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[vicissitudes]

Good God grieve. First it was "retarded", now it's "raped". Okay, I'm sorry, from now on in MC threads I will only use terms which are approved for a G rating under MPAA standards. I apologize if I have hurt your sensitive feelings.

:lol :lol

Sales are a sensitive topic for some people.

 

[m3k]

Good God grieve. First it was "retarded", now it's "raped". Okay, I'm sorry, from now on in MC threads I will only use terms which are approved for a G rating under MPAA standards. I apologize if I have hurt your sensitive feelings.

i didnt realise people still used that term in regards to video games anymore ... my sensitive feelings weren't hurt, i wont bother commenting on anyones language on this board ever again

 

[onken]

Takao takes the crown from Chris1964 3 weeks of dominance!


No one got anything right, lol.

Past Predictions Results:
11/23-11/29 Predictions Results
11/9-11/15 Predictions Results
11/2-11/8 Predictions Results

lol

do people still say these things?

Apparently so.

 

[[Nintex]]

I like being immature: I think the Wii will rape the PS3 this holiday season.

Finally things worked for Nintendo and all they needed to do was be creative: copy something they had already done that worked. Who said the Japanese market was harder to please than the American one?

Spoiler

=P

All Nintendo needed to do was to release a game. Hell it didn't even have to be 'innovative' and new, just a good/great/awesome/GOTY or whatever was enough to bring the Wii back on top. I wonder if they understand this and will have more games for the system next year.

Galaxy 2,Vitality Sensor, Metroid, Zelda etc. that may seem like a bit much but the Wii train wouldn't slow down ever if they bombarded it with good software. Especially when they release stuff like Reginleiv as icing on the cake too.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Title - FW/FD/FD sell-through/FD Shipment

1.NSMBW　937000　422000　51% 827,000
2.PSP2　285000　202000　66% 306,000
3.GvsGN+　238000　170000　61% 279,000
4.SM3　127000　55000(reg)　57% 96,000　23000(LE)　69% 33,000
7.Pokepark　57000
8.AC2 PS3　56000　28000　43% 65,000
10.Tokimemo 4　47000　28000
12.Pocket Pro 12　34000　23000　15% 153,000
14.AC2 360　28000　21000　48% 44,000
15.Kamen Rider　23000　8600　33% 26,000
16.Bayblade DS　22000　3700　10% 37,000
19.Stitch　20000　8300　23% 36,000
22.Kaiju Busters　16000　10000　31% 32,000
29.Cross Treasures　7500　6000　29% 21,000

Added the shipment, now some comments:
- Lots of titles either had a 2nd shipment in the weekend or they are really scarce.
- Mario specifically, did 110k more than its 1st shipment
- PSP2 start is lower than PSP1, 285k vs 329k. It was also down on 1st day (93%) but the weekend was worse too and the week is 87% of PSP1.
Still, miles ahead anything else Phantasy Star related. Since 2000, the best start for a Phantasy Star title not being PSP1 and PSP2 is PS Universe on PS2 with 129k.
- GvsGN+ is creepily similar to GvsG, 238k vs 241k. It didn't have a better weekend though, it was actually ahead by 1st day, 170k vs 160k, but falls behind in the weekend.
Right in the middle of the arcade to game Gundam conversions, which on PS-PS2-PSP do from 150k to 350k.
- Sengoku Musou 3 either had a 2nd shipment or there's only 2000 units left.
Other than that, its the historical low for any mainline Musou. Its lower than every Shin Sangoku Musou, Sengoku Musou, Orochi Musou and Gundam Musou.
Its also lower than quite a few spinoffs, ports and expansions like Multi Raid, Gundam Musou 1 PS2, Sengoku Musou 1 and 2 Empires editions, Shin Sangoku Musou 2, 3 and 4 Mushouden...
- Not sure what to say about Pokemon. It was a Saturday release so no first day info, and dunno what game it could be compared to.
- Assassins Creed 2 had a healthy weekend on PS3 after the 1st day numbers where 360 version was closer.
AS1 360 did 34k, so the 360 version of AC2 is down, with 28k.
AS1 PS3 did 37k, so the PS3 version of AC2 is up, with 56k.
AS1 was a 2-month-exclusive on 360, so the turnout was expected.
- Tokimeki Memorial 4 was higher than Love Plus on 1st day (28k vs 22k) but falls behind slightly on 1st week (47k vs 48k).
Difficult to find numbers for an old franchise but from garaph:
http://garaph.info/softwaregroup.php?grid=135
Better start than the Girls Side games, worse than Tokimeki 3 on PS2 in 2001, which did 70k.
- Pawapoke 12 34k is noticeably worse than 11 and 10 (54k and 47k respectively). However its all about the legs, and Konami is confident given the 153k shipment on day 1.
- The extremely mature Beyblade game surprises me because its weekend ratio vs first day was 5,94. From 3700 to 22000 units. Biggest ratio I remember.

