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[7Th]

How the hell did PS3 manage 50k this week amidst the return of the Wii? o_0

FFXIII is just 7 days away.

 

[Paracelsus]

You can't just go by the software sales and try and be fair about it..heck Wii Fit wasn't selling more than 250K a week when it released and it provided a huge December.

MK Wii opened with 600K and IIRC didn't provide any sort of bump.

Bingo. When was the last time a brand new side-scrolling Mario platformer was released on a Nintendo homeconsole? I haven't still played it, but the way people talk about it sounds like Christ's second coming.

 

[schuelma]

FFXIII is just 7 days away.

Wow..FF13 predictions are almost here

 

[obonicus]

Bingo. When was the last time a brand new side-scrolling Mario platformer was released on a Nintendo homeconsole? I haven't still played it, but the way people talk about it sounds like Christ's second coming.

To be fair, and this isn't a knock against NSMBW, but GAF only has two volumes: second coming and cancer-causing.

 

[Tom Penny]

I wonder if the new FF will sell over a Million week one.

 

[kswiston]

With regards to December sales, I don't think its too early...Wii sales start skyrocketing starting next week anyways (in 2007 sales went up 55K from this week to next, in 2008 they went up 35K). I honestly think 600K for the next 4 weeks is likely.

Long term..of course its to early and if NSMB Wii doesn't spur sales in January I don't know what Nintendo is going to do.

I disagree with your premise that wii sales will go up next week, based on what we have seen in 2007/2008. Neither of those years had anything like the launch of NSMB Wii in December. You yourself have said many times that the holiday release schedule was horrible in 2008. In 2007, Wii Fit started much slower and was supply restrained for awhile.

This year we have the biggest launch in Wii history. The bump from 40-something thousand to 100k+ was not a normal first week of December bump. This is the sort of bump that accompanies an event game.

Like every event driven bump, next week's hardware numbers will drop. The drop will be smaller than normal due to the December effect, but I think it is highly unlikely that the Wii sells 100k+ next week. 80-90k will be a good number. Maybe back in the lower 100k range the week after.

 

[Oxx]

How does that Layton drop compare to the previous releases?

 

[schuelma]

I disagree with your premise that wii sales will go up next week, based on what we have seen in 2007/2008. Neither of those years had anything like the launch of NSMB Wii in December. You yourself have said many times that the holiday release schedule was horrible in 2008. In 2007, Wii Fit started much slower and was supply restrained for awhile.

This year we have the biggest launch in Wii history. The bump from 40-something thousand to 100k+ was not a normal first week of December bump. This is the sort of bump that accompanies an event game.

Like every event driven bump, next week's hardware numbers will drop. The drop will be smaller than normal due to the December effect, but I think it is highly unlikely that the Wii sells 100k+ next week. 80-90k will be a good number. Maybe back in the lower 100k range the week after.

Disagree. First, while it had a great opening week, it also showed very impressive legs which suggests to me that its going to have a huge 2nd week as well. This isn't going to be like Final Fantasy where you sell 2 million the first week and then 300K the second.

Second, I think if you look at 2007 and 2008, no matter what release schedule Nintendo had, the Wii starts rising in the beginning of December and doesn't stop until January. I think there would have been a decent bump even without NSMB Wii, honestly.

Your prediction for the next 2 weeks is historically very low. If next weeks number is 80-90K, that would be less than last years number (92k) which as I've said many times had a horrible software lineup. I really doubt this year, with NSMB Wii and SW3 in its 2nd week, and ToG debuting, you are going to see a lower number than last year which wasn't selling off of anything other than Taiko Wii and continued Animal Crossing and Wii Music sales.

Let me put it this way..what is a better hardware driver..another 450-500K sales of NSMB Wii (not to mention ToG debuting), or Taiko Wii debuting at around a 100K and continued sales from a game that is 3 weeks old (Animal Crossing)?

The same thing with 2 weeks from now- your prediction of maybe getting back into the lower 100's would be below 2008's number which just seems very unlikely to happen.

 

[Vinnk]

Just saw an ad for SW3 with an old woman in a kimono playing it. Really odd. If there was one game I didn't think they would try pushing in the expanded market..

