in the first 2 weeks of the month.

Who knows really, fact is the Wii has considerably underperformed for all 2009. The momentum it had has been lost and the price cut failed to recover it in Japan.
The assumption that in December they will still sell the same amount they did in 2008 and 2007 is still a possibility but the likelihood decreses each week it's getting outsold by the PS3.

 

[schuelma]

Who knows really, fact is the Wii has considerably underperformed for all 2009. The momentum it had has been lost and the price cut failed to recover it in Japan.
The assumption that in December they will still sell the same amount they did in 2008 and 2007 is still a possibility but the likelihood decreses each week it's getting outsold by the PS3.

I apologize to everyone else for repeating this but again:

Right now, since the price cut, the Wii is selling better than it did in 2008 and I believe on par with what it did in 2007. It is doing that in spite of the PS3 doing very well.

 

[Chris1964]

Third parties will run back to Sony in no time, and it's not like Wii's third party support is great as it is now either...

Now what does this mean? Aren't third parties already with Sony? (you compare of course Wii to PS3). Third parties in Japan and the rest of the world put most of the home console support to PS3. Unless you expect them to abandon DS and PSP in favor of PS3.

 

[schuelma]

Now what does this mean? Aren't third parties already with Sony? (you compare of course Wii to PS3). Third parties in Japan and the rest of the world put most of the home console support to PS3. Unless you expect them to abandon DS and PSP in favor of PS3.

Yeah. I tried rather clumsily to make this point the other day- barring a true PSP type resurgence over many months, I don't think much is going to change third party wise. PS3 already gets a lot of support as it is and it certainly won't lose any of it. By the same token the few franchises that Wii has will probably stay there, and the portables aren't going to lose anything.

 

[Souldriver]

I apologize to everyone else for repeating this but again:

Right now, since the price cut, the Wii is selling better than it did in 2008 and I believe on par with what it did in 2007. It is doing that in spite of the PS3 doing very well.

One just got a price drop, the other a redesign and a big price-drop. Off course both will do "better than normal" for now. And the holiday season is upon us, so rising sales are a given. But do you expect both the Wii and the PS3 will keep on trucking next to each other like they're doing now? I sure as hell don't. In the long run, one of them is going to take the lead, and steal all the sunshine/developer support/popularity. And right now (and I know this is too soon to tell), I would say PS3 has the best chances of doing so.

Off course the Wii won't crash and burn. It has already sold more than its predecessors . But it might end up dieing prematurely and become the "niche" platform on the market. And given the insane potential this console has/had, that would be a failure of epic proportions imo.

Now what does this mean? Aren't third parties already with Sony? (you compare of course Wii to PS3). Third parties in Japan and the rest of the world put most of the home console support to PS3. Unless you expect them to abandon DS and PSP in favor of PS3.

It sure as hell won't get better for Wii, which I pointed out earlier. It's my opinion that third parties can only be dragged kicking and screaming towards Wii support because of an insanely high install base and the failure of other consoles. Cause, like you said already, non of the third parties like to develop for the Wii. Now if the Wii falls in a slump, and the PS3 (HD twins) start to perform normal or good, yeah.... Wii's software lineup will look even more barren.

 

[schuelma]

But do you expect both the Wii and the PS3 will keep on trucking next to each other like they're doing now? I sure as hell don't. In the long run, one of them is going to take the lead, and steal all the sunshine/developer support/popularity. And right now (and I know this is too soon to tell), I would say PS3 has the best chances of doing so.
.

I think they could. The Wii trucked along with the DS and PSP most of last year just fine.

Also, I really think you're missing the big picture here in regards to support. PS3 already gets more support than Wii and it gets significantly less than the handhelds. Unless the PS3 sells hardware and software consistent with the handhelds nothing is going to change. The only possible shift I see is that lower budget more niche titles might come to PS3 instead of the Wii, but that's about it.

I mean, the Wii has dominated the PS3 for almost three years and nothing much has changed- its clear that for a variety of reasons the Wii is never going to get a lot of strong third party support, so your whole "one console to rule them all" argument is already moot.

 

[Chris1964]

In the long run, one of them is going to take the lead, and steal all the sunshine/developer support/popularity. And right now (and I know this is too soon to tell), I would say PS3 has the best chances of doing so.

You are saying the same thing again. PS3 will steal developer support from who? Wii? How can it steal something it already has?

 

[jeremy1456]

One just got a price drop, the other a redesign and a big price-drop. Off course both will do "better than normal" for now. And the holiday season is upon us, so rising sales are a given. But do you expect both the Wii and the PS3 will keep on trucking next to each other like they're doing now? I sure as hell don't. In the long run, one of them is going to take the lead, and steal all the sunshine/developer support/popularity. And right now (and I know this is too soon to tell), I would say PS3 has the best chances of doing so.

How can you steal developer support if you already have it?

 

[Durante]

Last week I actually thought GAF was being too negative on CC:CB. But I was also under the (apparently mistaken) impression that it was still some kind of ARPG.