 

[vicissitudes]

All Nintendo needed to do was to release a game. Hell it didn't even have to be 'innovative' and new, just a good/great/awesome/GOTY or whatever was enough to bring the Wii back on top. I wonder if they understand this and will have more games for the system next year.

Galaxy 2,Vitality Sensor, Metroid, Zelda etc. that may seem like a bit much but the Wii train wouldn't slow down ever if they bombarded it with good software. Especially when they release stuff like Reginleiv as icing on the cake too.

It depends on the game. Super Mario Galaxy did something pathetic like ~200k its first week? And Metroid isn't exactly a system seller in Japan. Even Wii Sports Resort and Wii Fit Plus barely provided any lift in hardware sales.

 

[obonicus]

Finally things worked for Nintendo and all they needed to do was be creative: copy something they had already done that worked. Who said the Japanese market was harder to please than the American one?

Spoiler

=P

I realize you posted a disclaimer, but aren't we jumping the gun? This sort of feels like when certain people saw PS3's first 150k week post-slim release and started behaving as if that was the new status quo. Shouldn't we at least wait for a second week to see how the hardware bump holds up? (Edit: Maybe I should have directed this at [Nintex].)

 

[[Nintex]]

I realize you posted a disclaimer, but aren't we jumping the gun? This sort of feels like when certain people saw PS3's first 150k week post-slim release and started behaving as if that was the new status quo. Shouldn't we at least wait for a second week to see how the hardware bump holds up? (Edit: Maybe I should have directed this at [Nintex].)

You're right sales could drop again but it is no secret that this Mario game caused a bump on the first place. A bump that didn't happen because Nintendo didn't release software that was good enough. Even Iwata admitted that Nintendo missed the mark with some of their games, causing Wii sales to flatline. He was also right that a price drop wasn't enough to restore sales to their former levels.

 

[obonicus]

You're right sales could drop again but it is no secret that this Mario game caused a bump on the first place. A bump that didn't happen because Nintendo didn't release software that was good enough. Even Iwata admitted that Nintendo missed the mark with some of their games, causing Wii sales to flatline. He was also right that a price drop wasn't enough to restore sales to their former levels.

Right, but my point is that we can't really do much with a single week's worth of data. Maybe Iwata was right (or rather, maybe NSMBW is the right catalyst), but it's too early to tell. The upcoming holiday bump is just going to confuse things further.

 

[[Nintex]]

Right, but my point is that we can't really do much with a single week's worth of data. Maybe Iwata was right, but it's too early to tell. The upcoming holiday bump is just going to confuse things further.

True, we need more proof but maybe Nintendo co. Ltd is as excited as I am and just greenlit New Super Mario Bros. Wii 2: Yoshi's World. :lol

 

[Takao]

Oh cool I won :lol I don't think I predicted next week's results because I wanted to see how I did this week, oh well.

 

[Paracelsus]

You're right sales could drop again but it is no secret that this Mario game caused a bump on the first place. A bump that didn't happen because Nintendo didn't release software that was good enough. Even Iwata admitted that Nintendo missed the mark with some of their games, causing Wii sales to flatline. He was also right that a price drop wasn't enough to restore sales to their former levels.

True, we need more proof but maybe Nintendo co. Ltd is as excited as I am and just greenlit New Super Mario Bros. Wii 2: Yoshi's World.

At this point, I'd say you're exactly right, Nintendo would be best to just remake all old school Marios (Super Mario Wiirld etc.) than waiting for third parties to do the trick.

 

[cvxfreak]

I wonder if the DS can make it to 30 Million this year... doesn't seem too likely with the Wii probably taking up a lot of Nintendo's potential sales this December, but it'd be a nice number to finally see in light of the UK 10 Million news.

