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[DR2K]

Do you finally accept your crow now or do you wanna wait until Wii doesn't get outsold by both 360 and PS3 in the November NPD?

Wii used to go from easily outselling both consoles combined to barely outselling even 1. In the NPD anyways, this is media create. It's still going down worldwide, and the other 2 consoles continue to see growth. My original point still stands. Now I'm surprised at the hardware bump for NSMB, because even WSR and Wiifitplus couldn't achieve that.

 

[markatisu]

Wii used to go from easily outselling both consoles combined to barely outselling even 1. In the NPD anyways, this is media create. It's still going down worldwide, and the other 2 consoles continue to see growth. My original point still stands. Now I'm surprised at the hardware bump for NSMB, because even WSR and Wiifitplus couldn't achieve that.

Didn't we just get a Chart Track report that showed Wii on the uptick and a similar Black Friday report that showed the same growth? Where in the last 60 days it seems the 360 is the one showing a slow down compared to the Wii and PS3 worldwide

I mean compared to last year it is going to be down but the over exaggerated death spiral you were hinting at does not exist.

 

[gkryhewy]

Wii used to go from easily outselling both consoles combined to barely outselling even 1.

I'm not sure what month you're looking at, but it certainly isn't October 2009, when Wii missed outselling PS360 combined by about 20%.

It's still going down worldwide, and the other 2 consoles continue to see growth. My original point still stands.

Of the 4 assertions made in this quote, 3 are incorrect. PS3 is seeing growth.

 

[Rolf NB]

How the hell did PS3 manage 50k this week amidst the return of the Wii? o_0

Holidays coming up. All boats rise with the tide.

But wow at the 100k Wiis, my prediction is in shambles.

Spoiler

I blame Pokepark.

 

[Vinci]

Bingo. When was the last time a brand new side-scrolling Mario platformer was released on a Nintendo homeconsole? I haven't still played it, but the way people talk about it sounds like Christ's second coming.

....

Pretty accurate assessment actually.

 

[ZeoVGM]

do people still say these things?

Yes. It's a pretty common word actually.

But it is pretty inappropriate. We must be careful not to offend those who have been fucked up the ass with Wiimotes without their consent.

 

[jman2050]

Wii used to go from easily outselling both consoles combined to barely outselling even 1. In the NPD anyways, this is media create. It's still going down worldwide, and the other 2 consoles continue to see growth. My original point still stands. Now I'm surprised at the hardware bump for NSMB, because even WSR and Wiifitplus couldn't achieve that.

You understand as much about video game sales as you do about your avatar.

Give up now.

 

[ZeoVGM]

Wii used to go from easily outselling both consoles combined to barely outselling even 1. In the NPD anyways, this is media create. It's still going down worldwide, and the other 2 consoles continue to see growth. My original point still stands. Now I'm surprised at the hardware bump for NSMB, because even WSR and Wiifitplus couldn't achieve that.

:lol What the fuck are you talking about?

 

[shinshero]

:lol What the fuck are you talking about?

I think what he's saying is that the Wii has had a pretty significant year on year decline.

 

[Shambles]

Holidays coming up. All boats rise with the tide.

But wow at the 100k Wiis, my prediction is in shambles.

Spoiler

I blame Pokepark.

I deny this allegation.

What sort of sales bumps does the Japanese holiday season usually bring?

 

[Jokeropia]

I see people have already replied for me.

 

[DR2K]

Didn't we just get a Chart Track report that showed Wii on the uptick and a similar Black Friday report that showed the same growth? Where in the last 60 days it seems the 360 is the one showing a slow down compared to the Wii and PS3 worldwide

I mean compared to last year it is going to be down but the over exaggerated death spiral you were hinting at does not exist.

Wii sales went down by 300k from last year on BF. I used a strong word to make my case, but I never said the Wii was going to die, just that at the rate of which all the consoles are selling it's likely that it could be outsold. Keep in mind this is before the Wii price drop.

I think what he's saying is that the Wii has had a pretty significant year on year decline.

That's exactly what I'm saying.

You understand as much about video game sales as you do about your avatar.

 

[cvxfreak]

DR2K
yet another worthless Sony fanboy

:lol :lol :lol

 

[BlazingDarkness]

I deny this allegation.

