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Media Create Sales: Oct 12-18, 2009

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
onken said:
Of course the hand helds and home console markets are closely related, but to pretend they are have no differences is simply not realistic.
History has shown that Japan every generation chooses the winner who takes the lion share of harware and software. if you think handhelds and home consoles belong to different categories what's the reason that consoles struggle in front of DS since they don't compete directly to it?
 
onken said:
Of course the hand helds and home console markets are closely related, but to pretend they are have no differences is simply not realistic.
Yeah and every console and handheld each have differences....and what? They all compete in the same market. To think the Wii has competition now and not the year before is just laughable.
 
Either I lost a sinobi update about first day sales thanks to a ram-hungry virus, or I think he ignored it.

Anyway, pretty sad Antiphona numbers. A Disgaea 1 port sells >150k on PSP, yet this new game does this bad. Oh well, at least Koei Musou port #45612351 didn't do anywhere as hot as the Orochi Musou ports.

AranhaHunter said:
Does anyone know how the old PrideFC games on PS2 did?I would like to compare them with UFC 2009.
Pride FC Fighting Championships?
http://garaph.info/softwareindividual.php//gid/1413
1413+-+PRIDE+-+PS2


There's a Pride GP from Capcom too, but it might be different genre.
 

onken

Member
Chris1964 said:
History has shown that Japan every generation chooses the winner who takes the lion share of harware and software. if you think handhelds and home consoles belong to different categories what's the reason that consoles struggle in front of DS since they don't compete directly to it?

I didn't say they're not competing, I said the markets had differences.

BishopLamont said:
Yeah and every console and handheld each have differences....and what? They all compete in the same market. To think the Wii has competition now and not the year before is just laughable.

Pretending that a viable competitor effectively entering the market will have no effect on existing system's sales is laughable. Regardless of Wii's sales are this holiday, do you seriously think that they wouldn't be higher if the PS3 was still in the situation it was last year?
 

gerg

Member
onken said:
Pretending that a viable competitor effectively entering the market will have no effect on existing system's sales is laughable. Regardless of Wii's sales are this holiday, do you seriously think that they wouldn't be higher if the PS3 was still in the situation it was last year?

Actually... yes? It all depends on the market to whom the Wii would theoretically sell. I don't have a hard time believing that anyone looking to buy a Wii for, say, NSMB Wii would have never considered buying a PS3, last year or this year. Of course, we don't live in a world of perfect absolutes, and so it wouldn't surprise me if the Wii's sales were ever so slightly dampened by the recent success of the PS3. However, any significant underperformance of the Wii is more likely to have been caused by a simple lack of success by software (or, perhaps more directly, by Nintendo) to generate interest in the Wii, rather than any interest for it moving onto a different platform of choice.

(This line of reasoning is also partially why I don't think the PS3's resurgence is of a very real or significant threat to the Wii, but that's a matter for a different time and discussion.)
 
Okay, lunatic post of the week ahead.

I'm always annoyed at the Pawapuro series. 15-year-tradition lost this year when Konami decided to rename the PS2/Wii game 2009 and Next instead of Pawapuro 16.

But it is more annoying how the very first Pawapuro number that we have is from Pawapuro 3 on the Super Nintendo. Obviously they didn't start with 3. All the Pawapuro data can be seen at YSO, look for 実況パワフルプロ野球:
http://www.kyoto.zaq.ne.jp/dkbkq103/yso/maintitle5/konami.htm

They started with Jikkyou Powerful Pro Yakyuu '94 and in 1995 Jikkyou Powerful Pro Yakyuu 2 which went on till Pawapuro 15 on PS2/Wii in 2008.

So while trying to find some data for those I noticed that the second game chronologically that we have data is PS Jikkyou Powerful Pro Yakyuu '96 Kaimakuban at 147,620. However upon reading 1996 Top100, I noticed it isn't a PS game, it is a Super Nintendo title, look at #88:
http://homepage2.nifty.com/~NOV/t1996tsd.html

Went to gamefaqs, and they agree there was no 96 Kaimakuban on PS:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/search/index.html?game=Jikkyou+Powerful+Pro+Yakyuu&platform=6&s=s
But there were both a 95 edition and a 95 Kaimakuban. Then jumps to 97 Kaimakuban and lots more. YSO labels 96-K wrong.