I wonder if it will work?

 

[kswiston]

Disagree. First, while it had a great opening week, it also showed very impressive legs which suggests to me that its going to have a huge 2nd week as well. This isn't going to be like Final Fantasy where you sell 2 million the first week and then 300K the second.

Second, I think if you look at 2007 and 2008, no matter what release schedule Nintendo had, the Wii starts rising in the beginning of December and doesn't stop until January. I think there would have been a decent bump even without NSMB Wii, honestly.

Your prediction for the next 2 weeks is historically very low. If next weeks number is 80-90K, that would be less than last years number (92k) which as I've said many times had a horrible software lineup. I really doubt this year, with NSMB Wii and SW3 in its 2nd week, and ToG debuting, you are going to see a lower number than last year which wasn't selling off of anything other than Taiko Wii and continued Animal Crossing and Wii Music sales.

Let me put it this way..what is a better hardware driver..another 450-500K sales of NSMB Wii (not to mention ToG debuting), or Taiko Wii debuting at around a 100K and continued sales from a game that is 3 weeks old (Animal Crossing)?

The same thing with 2 weeks from now- your prediction of maybe getting back into the lower 100's would be below 2008's number which just seems very unlikely to happen.

You may be right about next week. We shall see. For the record though, by lower 100's two weeks from now, I meant <130k. I wasn't very clear. I suppose lower 100's could mean 100-105k.

 

[Road]

How does that Layton drop compare to the previous releases?

Layton 1: 137.000 -> 50.000 (-63%)
Layton 2: 294.000 -> 76.000 (-74%)
Layton 3: 347.000 -> 87.000 (-75%)
Layton 4: 306.000 -> 85.000 (-72%)

(Data by Media Create.)

 

[madara]

Good sign for 2D, well at least if you have mario in your name. Boy and His blob and Muramasa likely didnt even do ten percent of that. Think we need 2D Zelda and 2D Metroid to get a fair picture of 2D here Nintendo!

 

[Oxx]

Layton 1: 137.000 -> 50.000 (-63%)
Layton 2: 294.000 -> 76.000 (-74%)
Layton 3: 347.000 -> 87.000 (-75%)
Layton 4: 306.000 -> 85.000 (-72%)

(Data by Media Create.)

Thanks.

Seems par-for-the-course.

 

[gkryhewy]

Good sign for 2D, well at least if you have mario in your name. Boy and His blob and Muramasa likely didnt even do ten percent of that. Think we need 2D Zelda and 2D Metroid to get a fair picture of 2D here Nintendo!

It does bode well for New Super Legend of Zelda Wii.

 

[kswiston]

Here is Chris1964's Wii hardware comparison chart, adapted to include the fifth "December" week (ending on Jan 3rd this year) as I believe our 5 week hardware predictions for Wii and PS3 include that week.

Media-Create Wii Hardware sales

week	 2007	 2008	 2009
 40	 20.704	 25.330	 35.392
 41	 20.575	 22.877	 30.741
 42	 24.932	 26.024	 29.965
 43	 27.502	 24.292	 25.917
 44	 37.617	 23.123	 28.888
 45	 34.546	 24.726	 31.810
 46	 36.230	 26.787	 26.764
 47	 54.362	 35.298	 32.844
 48	 74.764	 49.848	 46.673
 49	 115.057 56.702 ~100.000?
 50	 170.558 91.641	
 51	 232.907 131.054	
 52	 152.209 134.958	
 01      207.797 119.965

Based on these numbers, Wii was selling recording low weeks for the three week period leading up to NSMB. Of course NSMB Wii has provided a giant bump this week (we will see how big according to M-C a bit later). We will see how things continue from this point forward. In 2008, Wii averaged 119k a week for the 4 week period after this point. If Wii can manage to beat that average by 5-6k a week this year, it will hit the 600k mark for the 5 weeks.

 

[savor100]

Look at those NSMB Wii numbers! I'm really happy, I think it's one of the best games of 2009, multiplayer is so fun.

 

[schuelma]

In 2008, Wii averaged 119k a week for the 4 week period after this point. If Wii can manage to beat that average by 5-6k a week this year, it will hit the 600k mark for the 5 weeks.