What sort of sales bumps does the Japanese holiday season usually bring?

It'll be FFXIII buzz.

DR2K
yet another worthless Sony fanboy

:lol :lol :lol

:lol

 

[markatisu]

Wii sales went down by 300k from last year on BF. I used a strong word to make my case, but I never said the Wii was going to die, just that at the rate of which all the consoles are selling it's likely that it could be outsold. Keep in mind this is before the Wii price drop.

Well this is what you said

The perception of the Wii has gone straight to hell. Sales continue to spiral downward, while X360 and now PS3 see growth. Another Mario game and a slight upgrade to Wii fit isn't going to appeal to new users as seen with WSR. Unless Nintendo does something drastic, then things will only continue in the same direction.

Its more exaggeration then using strong language, YOY is going to be down that much is obvious and nobody is really refuting that (or has been for the last few months)

But dropping the price $50 and throwing out NSMB is hardly drastic, yet the results are changing.

Drastic would be $100 price drop or packing something like WSR in and dropping the price $50, neither of which had to happen.

The 360 is also not seeing much growth, MS reported 2x its previous week for BF which was most likely shitty sales to begin with.

About the only thing right in your view on things was the PS3 growth, and Sony should be commended for turning that around.

 

[gkryhewy]

(or has been for the last few months)

But unbeknownst to Bloomberg, the rate of YOY decline.... decline is lessening, and December should see a YOY increase in NPD.

 

[Shin Johnpv]

Don't the Wii's YOY decline almost exactly match the PS2's YOY decline for this year in its life span. I'm pretty sure some one made a chart of that or crunched the numbers for that in the NPD thread and they were almost exactly the same.

 

[schuelma]

But unbeknownst to Bloomberg, the rate of YOY decline.... decline is lessening, and December should see a YOY increase in NPD.

It will be funny to watch. I expect a ridiculously negative article on Bloomberg and the like by tomorrow about Wii's November 2009 sales compared to 2008, which were just unprecedented..and then these analysts will have whiplash in December when all of a sudden 2009 sales are most likely ahead of 2008.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Based on the latest Famitsu hardware numbers...
PSP comparisons: After 260 weeks, PSP is where PS2 was at 199.8 (+0.2) weeks (December 27, 2003), where DS was at 106.4 (+0.2) weeks (December 12, 2006), and where GBA was at 182.0 (+1.5) weeks (September 12, 2004).

X360 comparisons: After 208 weeks, X360 is where GCN was at 21.8 (+0.2) weeks (February 9, 2002), where PS3 was at 43.6 (+0.2) weeks (September 6, 2007), and where Wii was at 6.3 (+0.0) weeks (January 9, 2007).

PS3 comparisons: After 160 weeks, PS3 is where PS2 was at 61.8 (+0.7) weeks (May 4, 2001), where PSP was at 89.9 (+1.2) weeks (August 26, 2006), where GCN was at 223.7 (+2.3) weeks (December 23, 2005), and where Wii was at 52.7 (+0.5) weeks (November 30, 2007).

Wii comparisons: After 157 weeks, Wii is where GBA was at 105.4 (+0.2) weeks (March 26, 2003), where DS was at 80.8 (+0.2) weeks (June 17, 2006), where PS2 was at 127.1 (+0.6) weeks (August 4, 2002), and where PSP was at 175.4 (+0.6) weeks (April 15, 2008).

PSPgo comparisons: After 5 weeks, PSPgo is where GBm was at 0.4 (+0.0) weeks (September 14, 2005).

How the hell did PS3 manage 50k this week amidst the return of the Wii? o_0

Different types of consumers attracted to HD megamachines and 2D platformers?

 

[TheRagnCajun]

Different types of consumers attracted to HD megamachines and 2D platformers?

I'd chalk it up to FFXIII anticipation.

 

[DR2K]

Its more exaggeration then using strong language, YOY is going to be down that much is obvious and nobody is really refuting that (or has been for the last few months)

But dropping the price $50 and throwing out NSMB is hardly drastic, yet the results are changing.

Drastic would be $100 price drop or packing something like WSR in and dropping the price $50, neither of which had to happen.

The 360 is also not seeing much growth, MS reported 2x its previous week for BF which was most likely shitty sales to begin with.