So, pre-1996 Pawapuro 3, which marks the first title we have data from this series, we don't have any data for:
Code:
SNES Jikkyou Powerful Pro Yakyuu '94	        Konami	SHVC-YX	        03/11/94
PS   Jikkyou Powerful Pro Yakyuu '95	        Konami	SLPS-00016	12/22/94
SNES Jikkyou Powerful Pro Yakyuu 2	        Konami	SHVC-AP2J	02/24/95
PS   Jikkyou Powerful Pro Yakyuu '95 Kaimakuban	Konami	SLPS-00067	07/14/95
SAT  Jikkyou Powerful Pro Yakyuu '95 Kaimakuban	Konami	T-9502G (VS001)	07/28/95
Yeah, even Saturn. So I had to check the little data available from 1994 and 1995 to see if there was anything about them.
http://homepage2.nifty.com/~NOV/top301994.html
http://homepage2.nifty.com/~NOV/top301995.html

And we get possibly the only data for the very first Pawapuro, a month after its launch, #10, SNES Jikkyou Powerful Pro Yakyuu '94, 1,944 points (Famitsu old tracking method).

More lucky with the PS Pawapuro 95, in a two-week report covering 12/19 to 1/1, launch included, it was #12 with 16,385 points, extrapolated with a 3,65 factor to 59,805 units sold.

We would still see this one appear two times more (one and two), giving us a total of 90,294 units sold as of 15th January 1995.

However the reports from that day to 25th September are missing, making it impossible to know what the 3 Pawapuro released in 1995 did.

But at least I now know one bit about the very first Pawapuro, and quite a bit about the second ever. And I could also say that I don't know anything about the third, fourth and fifth, but learned that the first one we had data is actually the sixth Pawapuro.
 

onken

Member
gerg said:
Actually... yes? It all depends on the market to whom the Wii would theoretically sell. I don't have a hard time believing that anyone looking to buy a Wii for, say, NSMB Wii would have never considered buying a PS3, last year or this year. Of course, we don't live in a world of perfect absolutes, and so it wouldn't surprise me if the Wii's sales were ever so slightly dampened by the recent success of the PS3. However, any significant underperformance of the Wii is more likely to have been caused by a simple lack of success by software (or, perhaps more directly, by Nintendo) to generate interest in the Wii, rather than any interest for it moving onto a different platform of choice.

(This line of reasoning is also partially why I don't think the PS3's resurgence is of a very real or significant threat to the Wii, but that's a matter for a different time and discussion.)

As last year clearly showed, people didn't need one particular big piece of software to run out and buy the Wii in droves. There's nothing to suggest that people weren't just in the market for a home console, weighed up the choice between Wii and PS3 and mostly went with Wii. That choice is going to be nowhere near as clear-cut as it was last year.
 

gerg

Member
onken said:
As last year clearly showed, people didn't need one particular big piece of software to run out and buy the Wii in droves. There's nothing to suggest that people weren't just in the market for a home console, weighed up the choice between Wii and PS3 and mostly went with Wii. That choice is going to be nowhere near as clear-cut as it was last year.

I don't think it's fair to suggest that because someone bought a Wii, they necessarily decided to do so over buying a PS3. It's not that simple, and one can't simply say that people are necessarily in the market for a "home console".
 

onken

Member
gerg said:
I don't think it's fair to suggest that because someone bought a Wii, they necessarily decided to do so over buying a PS3. It's not that simple, and one can't simply say that people are necessarily in the market for a "home console".

Well I guess time will tell. Wii should see a significant improvement over last year's numbers due to a vastly improved software line-up, if as you say, the PS3 has no influence.
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
onken said:
Well I guess time will tell. Wii should see a significant improvement over last year's numbers due to a vastly improved software line-up, if as you say, the PS3 has no influence.