Thanks for the chart. I think that puts things into perspective..I think its very likely to outsell 2008 significantly. Remember its also 5,000 yen cheaper this holiday as well.

 

[Spiegel]

Looks like WE2010 is going to underperform badly on all three consoles.

Konami made the psp version even more unappealing compared to previous years (I didn't think that was possible) removing, for example, the online mode added last year but I don't think that's a valid excuse. I mean, the game is awfully stripped down compared to the ps2 and wii versions but that's nothing new and last years version sold pretty good.

Maybe next year they'll try harder

Spoiler

AHUAHUAHUA

 

[schuelma]

Looks like WE2010 is going to underperform badly on all three consoles.

I don't know if there were better options, but they've certainly mismanaged things. They never gave the Wii version a chance and relegated the PS2/PSP versions to second tier status as well.

I wonder if in hindsight they should have made the PSP version the headliner.

 

[BishopLamont]

Here is Chris1964's Wii hardware comparison chart, adapted to include the fifth "December" week (ending on Jan 3rd this year) as I believe our 5 week hardware predictions for Wii and PS3 include that week.



Based on these numbers, Wii was selling recording low weeks for the three week period leading up to NSMB. Of course NSMB Wii has provided a giant bump this week (we will see how big according to M-C a bit later). We will see how things continue from this point forward. In 2008, Wii averaged 119k a week for the 4 week period after this point. If Wii can manage to beat that average by 5-6k a week this year, it will hit the 600k mark for the 5 weeks.

Well it looks pretty solid that the Wii will outdo 2008's holiday season, lower price point and huge a game like NSMBW pretty much guarantees it. It's been outselling 2008 for awhile now, minus the 3 weeks leading up to NSMBW's release. Although this means nothing because the PS3 dropped too (quite heavily) in the weeks leading up to the slim and continued to sell big numbers long after.

Looks like WE2010 is going to underperform badly on all three consoles.

Konami made the psp version even more unappealing compared to previous years (I didn't think that was possible) removing, for example, the online mode added last year but I don't think that's a valid excuse. I mean, the game is awfully stripped down compared to the ps2 and wii versions but that's nothing new and last years version sold pretty good.

Maybe next year they'll try harder

Spoiler

AHUAHUAHUA

Why would the do such a thing? Makes no sense. :/

 

[Fafalada]

Looks like WE2010 is going to underperform badly on all three consoles.

The fun thing with Japan is that unlike other countries, disillusioned soccer fans don't go pick up the other better game, they just buy nothing instead.

 

[Hero of Legend]

Just saw an ad for SW3 with an old woman in a kimono playing it. Really odd. If there was one game I didn't think they would try pushing in the expanded market..

I wonder if it will work?

What kind of ad? TV commercial?

 

[DefectiveReject]

LOL
Mario really gave the Wii that much of a bump?

 

[schuelma]

LOL
Mario really gave the Wii that much of a bump?

Pretty surprising given how many Mario games have already come out. Who knew the public could distinguish between kart racers and 2D platformers.

 

[NeonZ]

Good sign for 2D, well at least if you have mario in your name. Boy and His blob and Muramasa likely didnt even do ten percent of that. Think we need 2D Zelda and 2D Metroid to get a fair picture of 2D here Nintendo!

New Super Mario Bros Wii is as "2d" as Smash Bros and Street Fighter 4. People like 2d's Mario gameplay, but that has nothing to do with an attempt to bring back SNES-style Zeldas or Metroids, considering their widely different gameplay and original sales numbers.

 

[Vinnk]

What kind of ad? TV commercial?

Yeah, TV ad. 30 second spot. Aired about midnight. I can't find it on youtube yet.

 

[schuelma]

Yeah, TV ad. 30 second spot. Aired about midnight. I can't find it on youtube yet.

I think its on this page

 

[Vinnk]

I think its on this page

That's it. 5th one down.

 

[Chris1964]

Where are the all leaks? We have only the new releases in top 30 from Famitsu and the drill blog hasn't updated yet. And it is only December 10.