About the only thing right in your view on things was the PS3 growth, and Sony should be commended for turning that around.

Even with the drop it's still down from last year significantly, to the point where they're slowing down production. I don't know if NSMB will do anything in the west for HW, but we'll see.

 

[Culex]

Well I certainly was wrong about Wii only selling 75k! I guess the Japanese REALLY DO love their 2D Mario!

 

[schuelma]

Even with the drop it's still down from last year significantly, to the point where they're slowing down production. I don't know if NSMB will do anything in the west for HW, but we'll see.

Unless you expected the Wii to sell at a completely unprecedented pace for its entire history, this slowing of demand was very very predictable and does not mean the Wii is about to start being outsold by the other 2 consoles.

There is a middle ground

 

[Vinci]

Even with the drop it's still down from last year significantly, to the point where they're slowing down production. I don't know if NSMB will do anything in the west for HW, but we'll see.

It's pretty reasonable to slow down production when you go from selling 'Good God WTF NPD's Charts Don't Even Count That High' levels to merely PS2 levels.

 

[shinshero]

It will be funny to watch. I expect a ridiculously negative article on Bloomberg and the like by tomorrow about Wii's November 2009 sales compared to 2008, which were just unprecedented..and then these analysts will have whiplash in December when all of a sudden 2009 sales are most likely ahead of 2008.

To be fair though, their articles are aimed at shareholders etc.. And a year on year decline, no matter how significant current sales are, usually lead to a decline in stock value.

 

[DR2K]

Unless you expected the Wii to sell at a completely unprecedented pace for its entire history, this slowing of demand was very very predictable and does not mean the Wii is about to start being outsold by the other 2 consoles.

There is a middle ground

I see massive decrease for one and increase for the others. I'd say it's fairly reasonable to expect one of the HD consoles to outsell the Wii.

 

[schuelma]

I see massive decrease for one and increase for the others. I'd say it's fairly reasonable to expect one of the HD consoles to outsell the Wii.

I guess we'll find out in less than an hour if you are right.

You won't be, by the way.

 

[jman2050]

I see massive decrease for one and increase for the others. I'd say it's fairly reasonable to expect one of the HD consoles to outsell the Wii.

You're not very good at this whole counting numbers business, are you.

 

[cvxfreak]

Man, DR2K's posts are getting more and more painful to read.

 

[markatisu]

I see massive decrease for one and increase for the others. I'd say it's fairly reasonable to expect one of the HD consoles to outsell the Wii.

Not when the increase is because you had shit levels the year before, if it were neck and neck the prior year I agree it would not be unreasonable to expect that to happen, but that was not the case in any region

 

[gkryhewy]

It will be funny to watch. I expect a ridiculously negative article on Bloomberg and the like by tomorrow about Wii's November 2009 sales compared to 2008, which were just unprecedented..and then these analysts will have whiplash in December when all of a sudden 2009 sales are most likely ahead of 2008.

Oh imagine the hilarity in February/March, when every month is a YOY increase. They'll be shitting themselves.... and yet it's entirely predictable :lol :lol

To be fair though, their articles are aimed at shareholders etc.. And a year on year decline, no matter how significant current sales are, usually lead to a decline in stock value.

And I will say, as I say whenever anyone posts this, that Nintendo shares are already worth less than they were before the Wii launched. Believe me, I know [grumble grumble].

 

[schuelma]

Man, DR2K's posts are getting more and more painful to read.

Hey he got a tag out of it!


On another note, how do you think ToG and FF13 are going to do compared to our expectations? Judging from your post from yesterday it looks like the ToG bundles aren't doing very well. I'm still undecided on FF13. Part of me thinks its going to do 1.5m first week, another part of me thinks it will do something like 1.2m.

 

[Vdragoon]

I see massive decrease for one and increase for the others. I'd say it's fairly reasonable to expect one of the HD consoles to outsell the Wii.

good lord, stop posting garbage without any sort of evidence that leads you to that conclusion. you don't deserve that avatar.

 

[Vinci]

Man, DR2K's posts are getting more and more painful to read.

Oh, c'mon, it's reasonable...

If you remove all context, increasing is better than decreasing.