Ok, if that's what you believe, what do you think Wii will sell? 300K? 400K? Same as last year?
 

onken

Member
schuelma said:
Way to go out on a limb there.

That's only a range of 530 - 630k (taking last figures for the 5 biggest weeks over Dec/Early Jan). That's pretty freaking specific.
 

onken

Member
Ah sorry I meant within 20% above last year's figures, I don't think it will go under last year's figures, as I've said previously. So again, 530k - 630k for the 5 big weeks.
 

apujanata

Member
cvxfreak said:
[WII] Resident Evil (Best Price!) (Capcom)
[WII] Resident Evil 0 (Best Price!) (Capcom)

lawl

I was wondering when these would show up.

How much is the best price version and standard version of those game ? IIRC, the standard version is around 3000 Yen, but I am not sure.
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
onken said:
Ah sorry I meant within 20% above last year's figures, I don't think it will go under last year's figures, as I've said previously. So again, 530k - 630k for the 5 big weeks.


That makes a lot more sense :)

I'm thinking 625K myself.
 

donny2112

Member
onken said:
Ah sorry I meant within 20% above last year's figures, I don't think it will go under last year's figures, as I've said previously. So again, 530k - 630k for the 5 big weeks.

Edit:
Nevermind. The fifth week I was using the PSP's number. :(
 
onken said:
Pretending that a viable competitor effectively entering the market will have no effect on existing system's sales is laughable. Regardless of Wii's sales are this holiday, do you seriously think that they wouldn't be higher if the PS3 was still in the situation it was last year?
Uh I never said the Slim would have no effect on the Wii, on the contrary you were the one acting as if the Wii had no competition last year and suddenly has competition now because of the Slim. It's not as extreme as you put it, yes the Wii has more competition due to the Slim but it's not a big shift like you make it out. The PSP and DS is more competition to the Wii then the PS3 will ever be.
 

onken

Member
BishopLamont said:
Uh I never said the Slim would have no effect on the Wii, on the contrary you were the one acting as if the Wii had no competition last year and suddenly has competition now because of the Slim.

I was obviously not seriously suggesting that the Wii had "no competition" last year. It was a tongue in cheek comment reflecting on the PS3 making leaps and bounds since last year, but surprise surprise somebody just had to jump to the offensive.

It's not as extreme as you put it, yes the Wii has more competition due to the Slim but it's not a big shift like you make it out. The PSP and DS is more competition to the Wii then the PS3 will ever be.

We'll see.
 

cvxfreak

Member
apujanata said:
How much is the best price version and standard version of those game ? IIRC, the standard version is around 3000 Yen, but I am not sure.

¥4190 -> ¥3140

Not a huge discount, but it should sell a few extra copies of both games.
 
onken said:
Pretending that a viable competitor effectively entering the market will have no effect on existing system's sales is laughable.

No, it's really not. Historical evidence strongly points towards competition being quite a bit less important to any given console's sales than it's own performance -- we rarely see meaningful trends arise where one console's downtick closely mirrors the increasing success of another system, probably because most consumers are making yes/no decisions about one specific console rather than A/B decisions between two different systems.

With the Wii and PS3 in particular, I think they probably have close to the least overlapping markets of any two home consoles ever and there are probably close to zero people in Japan who ever make a decision of the form "do I buy a Wii this week... or a PS3?" There are effectively zero overlapping software titles and very few genres even in which the two can effectively compete -- I'm extremely hard-pressed to imagine the system where someone is actually having uncertainty deciding which to buy.
 

AFreak

Banned
Think will ever see a FIFA outsell PES in Japan within our lifetime? It's weird because FIFA has been the footie game to beat for a long time coming now but it still gets trounced in overall sales.
 

gerg

Member
Truespeed said:
Looks like the PS3 will be the top selling console in Japan for 2009. Welcome to the HD Era, Japan.

These posts mock themselves, without requiring anyone else to do so.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
Jokeropia said:
That's what I meant.
Ok :)


Jokeropia said:
Just like the impression I got, Uncharted 2's drop was on the high side.
Yep, Uncharted 2's percentage increase from the first day to the first week is indeed lower than several of other western games indeed, that is true.