Next week releases (17/12/09) (Final Fantasy XIII and... Gundam attack)

xx . [NDS] Katekyoo Hitman Reborn! DS Ore ga Boss! Saikyou Family Taisen (Takara Tomy)
xx . [NDS] Deca Sports DS (Hudson)
xx . [NDS] Dear Girl: Stories Hibiki - Hibiki Tokkun Daisakusen! (ASCII Media Works)
xx . [NDS] Anpanman to Asobo: Aiueo Kyoushitsu DX (Agatsuma Entertainment)
xx . [NDS] Jewel Pet 2: Mahou no DS Kirapi Kariin (MTO)
xx . [NDS] Need for Speed: Nitro (Electronic Arts Victor)
xx . [NDS] Koushounin DS (Alpha Unit)
xx . [NDS] Fuyu no Sonata DS (D3 Publisher)
xx . [NDS] Poupee Girl DS (Alvion)

xx . [PSP] Queen's Blade: Spiral Chaos (Namco Bandai)
xx . [PSP] Dice Dice Fantasia (Broccoli)
xx . [PS2] Moe Moe 2: Ji Daisenryaku 2 (System Soft Alpha)
xx . [PSP] Akane Iro ni Somaru Saka Portable (LukPlus)
xx . [PSP] Naraku no Shiro Portable (Nippon Ichi Software)
xx . [PSP] F1 2009 (Codemasters)
xx . [PSP] Gundam Battle Universe (Gundam 30th Anniversary Collection) (Namco Bandai)
xx . [PSP] Mobile Suit Gundam: Seed - Federation Vs. Z.A.F.T. Portable (Gundam 30th Anniversary Collection) (Namco Bandai)
xx . [PSP] Mobile Suit Gundam: Giren's Ambition - Axis no Kyoui V (Gundam 30th Anniversary Collection) (Namco Bandai)
xx . [PSP] Memories Off (2800 Selection) (CyberFront)
xx . [PSP] Memories Off 2nd (2800 Selection) (CyberFront)
xx . [PSP] Memories Off: Complete Box (2800 Selection) (CyberFront)
xx . [PSP] Memories Off: Sorekara (2800 Selection) (CyberFront)
xx . [PSP] Memories Off 5: Togireta Film (2800 Selection) (CyberFront)
xx . [PSP] Omoide ni Kawaru-Kimi: Memories Off (2800 Selection) (CyberFront)
xx . [PSP] Saikyou Toudai Shogi Portable (Mycom Best) (MyCom)

xx . [WII] Need for Speed: Nitro (Electronic Arts Victor)
xx . [WII] F1 2009 (Codemasters)
xx . [WII] Minna ga Shuyaku no NHK Kouhaku Quiz Kassen (Nintendo)
xx . [WII] Mobile Suit Gundam: MS Front 0079 (Gundam 30th Anniversary Collection) (Namco Bandai)

xx . [PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square Enix)
xx . [PS3] Dynasty Warriors: Gundam 2 (Gundam 30th Anniversary Collection) (Namco Bandai)
xx . [PS3] Daikoukai Jidai Online: El Oriente (Koei) - 15/12/09

xx . [360] Dynasty Warriors: Gundam 2 (Gundam 30th Anniversary Collection) (Namco Bandai)
xx . [360] Viva Pinata: Trouble in Paradise (Platinum Collection) (Microsoft Game Studios)
xx . [360] Banjo-Kazooie: Nuts & Bolts (Platinum Collection) (Microsoft Game Studios)

xx . [PS2] Death Connection (Idea Factory)
xx . [PS2] Mobile Suit Gundam: Seed - Federation Vs. Z.A.F.T. II Plus (Gundam 30th Anniversary Collection) (Namco Bandai)
xx . [PS2] Mobile Suit Gundam: Giren's Ambition - Axis no Kyoui V (Gundam 30th Anniversary Collection) (Namco Bandai)
xx . [PS2] Mobile Suit Gundam 00: Gundam Meisters (Gundam 30th Anniversary Collection) (Namco Bandai)
xx . [PS2] SD Gundam G Generation: Spirits (Gundam 30th Anniversary Collection) (Namco Bandai)
xx . [PS2] Saikyou Toudai Shogi Special II (Mycom Best) (MyCom)

Nothing big this week except for Final Fantasy XIII. Maybe we should predict and for old games (NSMBW, HG/SS, Friend Collection etc)

 

[schuelma]

Where are the all leaks? We have only the new releases in top 30 from Famitsu and the drill blog hasn't updated yet. And it is only December 10.