 

[Brofist]

Livin in a post Basara world Koei!!

More like a post Sony world.

 

[onken]

You're right sales could drop again but it is no secret that this Mario game caused a bump on the first place. A bump that didn't happen because Nintendo didn't release software that was good enough. Even Iwata admitted that Nintendo missed the mark with some of their games, causing Wii sales to flatline. He was also right that a price drop wasn't enough to restore sales to their former levels.

What do you think they can release next that will have a similar impact?

 

[[Nintex]]

What do you think they can release next that will have a similar impact?

I'm not sure, I remember that during the SNES days Donkey Kong Country did really really well. Maybe they need to look into that as far as 2D platformers go. On the other hand they used up most of their well known IP's. There's stuff that is big like Nintendogs Wii and there are games that blow everything else away like New Super Mario Bros. Wii but they just used that card.

 

[Road]

I wonder if the DS can make it to 30 Million this year... doesn't seem too likely with the Wii probably taking up a lot of Nintendo's potential sales this December, but it'd be a nice number to finally see in light of the UK 10 Million news.

Nearly 1.5 million to go with three weeks left (or four weeks; I'm never certain when the year ends haha). I don't think it will...

What's left to wonder is: when will it reach 35 million?

 

[Sage00]

What do you think they can release next that will have a similar impact?

Tetris Wii.

 

[marc^o^]

I'm not sure, I remember that during the SNES days Donkey Kong Country did really really well. Maybe they need to look into that as far as 2D platformers go. On the other hand they used up most of their well known IP's. There's stuff that is big like Nintendogs Wii and there are games that blow everything else away like New Super Mario Bros. Wii but they just used that card.

I predict Nintendogs will be released in Q4 2010 on wii. It must have sold 25 million units already, and it seems obvious it would be a system seller on wii for its audience.

One of the cards Nintendo has, that is not discussed here, is to keep advertising Mario Kart, NSMB, WiiFit and Wii Sports Resort (+Vitality Sensor next year): the bigger the classic/evergreen titles list gets, the more appealing a wii is to new buyers.

 

[pieatorium]

Tetris Wii.

PokeMMOn

 

[gkryhewy]

What do you think they can release next that will have a similar impact?

It seems clear that their next title of emphasis is the new Zelda. It's gotten a lot more press play from them than SMG2 or whatever they're doing with the vitality sensor, both of which should feature prominently along with zelda at E3.

Seems unlikely that zelda will cut across demographics like NSMB, however.

 

[Spiegel]

What's interesting to me is that Phantasy Star Portable is doing VERY poorly on budget re-release. It is a little more worrying if you factor in the fact that the Best release includes extra goodies, and a preview of PSP2. Could this be indicative that after the initial strong interest of the first game died down, that fans are not exactly clamoring for another entry in the series? It might also help to explain the poorer sales that PS Zero did on the DS. Could PSP2 turn out to be a flop this holiday season? I think it's possible.

02. / 00. [PSP] Phantasy Star Portable 2 (Sega) - 287.000 / NEW

Oh, duckroll

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

What do you think they can release next that will have a similar impact?

Anything but music composition.

I'm actually a little surprised that Nintendo hedged their bets last Year on Wii Music; they tried a similar thing with the DS in Electroplankton that failed miserably. Frankly, the fact that Wii Music sold as much as it did is a testament to the strength of the "Wii____" series brand and Miyamoto's reputation as a game designer.

Animal Crossing, while a strong franchise, is nowhere near an A caliber title; that coupled with Wii Music's poor penetration guaranteed bad Wii performance, which Nintendo clearly wasn't ready for. They paid dearly for that misstep, particularly in Japan.

 

[duckroll]

Oh, duckroll

PSP1 sold 330k in the first week, and went on to sell 633k LTD. Not only is PSP2 performing 50k lower in the first week, but I'm certain it won't have anything CLOSE to the legs PSP1 did. PSP2 will be lucky to sell 400k LTD.

Maybe you should think about that before you "Oh, duckroll" me.

 

[obonicus]

I'm actually a little surprised that Nintendo hedged their bets last Year on Wii Music; they tried a similar thing with the DS in Electroplankton that failed miserably. Frankly, the fact that Wii Music sold as much as it did is a testament to the strength of the "Wii____" series brand and Miyamoto's reputation as a game designer.