 

[thestopsign]

I see massive decrease for one and increase for the others. I'd say it's fairly reasonable to expect one of the HD consoles to outsell the Wii.

I'd be surprised if another home console is with in 400k of the Wii this November.

 

[gkryhewy]

Oh, c'mon, it's reasonable...

If you remove all context, increasing is better than decreasing.

Do you write for Bloomberg? I love your work.

 

[nli10]

Tetris Wii.

Brain Training: Family Edition Wii.

Play Brain Training on your DSi (or download play on old DS) and upload the scores back to your Wii when you get home and then take the days Brain Quiz. Scores go together to make a high score table of Brain Fitness to show who went up and down the most compared to last time they played from all the people in your Wii friends list - even people that don't have the game can download the Wii Brain Training Board WiiChannel to see how their friends are doing and try a DS based demo.


The only reason this doesn't exist? They don't need it yet.

I'd say it probably comes with the VitMeter for next summer and instead of logging in you just scan your finger.

 

[Souldriver]

I guess we'll find out in less than an hour if you are right.

You won't be, by the way.

Wait, NPD is tonight?


This day will have an upside after all.

 

[schuelma]

Wait, NPD is tonight?


This day will have an upside after all.

34 minutes

 

[DR2K]

good lord, stop posting garbage without any sort of evidence that leads you to that conclusion. you don't deserve that avatar.

Sales decline and increases are all well documented. I'm not writing this shit in stone it's just a prediction. :lol

I'd be surprised if another home console is with in 400k of the Wii this November.

For BF there was only a 100k difference between PS3 and Wii, and MS apparently doubled up from last year. Whatever that means.

Hey he got a tag out of it!

Damn right, I just wish it weren't so freaking long. :lol

Man, DR2K's posts are getting more and more painful to read.

Don't read them?

 

[charlequin]

I'd say it's fairly reasonable to expect one of the HD consoles to outsell the Wii.

We have at this point established that if it's your expectation it's pretty much definitely not reasonable.

I guess we'll find out in less than an hour if you are right.

You won't be, by the way.

:lol

 

[ZeoVGM]

That's exactly what I'm saying.

Uh.. Except that's not what you said.

This:

Wii used to go from easily outselling both consoles combined to barely outselling even 1. In the NPD anyways.

Is not this:

The Wii has had a pretty significant year on year decline.

And what you originally said is factually incorrect.

 

[BishopLamont]

I see massive decrease for one and increase for the others. I'd say it's fairly reasonable to expect one of the HD consoles to outsell the Wii.

Not when the massive decrease is from a massive number and the small increase is from a small number.

Wii used to go from easily outselling both consoles combined to barely outselling even 1. In the NPD anyways, this is media create. It's still going down worldwide, and the other 2 consoles continue to see growth. My original point still stands. Now I'm surprised at the hardware bump for NSMB, because even WSR and Wiifitplus couldn't achieve that.

When was the last time you saw an NPD month? You expected two pseudo sequels/expansions to do more for hardware than a brand new 2D-fucking-mario? k.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

How did this become pre-NPD thread? :lol

I see massive decrease for one and increase for the others.

NPD 2008 to 2009 comparisons, January-October
Wii: -24.4%
PS360: + 0.1%

 

[Souldriver]

How did this become pre-NPD thread? :lol


NPD 2008 to 2009 comparisons, January-October
Wii: -24.4%
PS360: + 0.1%

He's just talking about the Wii not selling gazillions and the surge of the PS3, but he's not measuring his words to stand the test of SalesAge.

 

[Nirolak]

How did this become pre-NPD thread? :lol

Better yet, why are there no 500 errors?

 

[schuelma]

Better yet, why are there no 500 errors?

don't jinx it!

 

[BishopLamont]

JJS I think your avatar needs an update...we're way past "Nintendo is artificially creating shortage", considering its doomed status.

schuelma

Too late. :lol

 

[schuelma]

Hey DR2K the NPD's are up

 

[apujanata]

I see massive decrease for one and increase for the others. I'd say it's fairly reasonable to expect one of the HD consoles to outsell the Wii.

NPD Nov 2009 :
Wii 1.26M
Xbox 360 819.5K
PlayStation 3 710.4K

Ouch. I predicted that PS3 > X360.