Jokeropia said:
Thanks for tracking down the data.
No problem :)


Jokeropia said:
The only error you've done as I can see (I won't go through all the numbers) is that you've calculated the percentages backwards. That is, instead of the percentages for how the first week sales are higher than the first day sales you have the percentages for how the first day sales were lower than the first week sales.

For example, Halo 3's increase from 45k to 61k was an increase of 35.6% rather than 26.4%. (45 * 1.356 = 61.)

Ah yes, my mistake, sorry :\ I have recalculated the percentage now and edited my previous post with the correct percentages. Thanks for mentioning this! :)

I also forgot to add Resistance 2 to my previous post.

Resistance 2: 20,000 to 35,182 = 75.9%


Jokeropia said:
No, but it does suggest that NBA2K 10 is less frontloaded than Uncharted 2. That's what the discussion originated from.
I can only speak for myself, but when i see a high percentage increase and no actual sales numbers, then my first impression for about 1 second might be that something sold great because of the high percentage increase. For example if i see something like "game A increased 200% in sales while game B increased 10% in sales", then my first impression might be that "game A" sold more than "game B". But of course, i know that percetage increase alone doesnt tell how much something have sold, so it is not like i belive that "game A" sold the most just because it had a higher percentage increase. It is just that my first impression for about 1 second or so might be that the game sold good. I dont know why i am like this, but i guess it comes from back in the days when i didnt really followed sales number that much.

I also think that percetange increases alone are used sometimes to make sales look better. For example, Sony said something like that the PSP sales increased 300% when the PSP Go came out, which might give the impression that the PSP sales were great, at least in my opinion. But without sales numbers, it's hard to know how good the sales were, all we know is that it was an increase. And since they didnt give out any real sales numbers, this might be an indication that the sales werent that good afterall. Sony isnt the only one who only mention percentages when it comes to sales though, but this example regarding the PSP sales increase is the most recent example that i can think of where percentage only were used.

It is true that NBA2K 10 was less frontloaded compared to Uncharted 2 when you look at the percentage increase as you say, but i was mostly interested in seeing how many copies of Uncharted 2 that were sold after the first day and to see how this compared to other western games instead of seeing the percentage increase :) Because even that NBA2K 10 was less frontloaded compared to Uncharted 2 when it comes to the percetage increase, NBA2K 10 sold less than Uncharted 2. When it comes to sales, what is most important, percentage increase or how many copies that were sold?


Jokeropia said:
It's like I said in my first post, the game still had a great first week compared to the original, but it just wasn't quite as great as the first day numbers hinted at.
How much did the first number hinted at that Uncharted 2 would sell the first week?

Maybe i am reading too much into this, but i get the feeling that there is more focus on that Uncharted 2 wasnt as frontloaded (when it comes to percentage increase) compared to other western games in Japan instead of having more focus on how good it actually sold? Come to think of it, unless i am mistaken i think that Uncharted 2 actually has one of the highest first week sales in Japan this generation when it comes to western games.

Why does it matter if Uncharted 2 is a bit less frontloaded than other western games? Is it about seeing how Uncharted 2 will keep on selling? Since Uncharted 2 percentage increase from the first day sales to the first week sales was lower compared to other wester games, that this will be an indication that Uncharted 2 will sell poorly in the upcoming weeks? If yes, not many western games have really had any legs (legs as in selling decent numbers for many weeks in a row) in Japan so far (at least from what i know, but please correct me if i am wrong), so will Uncharted 2 be any expection to this?

Isnt the LTD what matters the most? If a game sells 100k in total, how much does it matter if it takes 2 week or 20 weeks to sell 100k as long as the LTD ends up being the same? These are all honest questions, i am curious about these things :)


I dont have any problems with people saying that Uncharted 2 is being less fronloaded compared to other western games, this is afterall the case when we talk about percentage increase. So i am agreeing to what you are saying. It was just the way that it is written that i noticed the most. To take an example, in my opinion it would be something similar to say this to your girlfriend if she comes home from the beauty parlor: "You look really great, but concidering that you spent $200 i would have thought that you would looked better". Eventhough that it was mentioned that she looked really good, the whole sentence in itself doesnt exactly sound too positive, at least in my opinion.