Yeah the Famitsu top 30 is getting less and less reliable. Hopefully we get it late tonight like last week.

Nothing big this week except for Final Fantasy XIII. Maybe we should predict and for old games (NSMBW, HG/SS, Friend Collection etc)

I think we're going to Wii/PS3 hardware, but yeah I think something like NSMB Wii would be a good one to predict.

 

[Souldriver]

Nothing big this week except for Final Fantasy XIII. Maybe we should predict and for old games (NSMBW, HG/SS, Friend Collection etc)

Yeah, I'd like to see salesage predict the second week sales of the big hitters like NSMBW and FFXIII.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

You used my old predictions! I had changed them before the deadline http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=18688095&postcount=429 I didn't know you were going to collect them as they were posted. I counted the results myself and came in 2nd with 167k (1k nooo). Oh well, I'll mention it if happens again.

Oh, my mistake. You can indeed change them before deadline but, not just for you but everyone, tell me via PM (after changing your original post) or post them again in a new post (so the new ones are visible to everyone). Of course, it'll be best to avoid posting them until you are certain you won't change them, so there's no misleading going on.

Changed them, you're indeed 2nd by 2k (Musou figure used is 127k):
Revised Prediction Results 11/30-12/06
#1 Takao, #2 kay, #3 Chris1964

Nothing big this week except for Final Fantasy XIII. Maybe we should predict and for old games (NSMBW, HG/SS, Friend Collection etc)

I thought doing FFXIII 1st day, FFXIII normal week prediction, Wii hardware and PS3 hardware.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

Yeah, I'd like to see salesage predict the second week sales of the big hitters like NSMBW and FFXIII.

I would like to see this too.

 

[shinshero]

Oh, my mistake. You can indeed change them before deadline but, not just for you but everyone, tell me via PM (after changing your original post) or post them again in a new post (so the new ones are visible to everyone). Of course, it'll be best to avoid posting them until you are certain you won't change them, so there's no misleading going on.

Changed them, you're indeed 2nd by 2k (Musou figure used is 127k):
Revised Prediction Results 11/30-12/06
#1 Takao, #2 kay, #3 Chris1964


I thought doing FFXIII 1st day, FFXIII normal week prediction, Wii hardware and PS3 hardware.

If so then...(1st Day/1st Week/YTD)

[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII: 990K/1400k/1790k
PS3 HW (for that week): 235K
Wii HW: 135K

 

[Chris1964]

If so then...(1st Day/1st Week/YTD)

[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII: 990K/1400k/1790k
PS3 HW (for that week): 235K
Wii HW: 135K

Predictions begin after the first day numbers tomorrow. And the prediction list isn't finalized yet.

 

[tenritsu]

Wonderful! I was right on the money with my Samurai Warriors prediction!

Nice numbers for New Super Mario Bros. Wii too! Hooray for Wii!

 

[Count Dookkake]

Pretty surprising given how many Mario games have already come out. Who knew the public could distinguish between kart racers and 2D platformers.

To be fair, that is a lot easier than distinguishing between a dozen bald space marines.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

So it's not something I post frequently, but as Nintendo first-party games continue to sell on Wii, I've been watching for them to pass up the top publishers on PS2. They've got a bit to hit the top, but I think they'll soon be ahead of all but one. They're currently around 25 million, and this is just before NSMB Wii hits. Konami PS2 is around 24 million. Square Enix on PS2 (combining the numbers even for when the companies were separate) comes to about 27 million. The #1 is thanks to another merger, with Namco + Bandai + Namco Bandai being over 31 million.

So would NSMB be the biggest opening for a Wii game?

I believe it's the biggest opening of the decade for anything not Pokémon, Dragon Quest, or Final Fantasy. If anything else sneaks in, it would have to be a late PS1 release since that software data isn't in Garaph.

 

[SuperSonic1305]

I like being immature: I think the Wii will rape the PS3 this holiday season.