They wanted to expand into different markets like they did with Wii Fit (and if they had succeeded 2009 would have looked pretty different sales-wise). I also suspect they bought into their own hype as hitmakers -- quite a few faithful were considering Wii Music's Wii Fit-like success a foregone conclusion.

 

[Spiegel]

PSP1 sold 330k in the first week, and went on to sell 633k LTD. Not only is PSP2 performing 50k lower in the first week, but I'm certain it won't have anything CLOSE to the legs PSP1 did. PSP2 will be lucky to sell 400k LTD.

Maybe you should think about that before you "Oh, duckroll" me.

Take it easy, man. You were wrong with that prediction and that's okay.
Even if the game sells "only" 400k it wouldn't be a flop.

PSP1 was lucky to ride the MH fever on its highest point and had a really bad word of mouth (Sinobi has said this on its blog).
In the end, PSP2 is going to be very profitable for Sega and would have sold a lot worse on any console not named PSP

I bookmarked your quote because I found funny how you were expecting PSP2 to flop only because the best version was doing like most of them do.

My post was a friendly pun, I'm sorry if you took it the wrong way

 

[bernardobri]

Hold on... PSP Go = PSP2? Is it really a successor?

 

[duckroll]

Take it easy, man. You were wrong with that prediction and that's okay.
Even if the game sells "only" 400k it wouldn't be a flop.

PSP1 was lucky to ride the MH fever on its highest point and had a really bad word of mouth (Sinobi has stated this on its blog).
In the end, PSP2 is going to be very profitable for Sega and would have sold a lot worse on any console not named PSP

I bookmarked your quote because I found funny how you were expecting PSP2 to flop only because the best version was doing like most of them do.

My post was a friendly pun, I'm sorry if you took it the wrong way

So you bookmarked the quote, and you didn't bother to check what my actual prediction figure was for the title? I predicted 250k, it did 287k. Relatively close wouldn't you say? I would consider 400k LTD to be a huge failure for PSP2 honestly. Especially when the director of the game at Alfa was hyping it up on his blog saying how he was confident the game will sell really well, and that since the original sold over 600k, the sequel might even sell a MILLION copies. LULZ.

 

[archnemesis]

Hold on... PSP Go = PSP2? Is it really a successor?

PSP2 = Phantasy Star Portable 2

 

[[Nintex]]

Hold on... PSP Go = PSP2? Is it really a successor?

What's a PSP Go?

Oh wait it sold 3600 units this week, must've been Power Sonic Play Go from Sonic Team for Wonderswan or something.

 

[Seraphis Cain]

Not too bad for Kamen Rider Climax Heroes W. Wonder how it did in comparison to the PS2 Climax Heroes (of which CHW is a slightly enhanced port of), which only came out four month prior.

 

[bernardobri]

Oh, there you go. I got mixed the abbreviations. Thanks arch.

 

[Bananakin]

05. [NDS] Professor Layton and the Flute of Malevolent Destiny (Level 5) - 85.000 / 391.000 (-72%)

Wow, pretty big drop for Layton.

 

[Road]

Not too bad for Kamen Rider Climax Heroes W. Wonder how it did in comparison to the PS2 Climax Heroes (of which CHW is a slightly enhanced port of), which only came out four month prior.

http://garaph.info/softwareindividual.php//gid/3663

The original did 53,000 first week.

 

[t3nmilez]

Heh, Tokimeki has similar sales to Love Plus. I think iDOLM@STER DS and Dream Club also had very similar first day->first week sales. I guess it's probably the same hardcore audience that gets them right away.

I wonder how TM4 will end up performing overall...Love Plus apparently had great word of mouth and hit over 100k...

Well, at least it shows there's still some sort of a market for dating sims here, haha. I'm sure they've gotten a lot more advanced than the sims of the 90s.

 

[cvxfreak]

Question I've pondered for a long time for people who understand Japanese: why is it ファンタシースター in the case of PS, but ファイナルファンタジー in the case of FF?

 

[duckroll]

Question I've pondered for a long time for people who understand Japanese: why is it ファンタシースター in the case of PS, but ファイナルファンタジー in the case of FF?

Probably the same reason why it is Phantasy instead of Fantasy in English. ファンタジー is the correct way to romanize the word fantasy, ファンタシー is unique to Phantasy Star.