If the sentence was written the other way around, something like: "Uncharted 2 was less fronloaded than other western games, but it still sold great", i dont think that i would have noticed it that much, since then the focus of the sentence seems to be a bit more on that Uncharted 2 sold great rather than having more focus on that it was less frontloaded, at least in my opinion :)

But as said, maybe i am reading too much into this and i dont mean any disrespect towards anyone just to underline that, but this is just the way that i understood what was written. Instead of having more focus on how good Uncharted 2 actually sold, it seemed to me that there was a bit more focus that it was less frontloaded than other western games, so i just wanted to ask why it was more focus on Uncharted 2 being less frontloaded instead on having more focus on how good it sold :) Why not discuss more about how good Uncharted 2 actually sold instead? :) This is how i understood what was written at least, but please correct me if i have missunderstood something that was written.

I am sorry for that this post became so long :( It is just that i had much that i wanted to ask about and write about, i hope that it is ok :)

EDIT: I added some text.
 
So next week we have the showdown: Bayonetta vs Tekken 6 vs FF Gaiden 4 WoL vs Persona 3 Portable. Lurking YSO guys predictions, it could be anything, since Bayonetta PS3, Tekken 6 PS3, FF Gaiden and P3P are all on the 100-150k range.

Just how funny would it be if P3P came out on top despite launching on Saturday? 11 out of the 24 YSO guys have P3P over the other releases.
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
Kurosaki Ichigo said:
So next week we have the showdown: Bayonetta vs Tekken 6 vs FF Gaiden 4 WoL vs Persona 3 Portable. Lurking YSO guys predictions, it could be anything, since Bayonetta PS3, Tekken 6 PS3, FF Gaiden and P3P are all on the 100-150k range.

Just how funny would it be if P3P came out on top despite launching on Saturday? 11 out of the 24 YSO guys have P3P over the other releases.


My instinct is for P3P to come out on top, followed by PS3 Bayonetta.
 

Road

Member
Comgnet pre-order ranking:
Code:
10/18

[PSP] Persona 3 Portable	153pt
[PS3] Bayonetta			143pt
[PS3] Tekken 6			135pt
[360] Bayonetta 		38pt
[NDS] Final Fantasy Gaiden	34pt

10/25

[PS3] Bayonetta			177pt (+34)
[PSP] Persona 3 Portable	175pt (+22)
[PS3] Tekken 6			159pt (+24)
[360] Bayonetta 		52pt  (+14)
[NDS] Final Fantasy Gaiden	51pt  (+17)
Funny how Bayonetta PS3 and 360 have the biggest and smallest gains respectively, despite the recent Famitsu review.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
Road said:
Funny how Bayonetta PS3 and 360 have the biggest and smallest gains respectively, despite the recent Famitsu review.
What was it about, that the Xbox 360 version were better than the PS3 version?
 

onken

Member
schuelma said:
What do you think PS3 will do?

I think it can do 450-500k

Road said:
Funny how Bayonetta PS3 and 360 have the biggest and smallest gains respectively, despite the recent Famitsu review.

PS3 version still got 38/40 dude, and who's going to buy a 360 for the sake of 2 points?
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
onken said:
I think it can do 450-500k


Just for a bit of perspective, it did 149K last year in the 4 full weeks of December.
 
While I'm certain Bayonetta will sell well, but doesn't 428 Wii's perfect score prove that a perfect score doesn't automatically mean it'll be a hit? What was up with that anyway? o_O
 

onken

Member
schuelma said:
Just for a bit of perspective, it did 149K last year in the 4 full weeks of December.

5 biggest weeks... it did 209k. And yeah I think it can double that this year (it sure as hell better), plus maybe a bit of change.