Finally things worked for Nintendo and all they needed to do was be creative: copy something they had already done that worked. Who said the Japanese market was harder to please than the American one?

Spoiler

=P

How is that being creative?

 

[Busaiku]

It's a shame about Layton.
It's doing worse than the previous entry, which didn't have that extra 100 hour bonus game.
The movie might be able to boost it, but it doesn't seem like the franchise can grow at all.

 

[schuelma]

It's a shame about Layton.
It's doing worse than the previous game, which didn't have that extra 100 hour bonus game.
The movie might be able to boost it, but it doesn't seem like the franchise can grow at all.

I don't think it helps when this is what, the fourth entry since 2007?

 

[Busaiku]

Sure, but this did have a year long gap (like the third) and an "additional" game as well.
It's also riding up to the release of the movie.
Given all that, it's still a pretty significant decline.

 

[Vilix]

Just saw an ad for SW3 with an old woman in a kimono playing it. Really odd. If there was one game I didn't think they would try pushing in the expanded market..

I wonder if it will work?

I have a sudden urge to play SW3 now.

 

[shinshero]

So it's not something I post frequently, but as Nintendo first-party games continue to sell on Wii, I've been watching for them to pass up the top publishers on PS2. They've got a bit to hit the top, but I think they'll soon be ahead of all but one. They're currently around 25 million, and this is just before NSMB Wii hits. Konami PS2 is around 24 million. Square Enix on PS2 (combining the numbers even for when the companies were separate) comes to about 27 million. The #1 is thanks to another merger, with Namco + Bandai + Namco Bandai being over 31 million.

I believe it's the biggest opening of the decade for anything not Pokémon, Dragon Quest, or Final Fantasy. If anything else sneaks in, it would have to be a late PS1 release since that software data isn't in Garaph.

How about Monster Hunter?

 

[duckroll]

Sure, but this did have a year long gap (like the third) and an "additional" game as well.
It's also riding up to the release of the movie.
Given all that, it's still a pretty significant decline.

- No one gives a crap about the "additional" game.

- Layton 1-3 is a complete trilogy. The story ended. This is the start of a new trilogy which is a prequel.

 

[Chris1964]

How about Monster Hunter?

Even Monster Hunter.

 

[shinshero]

Even Monster Hunter.

WOw. What was Monster Hunter 2's opening? 800-something thousand?

I remember it selling 500,000 day one.

 

[Chris1964]

Famitsu opening weeks

[PS2] Monster Hunter (Capcom) - 124.500 / 124.500
[PS2] Monster Hunter G (Capcom) - 127.846 / 127.846
[PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom (Capcom) - 113.640 / 113.640
[PS2] Monster Hunter 2 (Capcom) - 362.173 / 362.173
[PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom 2 (Capcom) - 705.281 / 705.281
[PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom Unite (Capcom) - 880.468 / 880.468
[WII] Monster Hunter G (Capcom) - 131.647 / 131.647
[WII] Monster Hunter 3 (Capcom) - 520.138 / 520.138

Media Create opening weeks

[PS2] Monster Hunter (Capcom) - 120.640 / 120.640
[PS2] Monster Hunter G (Capcom) - 128.051 / 128.051
[PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom (Capcom) - 118.317 / 118.317
[PS2] Monster Hunter 2 (Capcom) - 368.057 / 368.057
[PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom 2 (Capcom) - 746.313 / 746.313
[PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom Unite (Capcom) - 823.265 / 823.265
[WII] Monster Hunter G (Capcom) - 142.852 / 142.852
[WII] Monster Hunter 3 (Capcom) - 582.548 / 582.548

 

[Captain Chaos]

Wonderful! I was right on the money with my Samurai Warriors prediction!

Nice numbers for New Super Mario Bros. Wii too! Hooray for Wii!

Got caught up in the moment with NSMB numbers and thought for a split second you were leaking the next Wii name.

 

[Jokeropia]

I really don't see another Mario game on the Wii bumping it too much. Whereas FFXIII is going to bring in those die hard JRPG fans.

DS = Wii? How well did Animal Crossing do on the Wii compared to the DS version?

Do you finally accept your crow now or do you wanna wait until Wii doesn't get outsold by both 360 and PS3 in the November NPD?