 

[cvxfreak]

Probably the same reason why it is Phantasy instead of Fantasy in English. ファンタジー is the correct way to romanize the word fantasy, ファンタシー is unique to Phantasy Star.

...I hate myself for not seeing this earlier. Now that I look at it, it's so obvious I feel dumb right now. Thanks for the "duh!" moment. :lol

Although it's interesting because my confusion lay in PS's katakana actually being closer to the English pronunciation.

 

[Jaruru]

It's pretty good for any dead system.

so you didn't answer the question.

congrats to NSMBWii. almost 1 million copies sold in 4 days?
so many new titles on top 10 :O
and Nintendo grabbed 22/30 spots

 

[duckroll]

Although it's interesting because my confusion lay in PS's katakana actually being closer to the English pronunciation.

Yeah well, there's a lot of funky shit like that in katakana. It's a really poor way of transferring words from one language to another imo.

 

[schuelma]

I realize you posted a disclaimer, but aren't we jumping the gun? This sort of feels like when certain people saw PS3's first 150k week post-slim release and started behaving as if that was the new status quo. Shouldn't we at least wait for a second week to see how the hardware bump holds up? (Edit: Maybe I should have directed this at [Nintex].)

With regards to December sales, I don't think its too early...Wii sales start skyrocketing starting next week anyways (in 2007 sales went up 55K from this week to next, in 2008 they went up 35K). I honestly think 600K for the next 4 weeks is likely.

Long term..of course its to early and if NSMB Wii doesn't spur sales in January I don't know what Nintendo is going to do.

 

[onken]

Yeah well, there's a lot of funky shit like that in katakana. It's a really poor way of transferring words from one language to another imo.

Actually it often gets you a lot closer to the original pronunciation compared to the way we do it, which is usually a guess based on the spelling.

 

[cvxfreak]

The PS3 Slim was a relaunch. Relaunches, should initial demand be met*, usually never hold up in the following weeks. The Wii is experiencing what every system does: it's holiday bump. So high sales shall indeed be the status quo for the next month.














*DS Lite, I'm looking at you.

 

[kay]

Results

You used my old predictions! I had changed them before the deadline http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=18688095&postcount=429 I didn't know you were going to collect them as they were posted. I counted the results myself and came in 2nd with 167k (1k nooo). Oh well, I'll mention it if happens again.

 

[obonicus]

With regards to December sales, I don't think its too early...Wii sales start skyrocketing starting next week anyways (in 2007 sales went up 55K from this week to next, in 2008 they went up 35K). I honestly think 600K for the next 4 weeks is likely.

So you're saying Wii sales going up right about now is part of a pattern -- that means we'd still have to see something out of the norm next week to be able to intelligently talk about the effect of NSMB Wii on sales. (I think it's more likely the actual boost, if it exists, will be indisinguishable from the year-end boost so we'll be left in the dark 'til January.)

 

[schuelma]

So you're saying Wii sales going up right about now is part of a pattern -- that means we'd still have to see something out of the norm next week to be able to intelligently talk about the effect of NSMB Wii on sales. (I think it's more likely the actual boost, if it exists, will be indisinguishable from the year-end boost so we'll be left in the dark 'til January.)

Yeah pretty much. We have 2007 and 2008 to compare it to, so we should get an idea of its impact compared to Wii Fit and Animal Crossing.

The 100K is still a good sign though...that's a much higher bump than Animal Crossing provided last year.

 

[Seraphis Cain]

Tetris Wii.

Already exists.

 

[hirokazu]

How the hell did PS3 manage 50k this week amidst the return of the Wii? o_0

 

[Paracelsus]

Yeah pretty much. We have 2007 and 2008 to compare it to, so we should get an idea of its impact compared to Wii Fit and Animal Crossing.

The 100K is still a good sign though...that's a much higher bump than Animal Crossing provided last year.

Sounds a bit unfair, SMBWii first week is three times bigger. Since most people agree about the LTD predictions (of SMBW), you could say Wii got its mainline Final Fantasy this week.

 

[schuelma]

Sounds a bit unfair, since SMBWii first week is three times bigger..

You can't just go by the software sales and try and be fair about it..heck Wii Fit wasn't selling more than 250K a week when it released and it provided a huge December.

MK Wii opened with 600K and IIRC didn't provide any sort of bump.