Hero of Legend said:
While I'm certain Bayonetta will sell well, but doesn't 428 Wii's perfect score prove that a perfect score doesn't automatically mean it'll be a hit? What was up with that anyway? o_O

Meh, those interactive graphic novels are never going set the world on fire, especially on home consoles.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
onken said:
PS3 version still got 38/40 dude, and who's going to buy a 360 for the sake of 2 points?
Why did the PS3 version get 2 points less, because of slowdowns in the game? I read something about slowdowns in the Bayonetta PS3 demo that was shown at Tokyo Game Show this year at least.


Hero of Legend said:
While I'm certain Bayonetta will sell well, but doesn't 428 Wii's perfect score prove that a perfect score doesn't automatically mean it'll be a hit? What was up with that anyway? o_O
Yep, high review scores doesnt always mean high sales indeed. I guess it depends on which genre the game(s) is. I guess that 428 is a game in a game genre that isnt that popular, which ment that the game didnt sell really high numbers even with a perfect review score in Famitsu, unfortunately :\

EDIT: I see now that onken had already replied to this :)
 

Bebpo

Banned
Kurosaki Ichigo said:
Anyway, pretty sad Antiphona numbers. A Disgaea 1 port sells >150k on PSP, yet this new game does this bad. Oh well, at least Koei Musou port #45612351 didn't do anywhere as hot as the Orochi Musou ports.

How have previous Marl Kingdom games sold there? For instance, how did the Marl Kingdom/Rhapsody DS port sell? I was under the impression the series isn't particularly good.

The famitsu score which was really, really low (between 25-28 IIRC) probably didn't help. I lost all interest in the game after it scored that badly.
 
It's a shame Eldar Saga didn't do more than it did, I honestly thought it would've appealed to the MH crowd as it's like a mix of MH and Phantasy Star Online, it's even got free online co-op. :/

I guess it's because it's REALLY bad, it's been getting 2-3's in reviews lately. Shame.

I still want to try it and give it my own fair opinion. Obviously doesn't help that all of MMV's Wii games are over 7000 Yen. It's $39.99 in the US and $44.99 in Canada.
 

onken

Member
test_account said:
Why did the PS3 version get 2 points less, because of slowdowns in the game? I read something about slowdowns in the Bayonetta PS3 demo that was shown at Tokyo Game Show this year at least.

Yeah it was just performance related issues.
 

Jokeropia

Member
test_account said:
Maybe i am reading too much into this, but i get the feeling that there is more focus on that Uncharted 2 wasnt as frontloaded (when it comes to percentage increase) compared to other western games in Japan instead of having more focus on how good it actually sold?
I really can't help you with that. Frillen made a comment that Uncharted 2 had an unusually small growth from first day to first week. I thought it was a valid point to make (I still do) and the data actually supports it, but you seemingly have a problem with that.
test_account said:
If yes, not many western games have really had any legs (legs as in selling decent numbers for many weeks in a row) in Japan so far
Uncharted 1 kinda did. Yes, sequels are generally more frontloaded, but there are plenty of examples where they have legs like their predecessors so it's not like it's a foregone conclusion.
test_account said:
How much did the first number hinted at that Uncharted 2 would sell the first week?
More? Just as an example, say it would've experienced the same growth as the original from first day to first week, that is ~89% for a first week number of ~89k. Now we would've been looking at a significantly higher probable LTD.
 
Bebpo said:
How have previous Marl Kingdom games sold there? For instance, how did the Marl Kingdom/Rhapsody DS port sell? I was under the impression the series isn't particularly good.

The famitsu score which was really, really low (between 25-28 IIRC) probably didn't help. I lost all interest in the game after it scored that badly.
Garaph doesn't list the DS port so I guess it came out of the top30.

The original PS version is hard to track too but in its first week it did 23,560, 11 years ago that is.
http://homepage2.nifty.com/~NOV/d527.html

The PS Marl 2 did 16,983 in its first week, in 1999.
http://homepage2.nifty.com/~NOV/d575.html

Couldn't find the PS2 2000 Marl title.
 
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